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At least 667 records · Page 37
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

An Alternative Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Approach Using Improved Subseasonal Precipitation Forecasts from the North America Multi-Model Ensemble Phase II

In this article, streamflow forecasting at a subseasonal time scale (10–30 days into the future) is important for various human activities. The ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) is a widely applied technique for subseasonal streamflow forecasting. However, ESP’s reliance on the randomly resampled historical precipitation limits its predictive capability. Available dynamical subseasonal precipitation forecasts provide an alternative to the randomly resampled precipitation in ESP. Prior studies found the predictive performance of raw subseasonal precipitation forecast is limited in many regions such as the central south of the United States, which raises questions about its effectiveness in assisting streamflow forecasting. To further assess the hydrologic applicability of dynamical subseasonal precipitation forecasts, we test the subseasonal precipitation forecast from North America Multi-Model Ensemble Phase II (NMME-2) at four watersheds in the central south region of the United States. The subseasonal precipitation forecasts are postprocessed with bias correction and spatial disaggregation (BCSD) to correct bias and improve spatial resolution before replacing the randomly resampled precipitation in ESP for streamflow predictions. The performance of the resulting streamflow predictions is benchmarked with ESP. Evaluation is conducted using Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE), continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratios (FARs), as well as reliability diagrams. Our results suggest that BCSD-corrected subseasonal precipitation forecasts lead to overall improved streamflow predictions due to added skills in winter and spring. Our results also suggest that BCSD-corrected subseasonal precipitation forecasts lead to improved predictions on the occurrence of high-percentile streamflow values above 75%. Overall, BCSD-corrected subseasonal precipitation has shown promising performance, highlighting its potential broader applications for river and flood forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Improving Solution Accuracy and Convergence for Stochastic Physics Parameterizations with Colored Noise

Stochastic parameterizations are used in numerical weather prediction and climate modeling to help capture the uncertainty in the simulations and improve their statistical properties. Convergence issues can arise when time integration methods originally developed for deterministic differential equations are applied naively to stochastic problems. In previous studies, it has been demonstrated that a correction term, known in stochastic analysis as the Itô correction, can help improve solution accuracy for various deterministic numerical schemes and ensure convergence to the physically relevant solution without substantial computational overhead. The usual formulation of the Itô correction is valid only when the stochasticity is represented by white noise. In this study, a generalized formulation of the Itô correction is derived for noises of any color. The formulation is applied to a test problem described by an advection–diffusion equation forced with a spectrum of fast processes. We present numerical results for cases with both constant and spatially varying advection velocities to show that, for the same time step sizes, the introduction of the generalized Itô correction helps to substantially reduce time integration error and significantly improve the convergence rate of the numerical solutions when the forcing term in the governing equation is rough (fast varying); alternatively, for the same target accuracy, the generalized Itô correction allows for the use of significantly longer time steps and, hence, helps to reduce the computational cost of the numerical simulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Do Machine Learning Approaches Offer Skill Improvement for Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Gust Occurrence and Magnitude?

Abstract Wind gusts, and in particular intense gusts, are societally relevant but extremely challenging to forecast. This study systematically assesses the skill enhancement that can be achieved using artificial neural networks (ANNs) for forecasting of wind gust occurrence and magnitude. Geophysical predictors from the ERA5 reanalysis are used in conjunction with an autoregressive term in regression and ANN models with different predictors, and varying model complexity. Models are derived and assessed for the warm (April–September) and cold (October–March) seasons for three high passenger volume airports in the United States. Model uncertainty is assessed by deriving models for 1000 different randomly selected training (70%) and testing (30%) subsets. Gust prediction fidelity in independent test samples is critically dependent on inclusion of an autoregressive term. Gust occurrence probabilities derived using five-layer ANNs exhibit consistently higher fidelity than those from regression models and shallower ANNs. Inclusion of the autoregressive term and increasing the number of hidden layers in ANNs from 1 to 5 also improve the model performance for gust magnitudes (lower RMSE, increased correlation, and model standard deviations that more closely approximate observed values). Deeper ANNs (e.g., 20 hidden layers) exhibit higher skill in forecasting strong (17–25.7 m s −1 ) and damaging (≥25.7 m s −1 ) wind gusts. However, such deep networks exhibit evidence of overfitting and still substantially underestimate (by 50%) the frequency of strong and damaging wind gusts at the three airports considered herein. Significance Statement Improved short-term forecasting of wind gusts will enhance aviation safety and logistics and may offer other societal benefits. Here we present a rigorous investigation of the relative skill of models of wind gust occurrence and magnitude that employ different statistical methods. It is shown that artificial neural networks (ANNs) offer considerable skill enhancement over regression methods, particularly for strong and damaging wind gusts. For wind gust magnitudes in particular, application of deeper learning networks (e.g., five or more hidden layers) offers tangible improvements in forecast accuracy. However, deeper networks are vulnerable to overfitting and exhibit substantial variability with the specific training and testing data subset used. Also, even deep ANNs reproduce only half of strong and damaging wind gusts. These results indicate the need for future work to elucidate the dynamical mechanisms of intense wind gusts and advance solutions to their prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Additive-Mixing Fuel Injection (AMFI): A device for robust control and improved performance of high-efficiency LTGC engines

