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At least 667 records · Page 37

Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation

Mesoscale weather conditions can significantly affect the space launch and landing operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). During the summer months, land-sea interactions that occur across KSC and CCAFS lead to the formation of a sea breeze, which can then spawn deep convection. These convective processes often last 60 minutes or less and pose a significant challenge to the forecasters at the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG). The main challenge is that a "GO" forecast for thunderstorms and precipitation at the Shuttle Landing Facility is required at the 90 minute deorbit decision for End Of Mission (EOM) and at the 30 minute Return To Launch Site (RTLS) decision. Convective initiation, timing, and mode also present a forecast challenge for the NWS in Melbourne, FL (MLB). The NWS MLB issues such tactical forecast information as Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAF5), Spot Forecasts for fire weather and hazardous materials incident support, and severe/hazardous weather Watches, Warnings, and Advisories. Lastly, these forecasting challenges can also affect the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), which provides comprehensive weather forecasts for shuttle launch, as well as ground operations, at KSC and CCAFS. The need for accurate mesoscale model forecasts to aid in their decision making is crucial. This study specifically addresses the skill of different model configurations in forecasting warm season convective initiation. Numerous factors influence the development of convection over the Florida peninsula. These factors include sea breezes, river and lake breezes, the prevailing low-level flow, and convergent flow due to convex coastlines that enhance the sea breeze. The interaction of these processes produces the warm season convective patterns seen over the Florida peninsula. However, warm season convection remains one of the most poorly forecast meteorological parameters. To determine which configuration options are best to address this specific forecast concern, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which has two dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) was employed. In addition to the two dynamical cores, there are also two options for a "hot-start" initialization of the WRF model - the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS; McGinley 1995) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS; Brewster 1996). Both LAPS and ADAS are 3- dimensional weather analysis systems that integrate multiple meteorological data sources into one consistent analysis over the user's domain of interest. This allows mesoscale models to benefit from the addition of highresolution data sources. Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many options within each core, provides SMG and MLB with considerable flexibility as well as challenges. It is the goal of this study to assess the different configurations available and to determine which configuration will best predict warm season convective initiation.

Watson, Leela R.↗

Three-Dimensional Finite Element Ablative Thermal Response and Thermostructural Design of Thermal Protection Systems

A finite element ablation and thermal response program is presented for simulation of three-dimensional transient thermostructural analysis. The three-dimensional governing differential equations and finite element formulation are summarized. A novel probabilistic design methodology for thermal protection systems is presented. The design methodology is an eight step process beginning with a parameter sensitivity study and is followed by a deterministic analysis whereby an optimum design can determined. The design process concludes with a Monte Carlo simulation where the probabilities of exceeding design specifications are estimated. The design methodology is demonstrated by applying the methodology to the carbon phenolic compression pads of the Crew Exploration Vehicle. The maximum allowed values of bondline temperature and tensile stress are used as the design specifications in this study.

Dec, John A.↗

Slow Crack Growth Analysis of Brittle Materials with Finite Thickness Subjected to Constant Stress-Rate Flexural Loading

A two-dimensional, numerical analysis of slow crack growth (SCG) was performed for brittle materials with finite thickness subjected to constant stress-rate ("dynamic fatigue") loading in flexure. The numerical solution showed that the conventional, simple, one-dimensional analytical solution can be used with a maximum error of about 5% in determining the SCG parameters of a brittle material with the conditions of a normalized thickness (a ratio of specimen thickness to initial crack size) T > 3.3 and of a SCG parameter n > 10. The change in crack shape from semicircular to elliptical configurations was significant particularly at both low stress rate and low T, attributed to predominant difference in stress intensity factor along the crack front. The numerical solution of SCG parameters was supported within the experimental range by the data obtained from constant stress-rate flexural testing for soda-lime glass microslides at ambient temperature.

