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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Continental Scale Hydrostratigraphy: Comparing Geologically Informed Data Products to Analytical Solutions

Abstract This study synthesizes two different methods for estimating hydraulic conductivity (K) at large scales. We derive analytical approaches that estimate K and apply them to the contiguous United States. We then compare these analytical approaches to three‐dimensional, national gridded K data products and three transmissivity (T) data products developed from publicly available sources. We evaluate these data products using multiple approaches: comparing their statistics qualitatively and quantitatively and with hydrologic model simulations. Some of these datasets were used as inputs for an integrated hydrologic model of the Upper Colorado River Basin and the comparison of the results with observations was used to further evaluate the K data products. Simulated average daily streamflow was compared to daily flow data from 10 USGS stream gages in the domain, and annually averaged simulated groundwater depths are compared to observations from nearly 2000 monitoring wells. We find streamflow predictions from analytically informed simulations to be similar in relative bias and Spearman's rho to the geologically informed simulations. R ‐squared values for groundwater depth predictions are close between the best performing analytically and geologically informed simulations at 0.68 and 0.70 respectively, with RMSE values under 10 m. We also show that the analytical approach derived by this study produces estimates of K that are similar in spatial distribution, standard deviation, mean value, and modeling performance to geologically‐informed estimates. The results of this work are used to inform a follow‐on study that tests additional data‐driven approaches in multiple basins within the contiguous United States.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning framework for predicting uranium enrichments from M400 CZT gamma spectra

A machine learning framework was developed for predicting uranium enrichments from M400 CZT gamma spectra. This framework leverages the availability of a large amount of measured M400 gamma spectra and uses a recently updated version of Gamma Detector Response and Analysis Software (GADRAS) for gamma spectrum analysis and generation. It also leverages the existing machine learning modules in Python for gamma spectrum data processing, curation, model training, benchmarking, and optimization of the deep machine learning models. The framework is used to develop a deep learning model to analyze gamma spectra from a set of U 3 O 8 samples with enrichments ranging from 0.31 to 93.17% and UF 6 cylinders with enrichments ranging from 0.2 to 4.95%, and the model performance is tested using a set of measured spectra and the respective declared enrichment values. Results show that the model can correctly classify 99.35% of the U 3 O 8 sample enrichments, and can predict the samples’ enrichments within an average absolute error of 0.099% (in percentage points of enrichment). For the UF 6 cylinders, the average absolute error was approximately 0.03%, with an accuracy of 98% in classifying discrete enrichment values of UF 6 samples. Finally, the results also show that the model has performed significantly better in terms of predicting enrichments in UF 6 cylinders based on measured gamma spectra than the GEM code, with a standard deviation (of the relative errors) of 2.23% (compared with the 11.51% value for the GEM code) based on results from a set of test data.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

The first high-redshift cavity power measurements of cool-core galaxy clusters with the International LOFAR Telescope

Radio-mode feedback associated with the active galactic nuclei (AGNs) at the cores of galaxy clusters injects a large amount of energy into the intracluster medium (ICM), offsetting radiative losses through X-ray emission. This mechanism prevents the ICM from rapidly cooling down and fueling extreme starburst activity as it accretes onto the central galaxies, and it is therefore a key ingredient in the evolution of galaxy clusters. However, the influence and mode of feedback at high redshifts (z ∼ 1) remains largely unknown. Low-frequency sub-arcsecond-resolution radio observations taken with the International LOFAR Telescope have demonstrated their ability to assist X-ray observations with constraining the energy output from the AGNs (or “cavity power”) in galaxy clusters, thereby enabling research at higher redshifts than before. In this pilot project, we tested this hybrid method on a high-redshift (0.6 < z < 1.3) sample of 13 galaxy clusters for the first time with the aim of verifying the performance of this method at these redshifts and providing the first estimates of the cavity power associated with the central AGN for a sample of distant clusters. We were able to detect clear radio lobes in three out of 13 galaxy clusters at redshifts of 0.7 < z < 0.9, and we used these detections in combination with ICM pressures surrounding the radio lobes obtained from standard profiles to calculate the corresponding cavity powers of the AGNs. Combining our results with the literature, the current data appear to suggest that the average cavity power peaked at a redshift ofz ∼ 0.4 and slowly decreases toward higher redshifts. However, we require more and tighter constraints on the cavity volume and a better understanding of our observational systematics to confirm any deviation of the cavity power trend from a constant level.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Skyrme-Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov mass models on a 3D mesh: III. From atomic nuclei to neutron stars

