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At least 667 records · Page 37

On the Effect of Dust Particles on Global Cloud Condensation Nuclei and Cloud Droplet Number

Aerosol-cloud interaction studies to date consider aerosol with a substantial fraction of soluble material as the sole source of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Emerging evidence suggests that mineral dust can act as good CCN through water adsorption onto the surface of particles. This study provides a first assessment of the contribution of insoluble dust to global CCN and cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC). Simulations are carried out with the NASA Global Modeling Initiative chemical transport model with an online aerosol simulation, considering emissions from fossil fuel, biomass burning, marine, and dust sources. CDNC is calculated online and explicitly considers the competition of soluble and insoluble CCN for water vapor. The predicted annual average contribution of insoluble mineral dust to CCN and CDNC in cloud-forming areas is up to 40 and 23.8%, respectively. Sensitivity tests suggest that uncertainties in dust size distribution and water adsorption parameters modulate the contribution of mineral dust to CDNC by 23 and 56%, respectively. Coating of dust by hygroscopic salts during the atmospheric aging causes a twofold enhancement of the dust contribution to CCN; the aged dust, however, can substantially deplete in-cloud supersaturation during the initial stages of cloud formation and can eventually reduce CDNC. Considering the hydrophilicity from adsorption and hygroscopicity from solute is required to comprehensively capture the dust-warm cloud interactions. The framework presented here addresses this need and can be easily integrated in atmospheric models.

Karydis, V. A.↗

Utilizing a Common Model Architecture for the Simulation of On-Orbit Human Spaceflight Operations

Advances in computing and simulation technology during the 1980 s promoted the development of multiple simulations for on-orbit human spaceflight operations at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Johnson Space Center (JSC). By the late 1980 s, it became increasingly clear that redundancy risked leading to inefficiencies in dissemination and incorporation of models across simulations, institutional organizations, and spaceflight programs. Software development tools, such as the Trick Simulation Environment, began to emerge providing a generalized framework for the development, integration, and operation of simulations. Throughout the 1990s, engineering, operations, and training simulations began to migrate to Trick in order to take advantage of a common simulation environment. Due to forecasted reductions in funding to the Shuttle and International Space Station (ISS) programs in the early 2000s, the common framework that arose from this simulation migration was formalized as the Common Model Architecture (CMA). The CMA was established in order to further reduce redundancy, while promoting model sharing and enhancing model integrity. A minimal set of standards for data flows, functional interactions, and model organization based on Trick were defined for those features found to be most important in facilitating model interaction. Model-providing organizations within NASA JSC took ownership of models for their specific areas of expertise, and agreements were reached on common model sharing and usage. This paper describes the evolution of commonality enabled by the Trick Simulation Environment at JSC leading to the CMA, the standards defined by the CMA, a recent CMA simulation example, and potential application of the CMA to NASA s new Exploration program.

Leslie J Quiocho↗

Toward Coupled Data Assimilation in NASA’s GEOS: Developments in the Ocean Context

The Global Modeling & Assimilation Office (GMAO) at NASA GSFC produces analyses and predictions of the Earth system using various configurations of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model and assimilation system. The current sub-seasonal-to-seasonal prediction system (GEOS-S2S) is based on a coupled atmosphere-ocean-land-ice configuration of GEOS which includes the Modular Ocean Model version 5 (MOM5) run at approximately 50-km resolution and a de-coupled OI-based ocean analysis that uses an initialization of MOM5 forced by the MERRA-2 reanalysis. GMAO will soon implement an updated GEOS-S2S system that will run at 25-km resolution and adopt aspects of the hybrid four-dimensional ensemble-variational (H4DEnVar) system already running in the production-version atmospheric analysis system, including a Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) to provide initial conditions for the oceanic state. This presentation will focus on developments to sustain the GMAO's systems on longer time horizons, where more radical transformations will be required to adapt to advanced computing environments, higher resolution and more diverse model components, and new observations for the Earth system. Results will describe progress toward a version of the GEOS coupled system that will be based around the Joint Effort for Data assimilation Integration (JEDI) framework being developed within Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) and include an updated ocean model, MOM6. Discussion will focus specifically on the use of a Unified Forward Operator (UFO) for simulating observations and the Object Oriented Prediction System (OOPS) for providing the state estimate. These features are being developed as a multi-agency effort under the auspices of the JCSDA and are being adopted in the GMAO for all its applications of coupled data assimilation including S2S, numerical weather prediction, and reanalysis.

