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At least 667 records · Page 37

Long-term measurements in a mixed-grass prairie reveal a change in soil organic carbon recalcitrance and its environmental sensitivity under warming

Soil respiration, the major pathway for ecosystem carbon (C) loss, has the potential to enter a positive feedback loop with the atmospheric CO2 due to climate warming. For reliable projections of climate-carbon feedbacks, accurate quantification of soil respiration and identification of mechanisms that control its variability are essential. Process-based models simulate soil respiration as functions of belowground C input, organic matter quality, and sensitivity to environmental conditions. However, evaluation and calibration of process-based models against the long-term in situ measurements are rare. Here, we evaluate the performance of the Terrestrial ECOsystem (TECO) model in simulating total and heterotrophic soil respiration measured during a 16-year warming experiment in a mixed-grass prairie; calibrate model parameters against these and other measurements collected during the experiment; and explore whether the mechanisms of C dynamics have changed over the years. Calibrating model parameters against observations of individual years substantially improved model performance in comparison to pre-calibration simulations, explaining 79–86% of variability in observed soil respiration. Interannual variation of the calibrated model parameters indicated increasing recalcitrance of soil C and changing environmental sensitivity of microbes. Overall, we found that (1) soil organic C became more recalcitrant in intact soil compared to root-free soil; (2) warming offset the effects of increasing C recalcitrance in intact soil and changed microbial sensitivity to moisture conditions. Furthermore, these findings indicate that soil respiration may decrease in the future due to C quality, but this decrease may be offset by warming-induced changes in C cycling mechanisms and their responses to moisture conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A three-dimensional model of terrain-induced updrafts for movement ecology studies

Abstract Background Spatially explicit simulation models of animal movements through the atmosphere necessarily require a representation of the spatial and temporal variation of atmospheric conditions. In particular, for movements of soaring birds that rely extensively on vertical updrafts to avoid flapping flight, accurate and reliable estimation of the vertical component of wind is critical. The interaction between wind and complex terrain shapes both the horizontal and vertical wind fields, highlighting the need to model the coupling between local terrain features and atmospheric conditions at scales relevant to animal movement. Methods In this work, we propose a new empirical model for estimating the orographic updraft field. The model is developed using computational fluid dynamics simulations of canonical atmospheric conditions over moderately complex terrain. To isolate buoyancy and thermal effects, and focus on terrain-induced effects, we use only simulations of a neutrally stratified atmosphere to develop the model. The model, which we name Engineering Vertical Velocity Estimator (EVVE), is simple to implement and is a function of the underlying terrain elevation map, the desired height above ground level (AGL), and wind conditions at a reference height (80 m). We validate the model with data from the Alaiz mountain (Spain) field campaign. Results Compared to observations, the proposed improved model estimates the updrafts at 120 m AGL with a mean error of 0.11 m/s ( $$\sigma =0.28$$ σ = 0.28 m/s), compared to 0.85 m/s ( $$\sigma =0.58$$ σ = 0.58 m/s) for its baseline. For typical land-based wind turbine hub heights of 80 m AGL, the proposed model has a mean error of 0.04 m/s ( $$\sigma =0.25$$ σ = 0.25 m/s), compared to baseline 0.54 m/s ( $$\sigma =0.45$$ σ = 0.45 m/s) estimations. We illustrate an application of the model in movement ecology by comparing simulated tracks and presence maps of golden eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ) moving across two distinct landscapes. The tracks and presence maps are obtained using a simple heuristic-based movement model, with the updraft field given by the proposed model and a wind vector-based estimation approach that is currently in wide use in movement ecology studies of raptors and other soaring birds. Conclusions We highlight that movement model results can be sensitive to the underlying orographic updraft model, especially in studies of fine-scale movements in regions of complex topography. We suggest adopting the proposed model rather than the wind vector estimation method for studies of soaring bird movements.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Science &Technology Review (September 2022)