Chio, S. R.↗

Interactive color graphical postprocessing as a unifying influence in numerical analysis research

The general capabilities and the hardware environment of an interactive color graphical postprocessor for three-dimensional numerical analysis are described as well as the synergistic influence of this aspect of interactive graphics on the research environment. Areas of practical concern include finite element analysis, fracture propagation, surface and framed structures. The interactive color graphical postprocessor, POSTPRO3D, is capable of displaying the scalar, vector, and tensor results of finite difference, finite element, and boundary element analysis. In the case of fatigue cracking in steel crane-rail girders, it was shown that POSTPRO3D offers a high level of flexibility, interactivity and features which minimize response time.

Abel, J. F.↗

Addition of three-dimensional isoparametric elements to NASA structural analysis program (NASTRAN)

Implementation is made of the three-dimensional family of linear, quadratic and cubic isoparametric solid elements into the NASA Structural Analysis program, NASTRAN. This work included program development, installation, testing, and documentation. The addition of these elements to NASTRAN provides a significant increase in modeling capability particularly for structures requiring specification of temperatures, material properties, displacements, and stresses which vary throughout each individual element. Complete program documentation is presented in the form of new sections and updates for direct insertion to the three NASTRAN manuals. The results of demonstration test problems are summarized. Excellent results are obtained with the isoparametric elements for static, normal mode, and buckling analyses.

Field, E. I.↗

Differential analysis for the turbulent boundary layer on a compressor blade element (including boundary-layer separation)

A two-dimensional differential analysis is developed to approximate the turbulent boundary layer on a compressor blade element with strong adverse pressure gradients, including the separated region with reverse flow. The predicted turbulent boundary layer thicknesses and velocity profiles are in good agreement with experimental data for a cascade blade, even in the separated region.

Schmidt, J. F.↗

Design of Optimum Ducts Using an Efficient 3-D Viscous Computational Flow Analysis

Design of fluid dynamically efficient ducts is addressed through the combination of an optimization analysis with a three-dimensional viscous fluid dynamic analysis code. For efficiency, a parabolic fluid dynamic analysis was used. Since each function evaluation in an optimization analysis is a full three-dimensional viscous flow analysis requiring 200,000 grid points, it is important to use both an efficient fluid dynamic analysis and an efficient optimization technique. Three optimization techniques are evaluated on a series of test functions. The Quasi-Newton (BFGS, eta = .9) technique was selected as the preferred technique. A series of basic duct design problems are performed. On a two-parameter optimization problem, the BFGS technique is demonstrated to require half as many function evaluations as a steepest descent technique.

Madabhushi, Ravi K.↗

A Hierarchical Approach to Buckling Load Calculations

The advantages of using a hierarchical analysis approach to calculate the buckling load of an axially compressed composite cylindrical shell is demonstrated using an example taken from a recent experimental program. The Delft Interactive Shell DEsign COde (DISDECO) shell design code is used for this hierarchical analysis approach to provide an accurate prediction of the critical buckling load of the actual shell structure. DISDECO includes the influence of the boundary conditions, initial geometric imperfections, the effects of stiffener and load eccentricities, and the effects of prebuckling deformations caused by edge constraints in the analysis. It is shown that the use of DISDECO makes it relatively simple to proceed step by step from simple to more complex models and solution procedures. As a final step in the hierarchical analysis approach, the critical buckling load and the estimated imperfection sensitivity of the shell are verified by conducting an analysis of a large finite element model with one of the current generation two-dimensional shell analysis codes with advanced capabilities needed to represent both geometric and material nonlinearities.

Arbocz, Johann↗

TF34 engine compression system computer study

The stability of the fan and the compressor components was examined individually using linearized and time dependent, one dimensional stability analysis techniques. The stability of the fan core integrated compression system was investigated using a two dimensional compression system model. The analytical equations on which this model was based satisfied the mass, axial momentum, radial momentum, and energy conservation equations for flow through a finite control volume. The results gave an accurate simulation of the flow through the compression system. The speed lines of the components were reproduced; the points of instability were accurately predicted; the locations where the instability was initiated in the fan and the core were indicated; and the variation of the bypass ratio during flow throttling was calculated. The validity of the analytical techniques was then established by comparing these results with test data and with results obtained from the steady state cycle deck.