Mahajan, Rahul↗

Multibody for Everybody (M4E) - A Linearization Approach to Enable Frequency Domain Analysis, Time Integration and Control Co-Design

1.1 Background/Objectives: Marine energy represents a promising yet underexploited source of power. To increase the harvested power, significant efforts have been made to improve wave energy converter (WEC) modeling capabilities and optimize power take-off (PTO) performance; however, these efforts have often treated WEC dynamics, PTO design, and controller development sequentially. In contrast, control co-design (CCD) is emerging as a promising strategy to address these issues directly, creating a growing need for fast analysis tools suitable for repeated simulation and parametric studies [1]. To support this need, this work presents the Multibody for Everybody (M4E) [2] linearization module, which employs a symbolic toolbox to provide deeper insight of WEC design parameters. The objective is to demonstrate that a minimal-coordinate linearization of articulated WEC dynamics can provide accurate wave response predictions and substantial computational savings relative to nonlinear time-domain simulation, while preserving compatibility with broader wave-energy analysis workflows, enabling CCD. 1.2 Approach/Activities: The proposed approach linearizes the equations of motion, generated by M4E, in minimal coordinates about a selected operating point and combines the resulting system with frequencydomain hydrodynamic terms to incorporate the reduced mass, damping, stiffness, and forcing operators. The linearized model is used for both impedance-based response amplitude operator (RAO) prediction and rapid regular-wave time integration. The methodology is demonstrated on a single-flap device and a FOSWEC configuration, with linearized M4E responses compared against the corresponding nonlinear M4E simulations and WEC-Sim results. Regular-wave time histories, RAO trends, and runtime differences are assessed. The framework is also compatible with broader wave-energy workflows, including coupling to WecOptTool, although that capability is not the focus of this work [3]. 1.3 Results/Lessons: The linearized M4E model reproduces key regularwave response characteristics such as integration and Response Amplitude over multiple frequencies. This module matches nonlinear M4E and WEC-Sim results while substantially reducing integration cost. Thus, the proposed framework can serve as a rapid analysis layer for articulated WEC design, parameter studies, and controls-oriented workflows. The analysis is most appropriate in the near-equilibrium regime, about the linearization point.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

How Frequent Will the Rarest Daily Rainfall Records of Hurricane Ida’s Remnants Be in the Future?

Abstract Gaining continued insights into the impact of global warming on the occurrence of hurricane-associated intense record downpours is essential for building climate resilient communities. This study investigates projected future changes in extreme rainfall over the Northeast United States, as represented by extreme daily amounts during Hurricane Ida in 2021. We used historical control simulations of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model generated from 40 years of weather events (1980–2014, 12 km) forced by the fifth generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis. These simulations are thermodynamically modified (2060–2100) via an imposed warming for the high-emission scenario of shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP585) from a range of general circulation models. Ground observations from the Global Historical Climatology Network (1950–2014) and WRF simulations (historical, 1980–2014, and future, 2060–2100) are integrated into a nonstationary generalized extreme value (GEV) framework to assess the frequency of Ida’s heaviest daily rain rates under the SSP585 scenario. Results show that Ida’s daily maximum rainfall recorded at different observation locations was higher than the single highest September daily maximum observed (1950–2014) for 5 out of 17 stations (∼30% of the stations). Ida-like extreme daily rain rates are projected to be, on average, more than 2 times more likely to occur at the end of the century in the simulations (with some regions as high as 5 times). This work demonstrates that integrating a high-resolution atmospheric model’s present-day and thermodynamically modified future simulations along with ground observations, within a nonstationary statistical framework, is crucial for understanding changing characteristics of extreme weather events. Significance Statement Daily scale extreme precipitation is expected to become more frequent and severe, as evidenced by observations and model simulations. While it is important to investigate how these intensifying heavy rainfall events affect current engineering standards, fewer studies have contextualized how warming impacts the most extreme rainfall from a single storm event relative to historical heavy downpours. In this study, we focused on the daily extreme rainfall associated with the extratropical transition of Hurricane Ida (2021), particularly over the northeastern United States—some of which exceeded the commonly used hydrologic design criteria for a 100-yr storm. Using a high-resolution atmospheric model simulation, we investigated how continued warming may influence the frequency of such daily rain rates. Under a high-emission scenario, these events are projected to become up to 5 times more likely at the end of the twenty-first century.

