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The SPARC-Reanalysis Intercomparison Project: Summary of Phase 1 and Plans for Phase 2 (S-RIP2): Chemical Reanalyses & Air Quality, Tropospheric Circulation, Extreme Events, and More

Reanalysis datasets are widely used to understand numerous atmospheric processes. Different reanalyses may give very different results for the same diagnostics. The Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP, https://s-rip.github.io/) is a coordinated activity to compare key diagnostics among available reanalyses, identify differences among reanalyses and their underlying causes, provide guidance on appropriate usage of reanalyses in scientific studies, and contribute to future improvements in the reanalysis products via collaborations with reanalysis centers and data users. S-RIP Phase 1 (completed in early 2022) focused primarily on the upper troposphere through the middle atmosphere and processes linking these regions to the troposphere and surface. We look forward to broadening our efforts in Phase 2 (S-RIP2), with new foci including studies of tropospheric circulation, extreme weather events, and their links to the stratosphere, and focusing on evaluation of chemical reanalyses, both those with a stratosphere / upper troposphere focus and those that focus on air quality applications. This presentation will provide a summary of Phase 1 results and discussion of future directions for S-RIP2, emphasizing applications to composition and chemistry studies as well as fostering capacity building for Early Career Scientists.

Jonathan S Wright↗

Broadening Systematic Reanalysis lntercomparisons in the SPARC-Reanalysis lntercomparison Project Phase 2 (S-RIP2): Chemical Reanalyses & Air Quality, Tropospheric Circulation, Extreme Events, and More

Reanalysis datasets are widely used to understand numerous atmospheric processes. Different reanalyses may give very different results for the same diagnostics. The Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP, https://s-rip.github.io/) is a coordinated activity to compare key diagnostics among available reanalyses, identify differences among reanalyses and their underlying causes, provide guidance on appropriate usage of reanalyses in scientific studies, and contribute to future improvements in the reanalysis products via collaborations with reanalysis centers and data users. S-RIP Phase 1 (completed in early 2022) focused primarily on the upper troposphere through the middle atmosphere and processes linking these regions to the troposphere and surface. We look forward to broadening our efforts in Phase 2 (S-RIP2), with new foci including studies of tropospheric circulation, extreme weather events, and their links to the stratosphere, and focusing on evaluation of chemical reanalyses, both those with a stratosphere / upper troposphere focus and those that focus on air quality applications. This presentation will provide a summary of Phase 1 results and discussion of future directions for S-RIP2, emphasizing applications to composition and chemistry studies as well as fostering capacity building for Early Career Scientists.

Sean M Davis↗

Broadening Systematic Reanalysis Intercomparisons in the SPARC-Reanalysis Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (S-RIP2): Chemical Reanalyses & Air Quality, Tropospheric Circulation, Extreme Events, and More

Reanalysis datasets are widely used to understand numerous atmospheric processes. Different reanalyses may give very different results for the same diagnostics. The Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP, https://s-rip.github.io/) is a coordinated activity to compare key diagnostics among available reanalyses, identify differences among reanalyses and their underlying causes, provide guidance on appropriate usage of reanalyses in scientific studies, and contribute to future improvements in the reanalysis products via collaborations with reanalysis centers and data users. S-RIP Phase 1 (completed in early 2022) focused primarily on the upper troposphere through the middle atmosphere and processes linking these regions to the troposphere and surface. We look forward to broadening our efforts in Phase 2 (S-RIP2), with new foci including studies of tropospheric circulation, extreme weather events, and their links to the stratosphere, and focusing on evaluation of chemical reanalyses, both those with a stratosphere / upper troposphere focus and those that focus on air quality applications. This presentation will provide a summary of Phase 1 results and discussion of future directions for S-RIP2, emphasizing applications to composition and chemistry studies as well as fostering capacity building for Early Career Scientists.

