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At least 667 records · Page 37

High-resolution mountain topography can inform global snow vulnerability estimates

Snow is changing globally. Computationally intensive snow reanalysis products and downscaled climate model projections allow for the estimation of historical and projected changes in snow over ∼4–10 km resolutions, but these resolutions are coarse relative to the scales needed for water supply and flood planning. Fine-scale digital elevation models (DEMs) are widely available but are underutilized to make first-order assessments of snow vulnerability. Here, we leverage DEMs at a 7.5 arc s (∼250 m) resolution, combining these with historical freezing level height estimates from ERA-5 to derive estimates of changes in the snow-receiving area (SRA) and its variability across global mountain ranges. Results show estimated SRA declines in 29% (1.9 million km2) of the global mountain area from 1982–2020; 66% of the mountainous areas had no change over the historical period. At +1.5 °C of warming relative to the pre-industrial control, global mountain SRA would decline by 9.5% (1.0 million km2) relative to recent conditions. This loss would be approximately doubled with +2 °C of warming. In a +4 °C warming scenario, an additional 34% (3.6 million km2) of SRA would be lost beyond the +2 °C case. Across individual mountain ranges, SRA losses can occur nonlinearly with warming, with some locations that have historically had relatively minor SRA losses at risk of substantially larger losses in warmer climates. Analysis using coarser-resolution DEMs can underestimate or overestimate SRA and its rate of loss, with the largest impacts in relatively warm, low-elevation mountain ranges. Results of this work provide estimates of projected loss in SRA at policy-relevant warming levels; inform the resolutions needed for process-based snow modeling; identify snow vulnerability hotspots; and provide a new integrated approach to snow vulnerability assessment that is achievable at global scales and highlights potential nonlinearities from recent trends to a variety of future warming scenarios.

climate, mountains↗

2021 LDRD Annual Report

This summary report provides an overview of all LDRD projects at Argonne that concluded in Fiscal Year 2021. Many projects are funded for multiple years, the initial fiscal year for each project is indicated by the first four digits of the LDRD project number.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Building Initial Dynamic System Models for Digital Twins of the Cryogenic Moderator System at the ORNL Spallation Neutron Source

This work describes the initial development of dynamic system models of the cryogenic moderator system (CMS) of the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) at ORNL as a part of the ORNL LDRD funded project Building TRANSFORM to Accelerate Digital Twin Applications for Nuclear Systems, LOIS 10563. The goal of the work is to start the dynamic system modeling effort with the end goal of using them for real-time applications as digital twins. The CMS is a cryogenic liquid hydrogen flow loop that provides moderation of the neutrons that are generated by the SNS. For optimal neutron production, the CMS needs to maintain a steady and controlled density of cryogenic hydrogen in the moderator section thus requiring precise temperature and pressure control. Due to the varied time scales and system characteristics, control of the system is complex, and diagnostics are also difficult. Difficulty in accessing the flow loop during operations, limited instrumentation and unknown design details of the equipment combine to make the case for having sophisticated digital twin models of the system. Operationally the CMS also provides a strong use case for digital twins due to the constant need of optimization and for troubleshooting/diagnostics. The large amount of data collected which are freely available for using in building the model and verifying and validating the model also makes it a great candidate for a proof-of-concept for digital twins. The project extends ORNL's capacity of development and implementation of the open-source dynamic system modeling tool TRANSFORM for engineering design and digital twin/real-time applications. Specific system configuration data for the CMS have been gathered and an initial dynamic model was created in the TRANSFORM library using Dymola as the solution platform. Models of increasing complexity are created to demonstrate the need for a multi-layered approach in digital twin modeling depending on the scale and phenomena being focused on. The dynamic modeling is shown to bring the dynamic operational aspects to the design process for systems as well as serve as a digital twin to the hardware and allow for models to be tuned and compared against real time operational data. These aims should help to push forward strategic goals of application of digital twins and increase the impact of ORNL systems modeling capabilities with TRANSFORM/Modelica for various advanced energy systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

FY22 CritView Status & Database Expansion [Slides]

This presentation covers Fiscal Year FY22 CritView Status & Database Expansion. This presentation Provide an update for progress and current status related to the CritView digital handbook for FY22/FY23. The lecture also covers a budget summary, FY22 highlights, CritView overview, and future work for FY23.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Object-space optimization of tomographic reconstructions for additive manufacturing

Volumetric 3D printing motivated by computed axial lithography enables rapid printing of homogeneous parts but requires a high dimensionality gradient-descent optimization to calculate image sets. Here we introduce a new, simpler approach to image-computation that algebraically optimizes a model of the printed object, significantly improving print accuracy of complex parts under imperfect material and optical precision by improving optical dose contrast between the target and surrounding regions. Quality metrics for volumetric printing are defined and shown to be significantly improved by the new algorithm. The approach is extended beyond binary printing to grayscale control of conversion to enable functionally graded materials. The flexibility of the technique is digitally demonstrated with realistic projector point spread functions, printing around occluding structures, printing with restricted angular range, and incorporation of materials chemistry such as inhibition. Finally, simulations show that the method facilitates new printing modalities such as printing into flat, rather than cylindrical packages to extend the applications of volumetric printing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Critical percolation on the kagome hypergraph

