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NASA NTRS2000

A Network Mission: Completing the Scientific Foundation for the Exploration of Mars

Despite recent setbacks and vacillations in the Mars Surveyor Program, in many respects the exploration of Mars has historically followed a relatively logical path. Early fly-bys provided brief glimpses of the planet and paved the way for the initial orbital reconnaissance of Mariner 9. The Viking orbiters completed the initial survey, while the Viking landers provided our first close-up look at the surface. Essentially, Mars Pathfinder served a similar role, giving a brief look at another place on the surface. And finally, Mars Global Surveyor (and the up-coming orbital mission in 2001) are taking the next step in providing in-depth, global observations of many of the fundamental characteristics of the planet, as well as selected high-resolution views of the surface. With this last step we are well on our way to acquiring the global scientific context that is necessary both for understanding Mars in general, its origin and evolution, and for use as a basis to plan and execute the next level of focused investigations. However, even with the successful completion of these missions this context will be incomplete. Whereas we now know a great deal about the surface of Mars in a global sense, we know very little about its interior, even at depths of only a meter or so. Also, as most of this information has been acquire by remote sensing, we still lack much of the bridging knowledge between the global view and the processes and character of the surface environments themselves. Thus, in many ways we lack sufficient fundamental understanding to intelligently cast the critical investigations into important questions of the origins and evolution of Mars in general, and in particular, life. The next step in building our understanding of Mars has been identified by several previous groups who were charged with creating a strategy for Mars exploration (e.g., COMPLEX, MarSWG, Planetary Roadmap Team). This is a so-called "network" mission, which places a large number of science platforms simultaneously on the surface.

W. B. Banerdt↗
NASA NTRS1999

Putting the Aero Back Into Aeroelasticity

The lack of progress in understanding the physics of rotorcraft loads and vibration over the last 30 years is addressed in this paper. As befits this extraordinarily difficult problem, the reasons for the lack of progress are complicated and difficult to ascertain. It is proposed here that the difficulty lies within at least three areas: 1) a loss of perspective as to what are the key factors in rotor loads and vibration, 2) the overlooking of serious unsolved problems in the field, and 3) cultural barriers that impede progress. Some criteria are suggested for future research to provide a more concentrated focus on the problem.

Bousman, William G.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Runway Texture and Grid Pattern Effects on Rate-of-Descent Perception

To date, perceptual errors occur in determining descent rate from a computer-generated image in flight simulation. Pilots tend to touch down twice as hard in simulation than in flight, and more training time is needed in simulation before reaching steady-state performance. Barnes suggested that recognition of range may be the culprit, and he cited that problems such as collimated objects, binocular vision, and poor resolution lead to poor estimation of the velocity vector. Brown's study essentially ruled out that the lack of binocular vision is the problem. Dorfel added specificity to the problem by showing that pilots underestimated range in simulated scenes by 50% when 800 ft from the runway threshold. Palmer and Petitt showed that pilots are able to distinguish between a 1.7 ft/sec and 2.9 ft/sec sink rate when passively observing sink rates in a night scene. Platform motion also plays a role, as previous research has shown that the addition of substantial platform motion improves pilot estimates of vertical velocity and results in simulated touchdown rates more closely resembling flight. This experiment examined how some specific variations in the visual scene properties affect a pilot's perception of sink rate. It extended another experiment that focused on the visual and motion cues necessary for helicopter autorotations. In that experiment, pilots performed steep approaches to a runway. The visual content of the runway and its surroundings varied in two ways: texture and rectangular grid spacing. Four textures, included a no-texture case, were evaluated. Three grid spacings, including a no-grid case, were evaluated. The results showed that pilot better controlled their vertical descent rates when good texture cues were present. No significant differences were found for the grid manipulation. Using those visual scenes a simple psychophysics, experiment was performed. The purpose was to determine if the variations in the visual scenes allowed pilots to better perceive vertical velocity. To determine that answer, pilots passively viewed a particular visual scene in which the vehicle was descending at two different rates. Pilots had to select which of the two rates they thought was the fastest rate. The difference between the two rates changed using a staircase method, depending on whether or not the pilot was correct, until a minimum threshold between the two descent rates was reached. This process was repeated for all of the visual scenes to decide whether or not the visual scenes did allow pilots to perceive vertical velocity better among them. All of the data have yet to be analyzed; however, neither the effects of grid nor texture revealed any statistically significant trends. On further examination of the staircase method employed, a possibility exists that the lack of an evident trend may be due to the exit criterion used during the study. As such, the experiment will be repeated with an improved exit criterion in February. Results of this study will be presented in the submitted paper.