Here, we present BSkG3, the latest entry in the Brussels-Skyrme-on-a-grid series of large-scale models of nuclear structure based on an energy density functional. Compared to its predecessors, the new model offers a more realistic description of nucleonic matter at the extreme densities relevant to neutron stars. This achievement is made possible by incorporating a constraint on the infinite nuclear matter properties at high densities in the parameter adjustment, ensuring in this way that the predictions of BSkG3 for the nuclear Equation of State are compatible with the observational evidence for heavy pulsars with M > 2M ⊙ . Instead of the usual phenomenological pairing terms, we also employ a more microscopically founded treatment of nucleon pairing, resulting in extrapolations to high densities that are in line with the predictions of advanced many-body methods and are hence more suited to the study of superfluidity in neutron stars. By adopting an extended form of the Skyrme functional, we are able to reconcile the description of matter at high densities and at saturation density: the new model further refines the description of atomic nuclei offered by its predecessors. A qualitative improvement is our inclusion of ground state reflection asymmetry, in addition to the spontaneous breaking of rotational, axial, and time-reversal symmetry. Quantitatively, the model offers lowered root-mean-square deviations on 2457 masses (0.631 MeV), 810 charge radii (0.0237 fm) and an unmatched accuracy with respect to 45 primary fission barriers of actinide nuclei (0.33 MeV). Reconciling the complexity of neutron stars with those of atomic nuclei establishes BSkG3 as a tool of choice for applications to nuclear structure, the nuclear equation of state and nuclear astrophysics in general.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impacts of Sub‐Grid Topographic Representations on Surface Energy Balance and Boundary Conditions in the E3SM Land Model: A Case Study in Sierra Nevada

Abstract Sub‐grid topographic heterogeneity has large impacts on surface energy balance and land‐atmosphere interactions. However, the impacts of representing sub‐grid topographic effects in land surface models (LSMs) on surface energy balance and boundary conditions remain unclear. This study analyzed and evaluated the impacts of sub‐grid topographic representations on surface energy balance, turbulent heat flux, and scalar (co‐)variances in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). Three sub‐grid topographic representations in ELM were compared: (a) the default sub‐grid structure (D), (b) the recently developed sub‐grid topographic structure (T), and (c) high spatial resolution (1KM). Additionally, two different solar radiation schemes in ELM were compared: (a) the default plane‐parallel radiative transfer scheme (PP) and (b) the parameterization scheme (TOP) that accounts for sub‐grid topographic effects on solar radiation. A series of offline simulations with the three grid discretization structures (D, T, and 1KM) and two schemes of solar radiation (TOP and PP) were carried out using the Sierra Nevada, California. 1KM simulations with TOP well capture the spatial heterogeneity of surface fluxes compared to Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer remote sensing data. There are significant differences between TOP and PP in the 1‐km simulated surface energy balance, but the differences in mean values and standard deviations become small when aggregated to the grid scale (i.e., 0.5°). The T configuration better mimics the 1KM simulations with TOP than the D configuration and better captures the sub‐grid topographic effects on surface energy balance and boundary conditions. These results underline the importance of representing sub‐grid topographic heterogeneities in LSMs and motivate future research to understand the sub‐grid topographic effects on land‐atmosphere interactions over mountainous areas.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hydrodynamic description of D meson production in high-energy heavy-ion collisions *

