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NASA NTRS2015

NASA's Meteoroid Environments Office's Response to Three Significant Bolide Events Over North America

Being the only U.S. Government entity charged with monitoring the meteor environment, the Meteoroid Environment Office has deployed a network of all sky and wide field meteor cameras, along with the appropriate software tools to quickly analyze data from these systems. However, the coverage of this network is still quite limited, forcing the incorporation of data from other cameras posted to the internet in analyzing many of the fireballs reported by the public and media. A procedure has been developed that determines the analysis process for a given fireball event based on the types and amount of data available. The differences between these analysis process will be explained and outlined by looking at three bolide events, all of which were large enough to produce meteorites. The first example is an ideal event - a bright meteor that occurred over NASA's All Sky Camera Network on August 2, 2014. With clear video of the event from various angles, a high-accuracy trajectory, beginning and end heights, orbit and approximate brightness/size of the event are able to be found very quickly using custom software. The bolide had the potential to have dropped meteorites, so dark flight analysis and modeling was performed, allowing potential fall locations to be mapped as a function of meteorite mass. The second case study was a bright bolide that occurred November 3, 2014 over West Virginia. This was just north of the NASA southeastern all-sky network, and just south of the Ohio-Pennsylvania network. This case study showcases the MEO's ability to use social media and various internet sources to locate videos of the event from obscure sources (including the Washington Monument) for anything that will permit a determination of a basic trajectory and fireball light curve The third case study will highlight the ability to use doppler weather radar in helping locate meteorites, which enable a definitive classification of the impactor. The input data and analysis steps differ for each case study, but the goals remain the same - a trajectory, orbit, and mass estimate for the bolide within hours of the event, and, for events with a high probability of producing meteorites, a location of the strewn field within a day.

Blaauw, Rhiannon C.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A GPU-based Approach for Turbomachinery Application

Accurate modeling of coolant airflows, which form protective films over turbine blades, is essential for designing fuel-efficient and environmentally sustainable gas turbine engines. Excessive coolant reduces thermal efficiency, while insufficient coolant leads to blade overheating and causes damage. Therefore, precise prediction of flow field interactions with cooling air is critical for optimizing turbine performance. This study numerically investigates the cooling effectiveness of purge and film cooling flows within a high-pressure turbine (HPT) rotor using Large Eddy Simulation (LES). The study utilizes NASA Glenn Research Center’s Glenn-HT solver. The simulation models ethe conditions of the Penn State University START rotating rig. A high-fidelity structured mesh comprising up to 800 million cells is employed to resolve high-Reynolds number flow (Re ≈ 350,000) and to capture intricate secondary flow structures, including tip leakage and purge-induced vortices. Film cooling effectiveness computations are highly sensitive to boundary conditions at the cooling holes and to grid resolution. Even with well-resolved grids and included plena, strong mixing challenges traditional eddy viscosity models. To address this, a simplified configuration is simulated: a truncated row of shaped holes on the suction side near the leading edge and a row on the pressure side, both fed from internal plena while the purge slot and tip clearance are also modeled. Two isothermal LES cases are conducted at two distinct wall temperatures, which yield the adiabatic wall temperature and the heat transfer coefficient. The definition and means of computation of the effectiveness is discussed in this paper. The simulations reveal detailed three-dimensional unsteady flow features, including coherent vortical structures and secondary flows originating from the purge cavity. Film cooling effectiveness and Nusselt number distributions are presented for both the blade surface and tip, highlighting regions of elevated heat transfer and complex thermal behavior. These findings underscore the importance of high-resolution LES and realistic boundary conditions in capturing the dynamics of purge and film cooling, offering valuable insights for improving turbine blade design and thermal management strategies.

Gas Turbine↗

NASA NTRS2001

Cirrus Parcel Model Comparison Project: The Critical Components to Simulate Cirrus Initiation Explicitly - Phase 1

The Cirrus Parcel Model Comparison Project, a project of the GCSS (GEWEX Cloud System Studies) Working Group on Cirrus Cloud Systems, involves the systematic comparison of current models of ice crystal nucleation and growth for specified, typical, cirrus cloud environments. In Phase I of the project reported here, simulated cirrus cloud microphysical properties are compared for situations of "warm" (40 C) and "cold" (-60 C) cirrus, both subject to updrafts of 4, 20 and 100 centimeters per second. Five models participated. The various models employ explicit microphysical schemes wherein the size distribution of each class of particles (aerosols and ice crystals) is resolved into bins or treated separately. Simulations are made including both the homogeneous and heterogeneous ice nucleation mechanisms. A single initial aerosol population of sulfuric acid particles is prescribed for all simulations. To isolate the treatment of the homogeneous freezing (of haze droplets) nucleation process, the heterogeneous nucleation mechanism is disabled for a second parallel set of simulations. Qualitative agreement is found for the homogeneous-nucleation- only simulations, e.g., the number density of nucleated ice crystals increases with the strength of the prescribed updraft. However, significant quantitative differences are found. Detailed analysis reveals that the homogeneous nucleation rate, haze particle solution concentration, and water vapor uptake rate by ice crystal growth (particularly as controlled by the deposition coefficient) are critical components that lead to differences in predicted microphysics. Systematic bias exists between results based on a modified classical theory approach and models using an effective freezing temperature approach to the treatment of nucleation. Each approach is constrained by critical freezing data from laboratory studies, but each includes assumptions that can only be justified by further laboratory research. Consequently, it is not yet clear if the two approaches can be made consistent. Large haze particles may deviate considerably from equilibrium size in moderate to strong updrafts (20-100 centimeters per second) at -60 C when the commonly invoked equilibrium assumption is lifted. The resulting difference in particle-size- dependent solution concentration of haze particles may significantly affect the ice particle formation rate during the initial nucleation interval. The uptake rate for water vapor excess by ice crystals is another key component regulating the total number of nucleated ice crystals. This rate, the product of particle number concentration and ice crystal diffusional growth rate, which is particularly sensitive to the deposition coefficient when ice particles are small, modulates the peak particle formation rate achieved in an air parcel and the duration of the active nucleation time period. The effects of heterogeneous nucleation are most pronounced in weak updraft situations. Vapor competition by the heterogeneously nucleated ice crystals may limit the achieved ice supersaturation and thus suppresses the contribution of homogeneous nucleation. Correspondingly, ice crystal number density is markedly reduced. Definitive laboratory and atmospheric benchmark data are needed for the heterogeneous nucleation process. Inter-model differences are correspondingly greater than in the case of the homogeneous nucleation process acting alone.

