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At least 667 records · Page 37

Benchmarking and parameter sensitivity of physiological and vegetation dynamics using the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) at Barro Colorado Island, Panama

Plant functional traits determine vegetation responses to environmental variation, but variation in trait values is large, even within a single site. Likewise, uncertainty in how these traits map to Earth system feedbacks is large. We use a vegetation demographic model (VDM), the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), to explore parameter sensitivity of model predictions, and comparison to observations, at a tropical forest site: Barro Colorado Island in Panama. We define a single 12-dimensional distribution of plant trait variation, derived primarily from observations in Panama, and define plant functional types (PFTs) as random draws from this distribution. We compare several model ensembles, where individual ensemble members vary only in the plant traits that define PFTs, and separate ensembles differ from each other based on either model structural assumptions or non-trait, ecosystem-level parameters, which include (a) the number of competing PFTs present in any simulation and (b) parameters that govern disturbance and height-based light competition. While single-PFT simulations are roughly consistent with observations of productivity at Barro Colorado Island, increasing the number of competing PFTs strongly shifts model predictions towards higher productivity and biomass forests. Different ecosystem variables show greater sensitivity than others to the number of competing PFTs, with the predictions that are most dominated by large trees, such as biomass, being the most sensitive. Changing disturbance and height-sorting parameters, i.e., the rules of competitive trait filtering, shifts regimes of dominance or coexistence between early- and late-successional PFTs in the model. Increases to the extent or severity of disturbance, or to the degree of determinism in height-based light competition, all act to shift the community towards early-successional PFTs. In turn, these shifts in competitive outcomes alter predictions of ecosystem states and fluxes, with more early-successional-dominated forests having lower biomass. It is thus crucial to differentiate between plant traits, which are under competitive pressure in VDMs, from those model parameters that are not and to better understand the relationships between these two types of model parameters to quantify sources of uncertainty in VDMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Misclassification in Workers’ Telecommuting Frequency Choices Using a Generalized Extreme Value Model

Telecommuting frequency is a response variable collected in travel surveys and is, therefore, prone to errors leading to mismeasurements or misclassification. Misclassification of explanatory variables is a common risk when using statistical modeling techniques. We define “misclassification” as a response reported or recorded in the wrong category; for example, a variable is recorded as a 1 when it should be 0. Here, in this context, this study aims to develop a statistical model to analyze telecommuting data which accounts for potential misclassification errors by building on existing literature in econometrics. The empirical analysis was undertaken using the 2017 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) and the general extreme value (GEV) models available in the literature. Specifically, the frequency of telecommuting days was analyzed using the negative binomial (NB) model recast as the multinomial logit (MNL) model. By nature—and consistent with other studies—NHTS data are prone to errors that can be classified as intentional or unintentional misinformation provided by the person being interviewed. Ignoring these errors while modeling telecommuting frequencies using standard discrete count models can result in biased parameter estimates. The misclassification parameter was calculated for both over-reporting and under-reporting scenarios. The misclassification errors can be as high as 14% over-reported and 10% under-reported, particularly for the neighboring values. Statistical fit comparison between the models shows that models that ignore misclassification have worse data fit and biased parameter estimates with significant policy implications.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Using radar observations to evaluate 3-D radar echo structure simulated by the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 1

Abstract. The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) developed by the Department of Energy has a goal of addressing challenges in understanding the global water cycle. Success depends on correct simulation of cloud and precipitation elements. However, lack of appropriate evaluation metrics has hindered the accurate representation of these elements in general circulation models. We derive metrics from the three-dimensional data of the ground-based Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) network over the US to evaluate both horizontal and vertical structures of precipitation elements. We coarsened the resolution of the radar observations to be consistent with the model resolution and improved the coupling of the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observation Simulator Package (COSP) and E3SM Atmospheric Model Version 1 (EAMv1) to obtain the best possible model output for comparison with the observations. Three warm seasons (2014–2016) of EAMv1 simulations of 3-D radar reflectivity features at an hourly scale are evaluated. A general agreement in domain-mean radar reflectivity intensity is found between EAMv1 and NEXRAD below 4 km altitude; however, the model underestimates reflectivity over the central US, which suggests that the model does not capture the mesoscale convective systems that produce much of the precipitation in that region. The shape of the model-estimated histogram of subgrid-scale reflectivity is improved by correcting the microphysical assumptions in COSP. Different from previous studies that evaluated modeled cloud top height, we find the model severely underestimates radar reflectivity at upper levels – the simulated echo top height is about 5 km lower than in observations – and this result is not changed by tuning any single physics parameter. For more accurate model evaluation, a higher-order consistency between the COSP and the host model is warranted in future studies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Smart manufacturing maturity models and their applicability: a review

