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At least 667 records · Page 37
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Final report: Insights from ARM observations into aerosol processing and transport by extratropical cyclones and aerosol effects on cyclone clouds

This project advanced understanding of aerosol–cloud interactions in extratropical cyclones using observations from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) observatory and ACE-ENA field campaigns, along with satellite datasets and numerical modeling. We have quantified the susceptibility of frontal clouds to aerosols, showing that this susceptibility is similar to that in non-frontal clouds despite substantial (factor 2) differences in droplet concentrations between these cloud types, and also significant differences in cloud albedo. A key finding was that Aitken-mode (here, 60-100nm diameter) aerosols play a disproportionately important role in droplet activation in frontal clouds, and concentrations of these particles are frequently strongly biased in climate models. Activation of aerosols depends strongly on updraft speeds, and via collaboration with Argonne National Laboratory we contributed to quantifying these better with the ARM radar wind profiler at the ENA site. Our studies in the North Atlantic have analogs in the Southern Ocean, and to draw these out we examined data from the MARCUS and SOCRATES field campaigns. We identified new particle formation within extratropical cyclones as a potentially important source of cloud condensation nuclei in these pristine marine environments. By combining ARM observations with perturbed parameter ensemble simulations, we demonstrated that surface observations can effectively constrain aerosol–cloud adjustments and reduce uncertainty in simulated cloud liquid water path responses by approximately 15%, yielding stronger constraints on historical aerosol cooling effects. The work further established precipitation processes as a dominant control on aerosol–cloud interactions and Earth system predictability.

Gordon, Hamish [Department of Chemical Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2025

Where do the fish go in winter? A year of observing seasonal changes in Sequim Bay’s nearshore fish community

The use of environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling has been proposed as a complementary method to monitor fish species in marine environments. eDNA offers a non-invasive, cost-effective, and scalable way to detect aquatic species. It is appealing in environments where traditional methods are limited by access or visibility, especially in complex or sensitive habitats such as tidal channels and other marine energy sites. Before eDNA can be fully relied upon, we must verify its accuracy against established methods, like underwater photography. In this study, we collected eDNA samples and concurrently deployed a 360-degree camera near the floating dock of PNNL-Sequim in the tidal channel of Sequim Bay once a month for twelve consecutive months. During deployments, the camera remained on the seafloor for several hours overlapping slack tide and captured time-lapse photographs at ten second intervals. Counts and identifications of fish species observed in the images were used to calculate monthly Shannon diversity and Pielou evenness indices. These values were compared across the months using a Kruskal-Wallis test paired with a Conover-Iman post-hoc test. Cliff’s Delta was also calculated to quantify the effect size of the monthly differences. No fish were observed from December through April, likely due to seasonal behavior changes within the local fish community. Fish returned to the shoreline in May, with the greatest diversity and evenness recorded in September. These findings reveal substantial seasonal variation in nearshore fish communities. Many monthly comparisons were found to contain statistically significant differences within the diversity and evenness, and even more were found to have large effect sizes, signifying large ecological changes throughout the seasons. The absence of fish observed during the winter months is a key outcome of this survey that will hopefully be reflected in the eDNA results still to come, which would help validate the eDNA approach.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mid-Atlantic Turbulence Intensity Data in Observational Space

The dataset archives observed and model-simulated turbulence intensity and meteorological profiles and timeseries at the Air-Sea Interaction Tower (ASIT) of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution’s Martha’s Vineyard Coastal Observatory (MVCO). The observational data were measured by lidar and buoy deployed at ASIT. The simulated profiles and timeseries data are interpolated in time and/or space according to observations. Simulations were carried out for the mid-Atlantic region using the revised Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.2 that incorporates the implementation of online turbulence intensity (TI) calculations (Tai et al. 2023). The simulated atmospheric profiles at the Shell Exploration and Production Corporation's Tension Leg Platforms Ursa and Mars are archived. Physics parameterizations chosen for the simulations include the Thompson microphysics parameterization, Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi Niino (MYNN) boundary layer parameterization, Mellor-Yamada-Janjic surface layer parameterization, Unified Noah land-surface parameterization, and the RRTMG longwave and shortwave radiation parameterization. Initial and boundary conditions are taken from NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) product. The JPL 0.01-degree Level 4 Multiscale Ultrahigh Resolution (MUR) Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Analysis (V4.1) data are used as the model’s SST forcing.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Observationally driven Resource Assessment with CoupLEd models (ORACLE)

