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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

The Pristine survey – XVI. The metallicity of 26 stellar streams around the Milky Way detected with the STREAMFINDER in Gaia EDR3

ABSTRACT We use the photometric metallicities provided by the panoramic Pristine survey to study the veracity and derive the metallicities of the numerous stellar streams found by the application of the STREAMFINDER algorithm to the Gaia Early Data Release 3 data. All 26 streams present in Pristine show a clear metallicity distribution function, which provides an independent check of the reality of these structures, supporting the reliability of STREAMFINDER in finding streams and the power of Pristine to measure precise metallicities. We further present six candidate structures with coherent phase-space and metallicity signals that are very likely streams. The majority of studied streams are very metal-poor (14 structures with [Fe/H] < −2.0) and include three systems with [Fe/H] < −2.9 (C-11, C-19, and C-20). These streams could be the closest debris of low-luminosity dwarf galaxies or may have originated from globular clusters of significantly lower metallicity than any known current Milky Way globular cluster. Our study shows that the promise of the Gaia data for Galactic Archeology studies can be substantially strengthened by quality photometric metallicities, allowing us to peer back into the earliest epochs of the formation of our Galaxy and its stellar halo constituents.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Overview of the Instrumentation for the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument

Abstract The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) embarked on an ambitious 5 yr survey in 2021 May to explore the nature of dark energy with spectroscopic measurements of 40 million galaxies and quasars. DESI will determine precise redshifts and employ the baryon acoustic oscillation method to measure distances from the nearby universe to beyond redshift z > 3.5, and employ redshift space distortions to measure the growth of structure and probe potential modifications to general relativity. We describe the significant instrumentation we developed to conduct the DESI survey. This includes: a wide-field, 3.°2 diameter prime-focus corrector; a focal plane system with 5020 fiber positioners on the 0.812 m diameter, aspheric focal surface; 10 continuous, high-efficiency fiber cable bundles that connect the focal plane to the spectrographs; and 10 identical spectrographs. Each spectrograph employs a pair of dichroics to split the light into three channels that together record the light from 360–980 nm with a spectral resolution that ranges from 2000–5000. We describe the science requirements, their connection to the technical requirements, the management of the project, and interfaces between subsystems. DESI was installed at the 4 m Mayall Telescope at Kitt Peak National Observatory and has achieved all of its performance goals. Some performance highlights include an rms positioner accuracy of better than 0.″1 and a median signal-to-noise ratio of 7 of the [O ii ] doublet at 8 × 10 −17 erg s −1 cm −2 in 1000 s for galaxies at z = 1.4–1.6. We conclude with additional highlights from the on-sky validation and commissioning, key successes, and lessons learned.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cross Correlating the Unresolved Gamma-Ray Background with Cosmic Large-Scale Structure from DESI: Implications for Astrophysics and Dark Matter

The unresolved gamma-ray background (UGRB) is a diffuse gamma-ray emission arising from numerous extragalactic sources below the detection threshold and is an important component of the gamma-ray sky. Studying the UGRB is crucial for understanding high-energy astrophysical processes in the universe and for probing fundamental physics, such as the nature of dark matter. In this work, we forecast the cross-correlation between the UGRB and galaxy catalogs from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey. First, we study the expected astrophysical contributions to the UGRB and their cross-correlation with DESI spectroscopic galaxies. Our calculations show that the cross-correlation signal-to-noise ratio is expected to be significant, with the highest value predicted to be 20.6 for DESI luminous red galaxies due to a higher predicted overlap in the redshift distribution with the UGRB. We consider two science cases that the UGRB-spectroscopic galaxies cross-correlation can be applied to: 1) measuring the UGRB flux as a function of redshift, achieving a precision of 10% in some redshift bins, and 2) searching for annihilating dark matter potentially up to a mass of about 300~GeV, three times higher than the currently strongest constraints. This work underscores the importance of cross correlating the UGRB with cosmic large-scale structure tracers and highlights the multiwavelength approaches to advancing our understanding of high-energy astrophysical phenomena and fundamental physics.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Discovery of Extended Tidal Tails around the Globular Cluster Palomar 13