The large values and constituent-quark-number scaling of the elliptic flow of low-p T D mesons imply that charm quarks, initially produced through hard processes, might be partially thermalized through strong interactions with quark-gluon plasma (QGP) in high-energy heavy-ion collisions. To quantify the degree of thermalization of low-p T charm quarks, we compare the D 0 meson spectra and elliptic flow from a hydrodynamic model to experimental data as well as transport model simulations. We use an effective charm chemical potential at the freeze-out temperature to account for the initial charm quark production from hard processes and assume that they are thermalized in the local comoving frame of the medium before freeze-out. D 0 mesons are sampled statistically from the freeze-out hyper-surface of the expanding QGP as described by the event-by-event (3+1)D viscous hydrodynamic model CLVisc. Both the hydrodynamic and transport models can describe the elliptic flow of D 0 mesons at P T < 3 GeV/c as measured in Au+Au collisions at $sqrts_{NN} = 200$ GeV. Though the experimental data on spectra are consistent with the hydrodynamic result at small p T ~ 1 GeV/c, they deviate from the hydrodynamic model at high transverse momentum, GeV/c. The diffusion and parton energy loss mechanisms in the transport model can describe the measured spectra reasonably well within the theoretical uncertainty. Finally, our comparative study indicates that charm quarks only approach local thermal equilibrium at small p T , even though they acquire sizable elliptic flow comparable to light-quark hadrons at both small and intermediate p T .

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Measurements and interpretations of W ± Z production cross-sections in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV with the ATLAS detector

Measurements of integrated and differential cross-sections for W ± Z production in proton-proton collisions are presented. The data collected by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider from 2015 to 2018 at a centre-of-mass energy of $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV are used, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 140 fb −1 . The W ± Z candidate events are reconstructed using leptonic decay modes of the gauge bosons into electrons or muons. The integrated cross-section per lepton flavour for the production of W ± Z is measured in the detector fiducial region with a relative precision of 4%. The measured value is compared with the Standard Model prediction at a precision of up to next-to-next-to-leading-order in QCD and next-to-leading-order in electroweak. Cross-sections for W + Z and W − Z production and their ratio are presented. The W ± Z production is also measured differentially as functions of various kinematic variables, including new observables sensitive to CP-violation effects. All measurements are compared with state-of-the-art Standard Model predictions from fixed-order calculations or Monte Carlo generators based on next-to-leading-order matrix elements interfaced with parton showers. An effective field theory interpretation of the measurements is performed, considering both CP-conserving and CP-violating dimension-6 operators modifying the W ± Z production. In the absence of observed deviations from the Standard Model, limits on CP-conserving Wilson coefficients are extracted using the transverse mass of the W ± Z system. For CP-violating coefficients a machine learning approach is used to construct an observable with enhanced sensitivity to CP-violation effects.

hadron-hadron scattering↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development and validation of a mathematical model of heart rate response to fluid perturbation

Physiological closed-loop controlled (PCLC) medical devices monitor and automatically adjust the patient’s condition by using physiological variables as feedback, ideally with minimal human intervention to achieve the target levels set by a clinician. PCLC devices present a challenge when it comes to evaluating their performance, where conducting large clinical trials can be expensive. Virtual physiological patients simulated by validated mathematical models can be utilized to obtain preclinical evidence of safety and assess the performance of the PCLC medical device during normal and worst-case conditions that are unlikely to happen in a limited clinical trial. A physiological variable that plays a major role during fluid resuscitation is heart rate (HR). For in silico assessment of PCLC medical devices regarding fluid perturbation, there is currently no mathematical model of HR validated in terms of its predictive capability performance. This paper develops and validates a mathematical model of HR response using data collected from sheep subjects undergoing hemorrhage and fluid infusion. The model proved to be accurate in estimating the HR response to fluid perturbation, where averaged between 21 calibration datasets, the fitting performance showed a normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of 7.41 ± 2.8%. The model was also evaluated in terms of model predictive capability performance via a leave-one-out procedure (21 subjects) and an independent validation dataset (6 subjects). Two different virtual cohort generation tools were used in each validation analysis. The generated envelope of virtual subjects robustly met the defined acceptance criteria, in which 95% of the testing datasets presented simulated HR patterns that were within a deviation of 50% from the observed data. In addition, out of 16000 and 18522 simulated subjects for the leave one-out and independent datasets, the model was able to generate at least one virtual subject that was close to the real subject within an error margin of 9.56 ± 3.15% and 11.1 ± 1.22% NRMSE, respectively. In conclusion, the model can generate valid virtual HR physiological responses to fluid perturbation and be incorporated into future non-clinical simulated testing setups for assessing PCLC devices intended for fluid resuscitation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The vertical-velocity skewness in the atmospheric boundary layer without buoyancy and Coriolis effects