In this report we study the percolation critical surface of the kagome lattice in which each triangle is allowed an arbitrary connectivity. Using the method of critical polynomials, we find points along this critical surface to high precision. This kagome hypergraph contains many unsolved problems as special cases, including bond percolation on the kagome and (3, 12 2 ) lattices, and site percolation on the hexagonal, or honeycomb, lattice, as well as a single point for which there is an exact solution. We are able to compute enough points along the critical surface to find a very accurate fit, essentially a Taylor series about the exact point, that allows estimations of the critical point of any system that lies on the surface to precision rivaling Monte Carlo and traditional techniques of similar accuracy. We find also that this system sheds light on some of the surprising aspects of the method of critical polynomials, such as why it is so accurate for certain problems, like the kagome and (3, 12 2 ) lattices. The bond percolation critical points of these lattices can be found to 17 and 18 digits, respectively, because they are in close proximity, in a sense that can be made quantitative, to the exact point on the critical surface. We also discuss in detail a parallel implementation of the method which we use here for a few calculations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Transient Efficiency, Flexibility, and Reliability Optimization of Coal-Fired Power Plants - Final Report

This program developed an advanced model-based monitoring and model-predictive control algorithms for a coal fired power plant (CFPP), and deployed these algorithms in a real-time platform to demonstrate performance benefits for transient flexibility and plant operation efficiency. More specifically, the objectives were successfully achieved through a combination of (i) developing a high-fidelity transient plant model in Apros, which was used as a high-fidelity plant simulation between $100-50\% TMCR$ where TMCR denotes the turbine maximum continuous rating, i.e., baseload, (ii) developing a very fast physics-based reduced-order model (ROM) of the plant, which ran more than $100\times$ faster than real-time, enabling its use as real-time embedded model for model-based estimation (MBE) and model predictive control (MPC) (iii) implementing a real-time MBE based on ROM using a robust unscented Kalman filter (UKF) to continuously tune the ROM to match the measurements from high-fidelity Apros plant model despite significant plant-model mismatch, and thus, obtain a Digital Twin of the plant (iv) designing and implementing a real-time MPC with dual objectives of transient plant load tracking with high ramp rates and minimizing coal consumption, i.e., improving plant efficiency in the baseload-partload operation range of $100-50\% TMCR$. Each key element above was developed and tested individually, and has been reported in corresponding Topical Reports. Finally, all the individual elements were integrated in an overall closed-loop system, that was successfully tested in desktop Simulink test harness simulations with ROM or high-fidelity model as the plant. Thereafter, the Simulink implementation was used to auto-generate C-code and deploy as real-time Docker microservice containers in Linux, and validate that they can run in real-time in the hardware-in-the loop (HIL) setup and produce the same results as in Simulink. The results of the integrated simulation tests in Simulink as well as the real-time HIL deployment are documented in this final report, showing good load tracking for load ramps at $3-4\%/min$ ramp rates, and achieving up to $5.5\%$ reduction in coal relative to baseline operation at $50\% TMCR$ load. The desktop and HIL simulations show successful performance of the overall model based estimation and control solution and achieve the key objectives of the program for flexible, efficient and reliable operation of subcritical coal fired power plants.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Improved Evaluation of Large Network Matrices for Linear Power Flow Within Optimization Problems

This work presents methods for evaluating the Power Transfer Distribution Factor (PTDF) and Line Outage Distribution Factor (LODF) matrices by employing sparse linear algebra for large-scale computing applications. These matrices play a critical role in many power system applications, such as the Unit Commitment Problem (UC), pre- and post-contingency power flow analysis, and transmission expansion. These matrices are typically dense, which means they require a significant amount of time and memory to be computed for large networks. However, by analyzing the structure of the matrices and their computation method, it is possible to use reduced memory methods based on sparse matrix operations. This paper shows that sparse linear algebra algorithms are faster and require less memory and time than traditional dense approaches. Additionally, we explore the effect of matrix sparsification by eliminating trailing digits on power flow calculations.

large scale↗

Understanding Line Losses and Transformer Losses in Rural Isolated Distribution Systems

