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ARC Software Validation Work for the FFTF Reactor

Extensive efforts have been carried out at ANL for the verification and validation of the Argonne Reactor Codes (ARC) software package currently used for the design of Versatile Test Reactor (VTR). The ARC software package consists of steady state neutronics and thermal hydraulics modeling capabilities which are being used by the VTR program to develop most of the VTR reactor design details which will be part of the licensing application. It is anticipated that this software will continue to be used for the design work and for initial operations although additional software may be introduced at a later time. The validation work was focused primarily on obtaining validation data consistent with VTR and usable for the ARC software. Because no critical facilities or operating fast spectrum reactors are available to do experiments for the VTR, the next best option is to identify historical experimental data that can be used as validation data. Early on in VTR, the ZPPR-15 set of experiments was identified as good validation data because of 1) the availability and quality of the data, 2) existing staff that are already familiar with the experimental machine and measurements, 3) most of the ZPPR-15 loadings of interest have already been processed into ARC models, and 4) a full uncertainty quantification has already been done for several loadings of ZPPR-15. The FFTF startup and operations data was identified as the most consistent reactor type that has validation data usable for VTR. Finally, the EBR-II fuel depletion measurements were identified as the best available validation data for VTR. It is important to note that both the FFTF and EBR-II reactors typically come with higher uncertainties than the ZPPR. In the frame of the discussed verification and validation efforts, the present document discusses the analysis of selected FFTF measurements included in the benchmark specifications of the International Reactor Physics Experiment (IRPhE) handbook. The FFTF reactor core configurations from the benchmark specification are presented in Section 2. The analysis is performed with the use of the ARC code suite available at ANL for fast reactor studies and is discussed in Section 3. The reactor parameters from the benchmark include criticality, neutron spectra, effective delayed neutron spectra, control rod worth, isothermal temperature coefficient and low energy gamma-ray spectra. The calculated values and the comparison with the experimental data is discussed in Sections 4 to 9 for each considered reactor parameter. Finally, conclusions are presented in Section 10.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

National Modeling of Geothermal District Energy Systems with Ambient-Temperature Loops Using dGeo

Geothermal district energy systems (DES) with ambient-temperature loops, also known as thermal energy networks, are one option for decarbonizing space heating and cooling loads. Geothermal fifth-generation DES include an "ambient" temperature thermal loop that connects heat pumps at each building with thermal balancing sources such as geothermal borehole fields. Heating and cooling are provided via a water-source heat pump at each end-user. This project seeks to analyze the nationwide potential for ambient-temperature loop districts by creating a new module within the Distributed Geothermal Market Demand Model (dGeo). dGeo is an agent-based modeling tool for distributed geothermal resources; it can investigate potential on a nationwide or statewide scale using geospatial data for all 50 states and thermal demands for existing buildings. This process allows for high-level estimates of technical and economic potential for ambient-temperature loop districts across the United States. A lookup table was created using GHEDesigner to size borehole fields for different thermal loads and ground conditions experienced across the country. A cost and financing structure, along with incentives, were applied. Cost estimates include costs for the distribution network, borehole field installation and operation, and circulation pump operation, while savings are calculated based on energy bills for building owners (agents). This newly developed module can be used for assessing which areas of the country have the highest potential for agent benefits from ambient-temperature loop installation and assess the impact of future cost and price scenarios. Initial results for statewide analysis (for Vermont) and nationwide (for United States) are provided. Future work includes expanding the module to consider mixed residential and commercial districts as well as evaluating multiple cost scenarios.