Low-temperature gasoline combustion (LTGC) engines can provide high efficiencies with very low NOx and particulate emissions. Despite these major advantages, methods for controlling LTGC combustion timing, achieving robust autoignition, and good low-load performance have challenged the development of practical LTGC engines. A key reason is that the ideal reactivity of the fuel varies with operating conditions, with low-reactivity fuels working well at high loads and higher-reactivity fuels working better at low loads. This article introduces a new technique called Additive Mixing Fuel Injection (AMFI) that adjusts the reactivity of the gasoline to obtain good performance over the operating map. Moreover, AMFI can provide robust combustion-timing control because it precisely meters very small amounts (0.01–0.6 mm 3 ) of an ignition-enhancing additive into the fuel each engine cycle. The additive used was 2-ethylhexyl nitrate (EHN), a common, inexpensive diesel-fuel ignition improver, but other additives could be used. Because additive amounts are so small, a 2-gal reservoir would be sufficient for medium-duty applications with refilling only at service intervals of about 8000 mi. The AMFI system has been installed on a single-cylinder LTGC research engine and demonstrated to provide robust combustion-timing control over wide ranges of combustion phasing, fueling rate, intake boost, engine speed, and intake temperature. AMFI also increases the fuel’s reactivity sufficiently to greatly reduce or eliminate the need for charge heating, simplifying engine design and significantly increasing thermal efficiency and the maximum load at low-boost conditions. The nitrogen in the EHN produced a modest increase in NOx, but it was mitigated by lower intake temperatures, and NOx emissions remained very low. Finally, the additive increases the sensitivity of autoignition reactions to variations in the local fuel/air mixture within the charge. This allows the use of controlled fuel stratification for improved LTGC-engine performance, and its potential to improve low-load operation was demonstrated.

Dec, John E.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Enabling off-highway diesel engine downsizing and performance improvement using electrically assisted turbocharging

Internal combustion engine (ICE) downsizing through various turbocharging configurations is generally known by the powertrain design community as an effective means to reduce frictional losses, increase waste heat recovery, and improve fuel efficiency while increasing engine power density. However, often is the case that turbocharging strategies, including variable geometry turbochargers, and regulated two-stage turbochargers, incur the performance tradeoff between transient response and fuel economy (pumping losses) at high engine speeds. For off-highway vehicles having particularly transient and high-powered duty cycles, efforts to improve this tradeoff and increase operational flexibility have turned to evaluating various electrified air system architectures. In this study, a 4.5 L diesel-ICE configured with an electrically driven compressor (eBooster ® ) is placed in series with a conventional turbocharger and integrated into a 48 V mild-hybrid powertrain architecture. The objective of this powertrain configuration is to enable engine downsizing by 34%, replacing the current 6.8 L ICE platform with the hybridized 4.5 L ICE concept. The commercial 1-D simulation software GT-SUITE is used for powertrain system development and system optimization. Development and validation of the GT-SUITE model and air system controls is concurrently supported through experimental data collection. The simulation model development includes using machine learning methods for optimizing exhaust gas dilution, injection timing, and eBooster ® power to improve steady-state and transient brake-specific fuel consumption while minimizing criteria pollutant emissions. It was found that total specific fluid consumption over the standardized non-road transient engine duty cycle could be reduced by 18% over the current 6.8 L engine by using an optimized eBoosted 4.5 L engine. The hybridized 4.5 L engine concept concurrently showed sufficient transient response capability and nearly an order of magnitude reduction in duty cycle total soot production.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Technoeconomic evaluation of recent process improvements in production of sugar and high-value lignin co-products via two-stage Cu-catalyzed alkaline-oxidative pretreatment