Rural, isolated power systems in the mainland U.S. and in states like Alaska and Hawaii are powered by assets like diesel generators. These rural, isolated power systems also cannot operate at the higher band of medium voltage (like 69kV). They are primarily in the 12 to 14 kV range to keep the cost of the distribution investments lower. Because of this mid-band medium voltage range, the line losses and distribution transformers losses consume significant diesel consumption (almost 10 percent of the peak load). This work considers one such power system powering an isolated system and presents key findings online losses, and transformer losses. Understanding and documenting the impacts is critical for these communities operating their power systems and take actions to reduce expensive diesel consumption. In this paper, we will present one such typical grid and model it in electromagnetic transients (EMT) domain. We used the tower structure, under ground cabling installation to develop high fidelity models of lines. We also used high fidelity models of distribution transformers to present the no-load losses and full load loses. We will also present technical solutions available commercially off-the-shelf to reduce these losses and reduce diesel consumption. This work will be a primer for communities to understand the technical challenges and to understand the possible solution available to solve such challenges for rural, isolated power system operators.

blackstart↗

Improved Evaluation of Large Network Matrices for Linear Power Flow Within Optimization Problems: Preprint

This work discusses methods for evaluating the Power Transfer Distribution Factor (PTDF) and Line Outage Distribution Factor (LODF) matrices by employing sparse linear algebra for large-scale computing applications. These matrices are critical in many power systems applications, such as the Unit Commitment Problem (UC), pre- and post-contingency power flow analysis, and transmission expansion. These matrices are typically dense, which means they require a significant amount of time and memory to be computed for large networks. However, by analyzing the structure of the matrices and their computation method, it is possible to use reduced memory methods based on sparse matrix operations. This paper shows that sparse linear algebra algorithms are faster and require less memory and time than traditional dense approaches. Additionally, we explore the effect of matrix sparsification by eliminating trailing digits on power flow calculations.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

TCR Data Management Plan

The Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Transformation Challenge Reactor (TCR) program is developing additive manufacturing and artificial intelligence (AI) to deliver enabling technologies for advanced reactors. Through the application of these advanced technologies, the program targets delivering solutions to the high costs and lengthy deployment timelines that threaten the future of nuclear energy—the country’s largest source of carbon-free energy. This document describes the plan for integrating and managing TCR data from multiple sources throughout ORNL and external sources, including novel data sources associated with advanced manufacturing, characterization systems, and the TCR Digital Platform that incorporates various levels of AI and data analytics.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Bond Dissociation Energy, Ionization Energy, and Electronic Structure of Thorium Dimer

Diatomic thorium, Th 2 , has been investigated using a laser ablation, supersonic expansion source to produce the molecule and resonant two-photon ionization spectroscopy to measure its bond dissociation energy (BDE) and ionization energy (IE). The molecule has a high density of states in the vicinity of its bond dissociation energy, leading to rapid predissociation as soon as this energy is exceeded. The BDE is identified from this predissociation threshold as D 0 (Th 2 ) = 2.857(7) eV, where the assigned error limit is provided in parentheses in units of the last quoted digit. Similarly, the one-photon ionization threshold has been measured, providing the ionization energy IE(Th 2 ) = 5.042(4) eV. Together with a thermochemical cycle and the atomic ionization energy, these values provide the BDE of the cation, giving D 0 (Th 2 + ) = 4.122(8) eV. Computations show that Th 2 has three nearly degenerate low-lying electronic states (1 3 Σ u + , 1 1 Σ g + , and 1 3 Δ g ) with bonding dominated by 7s and 6d orbitals, indicating predominantly transition-metal-like behavior. The 1 3 Σ u + state exhibits a triple bond, whereas the 1 1 Σ g + and 1 3 Δ g states possess quadruple-bond character and correspondingly shorter bonds. Although 1 3 Σ u + is predicted to be the lowest state without spin–orbit coupling, the large spin–orbit stabilization of the 1 3 Δ g state makes its Ω = 1 g component the ground state. Furthermore, the calculated dissociation energy (2.840 eV) and ionization energy of Th 2 (5.098 eV) are both in excellent agreement with experiment.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Multifidelity computing for coupling full and reduced order models

Hybrid physics-machine learning models are increasingly being used in simulations of transport processes. Many complex multiphysics systems relevant to scientific and engineering applications include multiple spatiotemporal scales and comprise a multifidelity problem sharing an interface between various formulations or heterogeneous computational entities. To this end, we present a robust hybrid analysis and modeling approach combining a physics-based full order model (FOM) and a data-driven reduced order model (ROM) to form the building blocks of an integrated approach among mixed fidelity descriptions toward predictive digital twin technologies. At the interface, we introduce a long short-term memory network to bridge these high and low-fidelity models in various forms of interfacial error correction or prolongation. The proposed interface learning approaches are tested as a new way to address ROM-FOM coupling problems solving nonlinear advection-diffusion flow situations with a bifidelity setup that captures the essence of a broad class of transport processes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

5G Enabled Transformative Co-design and Co-simulation Framework for Grid Decarbonization and Modernization

5G is a breakthrough technology to enable a fully mobile and connected society, and a 5G-enabled digital continuum will be one of the critical foundations for clean energy economy and grid modernization. The clean energy transformation not only requires innovative manufacturing, algorithm, application, and cross-domain co-simulation, but also a systematic evaluation and comprehensive support on the microelectronic and architectural computing customization to enable and maximize the high renewable penetration in the future power grid. The co-design of decarbonized grid, reliable yet efficient communication, and affordable yet ubiquitous computing will unlock the potential of almost any available tools for the undergoing clean energy transformation. 5G is also an opportunity to rethink the paradigm of infrastructure planning, as computing will be one of the core services for society alongside electricity and communication services.

