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At least 667 records · Page 37

Technology Assessments within NASA's Integrated Technology Assessment Center

NASA's Advanced Space Transportation Program (ASTP) founded the Integrated Technology Assessment Center (ITAC) to provide a comprehensive, systematic approach to identify long-term technology needs, to quantify payoffs for technology investments, and to assess the progress of ASTP-sponsored technology programs in the hypersonics/Earth-to-orbit area. To accomplish these goals, the ITAC has assembled an experienced team representing a broad sector of the aerospace community and developed a systematic assessment process complete with supporting tools. In the ITAC approach, concepts for transportation systems are first selected based on relevance to the ASTP. Models of these concepts are then developed and data on advanced technologies are collected. Projections of key technology characteristics with respect to the specific concepts of interest are made. Both the models and technology projections are then fed into the ITAC's probabilistic systems analysis framework. The probabilistic outputs are weighed against metrics of interest to ASTP and a multivariate decision making process is used to provide inputs for technology prioritization within the ASTP. At present, the ITAC program is working to evaluate a variety of technologies for three two-stage hypersonic vehicle concepts. Concepts include an all rocket, vertical take off-horizontal landing (VTHL) system, a horizontal takeoff-horizontal landing (HTHL) RBCC-propelled first stage/all rocket second stage system, and an HTHL turbine-based first stage/all rocket second stage system. This paper will provide a status update of the ITAC program including current results and plans.

Taylor, J. L.↗

Streamlining latent spaces in machine learning using moment pooling

Many machine learning applications involve learning a latent representation of data, which is often high-dimensional and difficult to directly interpret. In this work, we propose “moment pooling,” a natural extension of deep sets networks which drastically decreases the latent space dimensionality of these networks while maintaining or even improving performance. Moment pooling generalizes the summation in deep sets to arbitrary multivariate moments, which enables the model to achieve a much higher effective latent dimensionality for a fixed learned latent space dimension. We demonstrate moment pooling on the collider physics task of quark/gluon jet classification by extending energy flow networks (EFNs) to moment EFNs. We find that moment EFNs with latent dimensions as small as 1 perform similarly to ordinary EFNs with higher latent dimension. This small latent dimension allows for the internal representation to be directly visualized and interpreted, which in turn enables the learned internal jet representation to be extracted in closed form. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Gambhir, Rikab (ORCID:0000000251080448)↗

Analysis of vector wind change with respect to time for Cape Kennedy, Florida

Multivariate analysis was used to determine the joint distribution of the four variables represented by the components of the wind vector at an initial time and after a specified elapsed time is hypothesized to be quadravariate normal; the fourteen statistics of this distribution, calculated from 15 years of twice-daily rawinsonde data are presented by monthly reference periods for each month from 0 to 27 km. The hypotheses that the wind component changes with respect to time is univariate normal, that the joint distribution of wind component change with respect to time is univariate normal, that the joint distribution of wind component changes is bivariate normal, and that the modulus of vector wind change is Rayleigh are tested by comparison with observed distributions. Statistics of the conditional bivariate normal distributions of vector wind at a future time given the vector wind at an initial time are derived. Wind changes over time periods from 1 to 5 hours, calculated from Jimsphere data, are presented. Extension of the theoretical prediction (based on rawinsonde data) of wind component change standard deviation to time periods of 1 to 5 hours falls (with a few exceptions) within the 95 percentile confidence band of the population estimate obtained from the Jimsphere sample data. The joint distributions of wind change components, conditional wind components, and 1 km vector wind shear change components are illustrated by probability ellipses at the 95 percentile level.