The purpose of this paper is to review existing smart manufacturing (SM) maturity models' dimensions and maturity levels to assess their applicability and drawbacks. There are many maturity models available but many of them have not been validated or do not provide a useful guide or tool for applications. This gap creates the need for a review of the existing maturity model's applicability. Nineteen peer-reviewed maturity models related to “Digital Transformation,” “Industry 4.0” or “Smart Manufacturing” were selected based on a systematic literature review and five consulting firm models were selected based on the author's industry knowledge. The chosen models were analyzed to determine 10 categories of dimensions. Then they are assessed on a 1–5 scale for how applicable they are in the 10 categories of dimensions. The five “consulting firm” models have a first-mover advantage, are more widely used in industry and are more applicable, but some require payment, and they lack published details and validation. The 19 “peer reviewed” models are not as widely used, lack awareness in the industry and are not as easy to apply because of no web tool for self-assessment, but they are improving. The categories defined to characterize the models and facilitate comparisons for users include “Information Technology (IT) and Cyber-Physical System (CPS) and Data,” “Strategy and Organization,” “Supply Chain and Logistics,” “Products and Services,” “Culture and Employees,” “Technology and Capabilities,” “Customer and Market,” “Cybersecurity and Risk,” “Leadership and Management” and “Governance and Compliance.” The analyzed maturity models were particularly weak in the areas of cybersecurity, leadership and governance. Researchers and practitioners can use this review with consideration of their specific needs to determine if a maturity model is applicable or if a new model needs to be developed. The review can also aid in the development of maturity models through the discussion of each of the dimension categories. Finally, compared to existing reviews of SM maturity models, this research determines comprehensive dimension categories and focuses on applicability and drawbacks.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Unexpected Short-period Variability in Dwarf Carbon Stars from the Zwicky Transient Facility

Dwarf carbon (dC) stars, main-sequence stars showing carbon molecular bands, are enriched by mass transfer from a previous asymptotic-giant-branch (AGB) companion, which has since evolved to a white dwarf. While previous studies have found radial-velocity variations for large samples of dCs, there are still relatively few dC orbital periods in the literature and no dC eclipsing binaries have yet been found. Here, we analyze photometric light curves from DR5 of the Zwicky Transient Facility for a sample of 944 dC stars. From these light curves, we identify 34 periodically variable dC stars. Remarkably, of the periodic dCs, 82% have periods less than two days. We also provide spectroscopic follow-up for four of these periodic systems, measuring radial velocity variations in three of them. Short-period dCs are almost certainly post-common-envelope binary systems, because the periodicity is most likely related to the orbital period, with tidally locked rotation and photometric modulation on the dC either from spots or from ellipsoidal variations. We discuss evolutionary scenarios that these binaries may have taken to accrete sufficient C-rich material while avoiding truncation of the thermally pulsing AGB phase needed to provide such material in the first place. We compare these dCs to common-envelope models to show that dC stars probably cannot accrete enough C-rich material during the common-envelope phase, suggesting another mechanism like wind-Roche lobe overflow is necessary. The periodic dCs in this paper represent a prime sample for spectroscopic follow-up and for comparison to future models of wind-Roche lobe overflow mass transfer.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Exploring theoretical uncertainties in the hydrodynamic description of relativistic heavy-ion collisions

