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At least 667 records · Page 37

Leptogenesis in parity solutions to the strong CP problem and Standard Model parameters

We study the simplest theories with exact spacetime parity that solve the strong CP problem and successfully generate the cosmological baryon asymmetry via decays of right-handed neutrinos. Lower bounds are derived for the masses of the right-handed neutrinos and for the scale of spontaneous parity breaking, v R . For generic thermal leptogenesis, v R ≳ 10 12 GeV, unless the small observed neutrino masses arise from fine-tuning. We compute v R in terms of the top quark mass, the QCD coupling, and the Higgs boson mass and find this bound is consistent with current data at 1σ. Future precision measurements of these parameters may provide support for the theory or, if v R is determined to be below 10 12 GeV, force modifications. However, modified cosmologies do not easily allow reductions in v R — no reduction is possible if leptogenesis occurs in the collisions of domain walls formed at parity breaking, and at most a factor 10 reduction is possible with non-thermal leptogenesis. Standard Model parameters that yield low values for v R can only be accommodated by having a high degree of degeneracy among the right-handed neutrinos involved in leptogenesis. If future precision measurements determine v R to be above 10 12 GeV, it is likely that higher-dimensional operators of the theory will yield a neutron electric dipole moment accessible to ongoing experiments. This is especially true in a simple UV completion of the neutrino sector, involving gauge singlet fermions, where the bound from successful leptogenesis is strengthened to v R ≳ 10 13 GeV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Beyond Energy Efficiency: A clustering approach to embed demand flexibility into building energy benchmarking

The intermittency of carbon-free renewables and the demand changes associated with the widespread push for electrifying the transportation and building sectors provides an opportunity for buildings to go beyond energy efficiency and push towards providing demand flexibility to the electricity grid. The duality of energy efficiency and demand flexibility is necessary for success in a sustainable and reliable energy transition. Current building energy benchmarking models are limited in their ability to integrate concepts of demand flexibility and/or utilize granular smart meter data. Thus, current benchmarking methods are focused annual energy usage and fail to incorporate how the time of use of energy consumption impacts emissions in a quickly changing energy grid. Without a more comprehensive view of energy usage and associated real-time emissions, current benchmarking methods are unlikely to realize the full decarbonization potential of buildings. New emerging data streams provide an opportunity to develop a new generation of benchmarking energy models that embed dimensions of energy efficiency, grid interactivity, and demand flexibility into their analysis. In this paper, we propose a four-step method for embedding grid interactivity and demand flexibility into building benchmarking models that utilizes emerging building and time-series electricity data streams. We first engineer features to produce a mix-type dataset that encompasses many attributes of grid-interactive and efficient buildings, and then we apply K-medoids using Gower's Distance to produce peer-group clusters. We apply the method to a case study of 306 primary and secondary schools in southern California, USA. The results show that the method effectively clusters buildings by attributes of demand flexibility and energy efficiency. The clustering results reveal patterns in inefficient building operations and demand inflexibility at the building peer group level. In conclusion, the interpretation of clusters can serve as an integrated energy efficiency and demand flexibility benchmarking model and inform performance-specific policy targeting for buildings that go beyond traditional efficiency measures.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Historical and Future Global Irrigation Energy Consumption by Fuel and Region

Irrigation energy use is a significant component of agricultural production costs, contributing directly to the energy and emissions intensity of crop production and ultimately to food prices. Understanding the existing structure of irrigation energy consumption help achieve food-energy-water security and environmental goals. We present a comprehensive global data set detailing country-level irrigation energy consumption, emphasizing the comparative use of electric, diesel, and emerging solar pumps. To our knowledge, no such data set exists. We draw from a literature review to develop a logistic transformed regression model to estimate the shares of fuel sources for irrigation across countries over historical years to construct a global data set of country-level irrigation energy consumption by multiple fuel sources. Additionally, we compare our estimates of irrigation energy use with agricultural energy use as reported by the International Energy Agency and other external sources. We then use this data to project future irrigation energy use with the Global Change Analysis Model, which is a multisector dynamics model, to showcase the usage of this data set. Projections under the reference scenario show a global shift in fuel types for irrigation pumping, while patterns vary across regions, with India and Pakistan leading in solar-powered irrigation growth and countries like the USA and China continuing to rely primarily on grid electricity. This data set provides a resource to understand the role of irrigation fuel choices within the broader energy sector, as well as the connected agricultural, land use, and water sectors under alternative future scenarios, enabling informed decision making toward efficient agricultural practices.

Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM)↗

Formation and eruption of Sun-aligned arcs at the polar cap-auroral oval boundary

This paper reports on results from a study of the poleward edge of the auroral oval in the morning sector using a comprehensive blend of in-situ and ground-based measurements. Three rockets, equipped to measure electric and magnetic fields, energetic particles, and plasma density flew into an auroral display whose dynamical features were reorded with a digital image into an auroral display intensified all-sky camera as well as with an incoherent scatter radar. In addition, a number of DMSP satellite measurements bracketed the launch time. Evidence is presented here that in a condition of declining magnetic activity Sun-aligned arcs are injected into the polar cap at velocities approximately 7 km/s from locations of periodic brightening along the morningside of the auroral oval. The multipoint in situ measurements allow some separation of temporal and spatial effects and strongly suggest a poleward contraction of the convention pattern of about 0.25 deg INVL in 70 s. The most equatorward of the two brightest arcs studied erupted into a region which already was characterized by strong sunward convection. The most poleward, however, pushed into a region that had been convecting in an antisunward direction at velocities exceeding 1 km/s less than 2 min earlier, and it is likely that sunward convection subsequently pertained poleward of that arc as well. We believe that these events mark the reconfiguration of the magnetosphere into a system characterized by a smaller polar cap.

Berg, G. A.↗

Code for Analyzing and Designing Spacecraft Power System Radiators

GPHRAD is a computer code for analysis and design of disk or circular-sector heat-rejecting radiators for spacecraft power systems. A specific application is for Stirling-cycle/linear-alternator electric-power systems coupled to radioisotope general-purpose heat sources. GPHRAD affords capabilities and options to account for thermophysical properties (thermal conductivity, density) of either metal-alloy or composite radiator materials.

Juhasz, Albert↗

The National Climate Data Base (NCDB): A Bias-Corrected High-Resolution Climate Dataset

Assessing renewable energy resources under future climate scenarios has been highlighted in recent years to analyze and understand potential impacts of future change in renewable generation on the power sector. Solar energy is well-known as the most plentiful among various renewable resources and usually converted to electricity using photovoltaics (PV) technologies, and the global deployment of PV technology has increased rapidly in recent decades. In this study, we develop a statistical technique to downscale the future projection of solar irradiance for PV energy-related applications. A set of Regional Climate Model (RCM)-based projections obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) are used as inputs to statistical methods to generate high-resolution global horizontal irradiance (GHI) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The main steps of the statistical downscaling method include (1) regridding RCM output (0.22 degree and daily resolutions) to handle the modeled-observed data sets on a common grid, (2) correcting bias of RCM GHI using satellite-derived observation, and (3) implementing temporal and spatial downscaling to generate GHI at 8-km and hourly resolution. Basically, complex physical processes and interactions between solar radiation and various atmospheric constituents lead solar irradiance to be highly variable and uncertain. Underrepresentation of clouds from the RCM parameterizations is the main source of error and uncertainty in modeling solar irradiance. Thus, we adapt and use the high-quality satellite-derived data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to analyze the bias and error of RCM GHI as well as estimate the statistical parameters for spatial and temporal downscaling. This presentation will summarize the comprehensive analysis conducted to produce and assess the results under two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We will also present a detailed validation demonstrating the strengths of the proposed downscaling method and future extension of this research.