Lin, Ruei-Fong↗

NASA NTRS2000

Coupling Satellite and Ground-Based Instruments to Map Climate Forcing by Anthropogenic Aerosols

Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols is a significant but highly uncertain factor in global climate change. Only satellites can offer the global coverage essential to reducing this uncertainty; however, satellite measurements must be coupled with correlative, in situ measurements both to constrain the aerosol optical properties required in satellite retrieval algorithms and to provide chemical identification of aerosol sources. This grant funded the first two years of a three-year project which seeks to develop methodologies for combining spaceborne lidar with in-situ aerosol data sets to improve estimates of direct aerosol climate forcing. Progress under this two-year grant consisted in the development and deployment of a new in-situ capability for measuring aerosol 180' backscatter and the extinction-to-backscatter ratio. This new measurement capacity allows definitive lidar/in-situ comparisons and improves our ability to interpret lidar data in terms of climatically relevant quantities such as the extinction coefficient and optical depth. Measurements were made along the coast of Washington State, in Central Illinois, over the Indian Ocean, and in the Central Pacific. Thus, this research, combined with previous measurements by others, is rapidly building toward a global data set of extinction-to-backscatter ratio for key aerosol types. Such information will be critical to interpreting lidar data from the upcoming PICASSO-CENA, or P-C, satellite mission. Another aspect of this project is to investigate innovative ways to couple the lidar-satellite signal with targeted in-situ measurements toward a direct determination of aerosol forcing. This aspect is progressing in collaboration with NASA Langley's P-C lidar simulator and radiative transfer modeling by the University of Lille, France.

Charlson, Robert J.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Formal methods in the design of Ada 1995

Formal, mathematical methods are most useful when applied early in the design and implementation of a software system--that, at least, is the familiar refrain. I will report on a modest effort to apply formal methods at the earliest possible stage, namely, in the design of the Ada 95 programming language itself. This talk is an 'experience report' that provides brief case studies illustrating the kinds of problems we worked on, how we approached them, and the extent (if any) to which the results proved useful. It also derives some lessons and suggestions for those undertaking future projects of this kind. Ada 95 is the first revision of the standard for the Ada programming language. The revision began in 1988, when the Ada Joint Programming Office first asked the Ada Board to recommend a plan for revising the Ada standard. The first step in the revision was to solicit criticisms of Ada 83. A set of requirements for the new language standard, based on those criticisms, was published in 1990. A small design team, the Mapping Revision Team (MRT), became exclusively responsible for revising the language standard to satisfy those requirements. The MRT, from Intermetrics, is led by S. Tucker Taft. The work of the MRT was regularly subject to independent review and criticism by a committee of distinguished Reviewers and by several advisory teams--for example, the two User/Implementor teams, each consisting of an industrial user (attempting to make significant use of the new language on a realistic application) and a compiler vendor (undertaking, experimentally, to modify its current implementation in order to provide the necessary new features). One novel decision established the Language Precision Team (LPT), which investigated language proposals from a mathematical point of view. The LPT applied formal mathematical analysis to help improve the design of Ada 95 (e.g., by clarifying the language proposals) and to help promote its acceptance (e.g., by identifying a verifiable subset that would meet the needs of safety-critical applications). The first LPT project, which ran from the fall of 1990 unti the end of 1992, produced studies of several language issues: optimization, sharing and storage, tasking and protected records, overload resolution, the floating point model, distribution, program erros, and object-oriented programming. The second LPT project, in 1994, formally modeled the dynamic semantics of a large part of the (almost) final language definition, looking especially for interactions between language features.

Guaspari, David↗

NASA NTRS1995

From LDEF to a national Space Environment and Effects (SEE) program: A natural progression

As the LDEF program draws to a close, it leaves in place the fundamental building blocks for a Space Environment and Effects (SEE) program. Results from LDEF data analyses and investigations now form a substantial core of knowledge on the long term effects of the space environment on materials, system and structures. In addition, these investigations form the basic structure of a critically-needed SEE archive and database system. An agency-wide effort is required to capture all elements of a SEE program to provide a more comprehensive and focused approach to understanding the space environment, determining the best techniques for both flight and ground-based experimentation, updating the models which predict both the environments and those effects on subsystems and spacecraft, and, finally, ensuring that this multitudinous information is properly maintained, and inserted into spacecraft design programs. Many parts and pieces of a SEE program already exist at various locations to fulfill specific needs. The primary purpose of this program, under the direction of the Office of Advanced Concepts and Technology (OACT) in NASA Headquarters, is to take advantage of these parts; apply synergisms where possible; identify and when possible fill-in gaps; coordinate and advocate a comprehensive SEE program. The SEE program must coordinate and support the efforts of well-established technical communities wherein the bulk of the work will continue to be done. The SEE program will consist of a NASA-led SEE Steering Committee, consisting of government and industry users, with the responsibility for coordination between technology developers and NASA customers; and Technical Working Groups with primary responsibility for program technical content in response to user needs. The Technical Working Groups are as follows: Materials and Processes; Plasma and Fields; Ionizing Radiation; Meteoroids and Orbital Debris; Neutral External Contamination; Thermosphere, Thermal, and Solar Conditions; Electromagnetic Effects; Integrated Assessments and Databases. Specific technology development tasks will be solicited through a NASA Research Announcement to be released in May of 1994. The areas in which tasks are solicited include: (1) engineering environment definitions, (2) environments and effects design guidelines, (3) environments and effects assessment models and databases, and (4) flight/ground simulation/technology assessment data.