We explore theoretical uncertainties in the hydrodynamic description of relativistic heavy-ion collisions by examining the full nonlinear causality conditions and quantifying the second-order transport coefficients' role on flow observables. The causality conditions impose physical constraints on the maximum allowed values of inverse Reynolds numbers during the hydrodynamic evolution. Including additional second-order gradient terms in the Denicol-Niemi-Molnár-Rischke (DNMR) theory significantly shrinks the casual regions compared to those in the Israel-Stewart hydrodynamics. For Au + Au collisions, we find the variations of flow observables are small with and without imposing the necessary causality conditions, suggesting a robust extraction of the quark-gluon plasma's transport coefficients in previous model-to-data comparisons. However, sizable sensitivity is present in small p + Au collisions, which poses challenges to study the small systems' collectivity.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

High-z galaxies with JWST and local analogues – it is not only star formation

ABSTRACT I present an analysis of the JWST NIRSpec data of SMACS 0723 released as Early Release Observations. As part of this three new redshifts are provided, bringing the total of reliable redshifts to 14. I propose a modification to the direct abundance determination method that reduces sensitivity to flux calibration uncertainties by a factor of ∼3 and show that the resulting abundances are in good agreement with Bayesian photoionization models of the rest-frame optical spectrum. I also show that 6355 is most likely a narrow-line active galactic nucleus (AGN) with $M_*\lt 10^9\, \mathrm{M}_\odot$ at z = 7.66 and argue that 10 612 might also have an AGN contribution to its flux through comparison to photoionization models and low-redshift analogues. Under the assumption that the lines come from star formation, I find that the galaxies have gas depletion times of ∼107 yr, comparable to similar galaxies locally. I also identify a population of possibly shock-dominated galaxies at z < 3, whose near-IR emission lines plausibly come nearly all from shocks and discuss their implications. I close with a discussion of the potential for biases in the determination of the mass–metallicity relation using samples defined by detected [O iii]4363 and show using low-z galaxies that this can lead to biases of up to 0.5 dex with a systematic trend with mass.

Brinchmann, Jarle (ORCID:0000000343598797)↗

Multi-Scale Modeling of Hydrogen Transport in a Porous Fuel Cell Anode

Proton-exchange-membrane fuel cells (PEMFC) are a clean energy conversion alternative to traditional fossil-fuel combustion; however, transport resistances in the electrode pose a lower-limit to catalyst loading and commercialization of PEMFCs. PEMFCs consist of simultaneous hydrogen (H 2 ) oxidation and oxygen (O 2 ) reduction at the anode and cathode, respectively. Here, while oxygen transport resistances in PEMFCs have been widely studied both experimentally and analytically, hydrogen transport resistances are less understood. Herein, we present a physics-based model that encompasses multi-scale transport within the anode side of the PEMFC. The O 2 in the cathode here is omitted and replaced with H 2 to deconvolute O 2 transport resistance contributions, similar to that of a hydrogen pump. Replication of the hydrogen pump setup allows for comparison of the model against experimental analysis of H 2 gas-transport resistance in H 2 limiting-current experiments, which can also inform gas transport (including oxygen) in general. Herein, we present a multi-scale analytical model of the porous anode catalyst layers and individual catalyst agglomerates that enables determination of the effects of electrode morphology such as agglomerate size, catalyst loading, etc. on H 2 transport resistance through the porous electrode to complement and better understand H 2 limiting current experiments and deconvolute local H 2 transport resistances.

Zhang, Rosa↗

Atomic-Level Features for Kinetic Monte Carlo Models of Complex Chemistry from Molecular Dynamics Simulations

