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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2021

FORECASTING WHEAT YIELD USING REMOTE SENSING: THE ARYA FORECASTING SYSTEM

In this study we present a model to forecast wheat yield based on the evolution of the Difference Vegetation Index (DVI)and the Growing Degree Days (GDD), presented in Franch et al. (2015), but adapted to Franch et al. (2019) model. Additionally, we explore how the Land Surface Temperature (LST) can be included into the model and if this parameter adds any value to the model when combined with the optical information. This study is applied toMODIS data at 1km resolution to monitor the national and state level yield of winter wheat in the United States and Ukraine from 2001 to 2019.

B. Franch↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparison of Entry Descent and Landing Aerodynamic Databases with Uncertainty Quantification Developed Using Machine Learning Techniques

When developing the aerodynamic databases for use in trajectory simulations, it is important to develop a system of metrics to qualify which aerodynamic models are best to use. Since aerodynamics are just one input into trajectory simulations, the results of these simulations do not reflect on the quality of the aerodynamic database used. This means that aerodynamic database comparisons must be done offline. While traditional metrics that focus on mean/nominal predictions are a good first step, more robust estimates of the prediction interval become important as more focused uncertainty models are developed. We explore the limitations of evaluating aerodynamic models based purely on nominal-centered response surfaces. Before elaborating and evaluating metrics based on distributed models, the value of evaluating prediction interval and confidence interval are discussed to conclude that prediction intervals are more relevant to the use of trajectory analysis. Several metrics to evaluate the prediction interval are introduced with a focus on the standard calibration metric. Finally, we compare candidate models using both mean and distributed metrics. A finalized candidate model developed using state of the art machine learning methods is compared to a baseline model developed using traditional aerodynamic database modeling techniques.

Aerodynamic Database↗
DOE OSTI2023

The ellipticity parameterization for an NFW profile: An overlooked angular structure in strong lens modeling

Galaxy-scale gravitational lenses are often modeled with two-component mass profiles where one component represents the stellar mass and the second is a Navarro Frenk White (NFW) profile representing the dark matter. Outside of the spherical case, the NFW profile is costly to implement, and so it is approximated via two different methods; ellipticity can be introduced via the lensing potential (NFWp) or via the mass by approximating the NFW profile as a sum of analytical profiles (NFWm). While the NFWp method has been the default for lensing applications, it gives a different prescription of the azimuthal structure, which we show introduces ubiquitous gradients in ellipticity and boxiness in the mass distribution rather than having a constant elliptical shape. Because an unmodeled azimuthal structure has been shown to be able to bias lens model results, we explored the degree to which this azimuthal structure that was introduced can affect the model accuracy. We constructed input profiles using composite models using both the NFWp and NFWm methods and fit these mocks with a power-law elliptical mass distribution (PEMD) model with external shear. As a measure of the accuracy of the recovered lensing potential, we calculated the value of the Hubble parameter H 0 one would determine from the lensing fit. We found that the fits to the NFWp input return H 0 values that are systematically biased by about 3% lower than the NFWm counterparts. We explored whether such an effect is attributable to the mass sheet transformation (MST) by using an MST-independent quantity, ξ 2 . We show that, as expected, the NFWm mocks are degenerate with PEMD through an MST. For the NFWp, an additional bias was found beyond the MST due to the azimuthal structure exterior to the Einstein radius. We recommend modelers use an NFWm prescription in the future, such that the azimuthal structure can be introduced explicitly rather than implicitly.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1985

International Symposium on Remote Sensing of Environment, Third Thematic Conference: Remote Sensing for Exploration Geology, Colorado Springs, CO, April 16-19, 1984, Proceedings. Volumes 1 & 2

A photogeologic and remote sensing model of porphyry type mineral sytems is considered along with a Landsat application to development of a tectonic model for hydrocarbon exploration of Devonian shales in west-central Virginia, remote sensing and the funnel philosophy, Landsat-based tectonic and metallogenic synthesis of the southwest United States, and an evolving paradigm for computer vision. Attention is given to the neotectonics of the Tibetan plateau deduced from Landsat MSS image interpretation, remote sensing in northern Arizona, the use of an airborne laser system for vegetation inventories and geobotanical prospecting, an evaluation of Thematic Mapper data for hydrocarbon exploration in low-relief basins, and an evaluation of the information content of high spectral resolution imagery. Other topics explored are related to a major source of new radar data for exploration research, the accuracy of geologic maps produced from Landsat data, and an approach for the geometric rectification of radar imagery.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Convective-To-Total Precipitation Ratio and the “Drizzling” Bias in Climate Models

