Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “decision model”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 667 records · Page 37

Modeling and Simulation of Shuttle Launch and Range Operations

The simulation and modeling test bed is based on a mockup of a space flight operations control suitable to experiment physical, procedural, software, hardware and psychological aspects of space flight operations. The test bed consists of a weather expert system to advise on the effect of weather to the launch operations. It also simulates toxic gas dispersion model, impact of human health risk, debris dispersion model in 3D visualization. Since all modeling and simulation is based on the internet, it could reduce the cost of operations of launch and range safety by conducting extensive research before a particular launch. Each model has an independent decision making module to derive the best decision for launch.

Bardina, Jorge↗

Intelligent machines in the twenty-first century: foundations of inference and inquiry

The last century saw the application of Boolean algebra to the construction of computing machines, which work by applying logical transformations to information contained in their memory. The development of information theory and the generalization of Boolean algebra to Bayesian inference have enabled these computing machines, in the last quarter of the twentieth century, to be endowed with the ability to learn by making inferences from data. This revolution is just beginning as new computational techniques continue to make difficult problems more accessible. Recent advances in our understanding of the foundations of probability theory have revealed implications for areas other than logic. Of relevance to intelligent machines, we recently identified the algebra of questions as the free distributive algebra, which will now allow us to work with questions in a way analogous to that which Boolean algebra enables us to work with logical statements. In this paper, we examine the foundations of inference and inquiry. We begin with a history of inferential reasoning, highlighting key concepts that have led to the automation of inference in modern machine-learning systems. We then discuss the foundations of inference in more detail using a modern viewpoint that relies on the mathematics of partially ordered sets and the scaffolding of lattice theory. This new viewpoint allows us to develop the logic of inquiry and introduce a measure describing the relevance of a proposed question to an unresolved issue. Last, we will demonstrate the automation of inference, and discuss how this new logic of inquiry will enable intelligent machines to ask questions. Automation of both inference and inquiry promises to allow robots to perform science in the far reaches of our solar system and in other star systems by enabling them not only to make inferences from data, but also to decide which question to ask, which experiment to perform, or which measurement to take given what they have learned and what they are designed to understand.

Review↗

Quantifying the performance limits of human saccadic targeting during visual search

In previous studies of saccadic targeting, the issue how visually guided saccades to unambiguous targets are programmed and executed has been examined. These studies have found different degrees of guidance for saccades depending on the task and task difficulty. In this study, we use ideal-observer analysis to estimate the visual information used for the first saccade during a search for a target disk in noise. We quantitatively compare the performance of the first saccadic decision to that of the ideal observer (ie absolute efficiency of the first saccade) and to that of the associated final perceptual decision at the end of the search (ie relative efficiency of the first saccade). Our results show, first, that at all levels of salience tested, the first saccade is based on visual information from the stimulus display, and its highest absolute efficiency is approximately 20%. Second, the efficiency of the first saccade is lower than that of the final perceptual decision after active search (with eye movements) and has a minimum relative efficiency of 19% at the lowest level of saliency investigated. Third, we found that requiring observers to maintain central fixation (no saccades allowed) decreased the absolute efficiency of their perceptual decision by up to a factor of two, but that the magnitude of this effect depended on target salience. Our results demonstrate that ideal-observer analysis can be extended to measure the visual information mediating saccadic target-selection decisions during visual search, which enables direct comparison of saccadic and perceptual efficiencies.

Non-NASA Center↗

Online fault adaptive control for efficient resource management in Advanced Life Support Systems

This article presents the design and implementation of a controller scheme for efficient resource management in Advanced Life Support Systems. In the proposed approach, a switching hybrid system model is used to represent the dynamics of the system components and their interactions. The operational specifications for the controller are represented by utility functions, and the corresponding resource management problem is formulated as a safety control problem. The controller is designed as a limited-horizon online supervisory controller that performs a limited forward search on the state-space of the system at each time step, and uses the utility functions to decide on the best action. The feasibility and accuracy of the online algorithm can be assessed at design time. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the scheme by running a set of experiments on the Reverse Osmosis (RO) subsystem of the Water Recovery System (WRS).

NASA Discipline Life Support Systems↗

Distributed Web-Based Expert System for Launch Operations

The simulation and modeling of launch operations is based on a representation of the organization of the operations suitable to experiment of the physical, procedural, software, hardware and psychological aspects of space flight operations. The virtual test bed consists of a weather expert system to advice on the effect of weather to the launch operations. It also simulates toxic gas dispersion model, and the risk impact on human health. Since all modeling and simulation is based on the internet, it could reduce the cost of operations of launch and range safety by conducting extensive research before a particular launch. Each model has an independent decision making module to derive the best decision for launch.