Hosny, W. M.↗

Probabilistic structural analysis to evaluate the structural durability of SSME critical components

NASA Lewis Research Center is currently developing probabilistic structural analysis methods for select Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) structural components. Briefly, the deterministic, three-dimensional, inelastic analysis methodology developed under the Hot Section Technology (HOST) and R and T Base Programs is being augmented to accommodate the complex probabilistic loading spectra, the thermoviscoplastic material behavior, and the material degradation associated with the environment of space propulsion system structural components representative of the SSME such as turbine blades, transfer ducts, and liquid-oxygen posts. The development of probabilistic structural analysis methodology consists of the following program elements: (1) composite load spectra; (2) probabilistic structural analysis methods; (3) probabilistic finite element theory - new variational principles; and (4) probabilistic structural analysis application. In addition, the program includes deterministic analysis elements: (1) development of structural tailoring computer codes (SSME/STAEBL); (2) development of dynamic creep buckling/ratcheting theory; (3) evaluation of the dynamic characteristics of single-crystal SSME blades; (4) development of SSME blade damper technology; and (5) development of integrated boundary elements for hotfluid structure interaction.

Chamis, Christos C.↗

Structural analysis applications

The programs in the structural analysis area of the HOST program emphasized the generation of computer codes for performing three-dimensional inelastic analysis with more accuracy and less manpower. This paper presents the application of that technology to Aircraft Gas Turbine Engine (AGTE) components; combustors, tur- bine blades, and vanes. Previous limitations will be reviewed and the breakthrough technology highlighted. The synergism and spillover of the program will be demonstrated by reviewing applications to thermal barrier coatings analysis and the SSME HPFTP turbine blade. These applications show that this technology has increased the ability of the AGTE designer to be more innovative, productive, and accurate.

R L McKnight↗

On a High-Fidelity Hierarchical Approach to Buckling Load Calculations

As a step towards developing a new design philosophy, one that moves away from the traditional empirical approach used today in design towards a science-based design technology approach, a recent test series of 5 composite shells carried out by Waters at NASA Langley Research Center is used. It is shown how the hierarchical approach to buckling load calculations proposed by Arbocz et al can be used to perform an approach often called "high fidelity analysis", where the uncertainties involved in a design are simulated by refined and accurate numerical methods. The Delft Interactive Shell DEsign COde (short, DISDECO) is employed for this hierarchical analysis to provide an accurate prediction of the critical buckling load of the given shell structure. This value is used later as a reference to establish the accuracy of the Level-3 buckling load predictions. As a final step in the hierarchical analysis approach, the critical buckling load and the estimated imperfection sensitivity of the shell are verified by conducting an analysis using a sufficiently refined finite element model with one of the current generation two-dimensional shell analysis codes with the advanced capabilities needed to represent both geometric and material nonlinearities.

Arbocz, Johann↗

Buckling Load Calculations of the Isotropic Shell A-8 Using a High-Fidelity Hierarchical Approach

As a step towards developing a new design philosophy, one that moves away from the traditional empirical approach used today in design towards a science-based design technology approach, a test series of 7 isotropic shells carried out by Aristocrat and Babcock at Caltech is used. It is shown how the hierarchical approach to buckling load calculations proposed by Arbocz et al can be used to perform an approach often called 'high fidelity analysis', where the uncertainties involved in a design are simulated by refined and accurate numerical methods. The Delft Interactive Shell DEsign COde (short, DISDECO) is employed for this hierarchical analysis to provide an accurate prediction of the critical buckling load of the given shell structure. This value is used later as a reference to establish the accuracy of the Level-3 buckling load predictions. As a final step in the hierarchical analysis approach, the critical buckling load and the estimated imperfection sensitivity of the shell are verified by conducting an analysis using a sufficiently refined finite element model with one of the current generation two-dimensional shell analysis codes with the advanced capabilities needed to represent both geometric and material nonlinearities.

