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At least 667 records · Page 37

A Scalable Gradient Free Method for Bayesian Experimental Design with Implicit Models

Bayesian experimental design (BED) is to answer the question that how to choose designs that maximize the information gathering. For implicit models, where the likelihood is intractable but sampling is possible, conventional BED methods have difficulties in efficiently estimating the posterior distribution and maximizing the mutual information (MI) between data and parameters. Recent work proposed the use of gradient ascent to maximize a lower bound on MI to deal with these issues. However, the approach requires a sampling path to compute the pathwise gradient of the MI lower bound with respect to the design variables, and such a pathwise gradient is usually inaccessible for implicit models. In this paper, we propose a novel approach that leverages recent advances in stochastic approximate gradient ascent incorporated with a smoothed variational MI estimator for efficient and robust BED. Without the necessity of pathwise gradients, our approach allows the design process to be achieved through a unified procedure with an approximate gradient for implicit models. Several experiments show that our approach outperforms baseline methods, and significantly improves the scalability of BED in high-dimensional problems.

Zhang, Jiaxin↗

Spatial and temporal prediction of radiation dose rates near Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant

In this paper, we have developed a methodology to estimate the spatiotemporal distribution of radiation air dose rates around the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP). In our exploratory data analysis, we found that (1) the temporal evolution of dose rates is composed of a log-linear decay trend and fluctuations of air dose rates that are spatially correlated among adjacent monitoring posts; and (2) the slope of the log-linear environmental decay trend can be represented as a function of the apparent initial dose rates, coordinate position, land-use type, and soil type. From these observations, we first estimated the log-linear decay trend at each location based on these predictors, using the random forest method. We then developed a modified Kalman filter coupled with a Gaussian process model to estimate the dose-rate time series at a given location and time. We applied this method to the Fukushima evacuation zone (as of March 2017), which included 17 monitoring post locations (with monitoring datasets collected between 2014 and 2018) and generated a time series of dose-rate maps. Our results show that this approach allows us to produce accurate spatial and temporal predictions of radiation dose-rate maps using limited spatiotemporal measurements.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Recovering non-Maxwellian particle velocity distribution functions from collective Thomson-scattered spectra

Collective optical Thomson scattering (TS) is a diagnostic commonly used to characterize plasma parameters. These parameters are typically extracted by a fitting algorithm that minimizes the difference between a measured scattered spectrum and an analytic spectrum calculated from the velocity distribution function (VDF) of the plasma. However, most existing TS analysis algorithms assume that the VDFs are Maxwellian, and applying an algorithm that makes this assumption does not accurately extract the plasma parameters of a non-Maxwellian plasma due to the effect of non-Maxwellian deviations on the TS spectra. We present new open-source numerical tools for forward modeling analytic spectra from arbitrary VDFs and show that these tools are able to more accurately extract plasma parameters from synthetic TS spectra generated by non-Maxwellian VDFs compared to standard TS algorithms. Estimated posterior probability distributions of fits to synthetic spectra for a variety of example non-Maxwellian VDFs are used to determine uncertainties in the extracted plasma parameters and show that correlations between parameters can significantly affect the accuracy of fits in plasmas with non-Maxwellian VDFs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Detailed Characterization of Vitrinite-Rich Subbituminous and Bituminous Coals for Utilization in Carbon Fiber Precursor Production

Chemical structures of candidate coals (one subbituminous coal from the Powder River Basin and three bituminous Eastern US coals) were examined for potential low-cost carbon fiber precursor production. Here, the structural evaluation examined the carbon skeleton ( 13 C nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) and high-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM)), the heteroatom functionality (X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) and NMR), the structural ordering and distribution of PAH sizes (HRTEM), and an estimation of the molecular weight distribution (laser desorption ionization mass spectrometry, LDIMS). The molecular compositional distributions were also evaluated for a mixed solvent extract (atmospheric pressure photoionization, 21 T Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry, FT-ICR MS). Significant structural differences existed between the subbituminous and bituminous coals, as expected with coalification (with the bituminous coals having a higher carbon content, lower oxygen content, higher aromaticity values, larger cluster sizes, and so forth). While the bituminous coals were similar in structure (close in rank with Blue Gem being hvAb and the rest being hvBb), structural differences were still evident. Specifically, structural similarities were evident for the average properties of Herrin and Springfield coals: same rank, similar moisture, and volatile matter yields, along with similar aromaticity and carbon and hydrogen content. However, significant structural differences were observed at the molecular level by 21 T FT-ICR MS, which showed that the Springfield coal was structurally more complex. Specifically, 21740, 16931, 30190, and 12982 unique elemental compositions were identified for the Monarch, Herrin, Springfield, and Blue Gem coals, further illustrating the complexity of the coal.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Electron emission produced by photointeractions in a slab target