ambient-temperature loop↗

Nuclear modules for space electric propulsion

Analysis of interplanetary cargo and piloted missions requires calculations of the performances and masses of subsystems to be integrated in a final design. In a preliminary and scoping stage the designer needs to evaluate options iteratively by using fast computer simulations. The Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has been involved in the development of models and calculational procedures for the analysis (neutronic and thermal hydraulic) of power sources for nuclear electric propulsion. The nuclear modules will be integrated into the whole simulation of the nuclear electric propulsion system. The vehicles use either a Brayton direct-conversion cycle, using the heated helium from a NERVA-type reactor, or a potassium Rankine cycle, with the working fluid heated on the secondary side of a heat exchanger and lithium on the primary side coming from a fast reactor. Given a set of input conditions, the codes calculate composition. dimensions, volumes, and masses of the core, reflector, control system, pressure vessel, neutron and gamma shields, as well as the thermal hydraulic conditions of the coolant, clad and fuel. Input conditions are power, core life, pressure and temperature of the coolant at the inlet of the core, either the temperature of the coolant at the outlet of the core or the coolant mass flow and the fluences and integrated doses at the cargo area. Using state-of-the-art neutron cross sections and transport codes, a database was created for the neutronic performance of both reactor designs. The free parameters of the models are the moderator/fuel mass ratio for the NERVA reactor and the enrichment and the pitch of the lattice for the fast reactor. Reactivity and energy balance equations are simultaneously solved to find the reactor design. Thermalhydraulic conditions are calculated by solving the one-dimensional versions of the equations of conservation of mass, energy, and momentum with compressible flow.

Difilippo, F. C.↗

Comparative Analysis of HEATNETS for Geothermal Network Performance: Preprint

Thermal energy networks (TENs), also known as 5th generation district energy systems, or more specifically geothermal networks when exchanging heat with geothermal boreholes, are an important technology for decarbonization. In these networks an ambient loop connects buildings and thermal sources, such as a borehole field, to exchange energy and maintain a desired loop temperature. Water-source heat pumps are used at the buildings to connect to the ambient or thermal loop to meet to the building heating and cooling loads and maintain comfort. A semi-transient, reduced-order technical model and techno-economic model, called HEATNETS, has been developed at NREL that captures the flow of energy around a TEN. In this work, a comparison of the HEATNETS technical model and a well-known coding platform used for modeling geothermal networks, TRNSYS, has been completed for a proposed geothermal network as a verification process. Hourly data provided from the TRNSYS simulation included building loads, pumping power, heat pump power, temperature entering and leaving the borehole field, and mass flow rates. The hourly borehole temperatures were used to create a linear regression model utilized in HEATNETS to estimate the borehole field heat exchange. The building loads and mass flow rates were direct inputs to HEATNETS while the pumping power, heat pump power, borehole temperatures, and coefficients of performance were all simulated and calculated by HEATNETS, allowing for direct comparison of the thermal energy transfer, rather than also comparing control systems responses. HEATNETS considers the full process from design inputs to economic outputs and can provide modeling options for high-level initial system design and operational optimization. This study shows that HEATNETS, while not intended to replace other modeling tools, can be a unique modeling tool for the performance of a full geothermal network system.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Trade-off Analysis of Operational Technologies to Advance Cyber Resilience through Automated and Autonomous Response to Threats

The advancement of cyber resilience requires a preliminary stage of characterizing the trade-off space of mitigation options and how these might affect the stability and determinism of an operational technology (OT). This first step will set the stage for the proper cyber-secure and cyber-resilient design and confirm the affects that can be considered and approved by the OT and the security groups. To provide a baseline for this discussion, this paper provides a consideration of the cyberphysical interactions, possible mitigation steps against certain attacks and their corresponding affects that lend to the security design planning and evaluation process. As an integral part of the proposed scheme this work introduces the concept of systemwide fuzzer, i.e., a tool that manipulates the system state in an effort to determine mitigation response sequences that minimize detriments and maximize benefit in accordance with specified operational requirements.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Preliminary Analysis of Nuclear-Powered Data Center Scenarios