Bowles, David E.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Should Pruning be a Pre-Processor of any Linear System?

There are many real-world problems whose mathematical models turn out to be linear systems Ax = b, where A is an m x n matrix. Each equation of the linear system is an information. An information, in a physical problem, such as 4 mangoes, 6 bananas, and 5 oranges cost $10, is mathematically modeled as an equation 4x(sub 1) + 6x(sub 2) + 5x(sub 3) = 10 , where x(sub 1), x(sub 2), x(sub 3) are each cost of one mango, that of one banana, and that of one orange, respectively. All the information put together in a specified context, constitutes the physical problem and need not be all distinct. Some of these could be redundant, which cannot be readily identified by inspection. The resulting mathematical model will thus have equations corresponding to this redundant information and hence are linearly dependent and thus superfluous. Consequently, these equations once identified should be better pruned in the process of solving the system. The benefits are (i) less computation and hence less error and consequently a better quality of solution and (ii) reduced storage requirements. In literature, the pruning concept is not in vogue so far although it is most desirable. It is assumed that at least one information, i.e. one equation is known to be correct and which will be our first equation. In a numerical linear system, the system could be slightly inconsistent or inconsistent of varying degree. If the system is too inconsistent, then we should fall back on to the physical problem (PP), check the correctness of the PP derived from the material universe, modify it, if necessary, and then check the corresponding mathematical model (MM) and correct it. In nature/material universe, inconsistency is completely nonexistent. If the MM becomes inconsistent, it could be due to error introduced by the concerned measuring device and/or due to assumptions made on the PP to obtain an MM which is relatively easily solvable or simply due to human error. No measuring device can usually measure a quantity with an accuracy greater that 0.005% or, equivalently with a relative error less than 0.005%. Hence measurement error is unavoidable in a numerical linear system when the quantities are continuous (or even discrete with extremely large number). Assumptions, though not desirable, are usually made when we find the problem sufficiently difficult to be solved within the available means/tools/resources and hence distort the PP and the corresponding MM. The . error thus introduced in the system could (not always necessarily though) make the system somewhat inconsistent. If the inconsistency (contradiction) is too much then one should definitely not proceed to solve the system in terms of getting a least-squares solution or the minimum-norm least-squares solution. All these solutions will be invariably of no real-world use. If, on the other hand, inconsistency is reasonably low, i.e. the system is near-consistent or, equivalently, has near-linearly-dependent rows, then the foregoing solutions are useful. Pruning in such a near-consistent system should be performed based on the desired accuracy and on the definition of near-linear dependence. In this article, we discuss pruning over various kinds of linear systems and strongly suggest its use as a pre-processor or as a part of an algorithm. Ideally pruning should (i) be a part of the solution process (algorithm) of the system, (ii) reduce both computational error and complexity of the process, and (iii) take into account the numerical zero defined in the context. These are precisely what we achieve through our proposed O(mn2) algorithm presented in Matlab, that uses a subprogram of solving a single linear equation and that has embedded in it the pruning.

Sen, Syamal K.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Low Stretch Diffusion Flames Over a Solid Fuel

A unique new way to study low gravity flames in normal gravity has been developed. To study flame structure and extinction characteristics in low stretch environments, a normal gravity low-stretch diffusion flame is generated using a cylindrical PMMA sample of varying large radii. Foutch and T'ien used the radiative loss as well as a densimetric Froude number to characterize the blowoff (small Da) and quenching extinction (large Da) boundaries in stagnation-point diffusion flames under various convective conditions. An important conclusion of this study was that the shape and location of the extinction boundary, as well as a number of important flame characteristics, were almost identical for the buoyant, forced, and mixed convective environments they modeled. This theory indicates it should be possible to understand a material's burning characteristics in the low stretch environment of spacecraft (induced by fans and crew movements) by understanding its burning characteristics in an equivalent Earth-based stretch environment (induced by normal gravity buoyancy). Similarly, the material's burning characteristics in Lunar or Martian stretch environments (induced by partial gravity buoyancy) can be assessed. Equivalent stretch rates can be determined as a function of gravity, imposed flow, and geometry. A generalized expression for stretch rate which captures mixed convection includes both buoyant and forced stretch is defined as a = a(sub f) ((1 + (a(sub b))exp 2/(a(sub b))exp 2))exp 1/2. For purely buoyant flow, the equivalent stretch rate is a(sub b) = [(rho(exp e)-rho(exp *)/rho(sub e)][g/R](exp 1/2). For purely forced flow, the equivalent stretch rate is characterized by either a(sub f)= 2U(sub infinity)/R for a cylinder, or a(sub f)=U(sub jet)/d(sub jet) for a jet impinging on a planar surface. In these experiments, the buoyant stretch is varied through R, the radius of curvature, but the buoyant stretch could also be varied through g, the gravity level. In this way the effect of partial gravity, such as those found on the Moon (1/6 g) or Mars (1/3 g) can be captured in the definition of flame stretch.

Olson, S. L.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

LES-Based Analysis of Film Cooling in a High-Pressure Turbine Rotor Including Effects of Purge and Tip Flow

Secondary Flows↗

NASA NTRS2011

Should Pruning be a Pre-Processor of any Linear System?