One of the main features of near-neutral atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) turbulence is the positive vertical velocity skewness $Sk_w$ above the roughness sublayer or the buffer region in smooth-walls. The $Sk_w$ variations are receiving renewed interest in many climate-related parameterizations of the ABL given their significance to cloud formation and to testing sub-grid schemes for Large Eddy Simulations (LES). The vertical variations of $Sk_w$ are explored here using wind tunnel and flume experiments collected above smooth, rough, and permeable-walls in the absence of buoyancy and Coriolis effects. These laboratory experiments form a necessary starting point to probe the canonical structure of $Sk_w$ as they deal with a key limiting case (i.e., near-neutral conditions). Diagnostic models based on cumulant expansions, realizability constraints, and constant mass flux approach routinely employed in the convective boundary layer as well as prognostic models based on third-order budgets are used to explain variations in $Sk_w$ for the idealized laboratory conditions. The failure of flux-gradient relations to model $Sk_w$ from the gradients of the vertical velocity variance σ$_w^2$ are explained and corrections based on models of energy transport offered. Novel links between the diagnostic and prognostic models are also featured, especially for the inertial term in the third-order budget of the vertical velocity fluctuation. The co-spectral properties of w′/σ w vs w′ 2 /σ$_w^2$ are also presented for the first time to assess the dominant scales governing $Sk_w$ in the inner and outer layers, where w′ is the fluctuating vertical velocity and σ w is the vertical velocity standard deviation.>

Boundary layer flow↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying Site Effects and Their Influence on Earthquake Source Parameter Estimations Using a Dense Array in Oklahoma

We investigate the effects of site response on source parameter estimates using earthquakes recorded by the LArge-n Seismic Survey in Oklahoma (LASSO). While it is well known that near-surface unconsolidated sediments can cause an apparent breakdown of earthquake self-similarity, the influence of laterally varying site conditions remains unclear. We analyze site conditions across the 1825-station array on a river plain within an area of 40 km by 23 km using vertical ground motions from 14 regional earthquakes. While the source radiation pattern controls P-wave ground motions below 8 Hz, the surface geology correlates with P-wave ground motions above 8 Hz and S-wave ground motions at 2–21 Hz. Stations installed in alluvial sediments have vertical ground motions that can exceed three times the array median. We use the variation of ground motion of regional earthquakes across the array as a proxy for site effects. The corner frequencies and stress drops of local earthquakes ( M L = 0.01–3) estimated using a standard single-spectra approach show negative correlations with the site-effect proxy, while the seismic moments show positive correlations. In contrast, the spectral-ratio approach effectively shows no correlation. The overall bias is small as expected for this relatively homogeneous structure; accurate estimation of site-related biases requires at least 30 stations. Correcting for site-related biases reduces the standard deviations of the source parameters by less than 13% of the total variations. Remaining variations are partially associated with source directivity and model misfits— as small earthquakes can have complex ruptures.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

