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At least 667 records · Page 37

Evaluation of Nominal Energy Storage at Existing Hydropower Reservoirs in the US

Long-term planning and operation of hydropower reservoirs require an understanding of both water and energy storage. As energy storage needs of the evolving grid increase, we must account for the water and energy storage potential of these reservoirs. Given the limitations of current data on existing hydropower, we compile statistics related to storage volume and hydraulic head from publicly available data sets and examine differences in descriptions of US hydropower storage. Assembled characteristics are used to calculate nominal energy storage capacity, a simple measure of potential to generate power from a given volume of water, not factoring in detailed constraints. Inventory-based estimates of energy storage are calculated at 2,075 dams, which helps put the potential for US hydropower to support energy storage in context with similar evaluations in other regions and with other energy storage technologies. The national energy storage capacity ranges between 34.5 and 45.1 TWh depending on the information used, with 52% of energy storage located at the 10 largest reservoirs in the US. Energy storage capacities are also calculated at 236 dams with historical volume and elevation data. Finally, reservoir inflows provide context for the storage volumes and sensitivities to hydrologic variability. Larger reservoirs with greater storage volume to inflow ratios are concentrated in the Western US, but the majority of hydropower reservoirs store less than the annual inflow. We address several infrastructure and water resource informatics challenges and highlight remaining issues, including representing seasonal or shorter variability in water volumes and representing connected hydropower facilities.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Forest Carbon Storage in the Western United States: Distribution, Drivers, and Trends

Abstract Forests are a large carbon sink and could serve as natural climate solutions that help moderate future warming. Thus, establishing forest carbon baselines is essential for tracking climate‐mitigation targets. Western US forests are natural climate solution hotspots but are profoundly threatened by drought and altered disturbance regimes. How these factors shape spatial patterns of carbon storage and carbon change over time is poorly resolved. Here, we estimate live and dead forest carbon density in 19 forested western US ecoregions with national inventory data (2005–2019) to determine: (a) current carbon distributions, (b) underpinning drivers, and (c) recent trends. Potential drivers of current carbon included harvest, wildfire, insect and disease, topography, and climate. Using random forests, we evaluated driver importance and relationships with current live and dead carbon within ecoregions. We assessed trends using linear models. Pacific Northwest (PNW) and Southwest (SW) ecoregions were most and least carbon dense, respectively. Climate was an important carbon driver in the SW and Lower Rockies. Fire reduced live and increased dead carbon, and was most important in the Upper Rockies and California. No ecoregion was unaffected by fire. Harvest and private ownership reduced carbon, particularly in the PNW. Since 2005, live carbon declined across much of the western US, likely from drought and fire. Carbon has increased in PNW ecoregions, likely recovering from past harvest, but recent record fire years may alter trajectories. Our results provide insight into western US forest carbon function and future vulnerabilities, which is vital for effective climate change mitigation strategies.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Tonian Carbonates Record Phosphate-Rich Shallow Seas

The early-middle Neoproterozoic is thought to have witnessed significant perturbations to marine P cycling, in turn facilitating the rise of eukaryote-dominated primary production. However, with few robust constraints on aqueous P concentrations, current understanding of Neoproterozoic P cycling is generally model-dependent. To provide new geochemical constraints, we combined microanalytical data sets with solid-state Nuclear Magnetic Resonance, synchrotron-based X-ray Absorption Near Edge Structure spectroscopy, and micro-X-ray Fluorescence imaging to characterize the speciation and distribution of P in Tonian shallow-water carbonate rocks. These data reflect shallow water phosphate concentrations 10–100× higher than modern systems, supporting the hypothesis that tectonically-driven influxes in P periodically initiated kinetically-controlled CaCO 3 deposition, in turn destabilizing marine carbonate chemistry, climate, and nutrient inventories. Alongside these observations, a new compilation and statistical analysis of mudstone geochemistry data indicates that, in parallel, C org and P burial increased across later Tonian continental margins until becoming decoupled at the close of the Tonian, implicating widespread N-limitation triggered by increasing atmospheric O 2 .

