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DOE OSTI2024

Research Priorities and Opportunities in U.S. Wholesale Electricity Markets: Market Design under Deep Decarbonization

This report provides a comprehensive review of challenges, research needs, and potential solutions for competitive wholesale electricity market design in deeply decarbonized power systems. We provide context regarding how competitive wholesale electricity markets can evolve in a longer-term perspective to ensure that they still operate efficiently throughout the transition to a deeply decarbonized future. We organize the discussion across seven topics: operational reliability, emerging technology integration, adequacy and resilience, price formation, interactions across transmission and distribution systems, transmission planning, achieving clean energy objectives, and challenges associated with cost-effectively achieving clean energy objectives. In each section we first identify key associated challenges before proposing a set of corresponding solutions and research needs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Next-Generation Cobalt-Free Cathodes – A Prospective Solution to the Battery Industry's Cobalt Problem

Lithium-ion batteries are overreliant on cobalt containing cathodes. Current projections estimate that hundreds of millions of electric vehicles (EVs) will be on the road by 2050, and this ever-growing demand threatens to deplete global cobalt reserves at an alarming rate. Moreover, cobalt supply chain issues have significantly increased cobalt prices throughout the last decade. As such, energy storage research and development need to reduce the reliance on cobalt to meet ever-growing demand for lithium-ion batteries. The present review summarizes the science and technology gaps and potential of numerous cobalt-free Li-ion cathodes including layered, spinel, olivine, and disordered rock-salt systems. Despite the promising performance of these Co-free cathodes, scale-up and manufacturing bottlenecks associated with these materials must also be addressed to enable widespread adoption in commercial batteries. Overall, this review broadly highlights the enormous promise of “zero-cobalt” Li-ion batteries to enable sustainable production of EVs in the coming decades.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Decentralised demand response market model based on reinforcement learning

A new decentralised demand response (DR) model relying on bi‐directional communications is developed in this study. In this model, each user is considered as an agent that submits its bids according to the consumption urgency and a set of parameters defined by a reinforcement learning algorithm called Q‐learning. The bids are sent to a local DR market, which is responsible for communicating all bids to the wholesale market and the system operator (SO), reporting to the customers after determining the local DR market clearing price. From local markets’ viewpoint, the goal is to maximise social welfare. Four DR levels are considered to evaluate the effect of different DR portions in the cost of the electricity purchase. The outcomes are compared with the ones achieved from a centralised approach (aggregation‐based model) as well as an uncontrolled method. Numerical studies prove that the proposed decentralised model remarkably drops the electricity cost compare to the uncontrolled method, being nearly as optimal as a centralised approach.

Shafie‐Khah, Miadreza↗

DOE OSTI2021

Techno‐economic feasibility analysis of engineered energycane‐based biorefinery co‐producing biodiesel and ethanol

Abstract High feedstock cost and low oil yields per unit of land from temperate oilseed crops limit the growth of commercial‐scale biodiesel production. Recently, highly productive crops, such as sugarcane and energycane, have been engineered to accumulate triacylglycerides (TAGs) that allow the production of far more industrial vegetable oil than previously possible. A proof‐of‐concept suggests that biodiesel production from engineered energycane will be possible. However, before making efforts for scale‐up, it is critical to understand the commercial feasibility and economic competitiveness of this process. This study performs techno‐economic analysis of a unique biorefinery processing energycane to co‐produce biodiesel and ethanol. Comprehensive process simulation models were developed for two scenarios: (i) biodiesel from TAGs and ethanol from fermentation of sugars in juice and (ii) biodiesel from TAGs and ethanol from fermentation of sugars in juice and hydrolysis of carbohydrates in bagasse. Based on the target levels, the analysis was performed for energycane containing 0%, 5%, and 7.7% TAGs (d.b.). The biodiesel from engineered energycane was found economically viable and competitive to soybean biodiesel. Although the capital investment is higher compared to the soybean biodiesel plant, the biodiesel production costs ($0.66–$0.9/L) were lower than soybean biodiesel ($0.91/L). Biorefinery‐scenario‐1 processing energycane containing 7.7% TAG produces biodiesel with profitability (IRR 7.84) slightly lower than soybean biodiesel (IRR 8.3), but yields five times of biodiesel per unit land and is self‐sustainable for energy requirements. The surplus electricity can displace fossil electricity and provide environmental benefits. Monte Carlo simulation indicated that biorefinery is profitable with a 29%–65% probability (NPV > 0) which is largely controlled by feedstock composition and biodiesel market price. It is important to note that energycane can be grown on the marginal rainfed lands in S.E. USA, where soybean would not be viable. Biodiesel from engineered energycane would therefore be complementary to soydiesel in the United States.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Understanding the Behavioral Aspects of Rate Design

