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At least 667 records · Page 37

Use of artificial intelligence in supervisory control

Viewgraphs describing the design and testing of an intelligent decision support system called OFMspert are presented. In this expert system, knowledge about the human operator is represented through an operator/system model referred to as the OFM (Operator Function Model). OFMspert uses the blackboard model of problem solving to maintain a dynamic representation of operator goals, plans, tasks, and actions given previous operator actions and current system state. Results of an experiment to assess OFMspert's intent inferencing capability are outlined. Finally, the overall design philosophy for an intelligent tutoring system (OFMTutor) for operators of complex dynamic systems is summarized.

Cohen, Aaron↗

Observational benchmarks inform representation of soil organic carbon dynamics in land surface models

Abstract. Representing soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics in Earth system models (ESMs) is a key source of uncertainty in predicting carbon–climate feedbacks. Machine learning models can help identify dominant environmental controllers and establish their functional relationships with SOC stocks. The resulting knowledge can be integrated into ESMs to reduce uncertainty and improve predictions of SOC dynamics over space and time. In this study, we used a large number of SOC field observations (n=54 000), geospatial datasets of environmental factors (n=46), and two machine learning approaches (namely random forest, RF, and generalized additive modeling, GAM) to (1) identify dominant environmental controllers of global and biome-specific SOC stocks, (2) derive functional relationships between environmental controllers and SOC stocks, and (3) compare the identified environmental controllers and predictive relationships with those in models used in Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Our results showed that the diurnal temperature, drought index, cation exchange capacity, and precipitation were important observed environmental predictors of global SOC stocks. While the RF model identified 14 environmental factors that describe climatic, vegetation, and edaphic conditions as important predictors of global SOC stocks (R2=0.61, RMSE = 0.46 kg m−2), current ESMs oversimplify the relationships between environmental factors and SOC, with precipitation, temperature, and net primary productivity explaining > 96 % of the variability in ESM-modeled SOC stocks. Further, our study revealed notable disparities among the functional relationships between environmental factors and SOC stocks simulated by ESMs compared with observed relationships. To improve SOC representations in ESMs, it is imperative to incorporate additional environmental controls, such as the cation exchange capacity, and refine the functional relationships to align more closely with observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An efficient representation of spatial information for expert reasoning in robotic vehicles

The previous generation of robotic vehicles and drones was designed for a specific task, with limited flexibility in executing their mission. This limited flexibility arises because the robotic vehicles do not possess the intelligence and knowledge upon which to make significant tactical decisions. Current development of robotic vehicles is toward increased intelligence and capabilities, adapting to a changing environment and altering mission objectives. The latest techniques in artificial intelligence (AI) are being employed to increase the robotic vehicle's intelligent decision-making capabilities. This document describes the design of the SARA spatial database tool, which is composed of request parser, reasoning, computations, and database modules that collectively manage and derive information useful for robotic vehicles.

Scott, Steven↗

Fully implicit crystal plasticity models representing orientations with modified Rodrigues parameters

Here, this work describes a crystal plasticity formulation combining several mathematical, numerical, and implementation choices to produce a highly efficient model. Specifically, the key choices in the implementation are (1) representing orientations with modified Rodrigues parameters, (2) implementing a fully coupled implicit time integration for the elastic stretch, the crystal orientations, and the model internal variables, (3) implementing the model in the NEML2 constitutive modeling framework, based on PyTorch, to vectorize the calculations and port the computation to GPUs and other hardware accelerators, and (4) an exact implementation of the consistent tangent matrix, even for arbitrary coupling to other field variables beyond the displacements, like temperature, neutron fluence, etc. The first two features of the model are, to our knowledge, novel. The paper considers each of these choices individually as well as the final model as a whole. This includes a full description of modified Rodrigues parameters, their advantages over other representations of orientations, the mathematical formulae and tools required to implement a model with modified Rodrigues parameters, and a detailed description of the geometry of the space of modified Rodrigues parameters (in an appendix). It also includes a description of a fully implicit time integration scheme for the orientations and the advantages in representing orientations with modified Rodrigues parameters in implementing such a model. The work then assess, via numerical examples, the advantages of fully coupled implicit time integration versus more common decoupled and explicit time integration schemes. These studies demonstrate the computational advantages of fully coupled integration versus other time integration algorithms, though the performance of the competing models depends on the complexity of the underlying single crystal model. The study concludes by demonstrating that the choice of time integration method affects the sharpness of the predicted texture, with explicit methods for integrating the orientations overestimating texture sharpness and implicit methods underestimating texture sharpness.