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the potential for nuclear energy to meet the growing energy demands of data centers (DCs). It evaluates the technical, economic, and socio-environmental implications of coupling Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) with DCs, providing initial responses to several key research questions: What is the potential increased energy demand from DCs in the U.S., in the short, medium and long term? The U.S. is experiencing a rapid increase in energy demand from DCs, with projections indicating a total increase of 24-74 GWy(e) by 2028. Meeting this demand with nuclear energy would require 27–85 GWe of installed capacity. While this surge is expected to slow in the long term, the DC industry needs reliable, scalable, and clean energy sources. How much nuclear capacity can be deployed to meet DC demand and in which timeframe? Several pathways for increasing nuclear capacity were identified, including uprates, restarts of recently retired reactors, power purchase agreements with existing fleet, and new construction. Approximately 20‒28 GWe of nuclear capacity could be dedicated to DCs by the early 2030s. How much High Assay Low Enriched Uranium (HALEU) would be needed to support some nuclear deployment scenarios for DCs? Meeting the deployment targets announced by Google and Amazon for the Kairos Power Fluoride-Salt-Cooled High-Temperature Reactor or KP-FHR (~500 MWe by 2035) and the Xe-100 (~1 GWe by 2040), respectively, requires ramping up 19.75% enriched HALEU production to ~6 t/yr by 2040. What types of nuclear energy/DC coupling options exist, and what are the different benefits/challenges? Five coupling options were analyzed, ranging from grid-connected configurations to colocated, behind-the-meter setups. Key design considerations include the proximity to high- and/or medium-voltage transmission lines, the desired internal fault tolerance, and the sources of alternative/backup power during outages. Each coupling option offers unique benefits and challenges in terms of reliability, system costs, regulation, timeline, etc. A list of NPP/DC deployment scenarios was developed, considering existing or newly built NPP or DC projects. Colocated DCs with new small modular reactors or large reactors on greenfield and brownfield sites are the focus of this report. What types of reactors, especially what size, may be incentivized by DCs? Reactor sizing optimization revealed that the ideal reactor size and number of units depend on DC demand, coupling configurations defined in this report, and other economic factors. Larger reactors are preferred for high-demand DCs and grid-connected systems, while larger number of smaller reactors are better suited for DC configurations without grid backup. Which sites may be compatible with co-located nuclear-powered DCs? Siting those projects is a complicated evaluation factoring local water resources, grid connection availability and reliability, IT infrastructure, local work force, proximity to population zones, etc. For this effort greenfield and brownfield sites such as retired coal-fired plants were used to evaluate this question. This evaluation is not meant to recommend any particular site but it highlights key siting criteria and demonstrates large-scale site availability. What are the socio-economic impacts of co-located nuclear-powered DCs? Those projects generate substantial economic benefits to the local economy, particularly in urban settings. Hyperscale DCs colocated with nuclear power plants (sized around 1 GW of power) can create nearly 1,700 jobs for annual operations and more than 7,300 jobs among the supply chain and local businesses as a result of increased household spending. Rural projects also provide significant benefits, but at lower magnitudes compared to urban deployments.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

The pursuit of net-positive sustainability for industrial decarbonization with hybrid energy systems

We report signatories of the Paris Agreement are set to miss their climate targets. The net-zero pledges announced to date across many countries and private industries are insufficient to achieve carbon neutrality, which requires implementation of far-reaching and significantly scaled-up climate-positive actions. All technology options that pertain to deep decarbonization and carbon removal must be part of the mitigation portfolio. Transformative action plans must be established in which every individual/organization around the globe is an actor of changes in relation to net-zero goals. Such plans must involve governmental policy support but also encourage voluntary efforts to boost innovations, investments, initiatives, and behavioral changes. Recognition of these efforts is made quantifiable with the concepts of carbon handprint and net positivity. This paper presents a carbon handprint perspective on characterizing the environmental benefits of hybrid energy systems (HESs)—a widely applicable solution to cleaner production leveraging the capabilities of a portfolio of low-carbon energy sources—that provide heat and electricity to industrial processes. First, the carbon handprint and net positivity concepts and their calculation approach are introduced. The state of the art of HES-enabled industrial cogeneration is then surveyed, and the greenhouse gas emission intensities of different energy sources that power HESs are compared. Next, drawing on a case study about a US chemical facility's voluntary initiative to explore replacing its fossil fuel–based cogeneration infrastructure with a clean energy–generated HES, several technically viable scenarios are evaluated—especially those with small modular nuclear reactors—to illustrate how the positive-thinking handprint approach helps encourage and inform the search for widespread influence pathways in pursuit of net-positive sustainability. Finally, current knowledge gaps in the case study are identified, and opportunities to scale up the proposed handprint-based analysis are outlined with consideration of an expanded role of HESs in fulfilling climate objectives.It is envisioned that like-minded decision makers in the industry sector and beyond will adopt this perspective and act synergistically to enhance their environmental stewardship through voluntary actions and make greater contributions to the planet's climate future.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Preliminary Techno-Economic Assessment of Gas Switching Reforming (GSR) of Natural Gas for Pure Hydrogen Production and Power Generation with Integrated CO2 Capture

