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At least 667 records · Page 37

Anomaly detection of turbopump vibration in Space Shuttle Main Engine using statistics and neural networks

The statistical and neural networks methods have been applied to investigate the feasibility in detecting anomalies in turbopump vibration of SSME. The anomalies are detected based on the amplitude of peaks of fundamental and harmonic frequencies in the power spectral density. These data are reduced to the proper format from sensor data measured by strain gauges and accelerometers. Both methods are feasible to detect the vibration anomalies. The statistical method requires sufficient data points to establish a reasonable statistical distribution data bank. This method is applicable for on-line operation. The neural networks method also needs to have enough data basis to train the neural networks. The testing procedure can be utilized at any time so long as the characteristics of components remain unchanged.

Lo, C. F.↗

Efficient Subset Simulation using Hamiltonian Neural Network enhanced Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods

The Monte Carlo method delivers an unbiased estimate of the probability of failure. However, the variance of the estimate depends on the number of evaluated samples. This number must be very large for estimations of a low probability of failure. If the evaluation of each sample is computationally expensive, the crude Monte Carlo simulation strategy is impracticable. Therefore, subset simulations are used to reduce the required number of evaluations. Subset simulations require a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler, such as the random walk Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. The algorithm, however, struggles with sampling in low-probability regions, especially if they are narrow. As a consequence, advanced Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations have been developed. In particular, the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method explores the target distribution rapidly. Driven by the idea of Hamiltonian dynamics, this sampler provides a non-random walk through the target distribution. The incorporation of subset simulation and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods has shown promising results for reliability analysis. One downside of the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method is that gradient evaluations are computationally expensive, especially when dealing with high-dimensional problems and evaluating long trajectories. We show that integrating Hamiltonian neural networks in Hamiltonian Monte Carlo simulations significantly speeds up the sampling task. Furthermore, the enhancement of adaptive trajectory length within the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo results in the efficient proposal of the following states. Based on this recent enhancement, we provide a fast sampling strategy for subset simulations using Hamiltonian neural networks to replace the evaluation of the gradient and significantly speed up the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo simulation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Searching for optimal THz generation through calculations of the asymmetry of photoelectron momentum distributions by an improved strong-field-approximation method

From the solution of the time-dependent Schrödinger equation (TDSE), it has been shown that in a two-color laser pulse the relative phase that optimizes terahertz (THz) radiation also optimizes the asymmetry of the angular distribution of photoelectrons. Here, in this work, we show that a second-order strong-field approximation can accurately calculate the asymmetry of photoelectrons and thus can locate the phase delay that optimizes THz generation, doing so four orders of magnitude faster than TDSE calculations. We further trace that this is possible because THz emission originates from a free-free radiative transition between the rescattered electron and the target ion, similar to other electron-ion collisions in the laser field, e.g., high-harmonic generation and nonsequential double ionization. Our results pave the way to locate the optimal phase delay for any typical laser pulses for maximal THz generation in the laboratory.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Reconfiguration of power grids during abnormal conditions using reclosers and distributed energy resources

Apparatus and methods are disclosed for restoring operation of a power grid comprising a plurality of reclosers and distributed energy resources (DERs) responsive to abnormal conditions by determining and implementing a reconfiguration for the power grid. The reconfiguration can specify respective new statuses for one or more of the reclosers and/or respective quantities of reactive power to be supplied by one or more of the DERs. The reconfiguration can be determined based on a plurality of constraints using an objective function, the constraints being determined based at least in part on recloser status data and/or DER power generation capability data. Respective cleared quantities of reactive power for the DERs to supply to the reconfigured power grid can be determined via a transactive control scheme, and the reconfiguration can be updated prior to implementation based on the results of the transactive control scheme.