Computer modeling is essential to scientific research. Models simulate natural phenomena to aid scientists in understanding their underlying principles. While the most complex models running on supercomputers may contain millions of lines of code and generate billions of data points, models never simulate reality perfectly. Experiments—in contrast—have been fundamental to the study of natural phenomena from science’s earliest days. However, some of today’s complex experiments generate too much data for the human mind to interpret.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Reparameterizing Litter Decomposition Using a Simplified Monte Carlo Method Improves Litter Decay Simulated by a Microbial Model and Alters Bioenergy Soil Carbon Estimates

Litter decomposition determines soil organic matter (SOM) formation and plant-available nutrient cycles. Therefore, accurate model representation of litter decomposition is critical to improving soil carbon (C) projections of bioenergy feedstocks. Soil C models that simulate microbial physiology (i.e., microbial models) are new to bioenergy agriculture, and their parameterization is often based on small datasets or manual calibration to reach benchmarks. Here, we reparameterized litter decomposition in a microbial soil C model (CORPSE - Carbon, Organisms, Rhizosphere, and Protection in the Soil Environment) using the continental-scale Long-term Inter-site Decomposition Experiment Team (LIDET) dataset which documents decomposition across a range of litter qualities over a decade. Here, we conducted a simplified Monte Carlo simulation that constrained parameter values to reduce computational costs. The LIDET-derived parameters improved modeled C and nitrogen (N) remaining, decomposition rates, and litter mean residence times as compared to Baseline parameters. We applied the LIDET litter decomposition parameters to a microbial bioenergy model (Fixation and Uptake of Nitrogen – Bioenergy Carbon, Rhizosphere, Organisms, and Protection) to examine soil C estimates generated by Baseline and LIDET parameters. LIDET parameters increased estimated soil C in bioenergy feedstocks, with even greater increases under elevated plant inputs (i.e., by increasing residue, N fertilization). This was due to the integrated effects of plant litter quantity, quality, and agricultural practices (tillage, fertilization). Collectively, we developed a simple framework for using large-scale datasets to inform the parameterization of microbial models that impacts projections of soil C for bioenergy feedstocks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An analysis of Potential Benefits of Adding Diurnal Thermal Storage in Geothermal Heat Pump Systems

Geothermal heat pumps (GHP) are highly efficient for space heating and cooling, utilizing the subsurface of the ground as seasonal energy storage through borehole heat exchangers (i.e., heat stored in summer is used to provide heating in winter, and cold stored in winter is used to provide cooling in summer). On the other hand, diurnal thermal energy storage can actively be charged and discharged for load shifting. Conventional thermal energy storage uses tanks filled with thermal storage media (such as phase change materials) and heat exchangers. It occupies building floor space or land areas outside the building, which may not be available especially in residential buildings. This paper will introduce a novel configuration that can utilize existing GHP system for both diurnal and seasonal thermal storage. This system can actively charge the ground on daily basis by injecting heat or cold in borehole heat exchangers. A simulation model was created for the novel configuration. Computer simulations were conducted using the model for the new GHP system serving a typical single-family house in three U.S. cities representing hot, warm, and cold climates. Based on simulation results, the potential benefits of load shifting and downsize of the expensive ground heat exchangers used by the GHP system were assessed.

Anees, Fady [ORNL]↗

Using AI Simulations to Dynamically Model Multi-agent Multi-team Energy Systems

The complexity of energy systems is well known as they are complex and intricate systems. As a result, many extant studies have used many simplifications or generalizations that do not accurately reflect the nature of this complex system. In particular, most HVAC systems are modeled as a single unit, or several large units, rather than as a hierarchical composite (e.g., as a floor rather than as a collection of disparate rooms). The net result of this is that the simulations are too generic to perform meaningful analysis, machine learning, or integrated simulation. We propose using a multi-agent multi-team strategic simulations framework called SiMAMT to better define, model, simulate, and learn the HVAC environment. SiMAMT allows us to create distinct models for each type of room, hierarchically aggregate them into units (like floors, or sections), and then into larger sets (like buildings or a campus), and then perform a simulation that interacts with each sub-element individually, the teams of sub-elements collectively, and the entire set in aggregation. Further, and most importantly, we additionally model another ‘team’ within the simulation framework - the users of the systems. Again, each individual is modeled distinctly, aggregated into sub-sets, then collected into large sets. Each user, or agent, is performing on their own but with respect to the larger team goals. This provides a simulation that has a much higher model fidelity and more applicable results that match the real-world.

