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NASA NTRS2016

Tool for Generation of MAC/GMC Representative Unit Cell for CMC/PMC Analysis

This document describes a recently developed analysis tool that enhances the resident capabilities of the Micromechanics Analysis Code with the Generalized Method of Cells (MAC/GMC) 4.0. This tool is especially useful in analyzing ceramic matrix composites (CMCs), where higher fidelity with improved accuracy of local response is needed. The tool, however, can be used for analyzing polymer matrix composites (PMCs) as well. MAC/GMC 4.0 is a composite material and laminate analysis software developed at NASA Glenn Research Center. The software package has been built around the concept of the generalized method of cells (GMC). The computer code is developed with a user friendly framework, along with a library of local inelastic, damage, and failure models. Further, application of simulated thermomechanical loading, generation of output results, and selection of architectures to represent the composite material have been automated to increase the user friendliness, as well as to make it more robust in terms of input preparation and code execution. Finally, classical lamination theory has been implemented within the software, wherein GMC is used to model the composite material response of each ply. Thus, the full range of GMC composite material capabilities is available for analysis of arbitrary laminate configurations as well. The primary focus of the current effort is to provide a graphical user interface (GUI) capability that generates a number of different user-defined repeating unit cells (RUCs). In addition, the code has provisions for generation of a MAC/GMC-compatible input text file that can be merged with any MAC/GMC input file tailored to analyze composite materials. Although the primary intention was to address the three different constituents and phases that are usually present in CMCs-namely, fibers, matrix, and interphase-it can be easily modified to address two-phase polymer matrix composite (PMC) materials where an interphase is absent. Currently, the tool capability includes generation of RUCs for square packing, hexagonal packing, and random fiber packing as well as RUCs based on actual composite micrographs. All these options have the fibers modeled as having a circular cross-sectional area. In addition, a simplified version of RUC is provided where the fibers are treated as having a square cross section and are distributed randomly. This RUC facilitates a speedy analysis using the higher fidelity version of GMC known as HFGMC. The first four mentioned options above support uniform subcell discretization. The last one has variable subcell sizes due to the primary intention of keeping the RUC size to a minimum to gain the speed ups using the higher fidelity version of MAC. The code is implemented within the MATLAB (The Mathworks, Inc., Natick, MA) developmental framework; however, a standalone application that does not need a priori MATLAB installation is also created with the aid of the MATLAB compiler.

Materials Engineering↗
NASA NTRS2013

It's the Heat AND the Humidity -- Assessment of Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health

In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. In a NASA-funded project supporting the National Climate Assessment, we are providing historical and future measures of extreme heat to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The project s emphasis is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM output, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons, 2040 and 2090, are the focus of future assessments; these are compared to the recent past period of 1981-2000. We are characterizing regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM output for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM output have been analyzed to develop a heat stress climatology based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and past periods have been used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes, combined with hourly historical meteorological data at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, enable us to create future climate realizations, from which we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields. These include the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air temperatures, heat indices and a new heat stress variable that gives an integrated measure of heat stress (and relief) over the course of a day. Comparisons are made between projected (2040 and 2090) and past (1990) heat stress statistics. All output is being provided at the 12 km spatial scale and will also be aggregated to the county level, which is a popular scale of analysis for public health researchers. County-level statistics will be made available by our collaborators at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) via the Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) system. CDC WONDER makes the information resources of the CDC available to public health professionals and the general public. This addition of heat stress measures to CDC WONDER will allow decision and policy makers to assess the impact of alternative approaches to optimize the public health response to EHEs. It will also allow public health researchers and policy makers to better include such heat stress measures in the context of national health data available in the CDC WONDER system. The users will be able to spatially and temporally query public health and heat-related data sets and create county-level maps and statistical charts of such data across the coterminous U.S.