Adelfang, S. I.↗

Contraceptive Sabotage and Contraceptive Use at the Time of Pregnancy: An Analysis of People with a Recent Live Birth in the United States

Contraceptive sabotage and other forms of intimate partner violence (IPV) can interfere with contraceptive use. We used 2012 to 2015 Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System data from 8,981 people residing in five states who reported that when they became pregnant, they were not trying to get pregnant. We assessed the relationships between ever experiencing contraceptive sabotage and physical IPV 12 months before pregnancy (both by the current partner) and contraceptive use at the time of pregnancy using multivariable logistic regression. We also assessed the joint associations between physical IPV 12 months before pregnancy and ever experienced contraceptive sabotage with contraceptive use at the time of pregnancy. Few people ever experienced contraceptive sabotage (1.8%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.4, 2.3) or physical IPV 12 months before pregnancy (2.8%; 95% CI: 2.3, 3.3). In models adjusted for age, race/ethnicity, marital status, education, and state of residence, ever experiencing contraceptive sabotage was associated with contraceptive use at the time of pregnancy (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.73; 95% CI: 1.06, 2.82), but not with physical IPV 12 months before pregnancy (aOR: 0.69; 95% CI: 0.46, 1.02). When examining the joint association, compared to not ever experiencing contraceptive sabotage or physical IPV 12 months before pregnancy, ever experiencing contraceptive sabotage was significantly related to contraceptive use at the time of pregnancy (aOR: 1.72; 95% CI: 1.00, 2.95). However, it was not associated with experiencing physical IPV 12 months before pregnancy (aOR: 0.68; 95% CI: 0.45, 1.04) or with experiencing both contraceptive sabotage and physical IPV 12 months before pregnancy (aOR: 1.21; 95% CI: 0.42, 3.50), compared to not ever experiencing contraceptive sabotage or physical IPV 12 months before pregnancy. Our study highlights that current partner contraceptive sabotage may motivate those not trying to get pregnant to use contraception; however, all people in our sample still experienced a pregnancy.

Huber-Krum, Sarah↗

Acreage estimation, feature selection, and signature extension dependent upon the maximum likelihood decision rule

A maximum likelihood estimation technique is used for the analysis of agricultural remote sensor data. The m-class probability of misclassification is estimated using unlabeled test samples and labeled training samples. A bound on the variance of a proposed unbiased estimator of the m-class probability of error is derived. The particular case in which each class density is assumed to be a mixture of multivariate normal densities is considered. The extension of spectral signatures in space and time is discussed.

Quirein, J. A.↗

A modal analysis of flexible aircraft dynamics with handling qualities implications

A multivariable modal analysis technique is presented for evaluating flexible aircraft dynamics, focusing on meaningful vehicle responses to pilot inputs and atmospheric turbulence. Although modal analysis is the tool, vehicle time response is emphasized, and the analysis is performed on the linear, time-domain vehicle model. In evaluating previously obtained experimental pitch tracking data for a family of vehicle dynamic models, it is shown that flexible aeroelastic effects can significantly affect pitch attitude handling qualities. Consideration of the eigenvalues alone, of both rigid-body and aeroelastic modes, does not explain the simulation results. Modal analysis revealed, however, that although the lowest aeroelastic mode frequency was still three times greater than the short-period frequency, the rigid-body attitude response was dominated by this aeroelastic mode. This dominance was defined in terms of the relative magnitudes of the modal residues in selected vehicle responses.

Schmidt, D. K.↗

Linear Least Squares for Correlated Data

Throughout the literature authors have consistently discussed the suspicion that regression results were less than satisfactory when the independent variables were correlated. Camm, Gulledge, and Womer, and Womer and Marcotte provide excellent applied examples of these concerns. Many authors have obtained partial solutions for this problem as discussed by Womer and Marcotte and Wonnacott and Wonnacott, which result in generalized least squares algorithms to solve restrictive cases. This paper presents a simple but relatively general multivariate method for obtaining linear least squares coefficients which are free of the statistical distortion created by correlated independent variables.