Schroeder, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS2001

FUSE Observations of Warm Gas in the Cooling Flow Clusters A1795 and A2597

We present far-ultraviolet spectroscopy of the cores of the massive cooling flow clusters Abell 1795 and 2597 obtained with FUSE. As the intracluster gas cools through 3 x 10(exp 5)K, it should emit strongly in the O VI lambda(lambda)1032,1038 resonance lines. We report the detection of O VI (lambda)1032 emission in A2597, with a line flux of 1.35 +/- 0.35 x 10(exp -15) erg/sq cm s, as well as detection of emission from C III (lambda)977. A marginal detection of C III (lambda)977 emission is also reported for A1795. These observations provide evidence for a direct link between the hot (10(exp 7) K) cooling flow gas and the cool (10(exp 4) K) gas in the optical emission line filaments. Assuming simple cooling flow models, the O VI line flux in A2597 corresponds to a mass deposition rate of approx. 40 solar mass /yr within the central 36 kpc. Emission from O VI (lambda)1032 was not detected in A1795, with an upper limit of 1.5 x 10(exp -15) erg/sq cm s, corresponding to a limit on the mass cooling flow rate of M(28 kpc) less than 28M solar mass/ yr. We have considered several explanations for the lack of detection of O VI emission in A1795 and the weaker than expected flux in A2597, including extinction by dust in the outer cluster, and quenching of thermal conduction by magnetic fields. We conclude that a turbulent mixing model, with some dust extinction, could explain our O VI results while also accounting for the puzzling lack of emission by Fe(sub XVII) in cluster cooling flows.

Oegerle, W. R.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Holographic Optical Data Storage

Although the basic idea may be traced back to the earlier X-ray diffraction studies of Sir W. L. Bragg, the holographic method as we know it was invented by D. Gabor in 1948 as a two-step lensless imaging technique to enhance the resolution of electron microscopy, for which he received the 1971 Nobel Prize in physics. The distinctive feature of holography is the recording of the object phase variations that carry the depth information, which is lost in conventional photography where only the intensity (= squared amplitude) distribution of an object is captured. Since all photosensitive media necessarily respond to the intensity incident upon them, an ingenious way had to be found to convert object phase into intensity variations, and Gabor achieved this by introducing a coherent reference wave along with the object wave during exposure. Gabor's in-line recording scheme, however, required the object in question to be largely transmissive, and could provide only marginal image quality due to unwanted terms simultaneously reconstructed along with the desired wavefront. Further handicapped by the lack of a strong coherent light source, optical holography thus seemed fated to remain just another scientific curiosity, until the field was revolutionized in the early 1960s by some major breakthroughs: the proposition and demonstration of the laser principle, the introduction of off-axis holography, and the invention of volume holography. Consequently, the remainder of that decade saw an exponential growth in research on theory, practice, and applications of holography. Today, holography not only boasts a wide variety of scientific and technical applications (e.g., holographic interferometry for strain, vibration, and flow analysis, microscopy and high-resolution imagery, imaging through distorting media, optical interconnects, holographic optical elements, optical neural networks, three-dimensional displays, data storage, etc.), but has become a prominent am advertising, and security medium as well. The evolution of holographic optical memories has followed a path not altogether different from holography itself, with several cycles of alternating interest over the past four decades. P. J. van Heerden is widely credited for being the first to elucidate the principles behind holographic data storage in a 1963 paper, predicting bit storage densities on the order of 1/lambda(sup 3) with source wavelength lambda - a fantastic capacity of nearly 1 TB/cu cm for visible light! The science and engineering of such a storage paradigm was heavily pursued thereafter, resulting in many novel hologram multiplexing techniques for dense data storage, as well as important advances in holographic recording materials. Ultimately, however, the lack of such enabling technologies as compact laser sources and high performance optical data I/O devices dampened the hopes for the development of a commercial product. After a period of relative dormancy, successful applications of holography in other arenas sparked a renewed interest in holographic data storage in the late 1980s and the early 1990s. Currently, with most of the critical optoelectronic device technologies in place and the quest for an ideal holographic recording medium intensified, holography is once again considered as one of several future data storage paradigms that may answer our constantly growing need for higher-capacity and faster-access memories.