Franklin, D. Michael↗

Leveraging the signature of heterotrophic respiration on atmospheric CO 2 for model benchmarking

Spatial and temporal variations in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) reflect large-scale net carbon exchange between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems. Soil heterotrophic respiration (HR) is one of the component fluxes that drive this net exchange, but, given observational limitations, it is difficult to quantify this flux or to evaluate global-scale model simulations thereof. Here, we show that atmospheric CO 2 can provide a useful constraint on large-scale patterns of soil heterotrophic respiration. We analyze three soil model configurations (CASA-CNP, MIMICS, and CORPSE) that simulate HR fluxes within a biogeochemical test bed that provides each model with identical net primary productivity (NPP) and climate forcings. We subsequently quantify the effects of variation in simulated terrestrial carbon fluxes (NPP and HR from the three soil test-bed models) on atmospheric CO 2 distributions using a three-dimensional atmospheric tracer transport model. Our results show that atmospheric CO 2 observations can be used to identify deficiencies in model simulations of the seasonal cycle and interannual variability in HR relative to NPP. In particular, the two models that explicitly simulated microbial processes (MIMICS and CORPSE) were more variable than observations at interannual timescales and showed a stronger-than-observed temperature sensitivity. Our results prompt future research directions to use atmospheric CO 2 , in combination with additional constraints on terrestrial productivity or soil carbon stocks, for evaluating HR fluxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

On the Correspondence Between Atmosphere-Only and Coupled Simulations for Radiative Feedbacks and Forcing From CO 2

Atmosphere-only experiments are widely used to investigate climate feedbacks simulated in more computationally expensive fully coupled global climate model simulations. We confirm that this remains a valid approach by comparing the radiative feedbacks and forcing between coupled and atmosphere-only simulations for the latest models taking part in the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). For global-mean cloud feedbacks, we find a better than previously known correspondence between these experiments, which applies even to the response of individual cloud properties (amount, altitude, and optical depth) and holds even when considering atmosphere-only simulations of only 1 yr duration. For regional cloud feedbacks, the correspondence between the two experiments is generally present at every geographic location except for the tropical Pacific but takes longer experiments to reveal. For the lapse rate and surface albedo feedbacks, the correspondence between the two experiments is weaker due to the non-uniform warming pattern and loss of sea ice in the coupled experiment. For the across-model relationship between 4xCO 2 effective radiative forcing and feedback, we find a different behavior across experiments in CMIP6 than in CMIP5, casting doubt on the physical significance of previous results that highlighted an anti-correlation between the two quantities. Overall, these results confirm the utility of atmosphere-only experiments particularly to study cloud feedbacks, which are the dominant source of inter-model spread in climate sensitivity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Seasonal and CO 2 -Induced Shifts of the ITCZ: Testing Energetic Controls in Idealized Simulations with Comprehensive Models

The Tropical Rain Belts with an Annual Cycle and Continent Model Intercomparison Project (TRACMIP) ensemble—a multimodel ensemble of slab-ocean simulations in idealized configurations—provides a test of the relationship between the zonal mean ITCZ and the cross-equatorial atmospheric energy transports (AHT eq ). In a gross sense, the ITCZ position is linearly related to AHT eq , as expected from the energetic framework. Yet, in many aspects, the TRACMIP model simulations do not conform to the framework. Throughout the annual cycle there are large excursions in the ITCZ position unrelated to changes in the AHT eq and, conversely, substantial variations in the magnitude of the AHT eq while the ITCZ is stationary at its northernmost position. Variations both in the net vertical energy input at the ITCZ location and in the vertical profile of ascent play a role in setting the model behavior apart from the conceptual framework. Nevertheless, a linear fit to the ITCZ–AHT eq relationship captures a substantial fraction of the seasonal variations in these quantities as well as the intermodel or across-climate variations in their annual mean values. The slope of the ITCZ–AHT eq linear fit for annual mean changes across simulations with different forcings and configurations varies in magnitude and even sign from model to model and we identify variations in the vertical profile of ascent as a key factor. A simple sea surface temperature–based index avoids the complication of changes in the vertical structure of the atmospheric circulation and provides a more reliable diagnostic for the ITCZ position.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Linking classical PRA models to a dynamic PRA