The high computational cost of evaluating atomic interactions recently motivated the development of computationally inexpensive kinetic models, which can be parametrized from MD simulations of complex chemistry of thousands of species or other processes and accelerate the prediction of the chemical evolution by up to four order of magnitude. Such models go beyond the commonly employed potential energy surface fitting methods in that they are aimed purely at describing kinetic effects. So far, such kinetic models utilize molecular descriptions of reactions and have been constrained to only reproduce molecules previously observed in MD simulations. Therefore, these descriptions fail to predict the reactivity of unobserved molecules, for example in the case of large molecules or solids. In this work, we propose a new approach for the extraction of reaction mechanisms and reaction rates from MD simulations, namely the use of atomic-level features. Using the complex chemical network of hydrocarbon pyrolysis as example, it is demonstrated that kinetic models built using atomic features are able to explore chemical reaction pathways never observed in the MD simulations used to parametrize them, a critical feature to describe rare events. Atomic-level features are shown to construct reaction mechanisms and estimate reaction rates of unknown molecular species from elementary atomic events. Through comparisons of the model ability to extrapolate to longer simulation timescales and different chemical compositions than the ones used for parameterization, it is demonstrated that kinetic models employing atomic features retain the same level of accuracy and transferability as the use of features based on molecular species, while being more compact and parametrized with less data. We also find that atomic features can better describe the formation of large molecules enabling the simultaneous description of small molecules and condensed phases.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Multilayer interface tracking model of pure tungsten oxidation

Here, we present a numerical model to predict oxide scale growth on tungsten surfaces under exposure to oxygen at high temperatures. The model captures the formation of four thermodynamically-compatible oxide sublayers, WO 2 , WO 2.72 , WO 2.9 , and WO 3 , on top of the metal substrate. Oxide layer growth is simulated by tracking the oxide/oxide and oxide/metal interfaces using a sharp-interface Stefan model coupled to diffusion kinetics. The model is parameterized using selected experimental measurements and electronic structure calculations of the diffusivities of all the oxide subphases involved. We simulate oxide growth at temperatures of 600°C and above, extracting the power law growth exponents in each case, which we find to deviate from classical parabolic growth in several cases. We conduct a comparison of the model predictions with an extensive experimental data set, with reasonable agreement at most temperatures. While many gaps in our understanding still exist, this work is a first attempt at embedding the thermodynamic and kinetic complexity of tungsten oxide growth into a comprehensive mesoscale kinetic model that attempts to capture the essential features of tungsten oxidation to fill existing knowledge gaps and guide and enhance future tungsten oxidation models.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Representation of Leaf-to-Canopy Radiative Transfer Processes Improves Simulation of Far-Red Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence in the Community Land Model Version 5

Recent advances in satellite observations of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) provide a new opportunity to evaluate and constrain the simulation of terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP). Accurate representation of the processes driving SIF emission and the radiative transfer of SIF to remote sensing sensors is an essential prerequisite for the evaluation and data assimilation. Recently, SIF simulations have been incorporated into several land surface models, but the scaling of SIF from leaf-level to canopy level is usually not well-represented. In this work, we incorporate the simulation of far-red SIF observed at nadir into the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5). An efficient and accurate method based on escape probability is developed to scale SIF from leaf-level to top-of-canopy while taking clumping and the radiative transfer processes into account. SIF simulated by CLM5 and a canopy-level model agreed well at sites except one in needle leaf forest (R2>0.91, root-mean-square error < 0.19W m -2 sr -1 um -1 ), and captured the day-to-day variation of tower-measured SIF at temperate forest sites (R 2 >0.68). At the global scale, simulated SIF generally captured the spatial and seasonal pat37 terns of satellite-observed SIF (R2 > 0.76 except for tropical forest). Factors including the fluorescence emission model, clumping, bidirectional effect, and canopy properties (leaf optical properties and leaf area index) had considerable impacts on SIF simulation, and the discrepancies between simulated and observed SIF varied with plant functional type. By improving the representation of radiative transfer for SIF simulation, our model allows better comparisons between simulated and observed SIF towards constraining and evaluating GPP simulations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Quantum Fokker-Planck modeling of degenerate electrons

In this work, an implicit and conservative numerical scheme is proposed for the isotropic quantum Fokker-Planck equation describing the evolution of degenerate electrons subject to elastic collisions with other electrons and ions. The electron-ion and electron-electron collision operators are discretized using a discontinuous Galerkin method, and the electron energy distribution is updated by an implicit time integration method. The numerical scheme is designed to satisfy all conservation laws exactly. Numerical tests and comparisons with other modeling approaches are shown to demonstrate the accuracy and conservation properties of the proposed method.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Characterizing the combined impact of nucleation-driven precipitation and secondary passivation on carbon mineralization