The increasing demand for hydrogen and the CO2 intensity of natural gas (NG) reforming motivate the development of low-carbon-emission hydrogen production technologies. Gas Switching Reforming (GSR) is an advanced auto-thermal reforming technology that produces hydrogen or syngas from natural gas. It integrates inherent CO2 capture by utilizing a specialized oxygen carrier in a single fluidized bed reactor, eliminating the need for complex, energy-intensive post-combustion separation. GSR technology builds upon Chemical Looping Reforming (CLR), an experimentally proven technology with strong potential for scaling up. In this study, select oxygen carriers (OC) (NiO/Al2O3, Fe2O3-CeO2/Al2O3, and magnetite) were tested in methane steam reforming in a fixed bed reactor to determine their relative reactivities under relevant conditions for GSR (800 °C, 7 bar total pressure). Process models were then developed to perform techno-economic analysis (TEA) of GSR for hydrogen production (GSR-H₂) and a combined cycle (GSR-CC) in which high-purity H₂ is fired in a gas turbine to produce electricity. Operating at 10 bar and 1100 °C and with the additional recovery steps implemented increased H₂ production by ~30% and improved efficiency relative to prior studies. For GSR-H₂, the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) is 1.61–1.64 $/kg-H₂, competitive with a reference SMR case, though operating and maintenance costs are higher due to increased electricity demand. GSR-CC has a significantly higher levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) than its reference NGCC (natural gas combined cycle) plant, suggesting it is less competitive; however, increasing production scale could make it more attractive. Life-cycle results for GSR-H2 indicate NG consumption drives ~75% of total global warming impacts (~2.3 kg CO2 eq/kg H2). An environmental, health, and safety screening suggests iron-based carriers are comparatively safer, whereas NiO may pose greater risks. Overall, GSR-H2 is a scalable, competitive option for hydrogen production using nickel and non-nickel OC.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Metamodels for Rapid Analysis of Large Sets of Building Designs for Robotic Constructability: Technology Demonstration Using the NASA 3D Printed Mars Habitat Challenge

Disruptive robotic construction technologies such as additive deposition of cementitious materials like concrete (or "3D concrete printing") require the synchronous operation of multiple pieces of equipment in the production setup. In such an environment, it is crucial to simulate the robotic motions (for toolpath clashes) and the cementitious material behavior (for toolpath failures) to ensure fail-proof constructability of the envisioned building geometry. However, toolpath clash detection requires 4D simulations of the production setup, which are computationally graphics intensive, whereas toolpath failure detection requires actual 3D printing of test parts from the geometry to identify areas prone to failure while 3D printing, which is physically tedious. Both these processes, being computationally and physically intensive, have largely curtailed designers from simulating and exploring large sets of design options with varying geometries and toolpath configurations. To overcome this and allow designers to explore large sets of design possibilities, this paper proposes two novel computational metamodels capable of performing robotic toolpath clash detection and failure detection with significantly reduced times than the earlier approaches. The developed metamodels were used to rapidly simulate large sets of building design options for robotic constructability in the NASA 3D-Printed Mars Habitat Challenge.

