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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 667 records · Page 37
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Novel Data Driven Noise Emulation Framework using Deep Neural Network for Generating Synthetic PMU Measurements

Sensors play a critical role in supporting day-to-day grid operations and they are essential to operator’s decision-making process. Furthermore, sensors and sensor behaviors need to be emulated with grid simulations to perform modeling studies and to design cutting edge power systems applications. Ensuring the accurate behavior of these applications requires accurate emulation of sensors and pertinent signals. However, most grid simulators and modeling tools assume either zero error scenarios or simplistic noise models that may not always correlate to real-world sensors. To address the above issue, this work presents an initial study on the noise characteristics of phasor measurement units (PMUs), along with models for recreating their unique noise signatures. The proposed methods (both analytical and machine-learning-based) provide a substantial increase in a sensor’s model fidelity, a feature that can be leveraged by an end-user application to yield more accurate system representations. The proposed methods were then applied to micro PMU data from the EPFL microgrid campus to extract sensor noise profiles. This data was used to train a deep learning model, which was tested to emulate the noise characteristics present in actual signals. Based on the observed results and the employed data-driven methodology, the proposed methods may be adapted to replicate the behavior of other grid sensors and power new applications capable of detecting sensor degradation and eventual device failures in near real-time.

PMU, noise emulation, synthetic measurements, deep↗
DOE OSTI2021

Ensuring statistical reproducibility of ocean model simulations in the age of hybrid computing

Novel high performance computing systems that feature hybrid architectures require large scale code refactoring to unravel underlying exploitable parallelism. Such redesign can often be accompanied with machine-precision changes as the order of computation cannot always be maintained. For chaotic systems like climate models, these round-off level differences can grow rapidly. Systematic errors may also manifest initially as machine-precision differences. Isolating genuine round off level differences from such errors remains a challenge. Here, we apply two-sample equality of distribution tests to evaluate statistical reproducibility of the ocean model component of US Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). A 2-year control simulation ensemble is compared to a modified ensemble as a test case - after a known non-bit-for-bit change in a model component is introduced - to evaluate the null hypothesis that the two ensembles are statistically indistinguishable. To quantify the false negative rates of these tests, we conduct a formal power analysis using a targeted suite of short simulation ensembles. The ensemble suite contains several perturbed ensembles, each with a progressively different climate than the baseline ensemble - obtained by perturbing the magnitude of a single model tuning parameter, the Gent and McWilliams κ, in a controlled manner. The null hypothesis is evaluated for each of perturbed ensembles using these tests. The power analysis informs on the detection limits of the tests for given ensemble size allowing model developers to evaluate the impact of an introduced non-bit-for-bit change to the model.

Mahajan, Salil↗
DOE OSTI2024

Recovered supernova Ia rate from simulated LSST images

Aims.TheVera C. RubinObservatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will revolutionize time-domain astronomy by detecting millions of different transients. In particular, it is expected to increase the number of known type Ia supernovae (SN Ia) by a factor of 100 compared to existing samples up to redshift ∼1.2. Such a high number of events will dramatically reduce statistical uncertainties in the analysis of the properties and rates of these objects. However, the impact of all other sources of uncertainty on the measurement of the SN Ia rate must still be evaluated. The comprehension and reduction of such uncertainties will be fundamental both for cosmology and stellar evolution studies, as measuring the SN Ia rate can put constraints on the evolutionary scenarios of different SN Ia progenitors. Methods.We used simulated data from the Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) Data Challenge 2 (DC2) and LSST Data Preview 0 to measure the SN Ia rate on a 15 deg 2 region of the “wide-fast-deep” area. We selected a sample of SN candidates detected in difference images, associated them to the host galaxy with a specially developed algorithm, and retrieved their photometric redshifts. We then tested different light-curve classification methods, with and without redshift priors (albeit ignoring contamination from other transients, as DC2 contains only SN Ia). We discuss how the distribution in redshift measured for the SN candidates changes according to the selected host galaxy and redshift estimate. Results.We measured the SN Ia rate, analyzing the impact of uncertainties due to photometric redshift, host-galaxy association and classification on the distribution in redshift of the starting sample. We find that we are missing 17% of the SN Ia, on average, with respect to the simulated sample. As 10% of the mismatch is due to the uncertainty on the photometric redshift alone (which also affects classification when used as a prior), we conclude that this parameter is the major source of uncertainty. We discuss possible reduction of the errors in the measurement of the SN Ia rate, including synergies with other surveys, which may help us to use the rate to discriminate different progenitor models.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2026