The evolution of mineral reactive surface area is one of the primary phenomena controlling the progression and extent of mineral carbonation. The CO 2 mineralization begins with nucleation of crystals that provide initial surface area for subsequent growth of the mineral. However, many reactive transport models (RTMs) for CO 2 mineralization do not include the nucleation process. The few RTMs that do include it are yet to be validated against experimental data. Similarly, many RTMs ignore passivating effects of the secondary mineral, which coats the surface of the dissolving mineral, slow down the reaction process, and reduce the total extent of carbonation. Furthermore, the combined impact of nucleation and passivation on carbon mineralization is yet to be properly characterized. In this study, we consider the coupled effects of passivation and nucleation on the mineralization extent. The nucleation-driven precipitation model relies on the formation of nuclei to provide a surface area for crystal growth, while a new model is proposed to account for passivation effects. Our analysis shows that (i) omission of nucleation leads to overestimation of extent of mineralization, and (ii) omission of passivation leads to overestimation of host rock reactivity. The model was evaluated via comparison with CO 2 mineralization data from the literature and models that ignore these processes. We observed that including nucleation and passivation lead to closer predictions of the CO 2 mineralization extent. Therefore, this study highlights the importance of including the coupled nucleation-driven precipitation and secondary passivation in RTMs. Here, the findings from the study can be applied in various scientific and engineering applications such as petroleum production, cement carbonation, CO 2 sequestration, chemical weathering, and concrete degradation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Operando FTIR investigation of salt dynamics in Li-ion batteries during fast charging

Li-ion batteries, when charged at fast-charging rates ($>$2C), suffer from reduced lifetimes and can undergo catastrophic failure. During high-rate charging, Li-ions are unable to rapidly transport through high-loading electrodes ($>$4 mAh cm −2 ). This results in unequal charge distributions, potentials, and utilization of the active material, which can lead to Li plating. Li-ion concentration polarization, in which Li-ions deplete in the anode and accumulate in the cathode during charging, precedes Li plating. An operando FTIR-ATR graphite/NMC cell developed in this research captured Li-ion concentration polarization in real-time. During fast charging, decreases in Li-ion concentration ($>$95%) were measured at the back of the anode. This is the first verification of complete Li-ion depletion within the anode at high C-rates. The measurements also showed graphite stage transition. A P2D model was developed for comparison to the operando measurements. The measurements agreed with the model in some cases, but disparities existed at high C-rates and loadings. In the experiment, the Li-ion concentration often failed to recover to 1.2 M until several hours after charging, whereas the model Li-ion concentration rapidly recovered. The contrast between the model and experiment results indicates that further investigation is required to improve understanding of Li-ion concentration dynamics during fast charging.

25 - ENERGY STORAGE↗

Efficient Optimization of Energy Recovery From Geothermal Reservoirs With Recurrent Neural Network Predictive Models

Improving the long-term energy production performance of geothermal reservoirs can be accomplished by optimizing field development and management plans. Reliable prediction models, however, are needed to evaluate and optimize the performance of the underlying reservoirs under various operation and development strategies. In traditional frameworks, physics-based simulation models are used to predict the energy production performance of geothermal reservoirs. However, detailed simulation models are not trivial to construct, require a reliable description of the reservoir conditions and properties, and entail high computational complexity. Data-driven predictive models can offer an efficient alternative for use in optimization workflows. This paper presents an optimization framework for net power generation in geothermal reservoirs using a variant of the recurrent neural network (RNN) as a data-driven predictive model. The RNN architecture is developed and trained to replace the simulation model for computationally efficient prediction of the objective function and its gradients with respect to the well control variables. The net power generation performance of the field is optimized by automatically adjusting the mass flow rate of production and injection wells over 12 years, using a gradient-based local search algorithm. Two field-scale examples are presented to investigate the performance of the developed data-driven prediction and optimization framework. Furthermore, the prediction and optimization results from the RNN model are evaluated through comparison with the results obtained by using a numerical simulation model of a real geothermal reservoir.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Dwarf Galaxies at Cosmic Noon: New JWST Constraints on Satellite Models and Subhalo Tidal Evolution