5G↗

Toward Intelligent Multimodal Holography for Real-Time Chemical Imaging of Dynamic Ion Separation

Molecular-level visualization of ion transport and separation dynamics in complex environments is crucial for advancing energy systems, water purification, and critical materials recovery. Achieving this requires imaging platforms that combine structural sensitivity, chemical specificity, and real-time operation. Digital off-axis holography (DOAH) provides high-throughput, label-free quantitative phase imaging but inherently lacks chemical selectivity. Integrating DOAH with complementary spectroscopic channels such as fluorescence or hyperspectral imaging introduces the needed molecular specificity, while also creating challenges in multimodal data fusion, synchronization, and computational throughput. Artificial intelligence offers a powerful route to address these limitations by uniting physics-based reconstruction with data-driven interpretation. In this Perspective, we outline a framework for intelligent multimodal holography and demonstrate its potential using a preliminary AI-driven test case. Raw DOAH holograms of lanthanide solutions subjected to magnetic field gradients were analyzed using multi-agent AI workflows that autonomously selected reconstruction tools, extracted NMF components, and generated scientific claims consistent with true paramagnetic and diamagnetic behavior. This demonstration shows how AI-enabled reasoning can deliver real-time chemical–structural interpretation directly from raw holograms. Together, these advances define a path toward adaptive, intelligent holography platforms capable of supporting in situ chemical separations, dynamic ion transport analysis, and next-generation interfacial science.

Ricchiuti, Giovanna↗

Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment and game theory for cyber security risk analysis in nuclear power plants

Nuclear Power Plants and energy systems have become more prone to cyber-attacks with their digitalization and the increased use of smart equipment. Hence, it is important to quantify the risk associated with cyber-attacks in such systems. Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment which involves studying the evolution of a system due to random events and operator and attacker actions during a cyber-attack by employing a physics-based model of the system is a suitable framework to quantify cybersecurity risk in nuclear power plants. In addition to the plant dynamics, it is also important to model the strategies of the attackers and plant operators for an effective cybersecurity risk assessment. Game theory provides a set of necessary tools to model such strategic interactions. In this research, a framework that integrates dynamic probabilistic risk assessment with game theory for cybersecurity risk analysis in nuclear power plants is presented. The mathematical formulation is derived based on the theory of continuous event trees. We propose a game theory based action model, that utilizes physics-based rewards to define the strategies of attackers and operators at every decision epoch. As a case study, the risk associated with cyber-attacks on the digital components in the secondary side of a pressurized water reactor is studied using a reduced order model. A set of attacker actions and a set of operator actions are defined for the system. The operator and attacker interactions were modelled using simultaneous game, their action policies were computed using the concept of mixed strategy Nash equilibrium and the evolution of the system was studied.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

What Questions Would a Systems Engineer Ask to Assess Systems Engineering Models as Credible

Digital Systems Engineering strategies typically call for digital Systems Engineering models to be retained in repositories and certified as an authoritative source of truth (enabling model reuse, qualification, and collaboration). In order for digital Systems Engineering models to be certified as authoritative (credible), they need to be assessed - verified and validated - and with the amount of uncertainty in the model quantified (consider reusing someone else's model without knowing the author). Due to this increasing model complexity, the authors assert that traditional human-based methods for validating, verifying, and uncertainty quantification - such as human-based peer-review sessions - cannot sufficiently establish that a digital Systems Engineering model of a complex system is credible. Digital Systems Engineering models of complex systems can contain millions of nodes and edges. The authors assert that this level of detail is beyond the ability of any group of humans - even working for weeks at a time - to discern and catch every minor model infraction. In contrast, computers are highly effective at discerning infractions with massive amounts of information. The authors suggest that a better approach might be to focus the humans at what model patterns should be assessed and enable the computer to assess the massive details in accordance with those patterns - by running through perhaps 100,000 test loops. In anticipation of future projects to implement and automate the assessment of models at Sandia National Laboratories, a study was initiated to elicit input from a group of 25 Systems Engineering experts. The authors positioning query began with - 'What questions would a Systems Engineer ask to assess Systems Engineering models for credibility?" This report documents the results of that survey.

42 ENGINEERING↗