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NASA NTRS2016

Tropospheric Ozone Change from 1980 to 2010 Dominated by Equatorward Redistribution of Emissions

Ozone is an important air pollutant at the surface, and the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the troposphere. Since 1980, anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors methane, non-methane volatile organic compounds, carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides (NOx) have shifted from developed to developing regions. Emissions have thereby been redistributed equatorwards, where they are expected to have a stronger effect on the tropospheric ozone burden due to greater convection, reaction rates and NOx sensitivity. Here we use a global chemical transport model to simulate changes in tropospheric ozone concentrations from 1980 to 2010, and to separate the influences of changes in the spatial distribution of global anthropogenic emissions of short-lived pollutants, the magnitude of these emissions, and the global atmospheric methane concentration. We estimate that the increase in ozone burden due to the spatial distribution change slightly exceeds the combined influences of the increased emission magnitude and global methane. Emission increases in Southeast, East and South Asia may be most important for the ozone change, supported by an analysis of statistically significant increases in observed ozone above these regions. The spatial distribution of emissions dominates global tropospheric ozone, suggesting that the future ozone burden will be determined mainly by emissions from low latitudes.

Zhang, Yuqiang↗

NASA NTRS2005

Verification and Validation of NASA-Supported Enhancements to Decision Support Tools of PECAD

This section of the evaluation report summarizes the verification and validation (V&V) of recently implemented, NASA-supported enhancements to the decision support tools of the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division (PECAD). The implemented enhancements include operationally tailored Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products and products of the Global Reservoir and Lake Monitor (GRLM). The MODIS products are currently made available through two separate decision support tools: the MODIS Image Gallery and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Database. Both the Global Reservoir and Lake Monitor and MODIS Image Gallery provide near-real-time products through PECAD's CropExplorer. This discussion addresses two areas: 1. Assessments of the standard NASA products on which these enhancements are based. 2. Characterizations of the performance of the new operational products.

Ross, Kenton W.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Systematic Analysis of Drivers and Barriers of Cross-Sectorial Learning Between Nuclear and Oil and Gas Decommissioning Projects - 20139

Project and megaproject management in the energy sector have historically focused on the planning and delivery of the construction of infrastructure. Therefore, policies are predominantly oriented to support the construction of infrastructure rather than its decommissioning. However, globally, several facilities have reached (or will soon reach) their end-of-life and need to be decommissioned. These facilities span across the energy sector, including nuclear power plants and oil and gas rigs, whose decommissioning present unprecedented techno-socio-economic challenges. Moreover, globally, their decommissioning cost is estimated to reach hundreds of billions of US dollars and this budget keeps increasing, with limited knowledge-transfer across industries to mitigate the spiraling increase of this figure. Cross-sectorial knowledge-transfer is a way to tackle this matter and improve the planning and delivery of decommissioning and waste management projects. The aim of this research is to build a road-map based on cross-sectorial industrial experience, designed to promote the sharing of good practices between projects both within and across industries dealing with major decommissioning and waste management challenges. To reach this aim, the tacit knowledge of senior practitioners on several large scale nuclear and oil and gas decommissioning projects is made explicit by the means of semi-structured interviews, systematically analyzed through directed content analysis. The results of this analysis include a list of good practices that could and should be transferred to nuclear decommissioning projects, including the need to promote the adoption of incentives explicitly linked to the project deliverables, and to develop long-term plans to support smooth transition from operations to decommissioning. Suggestions about how the knowledge-transfer can be promoted within and across organizations are also discussed. In this way, this research provides practical guidance for project managers and policymakers on how to support the planning and delivery of projects with improved performance. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

NASA NTRS1998

Refurbishment and Automation of the Thermal/Vacuum Facilities at the Goddard Space Flight Center