Crystal plasticity↗

Techniques for capturing expert knowledge - An expert systems/hypertext approach

The knowledge-acquisition strategy developed for the Explosive Hazards Classification (EHC) Expert System is described in which expert systems and hypertext are combined, and broad applications are proposed. The EHC expert system is based on rapid prototyping in which primary knowledge acquisition from experts is not emphasized; the explosive hazards technical bulletin, technical guidance, and minimal interviewing are used to develop the knowledge-based system. Hypertext is used to capture the technical information with respect to four issues including procedural, materials, test, and classification issues. The hypertext display allows the integration of multiple knowlege representations such as clarifications or opinions, and thereby allows the performance of a broad range of tasks on a single machine. Among other recommendations, it is suggested that the integration of hypertext and expert systems makes the resulting synergistic system highly efficient.

Lafferty, Larry↗

Feature Acquisition with Imbalanced Training Data

This work considers cost-sensitive feature acquisition that attempts to classify a candidate datapoint from incomplete information. In this task, an agent acquires features of the datapoint using one or more costly diagnostic tests, and eventually ascribes a classification label. A cost function describes both the penalties for feature acquisition, as well as misclassification errors. A common solution is a Cost Sensitive Decision Tree (CSDT), a branching sequence of tests with features acquired at interior decision points and class assignment at the leaves. CSDT's can incorporate a wide range of diagnostic tests and can reflect arbitrary cost structures. They are particularly useful for online applications due to their low computational overhead. In this innovation, CSDT's are applied to cost-sensitive feature acquisition where the goal is to recognize very rare or unique phenomena in real time. Example applications from this domain include four areas. In stream processing, one seeks unique events in a real time data stream that is too large to store. In fault protection, a system must adapt quickly to react to anticipated errors by triggering repair activities or follow- up diagnostics. With real-time sensor networks, one seeks to classify unique, new events as they occur. With observational sciences, a new generation of instrumentation seeks unique events through online analysis of large observational datasets. This work presents a solution based on transfer learning principles that permits principled CSDT learning while exploiting any prior knowledge of the designer to correct both between-class and withinclass imbalance. Training examples are adaptively reweighted based on a decomposition of the data attributes. The result is a new, nonparametric representation that matches the anticipated attribute distribution for the target events.

Thompson, David R.↗

In-Time UAV Flight-Trajectory Estimation and Tracking Using Bayesian Filters

Rapid increase of UAV operation in the next decade in areas of on-demand delivery, medical transportation services, law enforcement, traffic surveillance and several others pose potential risks to the low altitude airspace above densely populated areas. Safety assessment of airspace demands the need for a novel UAV traffic management (UTM) framework for regulation and tracking of the vehicles. Particularly for low-altitude UAV operations, quality of GPS measurements feeding into the UAV is often compromised by loss of communication link caused by presence of trees or tall buildings in proximity to the UAV flight path. Inaccurate GPS locations may yield to unreliable monitoring and inaccurate prognosis of remaining battery life and other safety metrics which rely on future expected trajectory of the UAV. This work therefore proposes a generalized monitoring and prediction methodology for autonomous UAVs using in-time GPS measurements. Firstly, a typical 4D smooth trajectory generation technique from a series of waypoint locations with associated expected times-of-arrival based on B-spline curves is presented. Initial uncertainty in the vehicle's expected cruise velocity is quantified to compute confidence intervals along the entire flight trajectory using error interval propagation approach. Further, the generated planned trajectory is considered as the prior knowledge which is updated during its flight with incoming GPS measurements in order to estimate its current location and corresponding kinematic profiles. Estimation of position is denoted in dicrete state-space representation such that position at a future time step is derived from position and velocity at current time step and expected velocity at the future time step. A linear Bayesian filtering algorithm is employed to efficiently refine position estimation from noisy GPS measurements and update the confidence intervals. Further, a dynamic re-planning strategy is implemented to incorporate unexpected detour or delay scenarios. Finally, critical challenges related to uncertainty quantification in trajectory prognosis for autonomous vehicles are identified, and potential solutions are discussed at the end of the paper. The entire monitoring framework is demonstrated on real UAV flight experiments conducted at the NASA Langley Research Center.