The current density and energy spectrum of escaping electrons generated in a uniform plane slab target which is being irradiated by the gamma flux field of a nuclear reactor are calculated by using experimental gamma energy transfer coefficients, electron range and energy relations, and escape probability computations. The probability of escape and the average path length of escaping electrons are derived for an isotropic distribution of monoenergetic photons. The method of estimating the flux and energy distribution of electrons emerging from the surface is outlined, and a sample calculation is made for a 0.33-cm-thick tungsten target located next to the core of a nuclear reactor. The results are to be used as a guide in electron beam synthesis of reactor experiments.

Thinger, B. E.↗

Characterization of Temperature Heterogeneity in Utility-Scale Power Plant Boilers by Spatially Distributed Ultrasonic Measurements

In extreme environments, even hardened insertion sensors fail quickly. For such environments, we have developed an ultrasonic (US) method for measuring the spatial distribution of temperatures in solid materials and, specifically, across containments of extreme processes. By deploying US sensors in multiple locations, spatial heterogeneity in temperatures inside harsh environments may be characterized. In this note, we update our progress on testing the developed approach in an industrial setting and its performance in describing the temperature distribution inside a 500 MW (electrical) coalfired utility boiler of an electrical power generation plant. We use waveguides (WG) structured to contain echogenic features that produce a train of echoes in response to an excitation pulse. The time of flight between echoes encodes the information on the temperature distribution in the corresponding segment of the WG, which we reconstruct using its parametrization. Five waveguides were welded to the boiler’s heat exchange surface (waterwall) and different locations at the same boiler elevation and produced reliable US waveforms 18 months after the installation. For several weeks during the latest trial, we performed US measurements in five locations spanning half of the boiler’s 14-meter width. The measurements were acquired during regular operation, including load cycling to adjust for demand and intermittent contributions of renewable power sources, and during boiler shutdown for emergency maintenance and the subsequent restart. The interpretation of US waveforms by signal processing resulted in an accurate estimation of temperature distribution along the waveguides. We captured daily cyclical variations in demand-following load. Measurements performed in multiple locations revealed unexpected temperature variations across the boiler. We conclude that an array of developed sensors can provide responsive and spatial temperature measurements while maintaining functionality despite prolonged exposure to an extreme environment.

Walton, Kenneth↗

The numerical evaluation of maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters for a mixture of normal distributions from partially identified samples

Likelihood equations determined by the two types of samples which are necessary conditions for a maximum-likelihood estimate are considered. These equations, suggest certain successive-approximations iterative procedures for obtaining maximum-likelihood estimates. These are generalized steepest ascent (deflected gradient) procedures. It is shown that, with probability 1 as N sub 0 approaches infinity (regardless of the relative sizes of N sub 0 and N sub 1, i=1,...,m), these procedures converge locally to the strongly consistent maximum-likelihood estimates whenever the step size is between 0 and 2. Furthermore, the value of the step size which yields optimal local convergence rates is bounded from below by a number which always lies between 1 and 2.

Walker, H. F.↗

The numerical evaluation of maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters for a mixture of normal distributions from partially identified samples

Likelihood equations determined by the two types of samples which are necessary conditions for a maximum-likelihood estimate were considered. These equations suggest certain successive approximations iterative procedures for obtaining maximum likelihood estimates. The procedures, which are generalized steepest ascent (deflected gradient) procedures, contain those of Hosmer as a special case.

Walker, H. F.↗

The frequency and distribution of high-velocity gas in the Galaxy

The purpose of this study was to estimate the frequency and distribution of high-velocity gas in the Galaxy using UV absorption line measurements from archival high-dispersion IUE spectra and to identify particularly interesting regions for future study. Approximately 500 spectra have been examined. The study began with the creation of a database of all 0 and B stars with b less than or = to 30 deg observed with IUE at high dispersion over its 18-year lifetime. The original database of 2500 unique objects was reduced to 1200 objects which had optimal exposures available. The next task was to determine the distances of these stars so the high-velocity structures could be mapped in the Galaxy. Spectroscopic distances were calculated for each star for which photometry was available. The photometry was acquired for each star using the SIMBAD database. Preference was given to the ubvy system where available; otherwise the UBV system was used.