Consumer demand for electricity has often been thought of as homogenous and inelastic. However, consumers may have preferences for their electricity consumption that they have been unable to realize due to the structures of electricity rates, and historic methods of regulation. As ratemaking becomes more dynamic, consumers will have a newfound ability to realize these preferences. This paper conducts a review of this issue through the lenses of utility regulation, neoclassical economics, and behavioral economics. It surveys what aspects of consumer preferences and behavior have been well established for the electricity sector and identifies gaps that could be filled by future research. This analysis has implications for stakeholders looking to understand how households will function in transactive and real time pricing environments.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Methods for Computing Physically Realistic Estimates of Electric Water Heater Demand Response Resource Suitable for Bulk Power System Planning Models

Demand response is commonly called on to reduce load during system peak times or to respond to contingency events. In future power systems with higher shares of wind and solar generation (which we describe together as variable generation [VG]), demand response could have more opportunities to provide energy shifting or operating reserve services. This report evaluates the ability of residential electric water heaters, both electric resistance water heaters (ERWHs) and heat pump water heaters (HPWHs), to provide such services starting from detailed whole-building energy models that realistically represent New England single family home stock. We use a parsimonious surrogate model to represent operational flexibility in a form suitable for linear and mixed integer programming. This enables relatively fast determination of aggregate contingency reserve resource, price-taking energy shifting outcomes, and in some cases the determination of aggregate models at the megawatt (MW) scale that can be directly included in large-scale grid models. After selecting modeling methods and parameters through various computational experiments, we find interquartile ranges of contingency reserve resource in ISO-NE for about 603,400 ERWHs of 45 MW - 69 MW for Claim10 (50 minute responses provided with 10 minutes of advanced notification) and 65 MW - 102 MW for Claim30 (30 minute responses provided with 30 minutes of advanced notification), and for about 619,000 HPWHs of 48 MW - 88 MW for Claim10 and 52 MW - 90 MW for Claim30. The overall reserve resource is up to 32% of total load for ERWHs providing Claim10 service, 47% for ERWHs providing Claim30 service, 93% for HPWHs providing Claim10 service, and 97% for HPWHs providing Claim30 service. More work is required to determine if HPWHs are inherently more suitable than ERWHs for providing contingency reserve or if these results reflect idiosyncrasies of the single family home stock model used in this study. The value of this contingency resource in a Near-term VG model of ISO-NE is $\$ 0.40$ to $\$1.20$ per water heater-year, and significantly larger, $\$ 3.80$ to $\$ 5.30$ per water heater-year in a Mid-term VG model of ISONE. Aggregating surrogate models to the MW-scale for energy shifting service is more challenging than for contingency service and we only present such results for ERWHs, because we were unable to determine satisfactory ways to deal with HPWHs' time-varying and path dependent operational characteristics. Individual surrogate models suitable for evaluating the energy shifting resource from both ERWHs and HPWHs are created, however, and dispatched against day-ahead prices from the Near-Term VG and Mid-Term VG models of ISO-NE. The individual surrogate models are able to access and potentially shift all 640 GWh of HPWH load and 1,547 GWh of ERWH load we modeled in two different single family home stock models. In contrast, the most effective model of aggregate ERWH shifting resource we created only captured 34.7% of the total ERWH load. Energy shifting affected by price-taking dispatch against modeled day-ahead energy prices produces per water heater year profits of $\$19.44$ - $\$22.93$ for individual HPWHs, $\$39.11$ - $\$40.54$ for individual ERWHs, and up to $\$4.00$ - $\$4.24$ for aggregated ERWHs, with the variations mainly due to grid conditions (more or less VG). When the supply-side response to these changes is accounted for, the per water heater year production cost savings for ISO-NE are $\$7.50$ to $\$17.70$ for the most effective set of endogenously dispatched aggregate ERWHs, $\$15.60$ to $\$15.70$ for individual ERWHs dispatched against the DA prices, and $\$10.70$ to $\$11.20$ for individual HPWHs dispatched against DA prices. Those ranges primarily represent the difference between Near-Term VG and Mid-Term VG grid conditions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Techno-economic and environmental assessment of solar-based electrical vehicles charging stations integrated with hydrogen production