Dollan, Ishrat J↗

Advancing process-based flood frequency analysis for assessing flood hazard and population flood exposure

Recent studies have showcased the use of process-based hydrological models with Stochastic Storm Transposition (SST) techniques to conduct Flood Frequency Analysis (FFA). This framework, referred hereby FFA-SST, has proved to be a robust strategy to estimate peak flows of specific annual exceedance probability (e.g., 100-year peak flow) that can reflect natural and anthropogenic disturbances, including changes in land use and meteorological patterns. With the objective of advancing the FFA-SST framework, this study presents for the first time the use of an Integrated Surface-Subsurface Hydrological Model (ISSHM) to conduct FFA-SST by extending the analysis from peak flow responses to flood extent, enabling a unique view and analysis of flood hazard and population flood exposure at the basin scale. As a proof-of-concept, we used the ISSHM, Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (Amanzi-ATS) model, and the SST model, RainyDay, to conduct FFA-SST by simulating the flood response to 5,000 annual synthetic storm events in a 2,227 $km^2$ Southeast Texas watershed. We demonstrate that ATS, without site-specific calibration, provides a robust process-based representation of peak flows, flood extent, streamflow, evapotranspiration, soil moisture content, and water storage changes. Our results and analyses, covering frequency curves up to a 500-year return period for peak flows, basin inundation fractions, and the number of people exposed to flooding, offer a unique perspective to analyze flood impacts across spatial scales. Overall, this study provides critical insights for flood risk management by extending the FFA-SST framework to include both flood hazard and population flood exposure analyses at the basin scale. Such an approach will empower stakeholders and disaster emergency agencies with a more comprehensive understanding of flood impacts across the entire basin domain, facilitating informed decision-making for flood risk assessment and management.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

BEYONDPLANCK XIII. Intensity foreground sampling, degeneracies, and priors

We present the intensity foreground algorithms and model employed within the BEYONDPLANCK analysis framework. The BEYONDPLANCK analysis is aimed at integrating component separation and instrumental parameter sampling within a global framework, leading to complete end-to-end error propagation in the Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) data analysis. Given the scope of the BEYONDPLANCK analysis, a limited set of data is included in the component separation process, leading to foreground parameter degeneracies. In order to properly constrain the Galactic foreground parameters, we improve upon the previous Commander component separation implementation by adding a suite of algorithmic techniques. These algorithms are designed to improve the stability and computational efficiency for weakly constrained posterior distributions. These are: (1) joint foreground spectral parameter and amplitude sampling, building on ideas from MIRAMARE; (2) component-based monopole determination; (3) joint spectral parameter and monopole sampling; and (4) application of informative spatial priors for component amplitude maps. We find that the only spectral parameter with a significant signal-to-noise ratio using the current BEYONDPLANCK data set is the peak frequency of the anomalous microwave emission component, for which we find $ν$ p = 25.3 ± 0.5 GHz; all others must be constrained through external priors. Future works will be aimed at integrating many more data sets into this analysis, both map and time-ordered based, thereby gradually eliminating the currently observed degeneracies in a controlled manner with respect to both instrumental systematic effects and astrophysical degeneracies. When this happens, the simple LFI-oriented data model employed in the current work will need to be generalized to account for both a richer astrophysical model and additional instrumental effects. This work will be organized within the Open Science-based COSMOGLOBE community effort.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Integrating Tide‐Driven Wetland Soil Redox and Biogeochemical Interactions Into a Land Surface Model

