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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 667 records · Page 37
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Fluorine Limits and Impacts in High-Level Waste Glass Compositions

The impact of elevated fluorine (F) content on Hanford high-level waste (HLW) glasses has not previously been studied in detail. This effort represents the first systematic study to determine what F concentration limits should be used for the design of alkali-borosilicate-based Hanford Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) HLW glasses, and to document the technical basis for that limit. If alkali borosilicate glass made from Hanford HLW can accommodate a large amount of F, the large capital costs for complex sludge washing facilities may be avoided, as would much of the operational costs and negative schedule impacts associated with handling the large volumes of water required to dissolve these salts. In order to determine a limit for F in likely HLW glass compositions, an evaluation was conducted on glasses with F ≤ 0.90 mass% from previous nuclear waste glass studies. The collected dataset contains 239 glasses (232 HLW glasses and 7 LAW glasses) including 109 glasses with 0.9 ≤ F mass% ≤ 2.5, 116 with 2.5 < F mass% ≤ 8.0, and 14 with F mass% ≥ 8 (max. F mass% = 17.42). The collected composition and property data were analyzed to determine the basis for the F tolerance, i.e. the maximum F concentration that can be processed without potential issues. Fluorine volatility, product consistency test (PCT) response, liquidus temperature (T L ), glass melt viscosity, and crystallinity have been investigated. No limits for F concentration can be made based on F volatility, T L , or glass melt viscosity, because the data show that high F in glasses do not indicate, with high probability, being restricted by those property constrains. However, crystallinity and PCT response were used to estimate the F tolerance. The results show that glasses with high F (≥ 0.90 mass%) are more likely to form large fractions of F-containing crystal phases which may increase PCT responses, i.e. decrease the glass durability. Based on the results of crystallinity and PCT data, the F tolerance of 4.5 mass% is estimated. There is no evidence of other glass components, such as calcium oxides and alkali metal oxides have combined impacts with F on the glass properties. Overall, the available high-F glass data is limited, especially in the designed HLW glass composition regions. Future work on formulation and testing of HLW glasses with F ≥ 0.9 mass% will close the data gaps and expand operational flexibility with respect to the fluoride tolerances. Volatility of F from melters and corrosion of materials in contact with glass melts are important for processing of high-F wastes; yet no test data are currently available. It is recommended tests be conducted to address these two potential issues.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

AlphaBuilding - Synthetic Buildings Operation Dataset

This is a synthetic building operation dataset which includes HVAC, lighting, miscellaneous electric loads (MELs) system operating conditions, occupant counts, environmental parameters, end-use and whole-building energy consumptions at 10-minute intervals. The data is created with 1395 annual simulations using the U.S. DOE detailed medium-sized reference office building, and 30 years' historical weather data in three typical climates including Miami, San Francisco, and Chicago. Three energy efficiency levels of the building and systems are considered. Assumptions regarding occupant movements, occupants' diverse temperature preferences, lighting, and MELs are adopted to reflect realistic building operations. A semantic building metadata schema - BRICK, is used to store the building metadata. The dataset is saved in a 1.2 TB of compressed HDF5 file. This dataset can be used in various applications, including building energy and load shape benchmarking, energy model calibration, evaluation of occupant and weather variability and their influences on building performance, algorithm development and testing for thermal and energy load prediction, model predictive control, policy development for reinforcement learning based building controls.

AlphaBuilding↗
DOE OSTI2025

Discrete global grid system-based flow routing datasets in the Amazon and Yukon basins

Abstract. Discrete global grid systems (DGGS) are emerging spatial data structures widely used to organize geospatial datasets across scales. While DGGS have found applications in various scientific disciplines, including atmospheric science and ecology, their integration into physically based hydrological models and Earth system models (ESMs) has been hindered by the lack of flow routing datasets based on DGGS. In response to this gap, this study pioneers the development of new flow routing datasets using icosahedral Snyder equal-area (ISEA) DGGS and a novel mesh-independent flow direction model. We present flow routing datasets for two large basins, the tropical Amazon River basin and the Arctic Yukon River basin. These datasets (1) facilitate the adoption of DGGS for hydrological models and (2) provide flow routing inputs for evaluation of DGGS-based flow routing in the Amazon and Yukon river basins. The data are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8377765 (Liao, 2023).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Accelerated Charged Particle Tracking with Graph Neural Networks on FPGAs

