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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 667 records · Page 37
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Simulation-based inference for parameter estimation of complex watershed simulators

High-resolution, spatially distributed process-based (PB) simulators are widely employed in the study of complex catchment processes and their responses to a changing climate. However, calibrating these PB simulators using observed data remains a significant challenge due to several persistent issues, including the following: (1) intractability stemming from the computational demands and complex responses of simulators, which renders infeasible calculation of the conditional probability of parameters and data, and (2) uncertainty stemming from the choice of simplified representations of complex natural hydrologic processes. Here, we demonstrate how simulation-based inference (SBI) can help address both of these challenges with respect to parameter estimation. SBI uses a learned mapping between the parameter space and observed data to estimate parameters for the generation of calibrated simulations. To demonstrate the potential of SBI in hydrologic modeling, we conduct a set of synthetic experiments to infer two common physical parameters – Manning's coefficient and hydraulic conductivity – using a representation of a snowmelt-dominated catchment in Colorado, USA. We introduce novel deep-learning (DL) components to the SBI approach, including an “emulator” as a surrogate for the PB simulator to rapidly explore parameter responses. We also employ a density-based neural network to represent the joint probability of parameters and data without strong assumptions about its functional form. While addressing intractability, we also show that, if the simulator does not represent the system under study well enough, SBI can yield unreliable parameter estimates. Approaches to adopting the SBI framework for cases in which multiple simulator(s) may be adequate are introduced using a performance-weighting approach. The synthetic experiments presented here test the performance of SBI, using the relationship between the surrogate and PB simulators as a proxy for the real case.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Reconstruction of Electron and Ion Distribution Functions in a Magnetotail Reconnection Diffusion Region

In the diffusion region of magnetotail reconnection, particle distributions are highly structured, exhibiting triangular shapes and multiple striations that deviate dramatically from the Maxwellian distribution. Fully kinetic simulations have been demonstrated to be capable of producing the essential structures of the observed distribution functions, yet are computationally not feasible for 3D global simulations. The fluid models used for large-scale simulations, on the other hand, do not have the kinetic physics necessary for describing reconnection accurately. Our study aims to bridge fully kinetic and fluid simulations by quantifying the information required to capture the non-Maxwellian features in the distributions underlying the closures used in the fluid code. Here, we compare the results of fully kinetic simulations with observed electron velocity distributions in a magnetotail reconnection diffusion region and use the maximum entropy model to reconstruct electron and ion distributions using various numbers of moments obtained from the simulation. Our results indicate that using only local moments, the maximum entropy model can reproduce many of the features of the distributions: (1) the electron outflow distribution with a tilted triangular structure is reproduced with 21 or more moments in agreement with Ng et al. and (2) counterstreaming distributions can be captured with the 35-moment model when the separation in velocity space between the populations is large.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Distributed Parareal in Time with Adaptive Coarse Solver for Large Scale Power System Simulations

This paper describes a distributed Parareal in time algorithm with the adaptive coarse solver. In the distributed algorithm, the propagation of a coarse solution is distributed among processors in addition to the fine solution propagation. In the adaptive coarse solver the complexity of the model is changed based on the size of generator rotor angle deviation. In addition, non-iterative approach to model a ZIP load is presented. The proposed method is tested on the large-scale 5617-machine 70285-bus Eastern Interconnection system.

Osipov, Denis↗
DOE OSTI2014

Simulated galaxy interactions as probes of merger spectral energy distributions

We present the first systematic comparison of ultraviolet-millimeter spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of observed and simulated interacting galaxies. Our sample is drawn from the Spitzer Interacting Galaxy Survey and probes a range of galaxy interaction parameters. We use 31 galaxies in 14 systems which have been observed with Herschel, Spitzer, GALEX, and 2MASS. We create a suite of GADGET-3 hydrodynamic simulations of isolated and interacting galaxies with stellar masses comparable to those in our sample of interacting galaxies. Photometry for the simulated systems is then calculated with the SUNRISE radiative transfer code for comparison with the observed systems. For most of the observed systems, one or more of the simulated SEDs match reasonably well. The best matches recover the infrared luminosity and the star formation rate of the observed systems, and the more massive systems preferentially match SEDs from simulations of more massive galaxies. The most morphologically distorted systems in our sample are best matched to the simulated SEDs that are close to coalescence, while less evolved systems match well with the SEDs over a wide range of interaction stages, suggesting that an SED alone is insufficient for identifying the interaction stage except during the most active phases in strongly interacting systems. This result is supported by our finding that the SEDs calculated for simulated systems vary little over the interaction sequence.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Development of Extended Period Pressure-Dependent Demand Water Distribution Models

Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) has used modeling and simulation of water distribution systems for N-1 contingency analyses to assess criticality of water system assets. Critical components considered in these analyses include pumps, tanks, and supply sources, in addition to critical pipes or aqueducts. A contingency represents the complete removal of the asset from system operation. For each contingency, an extended period simulation (EPS) is run using EPANET. An EPS simulates water system behavior over a time period, typically at least 24 hours. It assesses the ability of a system to respond and recover from asset disruption through distributed storage in tanks throughout the system. Contingencies of concern are identified as those in which some portion of the water system has unmet delivery requirements. A delivery requirement is defined as an aggregation of water demands within a service area, similar to an electric power demand. The metric used to identify areas of unmet delivery requirement in these studies is a pressure threshold of 15 pounds per square inch (psi). This pressure threshold is used because it is below the required pressure for fire protection. Any location in the model with pressure that drops below this threshold at any time during an EPS is considered to have unmet service requirements and is used to determine cascading consequences. The outage area for a contingency is the aggregation of all service areas with a pressure below the threshold at any time during the EPS.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Rainfall From Resolved Rather Than Parameterized Processes Better Represents the Present‐Day and Climate Change Response of Moderate Rates in the Community Atmosphere Model

Abstract Deficiencies in the parameterizations of convection used in global climate models often lead to a distorted representation of the simulated rainfall intensity distribution (i.e., too much rainfall from weak rain rates). While encouraging improvements in high percentile rainfall intensity have been found as the horizontal resolution of the Community Atmosphere Model is increased to ∼25 km, we demonstrate no corresponding improvement in the moderate rain rates that generate the majority of accumulated rainfall. Using a statistical framework designed to emphasize links between precipitation intensity and accumulated rainfall beyond just the frequency distribution, we show that CAM cannot realistically simulate moderate rain rates, and cannot capture their intensification with climate change, even as resolution is increased. However, by separating the parameterized convective and large‐scale resolved contributions to total rainfall, we find that the intensity, geographic pattern, and climate change response of CAM's large‐scale rain rates are more consistent with observations (TRMM 3B42), superparameterization, and theoretical expectations, despite issues with parameterized convection. Increasing CAM's horizontal resolution does improve the representation of total rainfall intensity, but not due to changes in the intensity of large‐scale rain rates, which are surprisingly insensitive to horizontal resolution. Rather, improvements occur through an increase in the relative contribution of the large‐scale component to the total amount of accumulated rainfall. Analysis of sensitivities to convective timescale and entrainment rate confirm the importance of these parameters in the possible development of scale‐aware parameterizations, but also reveal unrecognized trade‐offs from the entanglement of precipitation frequency and total amount.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

City-Wide Distributed Roof-Top Photovoltaic System Adoption Forecast, Grid Impact Simulation, & Neighborhood Microgrid Contribution Assessment

The adoption of distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems grew significantly in recent years. Market projections anticipate future growth for both residential and commercial installations. To understand grid impacts associated with distributed PV, useful hosting capacity studies require accurate representations of the spatial distribution of PV adoptions. Prediction of PV locations and numbers depends on median income data, building use zoning maps, and permit records to understand existing trends and predict future adoption rates and locations throughout an entire city. Using the PV adoption data, advanced and realistic simulations were performed to capture the distributed PV impacts on the grid. Also, using graph theory community detection hundreds of neighborhood microgrids can be discovered for the entire city by identifying densely connected loads that are sparsely connected to other communities. Then, based on the PV adoption predictions, this work identified the contribution of PV within each of the newly discovered graph theory defined microgrid communities.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ion energy distribution in an electron beam ion trap inferred from simulations of the trapped ion cloud