Crosson, William L↗
NASA NTRS2018

Mechanisms of Oxide Formation in the Self-Reacting Friction Stir Weld Process

The initial objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of an extended delay time between preweld cleaning and the completion of a self-reacting friction stir welding (SRFSW) process on the resulting quality of various thickness panels of AA2219-T87. The current NASA standard specifies no more than a 48 hour delay between preweld cleaning and actual welding. The concern is whether increasing the cleaning delay time results in development of the residual oxide defect (ROD) in SRFSW. This concern emanates from the possibility of increased time correlating with increased oxide layer thickness on the faying surfaces. Oxide content on the faying surfaces has been reported to correlate with the occurrence of the ROD which reduces mechanical properties. When the SRFSW process was first adopted by the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), unexpected low tensile values that resulted were attributed to oxides within the weld that appeared to follow the former faying surface contours. Mitigation of the ROD was achieved through a combination of modifications to the processing parameters, tool designs, and incorporation of a weld seam offset. Two operations are involved in preweld cleaning: the first is removal of oil and grease, and the second is removal of surface oxides. In arc welding, improper cleaning of the faying surfaces of aluminum welded joints can increase the sensitivity toward development of defects. As the aluminum is locally melted, these contaminants contribute toward the development of porosity, inclusions, entrapped oxides, and other discontinuities which can degrade the strength of the weld joint. For weldment of large structures, the weld joint is typically cleaned, fit-up, and tack welded prior to the final full penetration welding pass. Because of the stringent joint fit-up requirements for mismatch and peaking for launch vehicle structures, the joint fit-up can sometimes contribute to lengthy delays between cleaning and tack welding, especially for circumferential weld joints on large diameter components. When the conventional friction stir welding (CFSW) process was introduced at the NASA MSFC, there was no procedure for cleaning prior to the solid-state joining process. As the process expanded to include SRFSW, preparation of the faying, crown, and root surfaces were implemented to overcome the ROD. Although the solid-state process is not expected to reach temperatures high enough for dissociation of the native oxide layer, concern remained regarding the redeposition of the native oxide layer within the stir zone. NASA has previously established the allowable time at 48 hours between preweld cleaning and a SRFSW process. The effect of potential 2 contamination resulting from an extended delay to 188 hours was subsequently evaluated for SRFSWs using tensile testing and metallographic imaging. Tensile specimens were tested at room temperature (RT), and at cryogenic conditions of liquid nitrogen (LN2) and liquid hydrogen. No detrimental effect on weld quality, as determined by weld strength, was reported for cleaning delays of 48, 120, 168, 240 or 288 hours. While no trends were established in this study, which extended the delay from 48 to 188 hours, there were a few outliers in terms of ultimate tensile strength (UTS). According to M. Fisher's 2014 Boeing Company Memo no. EYBF-MAF-14-029, all outliers were above the minimum acceptance criteria, but out of family with respect to the average values. As the robustness and reliability of any process ultimately depends on the average values as well as the outliers, an understanding of the cause of these outliers will ultimately improve the process. This report examines those outliers and their possible causes.

Schneider, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) for the ICESat Mission

The Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) is a new generation lidar and is the primary science payload for NASA's ICESat Mission. The GLAS design combines a 10 cm precision surface lidar with a sensitive dual wavelength cloud and aerosol lidar. GLAS will precisely measure the heights of the Earth's polar ice sheets, establish a grid of accurate height profiles of the Earth's land topography, and profile the vertical distribution of clouds and aerosols on a global scale. GLAS will be integrated onto a small spacecraft built by Ball Aerospace, and will be launched into a polar orbit with a 590-630 km altitude at an inclination of 94 degrees. ICESat is is currently planned to launch in winter 2002/03 and GLAS is designed to operate continuously in space for a minimum of 3 years. GLAS will measure the vertical distance from orbit to the Earth's surface with pulses from a ND:YAG laser at a 40 Hz rate. Each 6 nsec wide 1064 nm laser pulse is used to produce a single range measurement. On the surface, the laser footprints have 66 m diameter and approx. 170 m center-center spacings. The GLAS receiver uses a I m diameter telescope to detect laser backscatter and a Si APD to detect the 1064 nm signals. The detector's output is sampled by a digital ranging receiver, which records each transmitted pulse and surface echo waveform with 1 nsec (15 cm) resolution. Each echo pulse is digitized and is reported to ground with a record length of from 200 to 544 samples, depending on the spacecraft's location . The GLAS location and epoch times are measured by a precision GPS receiver carried on the ICESat spacecraft. Initial processing of the echo waveforms within GLAS permits discrimination between cloud and surface echoes for selecting appropriate waveform samples. This selection is guided by an on-board DEM which is used to set the boundaries for the echo pulse search algorithm. Subsequent ground-based echo pulse analysis, along with GPS-based clock frequency estimates, permit final determination of the range to the surface, degree of pulse spreading, and vertical distribution of any vegetation illuminated by the laser. Accurate knowledge of the laser beam's pointing angle is needed to prevent height biases when measuring over tilted surfaces, such as near the boundaries of ice sheets. For surfaces with 2 deg. slopes, knowledge of pointing angle of the beam's centroid angle to better than 10 urad is needed. GLAS uses a stellar reference system (SRS) to measure the pointing angle of each laser firing relative to inertial space. The SRS uses a high precision star camera oriented toward local zenith and a gyroscope to determine the inertial orientation of the SRS optical bench. The far field pattern of each laser is measured pulse relative to the star camera with a laser reference system (LRS). GLAS will also measure the vertical distributions of clouds and aerosols by recording the vertical profiles of laser pulse backscatter at both 1064 and 532 nm. The 1064 rim measurements use the Si APD detector and will be used to measure the height and echo pulse shape from thicker clouds. The lidar receiver at 532 nm uses a narrow bandwidth etalon filter and highly sensitive photon counting detectors. The 532 nm backscatter profiles will be used to measure the vertical extent of thinner clouds and the atmospheric boundary layer. The GLAS instrument component development is complete and the instrument is undergoing final testing and qualification at NASA-Goddard. The GLAS "as-built" characteristics and its expected measurement performance will be discussed.

Abshire, James B.↗
NASA NTRS2020

The Global Methane Budget 2000–2017

Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. Atmospheric emissions and concentrations of CH4 continue to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing, after carbon dioxide (CO2). The relative importance of CH4 compared to CO2 depends on its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger warming potential, and variations in atmospheric growth rate over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major challenges in reducing uncertainties in the atmospheric growth rate arise from the variety of geographically overlapping CH4 sources and from the destruction of CH4 by short-lived hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these challenges, we have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. Following Saunois et al. (2016), we present here the second version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down studies (atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up estimates (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations). For the 2008–2017 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by atmospheric inversions (a top-down approach) to be 576 Tg CH4/yr (range 550–594, corresponding to the minimum and maximum estimates of the model ensemble). Of this total, 359 Tg CH4/yr or ∼ 60 % is attributed to anthropogenic sources, that is emissions caused by direct human activity (i.e. anthropogenic emissions; range 336–376 Tg CH4/yr or 50 %–65 %). The mean annual total emission for the new decade (2008–2017) is 29 Tg CH4/yr larger than our estimate for the previous decade (2000–2009), and 24 Tg CH4/yr larger than the one reported in the previous budget for 2003–2012 (Saunois et al., 2016). Since 2012, global CH4 emissions have been tracking the warmest scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Bottom-up methods suggest almost 30 % larger global emissions (737 Tg CH4/yr, range 594–881) than top-down inversion methods. Indeed, bottom-up estimates for natural sources such as natural wetlands, other inland water systems, and geological sources are higher than top-down estimates. The atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget suggest that at least some of these bottom-up emissions are overestimated. The latitudinal distribution of atmospheric observation-based emissions indicates a predominance of tropical emissions (∼ 65 % of the global budget, < 30° N) compared to mid-latitudes (∼ 30 %, 30–60° N) and high northern latitudes (∼ 4 %, 60–90° N). The most important source of uncertainty in the methane budget is attributable to natural emissions, especially those from wetlands and other inland waters. Some of our global source estimates are smaller than those in previously published budgets (Saunois et al., 2016; Kirschke et al., 2013). In particular wetland emissions are about 35 Tg CH4/yr lower due to improved partition wetlands and other inland waters. Emissions from geological sources and wild animals are also found to be smaller by 7 Tg CH4/yr by 8 Tg CH4/yr, respectively. However, the overall discrepancy between bottom-up and top-down estimates has been reduced by only 5 % compared to Saunois et al. (2016), due to a higher estimate of emissions from inland waters, highlighting the need for more detailed research on emissions factors. Priorities for improving the methane budget include (i) a global, high-resolution map of water-saturated soils and inundated areas emitting methane based on a robust classification of different types of emitting habitats; (ii) further development of process-based models for inland-water emissions; (iii) intensification of methane observations at local scales (e.g., FLUXNET-CH4 measurements) and urban-scale monitoring to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scales (surface networks and satellites) to constrain atmospheric inversions; (iv) improvements of transport models and the representation of photochemical sinks in top-down inversions; and (v) development of a 3D variational inversion system using isotopic and/or co-emitted species such as ethane to improve source partitioning.