Sean M Davis↗

Assessing Wetland Hydroperiod and Soil Moisture with Remote Sensing: A Demonstration for the NASA Plum Brook Station Year 2

Assist with the evaluation and measuring of wetlands hydroperiod at the Plum Brook Station using multi-source remote sensing data as part of a larger effort on projecting climate change-related impacts on the station's wetland ecosystems. MTRI expanded on the multi-source remote sensing capabilities to help estimate and measure hydroperiod and the relative soil moisture of wetlands at NASA's Plum Brook Station. Multi-source remote sensing capabilities are useful in estimating and measuring hydroperiod and relative soil moisture of wetlands. This is important as a changing regional climate has several potential risks for wetland ecosystem function. The year two analysis built on the first year of the project by acquiring and analyzing remote sensing data for additional dates and types of imagery, combined with focused field work. Five deliverables were planned and completed: (1) Show the relative length of hydroperiod using available remote sensing datasets, (2) Date linked table of wetlands extent over time for all feasible non-forested wetlands, (3) Utilize LIDAR data to measure topographic height above sea level of all wetlands, wetland to catchment area radio, slope of wetlands, and other useful variables (4), A demonstration of how analyzed results from multiple remote sensing data sources can help with wetlands vulnerability assessment; and (5) A MTRI style report summarizing year 2 results.

Brooks, Colin↗

K-Means Cluster Study for Radiofrequency Propagation Characterization

The objective of this study is to design a simple method for mining radio frequency (RF) propagation data. The study explored the characteristics of a large dataset of propagation experiments conducted over the span of years and using several ground stations around the world. Furthermore, this study developed simple predictive models that can be used for link characterization and overall propagation behavior description, without the need for physical measurements on-site. It is understood that such statistical learning has several drawbacks in terms of accuracy and precision. K-means clustering was used to characterize the data set in a way never explored before in an attempt to create useful tools that reduce cost, time and risk. K-means clustering was used to characterize the data set. Cosine distance was used as a method to determine the optimal number for clustering each feature. Dependence and independence analysis was performed to explore intra and inter-sensitivity between the presented features, with respect to each other and time. Several predicative models were generated and evaluated with respect to a test set to assess a measure of prediction accuracy and precision. A simple method for data analysis was developed and tested as the basis for further studies and future refinement to produce optimal performing models.

Cognitive↗

Carbon-Temperature-Water Change Analysis for Peanut Production Under Climate Change: A Prototype for the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP)

Climate change is projected to push the limits of cropping systems and has the potential to disrupt the agricultural sector from local to global scales. This article introduces the Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP), an initiative of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to engage a global network of crop modelers to explore the impacts of climate change via an investigation of crop responses to changes in carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]), temperature, and water. As a demonstration of the C3MP protocols and enabled analyses, we apply the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) CROPGRO-Peanut crop model for Henry County, Alabama, to evaluate responses to the range of plausible [CO2], temperature changes, and precipitation changes projected by climate models out to the end of the 21st century. These sensitivity tests are used to derive crop model emulators that estimate changes in mean yield and the coefficient of variation for seasonal yields across a broad range of climate conditions, reproducing mean yields from sensitivity test simulations with deviations of ca. 2% for rain-fed conditions. We apply these statistical emulators to investigate how peanuts respond to projections from various global climate models, time periods, and emissions scenarios, finding a robust projection of modest (<10%) median yield losses in the middle of the 21st century accelerating to more severe (>20%) losses and larger uncertainty at the end of the century under the more severe representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5). This projection is not substantially altered by the selection of the AgMERRA global gridded climate dataset rather than the local historical observations, differences between the Third and Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5), or the use of the delta method of climate impacts analysis rather than the C3MP impacts response surface and emulator approach.

climate change↗

Spatial Heterogeneity in CO2, CH4, and Energy Fluxes: Insights from Airborne Eddy Covariance Measurements Over the Mid-Atlantic Region

The exchange of carbon between the Earth’s atmosphere and biosphere influences the atmospheric abundances of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). Airborne eddy covariance can quantify surface-atmosphere exchange from landscape-to-regional scales, offering a unique perspective on carbon cycle dynamics. We use extensive airborne measurements to quantify fluxes of sensible heat, latent heat, CO2, and CH4across multiple ecosystems in the Mid-Atlantic region during September 2016 and May 2017. In conjunction with footprint analysis and land cover information, we use the airborne dataset to explore the effects of landscape heterogeneity on measured fluxes. Our results demonstrate large variability in CO2 uptake over mixed agricultural and forested sites, with fluxes ranging from -3.4 ± 0.7 to -11.5 ± 1.6μmol m-2s-1 for croplands and -9.1 ± 1.5 to -22.7 ± 3.2μmol m-2s-1for forests. We also report substantial CH4emissions of 32.3 ± 17.0to 76.1 ± 29.4nmol m-2s-1 from a brackish herbaceous wetland and 58.4± 12.0 to 181.2 ± 36.8nmol m-2s-1 from a freshwater forested wetland. Comparison of ecosystem-specific aircraft observations with measurements from eddy covariance flux towers along the flight path demonstrate that towers capture ~30–75% of the regional variability in ecosystem fluxes. Diel patterns measured at the tower sites suggest that peak, midday flux measurements from aircraft accurately predicts net daily CO2exchange. We discuss next steps in applying airborne observations to evaluate bottom-up flux models and improve understanding of the biophysical processes that drive carbon exchange from landscape-to-regional scales.