Here, this paper presents a series of methods designed to incorporate classical Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) models such as Event Trees (ETs) and Fault Trees (FTs) into dynamic PRA. In contrast to classical PRA, dynamic PRA couples stochastic methods with system simulators to determine the risks associated with complex systems such as nuclear power plants. Compared with classical PRA methods, they can evaluate with higher resolution the safety impact of timing and sequencing of events on the progression of the accident. As part of a dynamic PRA analysis, it is not uncommon that parts of the system to be analyzed might not require a computationally expensive simulation model. These parts could be in fact modeled by employing classical PRA models (e.g., a FT). Here, we present a set of methods and tools that can be used to link the most common classical PRA models (ETs, FTs, reliability block diagrams and Markov models) to simulation codes such as RELAP5-3D: creating a “hybrid PRA.” In order to show the potential of such an hybrid PRA we employ this method to verify ET modeling assumptions (e.g., success criteria) using a large break loss of coolant accident initiating event as a test case. In this respect, we link a set of FTs from the original PRA to the RELAP5-3D code and perform a hybrid PRA. The FTs are employed to model the control logic of several safety systems and to propagate component failures throughout the system. Provided the generated dynamic PRA data, we show how conservative assumptions in the original PRA can be identified and how such original PRA can be modified by updating success criteria captured by the set of RELAP5-3D simulation runs.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Inference of Rock Flow and Mechanical Properties from Injection-Induced Microseismic Events During Geologic CO 2 Storage

Monitoring microseismic activities during CO 2 injection into geologic formations is important for ensuring the safety of the storage operations. The resulting data provide insight into the response of the storage formation to CO 2 injection and can be used to infer the underlying rock flow and mechanical properties. In this paper, assimilation of microseismic data is performed for dynamic characterization of the storage formation by using a stochastic simulation model to forecast the microseismic response of a geologic formation during CO 2 injection. Two modeling approaches are adopted to predict the space-time distribution of the injection-induced microseismicity. The first model is based on pore pressure relaxation assumption, while the second model uses coupled flow and geomechanics simulation to establish the complex physical relation between the storage formation properties and the corresponding microseismic responses during CO 2 injection. The stochastic predictive models in each case are used in ensemble data assimilation frameworks to estimate rock properties from the observed microseismic data. Two data assimilation methods are considered: (i) a new ensemble-based stochastic point process filter (EnPPF) that can directly integrate discrete microseismic events, and (ii) a variant of ensemble smoother, known as the ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation (ES-MDA), which requires continuous representation of microseismic events for assimilation. The two methods are successfully applied to a geologically realistic model of the Farnsworth Field in Texas, with complex geologic flow units and interacting fault systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Temporal evolution of the light emitted by a thin, laser-ionized plasma source

We present an experimental and simulation-based investigation of the temporal evolution of light emission from a thin, laser-ionized helium plasma source. We demonstrate an analytic model to calculate the approximate scaling of the time-integrated, on-axis light emission with the initial plasma density and temperature, supported by the experiment, which enhances the understanding of plasma light measurement for plasma wakefield accelerator (PWFA) plasma sources. Our model simulates the plasma density and temperature using a split-step Fourier code and a particle-in-cell code. A fluid simulation is then used to model the plasma and neutral density, and the electron temperature as a function of time and position. We then show the numerical results of the space-and-time-resolved light emission and that collisional excitation is the dominant source of light emission. We validate our model by measuring the light emitted by a laser-ionized plasma using a novel statistical method capable of resolving the nanosecond-scale temporal dynamics of the plasma light using a cost-effective camera with microsecond-scale timing jitter. This method is ideal for deployment in the high radiation environment of a particle accelerator that precludes the use of expensive nanosecond-gated cameras. Our results show that our models can effectively simulate the dynamics of a thin, laser-ionized plasma source. In addition, this work provides a detailed understanding of the plasma light measurement, which is one of the few diagnostic signals available for the direct measurement of PWFA plasma sources.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Parallel transport dynamics for mixed quantum states with applications to time-dependent density functional theory