With the growing interest in adopting both commercial and residential electric vehicles (EVs) utilizing green renewable energy, the techno-economic assessment of EV charging stations with solar energy is a critical aspect of the transition to sustainable transportation. However, battery storage capacity for variable solar energy production is becoming increasingly less cost-effective due to the higher Lithium price. Complementing solar energy production and battery storage, the potential of combining green hydrogen fuel energy integration with solar energy for EV charging stations can provide a sustainable alternative to reach carbon-free transportation. This research aims to assess the technical and economic viability of grid-connected Photovoltaic (PV)-based EV charging stations across Kentucky based on existing EV load profiles. The study considers different PV system sizes, locations, orientations, and the impact of net metering policies and electricity tariffs on the profitability of the PV systems. Further, using excess PV energy, Lithium-Ion batteries will be charged, which will be assessed considering the techno-economic and environmental impacts of green EV charging stations. To further enhance green renewable energy production, we also investigated the feasibility of on-grid PV-based EV charging stations with Lithium-Ion batteries charged during low tariff periods. In comparison with these scenarios, we studied the potential benefits of integrating green hydrogen energy production using excess solar energy with and without governmental incentives. Furthermore, we assess the environmental impact of these green EV charging stations across Kentucky. Our study indicates that EV stations across Kentucky have similar techno-economic feasibility with insignificant deviation in the levelized cost of electricity, payback period, and PV energy fraction with/without Li-Ion batteries. However, with green hydrogen production, the marginal H 2 production cost indicates the first scenario (on-grid PV energy charging) is the most significant, roughly 10 USD/Kg, which is similar to 1.5 times higher than the second (charging during low-tariff periods) and the third scenarios (power grid to satisfy the demand deficit - approximately 6.5 USD/Kg). From the environmental perspective, the second scenario would be a good option for either hybrid EV/H 2 or EV charging stations in Kentucky, factoring in the hydrogen production cost and the carbon footprint.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2025

Electric transmission value and its drivers in United States power markets

Electric transmission infrastructure plays a vital role during extreme weather and supply disruptions and can enable low-cost electricity systems. This paper contributes to a more complete understanding of the value and cost-effectiveness of transmission, as well as barriers to its development. By studying wholesale energy market prices in the United States between 2012 and 2022, we find that additional transfer capacity between regions would have been especially valuable, with a median value of $116 million per GW per year. This capacity would often have provided balanced benefits to each region. The market value of transmission was highly influenced by a small fraction of time: 5% of hours typically captured at least 45% of the total value. These peak periods were primarily driven by unforeseen changes in conditions within one day of operations. Annualized transmission infrastructure cost estimates were lower than the average market value for most locations, including all links crossing regional seams, where the value-to-cost ratio was often greater than 4. This suggests that there are barriers to developing valuable grid infrastructure. These results complement forward-looking modeling studies and support efforts to improve modeling practices.