Timucin, Dogan A.↗
NASA NTRS2001

NASA/University JOint VEnture (JOVE) Program: Transverse Shear Moduli Using the Torsional Responses of Rectangular Laminates

The first year included a study of the non-visible damage of composite overwrapped pressure vessels with B. Poe of the Materials Branch of Nasa-Langley. Early determinations showed a clear reduction in non-visible damage for thin COPVs when partially pressurized rather than unpressurized. Literature searches on Thicker-wall COPVs revealed surface damage but clearly visible. Analysis of current Analytic modeling indicated that that current COPV models lacked sufficient thickness corrections to predict impact damage. After a comprehensive study of available published data and numerous numerical studies based on observed data from Langley, the analytic framework for modeling the behavior was determined lacking and both Poe and Bogan suggested any short term (3yr) result for Jove would be overly ambitious and emphasis should be placed on transverse shear moduli studies. Transverse shear moduli determination is relevant to the study of fatigue, fracture and aging effects in composite structures. Based on the techniques developed by Daniel & Tsai, Bogan and Gates determined to verify the results for K3B and 8320. A detailed analytic and experimental plan was established and carried out that included variations in layup, width, thickness, and length. As well as loading rate variations to determine effects and relaxation moduli. The additional axial loads during the torsion testing were studied as was the placement of gages along the composite specimen. Of the proposed tasks, all of tasks I and 2 were completed with presentations given at Langley, SEM conferences and ASME/AIAA conferences. Sensitivity issues with the technique associated with the use of servohydraulic test systems for applying the torsional load to the composite specimen limited the torsion range for predictable and repeatable transverse shear properties. Bogan and Gates determined to diverge on research efforts with Gates continuing the experimental testing at Langley and Bogan modeling the apparent non-linear behavior at low torque & angles apparent from the tests.

Bogan, Sam↗
NASA NTRS1994

Communication Research in Aviation and Space Operations: Symptoms and Strategies of Crew Coordination