Banerjee, Portia↗

Identifying Meteorological Influences on Marine Low Cloud Mesoscale Morphology Using Satellite Classifications

Marine low cloud mesoscale morphology in the southeastern Pacific Ocean is analyzed using a large dataset of machine-learning generated classifications spanning three years. Meteorological variables and cloud properties are composited 10by mesoscale cloud type, showing distinct meteorological regimes of marine low cloud organization from the tropics to the midlatitudes. The presentation of mesoscale cellular convection, with respect to geographic distribution, boundary layer structure, and large-scale environmental conditions, agrees with prior knowledge. Two tropical and subtropical cumuliform boundary layer regimes, suppressed cumulus and clustered cumulus, are studied in detail. The patterns in precipitation, circulation, column water vapor, and cloudiness are consistent with the representation of marine shallow mesoscale convective 15 self-aggregation by large eddy simulations of the boundary layer. Although they occur under similar large-scale conditions, the suppressed and clustered low cloud types are found to be well-separated by variables associated with low-level mesoscale circulation, with surface wind divergence being the clearest discriminator between them, whether reanalysis or satellite observations are used. Clustered regimes are associated with surface convergence and suppressed regimes are associated with surface divergence.

Johannes Mohrmann↗

Ocean Carbon From Space: Current Status and Priorities for the Next Decade

The ocean plays a central role in modulating the Earth’s carbon cycle. Monitoring how the ocean carbon cycle is changing is fundamental to managing climate change. Satellite remote sensing is currently our best tool for viewing the ocean surface globally and systematically, at high spatial and temporal resolutions, and the past few decades have seen an exponential growth in studies utilising satellite data for ocean carbon research. Satellite-based observations must be combined with in-situ observations and models, to obtain a comprehensive view of ocean carbon pools and fluxes. To help prioritise future research in this area, a workshop was organised that assembled leading experts working on the topic, from around the world, including remote-sensing scientists, field scientists and modellers, with the goal to articulate a collective view of the current status of ocean carbon research, identify gaps in knowledge, and formulate a scientific roadmap for the next decade, with an emphasis on evaluating where satellite remote sensing may contribute. A total of 449 scientists and stakeholders participated (with balanced gender representation), from North and South America, Europe, Asia, Africa, and Oceania. Sessions targeted both inorganic and organic pools of carbon in the ocean, in both dissolved and particulate form, as well as major fluxes of carbon between reservoirs (e.g., primary production) and at interfaces (e.g., air-sea and land–ocean). Extreme events, blue carbon and carbon budgeting were also key topics discussed. Emerging priorities identified include: expanding the networks and quality of in-situ observations; improved satellite retrievals; improved uncertainty quantification; improved understanding of vertical distributions; integration with models; improved techniques to bridge spatial and temporal scales of the different data sources; and improved fundamental understanding of the ocean carbon cycle, and of the interactions among pools of carbon and light. We also report on priorities for the specific pools and fluxes studied, and highlight issues and concerns that arose during discussions, such as the need to consider the environmental impact of satellites or space activities; the role satellites can play in monitoring ocean carbon dioxide removal approaches; economic valuation of the satellite based information; to consider how satellites can contribute to monitoring cycles of other important climatically-relevant compounds and elements; to promote diversity and inclusivity in ocean carbon research; to bring together communities working on different aspects of planetary carbon; maximising use of international bodies; to follow an open science approach; to explore new and innovative ways to remotely monitor ocean carbon; and to harness quantum computing. Overall, this paper provides a comprehensive scientific roadmap for the next decade on how satellite remote sensing could help monitor the ocean carbon cycle, and its links to the other domains, such as terrestrial and atmosphere.