We use photometry from the DECam Legacy Survey to detect candidate tidal tails extending ~5° on either side of the Palomar 13 globular cluster. The tails are aligned with the proper motion of Palomar 13 and are consistent with its old, metal-poor stellar population. We identify three RR Lyrae stars (RRLs) that are plausibly associated with the tails, in addition to four previously known in the cluster. From these RRLs, we find that the mean distance to the cluster and tails is 23.6 ± 0.2 kpc and estimate the total (initial) luminosity of the cluster to be , consistent with previous claims that its initial luminosity was higher than its current luminosity. Combined with previously determined proper motion and radial velocity measurements of the cluster, we find that Palomar 13 is on a highly eccentric orbit (e ~ 0.8) with a pericenter of ~9 kpc and an apocenter of ~69 kpc, and a recent pericentric passage of the cluster ~75 Myr ago. We note a prominent linear structure in the interstellar dust map that runs parallel to the candidate tidal features, but conclude that reddening due to dust is unlikely to account for the structure that we observe. If confirmed, the Palomar 13 stellar stream would be one of very few streams with a known progenitor system, making it uniquely powerful for studying the disruption of globular clusters, the formation of the stellar halo, and the distribution of matter within our Galaxy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

The occurrence and impact of carbon-oxygen shell mergers in massive stars

In their final stages before undergoing a core-collapse supernova, massive stars may experience mergers between internal shells where carbon (C) and oxygen (O) are consumed as fuels for nuclear burning. This interaction, known as a C-O shell merger, can dramatically alter the internal structure of the star, leading to peculiar nucleosynthesis and potentially influencing the supernova explosion and the propagation of the subsequent supernova shock. Our understanding of the frequency and consequences of C-O shell mergers remains limited. This study aims to identify, for the first time, early diagnostics in the stellar structure that lead to C-O shell mergers in more advanced stages. We also assess their role in shaping the chemical abundances in the most metal poor stars of the Galaxy. We analyzed a set of 209 stellar evolution models available in the literature, with different initial progenitor masses and metallicities. We then compared the nucleosynthetic yields from a subset of these models with the abundances of odd-Z elements in metal-poor stars. We find that the occurrence of C-O shell mergers in stellar models can be predicted with a good approximation based on the outcomes of the central He burning phase, specifically, from the CO core mass (M CO ) and the 12 C central mass fraction (X C12 ): 90% of models with a C-O merger have X C12 <0.277 and M CO <4.90 M ⊙ , with average values of M CO = 4.02 M ⊙ and X C12 = 0.176. The quantities X C12 and M CO are indirectly affected from several stellar properties, including the initial stellar mass and metallicity. Additionally, we confirm that the Sc-rich and K-rich yields from models with C-O mergers would solve the long-standing underproduction of these elements in massive stars. Our results emphasize the crucial role of C-O shell mergers in enriching the interstellar medium, particularly in the production of odd-Z elements. This highlights the necessity of further investigations to refine their influence on presupernova stellar properties and their broader impact on Galactic chemical evolution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Perturbation theory models for LSST-era galaxy clustering: Tests with subpercent mock catalog measurements in Fourier and configuration space

Here, we analyze the clustering of galaxies using the z = 1.006 snapshot of the CosmoDC2 simulation, a high-fidelity synthetic galaxy catalog designed to validate analysis methods for the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). We present sub-percent measurements of the galaxy auto-correlation and galaxy-dark matter cross correlations in Fourier space and configuration space for a magnitude-limited galaxy sample. At these levels of precision, the statistical errors of the measurement are comparable to the systematic effects present in the simulation and measurement procedure; nevertheless, using a hybrid-PT model, we are able to model non-linear galaxy bias with 0.5% precision up to scales of k max = 0.5 h/Mpc and r min = 4 Mpc/h. While the linear bias parameter is measured with 0.01% precision, other bias parameters are determined with considerably weaker constraints and sometimes bimodal posterior distributions. We compare our fiducial model with lower dimensional models where the higher-order bias parameters are fixed at their co-evolution values and find that leaving these parameters free provides significant improvements in our ability to model small scale information. We also compare bias parameters for galaxy samples defined using different magnitude bands and find agreement between samples containing equal numbers of galaxies. Finally, we compare bias parameters between Fourier space and configuration space and find moderate to significant tension between the two approaches. Although our model is often unable to fit the CosmoDC2 galaxy samples within the 0.1% precision of our measurements, our results suggest that the hybrid-PT model used in this analysis is capable of modeling non-linear galaxy bias within the percent level precision needed for upcoming galaxy surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Distance Estimate Method for Asymptotic Giant Branch Stars Using Infrared Spectral Energy Distributions