The thermal/vacuum facilities located at the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) have supported both manned and unmanned space flight since the 1960s. Of the 11 facilities, currently 10 of the systems are scheduled for refurbishment and/or replacement as part of a 5-year implementation. Expected return on investment includes the reduction in test schedules, improvements in the safety of facility operations, reduction in the complexity of a test and the reduction in personnel support required for a test. Additionally, GSFC will become a global resource renowned for expertise in thermal engineering, mechanical engineering and for the automation of thermal/vacuum facilities and thermal/vacuum tests. Automation of the thermal/vacuum facilities includes the utilization of Programmable Logic Controllers (PLCs) and the use of Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems. These components allow the computer control and automation of mechanical components such as valves and pumps. In some cases, the chamber and chamber shroud require complete replacement while others require only mechanical component retrofit or replacement. The project of refurbishment and automation began in 1996 and has resulted in the computer control of one Facility (Facility #225) and the integration of electronically controlled devices and PLCs within several other facilities. Facility 225 has been successfully controlled by PLC and SCADA for over one year. Insignificant anomalies have occurred and were resolved with minimal impact to testing and operations. The amount of work remaining to be performed will occur over the next four to five years. Fiscal year 1998 includes the complete refurbishment of one facility, computer control of the thermal systems in two facilities, implementation of SCADA and PLC systems to support multiple facilities and the implementation of a Database server to allow efficient test management and data analysis.

Donohue, John T.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Extratropical Cyclogenesis and Frontal Waves on Mars: Influences on Dust, Weather and the Planet's climate

Between late autumn and early spring, middle and high latitudes on Mars exhibit strong equatortopole mean temperature contrasts (i.e., "baroclinicity"). Data collected during the Viking era and observations from both the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) indicate that this strong baroclinicity supports vigorous, large-scale eastward traveling weather systems (i.e., transient synoptic periodwaves) [1,2]. For a rapidly rotating, differentially heated, shallow atmosphere such as on Earth and Mars, these large-scale, extratropical weather disturbances are critical components of the global circulation. The wavelike disturbances act as agents in the transport of heat and momentum between low and high latitudes of the planet. Through cyclonic/anticyclonic winds, intense shear deformations, contractions-dilatations in temperature and density, and sharp perturbations amongst atmospheric tracers (i.e., dust, volatiles (e.g., water vapor) and condensates (e.g., water-ice cloud particles)), Mars extratropical weather systems have significant subsynoptic scale ramifications by supporting atmospheric frontal waves (Fig. 1).

Hollingsworth, J. L.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Global Overview of Energy Storage Performance Test Protocols

As part of the World Bank Energy Storage Partnership, this document seeks to provide support and knowledge to a set of stakeholders across the developing world as we all seek to analyze the emerging opportunities and technologies for energy storage in the electric sector. As global prices for renewable energy have dropped dramatically over the last decade and continue to decline and the value of energy storage has increased in many systems, the World Bank technical teams and others have been hearing of a variety of problems. Related, developing countries have been asking a series of questions in this new area. This working group seeks to address the issues raised in part by creating this document and working to gather a variety of experts in this area from across the globe in support of the World Bank efforts. Performance testing, in combination with test beds (Working Group 2), is critical to fulfill the promise offered by these breakthrough technologies and critical to increasing trust in these systems and reducing risk. This document seeks to provide information to stakeholders in developing countries on the current global performance testing landscape of the battery (and broader) performance testing landscape. This document does that by summarizing testing protocols published by key global entities. From this summary, it can be concluded that there are several organizations within each region that set protocols for the testing and specifications of stationary energy storage systems. Across most of these entities, there are extensive protocols for testing batteries for electrical vehicles and mobile devices, but less for large scale energy storage system and their usage cases. The working group and the Partnership more generally agree that the nascent markets for certain technologies and rapid growth make testing more important than ever as these markets continue to mature. This document also seeks to provide a set of "guideposts" to new entrants by pointing out some of the key organizations globally that are currently engaged in performance testing of energy storage systems (often batteries but the larger organizations are likely to engage in tailored tests for emerging thermal and other storage technologies).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

On the use of air temperature and precipitation as surrogate predictors in soil respiration modelling