The day-to-day operators of today's aerospace systems work under increasing pressures to accomplish more with less. They work in operational systems which are complex, technology-based, and high-risk; in which incidents and accidents have far-reaching and costly consequences. For these and other reasons, there is concern that the safety net formerly built upon redundant systems and abundant resources may become overburdened. Although we know that human ingenuity can overcome incredible odds, human nature can also fail in unpredictable ways. Over the last 20 years, a large percentage of aviation accidents and incidents have been attributed to human errors rather than hardware or environmental factors alone. A class of errors have been identified which are not due to a lack of individual, technical competencies. Rather, they are due to the failure of teams to utilize readily available resources or information in a timely fashion. These insights began a training revolution in the aviation industry called Cockpit Resource Management, which later became known as Crew Resource Management (CRM) as its concepts and applications extended to teams beyond the flightdeck. Then, as now, communication has been a cornerstone in CRM training since crew coordination and resource management largely resides within information transfer processes--both within flightcrews, and between flightcrews and the ground operations teams that support them. The research I will describe takes its roots in CRM history as we began to study communication processes in order to discover symptoms of crew coordination problems, as well as strategies of effective crew management. On the one hand, communication is often the means or the tool by which team members manage their resources, solve problems, maintain situational awareness and procedural discipline. Conversely, it is the lack of planning and resource management, loss of vigilance and situational awareness, and non-standard communications that are implicated in accidents and incidents. NASA/Ames Crew Factors researchers have been developing a model of effective crew coordination in order to understand the sources of performance breakdowns, and to develop effective solutions and interventions. Because communication is a primary mechanism by which information is received and transmitted, and because it is observable behavior, we focus on these group processes in order to identify patterns of communication that distinguish effective from less effective crew performance. Since a prime objective is to develop training recommendations for enhancing communication skills, we interpret our findings in the context of relevant task and environmental conditions, role and procedural constraints, and the normal real-time parameters of flight operations. Another research objective is to consider how communication and coordination can be enhanced through design. For example, flight deck and hardware design as well as procedural and software design may greatly influence the efficiency with which crews communicate and coordinate their work. In addition, teams and tasks may be designed, organized, and trained so that team interactions with each other are based upon appropriately shared knowledge, procedures and situation awareness. In short, we are interested in enhancing communication practices through (1) the training of specific communication skills, and (2) the design of equipment, tasks, procedures, and teams that optimize smooth, unambiguous communication processes. Two examples of communication research will be described; one in aviation and one in space operations. The first example is a high-fidelity full mission simulation study which investigates the affect of flightdeck automation on crew coordination and communication (contrasting crew performance in the DC-9 vs. MD88). Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Kanki, Barbara G.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Aerosol Optical Properties over the Oceans: Summary and Interpretation of Shadow-Band Radiometer Data from Six Cruises

The aerosol scattering component of the total radiance measured at the detectors of ocean color satellites is determined with atmospheric correction algorithms. These algorithms are based on aerosol optical thickness measurements made in two channels that lie in the near-infrared portion of the electromagnetic spectrum. The aerosol properties in the near-infrared region are used because there is no significant contribution to the satellite-measured radiance from the underlying ocean surface in that spectral region. In the visible wavelength bands, the spectrum of radiation scattered from the turbid atmosphere is convolved with the spectrum of radiation scattered from the surface layers of the ocean. The radiance contribution made by aerosols in the visible bands is determined from the near-infrared measurements through the use of aerosol models and radiation transfer codes. Selection of appropriate aerosol models from the near-infrared measurements is a fundamental challenge. There are several challenges with respect to the development, improvement, and evaluation of satellite ocean-color atmospheric correction algorithms. A common thread among these challenges is the lack of over-ocean aerosol data. Until recently, one of the most important limitations has been the lack of techniques and instruments to make aerosol measurements at sea. There has been steady progress in this area over the past five years, and there are several new and promising devices and techniques for data collection. The development of new instruments and the collection of more aerosol data from over the world's oceans have brought the realization that aerosol measurements that can be directly compared with aerosol measurements from ocean color satellite measurements are difficult to obtain. There are two problems that limit these types of comparisons: the cloudiness of the atmosphere over the world's oceans and the limitations of the techniques and instruments used to collect aerosol data from ships. To address the latter, we have developed a new type of shipboard sun photometer.

Miller, Mark A.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Intercalibration of Meteorological Satellite Imagers Using VIRS, ATSR-2 and MODIS