oceanography↗

Scalable Knowledge Graph Analytics at 136 Petaflop/s

We are motivated by newly proposed methods for data mining large-scale corpora of scholarly publications, such as the full biomedical literature, which may consist of tens of millions of papers spanning decades of research. In this setting, analysts seek to discover how concepts relate to one another. They construct graph representations from annotated text databases and then formulate the relationship-mining problem as one of computing all-pairs shortest paths (APSP), which becomes a significant bottleneck. In this context, we present a new high-performance algorithm and implementation of the Floyd-Warshall algorithm for distributed-memory parallel computers accelerated by GPUs, which we call DSNAPSHOT (Distributed Accelerated Semiring All-Pairs Shortest Path). For our largest experiments, we ran DSNAPSHOT on a connected input graph with millions of vertices using 4, 096nodes (24,576GPUs) of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory's Summit supercomputer system. We find DSNAPSHOT achieves a sustained performance of 136×1015 floating-point operations per second (136petaflop/s) at a parallel efficiency of 90% under weak scaling and, in absolute speed, 70% of the best possible performance given our computation (in the single-precision tropical semiring or “min-plus” algebra). Looking forward, we believe this novel capability will enable the mining of scholarly knowledge corpora when embedded and integrated into artificial intelligence-driven natural language processing workflows at scale.

Kannan, Ramakrishnan {ramki}↗

X-ray diffraction under grazing incidence conditions

Material properties frequently relate to structures at or near surfaces, particularly in thin films. As a result, it is essential to understand these structures at the molecular and atomistic levels. The most accurate and widely used techniques for characterizing crystallographic order are based on X-ray diffraction. When dealing with thin films or interfaces, standard approaches, such as single crystal or powder diffraction, are not suitable. However, X-ray diffraction under grazing incidence conditions can provide the required information. Here, in this Primer, grazing incidence X-ray diffraction (GIXD) is comprehensively introduced, starting from basic considerations on X-ray diffraction at crystals with reduced dimensionality and the optical properties of X-rays, followed by a more in-depth description of an experimental performance, including X-ray sources, goniometers and detectors. Experimental errors, limitations and reproducibility are discussed. Various applications, from highly ordered inorganic single crystal surfaces to weakly ordered polymer thin films, are presented to illustrate the potential of GIXD. Data visualizations, representations and evaluation strategies are summarized, based on the example of anthracene thin films. The Primer compiles information relevant to perform high-quality GIXD experiments, evaluate data and interpret results, to extend knowledge about X-ray diffraction from surfaces, interfaces and thin films.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

User interface support

Space construction will require heavy investment in the development of a wide variety of user interfaces for the computer-based tools that will be involved at every stage of construction operations. Using today's technology, user interface development is very expensive for two reasons: (1) specialized and scarce programming skills are required to implement the necessary graphical representations and complex control regimes for high-quality interfaces; (2) iteration on prototypes is required to meet user and task requirements, since these are difficult to anticipate with current (and foreseeable) design knowledge. We are attacking this problem by building a user interface development tool based on extensions to the spreadsheet model of computation. The tool provides high-level support for graphical user interfaces and permits dynamic modification of interfaces, without requiring conventional programming concepts and skills.

Lewis, Clayton↗

When ancient numerical demons meet physics-informed machine learning: adjoint-based gradients for implicit differentiable modeling

Recent advances in differentiable modeling, a genre of physics-informed machine learning that trains neural networks (NNs) together with process-based equations, have shown promise in enhancing hydrological models' accuracy, interpretability, and knowledge-discovery potential. Current differentiable models are efficient for NN-based parameter regionalization, but the simple explicit numerical schemes paired with sequential calculations (operator splitting) can incur numerical errors whose impacts on models' representation power and learned parameters are not clear. Implicit schemes, however, cannot rely on automatic differentiation to calculate gradients due to potential issues of gradient vanishing and memory demand. Here we propose a “discretize-then-optimize” adjoint method to enable differentiable implicit numerical schemes for the first time for large-scale hydrological modeling. The adjoint model demonstrates comprehensively improved performance, with Kling–Gupta efficiency coefficients, peak-flow and low-flow metrics, and evapotranspiration that moderately surpass the already-competitive explicit model. Therefore, the previous sequential-calculation approach had a detrimental impact on the model's ability to represent hydrological dynamics. Furthermore, with a structural update that describes capillary rise, the adjoint model can better describe baseflow in arid regions and also produce low flows that outperform even pure machine learning methods such as long short-term memory networks. The adjoint model rectified some parameter distortions but did not alter spatial parameter distributions, demonstrating the robustness of regionalized parameterization. Despite higher computational expenses and modest improvements, the adjoint model's success removes the barrier for complex implicit schemes to enrich differentiable modeling in hydrology.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Computer-implemented method and apparatus for autonomous position determination using magnetic field data