Arbocz, Johann↗

Stress analysis of the compact specimen including the effects of pin loading

An improved method of boundary collocation was applied to the two-dimensional stress analysis of the compact specimen. The effects of the pin-loaded holes on stress-intensity factors and crack-opening displacements were investigated for various crack-length-to-specimen-width ratios, hole locations, and internal loadings. The stress-intensity factors for the 'standard' compact specimen under plane-stress or plane-strain conditions were found to be within 1 percent of the stress-intensity factors reported in the ASTM Test for Plane-Strain Fracture Toughness of Metallic Materials (E 399-72) over a range of crack-length-to-specimen-width ratios of 0.4 to 0.7. However, for crack-length-to-specimen-width ratios less than 0.4, the pin-load holes (which were not previously accounted for) had a significant effect on stress intensity and crack-opening displacements.

Newman, J. C., Jr.↗

Application of a new adaptive grid for aerodynamic analysis of shock containing single jets

A fast and robust solution-adaptive grid generation method has been developed for the three-dimensional numerical analysis of shock containing supersonic jets. The adaptive grid algorithm, which is based on the equidistribution principle and the alternate direction method, has been fully integrated with the space marching scheme developed by Abdol-Hamid (1989). The capability of the approach proposed here is illustrated by numerical solutions for circular, square, and elliptic jet plumes.

Pao, S. Paul↗

A Monte Carlo Uncertainty Analysis of Ozone Trend Predictions in a Two Dimensional Model

We use Monte Carlo analysis to estimate the uncertainty in predictions of total O3 trends between 1979 and 1995 made by the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) two-dimensional (2D) model of stratospheric photochemistry and dynamics. The uncertainty is caused by gas-phase chemical reaction rates, photolysis coefficients, and heterogeneous reaction parameters which are model inputs. The uncertainty represents a lower bound to the total model uncertainty assuming the input parameter uncertainties are characterized correctly. Each of the Monte Carlo runs was initialized in 1970 and integrated for 26 model years through the end of 1995. This was repeated 419 times using input parameter sets generated by Latin Hypercube Sampling. The standard deviation (a) of the Monte Carlo ensemble of total 03 trend predictions is used to quantify the model uncertainty. The 34% difference between the model trend in globally and annually averaged total O3 using nominal inputs and atmospheric trends calculated from Nimbus 7 and Meteor 3 total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) version 7 data is less than the 46% calculated 1 (sigma), model uncertainty, so there is no significant difference between the modeled and observed trends. In the northern hemisphere midlatitude spring the modeled and observed total 03 trends differ by more than 1(sigma) but less than 2(sigma), which we refer to as marginal significance. We perform a multiple linear regression analysis of the runs which suggests that only a few of the model reactions contribute significantly to the variance in the model predictions. The lack of significance in these comparisons suggests that they are of questionable use as guides for continuing model development. Large model/measurement differences which are many multiples of the input parameter uncertainty are seen in the meridional gradients of the trend and the peak-to-peak variations in the trends over an annual cycle. These discrepancies unambiguously indicate model formulation problems and provide a measure of model performance which can be used in attempts to improve such models.

Considine, D. B.↗

Prediction of stiffener-skin separation in composite panels

A methodology was developed to predict the failure of stiffened composite panels by stiffener-skin separation. The methodology is applicable to curved or flat panels under combined uniaxial compression and in-plane shear loads. The analytical crux of the methodology are two different analysis packages: PACL1, which predicts the stress and displacement fields in a stiffened postbuckled panel; and WEBSTER, which predicts the local interfacial (shear and normal) stresses at the skin and stiffener flange junction. PACL1 is a Rayleigh-Ritz analysis of curved composite panels loaded into a post-buckling range. WEBSTER is a two-dimensional elasticity analysis for the skin-stiffener interface. Results of the predictive methodology are given.

Kan, Han-Pin↗