Abstract Redox processes, aqueous and solid‐phase chemistry, and pH dynamics are key drivers of subsurface biogeochemical cycling and methanogenesis in terrestrial and wetland ecosystems but are typically not included in terrestrial carbon cycle models. These omissions may introduce errors when simulating systems where redox interactions and pH fluctuations are important, such as wetlands where saturation of soils can produce anoxic conditions and coastal systems where sulfate inputs from seawater can influence biogeochemistry. Integrating cycling of redox‐sensitive elements could therefore allow models to better represent key elements of carbon cycling and greenhouse gas production. We describe a model framework that couples the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) with PFLOTRAN biogeochemistry, allowing geochemical processes and redox interactions to be integrated with land surface model simulations. We implemented a reaction network including aerobic decomposition, fermentation, sulfate reduction, sulfide oxidation, methanogenesis, and methanotrophy as well as pH dynamics along with iron oxide and iron sulfide mineral precipitation and dissolution. We simulated biogeochemical cycling in tidal wetlands subject to either saltwater or freshwater inputs driven by tidal hydrological dynamics. In simulations with saltwater tidal inputs, sulfate reduction led to accumulation of sulfide, higher dissolved inorganic carbon concentrations, lower dissolved organic carbon concentrations, and lower methane emissions than simulations with freshwater tidal inputs. Model simulations compared well with measured porewater concentrations and surface gas emissions from coastal wetlands in the Northeastern United States. These results demonstrate how simulating geochemical reaction networks can improve land surface model simulations of subsurface biogeochemistry and carbon cycling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Understanding the Impacts of Soil Moisture Initial Conditions on NWP in the Context of Land-Atmosphere Coupling

The role of soil moisture in NWP has gained more attention in recent years, as studies have demonstrated impacts of land surface states on ambient weather from diurnal to seasonal scales. However, soil moisture initialization approaches in coupled models remain quite diverse in terms of their complexity and observational roots, while assessment using bulk forecast statistics can be simplistic and misleading. In this study, a suite of soil moisture initialization approaches is used to generate short-term coupled forecasts over the U.S. Southern Great Plains using NASA’s Land Information System (LIS) and NASA Unified WRF (NU-WRF) modeling systems. This includes a wide range of currently used initialization approaches, including soil moisture derived from ‘off-the-shelf’ products such as atmospheric models and land data assimilation systems, high-resolution land surface model spinups, and satellite-based soil moisture products from SMAP. Results indicate that the spread across initialization approaches can be quite large in terms of soil moisture conditions and spatial resolution, and that SMAP performs well in terms of heterogeneity and temporal dynamics when compared against high resolution land surface model and in-situ soil moisture estimates. Case studies are analyzed using the local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) framework that relies on integrated assessment of soil moisture, surface flux, boundary layer, and ambient weather, with results highlighting the critical role of inherent model background biases. In addition, simultaneous assessment of land vs. atmospheric initial conditions in an integrated, process-level fashion can help address the question of whether improvements in traditional NWP verification statistics are achieved for the right reasons.

Southern Great Plains↗

Modeling Pb(II) Adsorption on Mineral Surfaces: Bridging Density Functional Theory and Experiment with Thermodynamic Insights