This project seeks to carry out a multifaceted analysis combining buoy observations, machine learning, turbulence, satellite data and high-resolution modeling. Our analyses will investigate air–sea interaction physics governing the variation of the winds with height and influence of clouds, uncertainty in coupled ocean-wave-atmosphere mesoscale models to capture certain key atmospheric phenomenon observed over the U.S. West Coast, impact of climate change, and the fidelity with which resource characterization models describe the range of observed offshore wind conditions. This project will focus its efforts on characterizing and assessing the atmospheric and oceanographic conditions along the U.S. West Coast.

Wind, Energy↗
DOE OSTI2023

Surface impacts and associated mechanisms of a moisture intrusion into the Arctic observed in mid-April 2020 during MOSAiC

Distinct events of warm and moist air intrusions (WAIs) from mid-latitudes have pronounced impacts on the Arctic climate system. We present a detailed analysis of a record-breaking WAI observed during the MOSAiC expedition in mid-April 2020. By combining Eulerian with Lagrangian frameworks and using simulations across different scales, we investigate aspects of air mass transformations via cloud processes and quantify related surface impacts. The WAI is characterized by two distinct pathways, Siberian and Atlantic. A moist static energy transport across the Arctic Circle above the climatological 90th percentile is found. Observations at research vessel Polarstern show a transition from radiatively clear to cloudy state with significant precipitation and a positive surface energy balance (SEB), i.e., surface warming. WAI air parcels reach Polarstern first near the tropopause, and only 1–2 days later at lower altitudes. In the 5 days prior to the event, latent heat release during cloud formation triggers maximum diabatic heating rates in excess of 20 K d -1 . For some poleward drifting air parcels, this facilitates strong ascent by up to 9 km. Based on model experiments, we explore the role of two key cloud-determining factors. First, we test the role moisture availability by reducing lateral moisture inflow during the WAI by 30%. This does not significantly affect the liquid water path, and therefore the SEB, in the central Arctic. The cause are counteracting mechanisms of cloud formation and precipitation along the trajectory. Second, we test the impact of increasing Cloud Condensation Nuclei concentrations from 10 to 1,000 cm -3 (pristine Arctic to highly polluted), which enhances cloud water content. Resulting stronger longwave cooling at cloud top makes entrainment more efficient and deepens the atmospheric boundary layer. Finally, we show the strongly positive effect of the WAI on the SEB. This is mainly driven by turbulent heat fluxes over the ocean, but radiation over sea ice. The WAI also contributes a large fraction to precipitation in the Arctic, reaching 30% of total precipitation in a 9-day period at the MOSAiC site. However, measured precipitation varies substantially between different platforms. Therefore, estimates of total precipitation are subject to considerable observational uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Seismic Observations of the OSIRIS-REx Sample Return Capsule Reentry: Deployment, Signal Characteristics, and Wavefield Phenomenology

Controlled spacecraft reentries from interplanetary trajectories provide rare, well-characterized hypersonic sources for advancing seismoacoustic observation techniques. Here we present seismic observations of the OSIRIS-REx sample return capsule (SRC) reentry on 24 September 2023, recorded by 16 three-component nodal seismometers deployed near Eureka, Nevada, at ground distances of 7–20 km from the capsule trajectory. Air-to-ground coupled signals are detected at all stations, exhibiting impulsive onsets consistent with ballistic shock arrivals from the descending Mach cone. We characterize the seismic wavefield through signal amplitude, period, waveform cross-correlation, and array processing. Signal periods decrease systematically with increasing distance from the trajectory within the airport array, indicating that higher-frequency content becomes more prominent at greater offsets, opposite to expectations from geometric spreading and atmospheric absorption. Seismic array processing identifies frequency-dependent back-azimuth variations whose origin remains unresolved; possible contributing factors include source geometry, scattering by fine-scale layered structure in the stratosphere, and near-surface effects. These observations document a spatially complex seismic wavefield from a well-characterized hypersonic line source and provide constraints for future modeling of atmospheric propagation and air-to-ground coupling.