airborne measurements to quantify fluxes of sensib↗

A Central Asia Hydrologic Monitoring Dataset for Food and Water Security Applications in Afghanistan

From the Hindu Kush mountains to the Registan Desert, Afghanistan is a diverse landscape where droughts, floods, conflict, and economic market accessibility pose challenges for agricultural livelihoods and food security. The ability to remotely monitor environmental conditions is critical to support decision making for humanitarian assistance. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS) global and Central Asia data streams provide information on hydrologic states for routine integrated food security analysis. While developed for a specific project, these data are publicly available and useful for other applications that require hydrologic estimates of the water and energy balance. These two data streams are unique because of their suitability for routine monitoring, as well as for being a historical record for computing relative indicators of water availability. The global stream is available at ∼ 1-month latency, and monthly average outputs are on a 10 km grid from 1982–present. The second data stream, Central Asia (21–56°N, 30–100°E), at ∼ 1 d latency, provides daily average outputs on a 1 km grid from 2000–present. This paper describes the configuration of the two FLDAS data streams, background on the software modeling framework, selected meteorological inputs and parameters, and results from previous evaluation studies. We also provide additional analysis of precipitation and snow cover over Afghanistan. We conclude with an example of how these data are used in integrated food security analysis. For use in new and innovative studies that will improve understanding of this region, these data are hosted by U.S. Geological Survey data portals and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The Central Asia data described in this paper can be accessed via the NASA repository at https://doi.org/10.5067/VQ4CD3Y9YC0R (Jacob and Slinski, 2021), and the global data described in this paper can be accessed via the NASA repository at https://doi.org/10.5067/5NHC22T9375G (McNally, 2018).

Amy McNally↗

Development of Secondary Archive System at Goddard Space Flight Center Version 0 Distributed Active Archive Center

The Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) version 0 Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC) has been developed to support existing and pre Earth Observing System (EOS) Earth science datasets, facilitate the scientific research, and test EOS data and information system (EOSDIS) concepts. To ensure that no data is ever lost, each product received at GSFC DAAC is archived on two different media, VHS and digital linear tape (DLT). The first copy is made on VHS tape and is under the control of UniTree. The second and third copies are made to DLT and VHS media under a custom built software package named 'Archer'. While Archer provides only a subset of the functions available with commercial software like UniTree, it supports migration between near-line and off-line media and offers much greater performance and flexibility to satisfy the specific needs of a data center. Archer is specifically designed to maximize total system throughput, rather than focusing on the turn-around time for individual files. The commercial off the shelf software (COTS) hierarchical storage management (HSM) products evaluated were mainly concerned with transparent, interactive, file access to the end-user, rather than a batch-orientated, optimizable (based on known data file characteristics) data archive and retrieval system. This is critical to the distribution requirements of the GSFC DAAC where orders for 5000 or more files at a time are received. Archer has the ability to queue many thousands of file requests and to sort these requests into internal processing schedules that optimize overall throughput. Specifically, mount and dismount, tape load and unload cycles, and tape motion are minimized. This feature did not seem to be available in many COTS pacages. Archer also uses a generic tar tape format that allows tapes to be read by many different systems rather than the proprietary format found in most COTS packages. This paper discusses some of the specific requirements at GSFC DAAC, the motivations for implementing the Archer system, and presents a discussion of the Archer design that resulted.