Despite decades of work on aqueous lead (Pb) adsorption on a-Fe2O3 (hematite) and a-Al2O3 (alumina), gaps between measurements and modeling obscure molecular-level understanding. Achieving well-matched geometries between theory and experimental for mineral-water interfaces is a hurdle, as surface functional group type and distribution must be accounted for in determining mechanisms. Additionally, computational methods that can describe the substrate are often not appropriate to capture aqueous effects. Progress requires focusing on well-studied and relevant systems, such as key facets (001),(012), and (110) of hematite and alumina, and ubiquitous contaminants such as aqueous Pb. In the past, bulk-parametrized bond-valence principles were used to rationalize Pb(II) adsorption trends. These approaches can break down at surfaces, where flexible bonding environments and adsorption-induced surface relaxations play a critical role. Here, we adapt and apply a density functional theory (DFT) and thermodynamics framework, integrating DFT-calculated energies with experimental data and electrochemical principles, to predict Pb(II) adsorption. Our model results capture trends across the full set of surfaces and predict that inner-sphere Pb(II) sorption on (001) alumina varies from unfavorable to weakly favorable across a range of pH conditions. This aligns with experiment insights that Pb(II) interacts at that surface through outer-sphere interactions. Extending to Fe(II) adsorption, we demonstrate a coverage-dependent site preference, potentially explaining disorder in overlayers grown by the oxidative adsorption of Fe(II) on hematite (001).

lead contamination↗

VESIcal Part I: An open-source thermodynamic model engine for mixed volatile (H2O-CO2) solubility in silicate melts

Thermodynamics has been fundamental to the interpretation of geologic data and modeling of geologic systems for decades. However, more recent advancements in computational capabilities and a marked increase in researchers’ accessibility to computing tools has outpaced the functionality and extensibility of currently available modeling tools. Here we present VESIcal (Volatile Equilibria and Saturation Identification calculator): the first comprehensive modeling tool for H 2 O, CO 2 , and mixed (H 2 O-CO 2 ) solubility in silicate melts that: a) allows users access to seven commonly used models, plus easy inter-comparison between models; b) provides universal functionality for all models (e.g., functions for calculating saturation pressures, degassing paths, etc.); c) can process large datasets (1,000’s of samples) automatically; d) can output computed data into an excel spreadsheet for simple post-modeling analysis; e) integrates advanced plotting capabilities directly within the tool; and f) provides all of these within the framework of a python library, making the tool extensible by the user and allowing any of the model functions to be incorporated into any other code capable of calling python. The tool is presented within this manuscript, which is a Jupyter notebook containing worked examples accessible to python users with a range of skill levels. The basic functions of VESIcal can also be access via a web app (https://vesical.anvil.app). The VESIcal python library is open-source and available for download at https://github.com/kaylai/VESIcal.

K. Iacovino↗

Analyses Made to Order: Using Transformation to Rapidly Configure a Multidisciplinary Environment

Aerospace problems are highly multidisciplinary. Four or more major disciplines are involved in analyzing any particular vehicle. Moreover, the choice of implementation technology of various subsystems can lead to a change of leading domain or reformation of the driving equations. An excellent example is the change of expertise required to consider aircraft built from composite or metallic structures, or those propelled by chemical or electrical thrusters. Another example is in the major reconfiguration of handling and stability equations with different control surface configuration (e.g., canards, t-tail v four-post tail). Combinatorial problems are also commonplace anytime that a major system is to be designed. If there are only 5 attributes of a design to consider with 4 different options, this is already 1024 options. Adding just 5 more dimensions to the study explodes the space to over one million. Even generous assumptions like the idea that only 10% of the combinations are physically feasible can only contain the problem for so long. To make matters worse, the simple number of combinations is only the beginning. Combining the issue of trade space size with the need to reformulate the design problem for many of the possibilities makes life exponentially more difficult. Advances in software modeling approaches have led to the development of model-driven architecture. This approach uses the transformation of models into inferred models (e.g. inferred execution traces from state machines) or the skeletons for code generation. When the emphasis on transformation is applied to aerospace, it becomes possible to exploit redundancy in the information specified in multiple domain models into a unified system model. F1urther, it becomes possible to overcome the combinatorial nature of specifying integrated system behavior by manually combining the equations governing a given component technology. Transformations from a system specification combined with a system-analysis mapping specification enable one-click combination of domain analyses. This is a flexibility that has been missing from many engineering codes, which often entangle design specification and physical examination much more than is required to conduct the analysis. This capability has been investigated and cultivated within the DARPA F6 program by a team of JPL and Phoenix Integration engineers building the Adapatable Systems Design and Analysis (ASDA) framework. By embracing system modeling with SysML and the Query-View-Transformation (QVT) language, the ASDA team has been able to build a flexible, easily reconfigurable framework for building up and solving large tradespaces. Examples of application and lessons learned in building the framework will be described in this paper. In addition, the motivation will be laid for various tool vendors to develop open model description standards while being able to maintain competitive advantage through proprietary algorithms and approaches. These standards will also be compared to the underpinnings of model-driven architecture and the OMG standards of the Meta-Object Facility (MOF), SysML, and QVT.