Nichols, Joy S.↗

A Graph Convolutional Network for Active Distribution System Anomaly Detection Considering Measurement Spatial-Temporal Correlations

The accuracy of distribution system state estimation may be significantly impacted by the existence of bad measure-ments and unexpected topology errors. This paper proposes a data-driven Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) for anomaly detection, including bad measurements and topology change events. Compared to many existing machine learning approaches, the proposed approach embeds both spatial-temporal measure-ment correlations, which allows us to detect and distinguish different anomalies. Numerical results carried out on the IEEE 37-node system demonstrate that the proposed-based method can obtain high accuracy in detecting bad data and topology changes as compared to other approaches, even in the presence of high PV penetrations.

active distribution system↗

Decentralized Microgrid Protection Through Relative Fault Direction Classification: Preprint

Protection in inverter-based resources (IBRs) dominated microgrids generally face significant challenges due to the low fault current and inconsistent fault behaviors from IBRs. Recently, machine learning-based approaches have attracted considerable attention to address these challenges. This paper introduces a novel decentralized protection strategy for microgrids. The proposed method decomposes the protection challenge into several distributed learning tasks, enabling individual relays to autonomously determine the direction of faults using a binary classification framework based on support vector machine (SVM) algorithms. Following the distributed fault direction estimation, classifier outcomes are shared among neighboring relays, facilitating a local decision-making process to ascertain the presence of faults within the neighborhood. Finally, a tripping signal is generated based on the classifier results of each relay to operate the circuit breaker. To test and validate this approach, a 100% renewable microgrid model is simulated in MATLAB/Simulink. In the numerical analysis, the application of SVM classifiers in our approach yields impressive results: an average relay classification accuracy of 98%, and a 96% accuracy in circuit breaker control. These findings highlight the potential of machine-learning-based approaches in enhancing the efficiency and reliability of microgrid protection systems.

decentralized algorithm↗

Exploring the Mass-loss Histories of the Red Supergiants

We report mid- to far-infrared imaging and photometry from 7 to 37 μm with SOFIA/FORCAST and 2 μm adaptive optics imaging with LBTI/LMIRCam of a large sample of red supergiants (RSGs) in four Galactic clusters: RSGC1, RSGC2 = Stephenson 2, RSGC3, and NGC 7419. The RSGs in these clusters cover their expected range in luminosity and initial mass from ≈9 to more than 25 M {sub ⊙}. The population includes examples of very late-type RSGs such as MY Cep, which may be near the end of the RSG stage, high-mass-losing maser sources, yellow hypergiants, and post-RSG candidates. Many of the stars and almost all of the most luminous have spectral energy distributions (SEDs) with extended infrared excess radiation at the longest wavelengths. To best model their SEDs, we use the DUSTY code with a variable radial density distribution function to estimate their mass-loss rates. Our M-dot –luminosity relation for 42 RSGs basically follows the classical de Jager curve, but at luminosities below 10{sup 5} L{sub ⊙}, we find a significant population of RSGs with M-dot below the de Jager relation. At luminosities above 10{sup 5} L {sub ⊙}, there is a rapid transition to higher mass-loss rates that approximates and overlaps the de Jager curve. We recommend that instead of using a linear relation or single curve, the empirical M-dot –luminosity relation is better represented by a broad band. Interestingly, the transition to much higher M-dot at about 10{sup 5} L {sub ⊙} corresponds approximately to an initial mass of 18–20 M {sub ⊙}, which is close to the upper limit for RSGs becoming Type II supernovae.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Neural Network‐Based Methods for Ocean Surface Wave Measurement Using Submarine Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS)