Soil respiration (R S ), the soil-to-atmosphere CO 2 flux that is a major component of the global carbon cycle, is strongly influenced by local soil temperature (T soil ) and water content (SWC). Regional to global-scale R S modelling thus requires this information at local scales, but few high-quality, wall-to-wall (global) T soil and SWC data exist. As a result, such modelling efforts commonly use air temperature (T air ) and monthly precipitation (P m ) as surrogate predictors, but their site-scale accuracy and potential bias are unknown. In this report we used monthly data from 880 sites across a wide variety of different environmental conditions (i.e., climate, ecosystem type, elevation, vegetation leaf habit and drainage conditions) to determine the suitability of T air as a surrogate for T soil , and data from 507 sites to examine the suitability of P m as a surrogate for SWC. Site-specific linear and second-order exponential non-linear models were compared using model evaluation metrics (i.e., slope, p-value of slope, root mean square error [RMSE], index of agreement and model efficiency). We found that T soil and T air are highly correlated and explain similar R S variability. In contrast, P m is not a good surrogate for SWC, even though P m explains a similar amount of R S variability to SWC. The wide variability in the site-specific relationships between R S and SWC means that no single relationship can be used for large-scale modelling. The results from this study support the use of T air in continental-to-global scale R S models, and highlight the urgent need for continental-to-global scale SWC datasets for the modelling and evaluation of future soil carbon dynamics under global climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

NWPEsSe: an Adaptive-Learning Global Optimization Algorithm for Nanosized Cluster Systems

Global optimization constitutes an important and fundamental problem in theoretical studies in many chemical fields, such as catalysis, materials or separations problems. In this paper, a novel algorithm has been developed for the global optimization of large systems including neat and ligated clusters in gas phase, and supported clusters in periodic boundary conditions. The method is based on an updated artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm method, that allows for adaptive-learning during the search process. The new algorithm is tested against four classes of systems of diverse chemical nature: gas phase Au_55, ligated Au_8^(2+), Au_8 supported on graphene oxide and defected rutile, and a large cluster assembly ?[Co?_6 Te_8 (PEt_3 )_6][C_60 ]_n, with sizes ranging between 1 to 3 nm and containing up to 1300 atoms. Reliable global minima (GMs) are obtained for all cases, either confirming published data or reporting new lower energy structures. The algorithm and interface to other codes in the form of an independent program, Northwest Potential Energy Search Engine (NWPEsSe), is freely available and it provides a powerful and efficient approach for global optimization of nanosized cluster systems. The work described in this publication was performed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), which is operated by Battelle for the United States Department of Energy (DOE) under Contract DE-AC05-76RL0180. J. Z. and V.-A. G. acknowledge support from DOE, Office of Science, Office of Basic Energy Sci-ences, Chemical, Geological and Biological Sciences Division and computing resources from PNNL’s Research Computing Facility and the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center.

Zhang, Jun↗

DOE OSTI2023

Scaling from Flux Towers to Ecosystem Models: Regional Constraints on Carbon Cycle Processes from Atmospheric Carbonyl Sulfide (Final Report)

DOE supported research suggests that gross primary productivity (GPP) is largely underestimated by global earth system models [Welp et al., 2011], reflecting the persistent challenge in extrapolating from local-scale GPP observations to global-scale earth system models. This poor understanding of GPP at large spatial scales is of particular concern in tropical forests. In tropical forests, some earth systems models forecast a powerful feedback between a warming climate and a decline in GPP resulting in forest dieback. While this simulated feedback is intensely debated, we lack robust large-scale constraints on GPP that are needed to resolve this debate. In particular, carbon dioxide measurements provide valuable information on net carbon flux, but not on the gross flux associated with GPP. Here we conducted a study of regional-to-global scale GPP using atmospheric carbonyl sulfide to provide a new constraint on GPP mechanisms in earth system models. Our project activities integrated modeling, in situ measurement, and remote sensing techniques to resolve GPP for the Amazon as well as global scale trends. The results of this work included initiating airborne carbonyl sulfide monitoring in the Amazon, training for postdocs and graduate students at a Hispanic Serving Institution, fundamental advances in carbonyl sulfide budgets [e.g. Hilton et al., Nature Climate Change, 2017], and high-profile publications that focused on GPP trends for the Amazon [Stinecipher et al., GRL, 2022] and global historical GPP trends [Campbell, et al., Nature, 2017]. Based on the suggestion of our DOE program manager, we published a state-of-the-science commentary to the scientific community on GPP monitoring with COS [Campbell et al., EOS, 2017] which was selected as the cover story. DOE support was acknowledged in all reports. The importance of this research to understanding climate change was communicated to the general public through community seminars (Rotary, Public Libraries, State Parks), an op-ed (SF Chronicle), and interviews in the mass media including two stories in the New York Times (4/5/17; 7/30/18), one of which was especially widely read after it was featured in the New York Time’s Quote of the Day.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Baselining the Indirect Effect by Improving Quantification of Sea Spray and Marine Sources at Ascension Island (Final Report)