A scalable variational method for estimating the latent infection-rate field of an outbreak

In this paper, we explore whether the infection-rate of a disease can serve as a robust monitoring variable in epidemiological surveillance algorithms. The infection-rate is dependent on population mixing patterns that do not vary erratically day-to-day; in contrast, daily case-counts used in contemporary surveillance algorithms are corrupted by reporting errors. The technical challenge lies in estimating the latent infection-rate from case-counts. Here we devise a Bayesian method to estimate the infection-rate across multiple adjoining areal units, and then use it, via an anomaly detector, to discern a change in epidemiological dynamics. We extend an existing model for estimating the infection-rate in an areal unit by incorporating a Markov random field model, so that we may estimate infection-rates across multiple areal units, while preserving spatial correlations observed in the epidemiological dynamics. To carry out the high-dimensional Bayesian inverse problem, we develop an implementation of mean-field variational inference specific to the infection model and integrate it with the random field model to incorporate correlations across counties. The method is tested on estimating the COVID-19 infection-rates across all 33 counties in New Mexico using data from the summer of 2020, and then employing them to detect the arrival of the Fall 2020 COVID-19 wave. We perform the detection using a temporal algorithm that is applied county-by-county. We also show how the infection-rate field can be used to cluster counties with similar epidemiological dynamics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evaluation of simulated HPGe detector efficiencies in OpenMC compared to MCNP

In late 2023, the open-source radiation transport code OpenMC introduced a pulse-height tally (PHT) feature, enabling users to track the total energy deposited by individual photons in OpenMC cells. This function represents an important improvement of the OpenMC code because it allows users to simulate the response function of a gamma detector without relying on closed-source alternatives. Despite this, limited work has been published evaluating OpenMC as a radiation transport code for simulating gamma spectroscopy experiments. This study attempts to demonstrate the usefulness of OpenMC in this space by directly comparing its PHT output to MCNP (a trusted industry-standard Monte Carlo code). In the first half of this study, a radiation transport experiment is described in which a detector with a complex internal geometry is exposed to various gamma-emitting isotopes ( 133 Ba, 137 Cs, and 60 Co) over a range of distances. The setup of this experiment was modeled in MCNP with sufficient detail to capture the efficiency characteristics of a high purity germanium (HPGe) detector for the primary gammas of each isotope. After good agreement between the MCNP model and experiment was achieved, an identical model was produced in OpenMC to allow direct comparison between the full energy peak (FEP) values produced in OpenMC and MCNP. The results show strong agreement between OpenMC and MCNP across the full range of tested energies, with each model’s FEP values typically within 2% of each other and most FEP areas within 4% of experimental data. Worse agreement was seen between the Monte Carlo codes and experiment below 300 keV (an expected result). For the 662 keV line of 137 Cs, both codes were found in poor agreement with experiment and each other over the full range of distances tested (possibly indicating an error with the 137 Cs experimental data). Ignoring the anomalous results of the 662 keV line, all other data show good qualitative and quantitative agreement between MCNP and OpenMC. This result demonstrates the accuracy of OpenMC’s PHT feature for spectroscopic applications in which detector efficiency is a primary concern.