Sherman, Mark↗

Geochemical Insights Into Volcanic and Lithospheric Evolution of Mars

Introduction: The Martian lithosphere plays a pivotal role in volcanic processes, altering surface features, climate shifts, and the planet's early habitability. Crucially, the rigid lithosphere significantly influences Mars' long-term thermal conditions. Studying various geological eons’ volcanic compositions unveils how the lithosphere has evolved, even though understanding the early Noachian volcanic chemistry remains challenging due to weathering and resurfacing. In this study, newly discovered Noachian volcanic terranes[1-2] along with Hesperian and Amazonian volcanic terranes[3] are considered(Figure 1), to infer the evolution of the Martian lithosphere. Figure 1:Mars topographic map derived from MOLA-HRSC data [4] highlights the study regions including the Noachian volcanic terranes, Arabia Terra (AT), Thaumasia Minor (TM), and the Southwest Margin of Icaria Planum (SWIP)[5].Additionally, the Hesperian volcanic terranes such as Syrtis Major (SM), Hesperia Planum (HP), and, the Amazonian volcanic terranes encompass Elysium Mons (EM), Alba Patera (AP), and Olympus Mons (OM) are marked. Methods and Datasets: We use the most recent elemental mass fraction maps derived from gamma spectroscopy data from the Mars Odyssey 2001mission [6]to ascertain the bulk composition of the Martian landscape. Utilizing the updated geochemical provinces dataset of Mars[7], we consider bulk chemistry variations within our study regions. The maps, at a resolution of 50×50, encompass elements like Al, Ca, Fe, Si, K, Th, H2O, Cl, and S, detected through Gamma-Ray Spectroscopy (GRS) with decimeter scale depth sensitivity[6].Additional major and minor elements like Mg, Na, Ti, P, and Mn, using mass balance methods [8]serve as inputs for melting and crystallization simulations. We employ the pMELTS model with FMQ-3to FMQ oxygen fugacity to estimate the Pressure(P)and melting degree(F)in various eons of volcanic terranes. We have also used conventional thermobarometric calculations to determine their formation P-T conditions, using silica activity and olivine-melt Mg-exchange thermometry[9-10]. Results: Chemical Composition of Studied Volcanic Terranes: To assess formation conditions, we have investigated if GRS-measured compositions signify primary igneous processes by evaluating weathering through the Chemical Index of Alteration (CIA), K/Th ratios, and ternary plots for aqueous alteration. Consistent K/Th ratios and low CIA (<50) across volcanic regions suggest minimal large-scale weathering, affirming well-preserved igneous material extending at decimeter depths. In addition, the calculated bulk compositions align with Martian mantle equilibrium, confirming studied volcanic terranes-Arabia Terra, Thaumasia Minor, and SWIP -as primary or less altered compositions, reinforcing their representativeness at a regional GRS scale on Mars. We have also estimated the bulk compositions of Hesperian and Amazonian volcanic terranes shown in Figure 1. All volcanic terranes represent the primary or minimally altered composition. Temporal Evolution of Martian Volcanic Terranes: Our results show P-T conditions ranging from 1.3-1.6 GPa and 1350-1390°C for Noachian terranes, while Hesperian volcanic terranes vary from 1.6-1.7 GPa and 1370-1395°C, and Amazonian volcanic terranes range between 1.9-2.8 GPa and 1380-1415°C. Our analyses correspond to lithospheric thicknesses/ depth of melting for Noachian which ranges from110-135 km, 120-235 km for Hesperian terranes, and 160-235 km for Amazonian terranes. Partial melting percentages (F) range from 8-12% for Noachian, 10-11% for Hesperian, and 10-12% for Amazonian. We have also calculated mantle potential temperatures (Tp) to show variations across epochs(Figure 2). Heat flux estimation shows variations from 51-65 mW/m2 for Noachian, 38-45 mW/m2for Hesperian, and 27-39 mW/m2for Amazonian terranes, implying temporal changes in lithospheric thickness and heat flow. Comparison of Noachian volcanic terranes with Hesperian and Amazonian reveals variations in lithospheric thickness and heat flux, indicating potential implications for Martian surface conditions, including volcanic activity, climate evolution, and early habitability. Figure 2: P-T diagram displays formation conditions of studied Martian volcanic regions using GRS data, alongside Noachian-age surface basalt samples from Gusev, Gale, and Jezero. Dashed lines represent Martian mantle potential temperatures, calculated by adding the latent heat of fusion to the equilibrium temperature at which melt and solid mantle coexist and subtracting the Martian adiabatic gradient corresponding to the depth of melt. The solid line shows the Martian mantle solidus [11].Discussion& Implication: The study explores Martian volcanic activity across eons. Uniform lithospheric thickness from the Noachian to Hesperian eons suggests persistent weak plumes until Hesperian, influencing heat flow variations. Noachian's high heat flux, likely due to concentrated radioactive elements, shows spatial heterogeneity, indicating early Mars' differentiated mantle. Volcanic outgassing plays avital role in the formation of the Martian climate, likely sustained water on the surface, influencing warm-wet or cold-dry conditions. Hesperian's favorable lithospheric heat flow (45 mW/m2) supports extended water existence, resembling Earth's conditions. Whereas, Amazonian's diminished heat flux (25 mW/m2) corresponds to water loss and arid climate. Hesperian's similar lithospheric thickness to mid-Noachian implies prolonged water retention, influencing climate and potential for astrobiological research, expanding perspectives for future Martian missions. Future work: As volcanism was active throughout its history. The emergence of Mars' extensive volcanic regions, known as large igneous provinces, which are linked to intermittent volcanic activity driven by mantle plumes, poses challenges to understanding the scale and persistence of these phenomena in Martian convection models. Therefore, understanding the regional-scale changes in eruptive processes within Martian volcanic provinces over time remains unclear and crucial for deciphering the evolution of the Martian interior without Earth-like plate tectonics. We will continue this work with petrological and thermoelastic analyses to study the compositional and spatiotemporal evolution of the Elysium Volcanic Province.