Oceans cover two-thirds of the Earth and understanding the interactions of aerosols with clouds in these large marine regions requires quantifying the man-made contributions to the budget of cloud-drop forming particles (known as cloud condensation nuclei, or CCN) relative to the non-manmade “baseline” conditions and understanding the meteorology of boundary layer clouds. Modeling studies have shown substantial uncertainties and sensitivities to natural marine CCN sources, meaning that to reduce uncertainties in indirect effects we must be able to better quantify the CCN budget in ocean regions. While models provide important constraints on these uncertainties, actually reducing uncertainties requires substantial observations in open-ocean and coastal regions in order to establish the baseline on which manmade emissions are added. The tropical South Atlantic Ocean is one of the least-sampled regions of the planet, making the comprehensive measurements of the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds (LASIC) campaign provides the longest record of aerosol size distribution measurements from a differential mobility analyzer in a cloud-influenced marine location in the ARM database, with 17 months of ground-based aerosol size distribution measurements. This project addressed the research topic of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions (ACI) by supporting three publications from the LASIC measurements: 1. The ARM measurements were combined with a new value-added technique that was pioneered by the Russell group for quantifying sea salt. This quantification of sea salt uses supermicron scattering measurements for retrieving reasonable sea spray mass concentrations, providing the best-available, observationally-constrained estimate of the sea spray mode properties when supermicron size distribution measurements are not available. 2. The fitted modes of the distribution were used to investigate the signatures of cloud processing for very clean to very smoky aerosol conditions, revealing not only differences in the particles that activate in clouds but also in the mechanisms that control that droplet formation process. In clean air, the size required to form a cloud droplet is influenced by the number of particles, as well as how quickly particles take up water during growth in cloud. 3. Building on this aerosol characterization, cloud and meteorological conditions were used to evaluate aerosol-related changes in cloud albedo and optical depth. We introduced a new method of decomposing the impact of aerosols on clouds known as the Twomey effect by incorporating retrieved supersaturation from two independent sets of observations to constrain the feedback of aerosol particles on cloud properties. The method quantifies the reduction of the Twomey effect at high aerosol concentrations, which has never been explained quantitatively by observations. In addition, the results provide the first direct validation for the conditions observed in the tropical South Atlantic of a parcel-based approach that is embedded in many climate models. Together these findings illustrate how ARM extended field campaigns in stratocumulus-covered regions can be used to constrain ACI processes with direct observations, providing specific radiative effects without models. By making such process-specific constraints available to improve ACI in global climate models, ARM observations play a key role in supporting model development.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1997

Model Evaluation and Sensitivity Studies for Determining Aircraft Effects on the Global Atmosphere

This project, started in July 1995 and ending in July 1996, related: to evaluation of the possible importance of soot and sulfur dioxide emissions from subsonic and supersonic aircraft; to research contributions and special responsibilities for NASA AEAP assessments of subsonic aircraft and High Speed Civil Transport aircraft; and to science team responsibilities supporting the development of the three-dimensional atmospheric chemistry model of the Global Modeling Initiative.

Wuebbles, Donald J.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Clinical Decision Support - Concepts of Operation