methane budget↗
NASA NTRS1995

Star formation activity in spiral galaxy disks and the properties of radio halos: Observational evidence for a direct dependence

In this article we address observationally the questions: how does star formation (SF) in the disks of galaxies lead to the creation of radio halos, and what minimum energy input into the interstellar medium (ISM) is needed to facilitate this? For the investigation we use a sample of five edge-on galaxies exhibiting radio continuum emmission in their halos and enhanced SF spread over large parts of their disks. In a detailed study of the two galaxies in our sample for which we have the best data, NGC 891 and NGC 4631, we show that the radio halos cut off abruptly at galactocentric radii smaller than those of the underlying thin radio disks. Our most important result is that the halo cutoffs are spatially coincident with the radii where the SF activity in the underlying disks drops sharply. The difference in radius of the emission distributions tracing ongoing SF in the disks (IRAS 50 micrometers, H alpha) versus that of the nonthermal radio continuum thin disks (tracing the distribution of cosmic-ray (CR) electrons) is typically a few kpc. This difference in extent is caused by CR diffusion. We have measured the CR diffusion coefficients in the thin disks of both NGC 891 and NGC 4631. For radial diffusion of CR electrons within the galactic disks the values are D(sub r) = 1.1-2.5 x 10 (exp 29) sq cm/s (NGC 4631) and D(sub r) = 1.2 x 10(exp 29) sq cm/s (NGC 891). For motions in the z-direction in areas within the thin disks where no outflows occur, we derive a firm upper limit of D(sub z) less than or equal to 0.2 x 10(exp 28) sq cm/s for NGC 891. The value for NGC 4631 is D(sub z = 1.4 x 10 (exp 28) sq cm/s. The other three galaxies in our sample, NGC 3044, NGC 4666, and NGC 5775 show (at the sensitivity of our data) less extended, more filamentary radio halos. Isolates spurs or filaments of nonthermal radio continuum emission in their halos are traced only above the most actively star-forming regions in the disks. This, in conjuction with the results obtained for NGC 891 and NGC 4631, suggests a direct connection between the shapes and radial extents of radio halos of normal galaxies and the level and the spatial distribution of the current SF in their disks. The existence of filamentary structures implies that expansion and convection of CR-heated plasma plays an important role even at low z-distances above the plane. Based on radio data we derive the disk-averaged mean energy input rates into the ISM due to supernova explosions per unit surface area in nine galaxies, including the ones in our sample. We find a clear trend in the sense that the galaxies with the highest mean energy input rates in the underlying disks have the most extended and pervasisve radio halos. Below a certain threshohld, outflows are inhibited. As a lower limit for this threshhold we derive an energy input rate of approximately 10 (exp -4) erg/s sq cm. The fact that radio halo emission is found only above the most luminous giant H 2 regions in late-type 'normal' galaxies (of type Sbc or later) indicates that only these are capable of initiating disk-halo interactions by locally exceeding the threshold. The distribution of the local outflows determines the overall shapes of the CR halos and leads to the observed filamentary structures.