Radhakrishnan, Nikitha↗

Systematic study of the validity of the eikonal model including uncertainties

Nuclear reactions at intermediate beam energies are often interpreted using the eikonal model. In the analysis of complex reaction probes, where few-body reaction methods are needed, the eikonal method may be used as an efficient way for describing the fragment-target reaction process. In this work, we perform a systematic study to test the validity of the eikonal approximation for nucleon-nucleus reactions. We also quantify uncertainties due to the nucleon optical potential on reaction observables. We inspect the validity of the eikonal model and its semiclassical correction by comparing it to exact solutions (obtained from solving the optical-model equation with a finite-differences method) for a wide range of reactions. We also study the effect of relativistic corrections, both kinematic and dynamic, by effectively incorporating the relativistic effects at intermediate energies. The uncertainties from a Bayesian global optical potential (KDUQ) are propagated to the observables of interest. Our study includes neutron and proton reactions on 27 Al , 40 Ca , 90 Zr , and 208 Pb , for a wide range of energies 𝐸 lab = 0–400 MeV. We calculate neutron-total cross sections (elastic and reactions) as well as proton-absorption cross sections as a function of beam energy, using the eikonal model, the eikonal model with a semiclassical correction, and the exact solution. Here, we also compute angular distributions for the methods above. Our results show that for the proton-absorption cross section, the eikonal model can be used down to around 60 MeV and the semiclassical correction extends its use to 30 MeV. However, the validity of the eikonal model for the neutron-total cross section only goes down to ≈120 MeV, a range extended to ≈ 50 MeV when using the semiclassical correction. We find the semiclassical correction to the eikonal model to be less effective in describing the angular distributions. The 1⁢𝜎 uncertainty intervals on the observables we studied is less than 5% for most of the energies considered, but increases rapidly for higher energies, namely energies outside the range of KDUQ (𝐸 lab > 200MeV).

Cluster models↗

Mesoscale simulation of granular materials under weak shock compaction–pore size distribution effects

This research established a systematic method to generate various pore-size distributions (PSDs) and studied the effect of PSDs on the shock compaction response of granular materials using two-dimensional mesoscale simulations under identical porosity. Simulations utilized various PSDs for three particle shapes (circle, ellipse, and square). Contacting particle configurations using three PSDs, characterized by spatially uniform distributed pores to heterogeneous distributed pores, and non-contacting particle configurations under a single case of PSD were tested. The PSD of generated particle sets was characterized using coordination number, mean diameter, and bimodality coefficient as statistical metrics. Mesoscale simulations showed that regardless of the conditions of pore distributions, shock compaction of granular materials consistently demonstrates a precursor, shock compaction front, and end. However, the shock compaction velocity of contacting particles was dependent on the PSDs despite the constant initial porosity. The compaction velocity was faster in particle configurations with relatively uniform pore distributions than in heterogeneous pore distributions, which our study demonstrated can be attributed to particle rearrangement during compaction. Circular-shaped particles had high sensitivity in shock compaction response to the various PSDs. Furthermore, a contacting particle configuration tended to propagate the shock compaction wave relatively faster than particles that were in a non-contact configuration. This study established the relative importance of considering PSD as a metric over the coordination number in studies of the shock compaction response of granular materials. Further, insights are provided on the evolving shock substructure to characterize the shock compaction response of granular materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Bistatic-radar estimation of surface-slope probability distributions with applications to the moon.

A method for extracting surface-slope frequency distributions from bistatic-radar data has been developed and applied to the lunar surface. Telemetry transmissions from orbiting Apollo spacecraft were received on the earth after reflection from the lunar surface. The echo-frequency spectrum was related analytically to the probability distribution of lunar slopes. Standard regression techniques were used to solve the inverse problem of finding slope distributions from observed echo-frequency spectra. Data taken simultaneously at two wavelengths, 13 and 116 cm, have yielded diverse slope statistics.

Parker, M. N.↗

Determination of meteor flux distribution over the celestial sphere

A new method of determination of meteor flux density distribution over the celestial sphere is discussed. The flux density was derived from observations by radar together with measurements of angles of arrival of radio waves reflected from meteor trails. The role of small meteor showers over the sporadic background is shown.