An acoustic investigation of the near-surface turbulence on Mars

The Perseverance rover is carrying out an original acoustic experiment on Mars: the SuperCam microphone records the spherical acoustic waves generated by laser sparks at distances from 2 m to more than 8 m. These N-shaped acoustic waves scatter from the multiple local heterogeneities of the turbulent atmosphere. Therefore, large and random fluctuations of sound travel time and intensity develop as the waves cross the medium. The variances of the travel times and the scintillation index (normalized variance of the sound intensity) are studied within the mathematical formalism of the propagation of spherical acoustic waves through thermal turbulence to infer statistical properties of the Mars atmospheric temperature fluctuation field. The comparison with the theory is made by simplifying assumptions that do not include wind fluctuations and diffraction effects. Two Earth years (about one Martian year) of observations acquired during the maximum convective period (10:00–14:00 Mars local time) show a good agreement between the dataset and the formalism: the travel time variance diverges from the linear Chernov solution exactly where the density of occurrence of the first caustic reaches its maximum. Moreover, on average, waves travel faster than the mean speed of sound due to a fast path effect, which is also observed on Earth. To account for the distribution of turbulent eddies, several power spectra are tested and the best match to observation is obtained with a generalized von Karman spectrum with a shallower slope than the Kolmogorov cascade, φ(k)∝(1 + k 2 L 2 ) -4/3 . It is associated with an outer scale of turbulence, L, of 11 cm at 2 m above the surface and a standard deviation of 6 K over 9 s for the temperature. These near-surface atmospheric properties are consistent with a weak to moderate wave scattering regime around noon with little saturation. Overall, this study presents an innovative and promising methodology to probe the near-surface atmospheric turbulence on Mars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effect of Anoxic Iron Corrosion on WIPP Brine Geochemistry FY23 Final Report (U)

A 280-day study was completed to evaluate the effect of zero-valent iron (Fe 0 ) on the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) brine geochemistry under anticipated reducing conditions. Hydrogen (H 2 ) gas is expected to be present in the repository after closure due to the anoxic corrosion of a vast quantity of iron contained in the waste forms disposed at WIPP; therefore, a background argon atmosphere containing H 2 was chosen for this study. WIPP groundwater brine pH and E h will impact the mobility and fate of plutonium within the repository. Modeling and laboratory results for Castile WIPP brine indicate that equilibrium fa values relative to the standard hydrogen electrode (SHE) are 40 mV more reducing (i.e., more negative) than those for Salado WIPP brine (-480 mV vs. -440 mV, respectively) because of the higher pH of the Castile brine (pH 9 .3 for Castile vs. pH 8.8 for Salado). The E h and pH data were corrected for the effects of high ionic strength. The experimental results for both brines are consistent with thermodynamic predictions using OLI Systems' Mixed Solvent Electrolyte chemical equilibrium model. The measured and corrected pH and E h data from this study are provided in Table ES-I and Table ES-2, respectively. The experimental study, with four test conditions in triplicate, was performed in a dual glovebox with a nominally 3 vol.% H 2 in argon atmosphere (target H 2 range: 3 ± I vol.%). Simulants containing MgO only ( experimental control) and MgO+Fe 0 (WIPP base case) were prepared for both the Salado and Castile brines. MgO was included in all simulants to account for the use of bulk magnesium oxide in the WIPP repository. Fe 0 was included in some simulants to incorporate the effects of the anoxic corrosion of iron and in-situ hydrogen generation in the study. The brine compositions were developed by Sandia National Laboratory (SNL; Xiong, 2008) and have been used in previous WIPP evaluations. The test method (agitation, etc.) is partially based on ASTM D3987-12. Twelve rounds of periodic measurements of pH and E h were performed over the course of the study. Chemical analysis results for liquids and solids (ICP-MS, ICP-ES, IC Anion, TIC, SEM-EDX) are consistent with the pH, E h , and thermodynamic modeling results. This study included the following conditions that deviate from anticipated post-closure conditions following brine intrusion, but were selected to facilitate bench-scale testing to validate modeling of pH and E h for the post-closure WIP P repository: an anoxic glove box atmosphere containing ≤ 4 vol. % H 2 vs. substantially higher H 2 gas concentrations assumed in the WIPP Performance Assessment (PA); a significantly higher liquid-to-solid test ratio compared to the much lower phase ratio anticipated in the WIP P repository; agitation of the simulant bottles to maximize mass transfer; and finally the use of Fe 0 reagents having a much greater surface area than expected in the WIP P repository. Non-representative conditions were chosen for various reasons such as: to provide bounding conservative results, to provide a margin of safety for testing, or to facilitate simulant sub-sampling and analysis. In a parallel effort, aqueous electrolyte thermodynamic models were developed for the synthetic Salado and Castile brines to inform the experimental design, facilitate laboratory data interpretation, and allow extension of evaluations beyond the parameters tested. Thermodynamic modeling simulations including the MgO and Fe 0 additives that are directly relevant to the experimental measurements (e.g., pH calibration curve, ORP corrections) are included in this report. The measured fa of the simulants was close to the OLI model predictions for both brines and was largely controlled by the background H 2 partial pressure in the vapor phase as well as H 2 generated in situ in the aqueous phase by the Fe 0 corrosion. The H 2 gas-phase concentration tested and thermodynamically evaluated was much lower than is assumed in the WIPP PA; however, H 2 (g) concentrations significantly below this level are still predicted to result in very reducing conditions. In conclusion: • The experimental results are consistent with thermodynamic model predictions for fa, pH, and the effects of high ionic strength. • Evidence to date suggests that the H2 concentration in the glovebox atmosphere ultimately determined the final E h values of the simulants and resulted in highly reducing conditions. As a result, little difference was observed between the control simulants containing only MgO and the WIPP base-case simulants that contained MgO and Fe 0 . • This test methodology is recommended for future studies evaluating WIPP repository conditions. The methodology includes: (1) background H 2 in argon with agitation ( or could alternatively include in-situ-generated H 2 in sealed bottles); (2) carefully measured and corrected ORP data ( with much effort focused on allowing the probes to fully stabilize); and (3) ionic-strength-corrected pH data. Other best practices, such as simulant sparging/handling, ORP probe replacement, etc., should also be considered. • The coupling of experimental studies and thermodynamic modeling is also highly recommended because these methods inform and direct one another leading to greater confidence in and understanding of the results.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Large eddy simulation of atmospheric boundary layer flow over complex terrain in comparison with RANS simulation and on-site measurements under neutral stability condition