For this work, we have inferred the energy distribution of trapped ions in an electron beam ion trap (EBIT) from simulations of the spatial distribution of Fe 13+ ions and a comparison with measured visible light images of the ion cloud. We simulated the cloud of Fe 13+ ions by computing ion trajectories in the EBIT for different ion energy distributions used to initialize the trajectories. We then performed a least-squares fit to infer the ion energy distribution that best reproduced the measured ion cloud. These best-fit distributions were typically non-Maxwellian. For electron beam energies of 395–475 eV and electron beam currents of 1–9 mA, we find that the average ion energy is in the range of 10–300 eV. We also find that the average ion energy increases with increasing beam current approximately as $\langle$E$\rangle$ ≈ 25 I e eV, where I e is the electron beam current in mA. We have also compared our results to Maxwell-Boltzmann-distribution ion clouds. We find that our best-fit non-thermal distributions have an $\langle$E$\rangle$ that is less than half that of the T from the best-fit Maxwell-Boltzmann distributions ($\langle$E$\rangle$/q)/T=0.41 ± 0.05.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analyzing impact of $\mathrm{DER}$ on $\mathrm{FIDVR}$ - comparison of $\mathrm{EMT}$ simulation of a combined transmission and distribution grid with aggregated positive sequence models

The increase in percentage of distributed energy resources (DERs) brings in a degree of uncertainty in bulk power system planning and operations. Further, the presence of 1 - φ induction motors introduces the possibility of motor stalling and fault induced delayed voltage recovery (FIDVR). With newer versions of IEEE Std 1547™ there can be the opportunity to obtain dynamic voltage support from DERs. In this report, the impact of DERs providing dynamic voltage on the dynamic behavior of 1 - φ induction motors is examined in detail along with an exploration of the need for simulation platforms that go beyond positive sequence. The studies discussed here are carried out both in detailed electromagnetic time domain and in positive sequence domain for comparison.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2015

CFD Modeling and Image Analysis of Exhaled Aerosols due to a Growing Bronchial Tumor: towards Non-Invasive Diagnosis and Treatment of Respiratory Obstructive Diseases

Diagnosis and prognosis of tumorigenesis are generally performed with CT, PET, or biopsy. Such methods are accurate, but have the limitations of high cost and posing additional health risks to patients. In this study, we introduce an alternative computer aided diagnostic tool that can locate malignant sites caused by tumorigenesis in a non-invasive and low-cost way. Our hypothesis is that exhaled aerosol distribution is unique to lung structure and is sensitive to airway structure vari-ations. With appropriate approaches, it is possible to locate the disease site, determine the disease severity, and subsequently formulate a targeted drug delivery plan to treat the disease. This study numerically evaluated the feasibility of the proposed breath test in an image-based lung model with varying pathological stages of a bronchial squamous tumor. Large eddy simulations and a Lagran-gian tracking approach were used to model respiratory airflows and aerosol dynamics. Respira-tions of tracer aerosols of 1 µm at a flow rate of 20 L/min were simulated, with the distributions of exhaled aerosols recorded on a filter at the mouth exit. Aerosol patterns were quantified with multiple analytical techniques such as concentration disparity, spatial scanning and fractal analysis. We demonstrated that a growing bronchial tumor induced notable variations in both the airflow and exhaled aerosol distribution. These variations became more apparent with increasing tumor severity. The exhaled aerosols exhibited distinctive pattern parameters such as spatial probability, fractal dimension, and multifractal spectrum. Results of this study show that morphometric measures of the exhaled aerosol pattern can be used to detect and monitor the pathological states of respiratory diseases in the upper airway. The proposed breath test also has the potential to locate the site of the disease, which is critical in developing a personalized, site-specific drug de-livery protocol.