OSIRIS-REx↗
DOE OSTI2023

Simultaneous Measurements of Noncommuting Observables: Positive Transformations and Instrumental Lie Groups

We formulate a general program for describing and analyzing continuous, differential weak, simultaneous measurements of noncommuting observables, which focuses on describing the measuring instrument autonomously, without states. The Kraus operators of such measuring processes are time-ordered products of fundamental differential positive transformations, which generate nonunitary transformation groups that we call instrumental Lie groups. The temporal evolution of the instrument is equivalent to the diffusion of a Kraus-operator distribution function, defined relative to the invariant measure of the instrumental Lie group. This diffusion can be analyzed using Wiener path integration, stochastic differential equations, or a Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov equation. This way of considering instrument evolution we call the Instrument Manifold Program. We relate the Instrument Manifold Program to state-based stochastic master equations. We then explain how the Instrument Manifold Program can be used to describe instrument evolution in terms of a universal cover that we call the universal instrumental Lie group, which is independent not just of states, but also of Hilbert space. The universal instrument is generically infinite dimensional, in which case the instrument’s evolution is chaotic. Special simultaneous measurements have a finite-dimensional universal instrument, in which case the instrument is considered principal, and it can be analyzed within the differential geometry of the universal instrumental Lie group. Principal instruments belong at the foundation of quantum mechanics. We consider the three most fundamental examples: measurement of a single observable, position and momentum, and the three components of angular momentum. As these measurements are performed continuously, they converge to strong simultaneous measurements. For a single observable, this results in the standard decay of coherence between inequivalent irreducible representations. For the latter two cases, it leads to a collapse within each irreducible representation onto the classical or spherical phase space, with the phase space located at the boundary of these instrumental Lie groups.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian Exploration of Phenomenological EoS of Neutron/Hybrid Stars with Recent Observations

The description of the stellar interior of compact stars remains as a big challenge for the nuclear astrophysics community. The consolidated knowledge is restricted to density regions around the saturation of hadronic matter ρ 0 =2.8 × 10 14 g cm -3 , regimes where our nuclear models are successfully applied. As one moves towards higher densities and extreme conditions up to the quark/gluons deconfinement, little can be said about the microphysics of the equation of state (EoS). Here, we employ a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) strategy to access the variability at high density regions of polytropic piecewise models for neutron star (NS) EoS or possible hybrid stars, i.e., a NS with a small quark-matter core. With a fixed description of the hadronic matter for low density, below the nuclear saturation density, we explore a variety of models for the high density regimes leading to stellar masses near to 2.5 M ⊙ , in accordance with the observations of massive pulsars. The models are constrained, including the observation of the merger of neutrons stars from VIRGO-LIGO and with the pulsar observed by NICER. In addition, we also discuss the possibility of the use of a Bayesian power regression model with heteroscedastic error. The set of EoS from the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO) was used as input and treated as the data set for the testing case.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Cloud Atlas: High-precision HST/WFC3/IR Time-resolved Observations of Directly Imaged Exoplanet HD 106906b

HD 106906b is an ∼11M{sub Jup}, ∼15 Myr old directly imaged exoplanet orbiting at an extremely large distance from its host star. The wide separation (7.″11) between HD 106906b and its host star greatly reduces the difficulty in direct-imaging observations, making it one of the most favorable directly imaged exoplanets for detailed characterization. In this paper, we present HST/WFC3/IR time-resolved observations of HD 106906b in the F127M, F139M, and F153M bands. We have achieved ∼1% precision in the lightcurves in all three bands. The F127M lightcurve demonstrates marginally detectable (2.7σ significance) variability with a best-fitting period of 4 hr, while the lightcurves in the other two bands are consistent with flat lines. We construct primary-subtracted deep images and use these images to exclude additional companions to HD 106906 that are more massive than 4 M{sub Jup} and locate at projected distances of more than ∼500 au. We measure the astrometry of HD 106906b in two HST/WFC3 epochs and achieve precisions better than 2.5 mas. The position angle and separation measurements do not deviate from those in the 2004 HST/ACS/HRC images for more than 1σ uncertainty. We provide the HST/WFC3 astrometric results for 25 background stars that can be used as reference sources in future precision astrometry studies. Our observations also provide the first 1.4 μm water band photometric measurement for HD 106906b. HD 106906b’s spectral energy distribution and the best-fitting BT-Settl model have an inconsistency in the 1.4 μm water absorption band, which highlights the challenges in modeling atmospheres of young planetary-mass objects.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