Large eddy simulation (LES) of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) flow over complex terrain is presented with a validation using meteorological tower (met-tower) data through an improved neutral stability sampling approach. The proposed stability sampling procedure includes a condition based on the most-likely occurrence time-periods of the neutral ABL and reduces the variabilities of the conditional wind statistics calculated at the met-towers in comparison to our previous work. The ABL flow simulations are carried out over a potential wind site with a prominent hill based using the OpenFOAM-based simulator for on/off-shore wind farm applications by applying the Lagrangian-averaged scale-invariant dynamic sub-grid scale turbulence model. A low-dissipative scale-selective discretization scheme for the non-linear convection term in the LES governing equation is adopted implicitly to ensure both the second-order accuracy and bounded solution. The LES inflow is generated through a precursor method with a “tiling” approach based on the flow driving parameters obtained from a corresponding Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) simulation. Overall, the averaged wind velocity profiles predicted by the LES approach at all met-tower locations show a similar tendency as the RANS results, which are also in reasonable agreement with the met-tower data. An obvious difference in wind speed standard deviation profiles is seen between LES and RANS, especially at regions downstream of the hill edge, where the LES shows under-predicted results at the highest measurement levels in comparison to the tower data. The computational costs of the LES are found to be about 20 times higher than the RANS simulations.

Energy & Fuels↗
DOE OSTI2023

A hybrid data-driven and model-based approach for computationally efficient stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch under wind and solar uncertainty

Stochastic unit commitment (UC) and economic dispatch (ED) are imperative in dealing with uncertainty in renewable forecast for power system operation and planning such that the overall expected production cost is minimized over the planning horizon. However, accurate calculation of the expected production cost requires assessment of a very large number of different scenarios of uncertain renewable resources, such as solar and wind, which is practically infeasible to simulate in real time. This article proposes a hybrid datadriven and physics-based model-predictive paradigm to efficiently solve for stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch considering uncertainty in wind and solar power forecasts. Here, the novelty of the approach lies in decoupling the production cost estimation from the unit commitment and economic dispatch optimization problems under uncertainty without compromising on the fidelity of the solutions. A data-driven machine learning model is first developed to predict the mean optimal production cost. A physics-based inverse problem is then solved to get the stochastic UC and ED profiles from the expected cost. The presented approach considers, for the first time, solar uncertainty in UC/ED determination and enables efficient and accurate propagation of wind and solar uncertainty to estimate the statistics of the production cost. The effectiveness of the developed approach is demonstrated systematically on a stylized RTS-GMLC single-node system. The overall framework predicts the expected cost 62.5% more accurately than the existing state-of-the-art, on unforeseen days during the entire year, and yields, for the first time, the associated physically consistent UC and ED profiles. The solutions are also shown to be flexible in providing adequate daily reserves to address any statistical deviations from probabilistic power forecasts. The computational time associated with the presented method is only about 10 s compared to over 24 h needed for a conventional stochastic UC/ED determination under uncertainty on an Intel Core i9 processor with 32 GB of RAM.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Visualization of fast ion phase-space flow in plasmas well-below, near and well-above Alfvén eigenmode stability threshold in tokamak

