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At least 667 records · Page 37

Hybrid Powered Command Trailers Cost-Benefit Analysis Tool: User Guide and Examples

U.S. Forest Service (USFS) wildfire base camps use portable power for electrical needs, including yurts and trailers from which logistics staff work during the incident. These yurts and trailers are conventionally powered by portable diesel generators. Hybrid portable power systems consisting of a combination of solar photovoltaics (PV), battery energy storage systems (BESS), and/or backup diesel generators have been used in recent years and were piloted by the National Technology and Development Program (NTDP) on incidents in fall 2024 as part of NTDP's Portable Power Project. As part of that project, this work included the development of two Excel-based tools and two reports explaining the tools. The first tool, the Incident Energy Systems Model, is an Excel-based tool that models the power output of hybrid portable power systems powering yurts and/or trailers at fire camps over a typical day. The associated report (published separately) outlines a user guide for the model and walks through two scenarios. The two scenarios are 1) trailers powered by rooftop solar PV, batteries, and a back-up diesel generator, and 2) trailers powered by ground mount solar PV, batteries, and a back-up diesel generator. The second tool is a high-level cost-benefit analysis of the same two types of portable power systems, and is location independent.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Half-ice, half-fire-driven ultranarrow phase crossover in one-dimensional decorated 𝑞-state Potts ferrimagnets: An AI-co-led exploration

OpenAI’s reasoning model o3-mini-high was used to carry out an exact analytic study of one-dimensional ferrimagnetic site- and bond-decorated 𝑞-state Potts models. We demonstrate that the finite-temperature ultranarrow phase crossover (UNPC), driven by a hidden “half-ice, half-fire” state recently discovered in the 𝑞=2 case (Ising model), persists for 𝑞>2. Moreover, we identify unique features for 𝑞>2, including the dome structure in the field-temperature phase diagram, and for large 𝑞 a secondary high-temperature UNPC to the fully disordered paramagnetic state. As the UNPC quickly approaches a genuine transition by enhancing 𝐽, the interaction between the backbone spins, two distinct behaviors emerge: In the site-decorated Potts model, 𝑇 0 is independent of 𝐽 and thus remains unchanged (Type-I UNPC), and in the bond-decorated Potts model with 𝑞>2, 𝑇 0 depends on 𝐽 and quickly shifts toward a finite temperature as 𝐽 increases (Type-II UNPC). These results establish a versatile framework for engineering controlled fast state-flipping switches in low-dimensional systems. Our nine-dan artificial intelligence (AI)-contribution framework assigns AI the meritorious status of AI-co-led discovery in this work.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Low-Carbon District Heating: Performance Modeling of Hybrid Solar, Heat Pump, and Thermal Storage Systems for District Thermal Energy in the United States

District heating requires thermal energy in the temperature range of 40 degrees C - 120 degrees C. Typically, the thermal energy input for these systems has largely been met through fossil energy. However, the temperature range is low enough that it presents an opportunity for low-carbon technologies such as solar thermal and electrified thermal generators like heat pumps to decarbonize the heat generation. In this paper, a heat pump model was applied to estimate the performance and economics of a real-world low-carbon district heating substation. This system is comprised of a flat plate solar collector field paired with a mechanical vapor compression heat pump and hot water thermal storage, augmented by gas-fired boilers. Plant data was used to tune the model and estimate the system's benefits in terms of both standard financial metrics (IRR and payback), and environmental metrics, including avoided CO2 emissions. The model is subsequently employed to estimate the technical and economic potential of solar + heat pump + ther-mal storage hybrid systems as retrofits for district heating systems in eight US Markets.

district heating↗

StratoFIRE: Modeling Wildfire Smoke in the Stratosphere

The most extreme manifestation of a fire–weather interaction is the formation of pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) thunderstorms, triggered by super-heated updrafts, which can eject smoke at altitudes exceeding 20 Km. In this study, we investigated climate-related impacts from the most intensive pyroCb-triggered injection of smoke in the stratosphere: the Australian New Year wildfires in 2019/2020. We first provide a general overview of the vision and objectives of the StratoFIRE project. With the aid of the global chemistry-climate model EMAC, we then simulate radiative and chemical perturbations in the stratosphere in relation to 0.9 Tg smoke in the stratosphere assuming different injection heights, from 13 to 16 Km. The simulation of stratospheric optical depth perturbations were found to be sensitive to the assumed injection height, with a maximum height at 16 Km showing the best agreement with the GLOSSAC and SAGE-ISS aerosol extinction observations.