Dean, Edwin B.↗

The INSTEP Monitoring Network: Merging High-and-Low Cost Measurements to Characterize California Wildfires

Despite challenges with data quality and scope, low-cost sensor networks have skyrocketed in popularity over the last 15 years, making air quality data available on refined spatial scales. More recently, studies have leveraged both high and low-quality instruments to create stronger “hybrid” models, with most studies focusing on particulate matter. Low-cost measurements typically represent ground-level emissions only, providing context for human health issues from climate change-driven events such as wildfires. Since low-cost sensors’ capabilities are localized, daily events and microclimates tend to dominate the data rather than larger regional or atmospheric trends. Likewise, their low cost explains their high uncertainty. In contrast, some regulatory-grade instruments produce column measurements as well, providing reliable information on a broader scope. To bridge this gap while expanding into gas-phase measurements, we deployed 12 air quality sensor packages in California, USA during the 2022 wildfire season. These INSTEP (Inexpensive Network Sensor Technology Exploring Pollution) monitors measure carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO2), ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and several hydrocarbons including methane (CH4) and formaldehyde (HCHO). Half of the monitors were co-located with remote sensing spectrometers: NASA Pandora and Total Column Carbon Observing Network (TCCON). The overlap in pollutants includes NO2, O3, and HCHO between the INSTEP monitors and the Pandora column measurements. TCCON covers column CO, CO2, and CH4, rounding out our comparison. Most of the monitors were distributed throughout the San Francisco Bay area, and an additional three were located within 100 km of Los Angeles. The sites ranged in geographic and population characteristics, including desert, mountainous, coastal, and urban locations. Since varying environmental conditions such as temperature and pressure are known to challenge sensor performance, we will apply newer sensor “calibration” techniques meant to combat this. We will normalize our sensor signals by z-scoring them prior to applying a single calibration model in the form of multivariate linear regression or an artificial neural network. While this technique has been validated for the hydrocarbon and ozone sensor types (metal oxide), it has not yet been tested on electrochemical and non-dispersive infrared sensors, which are also used in the INSTEP monitors. This will serve as a test to see if this normalization technique – or another – is most effective in accounting for environmental differences among sensors. Related data analysis efforts have found success with a variety of geospatial analysis techniques, including weighted network models in which high-quality instruments are given higher weights than their low-cost counterparts. Our preliminary analysis will focus on kriging, which uses a Gaussian algorithm to assign weights, providing estimated pollution levels at locations between monitors. Smoke trajectory and evolution will also be considered using both measurement types. We also aim to baseline subtract our emission estimates from each region to determine which portion of emissions are regional and local, further characterizing burn differences in northern and southern California fires. Future directions include using INSTEP jointly with TEMPO satellite data, and mobile deployments on aircraft and uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAV).

Low-cost sensors↗

Measurement of the top quark mass using events with a single reconstructed top quark in pp collisions at $$ \sqrt{s} $$ = 13 TeV

A measurement of the top quark mass is performed using a data sample enriched with single top quark events produced in the t channel. The study is based on proton- proton collision data, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb -1 , recorded at √s = 13 TeV by the CMS experiment at the LHC in 2016. Candidate events are selected by requiring an isolated high-momentum lepton (muon or electron) and exactly two jets, of which one is identified as originating from a bottom quark. Multivariate discriminants are designed to separate the signal from the background. Optimized thresholds are placed on the discriminant outputs to obtain an event sample with high signal purity. The top quark mass is found to be $172.13^{+0.76}_{-0.77}$ GeV, where the uncertainty includes both the statistical and systematic components, reaching sub-GeV precision for the first time in this event topology. The masses of the top quark and antiquark are also determined separately using the lepton charge in the final state, from which the mass ratio and difference are determined to be $0.9952^{+0.0079}_{-0.0104}$ and $0.83^{+1.79}_{-1.35}$ GeV, respectively. The results are consistent with CPT invariance.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Search for Higgs Boson Decays into a Z Boson and a Light Hadronically Decaying Resonance Using 13 TeV pp Collision Data from the ATLAS Detector