Aerosol breath test↗
DOE OSTI2011

ICRF Mode Conversion Studies with Phase Contrast Imaging and Comparisons with Full-Wave Simulations

Waves in the ion cyclotron range of frequencies (ICRF) are widely used to heat toka-mak plasmas. In a multi-ion-species plasma, the FW converts to ion cyclotron waves (ICW) and ion Bernstein waves (IBW) around the ion-ion hybrid resonance (mode conversion). The mode converted wave is of interest as an actuator to optimise plasma performance through flow drive and current drive. Numerical simulations are essential to describe these processes accurately, and it is important that these simulation codes be validated. On Alcator C-Mod, direct measurements of the mode converted waves have been performed using Phase Contrast Imaging (PCI), which measures the line-integrated electron density fluctuations. The results were compared to full-wave simulations AORSA and TORIC. AORSA is coupled to a Fokker-Planck code CQL3D for self-consistent simulation of the wave electric field and the minority distribution function. The simulation results are compared to PCI measurements using synthetic diagnostic. The experiments were performed in D-H and D-{sup 3}He plasmas over a wide range of ion species concentrations. The simulations agreed well with the measurements in the strong absorption regime. However, the measured fluctuation intensity was smaller by 1-2 orders of magnitudes in the weakly abosorbing regime, and a realistic description of the plasma edge including dissipation and antenna geometry may be required in these cases.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2012

Simulating the Household Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Distribution and its Electric Distribution Network Impacts

This paper presents a multi agent-based simulation framework for modeling spatial distribution of plug-in hybrid electric vehicle ownership at local residential level, discovering plug-in hybrid electric vehicle hot zones where ownership may quickly increase in the near future, and estimating the impacts of the increasing plug-in hybrid electric vehicle ownership on the local electric distribution network with different charging strategies. We use Knox County, Tennessee as a case study to highlight the simulation results of the agent-based simulation framework.

Cui, Xiaohui↗
DOE OSTI2014

THE DISTRIBUTION OF SATELLITES AROUND CENTRAL GALAXIES IN A COSMOLOGICAL HYDRODYNAMICAL SIMULATION

Observations have shown that the spatial distribution of satellite galaxies is not random, but rather is aligned with the major axes of central galaxies (CGs). The strength of the alignment is dependent on the properties of both the satellites and centrals. Theoretical studies using dissipationless N-body simulations are limited by their inability to directly predict the shape of CGs. Using hydrodynamical simulations including gas cooling, star formation, and feedback, we carry out a study of galaxy alignment and its dependence on the galaxy properties predicted directly from the simulations. We found that the observed alignment signal is well produced, as is the color dependence: red satellites and red centrals both show stronger alignments than their blue counterparts. The reason for the stronger alignment of red satellites is that most of them stay in the inner region of the dark matter halo where the shape of the CG better traces the dark matter distribution. The dependence of alignment on the color of CGs arises from the halo mass dependence, since the alignment between the shape of the central stellar component and the inner halo increases with halo mass. We also find that the alignment of satellites is most strongly dependent on their metallicity, suggesting that the metallicity of satellites, rather than color, is a better tracer of galaxy alignment on small scales. This could be tested in future observational studies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

MEASURING TYPE IA SUPERNOVA POPULATIONS OF STRETCH AND COLOR AND PREDICTING DISTANCE BIASES

Simulations of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) surveys are a critical tool for correcting biases in the analysis of SNe Ia to infer cosmological parameters. Large-scale Monte Carlo simulations include a thorough treatment of observation history, measurement noise, intrinsic scatter models, and selection effects. In this Letter, we improve simulations with a robust technique to evaluate the underlying populations of SN Ia color and stretch that correlate with luminosity. In typical analyses, the standardized SN Ia brightness is determined from linear “Tripp” relations between the light curve color and luminosity and between stretch and luminosity. However, this solution produces Hubble residual biases because intrinsic scatter and measurement noise result in measured color and stretch values that do not follow the Tripp relation. We find a 10 σ bias (up to 0.3 mag) in Hubble residuals versus color and 5 σ bias (up to 0.2 mag) in Hubble residuals versus stretch in a joint sample of 920 spectroscopically confirmed SN Ia from PS1, SNLS, SDSS, and several low- z surveys. After we determine the underlying color and stretch distributions, we use simulations to predict and correct the biases in the data. We show that removing these biases has a small impact on the low- z sample, but reduces the intrinsic scatter σ {sub int} from 0.101 to 0.083 in the combined PS1, SNLS, and SDSS sample. Past estimates of the underlying populations were too broad, leading to a small bias in the equation of state of dark energy w of Δ w = 0.005.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area