We present a method to estimate distances to asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars in the Galaxy, using spectral energy distributions (SEDs) in the near- and mid-infrared. By assuming that a given set of source properties (initial mass, stellar temperature, composition, and evolutionary stage) will provide a typical SED shape and brightness, sources are color matched to a distance-calibrated template and thereafter scaled to extract the distance. The method is tested by comparing the distances obtained to those estimated from very long baseline interferometry or Gaia parallax measurements, yielding a strong correlation in both cases. Additional templates are formed by constructing a source sample likely to be close to the Galactic center, and thus with a common, typical distance for calibration of the templates. These first results provide statistical distance estimates to a set of almost 15,000 Milky Way AGB stars belonging to the Bulge Asymmetries and Dynamical Evolution (BAaDE) survey, with typical distance errors of ±35%. With these statistical distances, a map of the intermediate-age population of stars traced by AGBs is formed, and a clear bar structure can be discerned, consistent with the previously reported inclination angle of 30° to the GC–Sun direction vector. These results motivate deeper studies of the AGB population to tease out the intermediate-age stellar distribution throughout the Galaxy, as well as determining statistical properties of the AGB population luminosity and mass-loss-rate distributions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

DESI Early Data Release Milky Way Survey value-added catalogue

We present the stellar value-added catalogue based on the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Early Data Release. The catalogue contains radial velocity and stellar parameter measurements for $\simeq$ 400 000 unique stars observed during commissioning and survey validation by DESI. These observations were made under conditions similar to the Milky Way Survey (MWS) currently carried out by DESI but also include multiple specially targeted fields, such as those containing well-studied dwarf galaxies and stellar streams. The majority of observed stars have $16\lt r\lt 20$ with a median signal-to-noise ratio in the spectra of $\sim$ 20. In the paper, we describe the structure of the catalogue, give an overview of different target classes observed, as well as provide recipes for selecting clean stellar samples. We validate the catalogue using external high-resolution measurements and show that radial velocities, surface gravities, and iron abundances determined by DESI are accurate to 1 km s −1 , 0.3 dex, and $\sim$ 0.15 dex respectively. We also demonstrate possible uses of the catalogue for chemo-dynamical studies of the Milky Way stellar halo and Draco dwarf spheroidal. The value-added catalogue described in this paper is the very first DESI MWS catalogue. The next DESI data release, expected in less than a year, will add the data from the first year of DESI survey operations and will contain approximately 4 million stars, along with significant processing improvements.

Galaxy: general↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dark matter substructure or source model systematics? A case study of cluster lens Abell S1063

Mapping the small-scale structure of the universe through gravitational lensing is a promising tool for probing the particle nature of dark matter. Curved Arc Basis (CAB) has been proposed as a local lensing formalism in galaxy clusters, with the potential to detect low-mass dark matter substructure. In this work, we analyse the cluster lens Abell S1063 in search of dark matter substructure with the CAB formalism, using multiband imaging data from James Webb Space Telescope ( JWST ). We use two different source modelling methods: shapelets and pixel-based source reconstruction based on Delaunay triangulation. We find that source modelling systematics from shapelets result in a disagreement between CAB parameters measured from different filters. Source modelling with Delaunay significantly alleviates this systematic, as seen in the improvement in agreement across filters. We also find that inadequate complexity in source modelling can result in convincing spurious detections of dark matter substructure from strong gravitational lenses, as seen by our $\Delta \text{BIC} > 20$ measurement of a $M \sim 10^{10}$ ${\rm M}_{\odot }$ subhalo with shapelets, a spurious detection that is not reproduced with Delaunay source modelling. We demonstrate that multiband analysis with different JWST filters is key for disentangling source and lens model systematics from dark matter substructure detections.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