07 - ISOTOPES AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Studying drought-induced forest mortality using high spatiotemporal resolution evapotranspiration data from thermal satellite imaging

Drought can have pervasive and wide-spread impacts to forest health, as evidenced in several severe events occurring over the recent decades. Extensive forest die-off due to drought can impair the ecological functioning of forests, impacting habitat, water yield and quality from forested lands, and altering forest fire dynamics and intensity. Satellite remote sensing provides an effective means for detecting and monitoring spatial patterns of forest mortality over large areas, exploiting free and open long-term image archives available at a range in spatial and temporal resolutions. While remotely sensed surface reflectances and vegetation indices have been widely used to study optical response of forest canopies to drought events, retrievals of evapotranspiration (ET) derived from thermal satellite imagery – particularly at resolutions approaching crown scale - can provide insights into cumulative tree stresses that can incite disease and trigger mortality. In this study, we applied a multi-sensor satellite data fusion approach to estimate daily 30-m resolution ET and an associated Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) to study drought-induced mortality in a temperate forest at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) site, located in the central United States. The study covered the period from 2010 to 2014, including an exceptional drought year of 2012. Modeled ET agreed well with eddy flux measurements from the MOFLUX tower, with average monthly relative errors of 15%. Plot-scale ESI, describing temporal anomalies in the ratio of actual-to-reference ET, was used as an index of relative forest health to investigate relationships between forest mortality and drought severity. ESI showed good agreement with observed predawn leaf water potential, especially during the drought year. Furthermore, plot-scale ESI was also correlated with the subsequent year's tree mortality, suggesting the importance of considering the forest health condition prior to drought when studying drought-induced forest impacts. This study demonstrates the utility of multi-year ET remote sensing data at the stand or plot scale as an indicator of forest health and as a predictor of future mortality due to drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Detection of surface water temperature variations of Mongolian lakes benefiting from the spatially and temporally gap-filled MODIS data

Lakes provide critical water resources for human activities and ecosystems, particularly in the Mongolian Plateau (MP), which is characterized by a dry climate and a harsh environment. As a region that is sensitive to anthropogenic warming, tracking lake surface water temperature (LSWT) changes in Mongolian lakes is crucial for understanding the consequences of a warming climate on lake ecosystems. However, the long-term monitoring of LSWT is restricted by the spatiotemporal gaps in the raw imagery of remote sensing-based land surface temperature (LST), e.g., the commonly used Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LST products. This study applied an improved gap-filling method by utilizing the discrete cosine transform-based penalized least squares (DCT-PLS) strategy in the spatial domain combined with the linear interpolation (LI) algorithm in the temporal domain. The method was applied to fill gaps in the LSWT imagery of 12 representative lakes across MP. The randomly sampled high-quality MODIS LSWT values in the spatial and temporal domains were excavated as false data gaps and considered “virtual true” validation datasets. The spatial validation results showed that the estimated LSWT for all the lake cases were comparable with the “virtual true” LSWT values, with the average values of the coefficient of determination, mean absolute error, mean square error, and root mean square error being 0.98, 0.38 °C, 0.45 °C, and 0.59 °C, respectively. Meanwhile, the error of nighttime LSWT results was relatively lower than that of daytime LSWT. For temporal interpolation validation, the LI algorithm exhibited relatively better performance and could more objectively indicate the variation in LSWT. Benefiting from the spatially and temporally well-constrained data, we analyzed the interannual and intra-annual change characteristics of the LSWTs of the 12 lakes. The long-term variations of annual and seasonal mean LSWTs in the 12 selected lakes exhibited no evident trends in 2000–2020, while presented apparent interannual fluctuations. The slight changes in the average LSWTs of the 12 selected lakes were in excellent synchronization with the surrounding LST derived from the reanalysis datasets, confirming the widely reported phenomenon of “global warming hiatus” that occurred in the early 21st century. This study improves the understanding of the LSWT variations in Mongolian lakes in response to global climate change. It has the potential to provide an effective approach for monitoring LSWT changes in other large-scale studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Online and Offline Data Quality Monitoring for the Mu2e Calorimeter