Andreev, V. V.↗

Deriving spatially explicit direct and indirect interaction networks from animal movement data

Abstract Quantifying spatiotemporally explicit interactions within animal populations facilitates the understanding of social structure and its relationship with ecological processes. Data from animal tracking technologies (Global Positioning Systems [“GPS”]) can circumvent longstanding challenges in the estimation of spatiotemporally explicit interactions, but the discrete nature and coarse temporal resolution of data mean that ephemeral interactions that occur between consecutive GPS locations go undetected. Here, we developed a method to quantify individual and spatial patterns of interaction using continuous‐time movement models (CTMMs) fit to GPS tracking data. We first applied CTMMs to infer the full movement trajectories at an arbitrarily fine temporal scale before estimating interactions, thus allowing inference of interactions occurring between observed GPS locations. Our framework then infers indirect interactions—individuals occurring at the same location, but at different times—while allowing the identification of indirect interactions to vary with ecological context based on CTMM outputs. We assessed the performance of our new method using simulations and illustrated its implementation by deriving disease‐relevant interaction networks for two behaviorally differentiated species, wild pigs ( Sus scrofa ) that can host African Swine Fever and mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) that can host chronic wasting disease. Simulations showed that interactions derived from observed GPS data can be substantially underestimated when temporal resolution of movement data exceeds 30‐min intervals. Empirical application suggested that underestimation occurred in both interaction rates and their spatial distributions. CTMM‐Interaction method, which can introduce uncertainties, recovered majority of true interactions. Our method leverages advances in movement ecology to quantify fine‐scale spatiotemporal interactions between individuals from lower temporal resolution GPS data. It can be leveraged to infer dynamic social networks, transmission potential in disease systems, consumer–resource interactions, information sharing, and beyond. The method also sets the stage for future predictive models linking observed spatiotemporal interaction patterns to environmental drivers.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Bi-directional reflectance of finite and infinite clouds

The transfer of solar irradiance in plane parallel and broken cloud fields is modeled using a Monte Carlo method. The angular distribution pattern of radiances exiting the cloud layer is studied with varying cloud geometries, optical thicknesses, cloudiness and solar zenith angles. A rather large anisotropy of the reflected flux is found, usually increasing with solar zenith angle and with patterns that strongly depend on cloud geometry. The main features are: a local maximum of reflected intensity in the forward direction for all cases; a limb darkening for the plane parallel case; and a limb brightening and a local maximum of reflected intensity in the backward direction for broken clouds. The method is used to study the cloud reflectance sensitivity to various parameters. A more precise description of cloud field internal and external structure is needed in order to obtain accurate bi directional reflectance diagrams.

Breon, Francois-Marie↗

A Bayesian Approach for Statistical–Physical Bulk Parameterization of Rain Microphysics. Part I: Scheme Description

A novel framework is proposed for the bulk parameterization of rain microphysics: the Bayesian Observationally Constrained Statistical–Physical Scheme (BOSS). It is designed to facilitate direct constraint by observations using Bayesian inference. BOSS combines existing process-level microphysical knowledge with flexible process rate formulations and parameters constrained by observations within a Bayesian framework. Furthermore, using a raindrop size distribution (DSD) normalization method that relates DSD moments to one another via generalized power series, generalized multivariate power expressions are derived for the microphysical process rates as functions of a set of prognostic DSD moments. The scheme is flexible and can utilize any number and combination of prognostic moments and any number of terms in the process rate formulations. This means that both uncertainty in parameter values and structural uncertainty associated with the process rate formulations can be investigated systematically, which is not possible using traditional schemes. In this paper, BOSS is compared to two- and three-moment versions of a traditional bulk rain microphysics scheme (denoted as MORR). It is demonstrated that some process formulations in MORR are analytically equivalent to the generalized power expressions in BOSS using one or two terms, while others are not. BOSS is able to replicate the behavior of MORR in idealized one-dimensional rainshaft tests, but with a much more flexible and systematic design. Part II of this study describes the application of BOSS to derive rain microphysical process rates and posterior parameter distributions in Bayesian experiments using Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling constrained by synthetic observations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Photo-orthotropic elasticity - A new technique for stress analysis of composites