Global retrievals of surface, cloud and radiative properties from geostationary (GEO) and low-Earth-orbit (LEO) meteorological satellites require accurate calibration of their imagers. An accurate and consistent calibration increases the reliability and effectiveness of long-term monitoring of climate changes. More emphasis has been placed on calibrating the thermal infrared (IR) channel. The lack of on-board calibration in the visible (VIS) channel has prompted efforts to characterize the degradation of the VIS sensor using vicarious post-launch calibration techniques that measure bright stable desert targets from space and aircraft or using satellite-to-satellite normalizations. While such inter-calibrations are valuable and widely used, the lack of a well-characterized calibration reference source and the lengthy time delay between updates have minimized their effectiveness in climate monitoring. To address these shortcomings, this paper examines the use of research satellite imagers to provide stable calibration references for the visible (VIS, approximately 0.65 micrometers) channels and develops a method for rapid intercalibration of existing satellites. Calibration coefficients are determined for the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES-8 to GOES-10), Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (GMS-5), Meteosat-7, and the NOAA-14 Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). As a reference calibration source, this technique uses the self-calibrating sensors on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Visible Infrared Radiometers (VIRS) or the ERS-2 Along Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR-2). GOES-8 is calibrated with VIRS and then its calibration is transferred to other GEO or LEO satellites. The absolute accuracy of this technique relies on the assumption that the on-board calibration is stable and well maintained. Minnis et al. assessed the VIRS calibration using comparisons with other self-calibrated satellite sensors including the broadband Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) scanners, the ERS-2 Along Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR-2), and the Terra Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS). Thus, the VIRS data can be confidently used as the initial reference source.

Nguyen, Louis↗
NASA NTRS2001

Stress-Rupture and Stress-Relaxation of SiC/SiC Composites at Intermediate Temperature

Tensile static stress and static strain experiments were performed on woven Sylramic (Dow Corning, Midland, MI) and Hi-Nicalon (Nippon Carbon, Japan) fiber reinforced, BN interphase, melt-infiltrated SiC matrix composites at 815 C. Acoustic emission was used to monitor the damage accumulation during the test. The stress-rupture properties of Sylramic composites were superior to that of Hi-Nicalon Tm composites. Conversely, the applied strain levels that Hi-Nicalon composites can withstand for stress-relaxation experiments were superior to Sylramic composites; however, at a cost of poor retained strength properties for Hi-Nicalon composites. Sylramic composites exhibited much less stress-oxidation induced matrix cracking compared to Hi-Nicalon composites. This was attributed to the greater stiffness and roughness of Sylramic fibers themselves and the lack of a carbon layer between the fiber and the BN interphase for Sylramic composites, which existed in Hi-Nicalon composites. Due to the lack of stress-relief for Sylramic composites, time to failure for Sylramic composite stress-relaxation experiments was not much longer than for stress-rupture experiments when comparing the peak stress condition for stress-relaxation with the applied stress of stress-rupture.

Morscher, Gregory N.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Parallel Processing of Adaptive Meshes with Load Balancing

Many scientific applications involve grids that lack a uniform underlying structure. These applications are often also dynamic in nature in that the grid structure significantly changes between successive phases of execution. In parallel computing environments, mesh adaptation of unstructured grids through selective refinement/coarsening has proven to be an effective approach. However, achieving load balance while minimizing interprocessor communication and redistribution costs is a difficult problem. Traditional dynamic load balancers are mostly inadequate because they lack a global view of system loads across processors. In this paper, we propose a novel and general-purpose load balancer that utilizes symmetric broadcast networks (SBN) as the underlying communication topology, and compare its performance with a successful global load balancing environment, called PLUM, specifically created to handle adaptive unstructured applications. Our experimental results on an IBM SP2 demonstrate that the SBN-based load balancer achieves lower redistribution costs than that under PLUM by overlapping processing and data migration.

Das, Sajal K.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Relationship between Jovian Hectometric Attenuation Lanes And Io Volcanic Activity

Within the Galileo plasma wave instrument data a narrow (in frequency) attenuation band is seen in the hectometric (HOM) emission that varies in frequency with system III longitude. This attenuation lane is believed to be the result of near-grazing incidence or coherent scattering of radio emission near the outer edge of the Io torus, i.e., when the ray path is nearly tangent to an L shell containing the Io flux tube. Such a process should, therefore, be enhanced when the Io volcanic activity is increased and the Io flux tube has enhanced density. We have performed a systematic study of the existing Galileo radio emission data in an effort to determine the phenomenology and frequency of occurrence of the attenuation lanes and the association, if any, with published volcanic activity of Io. Our results indicate that the attenuation lanes are present almost all of the time but are enhanced on occasion. The best examples of attenuation lanes occur when Galileo is within approximately 65 R(sub J) of Jupiter and thus are probably more apparent because of the increased signal-to-noise ratio of the radio receivers. The lack of continuous monitoring of Io activity and the lack of known activity on the anti-Earthward side of Io are problematic and make detailed correlation with radio emission very difficult at this time. Nevertheless, if the data are displayed for periods when the spacecraft is within 65 R(sub J) (i.e., for each perijove pass), then the highest-contrast lanes occur on most passes when the Io volcanic activity is also high for that pass. These results support our current understanding of attenuation lane formation and suggest that future efforts can be made to better understand the interaction of HOM emission with the Io flux tube.