This thesis presents the design, implementation, and validation of a calorimeter Data Quality Monitoring (DQM) toolchain for the Mu2e experiment at Fermilab. Mu2e searches for charged lepton flavor violation via coherent muon-to-electron conversion in the field of an aluminum nucleus, $\mu^- Al \rightarrow e^-Al$, a process whose observation would constitute clear evidence of physics beyond the Standard Model. Achieving target sensitivity requires stringent control of detector performance and data integrity during acquisition, as subtle issues in readout configuration, data formatting, or electronics behavior can compromise reconstruction and bias downstream analyzes. To address these challenges, this work develops a multi-layer DQM approach spanning both raw data validation and reconstructed digi-level diagnostics. At the low level, a fragment analysis component performs word- and bit-field decoding of calorimeter readout blocks, enabling sanity checks of the expected structure and producing detailed error and integrity statistics useful for commissioning and troubleshooting. At the digi level, the CaloDigiDQM analyzer is implemented within the art framework and transforms each CaloDigiCollection into a structured hierarchy of ROOT histograms designed for fast drill-down diagnostics. The module generates coherent monitoring views at global, disk, board, and channel granularity, including occupancy, waveform-derived features (baseline, RMS, peak amplitude and position), and left-right sensor consistency metrics. Detector-aware channel-to-electronics mapping is performed through the conditions system (CaloDAQMap), ensuring that diagnostics remain aligned with hardware identifiers used in operations. For end-to-end testing without reliance on live DAQ data, a synthetic CaloDigi producer is developed to generate realistic waveforms with controlled noise and pulse shapes. The resulting system supports both offline ROOT-file production and online operation, including optional histogram streaming through otsdaq via ots::HistoSender. This toolchain provides a practical and scalable foundation for calorimeter commissioning and stable data collection, enabling early detection of anomalies and reducing operational risk for Mu2e.

Vakulenko, Mark [Drew U.] (ORCID:0009000276197818)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Galactic ArchaeoLogIcaL ExcavatiOns (GALILEO) II. t-SNE portrait of local fossil relics and structures

Based on high-quality Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) DR17 and Gaia DR3 data for 1742 red giants stars within 5 kpc of the Sun and not rotating with the Galactic disk (V φ < 100 km s -1 ), we used the nonlinear technique of unsupervised analysis t-Distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding (t-SNE) to detect coherent structures in the space of ten chemical-abundance ratios: [Fe/H], [O/Fe], [Mg/Fe], [Si/Fe], [Ca/Fe], [C/Fe], [N/Fe], [Al/Fe], [Mn/Fe], and [Ni/Fe]. Additionally, we obtained orbital parameters for each star using the nonaxisymmetric gravitational potential GravPot16. Seven structures are detected, including Splash, Gaia-Sausage-Enceladus (GSE), the high-α heated-disk population, N-C-O peculiar stars, and inner disk-like stars, plus two other groups that did not match anything previously reported in the literature, here named Galileo 5 and Galileo 6 (G5 and G6). These two groups overlap with Splash in [Fe/H], with G5 having a lower metallicity than G6, and they are both between GSE and Splash in the [Mg/Mn] versus [Al/Fe] plane, with G5 being in the α-rich in situ locus and G6 on the border of the α-poor in situ one. Nonetheless, their low [Ni/Fe] hints at a possible ex situ origin. Their orbital energy distributions are between Splash and GSE, with G5 being slightly more energetic than G6. We verified the robustness of all the obtained groups by exploring a large range of t-SNE parameters, applying it to various subsets of data, and also measuring the effect of abundance errors through Monte Carlo tests.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