Cole, Bjorn↗

Marine ice sheet experiments with the Community Ice Sheet Model

Ice sheet models differ in their numerical treatment of dynamical processes. Simulations of marine-based ice are sensitive to the choice of Stokes flow approximation and basal friction law and to the treatment of stresses and melt rates near the grounding line. We study the effects of these numerical choices on marine ice sheet dynamics in the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM). In the framework of the Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project 3d (MISMIP3d), we show that a depth-integrated, higher-order solver gives results similar to a 3D (Blatter–Pattyn) solver. We confirm that using a grounding line parameterization to approximate stresses in the grounding zone leads to accurate representation of ice sheet flow with a resolution of ~2 km, as opposed to ~0.5 km without the parameterization. In the MISMIP+ experimental framework, we compare different treatments of sub-shelf melting near the grounding line. In contrast to recent studies arguing that melting should not be applied in partly grounded cells, it is usually beneficial in CISM simulations to apply some melting in these cells. This suggests that the optimal treatment of melting near the grounding line can depend on ice sheet geometry, forcing, or model numerics. In both experimental frameworks, ice flow is sensitive to the choice of basal friction law. To study this sensitivity, we evaluate friction laws that vary the connectivity between the basal hydrological system and the ocean near the grounding line. CISM yields accurate results in steady-state and perturbation experiments at a resolution of ~2 km (arguably 4 km) when the connectivity is low or moderate and ~1 km (arguably 2 km) when the connectivity is strong.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Thermodynamics-guided machine learning model for predicting convective boundary layer height and its multi-site applicability

Accurate estimation of convective boundary layer height (CBLH) is vital for weather, climate, and air quality modeling. Machine learning (ML) shows promise in CBLH prediction, but input parameter selection often lacks physical grounding, limiting generalizability. This study introduces a novel ML framework for CBLH prediction, integrating thermodynamic constraints and the diurnal CBLH cycle as an implicit physical guide. Boundary layer growth is modeled as driven by surface heat fluxes and atmospheric heat absorption represented with the low tropospheric stability, using the diurnal cycle as input and output. TPOT and AutoKeras are employed to select optimal models, validated against Doppler lidar-derived CBLH data, achieving an R 2 of 0.84 across untrained years. Comparisons of eddy covariance (ECOR) and energy balance Bowen ratio (EBBR) flux measurements show the same prediction capability. Models trained on the ARM SGP C1 site with ECOR data and tested at E37 and E39 yield R 2 values of 0.79 and 0.81, respectively, demonstrating their adaptability. The ML model trained with all sites' data slightly enhances the performance compared with ML models trained over single-site data. The interquartile range for predicted CBLH is consistently narrower than that for DL-derived CBLH, reflecting lower variability in predicted CBLH compared to DL-derived CBLH, which is influenced by additional factors, which are not well represented with the model inputs. The model's generalizability across multiple sites at the ARM SGP site demonstrates its potential for transfer to greater distances, offering a scalable approach for enhancing boundary layer parameterization in atmospheric models.