Menietti, J. D.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Organics In Meteorites

The variety of classes of organic compounds that occur in carbonaceous meteorites suggests a rich pre-planetary chemistry with possible connections to interstellar, solar nebular and parent body processes. Structural diversity prevails within all classes examined in detail. Among amino acids for instance, all possible isomers are found up to species containing 4-6 carbon atoms, with abundances decreasing with increasing molecular weight. Such diversity seems limited to those carbonaceous meteorites which show evidence of having been exposed to liquid water; meteorites lacking such evidence also show much lower abundances and less structural diversity in their organic contents. This apparent dependency on water suggests a role for cometary ices in the chemical evolution of organic compounds on parent bodies. Measurements of the stable isotope compositions of C, H, N and S in classes of compounds and at the individual compound level show strong deviations from average chondritic values. These deviations are difficult to explain by solar system or parent body processes, and precedents for some of these isotopic anomalies exist in interstellar (e.g., high D/H ratios) and circumstellar chemistry. Therefore, presolar origins for much if not all of the meteoritic organic compounds (or their precursors) is a distinct possibility. In contrast, evidence of solar nebular origins is either lacking or suspect. Results from molecular and isotopic analyses of meteoritic organics, from laboratory simulations and from a model of interstellar grain reactions will be used to flesh out the hypothesis that this material originated with interstellar chemistry, was distributed within the early solar system as cometary ices, and was subsequently altered on meteorite parent bodies to yield the observed compounds.

Chang, Sherwood↗
NASA NTRS2002

Use of TRMM Data to Test an Improved Parameterization of Stratiform Precipitation

We successfully implemented our EAUcup parameterization of convection in our most recent geodesic-grid version of the Colorado State University General Circulation Model (CSU GCM). Tendencies due to convection and large-scale cloud microphysics are computed using the same time-step, allowing smoother interactions between convective and large-scale moist processes. Figures illustrate our most recent progress on the simulation of convective and stratiform precipitations for January. Comparisons against TRMM precipitation radar (PR) data would reveal a systematic overestimation of the simulated monthly-mean convective rainfall over well-known areas of deep convection. One major deficiency in the global distribution of stratiform precipitation simulated in the CSU GCM is the lack of stratiform precipitation over land in the tropics. This result strongly disagree with Fowler and Randall who show that convective and stratiform precipitations always coexist and that their ratio to the total precipitation is about 0.5. We believe that stratiform precipitation over land evaporates before reaching the ground because the lower troposphere remains too dry in response to the lack of convective detrainment occurring immediately above the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL). This issue is further investigated at present. We made significant progress in the development of our parameterization of fractional cloudiness. As an example of our ongoing research effort, a figure shows the global distribution of the cloud ice mixing ratio and corresponding fractional area of ice clouds at 250 hPa. These results were obtained using our latitude-longitude grid version of the CSU GCM. There is a nice correspondence between areas of high (low) values of the cloud ice mixing ratio and the cloud fraction. A nice correspondence between the global distribution of the cloud water mixing ratio and fraction of water clouds in the lower troposphere can also be found. We are pursuing this effort, but in the geodesic version of the GCM. We hope to be able to make comparison of the simulated precipitation against TRMM precipitation data in the near future.