Abstract Background A lignocellulose-to-biofuel biorefinery process that enables multiple product streams is recognized as a promising strategy to improve the economics of this biorefinery and to accelerate technology commercialization. We recently identified an innovative pretreatment technology that enables of the production of sugars at high yields while simultaneously generating a high-quality lignin stream that has been demonstrated as both a promising renewable polyol replacement for polyurethane applications and is highly susceptible to depolymerization into monomers. This technology comprises a two-stage pretreatment approach that includes an alkaline pre-extraction followed by a metal-catalyzed alkaline-oxidative pretreatment. Our recent work demonstrated that H 2 O 2 and O 2 act synergistically as co-oxidants during the alkaline-oxidative pretreatment and could significantly reduce the pretreatment chemical input while maintaining high sugar yields (~ 95% glucose and ~ 100% xylose of initial sugar composition), high lignin yields (~ 75% of initial lignin), and improvements in lignin usage. Results This study considers the economic impact of these advances and provides strategies that could lead to additional economic improvements for future commercialization. The results of the technoeconomic analysis (TEA) demonstrated that adding O 2 as a co-oxidant at 50 psig for the alkaline-oxidative pretreatment and reducing the raw material input reduced the minimum fuel selling price from $1.08/L to $0.85/L, assuming recoverable lignin is used as a polyol replacement. If additional lignin can be recovered and sold as more valuable monomers, the minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) can be further reduced to $0.73/L. Conclusions The present work demonstrated that high sugar and lignin yields combined with low raw material inputs and increasing the value of lignin could greatly increase the economic viability of a poplar-based biorefinery. Continued research on integrating sugar production with lignin valorization is thus warranted to confirm this economic potential as the technology matures.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simultaneously improving accuracy and computational cost under parametric constraints in materials property prediction tasks

Abstract Modern data mining techniques using machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) algorithms have been shown to excel in the regression-based task of materials property prediction using various materials representations. In an attempt to improve the predictive performance of the deep neural network model, researchers have tried to add more layers as well as develop new architectural components to create sophisticated and deep neural network models that can aid in the training process and improve the predictive ability of the final model. However, usually, these modifications require a lot of computational resources, thereby further increasing the already large model training time, which is often not feasible, thereby limiting usage for most researchers. In this paper, we study and propose a deep neural network framework for regression-based problems comprising of fully connected layers that can work with any numerical vector-based materials representations as model input. We present a novel deep regression neural network, iBRNet, with branched skip connections and multiple schedulers, which can reduce the number of parameters used to construct the model, improve the accuracy, and decrease the training time of the predictive model. We perform the model training using composition-based numerical vectors representing the elemental fractions of the respective materials and compare their performance against other traditional ML and several known DL architectures. Using multiple datasets with varying data sizes for training and testing, We show that the proposed iBRNet models outperform the state-of-the-art ML and DL models for all data sizes. We also show that the branched structure and usage of multiple schedulers lead to fewer parameters and faster model training time with better convergence than other neural networks. Scientific contribution: The combination of multiple callback functions in deep neural networks minimizes training time and maximizes accuracy in a controlled computational environment with parametric constraints for the task of materials property prediction.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Supranutrition of microalgal docosahexaenoic acid and calcidiol improved growth performance, tissue lipid profiles, and tibia characteristics of broiler chickens