A search for Higgs boson decays into a Z boson and a light resonance in two-lepton plus jet events is performed, using a p p collision dataset with an integrated luminosity of 139 fb–1 collected at √ s = 13 TeV by the ATLAS experiment at the CERN LHC. The resonance considered is a light boson with a mass below 4 GeV from a possible extended scalar sector or a charmonium state. Multivariate discriminants are used for the event selection and for evaluating the mass of the light resonance. No excess of events above the expected background is found. Observed (expected) 95% confidence-level upper limits are set on the Higgs boson production cross section times branching fraction to a Z boson and the signal resonance, with values in the range 17–340 pb ($16^{+6}_{– 5}–320^{+130}_{–90}$ pb) for the different light spin-0 boson mass and branching fraction hypotheses, and with values of 110 and 100 pb ($100^{+40}_{–30}$ and $100^{+40}_{–30}$ pb ) for the $η_c$ and J/ψ hypotheses, respectively.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Baseline [ 18 F]GTP1 tau PET imaging is associated with subsequent cognitive decline in Alzheimer’s disease

Background: The role and implementation of tau PET imaging for predicting subsequent cognitive decline in Alzheimer’s disease (AD) remains uncertain. This study was designed to evaluate the relationship between baseline [ 18 F]GTP1 tau PET and subsequent longitudinal change across multiple cognitive measures over 18 months. Methods: Our analyses incorporated data from 67 participants, including cognitively normal controls (n = 10) and β-amyloid (Aβ)-positive individuals ([ 18 F] florbetapir Aβ PET) with prodromal (n = 26), mild (n = 16), or moderate (n = 15) AD. Baseline measurements included cortical volume (MRI), tau burden ([ 18 F]GTP1 tau PET), and cognitive assessments [Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR), 13-item version of the Alzheimer’s Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive Subscale (ADAS-Cog13), and Repeatable Battery for the Assessment of Neuropsychological Status (RBANS)]. Cognitive assessments were repeated at 6-month intervals over an 18-month period. Associations between baseline [ 18 F]GTP1 tau PET indices and longitudinal cognitive performance were assessed via univariate (Spearman correlations) and multivariate (linear mixed effects models) approaches. The utility of potential prognostic tau PET cut points was assessed with ROC curves. Results: Univariate analyses indicated that greater baseline [ 18 F]GTP1 tau PET signal was associated with faster rates of subsequent decline on the MMSE, CDR, and ADAS-Cog13 across regions of interest (ROIs). In multivariate analyses adjusted for baseline age, cognitive performance, cortical volume, and Aβ PET SUVR, the prognostic performance of [ 18 F]GTP1 SUVR was most robust in the whole cortical gray ROI. When AD participants were dichotomized into low versus high tau subgroups based on baseline [ 18 F]GTP1 PET standardized uptake value ratios (SUVR) in the temporal (cutoff = 1.325) or whole cortical gray (cutoff = 1.245) ROIs, high tau subgroups demonstrated significantly more decline on the MMSE, CDR, and ADAS-Cog13. Conclusions: Our results suggest that [ 18 F]GTP1 tau PET represents a prognostic biomarker in AD and are consistent with data from other tau PET tracers. Tau PET imaging may have utility for identifying AD patients at risk for more rapid cognitive decline and for stratification and/or enrichment of participant selection in AD clinical trials.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Comparing gas composition from fast pyrolysis of live foliage measured in bench-scale and fire-scale experiments