A Rani↗

Assessment of Natural and Anthropogenic Aerosol Air Pollution In the Middle East Using MERRA-2, CAMS Data Assimilation Products, and High-Resolution WRF-Chem Model Simulations

Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications v.2 (MERRA-2), Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service Operational Analysis (CAMS-OA), and a high-resolution regional Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem) were used to evaluate natural and anthropogenic particulate matter (PM) air pollution in the Middle East (ME) during 2015–2016. Two Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) retrievals – combined product Deep Blue and Deep Target (MODIS-DB&DT) and Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) – and Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) aerosol optical depth (AOD) observations as well as in situ PM measurements for 2016 were used for validation of the WRF-Chem output and both assimilation products. MERRA-2 and CAMS-OA assimilate AOD observations. WRF-Chem is a free-running model, but dust emission in WRF-Chem is tuned to fit AOD and aerosol volume size distributions obtained from AERONET. MERRA-2 was used to construct WRF-Chem initial and boundary conditions both for meteorology and chemical and aerosol species. SO2 emissions in WRF-Chem are based on the novel OMI-HTAP SO2 emission dataset. The correlation with the AERONET AOD is highest for MERRA-2 (0.72–0.91), MAIAC (0.63–0.96), and CAMSOA (0.65–0.87), followed by MODIS-DB&DT (0.56–0.84) and WRF-Chem (0.43–0.85). However, CAMS-OA has a relatively high positive mean bias with respect to AERONET AOD. The spatial distributions of seasonally averaged AODs from WRF-Chem, assimilation products, and MAIAC are well correlated with MODIS-DB&DT AOD product. MAIAC has the highest correlation (R = 0.8), followed by MERRA-2 (R = 0.66), CAMS-OA (R = 0.65), and WRF-Chem (R = 0.61). WRF-Chem, MERRA-2, and MAIAC underestimate and CAMS-OA overestimates MODIS-DB&DT AOD. The simulated and observed PM concentrations might differ by a factor of 2 because it is more challenging for the model and the assimilation products to reproduce PM concentration measured within the city. Although aerosol fields in WRF-Chem and assimilation products are entirely consistent, WRF-Chem is preferable for analysis of regional air quality over the ME due to its higher spatial resolution and better SO2 emissions. The WRF-Chem’s PM background concentrations exceed the World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines over the entire ME. Mineral dust is the major contributor to PM (≈ 75%–95%) compared to other aerosol types. Near and downwind from the SO2 emission sources, non-dust aerosols (primarily sulfate) contribute up to 30% to PM(sub 2.5). The contribution of sea salt to PM in coastal regions can reach 5%. The contributions of organic matter, black carbon and organic carbon to PM over the Middle East are insignificant. In the major cities over the Arabian Peninsula, the 90th percentile of PM(sub 10) and PM(sub 2.5) (particles with diameters less than 10 and 2.5 μm, respectively) daily mean surface concentrations exceed the corresponding Kingdom of Saudi Arabia air quality limits. The contribution of the non-dust component to PM(sub 2.5) is < 25%, which limits the emission control effect on air quality. The mitigation of the dust effect on air quality requires the development of environment-based approaches like growing tree belts around the cities and enhancing in-city vegetation cover. The WRF-Chem configuration presented in this study could be a prototype of a future air quality forecast system that warns the population against air pollution hazards.