Abstract Background Docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) and calcidiol could be enriched in chicken for improving public nutrition and health. It remains unclear if supranutritional levels of DHA and calcidiol impair growth performance or metabolism of broiler chickens. This study was to determine singular and combined effects of high levels of supplemental DHA-rich microalgal biomass or oil and calcidiol on growth performance, concentrations of triglycerides, cholesterol, and nonesterfied fatty acids in plasma, liver, breast, and thigh, and biophysical properties of tibia. Methods In Exp. 1, 144 day-old Cornish chicks were divided into 4 groups (6 cages/treatment, 6 birds/cage), and were fed a corn-soybean meal basal diet (BD), BD + 10,000 IU calcidiol/kg (BD + Cal), BD + 1% DHA-rich Aurantiochytrium (1.2 g DHA/kg; BD + DHA), and BD + Cal + DHA for 6 weeks. In Exp. 2, 180 day-old chicks were divided into 5 groups, and were fed: BD, BD + DHA (0.33% to 0.66% oil, 1.5 to 3.0 g DHA/kg), BD + DHA + EPA (1.9% to 3.8% eicosapentaenoic acid-rich Nannochloropsis sp. CO18, 0.3 to 0.6 g EPA/kg), BD + DHA + calcidiol (6000 to 12,000 IU/kg diet), and BD + DHA + EPA + Cal for 6 weeks. Results Birds fed BD + Cal diet in Exp. 1 and BD + DHA + EPA diet in Exp. 2 had higher ( P < 0.05) body weight gain (10%–11%) and gain:feed ratio (7%), and lower ( P < 0.05) total cholesterol and triglyceride concentrations in plasma (18%–54%), liver (8%–26%), breast (19%–26%), and thigh (10%–19%), respectively, over the controls. The two diets also improved ( P < 0.05) tibial breaking strength (8%–24%), total bone volume (2%–13%), and (or) bone mineral density (3%–19%) of chickens. Conclusion Supranutrition of dietary calcidiol and DHA alone or together did not produce adverse effects, but led to moderate improvements of growth performance, lipid profiles of plasma and muscle, and bone properties of broiler chickens.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data from A Mass Spectrometry-Based High-Throughput Screening Method for Engineering Fatty Acid Synthases with Improved Production of Medium Chain Fatty Acids

Microbial cell factories have been extensively engineered to produce free fatty acids (FFAs) as key components of crucial nutrients, soaps, industrial chemicals, and fuels. However, our ability to control the composition of microbially synthesized FFAs is still limited, particularly, for producing medium‐chain fatty acids (MCFAs). This is mainly due to the lack of high‐throughput approaches for FFA analysis to engineer enzymes with desirable product specificity. Here we report a mass spectrometry (MS)‐based method for rapid profiling of MCFAs in Saccharomyces cerevisiae by using membrane lipids as a proxy. In particular, matrix‐assisted laser desorption/ionization time‐of‐flight (MALDI‐ToF) MS was used to detect shorter acyl chain phosphatidylcholines from membrane lipids and a higher m/z peak ratio at 730 and 758 was used as an indication for improved MCFA production. This colony‐based method can be performed at a rate of ~2 s per sample, representing a substantial improvement over gas chromatography‐MS (typically >30 min per sample) as the gold standard method for FFA detection. To demonstrate the power of this method, we performed site‐saturation mutagenesis of the yeast fatty acid synthase and identified nine missense mutations that resulted in improved MCFA production relative to the wild‐type strain. Colony‐based MALDI‐ToF MS screening provides an effective approach for engineering microbial fatty acid compositions in a high‐throughput manner.

Conversion↗
DOE OSTI2022

Toward higher-radix switches with co-packaged optics for improved network locality in data center and HPC networks [Invited]

In this work, we study the network locality improvements that can be achieved by using co-packaged optics in data center and high-performance computing (HPC) networks. The increased escape bandwidth offered by co-packaged optics can enable switches with speeds of 51.2 Tb/s and beyond. From a network architecture perspective, the key advantages of introducing co-packaged optics at the switch points include the implementation of large-scale topologies of >12,000 end points with 4× higher bisection bandwidth and the reduction of the required number of switches by >40% compared with state-of-the-art approaches. From a network operation perspective, improved network locality and faster operation can be achieved since the higher-radix switches can mitigate the impact of network contention. Placing applications under fewer leaf switches reduces the number of packets that cross the spine switches in a leaf-spine topology. The proposed scheme is evaluated via discrete-event simulations: we initially evaluate the network locality properties of the system by using virtual-machine traces from a production data center, and we subsequently quantify the performance improvements by simulating an all-to-all pattern for a variety of message sizes over a number of nodes. The results suggest that co-packaged optics form a promising solution for keeping up with bandwidth scaling in future networks. The virtual-machine analysis shows that large-scale applications can be placed under up to 50% fewer first-level switches, while the network analysis shows speedups of up to 7.1, which translates to execution time reductions of up to 26% and 42.7% for applications with communication ratios of 0.3 and 0.5, respectively.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Simultaneous contrast improvement and temporal compression using divided-pulse nonlinear compression