We perform a land-surface model intercomparison to investigate how the simulation of permafrost area on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) varies among six modern stand-alone land-surface models (CLM4.5, CoLM, ISBA, JULES, LPJ-GUESS, UVic). Here, we also examine the variability in simulated permafrost area and distribution introduced by five different methods of diagnosing permafrost (from modeled monthly ground temperature, mean annual ground and air temperatures, air and surface frost indexes). There is good agreement (99 to 135 × 10 4 km 2 ) between the two diagnostic methods based on air temperature which are also consistent with the observation-based estimate of actual permafrost area (101 ×10 4 km 2 ). However the uncertainty (1 to 128 × 10 4 km 2 ) using the three methods that require simulation of ground temperature is much greater. Moreover simulated permafrost distribution on the TP is generally only fair to poor for these three methods (diagnosis of permafrost from monthly, and mean annual ground temperature, and surface frost index), while permafrost distribution using air-temperature-based methods is generally good. Model evaluation at field sites highlights specific problems in process simulations likely related to soil texture specification, vegetation types and snow cover. Models are particularly poor at simulating permafrost distribution using the definition that soil temperature remains at or below 0°C for 24 consecutive months, which requires reliable simulation of both mean annual ground temperatures and seasonal cycle, and hence is relatively demanding. Although models can produce better permafrost maps using mean annual ground temperature and surface frost index, analysis of simulated soil temperature profiles reveals substantial biases. The current generation of land-surface models need to reduce biases in simulated soil temperature profiles before reliable contemporary permafrost maps and predictions of changes in future permafrost distribution can be made for the Tibetan Plateau.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Connecting galaxy evolution in clusters with their radial profiles and phase space distribution: results from the IllustrisTNG hydrodynamical simulations

ABSTRACT We study the population of galaxies around galaxy clusters in the hydrodynamic simulation suite IllustrisTNG 300-1 to study the signatures of their evolutionary history on observable properties. We measure the radial number density profile, phase space distribution, and splashback radius for galaxies of different masses and colours over the redshift range z = 0−1. The three primary physical effects which shape the galaxy distribution within clusters are the galaxy quenching, angular momentum distribution, and dynamical friction. We find three distinct populations of galaxies by applying a Gaussian mixture model to their distribution in colour and mass. They have distinct evolutionary histories and leave distinct signatures on their distribution around cluster haloes. We find that low-mass red galaxies show the most concentrated distribution in clusters and the largest splashback radius, while high-mass red galaxies show a less concentrated distribution and a smaller splashback radius. Blue galaxies, which mostly quench into the low-mass red population, have the shallowest distribution within the clusters, with those on radial orbits quenched rapidly before reaching pericentre. Comparison with the distribution of galaxies from the Dark Energy Survey survey around Sunyaev–Zeldovich clusters from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope and South Pole Telescope surveys shows evidence for differences in galaxy evolution between simulations and data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Daylight simulation workflows incorporating measured bidirectional scattering distribution functions

Daylight predictions of architectural spaces depend on good estimates of light transfer through skylights, windows and other fenestration systems. For clear glazing and painted surfaces, parametric transmission and reflection models have proven adequate, but there are many cases where light-scattering, semi-specular shading and daylighting materials defy simple characterization. Something as commonplace as fabric roller shades and venetian blinds may turn daylight prediction into guesswork, and numerous advanced systems on the market tuned specifically to enhance daylight are not sufficiently characterized to distinguish their performance. In this paper, we describe new tools available to handle novel and specialized fabrics, materials, and devices using data-driven modelling of bi-directional scattering distribution functions (BSDFs). These representations are usually tabulated at constant or adjustable angular resolution for efficient point-in-time and annual daylight simulations. We describe a variety of BSDF simulation workflows, including some of the tools and methods that make advanced analysis possible, and highlight some of the current challenges. We conclude with a discussion of future work and how such data might be created and shared worldwide.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