climate data↗

Charting a Path for Research and Development of Reliability and Resilience in South Asia's Power Sector

The power sector in South Asia faces several trends with the potential to impact its reliability and resilience. Rapidly increasing demand, coupled with an increasing reliance on variable renewable resources and the circular linkages with climate change points to an increasing need to understand the extent of climate impacts on both the electricity load and the electricity generation. These larger shifts are also coupled with opportunities near the grid edge that could have a large impact on system planning and operations, such as electrification of the transport sector, increased reliance on buildings to serve a broader set of loads and be flexible resources for utilities, more efficient use of industrial and agricultural loads, and growth in distributed energy resources such as rooftop solar and batteries. It is critical that as this transformation takes place that expectations for reliability and resilience of the grid continue to increase in the region. The South Asia Group for Energy (SAGE), composed of USAID, the US Department of Energy, and three national laboratories, has been tasked with providing an overview of the research and development resources necessary to understand the upcoming challenges for the power system as it pertains to reliability and resilience. This discussion paper identifies some of the key trends and connections that are important for power sector reliability and resilience and provides a starting point for eliciting feedback from power sector stakeholders about their experiences and needs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Advanced Transmission Technologies – GETs and HPCs Session 1: ATT Foundations and Dynamic Line Ratings (DLRs)

The INL TADA GETs Cohort Session 1, held on November 4, 2025, convened experts to address the integration of advanced transmission technologies, including Grid-Enhancing Technologies (GETs) and High Performance Conductors (HPCs), with a focus on digital assurance challenges. The session highlighted the growing importance of cybersecurity, supply chain transparency, reliability, and business risk management in deploying GETs, especially Dynamic Line Ratings (DLRs). Participants examined how expanded attack surfaces, limited vendor pools, and new regulatory requirements—such as FERC Orders 881, 2023, and 1920—are influencing utilities and technology providers. The workshop underscored the need for cyber-informed engineering, secure-by-design principles, and practical risk management strategies, while fostering collaboration and knowledge sharing among industry peers. Technical discussions covered the evolution from static to dynamic line ratings, complexities of cloud-based architectures, and NERC CIP compliance challenges. The session concluded with a collaborative risk exercise and a preview of future workshops on advanced power flow control and transmission topology optimization, reinforcing the cohort’s commitment to advancing digital assurance in the energy sector.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Best Practices in Electricity Load Modeling and Forecasting for Long-Term Power System Planning

This report highlights best practices for enhanced load modeling and forecasting for long-term power sector planning. The best practices touch on stakeholder engagement, data acquisition and management, modeling and validation, and scenario development. Case studies are provided to highlight crosscutting lessons that could inform enhanced load modeling and forecasting across different country settings. Though this work presents best practices resulting from support to the PDOE, the list is by no means exhaustive—nor is it meant to be prescriptive.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Electroweak-like baryogenesis with new chiral matter

We propose a framework where a phase transition associated with a gauge symmetry breaking that occurs (not far) above the electroweak scale sets a stage for baryogenesis similar to the electroweak baryogenesis in the Standard Model. A concrete realization utilizes the breaking of SU(2) R × U(1) X → U(1) Y . New chiral fermions charged under the extended gauge symmetry have nonzero lepton numbers, which makes the B - L symmetry anomalous. The new lepton sector contains a large flavor-dependent CP violation, similar to the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa phase, without inducing sizable electric dipole moments of the Standard Model particles. A bubble wall dynamics associated with the first-order phase transition and SU(2) R sphaleron processes generate a lepton asymmetry, which is transferred into a baryon asymmetry via the ordinary electroweak sphaleron process. Unlike the Standard Model electroweak baryogenesis, the new phase transition can be of the strong first order and the new CP violation is not significantly suppressed by Yukawa couplings, so that the observed asymmetry can be produced. The model can be probed by collider searches for new particles and the observation of gravitational waves. One of the new leptons becomes a dark matter candidate. The model can be also embedded into a left-right symmetric theory to solve the strong CP problem.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Theory of the auroral magnetosphere