We experimentally demonstrate how divided-pulse nonlinear compression can be used to improve the temporal contrast of a laser pulse train while simultaneously temporally compressing the pulses. We measure a contrast improvement of almost four orders of magnitude on a nanosecond time scale and temporally compress the pulses from 1.2 ps to 187 fs. The efficiency of our method is also competitive with other contrast improvement methods, with 72% efficiency measured for the main pulse. We expect the method will be useful in the continuing development of high-power, Yb regenerative amplifiers, which suffer from both significant prepulses and relatively long pulse durations.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Combining biomarker and virus phylogenetic models improves HIV-1 epidemiological source identification

To identify and stop active HIV transmission chains new epidemiological techniques are needed. Here, we describe the development of a multi-biomarker augmentation to phylogenetic inference of the underlying transmission history in a local population. HIV biomarkers are measurable biological quantities that have some relationship to the amount of time someone has been infected with HIV. To train our model, we used five biomarkers based on real data from serological assays, HIV sequence data, and target cell counts in longitudinally followed, untreated patients with known infection times. The biomarkers were modeled with a mixed effects framework to allow for patient specific variation and general trends, and fit to patient data using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Subsequently, the density of the unobserved infection time conditional on observed biomarkers were obtained by integrating out the random effects from the model fit. This probabilistic information about infection times was incorporated into the likelihood function for the transmission history and phylogenetic tree reconstruction, informed by the HIV sequence data. To critically test our methodology, we developed a coalescent-based simulation framework that generates phylogenies and biomarkers given a specific or general transmission history. Testing on many epidemiological scenarios showed that biomarker augmented phylogenetics can reach 90% accuracy under idealized situations. Under realistic within-host HIV-1 evolution, involving substantial within-host diversification and frequent transmission of multiple lineages, the average accuracy was at about 50% in transmission clusters involving 5–50 hosts. Realistic biomarker data added on average 16 percentage points over using the phylogeny alone. Using more biomarkers improved the performance. Shorter temporal spacing between transmission events and increased transmission heterogeneity reduced reconstruction accuracy, but larger clusters were not harder to get right. More sequence data per infected host also improved accuracy. We show that the method is robust to incomplete sampling and that adding biomarkers improves reconstructions of real HIV-1 transmission histories. The technology presented here could allow for better prevention programs by providing data for locally informed and tailored strategies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

An improved dataset for predicting mammal infecting viruses from genetic sequence information

There have been several attempts to develop machine learning (ML) models to identify human infecting viruses from their genomic sequences, with varying degrees of success. Direct comparison between models is problematic, because these models are typically trained and evaluated on different datasets with alternative data splitting schemes, features, and model performance metrics. In this paper we present a standardized dataset of mammal infecting and non-infecting viral pathogens, refined from the previous work of Mollentze et al. to include the latest literature evidence, roughly doubling the number of curated host-virus records available to the community, and new host target labels, primate and mammal. The new host labels were included for several reasons, including previous reports that classification performance is better at broader taxonomic ranks and the idea that there may be more data for primate infection that might serve as a suitable proxy for zoonotic potential and avoidance of false positives for human infection due to absence of evidence. On this dataset, we report the performance of eight machine learning models for predicting mammal-infecting viruses from their genomic sequences. We find that randomly assigning cases in our improved dataset to training/testing sets, when compared to the original assignments into training/testing in Mollentze et al., increases the overall average ROC AUC of prediction of human infection from 0.663 ± 0.070 to 0.784 ± 0.013, consistent with the reduction in phylogenetic distance between train and test sets (relative entropy change from 3.00 to 0.08). The broadest host category of mammal infection can be predicted most reliably at 0.850 ± 0.020. We share our improved dataset and code to enable standardized comparisons of machine learning methods to predict human host infections. Overall, we have presented preliminary evidence that classification of virus host infection is more tractable at higher taxonomic ranks, that unsurprisingly reducing the phylogenetic distance between training and test sets can improve predictive performance, that peptide kmer features appear to be harmful to out of sample model performance, and we are left with the question of whether models for virus host prediction can reasonably be expected to perform well in out of sample scenarios given the likelihood that viruses do not share a common ancestor. Consistent with this concern, when the data is resampled such that there is no overlap between viral families in training and test sets (relative entropy > 24), models perform no better than random chance at prediction of human infection regardless of whether kmers are included (ROC AUC 0.50 ± 0.08) or not (ROC AUC 0.50 ± 0.04).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multi-contrast machine learning improves schistosomiasis diagnostic performance