Chu, Yufei [Stony Brook Univ., NY (United States)]↗

Parallel Hybrid Turboprop Performance Modeling and Optimization

NASA’s Electrified Powertrain Flight Demonstration (EPFD) project conducts ground and flight tests of integrated Megawatt (MW) class hybrid-electric powertrain systems on regional turboprop aircraft demonstrators. To meet the increased demand for assessment of potential capabilities and benefits from these novel vehicle configurations, NASA is developing tooling and models to estimate the performance of hybridized regional turboprops. This paper covers the development of a parametrically driven performance model for a De Havilland Canada Dash 8-400 (Q400) regional turboprop integrated with a novel parallel hybrid architecture using the Gascon framework. Gascon is a modern reimplementation of the General Aviation Synthesis Program (GASP) built using the Condor mathematical modeling framework in Python. Within Gascon, a parametric representation of the parallel hybrid architecture was synthesized, which features the electric motor coupled to the power turbine. This capability allows for in-the-loop optimization of the parametric parallel hybrid architecture to characterize the mission capabilities and fuel savings of the design and determine optimal power scheduling strategies for efficient electric power management for a given mission. The study shows that a fuel savings of up to 20% can be achieved, but that increased fuel savings comes at the expense of payload capacity.

Gascon↗

Parallel Hybrid Turboprop Performance Modeling and Optimization

NASA’s Electrified Powertrain Flight Demonstration (EPFD) project conducts ground and flight tests of integrated Megawatt (MW) class hybrid-electric powertrain systems on regional turboprop aircraft demonstrators. To meet the increased demand for assessment of potential capabilities and benefits from these novel vehicle configurations, NASA is developing tooling and models to estimate the performance of hybridized regional turboprops. This paper covers the development of a parametrically driven performance model for a De Havilland Canada Dash 8-400 (Q400) regional turboprop integrated with a novel parallel hybrid architecture using the Gascon framework. Gascon is a modern reimplementation of the General Aviation Synthesis Program (GASP) built using the Condor mathematical modeling framework in Python. Within Gascon, a parametric representation of the parallel hybrid architecture was synthesized, which features the electric motor coupled to the power turbine. This capability allows for in-the-loop optimization of the parametric parallel hybrid architecture to characterize the mission capabilities and fuel savings of the design and determine optimal power scheduling strategies for efficient electric power management for a given mission. The study shows that a fuel savings of up to 20% can be achieved, but that increased fuel savings comes at the expense of payload capacity.

Gascon↗

Validation of Atmosphere/Ionosphere Signals Associated with Major Earthquakes by Multi-Instrument Space-Borne and Ground Observations