Overestimation of precipitation frequency and duration while underestimating intensity, that is, the “drizzling” bias, has been a long-standing problem of global climate models. Here we explore this issue from the perspective of precipitation partitioning. We found that most models in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) have high convective-to-total precipitation (PC/PR) ratios in low latitudes. Convective precipitation has higher frequency and longer duration but lower intensity than non-convective precipitation in many models. As a result, the high PC/PR ratio contributes to the “drizzling” bias over low latitudes. The PC/PR ratio and associated “drizzling” bias increase as model resolution coarsens from 0.5° to 2.0°, but the resolution's effect weakens as the grid spacing increases from 2.0° to 3.0°. Some of the CMIP6 models show reduced “drizzling” bias associated with decreased PC/PR ratio. Thus, more reasonable precipitation partitioning, along with finer model resolution should alleviate the “drizzling” bias within current climate models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Closure models for the feedback of energetic particles on plasma turbulence

Energetic particles interact with the plasma surrounding them, resonating with certain types of plasma waves to stabilize them while destabilizing others, and changing the character of the background turbulence in ways that have not been fully quantified or understood. Interaction with the turbulent background plasma is key to the acceleration of many types of energetic particles including high-energy cosmic rays, solar energetic particles, and pick-up ions. The acceleration of particles is a process that would ideally be described by a kinetic model, a type of model that follows a probability distribution function (PDF) for all particles in 7-dimensional (x, y, z, v x , v y , v z , t) space. Because of the high dimensionality of a kinetic model, simulations that solve kinetic equations use the largest computational resources currently available, and are yet unable to simulate a realistic number of particles, reach the large scales necessary for astrophysical problems, and use high-precision numerical methods. Two available alternatives to kinetic plasma models have been explored for this problem, with limited success. One is a multi-fluid model produced by a cumulant discarding closure, which evolves coupled equations for the velocity, magnetic field, and internal energy for both the background plasma and the fluid of energetic particles. However, simulations that solve multi-fluid magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations are able to include the interaction with energetic particles only in crude ways, typically as an add-on pressure term. The second alternative is to use a hybrid method to couple a fluid description of the background plasma to a kinetic model or a Fokker–Planck model for the energetic particles. These methods are hampered by the physical modeling of the coupling. In this work, we develop a new model, which follows the PDF for all particles; this can be viewed as a step toward physical realism above a multi-fluid MHD model, while also being more computationally efficient than a kinetic model. The equations we develop model both the background plasma and the energetic particles self-consistently. Over the last decade, similar PDF methods have been developed to a high level of sophistication to model reactive flows and turbulent combustion for engineering applications. For treatment of the feedback of the energetic particles on a background plasma, a PDF closure approach should evaluate the mean characteristics, including the density, with better statistical quality than will particle-sampling procedures.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1975

Surface Models of Mars (1975)

Data derived from Mariners 6, 7, and 9, Russian Mars probes, and photographic and radar observations conducted from earth are used to develop engineering models of Martian surface properties. These models are used in mission planning and in the design of landing and exploration vehicles. Optical models needed in the design of camera systems, dielectric properties needed in the design of radar systems, and thermal properties needed in the design of the spacecraft thermal control system are included.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2004

A Formal Methods Approach to the Analysis of Mode Confusion

The goal of the new NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) is to reduce the civil aviation fatal accident rate by 80% in ten years and 90% in twenty years. This program is being driven by the accident data with a focus on the most recent history. Pilot error is the most commonly cited cause for fatal accidents (up to 70%) and obviously must be given major consideration in this program. While the greatest source of pilot error is the loss of situation awareness , mode confusion is increasingly becoming a major contributor as well. The January 30, 1995 issue of Aviation Week lists 184 incidents and accidents involving mode awareness including the Bangalore A320 crash 2/14/90, the Strasbourg A320 crash 1/20/92, the Mulhouse-Habsheim A320 crash 6/26/88, and the Toulouse A330 crash 6/30/94. These incidents and accidents reveal that pilots sometimes become confused about what the cockpit automation is doing. Consequently, human factors research is an obvious investment area. However, even a cursory look at the accident data reveals that the mode confusion problem is much deeper than just training deficiencies and a lack of human-oriented design. This is readily acknowledged by human factors experts. It seems that further progress in human factors must come through a deeper scrutiny of the internals of the automation. It is in this arena that formal methods can contribute. Formal methods refers to the use of techniques from logic and discrete mathematics in the specification, design, and verification of computer systems, both hardware and software. The fundamental goal of formal methods is to capture requirements, designs and implementations in a mathematically based model that can be analyzed in a rigorous manner. Research in formal methods is aimed at automating this analysis as much as possible. By capturing the internal behavior of a flight deck in a rigorous and detailed formal model, the dark corners of a design can be analyzed. This paper will explore how formal models and analyses can be used to help eliminate mode confusion from flight deck designs and at the same time increase our confidence in the safety of the implementation. The paper is based upon interim results from a new project involving NASA Langley and Rockwell Collins in applying formal methods to a realistic business jet Flight Guidance System (FGS).