We are entering a new era in space exploration to return to the moon and explore Mars. Crew members operating independently during long duration space exploration missions will require a clinical decision support system (CDSS) to increase autonomy by augmenting their knowledge, skills and abilities in different scenarios. Significant changes to in-flight and habitat medical care due to constraints on mass, volume, power, crew time and medical evacuation capabilities are needed to increase crew autonomy and self-reliance in decision making and task performance. The Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element of the Human Research Program (HRP) pushes the boundary of space medical systems to advance the care of astronauts on future exploration missions beyond low Earth orbit by identifying and testing next-generation medical care and crew health maintenance technologies. Clinical decision support (CDS) presents knowledge and data in a context aware manner to augment a crew members’ knowledge, skills and abilities during the process of observation, orientation, decisions and action. A comprehensive crew health and performance CDSS is required to augment crew capability and will be used in different scenarios for several reasons. In general, the CDSS’s role is to assist the crew in prevention, detection, diagnosis and treatment of crew health and performance related conditions that may arise in exploration spaceflight. For example, CDSS would assist a high acuity scenario such as a heart attack by supplying clear instructions, vital signs and treatment reminders. A lower severity scenario such as kidney stone risk could interface to vehicle systems and display more complex predictive data during a diagnosis. A CDSS needs to contribute to successful missions by maintaining a high performing crew who can potentially exhibit countless medical conditions related to derangements from the space environment (sleep, cognition, nutrition and exercise) as well as conditions intrinsic to humans anywhere. While supporting the crew’s ability to make sound clinical decisions is desirable in any mission, it is essential for exploration missions with significant communication delays, no evacuation capability, and extended exposure to the flight environment. Such missions correspond with medical Level of Care V (LOC V), the highest level specified in NASA-STD-3001. The project focuses on CDS implementation research to derive requirements for LOC V, where the need for increased autonomy results in new practices and the inclusion of non-clinical data, such as vehicle environmental measures and physical exercise results, from other human and vehicle domains and advanced analytics. The CDS project describes how the CDSS is intended to be used by defining concepts of operations (ConOps). The process to derive ConOps focuses on increased autonomy that reduces the likelihood and consequences of accepted medical conditions. These crew health and performance inputs are grouped by common datasets and analysis models. Use cases are derived to research new clinical scenarios, architectural development and workflows. Implementation research is conducted with protypes to inform assumptions and derive requirements. The project also establishes how externally developed analysis and approaches can be added to expand a clinical decision support system and thus highlight how a comprehensive system can be globally developed with collaborators. This presentation will cover example scenarios from the CDS ConOps and the method to derive them. One example scenario will be CDSS alerting an increased kidney stone risk during a mission, with diagnosis and treatment options provided during the intervention.

clinical decision support↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Clinical Decision Support - Concepts of Operation

clinical decision support↗

DOE OSTI2020

Nitrogen derived from Combined Algal Processing supports algae cultivation for biofuels

Algae biomass, a biofuel feedstock with potential to reduce global CO 2 emissions, is currently too expensive Nitrogen, a significant input and life cycle cost, requires research on recycling and additional sources to reduce costs. Integral to nitrogen recycling is the knowledge of actual nitrogen requirements in outdoor ponds, thus data from the Unified Field Studies of the Algae Testbed Public-Private Partnership was analyzed. The data showed that Nannochloropsis oceanica used 14–24 mg/L NH 4 + per harvest cycle for robust growth. Nitrogen recycled directly from the algae conversion process will likely be the primary source of nitrogen for algae cultivation. Harvested algae can be fractionated via Combined Algal Processing (CAP), where algae are pretreated, fermented, and the fuel feedstocks (e. g. ethanol, lipids) are removed leaving a nitrogen rich slurry. Chlorella vulgaris grew robustly in nitrogen-free media supplemented with CAP residues through 4 harvest cycles with no inhibition. The amount of nitrogen as free ammonium available for recycling directly without further processing was insufficient (~4% of total needed), thus the nitrogen fixing bacteria, Azotobacter vinelandii, was investigated as a means for increasing ammonium concentration in CAP residues. This organism was shown to be proficient at growth on sugars liberated from algae biomass during pretreatment and sustained algae growth using A. vinelandii supernatants was also demonstrated. Using Azotobacter to increase ammonium concentrations on-site using an inexpensive biological process to generate the necessary ammonium for outdoor algae cultivation improves sustainability of algae biofuels by avoiding the energy intensive steps of typical ammonium production and transport. Furthermore, these results show that byproducts of algae conversion begin to close nitrogen demand and, with further supplementation by diazotrophic bacteria or protein hydrolysis, may completely replace current energyintensive and costly industrial nitrogen sources offering a path to increased economic feasibility and improved life cycle analysis of algae-based biofuels.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

NASA NTRS2013

Earth Observations for Global Water Security

The combined effects of population growth, increasing demands for water to support agriculture, energy security, and industrial expansion, and the challenges of climate change give rise to an urgent need to carefully monitor and assess trends and variations in water resources. Doing so will ensure that sustainable access to adequate quantities of safe and useable water will serve as a foundation for water security. Both satellite and in situ observations combined with data assimilation and models are needed for effective, integrated monitoring of the water cycle's trends and variability in terms of both quantity and quality. On the basis of a review of existing observational systems, we argue that a new integrated monitoring capability for water security purposes is urgently needed. Furthermore, the components for this capability exist and could be integrated through the cooperation of national observational programmes. The Group on Earth Observations should play a central role in the design, implementation, management and analysis of this system and its products.