clash detection↗

The Uniform Methods Project: Smart Thermostat Evaluation Protocol

A smart thermostat is an internet-connected device that controls home heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) equipment and can automatically adjust temperature set points to optimize performance and achieve energy savings. Smart thermostat features often include two way communication, occupancy detection (such as geofencing and occupancy sensors), schedule learning, and seasonal optimization algorithms. Smart thermostats can control most conventional HVAC systems, including central air conditioners, heat pumps, and forced air furnaces. Several types of residential utility programs offer smart thermostats as replacements measures. Working with smart thermostat vendors, utilities can offer separate optimization programs to produce energy savings beyond those achieved by installing a smart thermostat. From an evaluation perspective, smart thermostat programs have several noteworthy features. First, the energy savings from a smart thermostat may change over the life of the device. As a smart thermostat is connected to the internet, original equipment manufacturers can update the thermostat software to improve the thermostat's energy efficiency. Likewise, users can adjust the thermostat settings and schedules over time in response to changes in weather, thermal comfort, energy prices, or preferences for energy efficiency. Additionally, many thermostat manufacturers offer seasonal optimization programs that recommend changes or make minor, automated adjustments to the thermostat settings to improve energy efficiency. These opt-in programs are now standard offerings for many smart thermostat manufacturers and provided at no additional cost to users. The potential for software updates and continuous optimization and the evolving nature of user interactions mean future energy savings may differ from first-year savings and the energy savings of smart thermostats may need to be evaluated more than once. Second, smart thermostats often have small unit energy savings relative to a home's total energy consumption, especially in comparison to whole- home retrofit programs. This can make it difficult to detect the smart thermostat savings in billing or advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) meter consumption data. For example, as cooling loads in many regions average about 20% of annual electricity consumption, smart thermostat savings of 10% of cooling energy use would equate to a 2% reduction in home electricity consumption. Evaluators should use regression analysis of whole-home billing consumption or advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) meter consumption data to evaluate smart thermostat savings because, as explained at greater length below , these data are usually available to evaluators and regression can control for the impacts of weather and other potentially confounding factors on a home's energy consumption. Finally, as with other energy efficiency programs, participation in smart thermostat programs is self-selective. As discussed at greater length below , smart thermostat participants tend to be, among other things, younger, higher-income, and more likely to adopt electric vehicles (EVs) and internet connected devices than nonparticipants. These differences are often unobservable to the evaluator and correlated with a home's energy consumption, creating the potential for bias in estimating savings. Due to the small unit savings of thermostats, errors and biases from self-selection that may not be very consequential when evaluating a whole- home retrofits (e.g., ±2% of home electricity consumption) can have a major impact when evaluating the savings and cost-effectiveness of smart thermostat programs. A percentage point change in the estimated savings could affect the cost-effectiveness of a program. This means it is important for evaluators to assess and to minimize the potential for error from selection bias in estimating smart thermostat program savings. The Uniform Methods Project provides model protocols for determining energy savings and demand reductions that result from specific energy efficiency measures implemented through state and utility programs. In most cases, the measure protocols are based on a particular option identified by the International Performance Verification and Measurement Protocol ; however, this work provides a more detailed approach to implementing that option. Each chapter is written by technical experts in collaboration with their peers, reviewed by industry experts, and subject to public review and comment. The UMP protocols can be used by utilities, program administrators, public utility commissions, evaluators, and other stakeholders for both program planning and evaluation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Final Technical Report Wireless Microsensors System for Monitoring Deep Subsurface Operations

This final technical report describes the main findings of the project Wireless Microsensors System for Monitoring Deep Subsurface Operations (FE0031850). The project was part of the U.S. Department of Energy National Energy Technology Laboratory FOA 1998 program to develop new sensor systems for direct observation of parameters associated with CO2 injection and to provide data collection without being disruptive to operations. The overall DOE program was aimed at developing and validating innovative transformational sensor systems, amenable for integration with autonomous intelligent monitoring systems, that are capable of being deployed within the casing annulus and do not have casing perforation or wires/cables in the annulus for installation, power supply, or data transmission needs. Project accomplishments included 1) design and fabrication of a wireless downhole sensor system to monitor parameters for CO2 storage, 2) field testing of the sensor system in two legacy oil & gas wells, and 3) development of an analysis approach that validates the measurements and demonstrates the application of the technology to depict CO2 movement in the subsurface. The project leveraged new sensor technologies along with specialized wellbore telemetry, deployment, and analysis methods designed to address the challenges and risks related to CO2 storage in the subsurface. Results from field testing were a mixture of successes and challenges. The temperature sensor rings, installation procedures in legacy oil & gas wells, wireless powering demonstration, automated data collection, and material compatibility were successful. The wireless data transfer through cement to the wellhead via the sensor relays was not functional beyond the first relay. Consequently, work in the last year of the project included some additional testing of data transmission through different materials along with modeling and analysis of field data for CO2 monitoring applications. This work suggested there are options like polymer cements and open hole annuli that may allow point-to-point transmission along the borehole. The techno-economic analysis suggests that the sensor system is ~40% less expensive than fiber optic distributed temperature system. Modeling of CO2 storage applications suggests temperature can provide an indicator of CO2 saturation but would be best combined with pressure sensors.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