StructuredFuzzer: Fuzzing Structured Text-Based Control Logic Applications

Rigorous testing methods are essential for ensuring the security and reliability of industrial controller software. Fuzzing, a technique that automatically discovers software bugs, has also proven effective in finding software vulnerabilities. Unsurprisingly, fuzzing has been applied to a wide range of platforms, including programmable logic controllers (PLCs). However, current approaches, such as coverage-guided evolutionary fuzzing implemented in the popular fuzzer American Fuzzy Lop Plus Plus (AFL++), are often inadequate for finding logical errors and bugs in PLC control logic applications. They primarily target generic programming languages like C/C++, Java, and Python, and do not consider the unique characteristics and behaviors of PLCs, which are often programmed using specialized programming languages like Structured Text (ST). Furthermore, these fuzzers are ill suited to deal with complex input structures encapsulated in ST, as they are not specifically designed to generate appropriate input sequences. This renders the application of traditional fuzzing techniques less efficient on these platforms. To address this issue, this paper presents a fuzzing framework designed explicitly for PLC software to discover logic bugs in applications written in ST specified by the IEC 61131-3 standard. The proposed framework incorporates a custom-tailored PLC runtime and a fuzzer designed for the purpose. We demonstrate its effectiveness by fuzzing a collection of ST programs that were crafted for evaluation purposes. We compare the performance against a popular fuzzer, namely, AFL++. The proposed fuzzing framework demonstrated its capabilities in our experiments, successfully detecting logic bugs in the tested PLC control logic applications written in ST. On average, it was at least 83 times faster than AFL++, and in certain cases, for example, it was more than 23,000 times faster.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Self-Assembly of Accumulated Sphingolipids into Cytotoxic Fibrils in Globoid Cell Leukodystrophy and Their Inhibition by Small Molecules In Vitro

Globoid cell leukodystrophy (GLD) is a rare hereditary inborn error of metabolism due to recessive mutations that cause loss of function of the enzyme galactosylceramidase (GALC). This results in the accumulation of the sphingolipids galactosylceramide (GalCer) and galactosylsphingosine (GalSph) in the lysosomes of neuronal cells. The accumulated GalCer and GalSph in cerebral macrophages of GLD patients are neurotoxic to oligodendrocytes and Schwann cells, leading to demyelination in the nervous system. The disease typically presents with infantile onset in the first six months of life and death by age 2. Here, we identified a supramolecular structure of GalCer and GalSph that may contribute to GLD pathology. Using biophysical assays commonly used for studying proteinaceous amyloids, e.g., amyloidspecific dyes, microscopical imaging, and a series of analytical methods (FTIR, PXRD, and SAXS), we demonstrate that both GalCer and GalSph can self-assemble in vitro into highly organized fibrils reminiscent of fibrils of amyloidogenic proteins. These fibrils exhibit significant cytotoxicity to both neuronal and oligodendroglial cells. Using an inhibitor of the GALC enzyme in cell culture to mimic the GLD pathophysiology, we could detect the accumulation of these fibrils in cells. We also observed that small molecules, which are bona fide inhibitors of proteinaceous amyloids, effectively mitigated the formation of the GalCer and GalSph fibrillar structures in vitro. Finally, the small molecule ameliorated the cytotoxic effects of the sphingolipid fibrils in SH-SY5Y cells, suggesting a potential avenue for therapeutic intervention in GLD orphan disease.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Intercomparison of Aerosol Instrumental Responses Using AEROTRAK, SMPS, and APS in a Simulated Building

In this work, three aerosol instruments were intercompared by using data collected from field campaigns in a simulated building environment during the last quarter of 2020 from October to December at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The three aerosol instruments—AeroTrak Model 9110, Scanning Mobility Particle Spectrometer (SMPS) 3080L + 3025A, and Aerodynamic Particle Sizer (APS) 3320—were manufactured by TSI Inc. to perform in situ measurements of particle number concentration in the air. These instruments were co-located in one room in which an aerosol generator was used to produce a defined aerosol population for the instruments to sample and detect in each campaign. The SMPS measured aerosol particles with diameters from 0.01 to 0.7 µm, APS measured aerosol particles with diameters from 0.5 to 20 µm, and AeroTrak measured aerosol particles with diameters from 0.1 to 10 µm. The results suggest that although AeroTrak is fast and easy to use, it does not provide measurements comparable with those obtained by SMPS and APS. The differences in particle counts were orders of magnitude in size (i.e., the AeroTrak data were unreasonably small in the tested scenarios). The results clearly indicate that AeroTrak should not be used in ambient applications in which the level of particle concentration is expected to be high. This would cause difficulty to a campaign in which the dilution factor is unknow a priori. The high particle concentration could also lead to an erroneous aerosol size distribution (e.g., a bimodal size distribution was measured as opposed to a single-mode one). The number concentration limit that AeroTrak is expected to run reliably (i.e., with a counting coincidence error less than ±10%) is approximately three to four per cubic centimeter. This suggests that the instrument is best used in a clean room environment, not in an ambient or indoor application, such as the Flexible Research Platform campaigns.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Automated construction of clear-sky dictionary from all-sky imager data