The advent of JWST has revolutionized the study of faint satellite galaxies at z ≳ 1, enabling statistical constraints on galaxy evolution and the galaxy–halo connection in a previously unexplored mass and redshift regime. We compare satellite abundances at 1 < z < 3.5 from recent JWST observations with predictions from cosmological dark-matter-only zoom-in simulations. We identify and quantify several sources of biases that can impact theoretical satellite counts, finding that assumptions about subhalo tidal evolution introduce the largest uncertainty in predictions for the satellite mass function. Using a flexible galaxy disruption model, we explore a range of disruption scenarios, spanning hydrodynamically motivated and idealized prescriptions, to bracket plausible physical outcomes. We show that varying galaxy durability can change the predicted satellite mass functions by a factor of ∼3.5. The JWST data and our fiducial model are consistent within 1σ–2σ across the full redshift (1 < z < 3.5) and stellar mass (M⋆ > 10 7 M ⊙ ) range probed. We find evidence that subhalos are at least as long-lived as predicted by hydrodynamic simulations. Our framework will enable robust constraints on the tidal evolution of subhalos with future observations. This work presents the first direct comparison between cosmological models and observations of the high-redshift satellite population in this low-mass regime. These results showcase JWST’s emerging power to test structure formation in the first half of the Universe in a new domain and to constrain the physical processes driving the evolution of low-mass galaxies across cosmic time.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Neutrinos and Gamma Rays from Seyfert Galaxies Constrain the Properties of Coronal Turbulence

The TeV neutrino signal observed by IceCube from the active galactic nucleus NGC 1068 can probe its innermost coronal regions. If these neutrinos originate from hadrons accelerated within a magnetized turbulent corona, their intensity and spectrum depend on the turbulent magnetic field strength and turbulence coherence scale. The gamma rays accompanying neutrino production are absorbed in this optically thick environment, in a way that depends sensitively on the size of the corona. By a joint fit of the IceCube and Fermi-LAT observations, we translate the multimessenger signal from NGC 1068 and the tentative signal from NGC 7469 into quantitative constraints on coronal properties. NGC 1068, with a significant TeV neutrino excess, favors a compact, strongly magnetized corona with a large turbulence coherence length relative to the coronal size. NGC 7469, with two ∼100 TeV neutrino events, points instead to a somewhat larger corona with much smaller coherence length and high magnetization, but a very small fraction of energy in nonthermal protons. We obtain the diffuse flux from a population of Seyfert galaxies identical to either NGC 1068 or NGC 7469. Finally, we consider a third scenario, motivated by the spectral break observed in the diffuse neutrino flux at tens of TeV, with coronal properties intermediate between the two point-source-inspired models. To enable detailed comparisons with the IceCube and electromagnetic observations, we release our model predictions in a GitHub repository.

Testagrossa, Federico [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchr↗

Validating and optimizing mismatch tolerance of Doppler backscattering measurements with the beam model (invited)

In this work, we use the beam model of Doppler backscattering (DBS), which was previously derived from beam tracing and the reciprocity theorem, to shed light on mismatch attenuation. This attenuation of the backscattered signal occurs when the wavevector of the probe beam’s electric field is not in the plane perpendicular to the magnetic field. Correcting for this effect is important for determining the amplitude of the actual density fluctuations. Previous preliminary comparisons between the model and Mega-Ampere Spherical Tokamak (MAST) plasmas were promising. In this work, we quantitatively account for this effect on DIII-D, a conventional tokamak. We compare the predicted and measured mismatch attenuation in various DIII-D, MAST, and MAST-U plasmas, showing that the beam model is applicable in a wide variety of situations. Finally, we performed a preliminary parameter sweep and found that the mismatch tolerance can be improved by optimizing the probe beam’s width and curvature at launch. This is potentially a design consideration for new DBS systems.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