A comprehensive strategy for stable, high productivity cultivation of microalgae with controllable biomass composition

This project was performed primarily as a partnership between three Universities – The University of Toledo (UToledo), Montana State University (MSU) and The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (UNC). North Carolina State University also contributed to the project through a sub-subcontract. The project developed fundamental and applied knowhow for cultivation systems that are not restricted by (i) proximate availability of flue gas or other high concentration CO 2 sources and (ii) the energy and infrastructure burden to deliver CO 2 over long distances. To overcome these constraints, this project focused on cultivation of alkaliphilic algal cultures in high pH, high alkalinity media (pH>10, alkalinity >100mEq) and demonstrated high biomass productivity, improvement of biomass composition for fuel production, and culture stability. The high media alkalinity ensured availability of sufficient HCO 3 - in solution for high rates of carbon fixation while the high pH of the media facilitated rapid scavenging of atmospheric CO 2 . Overall, the direct air capture rates (DAC) in our system were sufficient to achieve high biomass productivities using atmospheric CO 2 alone. The project also developed and validated toolkits related to metabolic flux modeling and microbiome characterization.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Long-Term Scenarios of Transportation Decarbonization

Achieving a net-zero emissions economy by 2050 requires aggressive curbing of transportation emissions, currently the largest source of U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the fastest growing source of emissions in many countries. Transportation, a heterogeneous sector with many different passenger and freight travel modes and applications, will require a portfolio of solutions to decarbonize. To inform how to achieve significant emissions reductions in U.S. passenger and freight mobility, researchers used the Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) model to explore many transformation pathways under expert-informed bounding ranges of assumptions on future travel behavior, technology advancements, and policies. Researchers performed more than 2,000 simulations to explore possible transformation pathways and found that a combination of technological, behavioral, and policy strategies enables a staggering 89% reduction in transportation GHG emissions by 2050. Key is the rapid adoption of zero-emission electric vehicles (EVs) for all on-road passenger and freight applications, alongside a simultaneous decarbonization of electricity (supported by managed charging and proper planning). Managing travel demand growth can ease the transition by reducing the requisite amount of clean electricity and sustainable fuels supply.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

Climate Vulnerability Assessment and Resilience Planning for Idaho National Laboratory

Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL’s) mission is to discover, demonstrate, and secure innovative nuclear energy solutions, other clean energy options, and critical infrastructure. This INL’s Climate Vulnerability Assessment and Resilience Plan (VARP) was developed to enable and sustain that mission while ensuring the viability of operations considering expected climate change impacts. The VARP was developed according to the narrative requirements from the “Vulnerability Assessment and Resilience Planning Guidance, Version 1.2” document issued in February 2022. A prescribed process was used to identify mission-critical systems and components, determine historical and expected climate impacts, and develop resilient solutions. Experts from across INL, including operations staff, researchers, and climate scientists supplied input to the process. Analyses of climate modeling sources revealed that under scenarios of higher and lower greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5), INL anticipates an increase in climate hazards, including drought, heat waves, wildfire, and precipitation. Increased frequency and duration of climatic hazards forecasts high impacts on certain mission-critical asset and infrastructure types. Utilizing the VARP Risk Assessment Tool, projected high climate hazard impacts across multiple asset and infrastructure types at the INL include energy generation and distribution systems, Site buildings, specialized or mission-critical equipment, and transportation and fleet infrastructure. Some of these mission-critical asset and infrastructure types maintain high adaptive capacity to climatic changes; however, others may need additional adaptive capacity to withstand increased frequency and duration of climate hazards. INL identified close to 300 resilient solutions that were consolidated into 11 solution categories to be tracked in the Department of Energy Sustainability Dashboard. The identified solutions are a starting point for future project development and analysis. These data are intended to inform decision makers on climate issues and potential solutions across INL and associated communities. The VARP is not intended to be a budget tool or project decision document on its own, but rather one of many tools used by decision makers to establish resilient priorities. This initial document provides the framework and foundation to resilient solutions. In the coming years, each solution needs to be fully developed, costed, and prioritized based on mission-critical risk and funding priorities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Risk assessment of wellbore leakage during underground hydrogen storage