PyroCb↗

On how fast ions enhance the regulation of drift wave turbulence by zonal flows

Abstract This paper presents a mechanism for enhanced regulation of drift wave turbulence by zonal flows in the presence of a fast ion population. It demonstrates that dilution effects due to the energetic particles (EPs) have a far-reaching impact on all aspects of the nonlinear dynamics. The modulational growth of zonal flow shear and the corresponding evolution of drift wave energy are calculated with dilution effects. The coupled zonal flow growth and drift wave energy equations are reduced to a predator–prey model. This is solved for the fixed points, which represents the various states of the system. Results display a strong dependence on dilution, which leads to greatly reduced levels of saturated turbulence and transport. Implications for the FIRE mode plasma of KSTAR are discussed in detail. This model is perhaps the simplest dynamical one which captures the beneficial effects of EPs on confinement.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-11382-DND

Long-range transport of ozone precursor species and carbonaceous aerosols emitted by wildfires may affect the atmospheric composition and regional climate far away from the location of the fires. Major outbreaks of fires occurred in 3 areas of Asia, Kazakhstan, Siberia, and Thailand, during the spring of 2008. Satellite and aircraft-based observations and trajectory studies have identified the transit of the plumes from these fires across the Pacific. We have conducted simulations of the effects of these fires on the atmospheric composition using the Real-time Air Quality Modeling System (RAQMS). RAQMS is a global scale meteorological and chemical modeling system with unified (stratosphere/troposphere) chemistry module. Model results, for example, indicate that increases of 10 ppbv in upper tropospheric ozone at 180W longitude and northern mid-latitudes in April, 2008 could be attributed to these fires. Large increases in aerosol optical depth due to carbonaceous aerosols are also seen nearer the fire location. Both tropospheric ozone and carbonaceous aerosols influence the atmospheric energy balance and climate. We use an off-line radiative transfer model along with the RAQMS chemical and aerosol analyses to calculate the direct radiative forcing during April, 2008, due to Asian wildfire emissions. Arctic indirect radiative forcing due to these emissions are evaluated using RAQMS aerosol extinction analyses in conjunction with MODIS retrievals of cloud liquid water and effective radius. We will discuss the radiative forcing results and the relative influences of the different fire events.

Murali Natarajan↗

Climatic Effects of Regional Nuclear War

We use a modern climate model and new estimates of smoke generated by fires in contemporary cities to calculate the response of the climate system to a regional nuclear war between emerging third world nuclear powers using 100 Hiroshima-size bombs (less than 0.03% of the explosive yield of the current global nuclear arsenal) on cities in the subtropics. We find significant cooling and reductions of precipitation lasting years, which would impact the global food supply. The climate changes are large and longlasting because the fuel loadings in modern cities are quite high and the subtropical solar insolation heats the resulting smoke cloud and lofts it into the high stratosphere, where removal mechanisms are slow. While the climate changes are less dramatic than found in previous "nuclear winter" simulations of a massive nuclear exchange between the superpowers, because less smoke is emitted, the changes seem to be more persistent because of improvements in representing aerosol processes and microphysical/dynamical interactions, including radiative heating effects, in newer global climate system models. The assumptions and calculations that go into these conclusions will be described.

Oman, Luke D.↗

Thermal Analysis and Testing of Fastrac Gas Generator Design

The Fastrac Engine is being developed by the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) to help meet the goal of substantially reducing the cost of access to space. This engine relies on a simple gas-generator cycle, which burns a small amount of RP-1 and oxygen to provide gas to drive the turbine and then exhausts the spent fuel. The Fastrac program envisions a combination of analysis, design and hot-fire evaluation testing. This paper provides the supporting thermal analysis of the gas generator design. In order to ensure that the design objectives were met, the evaluation tests have started on a component level and a total of 15 tests of different durations were completed to date at MSFC. The correlated thermal model results will also be compared against hot-fire thermocouple data gathered.

Nguyen, H.↗

Combustion Model of Supersonic Rocket Exhausts in an Entrained Flow Enclosure

This paper describes the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model developed to simulate the supersonic rocket exhaust in an entrained flow cylinder. The model can be used to study the plume-induced environment due to static firing tests of the Taurus-II launch vehicle. The finite-rate chemistry is used to model the combustion process involving rocket propellant (RP-1) and liquid oxidizer (LOX). A similar chemical reacting model is also used to simulate the mixing of rocket plume and ambient air. The model provides detailed information on the gas concentration and other flow parameters within the enclosed region, thus allowing different operating scenarios to be examined in an efficient manner. It is shown that the real gas influence is significant and yields better agreement with the theory.