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Climate Change Will Increase Biomass Proportion of Global Forest Carbon Stocks Under an SSP5–8.5 Climate Trajectory

Abstract A large amount of carbon is stored in global forests. However, the fraction of carbon stored as plant biomass versus soil organic carbon (SOC) varies among forest types, and potential changes over the 21st century are uncertain. Here, we used extensive data derived from inventories and remote sensing and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to examine the current and 21st century dynamics in the proportion of biomass and SOC across global forests. We found that precipitation, elevation, soil, and wildfire were the primary controls of these differences in carbon pools. Under the SSP5–8.5 climate scenario, CMIP6 models project that the ratio of biomass to ecosystem carbon in global forests will increase across the 21st century, with the largest increases in boreal forests (95 ± 37%) compared to moist tropical forests (16 ± 15%). Changes in forest carbon pools resulting in greater biomass fraction will affect disturbance, and ecosystem carbon and energy balances, all of which interact with the climate system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sensitive Response of Atmospheric Oxidative Capacity to the Uncertainty in the Emissions of Nitric Oxide (NO) From Soils in Amazonia

Abstract Soils are a major source of nitrogen oxides, which in the atmosphere help govern its oxidative capacity. Thus the response of soil nitric oxide (NO) emissions to forcings such as warming or forest loss has a meaningful impact on global atmospheric chemistry. We find that the soil emission rate of NO in Amazonia from a common inventory is biased low by at least an order of magnitude in comparison to tower‐based observations. Accounting for this regional bias decreases the modeled global methane lifetime by 1.4%–2.6%. In comparison, a fully deforested Amazonia, representing a 37% decrease in global emissions of isoprene, decreases methane lifetime by at most 4.6%, highlighting the sensitive response of oxidation rates to changes in emissions of NO compared to those of terpenes. Our results demonstrate that improving our understanding of soil NO emissions will yield a more accurate representation of atmospheric oxidative capacity.

Geology↗

Constraining Present‐Day Anthropogenic Total Iron Emissions Using Model and Observations

Abstract Iron emissions from human activities, such as oil combustion and smelting, affect the Earth's climate and marine ecosystems. These emissions are difficult to quantify accurately due to a lack of observations, particularly in remote ocean regions. In this study, we used long‐term, near‐source observations in areas with a dominance of anthropogenic iron emissions in various parts of the world to better estimate the total amount of anthropogenic iron emissions. We also used a statistical source apportionment method to identify the anthropogenic components and their sub‐sources from bulk aerosol observations in the United States. We find that the estimates of anthropogenic iron emissions are within a factor of 3 in most regions compared to previous inventory estimates. Under‐ or overestimation varied by region and depended on the number of sites, interannual variability, and the statistical filter choice. Smelting‐related iron emissions are overestimated by a factor of 1.5 in East Asia compared to previous estimates. More long‐term iron observations and the consideration of the influence of dust and wildfires could help reduce the uncertainty in anthropogenic iron emissions estimates.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Hyper‐Local Temperature Prediction Using Detailed Urban Climate Informatics

The accurate modeling of urban microclimate is a challenging task given the high surface heterogeneity of urban land cover and the vertical structure of street morphology. Recent years have witnessed significant efforts in numerical modeling and data collection of the urban environment. Nonetheless, it is difficult for the physical‐based models to fully utilize the high‐resolution data under the constraints of computing resources. The advancement in machine learning (ML) techniques offers the computational strength to handle the massive volume of data. In this study, we proposed a modeling framework that uses ML approach to estimate point‐scale street‐level air temperature from the urban‐resolving meso‐scale climate model and a suite of hyper‐resolution urban geospatial data sets, including three‐dimensional urban morphology, parcel‐level land use inventory, and weather observations from a sensor network. We implemented this approach in the City of Chicago as a case study to demonstrate the capability of the framework. The proposed approach vastly improves the resolution of temperature predictions in cities, which will help the city with walkability, drivability, and heat‐related behavioral studies. Moreover, we tested the model's reliability on out‐of‐sample locations to investigate the modeling uncertainties and the application potentials to the other areas. This study aims to gain insights into next‐gen urban climate modeling and guide the observation efforts in cities to build the strength for the holistic understanding of urban microclimate dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

North‐East Peri‐Tethyan Water Column Deoxygenation and Euxinia at the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum

Abstract The Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) is associated with climatic change and biological turnover. It shares features with the Oceanic Anoxic Events (OAEs) of the Mesozoic, such as transient global warming and biogeochemical perturbations. However, the PETM experienced a more muted expansion of marine anoxia compared to the Mesozoic OAEs (especially OAE2), with geographically limited evidence for photic zone euxinia (PZE). We explore the extent and drivers of marine deoxygenation during the PETM using biomarkers for water column euxinia and anoxia as well as an intermediate complexity Earth system model (cGEnIE). These reveal that the water column in the North‐East Peri‐Tethys became anoxic, with euxinic conditions reaching the photic zone (PZE) during the PETM. Our model shows that euxinia developed due to a global increase in the ocean nutrient inventory with concomitant oxygen consumption, similar to findings for OAE2. The particularly strong regional response in the NE Peri‐Tethys appears to arise from a combination of global CO 2 ‐weathering forcing, regionally restricted circulation and upwelling of sulphidic thermocline waters. Unlike OAE2, anoxia and PZE do not become widespread in our PETM simulations, consistent with new and existing geochemical and biological proxy data. This globally muted response could result from reduced biogeochemical feedbacks to climate forcing relative to the mid‐Cretaceous climate. Our observations suggest that similar mechanisms operated in response to disparate Cenozoic (PETM) and Mesozoic (OAEs) transient global warming events, while also highlighting that background conditions are crucial in modulating the sensitivity of Earth's system to them.

Behrooz, L.↗

Estimates of Lake Nitrogen, Phosphorus, and Chlorophyll‐ a Concentrations to Characterize Harmful Algal Bloom Risk Across the United States

Abstract Excess nutrient pollution contributes to the formation of harmful algal blooms (HABs) that compromise fisheries and recreation and that can directly endanger human and animal health via cyanotoxins. Efforts to quantify the occurrence, drivers, and severity of HABs across large areas is difficult due to the resource intensive nature of field monitoring of lake nutrient and chlorophyll‐aconcentrations. To better characterize how nutrients interact with other environmental factors to produce algal blooms in freshwater systems, we used spatially explicit and temporally matched climate, landscape, in‐lake characteristic, and nutrient inventory data sets to predict nutrients and chlorophyll‐aacross the conterminous US (CONUS). Using a nested modeling approach, three random forest (RF) models were trained to explain the spatiotemporal variation in total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and chlorophyll‐aconcentrations across US EPA's National Lakes Assessment (n = 2,062). Concentrations of TN and TP were the most important predictors and, with other variables, the RF model accounted for 68% of variation in chlorophyll‐a. We then used these RF models to extrapolate lake TN and TP predictions to lakes without nutrient observations and predict chlorophyll‐afor ∼112,000 lakes across the CONUS. Risk for high chlorophyll‐aconcentrations is highest in the agriculturally dominated Midwest, but other areas of risk emerge in nutrient pollution hot spots across the country. These catchment and lake‐specific results can help managers identify potential nutrient pollution and chlorophyll‐ahot spots that may fuel blooms, prioritize at‐risk lakes for additional monitoring, and optimize management to protect human health and other environmental end goals.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Long‐Term Impacts of Global Solid Biofuel Emissions on Ambient Air Quality and Human Health for 2000–2019

Globally, solid biofuels (SB) have been widely used for household cooking and energy production for decades due to electricity shortages and socio-economic barriers to adopting renewable energy alternatives. This has detrimental effects on air quality, human health, and climate through trace gas and aerosol emissions. Despite numerous studies, the long-term consequences of SB emissions remain poorly understood. Here, we use the Community Earth System Model and the Community Emissions Data System emission inventory to investigate the SB emission impacts on air quality and human health for 2000–2019. Global SB emission increased the ambient PM 2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters ≤2.5 μm) and ozone (O 3 ) concentrations up to 23.61 μg/m 3 and 13.69 ppbv, with significant effects found in India, China, and the Rest of Asia (ROA). Our study estimates total annual premature deaths (APDs) associated with global SB-attributable PM 2.5 and O 3 exposure as 1.11 million [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.00–1.22 million] in 2000 up to 1.43 million (95% CI: 1.30–1.56 million) in 2019. China's SB emissions and associated APDs have reduced substantially, whereas India and ROA had a major leap in both estimates in 2019 compared to 2000. China's progress in cutting residential SB emissions accounts for its improvements. Our study urges the reduction of SB usage and emissions to potentially improve overall air quality and human health conditions, especially in highly populated, low- and middle-income countries, where the poor air quality and associated health burden attributable to SB emissions are estimated to be higher.