Energy economics↗

DOE OSTI2023

Integrated Micro‐Scale Concentrating Photovoltaics: A Scalable Path Toward High‐Efficiency, Low‐Cost Solar Power

The global energy market is seeing increases in the electricity demand of a couple of percentage points annually. The photovoltaic (PV) industry is also growing rapidly every year. One of the PV technologies is concentrator photovoltaics (CPV). CPV uses high‐efficiency multijunction solar cells and optics to concentrate sunlight, thereby significantly reducing the amount of semiconductor material needed. Yet, due to the high upfont manufacturing cost of CPV, it currently does not offer a competitive price against silicon PV. With this a new branch is introduced to the industry, micro‐CPV, which can be broadly explained as the miniaturization of the solar cells and optical components. The motivation for micro‐CPV is lowering the cost by decreasing the material volume and enabling new system architectures and high‐throughput manufacturing methods, while still maintaining high electrical efficiencies, taking advantage of a lower thermal load, shorter optical paths, lower resistive losses, and lower material volumes. Herein, a comprehensive review of the technological advances is presented, key synergies between micro‐CPV and other industries sharing similar challenges are identified, exemplified by micro‐light emitting diodes display manufacturing. New assembly process development in these industries will facilitate commercial adoption of micro‐CPV with continued miniaturization while driving down the cost.

Jost, Norman↗

NASA NTRS2015

Xenon Acquisition Strategies for High-Power Electric Propulsion NASA Missions

The benefits of high-power solar electric propulsion (SEP) for both NASA's human and science exploration missions combined with the technology investment from the Space Technology Mission Directorate have enabled the development of a 50kW-class SEP mission. NASA mission concepts developed, including the Asteroid Redirect Robotic Mission, and those proposed by contracted efforts for the 30kW-class demonstration have a range of xenon propellant loads from 100's of kg up to 10,000 kg. A xenon propellant load of 10 metric tons represents greater than 10% of the global annual production rate of xenon. A single procurement of this size with short-term delivery can disrupt the xenon market, driving up pricing, making the propellant costs for the mission prohibitive. This paper examines the status of the xenon industry worldwide, including historical xenon supply and pricing. The paper discusses approaches for acquiring on the order of 10 MT of xenon propellant considering realistic programmatic constraints to support potential near-term NASA missions. Finally, the paper will discuss acquisitions strategies for mission campaigns utilizing multiple high-power solar electric propulsion vehicles requiring 100's of metric tons of xenon over an extended period of time where a longer term acquisition approach could be implemented.

Electric Propulsion↗

DOE OSTI2020

Report on the Use and Function of the Integrated Operations Capability Analysis Platform (ICAP) and the LWRS Innovation Portal (IP)

The commercial nuclear power industry has achieved excellent safety and reliability performance but is struggling to survive in an electricity market that is increasingly dominated by subsidized renewables and cheap natural gas. These challenges have forced utilities to explore previously uncharted avenues to drastically reduce the operations and maintenance costs of their plants which are the primary drivers of the total cost to produce electricity. The petrochemical industry faced similar challenges some years ago as the costs of extraction and processing were rising while their reservoirs were being depleted along with a drop-in commodity prices that resulted in unsustainable operations. In this challenging climate, they developed a business model called Integrated Operations (IO) that sought to utilize technology to enable news ways of working through the integration of people, technology, process and governance changes. The Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program, working with IFE have developed an operating model via transferable learnings from the North Sea O&G industry. This framework is termed “Integrated Operations for Nuclear” (ION). ION is a transformation model that integrates the benefits and features of four principal factors: People, Technology, Process and Governance. The purpose of this report is to describe how to generate an ION business process analysis and utilize this information to reduce O&M costs. In order to make this job easier, DOE LWRS has created a suite of tools that will allow a person who is involved in a transformation effort at their company to build a solid documented business case for embarking on a major transformation effort. These tools, the Integrated Operations Capability Analysis Model (ICAP) and the LWRS Innovation Portal (IP) are described herein with instructions on their use. Instructions on how the interface with the EPRI Business Case Analysis Method (BCAM) are also provided.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Visualization Tool for Comparing Low-Carbon Energy Options