Schistosomiasis currently affects over 250 million people and remains a public health burden despite ongoing global control efforts. Conventional microscopy is a practical tool for diagnosis and screening ofSchistosoma haematobium, but identification of eggs requires a skilled microscopist. Here we present a machine learning (ML)-based strategy for automated detection ofS. haematobiumthat combines two imaging contrasts, brightfield (BF) and darkfield (DF), to improve diagnostic performance. We collected BF and DF images of urine samples, many of them containingS. haematobiumeggs, during two different field studies in Côte d’Ivoire using a mobile phone-based microscope, the SchistoScope. We then trained separate egg-detection ML models and compared the patient-level performance of BF and DF models alone to combinations of BF and DF models, using annotations from trained microscopists as the gold standard. We found that models trained on DF images, and almost all BF and DF combinations, performed significantly better than models trained on BF images only. When models were trained on images from the first field study (n = 349 patients, 748 images of each contrast), patient-level classification performance on patient images from the second study (n = 375 patients, 752 images of each contrast) met the WHO Diagnostic Target Product Profile (TPP) sensitivity and specificity for the monitoring and evaluation use case (sensitivity for all models and combinations was >75% when evaluated at a confidence score threshold that resulted in specificity >96.5%). When we used images from both field studies for the training set, performance of the models was improved. Overall, this work shows that the use of DF and BF increases the performance of ML models on images from devices with low-cost optics, while retaining the portability, power, and time-to-results of the WHO’s diagnostic TPP. DF requires no additional sample preparation and does not increase the complexity of the imaging system. It thus offers a practical means to improve performance of automated diagnostics forS. haematobiumas well as other microscopy-based diagnostics.

Infectious Diseases↗
DOE OSTI2020

Improving five-year survival prediction via multitask learning across HPV-related cancers

Oncology is a highly siloed field of research in which sub-disciplinary specialization has limited the amount of information shared between researchers of distinct cancer types. This can be attributed to legitimate differences in the physiology and carcinogenesis of cancers affecting distinct anatomical sites. However, underlying processes that are shared across seemingly disparate cancers probably affect prognosis. The objective of the current study is to investigate whether multitask learning improves 5-year survival cancer patient survival prediction by leveraging information across anatomically distinct HPV related cancers. Furthermore, data were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program database. The study cohort consisted of 29,768 primary cancer cases diagnosed in the United States between 2004 and 2015. Ten different cancer diagnoses were selected, all with a known association with HPV risk. In the analysis, the cancer diagnoses were categorized into three distinct topography groups of varying specificity. The most specific topography grouping consisted of 10 original cancer diagnoses differentiated by the first two digits of the ICD-O-3 topography code. The second topography grouping consisted of cancer diagnoses categorized into six distinct organ groups. Finally, the third topography grouping consisted of just two groups, head-neck cancers and ano-genital cancers. The tasks were to predict 5-year survival for patients within the different topography groups using 14 predictive features which were selected among descriptive variables available in the SEER database. The information from the predictive features was shared between tasks in three different ways, resulting in three distinct predictive models: 1) Information was not shared between patients assigned to different tasks (single task learning); 2) Information was shared between all patients, regardless of task (pooled model); 3) Only relevant information was shared between patients grouped to different tasks (multitask learning). Prediction performance was evaluated with Brier scores. All three models were evaluated against one another on each of the three distinct topography-defined tasks. The results showed that multitask classifiers achieved relative improvement for the majority of the scenarios studied compared to single task learning and pooled baseline methods. In this study, we have demonstrated that sharing information among anatomically distinct cancer types can lead to improved predictive survival models.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Feasibility and preliminary efficacy for morning bright light therapy to improve sleep and plasma biomarkers in US Veterans with TBI. A prospective, open-label, single-arm trial