The aurora has come to be understood as a manifestation of energy transfer and plasma transfer from the solar wind to the magnetosphere. The auroral oval seems to be a mapping of the boundary layer that lies just inside the magnetospheric surface, which consists of the magnetopause and neutral sheet. The auroral oval is consequently a region of reversal for the meridional (r,8) component of the magnetospheric convection electric field and thus a region of strong shear in the plasma drift velocity field. The velocity shear seems to account for the formation of eddies in the auroral "curtain". Moreover, the Kinematical impedance associated with hot auroral plasma perpendicular electric field across a narrow region of latitude to occur without the formation of a large parallel electric field. The signature of the parallel electric field is such as to produce upgoing ion beams and precipitating electron beams in the PM (afternoon-evening) sector of local time, and to account for the polarity of Region-1 currents as a function of local time.

Schulz, M.↗

Caribbean Energy Sector Cybersecurity Forum: Modernizing and Securing the Grid

This presentation on Modernizing and Securing the Grid brought together regional and NREL cybersecurity expertise for USAID's Caribbean Energy Sector Cybersecurity Forum. The presentation's overall purpose was to provide a deep dive into the changes underway in the electric grid, including the greater integration of renewables and distributed energy resources. The presentation also reviewed best practices for building cybersecurity into modern energy systems, including in the areas of vendor assessment and supply chain cybersecurity.

Caribbean↗

NREL's 100% Clean Electricity by 2035 Study

The 100% Clean Electricity by 2035 Study evaluates a variety of scenarios that achieve a 100% clean electricity system (defined as zero net greenhouse gas emissions) in 2035 that could put the United States on a path to economywide net-zero emissions by 2050. The scenarios focus primarily on the supply of clean electricity, including technical requirements, challenges, and benefit and cost implications. The study results highlight multiple pathways to 100% clean electricity in which benefits exceed costs. The study does not comprehensively evaluate all options to achieve 100% clean electricity, and it focuses largely on supply-side options. This summary deck provides a high-level overview of the key findings.

clean electricity↗

Impacts of Renewable Energy and Green Hydrogen Policies on Uttar Pradesh's Power Sector Future: Additional Modeling Scenarios to Explore Hydrogen Flexibility [Slides]

This slide deck is part of a broader program focused on supporting Indian states with long-term power system planning. More information about this program can be found at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's "Supporting India's States With Renewable Energy Integration" web page at https://www.nrel.gov/international/india-renewable-energy-integration.html. The power sector in Uttar Pradesh, India's most populous state, is poised to transform over the next few decades due to a combination of national and state-level policies impacting both the supply and demand of electricity. The Government of Uttar Pradesh has policies and plans to develop in-state solar PV, pumped storage hydropower, and green hydrogen. Power system policymakers and utilities in Uttar Pradesh are faced with the challenges of planning a system that incorporates increasing amounts of renewable energy and storage resources, meets rising electricity demand due to economic development and green hydrogen production, and satisfies operational and reliability requirements. To support these various objectives, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), RMI, and the Uttar Pradesh New and Renewable Energy Development Agency (UPNEDA) evaluated the least-cost pathways for the state's power sector through 2050. NREL developed a capacity expansion model that identifies investment and operational decisions for every year (2024-2050) for all of India, with detailed representation for the state of Uttar Pradesh, which can provide a framework for recurring planning studies. The purpose of this slide deck is to supplement the main study (published in May 2024) with additional modeling scenarios to explore hydrogen flexibility.