Abstract Transport of fast ions along certain local phase space paths, referred to as fast ion phase-space flow, has been systematically measured by an imaging neutral particle analyzer (INPA) in three plasma regimes, which are well-below, near, and well-above the Alfvén eigenmode stability threshold (Du et al 2021 Phys. Rev. Lett. 127 235002). (1) In plasmas well-below the Alfvén eignenmodes (AE) stability threshold, fast ions are well-confined on passing particle orbits without noticeable transport over the phase space. The observed INPA images agree well with the synthetic INPA images, using the fast ion distribution predicted by neoclassical theory. (2) In plasmas near the AE stability threshold, INPA images in the presence of AE activity moderately deviate from those without AE activity. The image difference can be well interpreted by AE-driven, phase-space fast ion flow. Paths of this flow over the velocity space (or streamlines) are reconstructed by the intersection lines of curved E ʹ and µ surfaces, referred to as E ʹ and µ line (where E ′ ≡ E − ( ω / n ) P ζ ; E , P ζ and µ are the energy, canonical toroidal momentum and magnetic moment of ions; ω and n are the angular frequency and toroidal mode number of AEs, respectively). Resonant fast ions move radially inward by gaining energy and move radially outward by losing energy and the trajectory well aligns with the E ʹ and µ lines that pass through the mode resonances near the injection energy of neutral beams. (3) In plasmas well-above the AE stability threshold, fast ion phase-space dynamics shows additional features. Fast ions are transported out of the birth positions so promptly along the streamlines that the slowing-down process from the injection energy is not observable, exhibiting strong critical gradient behavior at local phase space. As a result, the increase of electron temperature is very small, in spite of an increase of beam power by ∼ 45 % . It should be emphasized that the directions of phase-space transport, induced by AEs with different frequencies, structures and mode numbers, do not largely differ.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying Errors in Effective Cluster Interactions of Lattice Gas Cluster Expansions

The promise of lattice gas (LG) cluster expansions (CEs) is that they can describe a given system property to any level of accuracy since the orthogonal “cluster basis functions” span the complete space of available configurations. Such an approach can be constructed to an arbitrarily large surface of a finite number of distinct adsorption sites. Unfortunately, this is only true for the case of an ideal, fixed lattice decorated with components at precise lattice points (the lattice “sites”) with no distortions or relaxations subsequently allowed. Since most systems, and surfaces specifically, do not conform to such an ideal set of constraints, errors in LG CEs must be expected or CE convergence severely hampered. Beyond this, numerical errors in the provided data can complicate the proper construction of a truly predictive and/or physically significant CE. In this work, we show here how reliance on typical statistical tools like confidence intervals cannot be expected to provide an accurate representation of the uncertainty of effective cluster interactions (ECIs) in the CE due to the nature of the target ab initio data and the nature of CEs themselves. We develop a method for estimating these errors that does not rely on statistical assumptions about the model or data. We then use these ECI errors to quantify fundamental consequences on the uncertainty of ECIs in CEs built from O/Fe(100) data whose surface and adsorbates have been allowed to relax in a typical manner and from O/Fe(100) data whose surface and adsorbates are fixed in ideal lattice positions. We also quantify the effect of using a different density functional theory exchange–correlation functional, using these ECI errors to assess the significance in any deviations. In both cases, our method is shown to have remarkable utility in the quantification of errors in the ECIs of CEs. While we stick to the lattice gas convention in this work, the method is equally applicable to the Ising convention or, in principle, any linear model of sufficient complexity.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2026