SPT clusters with DES and HST weak lensing. II. Cosmological constraints from the abundance of massive halos

We present cosmological constraints from the abundance of galaxy clusters selected via the thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich (SZ) effect in South Pole Telescope (SPT) data with a simultaneous mass calibration using weak gravitational lensing data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) and the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). The cluster sample is constructed from the combined SPT-SZ, SPTpol ECS, and SPTpol 500d surveys, and comprises 1,005 confirmed clusters in the redshift range 0.25–1.78 over a total sky area of 5200 deg 2 . We use DES Year 3 weak-lensing data for 688 clusters with redshifts 𝑧 < 0.95 and HST weak-lensing data for 39 clusters with 0.6 < 𝑧 < 1.7. The weak-lensing measurements enable robust mass measurements of sample clusters and allow us to empirically constrain the SZ observable-mass relation without having to make strong assumptions about, e.g., the hydrodynamical state of the clusters. For a flat Λ⁢ CDM cosmology, and marginalizing over the sum of massive neutrinos, we measure Ω m = 0.286 ± 0.032, 𝜎 8 = 0.817 ± 0.026, and the parameter combination 𝜎 8 ⁢(Ω m /0.3) 0.25 = 0.805 ± 0.016. Our measurement of 𝑆 8 ≡ 𝜎 8 ⁢$\sqrt{Ω_{m}/0.3}$ = 0.795 ± 0.029 and the constraint from Planck CMB anisotropies (2018 TT, TE, EE+lowE) differ by 1.1⁢𝜎. In combination with that Planck dataset, we place a 95% upper limit on the sum of neutrino masses ∑𝑚 𝜈 < 0.18 eV. When additionally allowing the dark energy equation of state parameter 𝑤 to vary, we obtain 𝑤 = −1.45 ± 0.31 from our cluster-based analysis. In combination with Planck data, we measure 𝑤 =−1.3⁢4$^{+0.22}_{−0.15}$, or a 2.2⁢𝜎 difference with a cosmological constant. We use the cluster abundance to measure 𝜎8 in five redshift bins between 0.25 and 1.8, and we find the results to be consistent with structure growth as predicted by the Λ⁢ CDM model fit to Planck primary CMB data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Signatures of Light Massive Relics on non-linear structure formation

ABSTRACT Cosmologies with Light Massive Relics (LiMRs) as a subdominant component of the dark sector are well-motivated from a particle physics perspective, and can also have implications for the σ8 tension between early and late time probes of clustering. The effects of LiMRs on the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and structure formation on large (linear) scales have been investigated extensively. In this paper, we initiate a systematic study of the effects of LiMRs on smaller, non-linear scales using cosmological N-body simulations; focusing on quantities relevant for photometric galaxy surveys. For most of our study, we use a particular model of non-thermal LiMRs but the methods developed generalizing to a large class of LiMR models – we explicitly demonstrate this by considering the Dodelson–Widrow velocity distribution. We find that, in general, the effects of LiMR on small scales are distinct from those of a ΛCDM universe, even when the value of σ8 is matched between the models. We show that weak lensing measurements around massive clusters, between ∼0.1 h−1Mpc and ∼10 h−1Mpc, should have sufficient signal-to-noise in future surveys to distinguish between ΛCDM and LiMR models that are tuned to fit both CMB data and linear scale clustering data at late times. Furthermore, we find that different LiMR cosmologies indistinguishable by conventional linear probes can be distinguished by non-linear probes if their velocity distributions are sufficiently different. LiMR models can, therefore, be best tested by jointly analyzing the CMB and late-time structure formation on both large and small scales.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhanced early galaxy formation in JWST from axion dark matter?

We demonstrate that enhanced early galaxy formation can generically arise in axion-like particle (ALP) dark matter (DM) models with a delayed onset of axion field oscillation. In these models, the formation of localized massive objects enhances structure formation, potentially addressing the excess recently observed by the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), while remaining consistent with existing constraints. We identify viable parameter space with the ALP mass in the range of 10 −22 eV m a < 10 –19 eV. In addition, we show that the ALP parameter regions of interest can lead to intriguing complementary signatures in the small scale structure of DM halos and existing experimental searches for ALPs.