There are many real-world problems whose mathematical models turn out to be linear systems Ax = b , where A is an m by x n matrix. Each equation of the linear system is an information. An information, in a physical problem, such as 4 mangoes, 6 bananas, and 5 oranges cost $10, is mathematically modeled as 4x(sub 1) + 6x(sub 2) + 5x (sub 3) = 10, where x(sub 1), x(sub 2), x(sub 3) are each cost of one mango, that of one banana, and that of one orange, respectively. All the information put together in a specified context, constitutes the physical problem and need not be all distinct. Some of these could be redundant, which cannot be readily identified by inspection. The resulting mathematical model will thus have equations corresponding to this redundant information and hence are linearly dependent and thus superfluous. Consequently, these equations once identified should be better pruned in the process of solving the system. The benefits are (i) less computation and hence less error and consequently a better quality of solution and (ii) reduced storage requirements. In literature, the pruning concept is not in vogue so far although it is most desirable. In a numerical linear system, the system could be slightly inconsistent or inconsistent of varying degree. If the system is too inconsistent, then we should fall back on to the physical problem (PP), check the correctness of the PP derived from the material universe, modify it, if necessary, and then check the corresponding mathematical model (MM) and correct it. In nature/material universe, inconsistency is completely nonexistent. If the MM becomes inconsistent, it could be due to error introduced by the concerned measuring device and/or due to assumptions made on the PP to obtain an MM which is relatively easily solvable or simply due to human error. No measuring device can usually measure a quantity with an accuracy greater that 0.005% or, equivalently with a relative error less than 0.005%. Hence measurement error is unavoidable in a numerical linear system when the quantities are continuous (or even discrete with extremely large number). Assumptions, though not desirable, are usually made when we find the problem sufficiently difficult to be solved within the available means/tools/resources and hence distort the PP and the corresponding MM. The error thus introduced in the system could (not always necessarily though) make the system somewhat inconsistent. If the inconsistency (contradiction) is too much then one should definitely not proceed to solve the system in terms of getting a least-squares solution or a minimum norm solution or the minimum-norm least-squares solution. All these solutions will be invariably of no real-world use. If, on the other hand, inconsistency is reasonably low, i.e. the system is near-consistent or, equivalently, has near-linearly-dependent rows, then the foregoing solutions are useful. Pruning in such a near-consistent system should be performed based on the desired accuracy and on the definition of near-linear dependence. In this article, we discuss pruning over various kinds of linear systems and strongly suggest its use as a pre-processor or as a part of an algorithm. Ideally pruning should (i) be a part of the solution process (algorithm) of the system, (ii) reduce both computational error and complexity of the process, and (iii) take into account the numerical zero defined in the context. These are precisely what we achieve through our proposed O(mn2) algorithm presented in Matlab, that uses a subprogram of solving a single linear equation and that has embedded in it the pruning.

Sen, Syamal K.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparison of Artemis 2 and Artemis 5 Model Outcomes Using the Impact Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool

BACKGROUND The Artemis campaign is a Moon exploration program with a series of six planned missions, five of which will be crewed. These five crewed missions will contain a single mission segment (space flight), or multiple mission segments involving space flight (Orion), lunar landing (LTV) and/or space habitat (Gateway). Each crewed segment faces the risk of unique medical conditions, necessitating medical sets/kits tailored to those specificities. To support and enable a data-driven and evidence-based decision-making process through out a mission’s life cycle, a software tool called IMPACT was developed. Using probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies, IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a novel tool built for analyzing the possibility of encountering complex medical risks during space flight, and for identifying the medical resources and capabilities needed to treat those potential at-risk medical conditions. This presentation will seek to compare IMPACT’s computational results upon potential complex space medical conditions (e.g., sprain/strain back or sleep disturbance) using IMPACT’s risk metrics and the associated optimized medical sets/kits between two Artemis missions: single segment Artemis 2 and multi-segmented Artemis 5. OVERVIEW By identifying potential medical conditions in space using input criteria such as crew quantity and composition, certain crew physical characteristics, mission duration and mission activities, IMPACT can produce analyses on the type of medical resources and capabilities needed to produce an optimized medical set/kit to address those medical conditions. IMPACT achieves this by performing hundreds of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of missions to build aggregate pictures of medical risk. IMPACT’s risk metrics include loss of crew life (LOCL) – a measure of crew mortality due to medical conditions in space, return to definitive care (RTDC) – the need to perform crew evacuation, and task time lost (TTL) – a measure of the inability to perform activities due to crew disability. These risk metrics are applied to every medical condition identified by IMPACT’s computation analyses for every segment of the mission. Medical sets/kits are optimized to address these medical conditions but must fit within the stated Artemis Design Reference Mission (DRM) request for mass and volume physical size constraints. ANTICIPATED ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSION Using two Artemis missions, Artemis 2 and Artemis 5, IMPACT will provide the analyses for comparison of medical set/kit contents based upon mass and/or volume requirements and identify the at-risk medical conditions within both missions. This paper serves as an initial exploration of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) medical risk calculations between two crewed Artemis missions and is not intended to be deemed the official medical response for the Artemis campaign.

probabilistic risk assessment↗

NASA NTRS2010

A Combined Observational and Modeling Approach to Study Modern Dust Transport from the Patagonia Desert to East Antarctica

The understanding of present atmospheric transport processes from Southern Hemisphere (SH) landmasses to Antarctica can improve the interpretation of stratigraphic data in Antarctic ice cores. In addition, long range transport can deliver key nutrients normally not available to marine ecosystems in the Southern Ocean and may trigger or enhance primary productivity. However, there is a dearth of observational based studies of dust transport in the SH. This work aims to improve current understanding of dust transport in the SH by showing a characterization of two dust events originating in the Patagonia desert (south end of South America). The approach is based on a combined and complementary use of satellite retrievals (detectors MISR, MODIS, GLAS ,POLDER, OMI,), transport model simulation (HYSPLIT) and surface observations near the sources and aerosol measurements in Antarctica (Neumayer and Concordia sites). Satellite imagery and visibility observations confirm dust emission in a stretch of dry lakes along the coast of the Tierra del Fuego (TdF) island (approx.54deg S) and from the shores of the Colihue Huapi lake in Central Patagonia (approx.46deg S) in February 2005. Model simulations initialized by these observations reproduce the timing of an observed increase in dust concentration at the Concordia Station and some of the observed increases in atmospheric aerosol absorption (here used as a dust proxy) in the Neumayer station. The TdF sources were the largest contributors of dust at both sites. The transit times from TdF to the Neumayer and Concordia sites are 6-7 and 9-10 days respectively. Lidar observations and model outputs coincide in placing most of the dust cloud in the boundary layer and suggest significant de- position over the ocean immediately downwind. Boundary layer dust was detected as far as 1800 km from the source and approx.800 km north of the South Georgia Island over the central sub-Antarctic Atlantic Ocean. Although the analysis suggests the presence of dust at approx.1500 km SW of South Africa five days after, the limited capabilities of existing satellite platforms to differentiate between aerosol types do not permit a definitive conclusion. In addition, the model simulations show dust lifting to the free troposphere as it travels south but it could not be confirmed by the satellite observations due to cloudiness. This work demonstrates that complementary information from existing transport models, satellite and surface data can yield a consistent picture of the dust transport from the Patagonia desert to Antarctica. It also illustrates the limitation of using any of these approaches individually to characterize the transport of dust in a heavily cloudy area.