Background: Fire models have used pyrolysis data from oxidising and non-oxidising environments for flaming combustion. In wildland fires pyrolysis, flaming and smouldering combustion typically occur in an oxidising environment (the atmosphere). Aims: Using compositional data analysis methods, determine if the composition of pyrolysis gases measured in non-oxidising and ambient (oxidising) atmospheric conditions were similar. Methods: Permanent gases and tars were measured in a fuel-rich (non-oxidising) environment in a flat flame burner (FFB). Permanent and light hydrocarbon gases were measured for the same fuels heated by a fire flame in ambient atmospheric conditions (oxidising environment). Log-ratio balances of the measured gases common to both environments (CO, CO 2 , CH 4 , H 2 , C 6 H 6 O (phenol), and other gases) were examined by principal components analysis (PCA), canonical discriminant analysis (CDA) and permutational multivariate analysis of variance (PERMANOVA). Key results: Mean composition changed between the non-oxidising and ambient atmosphere samples. PCA showed that flat flame burner (FFB) samples were tightly clustered and distinct from the ambient atmosphere samples. CDA found that the difference between environments was defined by the CO-CO 2 log-ratio balance. PERMANOVA and pairwise comparisons found FFB samples differed from the ambient atmosphere samples which did not differ from each other. Conclusion: Relative composition of these pyrolysis gases differed between the oxidising and non-oxidising environments. This comparison was one of the first comparisons made between bench-scale and field scale pyrolysis measurements using compositional data analysis. Implications: These results indicate the need for more fundamental research on the early time-dependent pyrolysis of vegetation in the presence of oxygen.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Search for Baryon Number Violation in Top Quark Production and Decay Using Proton-Proton Collisions at $\sqrt{𝑠}$ = 13 TeV

A search is presented for baryon number violating interactions in top quark production and decay. The analysis uses data from proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, collected with the CMS detector at the LHC with an integrated luminosity of 138 fb −1 . Candidate events are selected by requiring two oppositely charged leptons (electrons or muons) and exactly one jet identified as originating from a bottom quark. Multivariate discriminants are used to separate the signal from the background. No significant deviation from the standard model prediction is observed. Upper limits are placed on the strength of baryon number violating couplings. For the first time the production of single top quarks via baryon number violating interactions is studied. This allows the search to set the most stringent constraints to date on the branching fraction of the top quark decay to a lepton, an up-type quark (𝑢 or 𝑐), and a down-type quark (𝑑, 𝑠, or 𝑏). The results improve the previous bounds by 3 to 6 orders of magnitude based on the fermion flavor combination of the baryon number violating interactions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Evidence for $t\bar{t}t\bar{t}$ production in the multilepton final state in proton–proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ $\text {TeV}$ with the ATLAS detector

A search is presented for four-top-quark production using an integrated luminosity of 139 fb –1 of proton–proton collision data at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV collected by the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Events are selected if they contain a same-sign lepton pair or at least three leptons (electrons or muons). Jet multiplicity, jet flavour and event kinematics are used to separate signal from the background through a multivariate discriminant, and dedicated control regions are used to constrain the dominant backgrounds. The four-top-quark production cross section is measured to be $24^{+7}_{–6}$ fb. This corresponds to an observed (expected) significance with respect to the background-only hypothesis of 4.3 (2.4) standard deviations and provides evidence for this process.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

An improved Method for Determining Transient Fuel Dilution of Oil in an Internal-Combustion Engine Using Laser-Induced Florescence and Multivariate Least Square Calibration

An optical diagnostic, based on laser-induced fluorescence (LIF), has been developed for on-engine measurements of real-time fuel dilution of engine oil or fuel in oil (FIO). Fuel dilution of oil is broadly relevant to advancing engine technology including durability, calibration, and catalyst-system management, and believed to promote destructive stochastic pre-ignition (SPI) during high-load engine operations. While standard (e.g., ASTM D3524-90) methods are not capable of real-time transient measurements, the LIF technique resolves transient dilution on the minutes time scale. We have expanded on our original FIO instrument development by introducing an improved analysis based on multivariate least square chemometrics analysis. The measurement uses a fuel dye (180–1300 parts per million, by mass) and monitors for its presence in the oil using 532 nm excitation and LIF. While the original FIO instrument utilized a two-color ratio method for analysis, the improved chemometric analysis uses the fully resolved LIF dye spectra to provide better predictive FIO accuracy (>92%) over a wide FIO range (1.5–14%) typical of engine application. We also investigate the effect of oil temperature on the LIF signal. Limited engine applications for demonstrating and validating the improved FIO instrument are shown, and the related data used to quantify practical detection limit and sensitivity. The improved analysis is insensitive to laser power fluctuation and change in detector integration time, providing an excellent FIO sensitivity (1–2%) and detection limit (0.01 %FIO) over a wide range of loads and injection timings, illustrating this updated approach to be a promising tool for advancing engine technology.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Measurement of the top quark pole mass using $ \textrm{t}\overline{\textrm{t}} $+jet events in the dilepton final state in proton-proton collisions at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 13 TeV