Vu, Bruce T.↗

Simulating Pyrocumulonimbus Clouds Using a Multiscale Wildfire Simulation Framework

Pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) clouds, driven by extreme fires under favorable meteorological conditions, can inject smoke into the stratosphere at magnitudes comparable to those of moderate volcanic eruptions, potentially altering the global radiative balance and atmospheric composition. However, simulating pyroCb is particularly challenging in Earth system models. Using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), we developed a novel global multiscale framework to model pyroCb events in California, which includes a high‐resolution fire radiative power time series, a one‐dimensional plume‐rise parameterization, a fire‐induced vertical water vapor transport scheme, and a surface wildfire sensible heat flux representation. Our simulation successfully reproduces many pyroCb features, including cloud height, spatiotemporal evolution, and convective intensity in comparison with satellite and ground‐based observations. Sensitivity experiments show that realistic pyroCb simulation depends on vertical water vapor transport. These advances provide a basis for future exploration of pyroCb impacts at regional and global scales within climate models.

E3SM↗

DETECTING FIRE WITH MACHINE LEARNING-ENABLED VISUAL MONITORING FOR NUCLEAR POWER PLANT ENVIRONMENTS

Nuclear power plants are experiencing significant cost challenges to remain competitive with other energy-generation utilities. Unlike other industries, the cost of operation and maintenance activities is mostly attributed to workforce costs. To mitigate this, nuclear power plant stakeholders are increasingly interested in the development and deployment of machine learning methods to potentially automate or augment manually intensive tasks to reduce costs, especially for monitoring activities. One monitoring function that is visually demanding and that can occur frequently to meet the requirements of a fire protection program is visually monitoring an area for fire occurrence. Currently, fire watch activities consist of a worker physically stationed at a given location with the sole responsibility of observing a given area to ensure a fire is detected and mitigated promptly. This effort focused on the development and evaluation of a suitable deep convolutional neural network to classify individual video frames at a sub-second frequency for the occurrence of “fire” and “no fire” in varying industrial environments similar to nuclear power plants. It is believed that a trained neural network model could be integrated with existing facility video surveillance camera feeds to generate alerts when fire inferences occur in individual frames captured at sub-second temporal resolutions. Extensive effort was dedicated to identifying and curating suitable imagery training data representing varying environments and scene settings with and without flame features to maximize generalization in nuclear power plant environments. The data collection effort resulted in the aggregation of a large, labeled image library exceeding 12,000 images to support model training for diverse industrial environments. A deep neural network model incorporating parallel multi-scale capabilities was developed and trained to support accurate image-based detection of flame incidents of varying sizes and spectral feature properties within heterogeneous scenes. Analysis results show that the trained model can achieve high inference accuracy despite heterogeneous scene environments and components. Testing accuracy exceeded 95.0 percent with very low false positive and false negative inferences.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Impact of grassland fire dynamics on particulate emission factors

Understanding particulate emission factors in grassland fires is critical for improving air quality assessments and refining emissions inventories. This study explores the dynamic and heterogeneous nature of fire processes and their influence on particulate emissions. Traditional emission factor inventories often rely on static values, overlooking the spatially and temporally variable dynamics of fire behavior. Through field experiments conducted at Konza Prairie Biological Station measuring emissions with uncrewed aerial vehicles, and computational modeling using HIGRAD/FIRETEC, this research highlights the dependency of emission production on localized fire dynamics, including ignition patterns, fuel properties, and atmospheric conditions. The results demonstrate a need for fire dynamic considerations to accurately capture emissions variability.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Informing Dionaea muscipula (Venus Flytrap) Conservation Through Habitat Modeling and Forecasted Land Cover Change