The HOSTS Survey for Exozodiacal Dust: Observational Results from the Complete Survey

The Large Binocular Telescope Interferometer (LBTI) enables nulling interferometric observations across the N band (8 to 13 μm) to suppress a star’s bright light and probe for faint circumstellar emission. We present and statistically analyze the results from the LBTI/Hunt for Observable Signatures of Terrestrial Systems survey for exozodiacal dust. By comparing our measurements to model predictions based on the solar zodiacal dust in the N band, we estimate a 1σ median sensitivity of 23 zodis times the solar system dust surface density in its habitable zone (HZ; 23 zodis) for early-type stars and 48 zodis for Sun-like stars, where 1 zodi is the surface density of HZ dust in the solar system. Of the 38 stars observed, 10 show significant excess. A clear correlation of our detections with the presence of cold dust in the systems was found, but none with the stellar spectral type or age. The majority of Sun-like stars have relatively low HZ dust levels (best-fit median: 3 zodis, 1σ upper limit: 9 zodis, 95% confidence: 27 zodis based on our N band measurements), while ~20% are significantly more dusty. The solar system’s HZ dust content is consistent with being typical. Our median HZ dust level would not be a major limitation to the direct imaging search for Earth-like exoplanets, but more precise constraints are still required, in particular to evaluate the impact of exozodiacal dust for the spectroscopic characterization of imaged exo-Earth candidates.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Lyα Observations of Comet C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring) Using MAVEN IUVS Echelle

The close approach of comet C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring) to Mars in 2014 October provided a unique opportunity to observe a dynamically new Oort cloud comet with potential for interaction with a planet’s atmosphere. The water-originating hydrogen coma of the comet extended to over 20 million km from the nucleus. Determining the properties of this coma contributes to characterizing the comet’s water content and production rate. The present study analyzes a unique data set of high spectral resolution UV observations of comet C/2013 A1 Siding Spring measured by the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution spacecraft. The Siding Spring observations capture Lyα emissions from the Martian corona, the interplanetary medium, as well as the cometary H and D reservoirs. The isolated cometary spectra are analyzed to reveal a velocity distribution of H atoms that are consistent with model estimates of H{sub 2}O photodissociated H emissions and of OH photodissociated H emissions, Doppler shifted from the main comet H emission line center by 18 km s{sup −1} and 8 km s{sup −1}, respectively. The variations in comet H brightness with distance from the nucleus are used to constrain cometary water production to a rate of 0.5 × 10{sup 28} molecules s{sup −1} at a time when Siding Spring was at 1.5 au, pre-perihelion.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Commissioning the H i Observing Mode of the Beam Former for the Cryogenically Cooled Focal L-band Array for the GBT (FLAG)

We present the results of commissioning observations for a new digital beam-forming back end for the Focal plane L-band Array for the Robert C. Byrd Green Bank Telescope (FLAG), a cryogenically cooled Phased Array Feed (PAF) with the lowest measured T {sub sys}/η of any PAF outfitted on a radio telescope to date. We describe the custom software used to apply beam-forming weights to the raw element covariances to create research-quality spectral-line images for the new fine-channel mode, study the stability of the beam weights over time, characterize FLAG’s sensitivity over a frequency range of 150 MHz, and compare the measured noise properties and observed distribution of neutral hydrogen emission from several extragalactic and Galactic sources with data obtained with the current single-pixel L-band receiver. These commissioning runs establish FLAG as the preeminent PAF receiver currently available for spectral-line observations on the world’s major radio telescopes.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Breakthrough Listen Search for Intelligent Life: Searching for Technosignatures in Observations of TESS Targets of Interest