We develop and study FPGA implementations of algorithms for charged particle tracking based on graph neural networks. The two complementary FPGA designs are based on OpenCL, a framework for writing programs that execute across heterogeneous platforms, and hls4ml, a high-level-synthesis-based compiler for neural network to firmware conversion. We evaluate and compare the resource usage, latency, and tracking performance of our implementations based on a benchmark dataset. We find a considerable speedup over CPU-based execution is possible, potentially enabling such algorithms to be used effectively in future computing workflows and the FPGA-based Level-1 trigger at the CERN Large Hadron Collider.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Dynamic Model Agnostic Reliability Evaluation of Machine-Learning Models Integrated in Instrumentation & Control Systems

In recent years, the field of data-driven neural network-based machine learning (ML) algorithms has grown significantly and spurred research in its applicability to instrumentation and control systems. While they are promising in operational contexts, the trustworthiness of such algorithms is not adequately assessed. Failures of ML-integrated systems are poorly understood; the lack of comprehensive risk modeling can degrade the trustworthiness of these systems. In recent reports by the National Institute for Standards and Technology, trustworthiness in ML is a critical barrier to adoption and will play a vital role in intelligent systems' safe and accountable operation. Thus, in this work, we demonstrate a real-time model-agnostic method to evaluate the relative reliability of ML predictions by incorporating out-of-distribution detection on the training dataset. It is well documented that ML algorithms excel at interpolation (or near-interpolation) tasks but significantly degrade at extrapolation. This occurs when new samples are "far" from training samples. The method, referred to as the Laplacian distributed decay for reliability (LADDR), determines the difference between the operational and training datasets, which is used to calculate a prediction's relative reliability. LADDR is demonstrated on a feedforward neural network-based model used to predict safety significant factors during different loss-of-flow transients. LADDR is intended as a "data supervisor" and determines the appropriateness of well-trained ML models in the context of operational conditions. Ultimately, LADDR illustrates how training data can be used as evidence to support the trustworthiness of ML predictions when utilized for conventional interpolation tasks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Learning curves for drug response prediction in cancer cell lines

Motivated by the size and availability of cell line drug sensitivity data, researchers have been developing machine learning (ML) models for predicting drug response to advance cancer treatment. As drug sensitivity studies continue generating drug response data, a common question is whether the generalization performance of existing prediction models can be further improved with more training data. We utilize empirical learning curves for evaluating and comparing the data scaling properties of two neural networks (NNs) and two gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) models trained on four cell line drug screening datasets. The learning curves are accurately fitted to a power law model, providing a framework for assessing the data scaling behavior of these models. The curves demonstrate that no single model dominates in terms of prediction performance across all datasets and training sizes, thus suggesting that the actual shape of these curves depends on the unique pair of an ML model and a dataset. The multi-input NN (mNN), in which gene expressions of cancer cells and molecular drug descriptors are input into separate subnetworks, outperforms a single-input NN (sNN), where the cell and drug features are concatenated for the input layer. In contrast, a GBDT with hyperparameter tuning exhibits superior performance as compared with both NNs at the lower range of training set sizes for two of the tested datasets, whereas the mNN consistently performs better at the higher range of training sizes. Moreover, the trajectory of the curves suggests that increasing the sample size is expected to further improve prediction scores of both NNs. These observations demonstrate the benefit of using learning curves to evaluate prediction models, providing a broader perspective on the overall data scaling characteristics. A fitted power law learning curve provides a forward-looking metric for analyzing prediction performance and can serve as a co-design tool to guide experimental biologists and computational scientists in the design of future experiments in prospective research studies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reference Site Conditions for Floating Wind Arrays in the United States

Floating offshore wind farm design is highly site-specific, requiring detailed information about the specific conditions of a project area for realistic design studies. Unfortunately, publicly available site condition data for potential floating offshore wind project sites in the United States is scarce. To support U.S. offshore wind research, we developed reference site condition datasets, including metocean and seabed information, for four potential floating wind project areas in the U.S.: Humboldt Bay, Morro Bay, the Gulf of Maine, and the Gulf of Mexico. These datasets were compiled using publicly available data. Our metocean analysis, covering wind, waves, and surface currents, utilized measurement data from 2000 to 2020. Sources included the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s National Offshore Wind Dataset for wind data, National Data Buoy Center buoys for wave data, and the High Frequency Radar Network for surface currents. These data were integrated into hourly time series used to compute extreme return periods up to 500 years, monthly statistics, and joint probability clusters for fatigue analysis. Soil conditions were evaluated using the usSEABED database and bathymetry grids were interpolated from the NCEI Digital Elevation Model Global Mosaic. In addition to providing curated reference site condition datasets for four U.S. areas, our assessment highlights the need for more publicly available metocean and soil condition data.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