O 3↗

Comparison of Global Aboveground Biomass Estimates From Satellite Observations and Dynamic Global Vegetation Models

The global forest carbon stocks represent the amount of carbon stored in woody vegetation and are important for quantifying the ability of the global forests to sequester atmospheric CO 2 and to provide ecosystem services (e.g., timber) under climate change. The forest ecosystem carbon pool estimates are highly variable and poorly quantified in areas lacking forest inventory estimates. Here, we compare and analyze aboveground biomass (AGB) estimates from five satellite-based global data sets and nine dynamic global vegetation models (DVGMs). We find that across the data sets, mean AGB exhibits the largest variability around the tropical area. In addition, AGB shows a similar latitudinal trend but large variability among the data sets. Satellite-based AGB estimates are lower than those simulated by DVGMs. The divergence among the satellite-based AGB estimates can be driven by the methodology, input satellite products, and the forested areas used to estimate AGB. The modeled NPP, autotrophic respiration, and carbon allocation mostly drive the variability of AGB simulated by DGVMs. The future availability of a high-quality global forest area map is anticipated to improve AGB estimate accuracy and to reduce the discrepancies among different satellite- and model-based AGB estimates. Furthermore, we suggest the carbon-modeling community reexamine the methodology used to estimate AGB and forested areas for a more robust global forest carbon stock estimation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

China's Contribution to Arctic Black Carbon Declined From 2009 to 2022

Black carbon (BC) aerosol is an important driver of Arctic warming, and China used to be a major contributor to the Arctic BC burden through long-range atmospheric transport. Here we show that China's contribution declined significantly from 2009 to 2022, primarily due to reductions in domestic BC emissions following the implementation of clean air policies. Global chemistry-transport model simulations indicate a relative decline of ∼3% yr −1 ( p < 0.05) in China's Arctic BC contribution, exceeding the decrease rate in the underlying emission inventory. Sensitivity simulations further suggest that climate change-induced shifts in atmospheric transport may have amplified this decline. Observations of aerosol absorption coefficients (σ ap ) at Arctic background observatories revealed steeper declines in σ ap when modeled China-to-total BC ratios were higher. Moreover, σ ap correlated positively with modeled BC from China, with stronger relationships as the modeled China-to-total BC ratios increased. Together, these results provide robust evidence that China's emission reductions have diminished its role in Arctic BC, contributing an estimated 0.02 W m −2 decrease in the direct radiative effect during the Arctic haze season.

GEOS-chem model↗

Southern Ocean Sulfate Aerosol Sources Quantified From Sulfur Isotopes in Antarctic Ice Cores

The Southern Ocean has emerged as a key region for constraining aerosol-climate interactions due to its relatively low anthropogenic influence. Sulfate is an important aerosol over the Southern Ocean, and models suggest dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is the largest source of sulfate during summer. However, sulfur isotopes of sulfate (δ 34 S(SO 4 2− )) in Antarctic ice cores suggest a significant contribution from a previously unexplained non-DMS source. Here we show that the fractional contribution from passive volcanic degassing (f volc ) explains observed δ 34 S(SO 4 2− ), and that a global chemical transport model underestimates f volc across Antarctica. Underestimated f volc implies that the model mischaracterizes sulfate sources in this important region. The discrepancy between observed and modeled sulfate sources can be reconciled by increasing passive volcanic sulfur degassing emissions and decreasing DMS emissions. Our results imply that current biases in emissions inventories could bias assessments of aerosol-cloud interactions in the Southern Ocean region and globally.

Jongebloed, Ursula A. [Univ. of Washington, Seattl↗

Modeling Mycorrhizal Carbon Costs in Temperate Forests: The Impacts of Functional Diversity and Global Change Factors

Mycorrhizal fungi form symbiotic relationships with most plant species, facilitating nutrient acquisition while consuming a significant fraction of the plant's photosynthetic carbon (C), which we define as the mycorrhizal C cost. Drivers of the mycorrhizal C cost, which is crucial for predicting environmental impacts on plant productivity, remain under-explored and difficult to quantify. Ecosystem models that incorporate mycorrhizae can offer insights into mycorrhizal C cost dynamics, but their predictions have rarely been validated against empirical data. Here, in this study, we used the Myco-CORPSE model, which explicitly simulates mycorrhizal processes alongside soil carbon and nitrogen cycling, to investigate the drivers of mycorrhizal C cost in temperate forests. Applying this model to over 1,800 forest inventory plots across the eastern United States, we found that the simulations matched published data, showing higher C allocation to ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi (16.0% of net primary production (NPP)) compared to arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi (5.8% of NPP). Further analysis showed that mixed forests, co-dominated by both AM and ECM trees, allocated less C to mycorrhizal fungi compared to forests dominated by either AM or ECM fungi alone, due to complementary nutrient acquisition strategies. Elevated Nitrogen (N) deposition and higher temperatures reduce mycorrhizal C costs, favoring AM strategies. Conversely, elevated CO 2 (eCO 2 ) increased plant N demand and mycorrhizal C costs, favoring ECM strategies that access organic N sources. These findings underscore the critical role of mycorrhizal functional diversity in plant nutrient acquisition and C dynamics, providing new insights into how mycorrhizal symbioses respond to global change.