Bird, Simeon↗
DOE OSTI2025

Generalized framework for likelihood-based field-level inference of growth rate from velocity and density fields

Measuring the growth rate of large-scale structures ( f ) as a function of redshift has the potential to break degeneracies between modified gravity and dark energy models, when combined with expansion-rate probes. Direct estimates of peculiar velocities of galaxies have attracted interest as a means of estimating fσ 8 . In particular, field-level methods can be used to fit the field nuisance parameter along with cosmological parameters simultaneously. This article aims to provide the community with a unified framework for the theoretical modeling of the likelihood-based field-level inference by performing fast field covariance calculations for velocity and density fields. Our purpose is to lay the foundations for a nonlinear extension of the likelihood-based method at the field level. We have developed a generalized framework, implemented in the dedicated software flip to perform a likelihood-based inference of fσ 8 . We derived a new field covariance model, which includes wide-angle corrections. We also included the models previously described in the literature inside our framework. We compared their performance against ours, and we validated our model by comparing it with the two-point statistics of a recent N-body simulation. The tests we performed have allowed us to validate our software and determine the appropriate wavenumber range to integrate our covariance model and its validity in terms of separation. Our framework allows for a wider wavenumber coverage to be used in our calculations than in previous works, which is particularly interesting for nonlinear model extensions. Finally, our generalized framework allows us to efficiently perform a survey geometry-dependent Fisher forecast of the fσ 8 parameter. We show that the Fisher forecast method we developed gives an error bar that is 30% closer to a full likelihood-based estimation than a standard volume Fisher forecast.

Ravoux, Corentin↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Lyman- α forest from LBGs: First 3D correlation measurement with DESI and prospects for cosmology

The Lyman-α (Lyα) forest is a key tracer of large-scale structure at redshifts z > 2, traditionally studied using the spectra of luminous but relatively rare quasars. In this work, we explore the viability of using the fainter yet significantly more abundant Lyman Break Galaxies (LBGs) as alternative background sources for Lyα forest studies. We analyze 4,151 Lyα forest skewers extracted from LBG spectra obtained in the DESI pilot surveys conducted in the COSMOS and XMM-LSS fields. From this dataset, we present the first measurement of the Lyα forest auto-correlation function derived exclusively from LBG spectra, probing comoving separations up to 48 h -1 Mpc at an effective redshift of z eff = 2.70. The measured LBG Lyα forest auto-correlation is consistent with that derived from DESI DR2 quasar Lyα forest spectra at a comparable redshift, validating the use of LBGs as reliable background sources for Lyα forest analyses. In addition, we measure the cross-correlation between the LBG Lyα forest and the positions of 13,362 galaxies, demonstrating that this observable serves as a sensitive diagnostic for assessing the precision and accuracy of galaxy redshift estimates, and for identifying and correcting systematic offsets. Finally, using both synthetic LBG spectra and Fisher matrix forecasts, we show that a future wide-area survey covering ∼5,000 deg 2 , targeting 1,000 LBGs per square degree at signal-to-noise levels comparable to our sample, could enable LBG-based Lyα forest baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements with expected uncertainties of σ α ISO = 0.4% (isotropic) and σ α AP = 1.3% (Alcock-Paczynski). This performance is further enhanced when combining the BAO analysis with a Lyα forest Full Shape (FS) approach, yielding a predicted uncertainty of σ α ISO FS = 0.6%. These results open a new avenue for precision cosmology at high redshift using the Lyα forest in dense LBG samples.

Lyman alpha forest↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Variability of the Black Hole Image in M87 at the Dynamical Timescale