Dahlem, Michael↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Effects of Solar Variability on Earth's Climate: A Workshop Report

Solar irradiance, the flux of the Sun s output directed toward Earth, is Earth s main energy source.1 The Sun itself varies on several timescales over billions of years its luminosity increases as it evolves on the main sequence toward becoming a red giant; about every 11 years its sunspot activity cycles; and within just minutes flares can erupt and release massive amounts of energy. Most of the fluctuations from tens to thousands of years are associated with changes in the solar magnetic field. The focus of the National Research Council's September 2011 workshop on solar variability and Earth's climate, and of this summary report, is mainly magnetically driven variability and its possible connection with Earth's climate variations in the past 10,000 years. Even small variations in the amount or distribution of energy received at Earth can have a major influence on Earth's climate when they persist for decades. However, no satellite measurements have indicated that solar output and variability have contributed in a significant way to the increase in global mean temperature in the last 50 years. Locally, however, correlations between solar activity and variations in average weather may stand out beyond the global trend; such has been argued to be the case for the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, even in the present day. A key area of inquiry deals with establishing a unified record of the solar output and solar-modified particles that extends from the present to the prescientific past. The workshop focused attention on the need for a better understanding of the links between indices of solar activity such as cosmogenic isotopes and solar irradiance. A number of presentations focused on the timescale of the solar cycle and of the satellite record, and on the problem of extending this record back in time. Highlights included a report of progress on pyroheliometer calibration, leading to greater confidence in the time history and future stability of total solar irradiance (TSI), and surprising results on changes in spectral irradiance over the last solar cycle, which elicited spirited discussion. New perspectives on connections between features of the quiet and active areas of the photosphere and variations in TSI were also presented, emphasizing the importance of developing better understanding in order to extrapolate back in time using activity indices. Workshop participants reviews highlighted difficulties as well as causes for optimism in current understanding of the cosmogenic isotope record and the use of observed variability in Sun-like stars in reconstructing variations in TSI occurring on lower frequencies than the sunspot cycle. The workshop succeeded in bringing together informed, focused presentations on major drivers of the Sun-climate connection. The importance of the solar cycle as a unique quasi-periodic probe of climate responses on a timescale between the seasonal and Milankovitch cycles was recognized in several presentations. The signal need only be detectable, not dominant, for it to play this role of a useful probe. Some workshop participants also found encouraging progress in the top-down perspective, according to which solar variability affects surface climate by first perturbing the stratosphere, which then forces the troposphere and surface. This work is now informing and being informed by research on tropospheric responses to the Antarctic ozone hole and volcanic aerosols. In contrast to the top-down perspective is the bottom-up view that the interaction of solar energy with the ocean and surface leads to changes in dynamics and temperature. During the discussion of how dynamical air-sea coupling in the tropical Pacific and solar variability interact from a bottom-up perspective, several participants remarked on the wealth of open research questions in the dynamics of the climatic response to TSI and spectral variability. The discussion of the paleoclimate record emphasized that the link between solar varbility and Earth s climate is multifaceted and that some components are understood better than others. According to two presenters on paleoclimate, there is a need to study the idiosyncrasies of each key proxy record. Yet they also emphasized that there may be an emerging pattern of paleoclimate change coincident with periods of solar activity and inactivity, but only on long timescales of multiple decades to millennia. Several speakers discussed the effects of particle events and cosmic-ray variability. These are all areas of exciting fundamental research; however, they have not yet led to conclusive evidence for significant related climate effects. The key problem of attribution of climate variability on the timescales of the Little Ice Age and the Maunder Minimum were directly addressed in several presentations. Several workshop participants remarked that the combination of solar, paleoclimatic, and climate modeling research has the potential to dramatically improve the credibility of these attribution studies.

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