This paper deals with the application of photoelastic methods to glass fiber reinforced plastics. The basic principles governing the photoelastic response in birefringent orthotropic composites are briefly reviewed. Then, three important aspects of photo-orthotropic elasticity, namely, photoelastic calibration, separation of principal stresses, and application to problems of engineering importance, are considered in detail. A new calibration specimen is proposed for determining the three independent photoelastic constants: an orthotropic half-plane subjected to a concentrated edge load. From the isochromatic response, the three stress-fringe values can be obtained by a least-squares procedure based on the theoretical stress distribution. Next, four methods of separating the principal stresses in birefringent composite models are proposed: the method of drilling small holes at the points of interest, the method of oblique incidence, the method of combining the transmitted photoelastic response with the reflected photoelastic response, and the method of birefringence dispersion.

Prabhakaran, R.↗

Parameterization of Vertical Cloud Distribution from C3M and MERRA Data Using ML Method

Clouds play a key role in regulating the hydrological cycle and the Earth's radiative energy budget. However, global climate models (GCMs) with a horizontal grid spacing on the order of 100 km have limitations in representing sub-grid cloud dynamics with spatial scales on the order of 1 km, leading to potential uncertainties in cloud radiative feedback on the global scale. In our research, we will leverage the capabilities of Deep Machine Learning (DML) methods to construct parameterizations of sub-grid volumetric cloud fraction (VCF), which is the frequency of occurrence on a grid volume accumulated in the horizontal and vertical directions. Our investigation delves into the intricate relationship between VCF obtained from the NASA CALIPSO-CloudSat-CERES-MODIS (CCCM) satellite observation data and 3-D MERRA-2 reanalysis meteorological profiling data (e.g., wind, relative humidity, temperature). Through a comprehensive one-year data training utilizing the Sequence to Sequence DML method, we have successfully disentangled the complicated cloud formation dynamics across diverse meteorological conditions through a day-to-day analysis framework. Preliminary findings reveal promising statistical agreements in geographical and vertical distributions and seasonal variations of volumetric cloud fraction between ML prediction and satellite measurements. These results underscore the aptitude of our DML model to discern underlying cloud physical processes and accurately represent sub-grid cloud formation dynamics. Additionally, we have also employed trained neural network to analyze uncertainties arising from errors in meteorological data, further enhancing the robustness of our VCF parameterization.

Shan Zeng↗

Electron emission produced by photointeractions in a slab target

The current density and energy spectrum of escaping electrons generated in a uniform plane slab target which is being irradiated by the gamma flux field of a nuclear reactor are calculated by using experimental gamma energy transfer coefficients, electron range and energy relations, and escape probability computations. The probability of escape and the average path length of escaping electrons are derived for an isotropic distribution of monoenergetic photons. The method of estimating the flux and energy distribution of electrons emerging from the surface is outlined, and a sample calculation is made for a 0.33-cm-thick tungsten target located next to the core of a nuclear reactor. The results are to be used as a guide in electron beam synthesis of reactor experiments.