Butler, Ricky W.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Workshop Report on Virtual Worlds and Immersive Environments

The workshop revolved around three framing ideas or scenarios about the evolution of virtual environments: 1. Remote exploration: The ability to create high fidelity environments rendered from external data or models such that exploration, design and analysis that is truly interoperable with the physical world can take place within them. 2. We all get to go: The ability to engage anyone in being a part of or contributing to an experience (such as a space mission), no matter their training or location. It is the creation of a new paradigm for education, outreach, and the conduct of science in society that is truly participatory. 3. Become the data: A vision of a future where boundaries between the physical and the virtual have ceased to be meaningful. What would this future look like? Is this plausible? Is it desirable? Why and why not?

Langhoff, Stephanie R.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Integrated Turbine Tip Clearance and Gas Turbine Engine Simulation

Gas turbine compressor and turbine blade tip clearance (i.e., the radial distance between the blade tip of an axial compressor or turbine and the containment structure) is a major contributing factor to gas path sealing, and can significantly affect engine efficiency and operational temperature. This paper details the creation of a generic but realistic high pressure turbine tip clearance model that may be used to facilitate active tip clearance control system research. This model uses a first principles approach to approximate thermal and mechanical deformations of the turbine system, taking into account the rotor, shroud, and blade tip components. Validation of the tip clearance model shows that the results are realistic and reflect values found in literature. In addition, this model has been integrated with a gas turbine engine simulation, creating a platform to explore engine performance as tip clearance is adjusted. Results from the integrated model explore the effects of tip clearance on engine operation and highlight advantages of tip clearance management.

gas path dynamics↗
NASA NTRS2016

Integrated Turbine Tip Clearance and Gas Turbine Engine Simulation

Gas turbine compressor and turbine blade tip clearance (i.e., the radial distance between the blade tip of an axial compressor or turbine and the containment structure) is a major contributing factor to gas path sealing, and can significantly affect engine efficiency and operational temperature. This paper details the creation of a generic but realistic high pressure turbine tip clearance model that may be used to facilitate active tip clearance control system research. This model uses a first principles approach to approximate thermal and mechanical deformations of the turbine system, taking into account the rotor, shroud, and blade tip components. Validation of the tip clearance model shows that the results are realistic and reflect values found in literature. In addition, this model has been integrated with a gas turbine engine simulation, creating a platform to explore engine performance as tip clearance is adjusted. Results from the integrated model explore the effects of tip clearance on engine operation and highlight advantages of tip clearance management.

aerothermodynamics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Using Radiative Convective Equilibrium to Explore Clouds and Climate in the Community Atmosphere Model

Abstract Characteristics of, and fundamental differences between, the radiative‐convective equilibrium (RCE) climate states following the Radiative‐Convective Equilibrium Model Intercomparison Project (RCEMIP) protocols in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) and version 6 (CAM6) are presented. This paper explores the characteristics of clouds, moisture, precipitation and circulation in the RCE state, as well as the tropical response to surface warming, in CAM5 and CAM6 with different parameterizations. Overall, CAM5 simulates higher precipitation rates that result in larger global average precipitation, despite lower outgoing longwave radiation compared to CAM6. Differences in the structure of clouds, particularly the amount and vertical location of cloud liquid, exist between the CAM versions and can, in part, be related to distinct representations of shallow convection and boundary layer processes. Both CAM5 and CAM6 simulate similar peaks in cloud fraction, relative humidity, and cloud ice, linked to the usage of a similar deep convection parameterization. These anvil clouds rise and decrease in extent in response to surface warming. More generally, extreme precipitation, aggregation of convection, and climate sensitivity increase with warming in both CAM5 and CAM6. This analysis provides a benchmark for future studies that explore clouds, convection, and climate in CAM with the RCEMIP protocols now available in the Community Earth System Model. These results are discussed within the context of realistic climate simulations using CAM5 and CAM6, highlighting the usefulness of a hierarchical modeling approach to understanding model and parameterization sensitivities to inform model development efforts.