All-sky imagers (ASIs) have significant promise as scalable sensors for short-term solar irradiance forecasting. Many of the current computational techniques that use ASIs for this purpose rely on collections of clear-sky images indexed by time of day, solar angle, or both, called clear-sky dictionaries (CSDs). These CSDs act as baselines against which images can be compared to locate and classify clouds within the image frame. CSDs are often compiled by hand, where individuals visually inspect collections of images one at a time to find clear-sky images. This process is not scalable, and it is prone to error. This paper proposes an automated, nonparametric alternative that uses the principles of digital image processing to find clear-sky images within a set of images taken over several days. We use ground-truth measurements of the clearness index to assess the performance of our method, and we show that the images it selects accurately correspond to clear-sky images. We also compare our proposal, which is nonparametric, with a state-of-the-art parametric method. The numerical results indicate that the performance of the method proposed here is superior.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Monitoring installation of partially occluded subassemblies in modular construction factories using BIM, ray tracing, and computer vision

Modular and offsite construction methods are being increasingly adopted due to the advantages they offer in terms of project completion time, quality, and energy-efficiency. Despite these advantages, the current state of monitoring systems in modular construction factories highly relies on labor-intensive, subjective, and error-prone observational methods. A large body of research has aimed to automate the monitoring process using an array of sensors, such as IMUs and RFIDs, during the past two decades. Recently, computer vision-based methods have gained increasing interest as a non-intrusive technology to monitor the process inside modular construction factories. However, partial occlusion challenges have impeded their practical application on a large scale. This challenge is specifically important for monitoring the installation of subassemblies since they can obstruct the view of the monitoring camera, especially those that enable long-term monitoring like closed-circuit television (CCTV) fixed-view surveillance cameras. Here, this paper aims to address this challenge by proposing a novel computer vision-based method to monitor the installation of new subassemblies inside modular factories in highly occluded scenes. The proposed methodology identifies the subassemblies in the CCTV video footage using computer vision, analyzes the occlusions using BIM and ray casting techniques, and estimates the progress of assembly by comparing the BIM model with the detected subassemblies in the video. The proposed methodology was successfully validated on surveillance videos captured from a volumetric modular construction factory in the U.S., achieving 93% accuracy in identifying the installation of subassemblies. The results from this research show that the integration of BIM and computer vision is a promising method for monitoring the installation processes inside modular factories under severe occlusion.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

A 24-Channel Digitizer With a JESD204B-Compliant Serial Interface for High-Speed Detectors

In this report a 24-channel application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) for the readout of high-speed CMOS active pixel sensors for charged particle detection is presented. The chip comprises 24 preamplifiers, 24 distinct 12-bit, 25 MSPS Pipelined analog-to-digital converters (ADCs) with self-calibration, an internal phase-locked loop (PLL), and a 3 Gbps serial interface that conforms to the JESD204B standard. To simplify interfacing with a variety of sensors, the ASIC also includes an automatic offset calibration loop. The high level of integration of the ASIC reduces overall system cost and area, and exploiting the signal characteristics of the image sensor allows the ADC to be optimized for reduced power dissipation. The use of an integrated serializer and an industry standard protocol simplifies integration of the ASIC into a complete camera system. The ASIC, called the High-Speed Image Preprocessor Targeted for Electron Readout, or HIPSTER, with a die area of 64.26 mm 2 , is packaged in a 480-ball grid array (BGA) and is fabricated in 180-nm CMOS technology. HIPSTER achieves typical differential nonlinearity (DNL) < 0.55 LSB, input-referred thermal noise of $114.5 μV-rms, and a bit error rate (BER) of better than 10-14. The power dissipation is 98 mW/channel.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ch3MS-RF: a random forest model for chemical characterization and improved quantification of unidentified atmospheric organics detected by chromatography–mass spectrometry techniques