The latest catastrophic earthquake in Japan (March 2011) has renewed interest in the important question of the existence of pre-earthquake anomalous signals related to strong earthquakes. Recent studies have shown that there were precursory atmospheric/ionospheric signals observed in space associated with major earthquakes. The critical question, still widely debated in the scientific community, is whether such ionospheric/atmospheric signals systematically precede large earthquakes. To address this problem we have started to investigate anomalous ionospheric / atmospheric signals occurring prior to large earthquakes. We are studying the Earth's atmospheric electromagnetic environment by developing a multisensor model for monitoring the signals related to active tectonic faulting and earthquake processes. The integrated satellite and terrestrial framework (ISTF) is our method for validation and is based on a joint analysis of several physical and environmental parameters (thermal infrared radiation, electron concentration in the ionosphere, lineament analysis, radon/ion activities, air temperature and seismicity) that were found to be associated with earthquakes. A physical link between these parameters and earthquake processes has been provided by the recent version of Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model. Our experimental measurements have supported the new theoretical estimates of LAIC hypothesis for an increase in the surface latent heat flux, integrated variability of outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) and anomalous variations of the total electron content (TEC) registered over the epicenters. Some of the major earthquakes are accompanied by an intensification of gas migration to the surface, thermodynamic and hydrodynamic processes of transformation of latent heat into thermal energy and with vertical transport of charged aerosols in the lower atmosphere. These processes lead to the generation of external electric currents in specific regions of the atmosphere and the modifications, by dc electric fields, in the ionosphere-atmosphere electric circuit. We retrospectively analyzed temporal and spatial variations of four different physical parameters (gas/radon counting rate, lineaments change, long-wave radiation transitions and ionospheric electron density/plasma variations) characterizing the state of the lithosphere/atmosphere coupling several days before the onset of the earthquakes. Validation processes consist in two phases: A. Case studies for seven recent major earthquakes: Japan (M9.0, 2011), China (M7.9, 2008), Italy (M6.3, 2009), Samoa (M7, 2009), Haiti (M7.0, 2010) and, Chile (M8.8, 2010) and B. A continuous retrospective analysis was preformed over two different regions with high seismicity- Taiwan and Japan for 2003-2009. Satellite, ground surface, and troposphere data were obtained from Terra/ASTER, Aqua/AIRS, POES and ionospheric variations from DEMETER and COSMIC-I data. Radon and GPS/TEC were obtaining from monitoring sites in Taiwan, Japan and Italy and from global ionosphere maps (GIM) respectively. Our analysis of ground and satellite data during the occurrence of 7 global earthquakes has shown the presence of anomalies in the atmosphere. Our results for Tohoku M9.0 earthquake show that on March 7th, 2011 (4 days before the main shock and 1 day before the M7.2 foreshock of March 8, 2011) a rapid increase of emitted infrared radiation was observed by the satellite data and an anomaly was developed near the epicenter. The GPS/TEC data indicate an increase and variation in electron density reaching a maximum value on March 8. From March 3 to 11 a large increase in electron concentration was recorded at all four Japanese ground-based ionosondes, which returned to normal after the main earthquake. Similar approach for analyzing atmospheric and ionospheric parameters has been applied for China (M7.9, 2008), Italy (M6.3, 2009), Samoa (M7, 2009), Haiti (M7.0, 2010) and Chile (M8.8, 2010) eahquakes. Results have revealed the presence of related variations of these parameters implying their connection with the earthquake process. The second phase (B) of this validation included 102 major earthquakes (M>5.9) in Taiwan and Japan. We have found anomalous behavior before all of these events with no false negatives. False alarm ratio for false positives is less then 10% and has been calculated for the same month of the earthquake occurrence for the entire period of analysis (2003-2009). The commonalities for detecting atmospheric/ionospheric anomalies are: i.) Regularly appearance over regions of maximum stress (i.e., along plate boundaries); ii.) Anomaly existence over land and sea; and iii) association with M>5.9 earthquakes not deeper than 100km. Due to their long duration over the same region these anomalies are not consistent with a meteorological origin. Our initial results from the ISTF validation of multi-instrument space-borne and ground observations show a systematic appearance of atmospheric anomalies near the epicentral area, one to seven (average) days prior to the largest earthquakes, and suggest that it could be explained by a coupling process between the observed physical parameters and the pre-earthquake preparation processes.

Ouzounov, Dimitar↗

Chromatin structures from integrated AI and polymer physics model

The physical organization of the genome in three-dimensional space regulates many biological processes, including gene expression and cell differentiation. Three-dimensional characterization of genome structure is critical to understanding these biological processes. Direct experimental measurements of genome structure are challenging; computational models of chromatin structure are therefore necessary. We develop an approach that combines a particle-based chromatin polymer model, molecular simulation, and machine learning to efficiently and accurately estimate chromatin structure fromindirectmeasures of genome structure. More specifically, we introduce a new approach where the interaction parameters of the polymer model are extracted from experimental Hi-C data using a graph neural network (GNN). We train the GNN on simulated data from the underlying polymer model, avoiding the need for large quantities of experimental data. The resulting approach accurately estimates chromatin structures across all chromosomes and across several experimental cell lines despite being trained almost exclusively on simulated data. The proposed approach can be viewed as a general framework for combining physical modeling with machine learning, and it could be extended to integrate additional biological data modalities. Ultimately, we achieve accurate and high-throughput estimations of chromatin structure from Hi-C data, which will be necessary as experimental methodologies, such as single-cell Hi-C, improve.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