Exoplanetary systems are prime targets for the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI). With the recent uptick in the identification of candidate and confirmed exoplanets through the work of missions like the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), we are beginning to understand that Earth-like planets are common. In this work, we extend the Breakthrough Listen (BL) search for extraterrestrial intelligence to include targeted searches of stars identified by TESS as potential exoplanet hosts. We report on 113 30 minute cadence observations collected for 28 targets selected from the TESS Input Catalog from among those identified as containing signatures of transiting planets. The targets were searched for narrowband signals from 1 to 11 GHz using the turboSETI pipeline architecture modified for compatibility with the Google Cloud environment. Data were searched for drift rates of ±4 Hz s{sup −1} above a minimum signal-to-noise threshold of 10, following the parameters of previous searches conducted by Price et al. and Enriquez et al. The observations presented in this work establish some of the deepest limits to date over such a wide band (1–11 GHz) for life beyond Earth. We determine that fewer than 12.72% of the observed targets possess transmitters operating at these frequencies with an equivalent isotropic radiated power greater than our derived threshold of 4.9×10{sup 14} W.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Observations with the Differential Speckle Survey Instrument. X. Preliminary Orbits of K-dwarf Binaries and Other Stars

This paper details speckle observations of binary stars taken at the Lowell Discovery Telescope, the WIYN telescope, and the Gemini telescopes between 2016 January and 2019 September. The observations taken at Gemini and Lowell were done with the Differential Speckle Survey Instrument (DSSI), and those done at WIYN were taken with the successor instrument to DSSI at that site, the NN-EXPLORE Exoplanet Star and Speckle Imager (NESSI). In total, we present 378 observations of 178 systems, and we show that the uncertainty in the measurement precision for the combined data set is ∼2 mas in separation, ∼1°–2° in position angle depending on the separation, and ∼0.1 mag in magnitude difference. Together with data already in the literature, these new results permit 25 visual orbits and one spectroscopic-visual orbit to be calculated for the first time. In the case of the spectroscopic-visual analysis, which is done on the ternary star HD 173093, we calculate masses with a precision of better than 1% for all three stars in that system. Twenty-one of the visual orbits calculated have a K dwarf as the primary star; we add these to the known orbits of K-dwarf primary stars and discuss the basic orbital properties of these stars at this stage. Although incomplete, the data that exist so far indicate that binaries with K-dwarf primaries tend not to have low-eccentricity orbits at separations of one to a few tens of astronomical units, that is, on solar system scales.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Spectroscopic Observations of Obscured Populations in the Inner Galaxy: 2MASS-GC02, Terzan 4, and the 200 km s{sup −1} stellar peak

The interpretation of potentially new and already known stellar structures located at low latitudes is hindered by the presence of dense gas and dust, as observations toward these sight lines are limited. We have identified Apache Point Observatory Galaxy Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) stars belonging to the low-latitude globular clusters 2MASS-GC02 and Terzan 4, presenting the first chemical element abundances of stars residing in these poorly studied clusters. As expected, the signature of multiple populations coexisting in these metal-rich clusters is evident. We redetermine the radial velocity of 2MASS-GC02 to be −87 ± 7 km s{sup −1}, finding that this cluster’s heliocentric radial velocity is offset by more than 150 km s{sup −1} from the literature value. We investigate a potentially new low-latitude stellar structure and a kiloparsec-scale nuclear disk (or ring) that has been put forward to explain a high-velocity (V {sub GSR} ∼ 200 km s{sup −1}) peak reported in several Galactic bulge fields based on the APOGEE commissioning observations. New radial velocities of field stars at (l, b) = (−6°,0 °) are presented and combined with the APOGEE observations at negative longitudes to carry out this search. Unfortunately no prominent −200 km s{sup −1} peak at negative longitudes along the plane of the Milky Way are apparent, as predicted for the signature of a nuclear feature. The distances and Gaia EDR3 proper motions of the high-V {sub GSR} stars do not support the current models of stars on bar-supporting orbits as an explanation of the +200 km s{sup −1} peak.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Young and Nearby Normal Type Ia Supernova 2018gv: UV-optical Observations and the Earliest Spectropolarimetry