Abstract. The chemical composition of ambient organic aerosols plays a critical role in driving their climate and health-relevant properties and holds important clues to the sources and formation mechanisms of secondary aerosol material. In most ambient atmospheric environments, this composition remains incompletely characterized, with the number of identifiable species consistently outnumbered by those that have no mass spectral matches in the literature or the National Institute of Standards and Technology/National Institutes of Health/Environmental Protection Agency (NIST/NIH/EPA) mass spectral databases, making them nearly impossible to definitively identify. This creates significant challenges in utilizing the full analytical capabilities of techniques which separate and generate spectra for complex environmental samples. In this work, we develop the use of machine learning techniques to quantify and characterize novel, or unidentifiable, organic material. This work introduces Ch3MS-RF (Chemical Characterization by Chromatography–Mass Spectrometry Random Forest Modeling), an open-source, R-based software tool, for efficient machine-learning-enabled characterization of compounds separated in chromatography–mass spectrometry applications but not identifiable by comparison to mass spectral databases. A random forest model is trained and tested on a known 130 component representative external standard to predict the response factors of novel environmental organics based on position in volatility–polarity space and mass spectrum, enabling the reproducible, efficient, and optimized quantification of novel environmental species. Quantification accuracy on a reserved 20 % test set randomly split from the external standard compound list indicates that random forest modeling significantly outperforms the commonly used methods in both precision and accuracy, with a median response factor percent error of −2 %, for modeled response factors, compared to > 15 %, for typically used proxy assignment-based methods. Chemical properties modeling, evaluated on the same reserved 20 % test set and an extrapolation set of species identified in ambient organic aerosol samples collected in the Amazon rainforest, also demonstrate robust performance. Extrapolation set property prediction mean absolute errors for carbon number, oxygen to carbon ratio (O : C), average carbon oxidation state (OSc‾), and vapor pressure are 1.8, 0.15, 0.25, and 1.0 (log(atm)), respectively. Extrapolation set out-of-sample R2 for all properties modeled are above 0.75, with the exception of vapor pressure. While predictive performance for vapor pressure is less robust compared to the other chemical properties modeled, random-forest-based modeling was significantly more accurate than other commonly used methods of vapor pressure prediction, decreasing the mean vapor pressure prediction error to 0.24 (log(atm)) from 0.55 (log(atm)) (chromatography-based vapor pressure prediction) and 1.2 (log(atm)) (chemical formula-based vapor pressure prediction). The random forest model significantly advances an untargeted analysis of the full scope of chemical speciation yielded by two-dimensional gas chromatography (GCxGC-MS) techniques and can be applied to gas chromatography coupled with electron ionization mass spectrometry (GC-MS) as well. It enables the accurate estimation of key chemical properties commonly utilized in the atmospheric chemistry community, which may be used to more efficiently identify important tracers for further individual analysis and to characterize compound populations uniquely formed under specific ambient conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Uniform Methods Project: Smart Thermostat Evaluation Protocol