Gasso, S.↗

NASA NTRS2015

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015 Report: Climate Observations and Projections - Chapter 1

During 2013 and 2014, numerous international (IPCC, 2013) and national (Melillo et al., 2014; Gordon, 2014) reports have concluded that human activities are changing the climate, leading to increased vulnerability and risk. Since the industrial revolution, fossil fuel burning, industrial activity, and land use changes have led to a 40% increase in heat-trapping carbon dioxide (CO2), and an approximately 150% increase in methane (CH4), another powerful greenhouse gas (GHG), has been observed. Global temperatures have increased by close to 1 C since 1880 as the upper oceans have warmed and polar ice has retreated. These and other climate changes are projected to accelerate as greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise. In the coming decades, climate change is extremely likely to bring warmer temperatures in the New York metropolitan region (see Box. 1.1 and Fig.1.1 for key definitions and terms). Heat waves are very likely to increase; total annual precipitation will likely increase and brief, intense rainstorms are very likely to increase. Because of incomplete knowledge about exactly how much climate change will occur, choosing among policies for reducing future damages requires prudent risk management (Yohe and Leichenko, 2010; Kunreuther et al., 2013). Given differing risk tolerances among stakeholders, a risk management approach allows for a range of possible climate change outcomes to be examined with associated uncertainties surrounding their likelihoods. The New York City Panel on Climate Change 2 (NPCC2) projections can be used to inform planning across multiple governmental scales (e.g., city, county, state) in the New York metropolitan region. Such coordinated efforts can serve as test cases for successful local, state, and federal coordination for integrated climate adaptation initiatives. This chapter describes the global climate system, and presents observed temperature and precipitation trends and projections for the region. Chapter 2 (NPCC, 2015) focuses on sea level rise and possible changes in coastal storms. Chapter 3 and Chapter 4 (NPCC, 2015) describe efforts to better understand the region's vulnerability to coastal flooding during coastal storms. The treatment of likelihood related to the NPCC projections is similar to that developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth and Fifth Assessment Reports (IPCC, 2007; 2013), with six likelihood categories (Box 1.1 and Fig. 1.1). The assignment of climate hazards to these categories is based on observed data, global climate model simulations, published literature, and expert judgment.

climate change↗

NASA NTRS2009

Compatibility of Segments of Thermoelectric Generators

A method of calculating (usually for the purpose of maximizing) the power-conversion efficiency of a segmented thermoelectric generator is based on equations derived from the fundamental equations of thermoelectricity. Because it is directly traceable to first principles, the method provides physical explanations in addition to predictions of phenomena involved in segmentation. In comparison with the finite-element method used heretofore to predict (without being able to explain) the behavior of a segmented thermoelectric generator, this method is much simpler to implement in practice: in particular, the efficiency of a segmented thermoelectric generator can be estimated by evaluating equations using only hand-held calculator with this method. In addition, the method provides for determination of cascading ratios. The concept of cascading is illustrated in the figure and the definition of the cascading ratio is defined in the figure caption. An important aspect of the method is its approach to the issue of compatibility among segments, in combination with introduction of the concept of compatibility within a segment. Prior approaches involved the use of only averaged material properties. Two materials in direct contact could be examined for compatibility with each other, but there was no general framework for analysis of compatibility. The present method establishes such a framework. The mathematical derivation of the method begins with the definition of reduced efficiency of a thermoelectric generator as the ratio between (1) its thermal-to-electric power-conversion efficiency and (2) its Carnot efficiency (the maximum efficiency theoretically attainable, given its hot- and cold-side temperatures). The derivation involves calculation of the reduced efficiency of a model thermoelectric generator for which the hot-side temperature is only infinitesimally greater than the cold-side temperature. The derivation includes consideration of the ratio (u) between the electric current and heat-conduction power and leads to the concept of compatibility factor (s) for a given thermoelectric material, defined as the value of u that maximizes the reduced efficiency of the aforementioned model thermoelectric generator.