The expansion of renewable energy sources would require large-scale energy storage options to overcome the intermittent nature of these sources. Underground hydrogen storage (UHS) in depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs offers a scalable and practical energy storage solution. These reservoirs are chosen for their availability and large capacity, but the unique properties of hydrogen raise concerns about potential leakage pathways, particularly through wellbores. In this study, we develop and apply, for the first time, reduced-order models (ROMs) specifically designed for efficient leakage risk prediction in UHS systems operating in depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs. Using 3,000 high-fidelity simulation scenarios, we examine the influence of 11 key parameters, including reservoir and aquifer depths, wellbore permeability and porosity, initial saturations of water, oil and gas fractions (hydrogen, light, intermediate, and heavy hydrocarbons), reservoir pressure multiplier, and the aquifer-to-reservoir volume ratio, to simulate leakage behavior over a 1,000-year timescale. We train ROMs using a two-step classification-regression approach, achieving R 2 values exceeding 99 % across all targets. These ROMs effectively capture the leakage evolution and identify critical controls of leakage, guiding the design of mitigation strategies. Results indicate that gas leakage occurs in about 27 % of scenarios as early as five years post-operation, reaching volumes of up to 106 ft3. Oil leakage is less frequent (~17 %) and typically begins decades later. Our findings also show that hydrogen often migrates first, owing to its smaller molecular size and higher buoyancy, followed by heavier hydrocarbons. Over time, these heavier components contribute significantly to the total leaked volume, reinforcing the need for targeted monitoring and remediation strategies. Our analysis highlights that deeper storage reservoirs, shallower aquifers, and low-permeability wellbores significantly reduce leakage risks. In conclusion, this work offers a robust framework for risk-informed UHS deployment, supporting energy security through reliable large-scale hydrogen storage while safeguarding environmental integrity.

08 HYDROGEN↗

The GLACE-2 Experiment

A major motivation for the study of the coupled land-atmosphere system is the idea that soil moisture anomalies may affect future meteorological variables through their effects on future surface energy and water budgets. If true, the accurate initialization of soil moisture in a subseasonal or seasonal forecast system may improve forecast skill, making the forecast products more valuable to society. The Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE-2) project is examining, with a wide variety of models, the degree to which subseasonal (out to two months) precipitation and air temperature forecasts improve through the realistic initialization of soil moisture. For the first time ever, a global consensus should emerge regarding the value of land initialization for forecasts, perhaps motivating national forecast centers to make full use of land moisture initialization in their operations. Participants in GLACE-2 perform two series of forecasts, each consisting of 100 2-month forecast ensembles (10 members per ensemble) covering ten boreal spring and summer start-dates in each of the years 1986-1995. Series 1 utilizes realistic land surface state initialization, provided through a decadal offline simulation using realistic meteorological forcing, as provided by the Global Soil Wetness Project - Phase 2 (GSWP-2), a research activity of the Global Land-Atmosphere System Study (GLASS) of GEWEX. Series 2 is identical to Series 1 in every way except for the fact that it does not benefit from realistic land state initialization. Through the comparison of Series 1 and 2, we isolate the impact of land initialization on the forecasts. Optional extensions to these base runs include forecasts covering additional years, using alternative meteorological forcing for the land initialization. To date, GLACE-2 has garnered participation from eleven modeling groups, covering 13 atmospheric models. Analysis of available results is already well underway, both at the individual modeling institutions and at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, which is coordinating the project. Analysis focuses on two elements of the forecast problem: (i) the quantification of model-specific "predictability" (i.e., the degree to which simulated atmospheric chaos will foil a forecast, even under the assumption of"perfect" model physics, initialization data, and validation data) and its decay with time; and (ii) the quantification of forecast skill, determined through a comparison of predicted precipitation and air temperature against observations. Indeed, the specific contribution of land initialization to both these elements is isolated through a comparison of the Series 1 and 2 forecasts. We examine the two elements at four different forecast leads: 1-15, 16-30, 31-45, and 46-60 days. Statistics-based approaches for enhancing skill (essentially using observational statistics to reduce the impact of the models' climatic biases) are also tested. In the present talk, we provide an update of progress in GLACE-2, featuring quantifications of predictability and forecast skill for a number of the participating models and providing a "first look" at the desired consensus view of land impacts on subseasonal forecasts.