FolpsD: combining EFT and phenomenological approaches for joint power spectrum and bispectrum analyses

We present a theoretical model for the power spectrum and bispectrum of galaxy clustering that exploits the complementarity between small-scale power spectrum information and large-scale bispectrum measurements. We extend the FOLPS code by combining its one-loop EFT galaxy power spectrum with a tree-level galaxy bispectrum projected onto the tripolar spherical harmonics (Sugiyama) basis. To access additional small-scale information, we also consider a line-of-sight damping factor in both statistics, mirroring approaches commonly used in studies of redshift-space distortions. We test the model using DESI DR2 galaxy mocks. Even without damping, the joint analysis of the EFT power spectrum and bispectrum significantly improves constraints and reduces parameter degeneracies relative to power spectrum analyses alone. For LRG-like samples, including the damping further extends the range beyond $k\sim 0.3 \,h \text{Mpc}^{-1}$ in the power spectrum and $k \sim 0.24 \,h \text{Mpc}^{-1}$ in the bispectrum without introducing statistically significant parameter biases. This leads to up to $\sim 30\%$ tighter constraints on $A_s$ and $ω_{cdm}$. For low signal-to-noise tracers such as QSOs, however, the damping parameters are weakly constrained and can absorb noise fluctuations, leading to shifts in inferred parameters. Similar limitations may arise in models where cosmological information is encoded in power-spectrum shape features degenerate with the damping, such as scenarios with massive neutrinos. In contrast, for $w_0w_a$CDM we obtain $15\%$ and $21\%$ tighter constraints on $w_0$ and $w_a$, respectively, yielding a deviation from constant dark energy at slightly more than the $1σ$ level using full-shape information alone. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/cosmodesi/FolpsD

Bansal, P. [Michigan U., MCTP; Michigan U.] (ORCID↗
DOE OSTI2025

On a Critical Acceleration Scale of Dark Matter in ΛCDM and Dynamical Dark Energy

Abstract Universal acceleration a 0 emerges in various empirical laws, yet its fundamental nature remains unclear. Using Illustris and Virgo N -body simulations, we focus on the velocity and acceleration fluctuations in collisionless dark matter involving long-range gravity. For comparison, in the kinetic theory of gases, molecules undergo random elastic collisions involving short-range interactions, where only velocity fluctuations are relevant. Hierarchical structure formation proceeds through the merging of smaller halos to form larger halos, which facilitates a continuous energy cascade from small to large halos at a constant rate ε u ≈ −10 −7 m 2 s −3 . Velocity fluctuations involve a critical velocity u c ∝ (1 + z ) −3/4 . Acceleration fluctuations involve a critical acceleration a c ∝ (1 + z ) 3/4 . Two critical quantities are related by the rate of energy cascade ε u ≈ − a c u c /[2(3 π ) 2 ], where factor 3 π is from the angle of incidence during merging. With critical velocity u c on the order of 300 km s −1 at z = 0, the critical acceleration is determined to be a c 0 ≡ a c ( z = 0) ≈ 10 −10 m s −2 , suggesting a c might explain the universal acceleration a 0 ≈ 10 −10 m s −2 in the empirical Tully–Fisher relation or modified Newtonian dynamics. The redshift evolution a c ∝ (1 + z ) 3/4 is in good agreement with Magneticum and EAGLE simulations and in reasonable agreement with limited observations. This suggests a larger a 0 at a higher redshift such that galaxies of fixed mass rotate faster at a higher redshift. Note that for dark energy (DE) density ρ DE 0 ≈ a c 0 2 / G = 1 0 − 10 J m −3 , we postulate an entropic origin of the DE from acceleration fluctuations of dark matter, analogous to the gas pressure from velocity fluctuations. This leads to a dynamical DE coupled to the structure evolution involving a relatively constant DE density followed by a slow weakening phase, suggesting possible deviations from the standard ΛCDM paradigm.

N-body simulations↗