Reed, Kevin A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Automating Discovery of Physics-Informed Neural State Space Models via Learning and Evolution

Recent works exploring deep learning application to dynamical systems modeling have demonstrated that embedding physical priors into neural networks can yield more effective, physically-realistic, and data-efficient models. However, in the absence of complete prior knowledge of a dynamical system's physical characteristics, determining the optimal structure and optimization strategy for these models can be difficult. In this work, we explore methods for discovering neural state space dynamics models for system identification. Starting with a design space of block-oriented state space models and structured linear maps with strong physical priors, we encode these components into a model genome alongside network structure, penalty constraints, and optimization hyperparameters. Demonstrating the overall utility of the design space, we employ an asynchronous genetic search algorithm that alternates between model selection and optimization and obtains accurate physically consistent models of three physical systems: an aerodynamics body, a continuous stirred tank reactor, and a two tank interacting system.

genetic algorithms, neural architecture search, ne↗
DOE OSTI2022

Parallel simulated annealing with embedded machine learning and multifidelity models for reactor core design

This paper presents extensions to a penalty-free, parallel simulated annealing (SA) algorithm for multi-constrained combinatorial optimization with the aim of embedding multi-fidelity physics models into the annealing procedure. The method uses a low-fidelity, quickly executing model for rapid design space exploration and a high-fidelity model for detailed constraint resolution and on-the-fly bias correction. Machine learning models updated within the annealing procedure were used to bridge the gap between the multi-fidelity models, which led to accurate rapid exploration and efficient detailed constraint resolution. A software implementation of the new multi-fidelity optimization methods, called ML-PSA, was demonstrated on a continuous multi-fidelity optimization problem and a constrained combinatorial PWR lattice design problem. These problems demonstrate some of the features, parallel performance characteristics, and extensible nature of the multi-fidelity SA methods. This paper shows that the developed software and procedure are a general optimization tool that can be applied to a wide variety of scientific and engineering design optimization applications. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS2008

On the Development of Parameterized Linear Analytical Longitudinal Airship Models

In order to explore Titan, a moon of Saturn, airships must be able to traverse the atmosphere autonomously. To achieve this, an accurate model and accurate control of the vehicle must be developed so that it is understood how the airship will react to specific sets of control inputs. This paper explains how longitudinal aircraft stability derivatives can be used with airship parameters to create a linear model of the airship solely by combining geometric and aerodynamic airship data. This method does not require system identification of the vehicle. All of the required data can be derived from computational fluid dynamics and wind tunnel testing. This alternate method of developing dynamic airship models will reduce time and cost. Results are compared to other stable airship dynamic models to validate the methods. Future work will address a lateral airship model using the same methods.

aerobot↗
DOE OSTI2025

Lepton flavor violation by three units

The conservation of lepton flavor is a prediction of the Standard Model and is still an excellent approximate symmetry despite our observation of neutrino oscillations. Lepton flavor violation by one or two units has been discussed for decades, with several dedicated experiments exploring the vast model landscape but no discoveries so far. Here, we explore operators and processes that violate at least one lepton flavor by three units and identify testable signatures. In the Standard Model effective field theory, such operators already arise at mass dimension 7 and can be tested through their contributions to Michel parameters in leptonic decays. True neutrinoless charged-lepton flavor violation arises at mass dimension 10 and can realistically only be seen in the tau decay channels 𝜏 → $𝑒⁢𝑒⁢𝑒⁢\bar{𝜇}⁢\bar{𝜇}$ or 𝜏 → $𝜇⁢𝜇⁢𝜇\bar{𝑒}\bar{𝑒}$, for example in Belle II. Testable rates for these tau decays require light new particles and subsequently predict an avalanche of remarkably clean but so-far unconstrained collider signatures.

Feynman diagrams↗
DOE OSTI2022

Investigating uncertainties in human adaptation and their impacts on water scarcity in the Colorado river Basin, United States

The Colorado River Basin (CRB) supports the water supply for seven states and forty million people in the Western United States (US) and has been suffering an extensive drought for more than two decades. As climate change continues to reshape water resources distribution in the CRB, its impact can differ in intensity and location, resulting in variations in human adaptation behaviors. The feedback from human systems in response to the environmental changes and the associated uncertainty is critical to water resources management, especially for water-stressed basins. This paper investigates how human adaptation affects water scarcity uncertainty in the CRB and highlights the uncertainties in human behavior modeling. Our focus is on agricultural water consumption, as approximately 80% of the water consumption in the CRB is used in agriculture. We adopted a coupled agent-based and water resources modeling approach for exploring human-water system dynamics, in which an agent is a human behavior model that simulates a farmer’s water consumption decisions. We examined uncertainties at the system, agent, and parameter levels through uncertainty, clustering, and sensitivity analyses. The uncertainty analysis results suggest that the CRB water system may experience 13 to 30 years of water shortage during the 2019–2060 simulation period, depending on the paths of farmers’ adaptation. The clustering analysis identified three decision-making classes: bold, prudent, and forward-looking, and quantified the probabilities of an agent belonging to each class. The sensitivity analysis results indicated agents whose decision-making models require further investigation and the parameters with the higher uncertainty reduction potentials. Here, by conducting numerical experiments with the coupled model, this paper presents quantitative and qualitative information about farmers’ adaptation, water scarcity uncertainties, and future research directions for improving human behavior modeling.

Agent-based modeling↗