PPI DataHub Project Data Package: S. elongatus PCC 7942 Limited Proteolysis and Thermal Proteome Profiling Structural Proteomics (JM-PB-DP3)

The purpose of this experiment was to investigate structural alterations in proteins involved in central carbon metabolism and photosynthetic electron transfer pathways in Synechococcus elongatus PCC 7942. Sample data was obtained from S. elongatus cell lysates using three complementary mass spectrometry (MS) techniques using limited proteolysis (LiP-MS), thermal proteome profiling (TPP-MS), and redox enrichment (Redox-MS) in evaluating alterations solvent accessibility and structural stability caused by light perturbation at the molecular level. Experimentally processed sample data for LiP and TPP proteomic datasets were derived from the same cell culture stock, prepared simultaneously in parallel, and acquired by mass spectrometry. Processed datasets are openly accessible from the download button and contain secondary processed proteomic results files, computed outputs, and supporting metadata materials. Experimental samples processed for LiP-MS label-free quantification (LFQ) or TPP-MS tandem mass tag (TMT) 10-plex were acquired using a Q-Exactive HF-X mass spectrometer and processed/compiled using either MSGF+ (v2024.03.26) or ​​​​PlexedPiper for proteome evaluation. Additional software supporting downstream proteomic analysis include FragPipe (v.4.0), MSFragger (v.22.1), and an adapted Microbial Isolate LiP Analysis Workflow (located at Zenodo). Processed proteomic data downloads include a sample naming key, normalized quantification results files, and processed protein annotated abundance files.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating the Impact of Residential Solar Contract Cancellations in the United States

The residential solar photovoltaic (PV) market in the United States is growing, despite frequent customer cancellations. Contract cancellations result in lost time and costs that must be borne by installers, often in the form of higher "soft costs" (i.e., non-equipment costs). These costs are often passed on to customers who successfully install PV systems. To date, few studies have attempted to estimate national cancellation rates or model the impacts on installed system costs. In this report, we utilize an installer-provided dataset of 199,665 residential PV-only projects representing about 10% of U.S. installs each year from 2017-2019. With this data, we evaluate cancellation rates and trends from contract signing to install. Next, by leveraging NREL's soft cost model for residential solar, we estimate installer spending through each phase of the pre-install process. Applying our findings on cancellation timelines and rates, we then estimate the potential cost impacts to successful installs from contract cancellations. Our work suggests that the rates and impacts of contract cancellations have been previously underestimated. Namely, we find that cancellations/unsuccessful project are; more common than previous estimates suggest; occur earlier in project timelines, though a significant number happen even after permit/ATB approvals; and contribute significantly to customer acquisition and other soft costs. We also find that cancellation do not appear to be driven by review delays in permitting and interconnection applications.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Correlation approach for quality assurance of additive manufactured parts based on optical metrology

Surface topography and surface finish are two significant factors for evaluating the quality of products in additive manufacturing (AM). AM parts are fabricated layer by layer, which is quite different from traditional formative or subtractive methods. Despite rapid progress in additive manufacturing and associated optical metrology for quality control and in-situ monitoring, limited research has been conducted to investigate the reliability of 3D surface measurement data. The surface topologies scanned by multiple optical systems demonstrated significant differences due to varying sampling mechanisms, resolutions, system noises, etc. The 3D datasets should be trustworthy in order to extract parameters for quality assurance or feedback control from 3D surface measurements. In this paper, we set up new standards to evaluate the reliability of 3D surface measurement data and analyze the variation in the topographical profile. In this study, two non-contact optical methods based on Focus Variation Microscopy (FVM) and Structured Light System (SLS) were adopted to measure the surface topography of the target components. The two optical metrology systems generated two entirely different point cloud datasets. Statistical methods were applied to test the difference between the data obtained from the two systems. By using a data analytics approach for comparison, it was found that the surface roughness estimated from the point cloud data sets of FVM and SLS has no significant difference, though the point cloud data sets were completely different. This paper provides standard validation approach to evaluate the plausibility of metrology data from in-situ real-time surface analysis for process planning of AM.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating Production Implications of Pressure Maintenance in Unconventional Oil and Gas Wells using a Machine Learning Modeling Approach: Case Study in the Permian Basin