Direct simulation of the von Neumann dynamics for a general (pure or mixed) quantum state can often be expensive. One prominent example is the real-time time-dependent density functional theory (rt-TDDFT), a widely used framework for the first principle description of many-electron dynamics in chemical and materials systems. Practical rt-TDDFT calculations often avoid the direct simulation of the von Neumann equation, and solve instead a set of Schrödinger equations, of which the dynamics is equivalent to that of the von Neumann equation. However, the time step size employed by the Schrödinger dynamics is often much smaller. Here, in order to improve the time step size and the overall efficiency of the simulation, we generalize a recent work of the parallel transport (PT) dynamics for simulating pure states [An, Lin, Multiscale Model. Simul. 18, 612, 2020] to general quantum states. The PT dynamics provides the optimal gauge choice, and can employ a time step size comparable to that of the von Neumann dynamics. Going beyond the linear and near adiabatic regime in previous studies, we find that the error of the PT dynamics can be bounded by certain commutators between Hamiltonians, density matrices, and their derived quantities. Such a commutator structure is not present in the Schrödinger dynamics. We demonstrate that the parallel transport-implicit midpoint (PT-IM) method is a suitable method for simulating the PT dynamics, especially when the spectral radius of the Hamiltonian is large. The commutator structure of the error bound, and numerical results for model rt-TDDFT calculations in both linear and nonlinear regimes, confirm the advantage of the PT dynamics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Evaluating Sea Breezes and Associated Convective Cloud Evolution in the Model Gray Zone

We characterize convective clouds associated with sea‐breeze circulations (SBC) using multi‐agency observations and multi‐case ensemble model simulations. The focus is on assessing convective cloud lifecycle properties and their merging behavior, as well as the environmental conditions they are embedded in, particularly SBC features. In total, 46 SBC days over the Houston‐Galveston region are selected and simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at a gray zone scale with a forecast‐like parameterization setup. Advanced techniques, including change‐point detection, a Lagrangian cloud tracking method, and a newly developed cell merging and splitting detection algorithm, are applied and/or developed for this study. Our findings indicate that the WRF model at 1 km grid spacing well represents the thermodynamic conditions over the region, as well as SBC timing and intensity. However, for the associated convective cells, WRF overestimates the 30‐dBZ echo top height, cell area, and maximum radar reflectivity compared to radar observations. This overestimation is potentially due to under‐resolved entrainment processes, an overestimated merging frequency, and the overestimation of updraft intensity. Furthermore, the model exhibits a deficiency in simulating congestus clouds, showing a more rapid transition from shallow to deep convection compared to observed behavior. Moreover, observations indicate stronger, deeper, and wider clouds when merging happens. Conversely, in simulations, the merging process does not necessarily lead to higher or longer‐lived cells, as many cases experience rapid and frequent merging and splitting which may result in more variance in convective updraft velocity during the convection lifetime.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

AI-Batt (Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models) [SWR 21-36]

Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models (AI-Batt) AI-Batt is a MATLAB code base for developing lifetime models for batteries from accelerated aging data. The code base provides many functions for processing, visualizing, and modeling battery aging data, making the data processing, exploration, and modeling workflow substantially faster. These tools are tailored for working with battery aging data sets, which usually consist of many separate time-series for each cell, with many test conditions and possible replicates at each condition, which makes it difficult to simply process or visualize the data set. Complex modeling tasks, such as cross-validation, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification have been implemented to enable thorough statistical investigation of model predictions. Additionally, several machine-learning algorithms are implemented to autonomously identify suitable models via symbolic regression. Data processing functions automatically cast data from the struct data type, which is commonly used to store experimental data, but is not an acceptable input for most algorithms, to the table data type, which can be easily used as input to any optimization algorithm. Also, the data can be separated into time-invariant and time-variant data tables, which is helpful for exploring the data set as well as developing separate models for time-variant and time-invariant aging mechanisms. For example, in aging tests with constant temperature, temperature is a time-invariant experimental condition. Visualization tools enable plotting of data, model fits, and model simulations possible with single-line function calls, empowering data exploration of complex data sets with both time-varying and time-invariant trends. Plots can be automatically generated for the whole data set, or separated by data group (groups of test replicates) or individual data series. Data points or data series can be automatically colored by the value of a variable with a variety of color maps, and model predictions can also be colored by the value of a fit statistic. Comparisons between data sets and the predictions/simulations of different models on the same data set can be easily plotted as well. Distributions of parameter values from bootstrap resampling can be plotted to visualize the reliability of parameter estimation, or determine any correlations between parameters. Modeling tools handle the complex task of creating and parsing symbolic equations for modeling battery lifetime. Equations are parsed to grab relevant data variables, parameter values, or specified sub-models for input into optimization, evaluation, or simulation functions. Models can be optimized locally (one set of parameters for each data series), bi-level (some parameters shared across the data set), or globally (single set of parameters for all data). Functions implementing symbolic regression algorithms help users to discover effective model equations, even in poorly sampled, high-dimensional data.

Smith, Kandler↗

Toward the core-edge coupling of delta-f and total-f gyrokinetic models

The coupling of core reduced delta-f and edge total-f gyrokinetic models could enable a significant speed-up of the whole device modeling simulations. It is thus interesting to compare these models in the core where they will be coupled. The main difference between these models is the presence of the zeroth order term on the right-hand side of the total-f gyrokinetic equation. This term is responsible for driving a radial electric field that is also associated with Geodesic acoustic mode-like oscillations. To investigate the coupling between these models, the subsequent large-scale gyrokinetic 3D turbulence simulations have been performed starting from an already saturated gyrokinetic axisymmetric equilibria (collisions are not included). This work has also been extended to couple different axisymmetric and turbulent models available in XGC. It is shown that the radial electric field and its drive have to be taken care of consistently while coupling different models together.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

The effects of spatial and temporal resolution of gridded meteorological forcing on watershed hydrological responses

Abstract. Meteorological forcing plays a critical role in accurately simulating the watershed hydrological cycle. With the advancement of high-performance computing and the development of integrated watershed models, simulating the watershed hydrological cycle at high temporal (hourly to daily) and spatial resolution (tens of meters) has become efficient and computationally affordable. These hyperresolution watershed models require high resolution of meteorological forcing as model input to ensure the fidelity and accuracy of simulated responses. In this study, we utilized the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), an integrated watershed model, to simulate surface and subsurface flow and land surface processes using unstructured meshes at the Coal Creek Watershed near Crested Butte (Colorado). We compared simulated watershed hydrologic responses including streamflow and distributed variables such as evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent (SWE), and groundwater table driven by three publicly available, gridded meteorological forcings (GMFs) – Daily Surface Weather and Climatological Summaries (Daymet), the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM), and the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). By comparing various spatial resolutions (ranging from 400 m to 4 km) of PRISM, the simulated streamflow only becomes marginally worse when spatial resolution of meteorological forcing is coarsened to 4 km (or 30 % of the watershed area). However, the 4 km-resolution has much worse performance than finer resolution in spatially distributed variables such as SWE. Using the temporally disaggregated PRISM, we compared models forced by different temporal resolutions (hourly to daily), and sub-daily resolution preserves the dynamic watershed responses (e.g., diurnal fluctuation of streamflow) that are absent in results forced by daily resolution. Conversely, the simulated streamflow shows better performance using daily resolution compared to that using sub-daily resolution. Our findings suggest that the choice of GMF and its spatiotemporal resolution depends on the quantity of interest and its spatial and temporal scale, which may have important implications for model calibration and watershed management decisions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