Thinger, B. E.↗

Resource Assessment for Distributed Wind Energy: An Evaluation of Best-Practice Methods in the Continental US

Current wind resources within the United States (US) indicate a potential to profitably install nearly 1,400 gigawatts of distributed wind (DW) capacity. This amount is equivalent to over half of the United States’ current energy demand from electricity, making it enough to power millions of homes and businesses and replace countless fossil fuel-based generating plants. Despite the potential growth of DW in the US, deployments are presently hindered by a lack of confidence in resource estimation methods. One potential challenge is that smaller-scale turbines, with hub heights of 40 meters or less, are disproportionately impacted by obstacles such as buildings and vegetation. These obstacles may produce complex wake effects, best modeled with high-fidelity complex fluid dynamics (CFD) models that are too computationally expensive to use for routine siting and resource assessment. Thus, installers today make use of heuristics and simple equations to approximate the impact of obstacles while also leveraging long-term resource data from commercial or publicly available atmospheric models. This study evaluates these historical and commonly used methods alongside new lower-order obstacle models produced from CFD simulations and measurement-based bias correction. The preliminary results from this study show the importance of taking care in the choice and application of mesoscale atmospheric models and the significant value of bias correction using measurements from nearby meteorological towers. Detailed obstacle modeling provides only modest additional gains in performance and, in some cases, can add error, especially at sites where turbines have already been located to avoid obvious impact from upwind obstacles. These findings reinforce the importance of collecting in situ measurements and suggest that obstacle models may be better applied in practice to automated or computer-aided siting, rather than in economic wind resource assessments.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Microwave Imaging on Metal Objects

This final report for the project discusses the attempts to model, using different methods, microwave image reconstruction. Maximum Entropy Method was not successful. Attempts to use Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) got some good results after initial failure. SVD is based upon a theory of linear algebra, to the effect that any M X N Matrix A whose number of rows M is greater than or equal to its number of columns, N can be written as the product of an M X N column-orthogonal matrix U, an N X N diagonal Matrix, W, with m positive or zero elements (the singular values) and the transposition of an N X N orthogonal matrix V. In microwave imaging, the scattered fields can be expressed by the induced current distribution. The SVD method required more contiguous computer memory than was available. Work was also done on the Conjugate Gradient Method (CGM), which didn't work well when tried earlier. It was found that separation of the imaginary part and the real part during calculation may work. This work was considered incomplete as of the end of the grant period.

Tolliver, C. L.↗

Exploiting non-linear scales in galaxy–galaxy lensing and galaxy clustering: A forecast for the dark energy survey

ABSTRACT The combination of galaxy–galaxy lensing (GGL) and galaxy clustering is a powerful probe of low-redshift matter clustering, especially if it is extended to the non-linear regime. To this end, we use an N-body and halo occupation distribution (HOD) emulator method to model the redMaGiC sample of colour-selected passive galaxies in the Dark Energy Survey (DES), adding parameters that describe central galaxy incompleteness, galaxy assembly bias, and a scale-independent multiplicative lensing bias Alens. We use this emulator to forecast cosmological constraints attainable from the GGL surface density profile ΔΣ(rp) and the projected galaxy correlation function wp, gg(rp) in the final (Year 6) DES data set over scales $r_p=0.3\!-\!30.0\, h^{-1} \, \mathrm{Mpc}$. For a $3{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ prior on Alens we forecast precisions of $1.9{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$, $2.0{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$, and $1.9{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ on Ωm, σ8, and $S_8 \equiv \sigma _8\Omega _m^{0.5}$, marginalized over all halo occupation distribution (HOD) parameters as well as Alens. Adding scales $r_p=0.3\!-\!3.0\, h^{-1} \, \mathrm{Mpc}$ improves the S8 precision by a factor of ∼1.6 relative to a large scale ($3.0\!-\!30.0\, h^{-1} \, \mathrm{Mpc}$) analysis, equivalent to increasing the survey area by a factor of ∼2.6. Sharpening the Alens prior to $1{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ further improves the S8 precision to $1.1{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$, and it amplifies the gain from including non-linear scales. Our emulator achieves per cent-level accuracy similar to the projected DES statistical uncertainties, demonstrating the feasibility of a fully non-linear analysis. Obtaining precise parameter constraints from multiple galaxy types and from measurements that span linear and non-linear clustering offers many opportunities for internal cross-checks, which can diagnose systematics and demonstrate the robustness of cosmological results.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