A smart thermostat is an internet-connected device that controls home heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) equipment and can automatically adjust temperature set points to optimize performance and achieve energy savings. Smart thermostat features often include two way communication, occupancy detection (such as geofencing and occupancy sensors), schedule learning, and seasonal optimization algorithms. Smart thermostats can control most conventional HVAC systems, including central air conditioners, heat pumps, and forced air furnaces. Several types of residential utility programs offer smart thermostats as replacements measures. Working with smart thermostat vendors, utilities can offer separate optimization programs to produce energy savings beyond those achieved by installing a smart thermostat. From an evaluation perspective, smart thermostat programs have several noteworthy features. First, the energy savings from a smart thermostat may change over the life of the device. As a smart thermostat is connected to the internet, original equipment manufacturers can update the thermostat software to improve the thermostat's energy efficiency. Likewise, users can adjust the thermostat settings and schedules over time in response to changes in weather, thermal comfort, energy prices, or preferences for energy efficiency. Additionally, many thermostat manufacturers offer seasonal optimization programs that recommend changes or make minor, automated adjustments to the thermostat settings to improve energy efficiency. These opt-in programs are now standard offerings for many smart thermostat manufacturers and provided at no additional cost to users. The potential for software updates and continuous optimization and the evolving nature of user interactions mean future energy savings may differ from first-year savings and the energy savings of smart thermostats may need to be evaluated more than once. Second, smart thermostats often have small unit energy savings relative to a home's total energy consumption, especially in comparison to whole- home retrofit programs. This can make it difficult to detect the smart thermostat savings in billing or advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) meter consumption data. For example, as cooling loads in many regions average about 20% of annual electricity consumption, smart thermostat savings of 10% of cooling energy use would equate to a 2% reduction in home electricity consumption. Evaluators should use regression analysis of whole-home billing consumption or advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) meter consumption data to evaluate smart thermostat savings because, as explained at greater length below , these data are usually available to evaluators and regression can control for the impacts of weather and other potentially confounding factors on a home's energy consumption. Finally, as with other energy efficiency programs, participation in smart thermostat programs is self-selective. As discussed at greater length below , smart thermostat participants tend to be, among other things, younger, higher-income, and more likely to adopt electric vehicles (EVs) and internet connected devices than nonparticipants. These differences are often unobservable to the evaluator and correlated with a home's energy consumption, creating the potential for bias in estimating savings. Due to the small unit savings of thermostats, errors and biases from self-selection that may not be very consequential when evaluating a whole- home retrofits (e.g., ±2% of home electricity consumption) can have a major impact when evaluating the savings and cost-effectiveness of smart thermostat programs. A percentage point change in the estimated savings could affect the cost-effectiveness of a program. This means it is important for evaluators to assess and to minimize the potential for error from selection bias in estimating smart thermostat program savings. The Uniform Methods Project provides model protocols for determining energy savings and demand reductions that result from specific energy efficiency measures implemented through state and utility programs. In most cases, the measure protocols are based on a particular option identified by the International Performance Verification and Measurement Protocol ; however, this work provides a more detailed approach to implementing that option. Each chapter is written by technical experts in collaboration with their peers, reviewed by industry experts, and subject to public review and comment. The UMP protocols can be used by utilities, program administrators, public utility commissions, evaluators, and other stakeholders for both program planning and evaluation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantitative evaluations of subtropical westerly jet simulations over East Asia based on multiple CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCMs

As a salient feature of the Asian monsoon system, the East Asian subtropical westerly jet (EASWJ) exerts significant impacts on weather and climate changes in China and even throughout East Asia. In this paper, we applied a new self-adaptive algorithm to detect the EASWJ, identify its boundaries, and then represent its characteristics by defining three indices: the intensity index, meridional displacement index, and width index. Compared to the reanalysis data, we carried out a comprehensive, objective, and quantitative EASWJ evaluation using historical experiments from multiple global climate models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6). The results show that the multimodel ensemble mean (MME) of both CMIP5 and CMIP6 can simulate the characteristics of winter EASWJ well. While for the other three seasons, the MME of both phase models underestimate the 200-hPa zonal wind (U200) strength in the jet coverage area and overestimate the U200 outside the jet area, such simulation results weaken the meridional shear of the wind field. The EASWJ simulations from the CMIP5 GCMs had no consistent intensity or location characteristic tendencies, and most CMIP5 GCMs tended to simulate relatively wide-coverage jets. In contrast, most CMIP6 GCMs are inclined to simulate significantly weaker, wider, and more-northward jets. Compared to the predecessors in CMIP5, about half of CMIP6 GCMs significantly minimized the jet intensity bias, but remarkable errors were still observed in their jet location and coverage representations. Furthermore, the comparative analysis performed by classifying models based on their evaluated simulation results suggested that the simulated performance of the meridional temperature gradient was important for capturing the EASWJ characteristics. Further in-depth study of the causes of model differences is warranted to improve simulation results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