Shao, Siya [Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH (United↗

Forest tree growth is linked to mycorrhizal fungal composition and function across Europe

Most trees form symbioses with ectomycorrhizal fungi (EMF) which influence access to growth-limiting soil resources. Mesocosm experiments repeatedly show that EMF species differentially affect plant development, yet whether these effects ripple up to influence the growth of entire forests remains unknown. Here we tested the effects of EMF composition and functional genes relative to variation in well-known drivers of tree growth by combining paired molecular EMF surveys with high-resolution forest inventory data across 15 European countries. We show that EMF composition was linked to a three-fold difference in tree growth rate even when controlling for the primary abiotic drivers of tree growth. Fast tree growth was associated with EMF communities harboring high inorganic but low organic nitrogen acquisition gene proportions and EMF which form contact versus medium-distance fringe exploration types. These findings suggest that EMF composition is a strong bio-indicator of underlying drivers of tree growth and/or that variation of forest EMF communities causes differences in tree growth. While it may be too early to assign causality or directionality, our study is one of the first to link fine-scale variation within a key component of the forest microbiome to ecosystem functioning at a continental scale.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ecological divergence of syntopic marine bacterial species is shaped by gene content and expression

Identifying mechanisms by which bacterial species evolve and maintain genomic diversity is particularly challenging for the uncultured lineages that dominate the surface ocean. A longitudinal analysis of bacterial genes, genomes, and transcripts during a coastal phytoplankton bloom revealed two co-occurring, highly related Rhodobacteraceae species from the deeply branching and uncultured NAC11-7 lineage. These have identical 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequences, yet their genome contents assembled from metagenomes and single cells indicate species-level divergence. Moreover, shifts in relative dominance of the species during dynamic bloom conditions over 7 weeks confirmed the syntopic species’ divergent responses to the same microenvironment at the same time. Genes unique to each species and genes shared but divergent in per-cell inventories of mRNAs accounted for 5% of the species’ pangenome content. These analyses uncover physiological and ecological features that differentiate the species, including capacities for organic carbon utilization, attributes of the cell surface, metal requirements, and vitamin biosynthesis. Such insights into the coexistence of highly related and ecologically similar bacterial species in their shared natural habitat are rare.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Nitrogen and phosphorous acquisition strategies drive coexistence patterns among archaeal lineages in soil

Soil represents the largest reservoir of Archaea on Earth. Present-day archaeal diversity in soils globally is dominated by members of the class Nitrososphaeria. The evolutionary radiation of this class is thought to reflect adaptations to a wide range of temperatures, pH, and other environmental conditions. However, the mechanisms that govern competition and coexistence among Nitrososphaeria lineages in soil remain poorly understood. Here we show that predominant soil Nitrososphaeria lineages compose a patchwork of gene inventory and expression profiles for ammonia, urea, and phosphate utilization. In contrast, carbon fixation, respiration, and ATP synthesis genes are conserved and expressed consistently among predominant phylotypes across 12 major evolutionary lineages commonly found in soil. In situ gene expression profiles closely resemble pure culture reference strains under optimal growth conditions. Together, these results reveal resource-based coexistence patterns among Nitrososphaeria lineages and suggest complementary ecophysiological niches associated with differential nutrient acquisition strategies among globally predominant archaeal lineages in soil.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Automated exploitation of the big configuration space of large adsorbates on transition metals reveals chemistry feasibility

Mechanistic understanding of large molecule conversion and the discovery of suitable heterogeneous catalysts have been lagging due to the combinatorial inventory of intermediates and the inability of humans to enumerate all structures. Here, we introduce an automated framework to predict stable configurations on transition metal surfaces and demonstrate its validity for adsorbates with up to 6 carbon and oxygen atoms on 11 metals, enabling the exploration of ~10 8 potential configurations. It combines a graph enumeration platform, force field, multi-fidelity DFT calculations, and first-principles trained machine learning. Clusters in the data reveal groups of catalysts stabilizing different structures and expose selective catalysts for showcase transformations, such as the ethylene epoxidation on Ag and Cu and the lack of C-C scission chemistry on Au. Deviations from the commonly assumed atom valency rule of small adsorbates are also manifested. This library can be leveraged to identify catalysts for converting large molecules computationally.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