This project developed a web based visualization tool for comparing current and future nuclear fuel cycle options to low-carbon and conventional energy technologies in the United States. While nuclear power is well established as the gold-standard for baseload power production and also as the technology with the lowest overall carbon intensity of any commercial form of electricity generation. This project develop a web-based tool for electricity producers and consumers to compare renewable and conventional energy technologies to the conventional and advanced nuclear fuel cycle options. The work leveraged data on land use, carbon intensity, unit cost and pricing data for renewables from the open literature. Input data from the Advanced Fuel Cycle Cost Basis report will be used for current and advanced nuclear power systems. We coupled these data to energy flow and lifecycle models for user-selected energy generation and storage types. We will display economic comparisons from the perspectives of generators and consumers, as well as carbon production, land use, and reliability comparisons.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Zero Export Feeder Through Transactive Markets

This project is aimed at creating a transactive energy market to address the challenges faced by utility providers when increasing distributed energy resource (DER) adoption in their service area. One major challenge is mitigating export back to the grid during times of excess production. The transactive energy market operates at the distribution level and balances the supply and demand on the feeder, thus maintaining a zero-energy export at the primary feeder head. The market participants in this case are the residential customers on the feeder, who bid into the market. Building controls are then optimized based on the settled price. Market performance was demonstrated in this study by simulating different levels of DER penetration on a selected Pepco feeder. The feeder successfully achieved a zero export while providing cost-effective electricity to the participants, demonstrating that this market design can enable high DER penetration on existing feeders.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Energy utilization strategies in lignocellulosic biorefineries

Lignocellulosic biorefineries can generate various energy-rich side streams, including biogas from anaerobic digestion, a lignin stream from biomass pretreatment, and conversion residues. This study evaluates different chemical energy utilization strategies in lignocellulosic biorefineries based on energy and carbon efficiencies, cost, and greenhouse gas mitigation potential. Specifically, using modeling and optimization, we examine strategies that include electricity generation, biogas upgrade to biomethane, lignin valorization, and carbon capture and storage. We find that upgrading biogas to biomethane demonstrates the highest energy efficiency and leads to the lowest minimum fuel selling price for the main product, ethanol. The biorefinery with carbon capture and storage achieves the lowest net carbon footprint. Lignin valorization has the highest carbon footprint due to the additional materials required for lignin depolymerization, despite its potential to produce high value bioproducts.

Aboagye, Emmanuel A. [Princeton Univ., NJ (United ↗

DOE OSTI2022

GEN3D Experimental and Numerical Development of GEN3 Durability Models

Understanding of the high temperature durability of particles and the materials that contain them is critical to next generation of concentrating solar power (CSP) technology. Here we studied the durability of particles and their containment materials under extreme UV cycling, thermal cycling, and in low-speed high temperature mechanical wear situations. The optical stability of seven candidate particles has been determined following exposure to the high temperature conditions present in a generation 3 particle-based CSP technology. Particle solar weighted absorptance and emittance measured periodically during 10,000 high solar irradiance exposure cycles and up to 400 hours of isothermal aging has been documented. The particle aging due to repeated exposure to concentrated solar flux represented the 30-year lifetime of a power plant. Models were fit to the absorptivity and emissivity data following the isothermal aging provides the projected optical degradation of the particles as a function of temperature. Mechanical wear was studied through the use of custom developed wear testing facilities for measuring high temperature impact wear, abrasion wear, and particle attrition. Additionally, a novel technique for measuring the high temperature mechanical properties of single particles was developed. Through these tests it was observed that high nickel alloys generally showed lower wear than comparable iron based steels, particularly at elevated temperatures of 800°C. Mechanical wear at these temperatures is a highly complex phenomenon combining both mechanical wear and oxidation. Additionally, the containment materials wear rates are influenced by the particles (both hardness and roundness), making the wear mechanisms complex. The initial wear test conducted in the abrasion test rig revealed a substantial amount of oxide materials in the particle bed after testing (in relative to later tests), and substantially more wear, likely indicating a need for concern in startup operation of particle facilities to not incur high wear from the presence of oxides. Particle attrition experiments have only been conducted for a single material but increase size distribution, reduction in circularity, and particle diameter is observed. Efforts to develop predictive models was limited due to a testing campaign that prioritized testing materials for particle pathway developers over building a comprehensive design of experiments. The results discussed in this report inform future CSP developers and researchers further de risking the technology and assisting in its future development. ParticleBased CSP development provides a path to dispatchable solar power generation with storage at a price competitive in the current energy market. Lowering the cost of CSP technology provides a carbon free power generation solution that can assist in the transition from fossil fuels to renewable sources of electricity.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1984