Randall, David A.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Dynamic Load Balancing for Adaptive Meshes using Symmetric Broadcast Networks

Many scientific applications involve grids that lack a uniform underlying structure. These applications are often dynamic in the sense that the grid structure significantly changes between successive phases of execution. In parallel computing environments, mesh adaptation of grids through selective refinement/coarsening has proven to be an effective approach. However, achieving load balance while minimizing inter-processor communication and redistribution costs is a difficult problem. Traditional dynamic load balancers are mostly inadequate because they lack a global view across processors. In this paper, we compare a novel load balancer that utilizes symmetric broadcast networks (SBN) to a successful global load balancing environment (PLUM) created to handle adaptive unstructured applications. Our experimental results on the IBM SP2 demonstrate that performance of the proposed SBN load balancer is comparable to results achieved under PLUM.

Das, Sajal K.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Willpower

I am struck by how often failure is blamed on a lack of discipline. You often hear losing coaches cite this as the reason for a big loss. I don't recall the last time I heard one say that his team lost a game because of his players' lack of skill. I think a breakdown in discipline is also one of the key reasons why program and project management teams fail to meet expectations. The first program I ever managed had a clear set of priorities. I understood the mandate, and so did everyone else on the team. We set an ambitious schedule and started to work fervently. Not too long into the program the customer wanted to know what performance he was going to get. I replied by categorizing the performance parameters into three bins: 1. Performance you will get. 2. Performance you may get. 3. Performance that there's no way you will get. Did that cause an uproar. The customer demanded everything in the second bin be moved to the first, and most everything in the third bin moved to the second. My immediate impulse was to agree, but I managed to overcome that. In my heart, I knew that we would never meet the already ambitious schedule if we had to deliver more performance. No was my answer. The program turned out to be a huge success, but the result would have been largely different had senior management or I failed to maintain discipline.

Little, Terry↗
NASA NTRS2002

Mass Conservation in a Chemical Transport Model and its Effect on CO2 and SF6 Simulations

Chemical transport models (CTMs) must conserve mass to be useful for applications involving assessment of the effect of various pollutants on the troposphere and stratosphere. Furthermore, calculations of the evolution of constituents such as SF6 are used to evaluate overall model transport, and interpretation of such simulations is clouded if mass conservation is not assured. For realistic simulations or predictions, it is crucial that constituents are not produced or lost by transport or other processes in the CTMs. Analysis of CO2 and SF6 experiments using a CTM shows that problems with mass conservation can seriously degrade the simulations. Failure to conserve mass results from inconsistency of the surface pressure tendency and the divergence of horizontal mass flux when the model is forced by assimilated meteorological data. We have developed an effective method to eliminate the inconsistency by modifying the divergent part of the wind field. The changes in the wind fields are quite small but the impact on mass conservation is large. Parameterizations of physical processes such as convection or turbulent transport can also affect mass conservation. The lack of conservation is small but accumulates when integrations are lengthy such as required for SF6. This lack of conservation is found using winds from either a GCM or from an assimilation system. A simple adjustment removes much of the inaccuracy in the convective parameterization. A CO2 simulation using assimilated winds from the most recent version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System will be used to illustrate the impact of these transport improvements.

Zhu, Z.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections for Exploration Missions: Uncertainty Reduction and Mitigation

In this paper we discuss expected lifetime excess cancer risks for astronauts returning from exploration class missions. For the first time we make a quantitative assessment of uncertainties in cancer risk projections for space radiation exposures. Late effects from the high charge and energy (HZE) ions present in the galactic cosmic rays including cancer and the poorly understood risks to the central nervous system constitute the major risks. Methods used to project risk in low Earth orbit are seen as highly uncertain for projecting risks on exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data available for estimating HZE ion risks. Cancer risk projections are described as a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective error distributions represents the lack of knowledge in each factor to quantify risk projection overall uncertainty. Cancer risk analysis is applied to several exploration mission scenarios. At solar minimum, the number of days in space where career risk of less than the limiting 3% excess cancer mortality can be assured at a 95% confidence level is found to be only of the order of 100 days.

Cucinotta, Francis↗