The carnivorous Dionaea muscipula (Venus flytrap, Droseraceae) is threatened by habitat loss, fire suppression, and poaching. For rare plant species like D. muscipula with specialized habitat requirements and fragmented distribution, habitat suitability modeling is an important method for guiding conservation efforts. To support the D. muscipula conservation, this study: 1) modeled suitable habitat across the extent of the species’ known range and 2) forecasted land cover change due to development in the study area to the year 2050. Habitat modeling was conducted by overlaying high-confidence presence data observed since 1980 (n=292) with environmental predictor variables (n=23). Suitable habitats were then compared with land cover change to identify areas at risk of habitat loss due to human development. According to those models, nearly half (107.1km2) of modeled highly suitable D. muscipula habitat outside of protected lands are likely to face development pressure. On the other hand, 39.4% (139.9km2) of highly suitable habitats overlap with protected lands and may serve as lasting D. muscipula habitat. Results from this study can inform D. muscipula conservation, including targeted seed banking of populations at risk of extirpation, prioritization of habitats for protection and management, and reintroduction to suitable habitats within protected areas.

Kathryn Caruso↗

Thermochemical characterization of intumescent materials and their application in FEM models using Aria

Intumescent materials are in wide use as protective coatings in fire protection or thermal management applications. These materials undergo chemical reactions occurring from approximately 300°C to 900°C, which outgas and expand the material, providing an appreciable increase in insulative performance. However, the complicated chemical mechanisms and large changes in materials properties complicate the incorporation of these materials into predictive thermal models. This document serves to outline the thermochemical characterization of select intumescent materials, the extraction of relevant parameters, and the incorporation of these parameters into the ChemEQ reaction model implemented in Aria. This work was performed in 2016 and documented in a draft SAND report in March 2017. In 2022, the draft SAND report was discovered and put through R&A.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Simple models for the shuttle remote manipulator system

The investigation is aimed at establishing a series of simple models which can be used to study the forces and moments which occur due to the reaction control system (RCS) jet plume firings during a deployment or retrieval of an IUS type payload. The models considered in this investigation are primarily planar in nature. In this study primary attention is given to the roles the payload play in determining the overall moments on the remote manipulator system arm.

Fowler, W. T.↗

Machine Learning Analysis of Impact of Western US Fires on Central US Hailstorms

Fires, including wildfires, harm air quality and essential public services like transportation, communication, and utilities. These fires can also influence atmospheric conditions, including temperature and aerosols, potentially affecting severe convective storms. Here, we investigate the remote impacts of fires in the western United States (WUS) on the occurrence of large hail (size: $\geqslant$ 2.54 cm) in the central US (CUS) over the 20-year period of 2001–20 using the machine learning (ML), Random Forest (RF), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) methods. The developed RF and XGB models demonstrate high accuracy (> 90%) and F1 scores of up to 0.78 in predicting large hail occurrences when WUS fires and CUS hailstorms coincide, particularly in four states (Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas). The key contributing variables identified from both ML models include the meteorological variables in the fire region (temperature and moisture), the westerly wind over the plume transport path, and the fire features (i.e., the maximum fire power and burned area). Importantly, the results confirm a linkage between WUS fires and severe weather in the CUS, corroborating the findings of our previous modeling study conducted on case simulations with a detailed physics model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Passive Rocket Diffuser Testing: Performance Similitude Via Nozzle Contour Modification

Subscale rocket testing offers a chance to examine exhaust plume behavior and prove out auxiliary systems early in a development cycle, when the cost of design iteration remains low. Despite the utility of experimentation, perfect similitude between a rocket engine and a scaled model is unobtainable; choices must be made to prioritize the reproduction of certain parameters at the expense of others. The experimentalist’s toolkit contains a variety of techniques to achieve this selective similarity. Determination of the appropriate tool is dependent on a test series’ specific objectives, facility limitations, and financial considerations. Preservation of full nozzle geometry is crucial if its internal flow is of interest. However, subscale thrusters often serve as a simple plume source in the evaluation of adjacent phenomena: vehicle base pressures, retropropulsive flows, supersonic diffuser performance, refractory erosion, deflector cooling, impingement shock structures, etc. In such cases, it may be permissible to rework the nozzle geometry to compensate for discrepancies in subscale propellant pressure, temperature, or chemical composition. Thrust, pressure, Mach number, heat flux, and myriad other parameters can be used to ground the altered designs. Subscale diffuser testing at the full chamber pressure of flight hardware is occasionally infeasible. It is hypothesized that, absent a means of backpressure reduction, comparable performance may be obtained for a prescribed motive fluid by maintaining scaled engine mass flow and nozzle exit geometry at the expense of throat geometry, exit pressure, and Mach number. The present work offers discrete empirical support for this mass-flow-based approach to contour modification.

subscale↗