This study implements the proprietary machine learning-based model (model) developed under the 2022 study titled “Evaluating the Impact of Proprietary Oil & Gas Data on Machine Learning Model Performance Using a Quasi-Experimental Analytical Approach” for forecasting unconventional oil and gas production using well data from the Permian Basin. The model, developed using an exclusive dataset that includes time series production data from an operator in the Permian Basin, is designed to jointly predict daily oil, gas, and water production for horizontal wells as a function of bottomhole pressure drawdown, spatial placement across the study domain, and well-completion attributes. In this study, the model was explicitly applied to explore its utility to evaluate the impact of varying drawdown strategies on the production forecast of a well in the Permian Basin dataset. Managing pressure drawdown has been identified as a way to improve estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) from unconventional shale wells due to the stress-dependent nature of fractures in shale reservoirs. Research has shown that applying a lower pressure drawdown helps to maintain the reservoir conductivity, resulting in higher productivity over the life of a well. Historic bottomhole pressure data from the well over time was used as a benchmark from which to set more and less aggressive pressure decline rates as bounding modeling cases. All pressure decline rates/strategies were forecasted over 5 years, and the model was used to generate oil, water, and gas prediction over the same timeframe. This report presents the results from the production forecast and discusses potential operational and economic implications, with contrasting perspectives between well productivity and profitability given typical oil and gas economics and the volatility in the oil and gas market.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data for: A hybrid biophysical-machine learning framework for diurnal surface energy flux estimation using proximal sensing

Thermal-based remote sensing of surface energy fluxes has traditionally relied on high spatial resolution satellite data with revisit frequencies on the order of weeks. In this study, we evaluate a biophysics-based analytical surface energy balance model for predicting latent energy (LE) and sensible heat (H) fluxes using proximal sensing observations. The Surface Temperature Initiated Closure (STIC1.2) model has been extensively validated across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales using various satellite-derived thermal datasets. Here we extend this validation by applying STIC at sub-hourly temporal resolution over multiple growing seasons for four distinct agricultural systems. We further develop and evaluate novel STIC variants that incorporate machine learning (ML) techniques to eliminate the need for specific surface energy balance observations, specifically net radiation and soil heat flux, thereby enhancing model applicability in data-sparse settings. The integration of an ML component to estimate surface available energy is shown to have strong predictive performance for both LE (R2 = 0.81-0.94) and H (R2 = 0.46-0.72) across all agricultural systems examined here, demonstrating the potential of hybrid biophysical – machine learning approaches for surface energy balance modeling with minimal data requirements. This study concludes with a novel application of explainable machine learning (exML) to diagnose sources of model error. This exML framework attributes residual prediction errors to both model input variables and environmental drivers not explicitly included in the simulation experiments. This approach provides a new pathway for improving model design and integrating previously overlooked yet influential variables into future model iterations.

Agricultural Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2026

Assessing Photovoltaic Capacity Factor Variability Using Long-Term Satellite Derived Solar Resource Data Under Brazilian Climate