A measurement of the top quark pole mass $\mathcal{m}^\text{pole}_\text{t}$ in events where a top quark-antiquark pair ($\text{t}\bar{\text{t}}$) is produced in association with at least one additional jet ($\text{t}\bar{\text{t}}$ +jet) is presented. This analysis is performed using proton-proton collision data at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV collected by the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC, corresponding to a total integrated luminosity of 36.3 fb -1 . Events with two opposite-sign leptons in the final state (e + e – , μ + μ – , e ± μ ∓ ) are analyzed. The reconstruction of the main observable and the event classification are optimized using multivariate analysis techniques based on machine learning. The production cross section is measured as a function of the inverse of the invariant mass of the $\text{t}\bar{\text{t}}$ +jet system at the parton level using a maximum likelihood unfolding. Given a reference parton distribution function (PDF), the top quark pole mass is extracted using the theoretical predictions at next-to-leading order. For the ABMP16NLO PDF, this results in $\mathcal{m}^\text{pole}_\text{t}$ = 172.93 ± 1.36 GeV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Search for the production of a Higgs boson in association with a single top quark in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for the production of a Higgs boson in association with a single top quark, tH, is presented. The analysis uses proton-proton collision data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 140 fb −1 at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, collected by the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The search targets Higgs-boson decays into $b\bar{b}$, WW * , ZZ * , and ττ, accompanied by an isolated lepton (electron or muon) from the top-quark decay. Multivariate techniques are employed to enhance the separation between signal and background processes. The observed signal strength, μ tH , defined as the ratio between the measured cross-section and the predicted Standard Model value, is μ tH = 8.1 ± 2.6 (stat.) ± 2.0 (syst.). The significance of the observed (expected) signal above the background-only expectation is 2.8 (0.4) standard deviations. The corresponding observed (expected) upper limit at the 95% confidence level on the tH cross-section is found to be 13.9 (6.1) times the value predicted by the Standard Model. An interpretation with an inverted sign of the top-quark Yukawa coupling is performed, and the signal strength and corresponding limit are reported.

Hadron-Hadron Scattering↗

Mapping wall-to-wall fractional cover of Arctic tundra plant functional types in Alaska using 20-m spatial resolution satellite imagery and harmonized plot observations

Estimates of fractional cover (fCover) across given land surfaces are used to assess, and often model, vegetation composition and diversity, which are crucial for understanding the health and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems. Remote sensing provides a useful means for scaling local, plot-measured fCover estimates to regional scales. Leveraging a recently synthesized and harmonized plot database, this study generated wall-to-wall maps of fCover for six Alaskan-Arctic plant functional types (PFT), including non-vascular plants, forbs, graminoids, and deciduous and evergreen shrubs, using 20-m satellite data (Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2, ArcticDEM) using a machine learning regression approach, specifically the random forest (RF) algorithm, which is well-suited for handling nonlinear relationships and high-dimensional satellite datasets. This study additionally addressed the spatio-temporal inconsistencies e.g., sampling scale, plot size, and collection year in plot measured fCover by adopting a multivariate outlier detection approach—Cook’s distance—to identify high-quality plots for model training and validation. Our approach achieves high accuracy (R 2 = 0.59–0.93, root mean squared errors = 0.02–0.10 for all PFTs) between plot-observed and satellite-derived fCover when using high-quality plot samples. The mapped fCover characterizes the spatial patterns of different PFTs across the tundra biome at a 20-m resolution, providing key information needed for improved representation of Arctic tundra vegetation in terrestrial biosphere models to better understand climate-vegetation feedback across the Arctic tundra.

Arctic tundra↗