Polycrystalline silicon study: Low-cost silicon refining technology prospects and semiconductor-grade polycrystalline silicon availability through 1988

Photovoltaic arrays that convert solar energy into electrical energy can become a cost effective bulk energy generation alternative, provided that an adequate supply of low cost materials is available. One of the key requirements for economic photovoltaic cells is reasonably priced silicon. At present, the photovoltaic industry is dependent upon polycrystalline silicon refined by the Siemens process primarily for integrated circuits, power devices, and discrete semiconductor devices. This dependency is expected to continue until the DOE sponsored low cost silicon refining technology developments have matured to the point where they are in commercial use. The photovoltaic industry can then develop its own source of supply. Silicon material availability and market pricing projections through 1988 are updated based on data collected early in 1984. The silicon refining industry plans to meet the increasing demands of the semiconductor device and photovoltaic product industries are overviewed. In addition, the DOE sponsored technology research for producing low cost polycrystalline silicon, probabilistic cost analysis for the two most promising production processes for achieving the DOE cost goals, and the impacts of the DOE photovoltaics program silicon refining research upon the commercial polycrystalline silicon refining industry are addressed.

Costogue, E. N.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Analysis of a Stretched Derivative Aircraft with Open Rotor Propulsion

Research into advanced, high-speed civil turboprops received significant attention during the 1970s and 1980s when fuel efficiency was the driving focus of U.S. aeronautical research. But when fuel prices declined sharply there was no longer sufficient motivation to continue maturing the technology. Recent volatility in fuel prices and increasing concern for aviation's environmental impact, however, have renewed interest in unducted, open rotor propulsion and revived research by NASA and a number of engine manufacturers. Recently, NASA and General Electric have teamed to conduct several investigations into the performance and noise of an advanced, single-aisle transport with open rotor propulsion. The results of these initial studies indicate open rotor engines have the potential to provide significant reduction in fuel consumption compared to aircraft using turbofan engines with equivalent core technology. In addition, noise analysis of the concept indicates that an open rotor aircraft in the single-aisle transport class would be able to meet current noise regulations with margin. The behavior of derivative open rotor transports is of interest. Heavier, "stretched" derivative aircraft tend to be noisier than their lighter relatives. Of particular importance to the business case for the concept is how the noise margin changes relative to regulatory limits within a family of similar open rotor aircraft. The subject of this report is a performance and noise assessment of a notional, heavier, stretched derivative airplane equipped with throttle-push variants of NASA's initial open rotor engine design.

Aircraft Engines↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Hydrogen Load Modeling Method for Integrated Hydrogen Energy System Planning: Preprint

The integrated hydrogen energy system incorporates hydrogen energy into the power grid, which has been recognized as a promising option for reaching a 100% renewable electricity supply. It can make a profit because the hydrogen produced can be sold as fuel or used to generate electricity for grid services. In this paper, we develop a planning model for the integrated hydrogen energy system that considers the uncertainty of the load demand, the renewable energy generation, and the market prices. To calculate the hydrogen load, we simulate the refueling operations at a hydrogen fueling station over the course of one day. Moreover, the long-term profitability of the integrated system under both cur-rent and future conditions is compared in the planning results.

active distribution network↗