Snyder, G. Jeffrey↗

NASA NTRS2000

Atomistic Method Applied to Computational Modeling of Surface Alloys

The formation of surface alloys is a growing research field that, in terms of the surface structure of multicomponent systems, defines the frontier both for experimental and theoretical techniques. Because of the impact that the formation of surface alloys has on surface properties, researchers need reliable methods to predict new surface alloys and to help interpret unknown structures. The structure of surface alloys and when, and even if, they form are largely unpredictable from the known properties of the participating elements. No unified theory or model to date can infer surface alloy structures from the constituents properties or their bulk alloy characteristics. In spite of these severe limitations, a growing catalogue of such systems has been developed during the last decade, and only recently are global theories being advanced to fully understand the phenomenon. None of the methods used in other areas of surface science can properly model even the already known cases. Aware of these limitations, the Computational Materials Group at the NASA Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field has developed a useful, computationally economical, and physically sound methodology to enable the systematic study of surface alloy formation in metals. This tool has been tested successfully on several known systems for which hard experimental evidence exists and has been used to predict ternary surface alloy formation (results to be published: Garces, J.E.; Bozzolo, G.; and Mosca, H.: Atomistic Modeling of Pd/Cu(100) Surface Alloy Formation. Surf. Sci., 2000 (in press); Mosca, H.; Garces J.E.; and Bozzolo, G.: Surface Ternary Alloys of (Cu,Au)/Ni(110). (Accepted for publication in Surf. Sci., 2000.); and Garces, J.E.; Bozzolo, G.; Mosca, H.; and Abel, P.: A New Approach for Atomistic Modeling of Pd/Cu(110) Surface Alloy Formation. (Submitted to Appl. Surf. Sci.)). Ternary alloy formation is a field yet to be fully explored experimentally. The computational tool, which is based on the BFS (Bozzolo, Ferrante, and Smith) method for the calculation of the energetics, consists of a small number of simple PCbased computer codes that deal with the different aspects of surface alloy formation. Two analysis modes are available within this package. The first mode provides an atom-by-atom description of real and virtual stages 1. during the process of surface alloying, based on the construction of catalogues of configurations where each configuration describes one possible atomic distribution. BFS analysis of this catalogue provides information on accessible states, possible ordering patterns, and details of island formation or film growth. More importantly, it provides insight into the evolution of the system. Software developed by the Computational Materials Group allows for the study of an arbitrary number of elements forming surface alloys, including an arbitrary number of surface atomic layers. The second mode involves large-scale temperature-dependent computer 2. simulations that use the BFS method for the energetics and provide information on the dynamic processes during surface alloying. These simulations require the implementation of Monte-Carlo-based codes with high efficiency within current workstation environments. This methodology capitalizes on the advantages of the BFS method: there are no restrictions on the number or type of elements or on the type of crystallographic structure considered. This removes any restrictions in the definition of the configuration catalogues used in the analytical calculations, thus allowing for the study of arbitrary ordering patterns, ultimately leading to the actual surface alloy structure. Moreover, the Monte Carlo numerical technique used for the large-scale simulations allows for a detailed visualization of the simulated process, the main advantage of this type of analysis being the ability to understand the underlying features that drive these processes. Because of the simplicity of the BFS method for e energetics used in these calculations, a detailed atom-by-atom analysis can be performed at any point in the simulation, providing necessary insight on the details of the process. The main objective of this research program is to develop a tool to guide experimenters in understanding and interpreting often unexpected results in alloy formation experiments. By reducing the computational effort without losing physical accuracy, we expect that powerful simulation tools will be developed in the immediate future, which will allow material scientists to easily visualize and analyze processes at a level not achievable experimentally.

Bozzolo, Guillermo H.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Combined Al-Mg/Pb-Pb Age of the Solar System