Alexander Ukhov↗

Utilizing Earth Observations to Model Probable Coastal Wetland Extent, Sea-Level Rise Inundation Risk, and Assess Impacts on Historic Hawaiian Lands

Climate induced sea-level rise poses a risk to coastal areas on the Island of Hawai’i, and many of the island’s historic cultural lands are in danger of becoming overtaken by wetlands or inundation. In partnership with the County of Hawai’i, State of Hawai’i Department of Land and Natural Resources, and Arizona State University, NASA DEVELOP mapped wetland extent and short-term sea-level rise inundation risk. We utilized Earth observations over a 10-year span (2013 – 2022) that included the NASA MEaSUREs Gridded Sea Surface Height Anomalies and MEaSUREs Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature datasets, United States Geological Survey (USGS) Hawaii Digital Elevation Models (DEM), and in situ tidal gauge data. Flood risk index values were acquired for 5 known Hawai’i flood events between 2019 – 2021 from the Global Flood Mapper tool on Google Earth Engine. We used a random forest model to predict short-term sea-level rise inundation risk along the entire coast of Hawai’i. Current wetland extents and probabilistic locations of new wetlands were modeled with the most recently available data from PlanetScope Surface Reflectance optical imagery (2022), USGS 3D Elevation Program (3DEP) 10m DEM (2020), temperature and precipitation data from the Hawai’i Climate Atlas, and soils data from the Hawai’i Soil Atlas (2014) using the Wetland Intrinsic Potential tool. Results indicated locations that had the highest probability of wetland creation. The end products aimed to help the partners prioritize efforts to meeting regulation requirements for wetlands protection, evaluate the inundation risk to historical features, and support decision-making for their Shoreline Setback and Climate Adaption plans.

Lisa Tanh↗

Evaluation of Arctic Warming in Mid-Pliocene Climate Simulations

Palaeoclimate simulations improve our understanding of the climate, inform us about the performance of climate models in a different climate scenario, and help to identify robust features of the climate system. Here, we analyse Arctic warming in an ensemble of 16 simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), derived from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2). The PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates Arctic (60–90∘ N) annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) increases of 3.7 to 11.6 ∘C compared to the pre-industrial period, with a multi-model mean (MMM) increase of 7.2 ∘C. The Arctic warming amplification ratio relative to global SAT anomalies in the ensemble ranges from 1.8 to 3.1 (MMM is 2.3). Sea ice extent anomalies range from −3.0 to −10.4×106 km2, with a MMM anomaly of −5.6×106 km2, which constitutes a decrease of 53 % compared to the pre-industrial period. The majority (11 out of 16) of models simulate summer sea-ice-free conditions (≤1×106 km2) in their mPWP simulation. The ensemble tends to underestimate SAT in the Arctic when compared to available reconstructions, although the degree of underestimation varies strongly between the simulations. The simulations with the highest Arctic SAT anomalies tend to match the proxy dataset in its current form better. The ensemble shows some agreement with reconstructions of sea ice, particularly with regard to seasonal sea ice. Large uncertainties limit the confidence that can be placed in the findings and the compatibility of the different proxy datasets. We show that while reducing uncertainties in the reconstructions could decrease the SAT data–model discord substantially, further improvements are likely to be found in enhanced boundary conditions or model physics. Lastly, we compare the Arctic warming in the mPWP to projections of future Arctic warming and find that the PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates greater Arctic amplification than CMIP5 future climate simulations and an increase instead of a decrease in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength compared to pre-industrial period. The results highlight the importance of slow feedbacks in equilibrium climate simulations, and that caution must be taken when using simulations of the mPWP as an analogue for future climate change.