A computer-implemented method and apparatus for determining position of a vehicle within 100 km autonomously from magnetic field measurements and attitude data without a priori knowledge of position. An inverted dipole solution of two possible position solutions for each measurement of magnetic field data are deterministically calculated by a program controlled processor solving the inverted first order spherical harmonic representation of the geomagnetic field for two unit position vectors 180 degrees apart and a vehicle distance from the center of the earth. Correction schemes such as a successive substitutions and a Newton-Raphson method are applied to each dipole. The two position solutions for each measurement are saved separately. Velocity vectors for the position solutions are calculated so that a total energy difference for each of the two resultant position paths is computed. The position path with the smaller absolute total energy difference is chosen as the true position path of the vehicle.

Ketchum, Eleanor A.↗

Narrowing Uncertainties in the Effects of Elevated CO2 on Crops

Plant responses to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, together with projected variations in temperature and precipitation will determine future agricultural production. Estimates of the impacts of climate change on agriculture provide essential information to design effective adaptation strategies, and develop sustainable food systems. Here, we review the current experimental evidence and crop models on the effects of elevated CO2 concentrations. Recent concerted efforts have narrowed the uncertainties in CO2-induced crop responses so that climate change impact simulations omitting CO2 can now be eliminated. To address remaining knowledge gaps and uncertainties in estimating the effects of elevated CO2 and climate change on crops, future research should expand experiments on more crop species under a wider range of growing conditions, improve the representation of responses to climate extremes in crop models, and simulate additional crop physiological processes related to nutritional quality.

carbon dioxide (CO2)↗

Dynamic edge warping - An experimental system for recovering disparity maps in weakly constrained systems

Dynamic edge warping (DEW), a technique for recovering reasonably accurate disparity maps from uncalibrated stereo image pairs, is presented. No precise knowledge of the epipolar camera geometry is assumed. The technique is embedded in a system including structural stereopsis on the front end and robust estimation in digital photogrammetry on the other for the purpose of self-calibrating stereo image pairs. Once the relative camera orientation is known, the epipolar geometry is computed and the system can use this information to refine its representation of the object space. Such a system will find application in the autonomous extraction of terrain maps from stereo aerial photographs, for which camera position and orientation are unknown a priori, and for online autonomous calibration maintenance for robotic vision applications, in which the cameras are subject to vibration and other physical disturbances after calibration. This work thus forms a component of an intelligent system that begins with a pair of images and, having only vague knowledge of the conditions under which they were acquired, produces an accurate, dense, relative depth map. The resulting disparity map can also be used directly in some high-level applications involving qualitative scene analysis, spatial reasoning, and perceptual organization of the object space. The system as a whole substitutes high-level information and constraints for precise geometric knowledge in driving and constraining the early correspondence process.

Boyer, K. L.↗

Climate-invariant machine learning

Projecting climate change is a generalization problem: We extrapolate the recent past using physical models across past, present, and future climates. Current climate models require representations of processes that occur at scales smaller than model grid size, which have been the main source of model projection uncertainty. Recent machine learning (ML) algorithms hold promise to improve such process representations but tend to extrapolate poorly to climate regimes that they were not trained on. To get the best of the physical and statistical worlds, we propose a framework, termed “climate-invariant” ML, incorporating knowledge of climate processes into ML algorithms, and show that it can maintain high offline accuracy across a wide range of climate conditions and configurations in three distinct atmospheric models. Our results suggest that explicitly incorporating physical knowledge into data-driven models of Earth system processes can improve their consistency, data efficiency, and generalizability across climate regimes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Essential Function Analysis Capability

The Essential Function Analysis Capability (EFAC) is an extension of the All Hazards Knowledge Framework (AHA) and is a dynamic analytical framework that enables critical infrastructure knowledge discovery and decision support across the five mission areas – prevention, protection, mitigation, response and recovery. EFAC provides the ability to store and model infrastructure systems as a linked multigraphs providing an intuitive and natural representation. These infrastructure systems can then be tied to the organizational and essential function breakdown of an entity. This capability provides the foundation to rapidly evaluate and understand the potential consequences of manmade and natural disaster on these infrastructure systems and essential functions.

Hoover, MichaelJ.↗