08 HYDROGEN↗

A Review on Simulation Platforms for Agent-Based Modeling in Electrified Transportation

As the use of combustion engine vehicles plays a deciding role in global warming, we can observe a trend to replace them with electric vehicles (EV) driven by new environmentally conscious policies and increasing technological capabilities. With improvements in driving range and reduction in prices come new challenges that may hamper the progress towards complete battery driven transportation. A major challenge for the increasing EV adoption is the planning of extensions to existing infrastructure or the inclusion of new infrastructure components in the planning process. This demands increasingly complex planning tools that can simulate the interplay between different stakeholders in modern transportation scenarios such as EVs, charging stations, energy providers, and general transportation participants. Simulation platforms for agent-based modeling in transportation have been developed as effective interactive tools that allow planners to explore different trade-offs across different scenarios with the ability to simulate the impact of policy or infrastructure decisions on the different stakeholders in the simulation. This article surveys several of the major simulation platforms that include modern EV-based forms of transportation and allow the simulation of relevant infrastructure components alongside the well established transportation simulations. These tools allow researchers to analyze expected traffic flow, identify possible charging station locations based on area demand, predict electrical grid demand, and more. Here this survey intends to make it easier for researchers to identify and apply a simulation platform in the context of supporting the increasing electrification of the transportation sector, enabling more efficient simulation and planning capabilities in this domain.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Assessing the Key Requirements for 450 GW of Renewable Capacity in India by 2030

In this policy brief, we assess the prerequisites for India to achieve 450 GW of solar and wind cumulative installed capacity by 2030. We examine requirements such as availability of land, new transmission buildout, financing and pace of deployment, as well as the impact on grid reliability and cost of generation. We also examine the impact of policies promoting domestic manufacturing. Deploying 307 GW of solar and 142 GW of wind capacity would use only about 1.25% of land that is categorized as barren or waste, which is equivalent to about 0.22% of the total land area in India. Because of the good solar resource across large swaths of India, the solar energy buildout—and thus the land use—potentially can be spread out. India would need about 280 GW of new interstate transmission capacity by 2030, a little over double the transmission expansion that has already been planned through 2025. However, most of the new transmission buildout is driven by the near doubling of electricity demand between 2020 and 2030. The total investment needed (in generation and storage resources) to realize this target is around USD 26.5 billion annually, which is 20% lower than the annual investment in India’s power sector across all generation resources between 2015 and 2019. We estimate that using domestically manufactured panels instead of imported panels may increase solar PPA prices by about 10%–15% in the medium term, but solar power would still be a cost-effective way to meet growing demand instead of building new fossil fuel-based power plants, because the price of electricity from solar plants has fallen below the variable cost of most existing coal units. To reach this target, India would need to build about 35–40 GW of solar and wind capacity every year in this decade. India’s power sector achieved a pace of capacity addition of 22 GW per year in the previous decade (including thermal and renewable). Policy and regulatory measures would be needed to increase the pace of deployment.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

When Do Different Scenarios of Future Electricity Demand Start to Meaningfully Diverge?

Climate and population change are known to influence electricity demand, but what is the impact of uncertainty in climate and population projections on electricity demand in the United States (U.S.) over the next 30 years? This question has important implications for investment decisions in the energy sector, which are typically made using a 15- to 30-year time horizon. Simply put, if future climate and population scenarios do not lead to meteorological conditions and subsequent energy demands that are distinctly different within the first 30 years then, for the purposes of investment decisions, it may not matter which potential pathway we are most likely on. The Integrated, Multisector, Multiscale Modeling (IM3) project has generated a wide, yet plausible range of 21st century high-resolution climate and population scenarios for the U.S. The IM3 projections span two climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5) and two population scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3 and 5). For each of the climate scenarios, we reflect a range of climate model uncertainty by using boundary conditions from a set of climate models that are hotter and colder than the multi-model mean. In total there are eight (2 x 2 x 2) IM3 scenarios. This work explores a basic question: When do future climate and energy outcomes start to meaningfully diverge across the eight scenarios? The analysis is done on both the raw meteorology time-series from each scenario as well as a time-series of projected total electricity demand generated using IM3's Total ELectricity Loads (TELL) model. We also explore the spatial heterogeneity of the divergence signal to identify regions of the country that may be more or less path dependent.

Climate Change↗