Mild traumatic brain injury (TBI) is associated with persistent sleep-wake dysfunction, including insomnia and circadian rhythm disruption, which can exacerbate functional outcomes including mood, pain, and quality of life. Present therapies to treat sleep-wake disturbances in those with TBI (e.g., cognitive behavioral therapy for insomnia) are limited by marginal efficacy, poor patient acceptability, and/or high patient/provider burden. Thus, this study aimed to assess the feasibility and preliminary efficacy of morning bright light therapy, to improve sleep in Veterans with TBI (NCT03578003). Thirty-three Veterans with history of TBI were prospectively enrolled in a single-arm, open-label intervention using a lightbox (~10,000 lux at the eye) for 60-minutes every morning for 4-weeks. Pre- and post-intervention outcomes included questionnaires related to sleep, mood, TBI, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and pain; wrist actigraphy as a proxy for objective sleep; and blood-based biomarkers related to TBI/sleep. The protocol was rated favorably by ~75% of participants, with adherence to the lightbox and actigraphy being ~87% and 97%, respectively. Post-intervention improvements were observed in self-reported symptoms related to insomnia, mood, and pain; actigraphy-derived measures of sleep; and blood-based biomarkers related to peripheral inflammatory balance. The severity of comorbid PTSD was a significant positive predictor of response to treatment. Morning bright light therapy is a feasible and acceptable intervention that shows preliminary efficacy to treat disrupted sleep in Veterans with TBI. A full-scale randomized, placebo-controlled study with longitudinal follow-up is warranted to assess the efficacy of morning bright light therapy to improve sleep, biomarkers, and other TBI related symptoms.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dataset 3: A National Dataset on Actionable Items in Improving Pooled Rideshare, 2025.

Dataset 3: A National Dataset on Actionable Items in Improving Pooled Rideshare.” 2025. Dataset Description: Pooled Rideshare Acceptance Survey - Phase 3 (2025, N = 8,296). This dataset represents the third and final phase of a national survey aimed at understanding user acceptance and preferences related to pooled rideshare (PR) services in the United States. Building on insights from earlier phases, this phase expands both the sample size and the depth of analysis to support policymaking, transportation planning, and service design for sustainable mobility systems. The Phase 3 survey was administered online to a nationally representative sample of 8,296 U.S. adults. The sample includes a wide range of demographics. The survey retained core questions from previous phases while introducing 77 detailed service features (actionable items) to evaluate potential improvements to PR offerings. Each feature was designed to assess whether a specific improvement, such as enhanced safety measures, real-time ride tracking, or user training would increase participants’ willingness to adopt PR services. In addition, behavioral predictors, current rideshare habits, environmental attitudes, and perceived barriers (e.g., safety, privacy, and comfort) were captured. - Phase_3_Final - The dataset contains rows corresponding to individual respondents and columns representing survey items, demographic characteristics, and response values. The data is available in both .CSV and .SAV formats. - Phase_3_Final_MapFile - Accompanying this dataset is a data dictionary explaining each variable, value range, and coding schema. An .XLSX format of the full survey instrument is included to support interpretation and reuse of the dataset.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Spatiotemporal-Aware Weighting Scheme for Improving Climate Model Ensemble Predictions

Multimodel ensembling has been widely used to improve climate model predictions, and the improvement strongly depends on the ensembling scheme. In this work, we propose a Bayesian neural network (BNN) ensembling method, which combines climate models within a Bayesian model averaging framework, to improve the predictive capability of model ensembles. Our proposed BNN approach calculates spatiotemporally varying model weights and biases by leveraging individual models' simulation skill, calibrates the ensemble prediction against observations by considering observation data uncertainty, and quantifies epistemic uncertainty when extrapolating to new conditions. More importantly, the BNN method provides interpretability about which climate model contributes more to the ensemble prediction at which locations and times. Thus, beyond its predictive capability, the method also brings insights and understanding of the models to guide further model and data development. In this study, we design experiments using an ensemble of CMIP6 climate model simulations to illustrate the BNN ensembling method's capability with respect to prediction accuracy, interpretability, and uncertainty quantification (UQ). We demonstrate that BNN can correctly assign larger weights to the regions and seasons where the individual model fits the observation better. Moreover, its offered interpretability is consistent with our understanding of localized climate model performance. Additionally, BNN shows an increasing uncertainty when the prediction is farther away from the period with constrained data, which appropriately reflects our trustworthiness of the models in the changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