The black hole images obtained with the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) are expected to be variable at the dynamical timescale near their horizons. For the black hole at the center of the M87 galaxy, this timescale (5–61 days) is comparable to the 6 day extent of the 2017 EHT observations. Closure phases along baseline triangles are robust interferometric observables that are sensitive to the expected structural changes of the images but are free of station-based atmospheric and instrumental errors. We explored the day-to-day variability in closure-phase measurements on all six linearly independent nontrivial baseline triangles that can be formed from the 2017 observations. We showed that three triangles exhibit very low day-to-day variability, with a dispersion of ∼3°–5°. The only triangles that exhibit substantially higher variability (∼90°–180°) are the ones with baselines that cross the visibility amplitude minima on the u–v plane, as expected from theoretical modeling. We used two sets of general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations to explore the dependence of the predicted variability on various black hole and accretion-flow parameters. We found that changing the magnetic field configuration, electron temperature model, or black hole spin has a marginal effect on the model consistency with the observed level of variability. On the other hand, the most discriminating image characteristic of models is the fractional width of the bright ring of emission. Models that best reproduce the observed small level of variability are characterized by thin ring-like images with structures dominated by gravitational lensing effects and thus least affected by turbulence in the accreting plasmas.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spurious Correlations between Galaxies and Multiepoch Image Stacks in the DESI Legacy Surveys

A nonnegligible source of systematic bias in cosmological analyses of galaxy surveys is the on-sky modulation that is caused by foregrounds and variable image characteristics, such as observing conditions. Standard mitigation techniques perform a regression between the observed galaxy density field and sky maps of the potential contaminants. Such maps are ad hoc lossy summaries of the heterogeneous sets of coadded exposures that contribute to the survey. We present a methodology for addressing this limitation, and we extract spurious correlations between the observed distributions of galaxies and arbitrary stacks of single-epoch exposures. We study four types of galaxies (luminous red galaxies, emission-line galaxies, quasars, and Lyman-break galaxies) in the three regions of the DESI Legacy Surveys (North, South, and Dark Energy Survey), resulting in 12 samples with varying levels and types of contamination. We find that the new technique outperforms the traditional ones in all cases, and is able to remove higher levels of contamination. This paves the way for new methods that extract more information from multiepoch galaxy survey data and mitigate large-scale biases more effectively.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Large–scale asymmetry in galaxy spin directions: Analysis of galaxies with spectra in DES, SDSS, and DESI Legacy Survey

Multiple previous studies using several different probes have shown considerable evidence for the existence of cosmological–scale anisotropy and a Hubble–scale axis. One of the probes that show such evidence is the distribution of the directions toward which galaxies spin. The advantage of the analysis of the distribution of galaxy spin directions compared to the cosmic microwave background anisotropy is that the ratio of galaxy spin directions is a relative measurement, and therefore less sensitive to background contamination such as Milky Way obstruction. Another advantage is that many spiral galaxies have spectra, and therefore allow to analyze the location of such axis relative to Earth. This paper shows an analysis of the distribution of the spin directions of over 90K galaxies with spectra. That analysis is also compared to previous analyses using the Earth–based Sloan Digital Sky Survey, Panoramic Survey Telescope and Rapid Response System, and Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Legacy Survey, as well as space–based data collected by Hubble Space Telescope. Finally, the results show very good agreement between the distribution patterns observed with the different telescopes. The dipole or quadrupole axes formed by the spin directions of the galaxies with spectra do not necessarily go directly through Earth.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Decoding the age–chemical structure of the Milky Way disc: an application of copulas and elicitable maps

In the Milky Way, the distribution of stars in the [α/Fe] versus [Fe/H] and [Fe/H] versus age planes holds essential information about the history of star formation, accretion, and dynamical evolution of the Galactic disc. We investigate these planes by applying novel statistical methods called copulas and elicitable maps to the ages and abundances of red giants in the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment survey. We find that the high- and low-α disc stars have a clean separation in copula space and use this to provide an automated separation of the α sequences using a purely statistical approach. This separation reveals that the high-α disc ends at the same [α/Fe] and age at high [Fe/H] as the low-[Fe/H] start of the low-α disc, thus supporting a sequential formation scenario for the high- and low-α discs. We then combine copulas with elicitable maps to precisely obtain the correlation between stellar age τ and metallicity [Fe/H] conditional on Galactocentric radius R and height z in the range 0 < R < 20 kpc and |z| < 2 kpc. The resulting trends in the age–metallicity correlation with radius, height, and [α/Fe] demonstrate a ≈0 correlation wherever kinematically cold orbits dominate, while the naively expected negative correlation is present where kinematically hot orbits dominate. This is consistent with the effects of spiral-driven radial migration, which must be strong enough to completely flatten the age–metallicity structure of the low-α disc.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