Two new data-driven models for estimating ocean surface waves from distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) submarine cable strain rate are developed using supervised machine learning on a 10-day data set collected offshore of Oliktok Point, Alaska. The new models were trained on target data from seafloor pressure moorings at three sites spaced evenly along 27.1 km of cable and were benchmarked against an empirical transfer function method previously used to estimate waves from DAS. A model which uses convolutional neural networks to transform 2-km frequency-wavenumber strain spectra to seafloor pressure spectra outperforms the benchmark in wave height prediction (RMSE of 0.15 vs. 0.41 m) and period prediction (0.29 vs. 0.37 s) when evaluated on a held-out test data set. When applied to a DAS data set collected on the same cable 2 years prior, the CNN-based model maintained similar significant wave height performance (RMSE = 0.23 m) relative to available satellite altimetry data. A two-hidden-layer, fully connected neural network which transforms 1-D strain spectra to seafloor pressure spectra also outperforms the benchmark in wave height prediction (RMSE of 0.19 vs. 0.41 m), but does not generalize as well to the prior data. Regression-based machine learning is useful for estimating waves from DAS data when the pressure-strain relationship varies temporally and spatially across different wave conditions. Models can be applied to DAS data to measure waves with higher spatial resolution and longer temporal coverage than traditional methods, which often measure waves only at a single point.

Davis, Jacob R. [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA ↗

Gauge-invariant TMD factorization for Drell-Yan hadronic tensor at small $\mathcal{x}$

The Drell-Yan hadronic tensor for electromagnetic (EM) current is calculated in the Sudakov region $s\gg Q^2 \gg q^2_⊥$ with $\frac{1}{Q^2}$ accuracy, first at the tree level and then with the double-log accuracy. It is demonstrated that in the leading order in $N_c$ the higher-twist quark-quark-gluon TMDs reduce to leading-twist TMDs due to QCD equation of motion. The resulting tensor for unpolarized hadrons is EM gauge-invariant and depends on two leading-twist TMDs: $f_1$ responsible for total DY cross section, and Boer-Mulders function $h\frac{⊥}{1}$. The order-of-magnitude estimates of angular distributions for DY process seem to agree with LHC results at corresponding kinematics.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Computationally efficient and error aware surrogate construction for numerical solutions of subsurface flow through porous media

Limiting the injection rate to restrict the pressure below a threshold at a critical location can be an important goal of simulations that model the subsurface pressure between injection and extraction wells. The pressure is approximated by the solution of Darcy’s partial differential equation for a given permeability field. The subsurface permeability is modeled as a random field since it is known only up to statistical properties. This induces uncertainty in the computed pressure. Solving the partial differential equation for an ensemble of random permeability simulations enables estimating a probability distribution for the pressure at the critical location. These simulations are computationally expensive, and practitioners often need rapid online guidance for real-time pressure management. An ensemble of numerical partial differential equation solutions is used to construct a Gaussian process regression model that can quickly predict the pressure at the critical location as a function of the extraction rate and permeability realization. The Gaussian process surrogate analyzes the ensemble of numerical pressure solutions at the critical location as noisy observations of the true pressure solution, enabling robust inference using the conditional Gaussian process distribution. Our first novel contribution is to identify a sampling methodology for the random environment and matching kernel technology for which fitting the Gaussian process regression model scales as O ( n log n ) instead of the typical O ( n 3 ) rate in the number of samples n used to fit the surrogate. The surrogate model allows almost instantaneous predictions for the pressure at the critical location as a function of the extraction rate and permeability realization. Our second contribution is a novel algorithm to calibrate the uncertainty in the surrogate model to the discrepancy between the true pressure solution of Darcy’s equation and the numerical solution. Finally, although our method is derived for building a surrogate for the solution of Darcy’s equation with a random permeability field, the framework broadly applies to solutions of other partial differential equations with random coefficients.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A multi-criteria land suitability assessment of field allocation decisions for switchgrass