Earth↗

NASA NTRS2015

Phased Antenna Array for Global Navigation Satellite System Signals

Systems and methods for phased array antennas are described. Supports for phased array antennas can be constructed by 3D printing. The array elements and combiner network can be constructed by conducting wire. Different parameters of the antenna, like the gain and directivity, can be controlled by selection of the appropriate design, and by electrical steering. Phased array antennas may be used for radio occultation measurements.

Turbiner, Dmitry↗

NASA NTRS2002

Forecasting Coronal Mass Ejections from Vector Magnetograms

Identification of active regions from which Earthward halo Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are likely to originate is important both for understanding how CMEs are produced and for prediction of hazardous space weather. In previous work, from a set of 17 MSFC (Marshall Space Flight Center) vector magnetograms of 12 bipolar active regions situated within +/- 2 days of rotation from central meridian, we have evaluated four different measures of the global nonpotentiality of the magnetic field of each active region, and have found that the nonpotentiality of these active regions is strongly correlated with their CME productivity during the time interval of +/- 2 days centered on the day of the magnetogram: strongly nonpotential bipolar active regions are much more likely to produce a CME during this interval that are weakly nonpotential bipolar active regions. To further establish the use of active-region nonpotentiality for forecasting CMEs, we have expanded the sample to 19 additional bipolar active regions, with vector magnetograms taken with the upgraded MSFC vector magnetograph from September 2000 through June 2001 with support from our LWS grant (M. J. Hagyard, PI). The four global measures of nonpotentiality are the length of strong-shear, strong-field main neutral line, the net current, and two other measures of the overall twist in the magnetic field of the active-region bipole. We find: 1) The statistical significance of the correlation of the nonpotentiality of active regions with their CME productivity within +/- 2 days of the day of the magnetogram is greater than 99%. 2) 67% of the strongly nonpotential active regions produced CMEs within the +/- 2 day window, while only 17% of the weakly nonpotential ones did. 3) The statistical significance of the correlation of the nonpotentiality of active regions with their CME productivity during 0-2 days after the day of the magnetogram is about 97%. 4) 42% of the strongly nonpotential active regions produced CMEs within the 0-2 day window, while only 10% of the weakly nonpotential ones did. 5) The four different measures of an active region's nonpotentiality agree most of the time in their classification of the nonpotentiality as strong or weak (75%-90% depending on the pair of measurements). Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Moore, R. L.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Improving sustainable tropical forest management with voluntary carbon markets

Due to a rapidly changing climate, voluntary carbon markets are gaining momentum and should be leveraged to improve and expand tropical sustainable forest management plans, limiting carbon emissions and enhancing critical carbon sinks. By sequestering more carbon than any other terrestrial ecosystem — ~1 Pg C yr –1 — tropical forests provide crucial natural climate solutions and opportunities in the evolving voluntary carbon market. Here, we argue that some issues with the current sustainable management of tropical forests can be addressed using carbon-focused sustainable forest management (SFM + C) to leverage financial resources for tropical forest carbon storage and sequestration. We suggest an extended harvest cycle in SFM + C and calculate an associated potential increase in aboveground carbon stocks of commercial timber of 1.26 Mg C ha –1 after each cycle in the Brazilian Amazon. The additional carbon storage due to a longer harvest cycle can generate carbon credits worth 152.6 (SD 9.2) US dollars per hectare in 40 years. Considering an average cost of 180 BRL per m3 of commercial timber delivered to the sawmill, an SFM + C plan with a 40-year cycle could generate 28.7% (SD 2.5) more profit than 35-year cycles by combining timber and carbon revenues. A robust carbon price could incentivize the further extension of harvest cycles, providing a monetary return that offsets the opportunity cost intrinsic to harvesting under longer cycles. Lastly, we highlight research needs to support tropical SFM + C, which can be part of a global collective effort to limit global warming to below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