Koster, Randal↗

Segmented X-Ray Optics for Future Space Telescopes

Lightweight and high resolution mirrors are needed for future space-based X-ray telescopes to achieve advances in high-energy astrophysics. The slumped glass mirror technology in development at NASA GSFC aims to build X-ray mirror modules with an area to mass ratio of approx.17 sq cm/kg at 1 keV and a resolution of 10 arc-sec Half Power Diameter (HPD) or better at an affordable cost. As the technology nears the performance requirements, additional engineering effort is needed to ensure the modules are compatible with space-flight. This paper describes Flight Mirror Assembly (FMA) designs for several X-ray astrophysics missions studied by NASA and defines generic driving requirements and subsequent verification tests necessary to advance technology readiness for mission implementation. The requirement to perform X-ray testing in a horizontal beam, based on the orientation of existing facilities, is particularly burdensome on the mirror technology, necessitating mechanical over-constraint of the mirror segments and stiffening of the modules in order to prevent self-weight deformation errors from dominating the measured performance. This requirement, in turn, drives the mass and complexity of the system while limiting the testable angular resolution. Design options for a vertical X-ray test facility alleviating these issues are explored. An alternate mirror and module design using kinematic constraint of the mirror segments, enabled by a vertical test facility, is proposed. The kinematic mounting concept has significant advantages including potential for higher angular resolution, simplified mirror integration, and relaxed thermal requirements. However, it presents new challenges including low vibration modes and imperfections in kinematic constraint. Implementation concepts overcoming these challenges are described along with preliminary test and analysis results demonstrating the feasibility of kinematically mounting slumped glass mirror segments.

McClelland, Ryan S.↗

Mission Analysis and Aircraft Sizing of a Hybrid-Electric Regional Aircraft

The purpose of this study was to explore advanced airframe and propulsion technologies for a small regional transport aircraft concept (approximately 50 passengers), with the goal of creating a conceptual design that delivers significant cost and performance advantages over current aircraft in that class. In turn, this could encourage airlines to open up new markets, reestablish service at smaller airports, and increase mobility and connectivity for all passengers. To meet these study goals, hybrid-electric propulsion was analyzed as the primary enabling technology. The advanced regional aircraft is analyzed with four levels of electrification, 0 percent electric with 100 percent conventional, 25 percent electric with 75 percent conventional, 50 percent electric with 50 percent conventional, and 75 percent electric with 25 percent conventional for comparison purposes. Engine models were developed to represent projected future turboprop engine performance with advanced technology and estimates of the engine weights and flowpath dimensions were developed. A low-order multi-disciplinary optimization (MDO) environment was created that could capture the unique features of parallel hybrid-electric aircraft. It is determined that at the size and range of the advanced turboprop: The battery specific energy must be 750 watt-hours per kilogram or greater for the total energy to be less than for a conventional aircraft. A hybrid vehicle would likely not be economically feasible with a battery specific energy of 500 or 750 watt-hours per kilogram based on the higher gross weight, operating empty weight, and energy costs compared to a conventional turboprop. The battery specific energy would need to reach 1000 watt-hours per kilogram by 2030 to make the electrification of its propulsion an economically feasible option. A shorter range and/or an altered propulsion-airframe integration could provide more favorable results.

Antcliff, Kevin R.↗