With the goal of evaluating biomass resource availability in certain regions in the United States, the Department of Energy, Department of Agriculture, Environmental Protection Agency, national laboratories, and Forest Service research laboratories, together with academic and industry collaborators, performed a resource analysis study, 2016 Billion-Ton Report: Advancing Domestic Resources for a Thriving Bioeconomy, Volume 1: Economic Availability of Feedstocks, using POLYSYS model to estimate biomass potential. The study provided county- and state-level biomass potential projections, with biomass feedstock production estimates and suitability assessment of lands acreage likely to transition to energy crops. For this analysis, we estimate biomass supply by year 2028, more specifically, lands acreage transition to switchgrass in the Midwest of the United States, across 50 counties in 3 states (Nebraska, Kansas, and Colorado). We propose a multi-criteria site suitability framework, to determine the potential acreage and production for switchgrass, at the field level. Site selection criteria span agronomic and ecosystem services such as previous land cover, crop rotation, soil water holding capacity, crop productivity, field efficiency, topography, soil organic matter, soil leaching propensity, distance to surface water bodies, and soil erosivity. Efficient agricultural field selection for dedicated energy crops field allocation is critical to evaluate biomass resource availability, and it is our position that estimation at the field level would provide a more accurate and useful estimation to support an emerging bioeconomy. Using field suitability scores and county-level assessments, we model land allocation decision for energy crop in the future, estimating the spatial distribution of dynamics of energy crop adoption with priority to fields scoring the highest. Additionally, compared with POLYSYS results from the report mentioned above, our method shows good performance overall, with about 2% and 1.2% of difference in switchgrass acreage allocation and crop production, respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Demonstrating the viability of Lagrangian in situ reduction on supercomputers

Performing exploratory analysis and visualization of large-scale time-varying computational science applications is challenging due to inaccuracies that arise from under-resolved data. In recent years, Lagrangian representations of the vector field computed using in situ processing are being increasingly researched and have emerged as a potential solution to enable exploration. However, prior works have offered limited estimates of the encumbrance on the simulation code as they consider “theoretical” in situ environments. Further, the effectiveness of this approach varies based on the nature of the vector field, benefitting from an in-depth investigation for each application area. With this study, an extended version of Sane et al. (2021), we contribute an evaluation of Lagrangian analysis viability and efficacy for simulation codes executing at scale on a supercomputer. We investigated previously unexplored cosmology and seismology applications as well as conducted a performance benchmarking study by using a hydrodynamics mini-application targeting exascale computing. Here, to inform encumbrance, we integrated in situ infrastructure with simulation codes, and evaluated Lagrangian in situ reduction in representative homogeneous and heterogeneous HPC environments. To inform post hoc accuracy, we conducted a statistical analysis across a range of spatiotemporal configurations as well as a qualitative evaluation. Additionally, our study contributes cost estimates for distributed-memory post hoc reconstruction. In all, we demonstrate viability for each application — data reduction to less than 1% of the total data via Lagrangian representations, while maintaining accurate reconstruction and requiring under 10% of total execution time in over 90% of our experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Risk Assessment in a Chemical Laboratory Following an Explosive Incident Involving a Novel Diazonium Compound: Retrospective Analysis and Lessons Learned

Diazonium compounds are synthetically useful in the production of dyes and textiles, however they are highly explosive under dry conditions. Explosion prevention becomes more difficult when new diazonium compounds are synthesized, because while some syntheses include a counterion to increase their stability, this is not always a reliable method to prevent an explosive incident. Due to the uncertainty surrounding the explosiveness of different diazonium compounds, it is important to understand how to safely clean up after an incident and how to determine when it is safe to return a laboratory to typical operational use, particularly when the incident involves a novel compound where a standard does not exist for instrument calibration. Here, an explosive event is discussed involving the synthesis of 4-bromo-benzenediazonium-2-carboxylate. Following the explosive incident and 3-step cleanup, which involved a precautionary neutralization step, samples were collected from the fume hood where the incident occurred. Because the incident involved an unstable, novel compound that is not commercially available and was deemed unsafe to resynthesize for instrument calibration, we assessed the risk of further explosion by analyzing for the stable decomposition products. Mass spectrometry analysis confirmed that the residue in the fume hood contained 5-bromosalicylic acid, a decomposition product of 4-bromo-benzenediazonium-2-carboxylate. Samples were taken from multiple points in the fume hood and analyzed to estimate the spatial distribution of the decomposition product. Based on this analysis, we inferred that the primary decomposition product was far more abundant than residual energetic, indicating the energetic had been consumed or neutralized to a trace quantity where the risk of further explosion was low. Furthermore, the steps presented here─specifically, initial neutralization and then analyzing the spatial distribution of expected decomposition products to assess risk when a novel explosive material is detonated in a confined space─were our approach to assess further risk following an explosion due to a novel diazonium compound without the need for any further handling or resynthesis of the energetic. Here, we present our approach and critically analyze these steps by discussing retrospective lessons learned and alternative analytical approaches.

Computer simulations↗