Accurate estimation of photovoltaic (PV) energy yield and its variability is essential for reducing financial risk and supporting reliable system planning for rapidly expanding PV markets. In Brazil, high solar adoption and increasing levels of distributed energy resources are beginning to introduce operational challenges such as curtailment and evolving grid requirements. Understanding how natural variability in solar resource propagates into PV system performance is therefore increasingly important for both project design and grid integration. Modern PV yield assessments commonly rely on multi-year meteorological datasets and probabilistic exceedance metrics (e.g., P50/P90) to quantify energy yield uncertainty for project financing. However, the implications of long-term solar resource variability for PV system design choices and high-adoption grid conditions remain less well characterized for rapidly expanding markets such as Brazil. In particular, understanding how weather-driven variability propagates into PV production distributions and capacity factor expectations is important for evaluating curtailment exposure, deployment strategies, and storage requirements in regions experiencing rapid growth of distributed and utility-scale PV. Seasonal and interannual variability in atmospheric conditions can produce substantial fluctuations in monthly PV energy production, which propagate into uncertainty in annual energy yield and capacity factor expectations. Characterizing this variability using long-term meteorological datasets allows probabilistic estimation of PV system performance and provides improved insight into the range of expected PV energy outcomes. This study explores the use of long-term satellite-derived meteorological data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to evaluate the variability of photovoltaic system performance across multiple locations in Brazil. Using a 27-year dataset (1998-2024), PV system simulations are performed to characterize the distribution of annual and seasonal capacity factors and energy yield outcomes, while propagating key sources of meteorological variability and model uncertainty through the PV modeling chain. The analysis also investigates the sensitivity of PV performance outcomes to key system design assumptions within the PV modeling chain, including tracking configuration and system sizing parameters. The resulting probabilistic performance characterization provides insight into how weather-driven variability influences PV production expectations and capacity factor distributions. These results provide a foundation for evaluating how weather-driven variability interacts with high PV adoption and potential storage or curtailment mitigation strategies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Direct NeTS sampling of nuclear graphite $S(α, β, T)$ in Serpent

For advanced reactor applications, Neural Thermal Scattering (NeTS) modules were developed to predict the thermal scattering law (TSL or $S(α, β, T)$) of a nuclear graphite neutron moderator. NeTS are multi-layer, feedforward artificial neural networks, which act as universal function approximators designed for TSL datasets. In this case, a 4-layer neural network with 164 neurons per layer is trained using FLASSH evaluated data in PyTorch and serialized as a torchscript dictionary to predict $S(α, β, T)$ on-the-fly. Relative, absolute and maximum percent deviations of NeTS from File 7 data generated using the FLASSH code are on the order of 0.01%, 0.1% and 1%, respectively, with low inference latencies of 0.000172 s per $S(α, β, T)$ at a given temperature. Capturing the full dimensionality of possible inelastic neutron-lattice interactions, NeTS functionality is embedded in the Serpent Monte Carlo code, where $S(α, β, T)_{NeTS}$ sampling is conducted on-the-fly and compared to ACE look-up-tables for predicting TREAT criticality. k-eff differences between sampling algorithms of 6 pcm are observed and are within the order of Monte Carlo uncertainty. Compared to discrete and continuous-energy ACE files (30 MB and 131 MB per temperature), the NeTS format is on the order of 200–300 kB for a continuous-temperature, interpolation-free representation of $S(α, β, T)$ and cross sections. NeTS-in-Serpent runtimes comparable with ACE look-up tables are achieved by scaling NeTS for high performance computing architectures with hybrid OpenMP + MPI parallelization. This work validates a novel, self-contained reactor physics framework for predictive cross sections, and demonstrates a general methodology for embedding modern machine learning libraries within existing neutronic analysis frameworks.

Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP)↗
DOE OSTI2025

A critical review and meta-analysis of energy demand, carbon footprint, and other environmental impacts from carbon fiber manufacturing

The demand for carbon fibers and carbon fiber-reinforced polymers (CFRPs) is rapidly growing due to their outstanding mechanical properties and potential to enhance sustainability, particularly for lightweighting applications. However, carbon fibers are typically produced from fossil-based feedstocks, involve energy-intensive processes, and have limited options for sustainable end-of-life management or circularity. Despite these challenges, the energy demand and lifecycle environmental implications of their production remain poorly understood. Here, we conduct a critical literature review and meta-analysis of carbon fiber manufacturing, revealing significant variations in reported energy demand, carbon footprint, and lifecycle inventory data. Our analysis makes two novel contributions. First, we identify key underlying factors driving these variations. Second, we highlight that carbon fiber, far from being a homogeneous product, has grades varying substantially in mechanical properties, end-use markets, energy intensity of manufacturing processes, and therefore environmental impacts—an aspect often underrepresented in life cycle assessments. We assert that current data are insufficient for reliably evaluating environmental impacts, posing a risk of misleading decision-making. Addressing this gap requires new lifecycle inventory datasets clearly incorporating carbon fiber heterogeneity and key influencing factors identified in this study. Additionally, we propose actionable recommendations, including a checklist, to advance sustainability in the carbon fiber sector.