Palaeoclimate simulations↗

Powder Bed Fusion Laser Beam Metals Additive Manufacturing: Process Monitoring Approaches for Qualification and Certification

The use of in-situ process monitoring is of interest to lower the cost of inspection for the qualification of powder bed fusion laser beam metal (PBF-LB/M) additively manufactured (AM) parts. Precise monitoring of the PBF-LB/M AM build process constitutes a multi-scale and multi-discipline task. There are several significant challenges to the in-situ approach: the synchronization of sensor signals to process steps; the physical interpretation and classification of sensor signals; managing very large datasets; and comparing the inputs with the observed monitoring signals. At NASA Langley Research Center, a configurable architecture additive testbed has been developed to monitor the build process with synchronized sensors. The philosophy and method adopted for the synchronization of the cameras with laser power and position throughout a complex PBF-LB/M AM build will be described. The synchronized in-situ monitoring signals are compared with ex-situ nondestructive inspection, x-ray computed tomography (XCT). Such comparisons permit a better understanding of how the sequential process actions of LPBF-AM can affect build quality. The multi-scale and complex process of printing additively manufactured (AM) parts can have unexpected, but predictable, build conditions that result in material microstructure variability. This presentation will describe an additive manufacturing model-based process metric (AM-PM) computational method that is a fully parallel reduced order modeling approach developed to evaluate the evolution of AM processes. This method couples the known sequence of the AM process with a physically informed nearest neighbors’ calculation to map the conditions of a part-scale build. The result is a map of the build that is derived directly from build files or in-situ process monitoring sensors. The methodology of the approach will be described and mapped to the porosity observed from XCT for a complex PBF-LB/M build. Such comparative results develop understanding of how the sequential process actions can affect the PBF-LB/M AM build quality and microstructure variability.

Laser Powder Bed Fusion↗

Haiti Agriculture: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Evaluate the Success of Reforestation Practices in Haiti

Haiti is one of the world’s most deforested and environmentally degraded countries. Over the past 30 years, the Haiti Reforestation Partnership (HRP) has provided resources, education, and expertise to support reforestation work in Haiti. The HRP has planted over 15 million trees through their partnership with Comprehensive Development Program (CODEP). However, they have yet to conduct a comprehensive analysis of forest stand survival. The NASA DEVELOP team partnered with the HRP to aid their future silvicultural decisions using satellite imagery. Through the creation of the Monitoring of Vegetation Presence (MVP) tool in Google Earth Engine, the team produced a time series showing trends in enhanced vegetation index (EVI) from 1984 to 2021, as well as a habitat suitability map using a general model for all tree species. These provided the partner with visuals to communicate their reforestation efforts and guidance on where to apply their future efforts. The team utilized Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Landsat 9 OLI-2 and Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI) vegetation indices as indicators of stand success over time. The team also incorporated WorldClim bioclimatic variables such as precipitation and temperature, Centre National de L’Information Geo-Spatiale (CNIGS) Airborne Lidar elevation, and ancillary datasets areas suitable for future reforestation efforts. Overall, the time series showed that the demonstration forest increased in EVI at a greater rate than the surrounding area and the habitat model suggested there are 49,000 hectares of suitable habitat for planting using slope, aspect and temperature as predictor variables.

Kelli Roberts↗

Preliminary Results of a U.S. Deep South Warm Season Deep Convective Initiation Modeling Experiment using NASA SPoRT Initialization Datasets for Operational National Weather Service Local Model Runs

The initiation of deep convection during the warm season is a forecast challenge in the relative high instability and low wind shear environment of the U.S. Deep South. Despite improved knowledge of the character of well known mesoscale features such as local sea-, bay- and land-breezes, observations show the evolution of these features fall well short in fully describing the location of first initiates. A joint collaborative modeling effort among the NWS offices in Mobile, AL, and Houston, TX, and NASA s Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center was undertaken during the 2012 warm season to examine the impact of certain NASA produced products on the Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System. The NASA products were: a 4-km Land Information System data, a 1-km sea surface temperature analysis, and a 4-km greenness vegetation fraction analysis. Similar domains were established over the southeast Texas and Alabama coastlines, each with a 9 km outer grid spacing and a 3 km inner nest spacing. The model was run at each NWS office once per day out to 24 hours from 0600 UTC, using the NCEP Global Forecast System for initial and boundary conditions. Control runs without the NASA products were made at the NASA SPoRT Center. The NCAR Model Evaluation Tools verification package was used to evaluate both the forecast timing and location of the first initiates, with a focus on the impacts of the NASA products on the model forecasts. Select case studies will be presented to highlight the influence of the products.