The nondetection of companion stars in SN Ia progenitor systems lends support to the notion of double-degenerate systems and explosions triggered by the merging of two white dwarfs. This very asymmetric process should lead to a conspicuous polarimetric signature. By contrast, observations consistently find very low continuum polarization as the signatures from the explosion process largely dominate over the pre-explosion configuration within several days. Critical information about the interaction of the ejecta with a companion and any circumstellar matter is encoded in the early polarization spectra. In this study, we obtain spectropolarimetry of SN 2018gv with the ESO Very Large Telescope at -13.6 days relative to the B-band maximum light, or ~5 days after the estimated explosion—the earliest spectropolarimetric observations to date of any SN Ia. These early observations still show a low continuum polarization (lesssim0.2%) and moderate line polarization (0.30% ± 0.04% for the prominent Si ii λ6355 feature and 0.85% ± 0.04% for the high-velocity Ca component). The high degree of spherical symmetry implied by the low-line and continuum polarization at this early epoch is consistent with explosion models of delayed detonations and is inconsistent with the merger-induced explosion scenario. Finally, the dense UV and optical photometry and optical spectroscopy within the first ~100 days after the maximum light indicate that SN 2018gv is a normal SN Ia with similar spectrophotometric behavior to SN 2011fe.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

The breakBRD Breakdown: Using IllustrisTNG to Track the Quenching of an Observationally Motivated Sample of Centrally Star-forming Galaxies

The observed breakBRD ("break bulges in red disks") galaxies are a nearby sample of face-on disk galaxies with particularly centrally concentrated star formation: they have red disks but recent star formation in their centers as measured by the D n 4000 spectral index. In this paper, we search for breakBRD analogs in the IllustrisTNG simulation and describe their history and future. We find that a small fraction (~4% at z = 0; ~1% at z = 0.5) of galaxies fulfill the breakBRD criteria, in agreement with observations. In comparison with the mass-weighted parent IllustrisTNG sample, these galaxies tend to consist of a higher fraction of satellite and splashback galaxies. However, the central, non-splashback breakBRD galaxies show similar environments, black hole masses, and merger rates, indicating that there is not a single formation trigger for inner star formation and outer quenching. We determine that breakBRD analog galaxies as a whole are in the process of quenching. The breakBRD state, with its highly centrally concentrated star formation, is uncommon in the history of either currently quiescent or star-forming galaxies; however, approximately 10% of 10 < M*/M⊙ < 10 11 quiescent galaxies at z = 0 have experienced SFR concentrations comparable to those of the breakBRDs in their past. Additionally, the breakBRD state is short lived, lasting a few hundred Myr up to ~2 Gyr. The observed breakBRD galaxies may therefore be a unique sample of outside-in quenching galaxies.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cosmic Inference: Constraining Parameters with Observations and a Highly Limited Number of Simulations

We look at cosmological probes that pose an inverse problem where the measurement result is obtained through observations, and the objective is to infer values of model parameters that characterize the underlying physical system-our universe, from these observations and theoretical forward-modeling. The only way to accurately forward-model physical behavior on small scales is via expensive numerical simulations, which are further “emulated” due to their high cost. Emulators are commonly built with a set of simulations covering the parameter space with Latin hypercube sampling and an interpolation procedure; the aim is to establish an approximately constant prediction error across the hypercube. In this paper, we provide a description of a novel statistical framework for obtaining accurate parameter constraints. The proposed framework uses multi-output Gaussian process emulators that are adaptively constructed using Bayesian optimization methods with the goal of maintaining a low emulation error in the region of the hypercube preferred by the observational data. In this paper, we compare several approaches for constructing multi-output emulators that enable us to take possible inter-output correlations into account while maintaining the efficiency needed for inference. Using a Lyα forest flux power spectrum, we demonstrate that our adaptive approach requires considerably fewer-by a factor of a few in the Lyα P(k) case considered here-simulations compared to the emulation based on Latin hypercube sampling, and that the method is more robust in reconstructing parameters and their Bayesian credible intervals.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