CED↗
DOE OSTI2026

Spatially Accelerated Winding Numbers for Curved Geometry

The generalized winding number (GWN) is a scalar field that supports robust containment queries on curved geometry, including non-watertight, overlapping, and nested boundary representations. While queries can be easily parallelized over samples, direct evaluation on parametric curves and surfaces remains costly for large and complex models. Fast, state-of-the-art GWN approaches leverage a spatial index to approximate the GWN, typically coupled with a Taylor expansion which approximates the GWN contribution for far clusters of geometric primitives. However, such methods operate only on discrete inputs such as triangle meshes and point clouds, and would introduce containment errors near boundaries if applied to curved input. We extend support for fast GWN evaluation over arbitrary collections of NURBS curves in 2D and trimmed NURBS patches in 3D via a Bounding Volume Hierarchy that stores efficiently precomputed moment data in the hierarchy nodes. When querying the hierarchy, approximations for far clusters are used alongside direct evaluation for nearby NURBS primitives, achieving sub-linear complexity while preserving the geometric features in the vicinity of the query point. Central to our performance improvements is an adaptive subdivision strategy for NURBS primitives during a preprocessing phase, creating better spatial partitions while retaining the same accuracy for containment decisions as a direct evaluation. We demonstrate the performance and accuracy of our approach across a large collection of 2D and 3D datasets.

Computer science↗
DOE OSTI2020

AWARE: The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment

The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE) performed comprehensive meteorological and aerosol measurements and ground-based atmospheric remote sensing at two Antarctic stations using the most advanced instrumentation available. A suite of cloud research radars, lidars, spectral and broadband radiometers, aerosol chemical and microphysical sampling equipment, and meteorological instrumentation was deployed at McMurdo Station on Ross Island from December 2015 through December 2016. A smaller suite of radiometers and meteorological equipment, including radiosondes optimized for surface energy budget measurement, was deployed on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet between 4 December 2015 and 17 January 2016. AWARE provided Antarctic atmospheric data comparable to several well-instrumented high Arctic sites that have operated for many years and that reveal numerous contrasts with the Arctic in aerosol and cloud microphysical properties. These include persistent differences in liquid cloud occurrence, cloud height, and cloud thickness. Antarctic aerosol properties are also quite different from the Arctic in both seasonal cycle and composition, due to the continent’s isolation from lower latitudes by Southern Ocean storm tracks. Antarctic aerosol number and mass concentrations are not only non-negligible but perhaps play a more important role than previously recognized because of the higher sensitivities of clouds at the very low concentrations caused by the large-scale dynamical isolation. Antarctic aerosol chemical composition, particularly organic components, has implications for local cloud microphysics. The AWARE dataset, fully available online in the ARM Program data archive, offers numerous case studies for unique and rigorous evaluation of mixed-phase cloud parameterization in climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data and code for Daily and Multi-Day Extreme Rainfall Analysis Under Future Climates Using Stochastic Storm Transposition and NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 Over CONUS

This data package provides inputs, codes, and outputs for a comprehensive analysis of projected changes in extreme precipitation across 10 regions of the continental United States, using 34 downscaled Earth System Models (ESMs) from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) dataset. These models are part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), a coordinated climate modeling framework widely used to assess climate change impacts. The analysis applies a stochastic storm transposition method to quantify changes in extreme rainfall under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) climate scenarios—SSP2-4.5 (moderate emissions) and SSP5-8.5 (high emissions)—compared to historical conditions (1995–2014 vs. 2081–2100). The dataset includes rainfall depth estimates for extreme events with return periods from 2 to 500 years across multiple storm durations (1, 3, and 5 days) for each of the 10 U.S. regions. Weighted ensemble statistics are derived from individual ESM performance against historical precipitation patterns, enabling robust uncertainty quantification through both sign-based and permutation-test-based model agreement assessments. Key analyses address: (1) relative changes in extreme precipitation for each climate scenario, (2) differences between SSP scenarios (SSP5-8.5 vs. SSP2-4.5), (3) contrasts between rare and frequent events, and (4) variations between multi-day and daily storm durations. The workflow produces ensemble statistics—median, 5th, 25th, 75th, and 95th percentiles—along with model agreement metrics that identify regions and event types with robust climate change signals. The dataset includes: processed rainfall depth outputs (netCDF format) from the RainyDay Python package, ESM weights from historical performance evaluation using DayMet observations, ensemble statistics across all storm dimensions, and figures summarizing key findings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