Medlin, Jeffrey M.↗

The Updated Umkehr Ozone Retrieval Algorithm and its Validation against Satellite Data

Improvements to the Umkehr ozone profile retrieval algorithm have been developed and are now being evaluated. The updated algorithm is able to simulate observations more accurately and provides data output that is easier to analyze. Among the new diagnostic capabilities that the updated algorithm provides is the averaging kernel (AK) method. The AK approach allows studying how the algorithm responds when a small perturbation is made in a particular layer of the atmosphere [Rodgers 1976, 1990]. We will use the AK method to define precisely what Umkehr should measure given a set of profiles measured by other platforms. This method allows us to compare trends and offsets in data more accurately than it has been done in the past. The updated Umkehr retrievals will be validated against SAGE II ozone profiles as well as SSBUV ozone profile data. We will discuss possible reasons for offset between data and differences in derived ozone profile trends. Considerable variability of the ozone profile within the 10-degree latitude envelope creates noise in the SAGE matching dataset and makes comparisons difficult. To eliminate this problem, the SAGE and Umkehr data had been previously de-seasonalized by subtracting the latitude/season dependent ozone climatology. However, the remaining noise in the ozone residuals was still considerably high for trend analysis and was attributed to longitude variability of SAGE sampling. The new ozone climatology (Labow, NASA) that has longitude dependent ozone variability will be used to minimize contribution of sampling noise in comparisons of satellite and ground station. The comparison of zenith-sky radiances (Umkehr N-value measurements) synthesized for a given set of SAGE profiles will be used to determine whether SAGE-derived N-values agree with the Umkehr-measured N-values. The instrumental effects will be discussed. Both the Umkehr data and SAGE II measurements will be analyzed for their information about ozone variability and loss and recovery rates at the mid- and upper (40 km) levels. The updated long-term Umkehr dataset can be used to provide high quality information for identifying signs of ozone recovery. The long Umkehr historical record can provide additional information for separating the dynamic and chemical mechanisms of depletion, and can help the community better understand climate change effects.

Petropavlovskikh, I.↗

The Ocean Colour Climate Change Initiative: II. Spatial and Temporal Homogeneity of Satellite Data Retrieval Due to Systematic Effects in Atmospheric Correction Processors

The established procedure to access the quality of atmospheric correction processors and their underlying algorithms is the comparison of satellite data products with related in-situ measurements. Although this approach addresses the accuracy of derived geophysical properties in a straight forward fashion, it is also limited in its ability to catch systematic sensor and processor dependent behaviour of satellite products along the scan-line, which might impair the usefulness of the data in spatial analyses. The Ocean Colour Climate Change Initiative (OC-CCI) aims to create an ocean colour dataset on a global scale to meet the demands of the ecosystem modelling community. The need for products with increasing spatial and temporal resolution that also show as little systematic and random errors as possible, increases. Due to cloud cover, even temporal means can be influenced by along-scanline artefacts if the observations are not balanced and effects cannot be cancelled out mutually. These effects can arise from a multitude of results which are not easily separated, if at all. Among the sources of artefacts, there are some sensor-specific calibration issues which should lead to similar responses in all processors, as well as processor-specific features which correspond with the individual choices in the algorithms. A set of methods is proposed and applied to MERIS data over two regions of interest in the North Atlantic and the South Pacific Gyre. The normalised water leaving reflectance products of four atmospheric correction processors, which have also been evaluated in match-up analysis, is analysed in order to find and interpret systematic effects across track. These results are summed up with a semi-objective ranking and are used as a complement to the match-up analysis in the decision for the best Atmospheric Correction (AC) processor. Although the need for discussion remains concerning the absolutes by which to judge an AC processor, this example demonstrates clearly, that relying on the match-up analysis alone can lead to misjudgement.

Ocean Colour↗