Astrophysical models of planet formation and protoplanetary disk evolution demand precise and accurate timing of the sequence of events in the solar nebula, relative to a time t=0, usually taken to be during the short epoch of CAI (Ca-rich, Al-rich inclusion) formation. Most CAIs formed withlive26Al (mean-life τ26= 1.034 Myr [1]), with an abundance 26Al/27Al ≈ (26Al/27Al)SS= 5.23 × 10-5[2]. We adopt this as the widespread level of 26Al in the solar nebula at t=0. Assuming spatial homogeneity of 26Al, an inclusion that had less 26Al, (26Al/27Al)0, formed a time Δt26= τ26ln[(26Al/27Al)SS/ (26Al/27Al)0] after t=0.These ages are typical precise to within ±0.1 Myr. Igneous bulk meteorites and inclusions can be relatively dated by the Al-Mg chronometer, but only ifΔt26<6 Myr. The Pb-Pb system is useful as a longer relative chronometer. It yields absolute ages tPb using 207Pb/206Pb, 206Pb/204Pb, and 238U/235U ratios measured indifferent portions of a sample, assuming certain half-lives [4]. These absolute ages are uncertain to within ±9 Myr due to uncertainties in the 235U half-life[3], but times of formation ΔtPb= tCAI–tPb relative to t=0, are more precise(±0.5Myr),iftCAI can be found. Here, tCAI means the Pb-Pb age that would be measured in CAIs using the half-lives the community typically uses, if they achieved isotopic closure at t=0. Unfortunately, direct Pb-Pb dating of CAIs has not definitively determined tCAI. Based on four CAIs with canonical (26Al/27Al)0,[5,6] found tPb= 4567.30 ± 0.16 Myr. No other CAI ages with measured 238U/235U have been reported in the refereed literature, but there are hints of other CAIs with ages tPb= 4568.0 ± 0.2 Myr [7] and tPb= 4568.3 ± 0.2 Myr [8].It is unclear whether anyof these igneous type B CAIs isotopically closed at t=0 or represents tCAI. Instead of measurements, we advocate finding tCAI by minimizing the discrepancies between the Al-Mg and Pb-Pb chronometers. Assuming Δt26=ΔtPb, we find the implied t’CAI= tPb+Δt26, then define t*CAIas the weighted mean of the t’CAI. t*CAIis the best guess for the Pb-Pb age of t=0; the assumption of homogeneity is justified if the t’CAI cluster within errors around t*CAI. This statistical approach is similar to, but improves on, that of[9]. We find t*CAI= 4568.73 ± 0.16 Myr. Below we discuss our methodology and the implications of this age for CAIs, 1.4 Myr older than the reported and typically used age 4567.30±0.16 Myr. Methods: We base our estimate of t*CAIon five achondrites for which published (26Al/27Al)0and Pb-Pb ages exist: the quenched angrites D’Orbigny, Sahara 99555 (SAH 99555), and Northwest Africa (NWA) 1670; the pseudo-eucrite Asuka 881394; and the inner disk achondrite. All are “NC” (non-carbonaceous) achondrites that likely cooled quickly enough that the Al-Mg and Pb-Pb systems achieved isotopic closure simultaneously. We also considered the “CC” (carbonaceous chondrite-like) achondrites NWA 2796 and NWA 6704, butdo not include them in our fit. Al-Mg and Pb-Pb seem not to have closed simultaneously, possibly because formation in the outer disk from volatile-rich composition led to slower cooling. Of the 8 chondrules from NWA 5697 measured by [20,21], we also consider the 4 for which 238U/235U was measured: 2-C1, 5-C2, 3-C5, 11-C1.Depending on their post-formation thermal histories, the Al-Mg and Pb-Pb systems in chondrules may or may not have closed simultaneously. Table 1: (26Al/27Al)0, Pb-Pb ages of selected samplesSample(26Al/27Al)0/ 10-6RefPb-PbRefD’Orbigny3.98±0.15104563.43±0.19♮10-12SAH 995553.64±0.18104563.88±0.2712NWA16705.92±0.59104564.39±0.24*10Asuka 88139413.1±0.5613-154564.98±0.1715NWA 73253.03±0.14164563.4±2.616NWA 27963.94±0.16174562.89±0.5917NWA 67043.03±0.14184562.76±0.26192-C17.56±1.53204567.57±0.56*215-C27.04±1.51204567.54±0.52*213-C58.85±1.83204566.20±0.63*2111-C15.55±1.84204565.84±0.72*21*regression based on one subset of data points ♮weighted mean of two datasets Pb-Pb ages are proportional to the intercept of the line formed by linear regression of 207Pb/206Pb vs. 206Pb/204Pb data from various washes, leachates and residues of acid dissolution of a sample. Because contamination by terrestrial or primordial Pb is pervasive, some fractions must be excluded from regressions to ensure a fit with acceptable mean squares weighted deviation (MSWD). Usually points are excluded based on low [Pb], or low 206Pb/204Pb ratio(low radiogenic component), with single outliers identified [11,12,15,16,17]. In the starred examples (Table 1)and the case of 3 CAI Pb-Pb ages [5], up to half the points were excluded solely because did not fit a pre-determined line. This approach is vulnerable to confirmation bias and produces fits with low MSWD and too-low Pb-Pb age uncertainty. Regressing the same data points as [10], were produce the Pb-Pb age of NWA 1670 of 4564.39±0.24 Myr. But selecting other combinations of data points, other, equally valid, isochrons yield ages from 4563.77±0.21 Myr to 4564.64±0.23 Myr. Similar arguments apply to the Pb-Pb isochrons built by [21] for chondrules 2-C1 (we find 4567.33±0.44 to 4567.85±0.46 Myr), 5-C2 (4566.84±0.53 to 4567.70±0.44 Myr), 3-C5 (4565.84±0.54to 4567.04±0.54)and 11-C1 (4565.36±0.51 to 4565.74±0.45 Myr). Our adopted ages for these and NWA 1670 are listed in Table 2.Table 2. tCAI estimated from various components, using our regressions for the chondrules & NWA 1670.SampleΔt26(Myr)tPb(Myr)t’CAI(Myr)D’Orbigny5.05±0.044563.43±0.194568.48±0.19SAH 995555.14±0.054563.88±0.274569.02±0.27NWA16704.64±0.104564.21±0.634568.85±0.67Asuka 8813943.81±0.044564.98±0.174568.79±0.17NWA 73255.33±0.054563.4±2.64568.7±2.6NWA 27965.06±0.044562.89±0.594567.95±0.59NWA 67045.29±0.134562.76±0.264568.05±0.292-C12.00±0.214567.59±0.704569.59±0.725-C22.07±0.224567.23±0.914569.30±0.933-C51.84±0.214566.44±1.124568.28±1.1411-C12.32±0.344565.52±0.664567.84±0.73achondrite4568.72±0.16chondrules4568.76±0.58combined4568.73±0.16A weighted average of the five NC achondrites(or just D’Orbigny, SAH 99555 and Asuka 881394)yields t*CAI= 4568.72 ± 0.16Myr. All are consistent with this value to within 1.8σ, and MSWD=1.5. Including the 4 U-corrected chondrules, t*CAI= 4568.73± 0.16Myrwith MSWD=1.66, which is statistically significant. All chondrules and NC achondrites are consistent with this to within 1.8σ, (Figure 1).Figure 1. Al-Mg formation times after t=0 vs. Pb-Pb ages. The five NC achondrites and four chondrules are consistent with a Pb-Pb age of t=0 of 4568.7 Myr. Discussion: The data from achondrites and chondrules are consistent with a single Pb-Pb age at t=0, justifying the assumption of 26Al homogeneity. The age, 4568.7 Myr, is ≈1.4 Myr older than the commonly accepted Pb-Pb age of CAIs that formed with canonical 26Al/27Al at t=0 [3]. Others have interpreted the discrepancy to signify 26Al heterogeneity in the CAI-forming region[5,21]. We suggest instead that CAIs were exposed to transient heating events that reset the Pb-Pb system without disturbing the Al-Mg system. Notably, chondrules typically experienced transient heating at these times in the nebula [22]. If so, direct measurements of CAIs will not yield as reliable a Pb-Pb age of t=0 as statistical approaches like this and that of [9].References:[1] Auer et al. 2009. [2] Jacobsen, B et al. 2008, EPSL 272, 353-364. [3] Tissot, Fet al. 2017, GCA 213, 593-617.[4] Villa, I et al. 2016, GCA 172, 387-392.[5] Amelin, Y et al. 2010, EPSL 300, 343-350.[6] Connelly, Jet al. 2012, Science 338, 651.[7] Bouvier, Aet al. 2011, LPICo 1639, 9054. [8] Bouvier, Aand Wadhwa, M2010, Nat Geosci 3, 637-641.[9] Nyquist, Let al. 2009, GCA 73, 5115-5136.[10] Schiller et al. 2015. [11] Wadhwa & Brennecka 2012. [12] Tissot et al. 2017. [13] Nyquist et al. 2003. [14] Wadhwa et al. 2009. [15] Wimpenny et al. 2019, GCA 244, 478-501.[16] Koefoed et al. 2016, GCA 183, 31-45. [17] Bouvier, A et al. 2011, GCA 75, 5310-5323. [18] Sanborn, Met al. 2019, GCA 245, 577-596. [19] Amelin, Yet al. 2019, GCA 245, 628-642.[20] Bollard, Jet al. 2017, Sci Adv 3 ,e1700407. [21] Bollard, Jet al. 2019, GCA 260, 62-83.[22] Villeneuve, J et al. 2009, Science 325, 985

S. J. Desch↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris (MMOD) Testing, Ballistic Limit Equation Definition and Risk Assessment of the Exploration Extravehicular Mobility Unit (xEMU)

A well-known hazard associated with exposure to the space environment is the risk of failure due to an impact from a micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) particle. As NASA prepares to return astronauts to the moon with the Artemis program, the next generation of spacesuit is in development to support future extravehicular activities (EVAs.) An MMOD impact to the spacesuit is of great concern as a large leak could prevent an astronaut from safely reaching an airlock in time resulting in a loss of life. The exploration extravehicular mobility unit (xEMU) must meet MMOD requirements for multiple environments including those in low earth orbit (LEO) as well as the meteoroid and secondary lunar regolith ejecta environments found on the lunar surface. The subject of this paper is an internal xEMU configuration design developed by NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) personnel. This paper will expand on the hypervelocity impact (HVI) testing and ballistic limit equation (BLE) definition work that was partially presented at the 2nd International Orbital De-bris (IOC-II) Conference held in Sugar Land, TX in December 2023. The xEMU shares similarities with the legacy Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) spacesuit that is currently used for ISS EVAs, however differences in the layup (e.g., materials, thicknesses, and layers) of the fabric environmental protection garment (EPG), portable life support system (xPLSS) and helmet required an extensive test program to determine ballistic performance. Over 100 hypervelocity impact (HVI) tests were performed by the NASA/JSC HVIT and White Sands Test Facility (WSTF) teams on the xEMU EPG, xPLSS and helmet to generate ballistic limit equations (BLEs) for MMOD impacts. Additionally, over 50 low speed tests (< 1km/s) were performed by the NASA/JSC HVIT and Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) teams on the xEMU EPG, xPLSS and helmet to generate BLEs for lunar ejecta impacts. Post testing, ballistic limit equations used to define the performance of the various regions on the xEMU spacesuit were developed from a generic set of BLEs. The HVI and low speed testing was performed to establish a physical basis for the equations with the co-efficients and exponents of the generic BLEs adjusted to fit the test data. The xEMU BLEs were added to the NASA/JSC software application used for space-craft MMOD risk assessments (BUMPER-3). A finite element model (FEM) of the xEMU spacesuit, which defines the size and shape of the spacesuit as well as the locations of the various shielding configurations, was created based on a solid model provided by the xEMU program office. Using the FEM file and added xEMU BLEs, BUMPER-3 assessments of the xEMU spacesuit for probability of no penetration (PNP) were performed. For the LEO assessment of a typical ISS EVA, the orbital debris and meteoroids environments were defined using the latest engineering models, ORDEM 3.2 and MEM-3 respectively. The lunar sur-face assessment again used the MEM-3 engineering model to define the meteoroid environ-ment along with the current released lunar surface ejecta model, NASA SP-8013 (developed during the Apollo Program). The Space Team in the Natural Environments Branch at Mar-shall Space Flight Center (MSFC) will soon release the new Lunar Meteoroid Ejecta Engineering Model (LMEEM), at which time the xEMU lunar surface EVA will be reassessed. Assessment of the MMOD risk for an 8-hour, 2-person EVA in both LEO and on the lunar surface showed that the xEMU spacesuit meets the program technical requirement of 1 in 2500 failure odds. Similar to the legacy EMU spacesuit, the majority of the MMOD risk (96% of the LEO EVA risk and 99% of the lunar surface EVA risk) is concentrated in regions of xEMU that are comprised primarily of softgoods (arms, legs, and gloves) rather than the hardgoods (xPLSS, hard upper torso and helmet).

Micrometeoroid↗

NASA NTRS2014

Climate Sensitivity in the Anthropocene

Climate sensitivity in its most basic form is defined as the equilibrium change in global surface temperature that occurs in response to a climate forcing, or externally imposed perturbation of the planetary energy balance. Within this general definition, several specific forms of climate sensitivity exist that differ in terms of the types of climate feedbacks they include. Based on evidence from Earth's history, we suggest here that the relevant form of climate sensitivity in the Anthropocene (e.g. from which to base future greenhouse gas (GHG) stabilization targets) is the Earth system sensitivity including fast feedbacks from changes in water vapour, natural aerosols, clouds and sea ice, slower surface albedo feedbacks from changes in continental ice sheets and vegetation, and climate-GHG feedbacks from changes in natural (land and ocean) carbon sinks. Traditionally, only fast feedbacks have been considered (with the other feedbacks either ignored or treated as forcing), which has led to estimates of the climate sensitivity for doubled CO2 concentrations of about 3 C. The 2×CO2 Earth system sensitivity is higher than this, being approx. 4-6 C if the ice sheet/vegetation albedo feedback is included in addition to the fast feedbacks, and higher still if climate-GHG feedbacks are also included. The inclusion of climate-GHG feedbacks due to changes in the natural carbon sinks has the advantage of more directly linking anthropogenic GHG emissions with the ensuing global temperature increase, thus providing a truer indication of the climate sensitivity to human perturbations. The Earth system climate sensitivity is difficult to quantify due to the lack of palaeo-analogues for the present-day anthropogenic forcing, and the fact that ice sheet and climate-GHG feedbacks have yet to become globally significant in the Anthropocene. Furthermore, current models are unable to adequately simulate the physics of ice sheet decay and certain aspects of the natural carbon and nitrogen cycles. Obtaining quantitative estimates of the Earth system sensitivity is therefore a high priority for future work.

Anthropocene↗