Bardina, Jorge E.↗

Analytic Verification of Flight Software

In the realm of space exploration, the biggest obstacle to widespread application of autonomy in flight software is not technical feasibility; it is doubt about its trustworthiness as a replacement for human-in-the-loop decision-making.

model↗

The Integrated Medical Model - Optimizing In-flight Space Medical Systems to Reduce Crew Health Risk and Mission Impacts

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool used by medical system planners and designers as they prepare for exploration planning activities of the Constellation program (CxP). IMM provides an evidence-based approach to help optimize the allocation of in-flight medical resources for a specified level of risk within spacecraft operational constraints. Eighty medical conditions and associated resources are represented in IMM. Nine conditions are due to Space Adaptation Syndrome. The IMM helps answer fundamental medical mission planning questions such as What medical conditions can be expected? What type and quantity of medical resources are most likely to be used?", and "What is the probability of crew death or evacuation due to medical events?" For a specified mission and crew profile, the IMM effectively characterizes the sequence of events that could potentially occur should a medical condition happen. The mathematical relationships among mission and crew attributes, medical conditions and incidence data, in-flight medical resources, potential clinical and crew health end states are established to generate end state probabilities. A Monte Carlo computational method is used to determine the probable outcomes and requires up to 25,000 mission trials to reach convergence. For each mission trial, the pharmaceuticals and supplies required to diagnose and treat prevalent medical conditions are tracked and decremented. The uncertainty of patient response to treatment is bounded via a best-case, worst-case, untreated case algorithm. A Crew Health Index (CHI) metric, developed to account for functional impairment due to a medical condition, provides a quantified measure of risk and enables risk comparisons across mission scenarios. The use of historical in-flight medical data, terrestrial surrogate data as appropriate, and space medicine subject matter expertise has enabled the development of a probabilistic, stochastic decision support tool capable of optimizing in-flight medical systems based on crew and mission parameters. This presentation will illustrate how to apply quantitative risk assessment methods to optimize the mass and volume of space-based medical systems for a space flight mission given the level of crew health and mission risk.

Kerstman, Eric↗

Multi Sensor Approach to Address Sustainable Development

The main objectives of Earth Science research are many folds: to understand how does this planet operates, can we model her operation and eventually develop the capability to predict such changes. However, the underlying goals of this work are to eventually serve the humanity in providing societal benefits. This requires continuous, and detailed observations from many sources in situ, airborne and space. By and large, the space observations are the way to comprehend the global phenomena across continental boundaries and provide credible boundary conditions for the mesoscale studies. This requires a multiple sensors, look angles and measurements over the same spot in accurately solving many problems that may be related to air quality, multi hazard disasters, public health, hydrology and more. Therefore, there are many ways to address these issues and develop joint implementation, data sharing and operating strategies for the benefit of the world community. This is because for large geographical areas or regions and a diverse population, some sound observations, scientific facts and analytical models must support the decision making. This is crucial for the sustainability of vital resources of the world and at the same time to protect the inhabitants, endangered species and the ecology. Needless to say, there is no single sensor, which can answer all such questions effectively. Due to multi sensor approach, it puts a tremendous burden on any single implementing entity in terms of information, knowledge, budget, technology readiness and computational power. And, more importantly, the health of planet Earth and its ability to sustain life is not governed by a single country, but in reality, is everyone's business on this planet. Therefore, with this notion, it is becoming an impractical problem by any single organization/country to bear this colossal responsibility. So far, each developed country within their means has proceeded along satisfactorily in implementing their Earth observing needs but it has left a big void in the developing world who have very limited resources to invest in the space measurements. This paper gives some serious thoughts in what options are there in undertaking this tremendous challenge. The problem is multi-dimensional in terms of budget, technology availability, environmental legislations, public awareness, and communication limitations. Some of these issues are introduced, discussed and possible implementation strategies are provided in this paper to move out of this predicament. A strong emphasis is placed on international cooperation and collaboration to see a collective benefit for this effort

Habib, Shahid↗

An Accident Precursor Analysis Process Tailored for NASA Space Systems

Accident Precursor Analysis (APA) serves as the bridge between existing risk modeling activities, which are often based on historical or generic failure statistics, and system anomalies, which provide crucial information about the failure mechanisms that are actually operative in the system and which may differ in frequency or type from those in the various models. These discrepancies between the models (perceived risk) and the system (actual risk) provide the leading indication of an underappreciated risk. This paper presents an APA process developed specifically for NASA Earth-to-Orbit space systems. The purpose of the process is to identify and characterize potential sources of system risk as evidenced by anomalous events which, although not necessarily presenting an immediate safety impact, may indicate that an unknown or insufficiently understood risk-significant condition exists in the system. Such anomalous events are considered accident precursors because they signal the potential for severe consequences that may occur in the future, due to causes that are discernible from their occurrence today. Their early identification allows them to be integrated into the overall system risk model used to intbrm decisions relating to safety.

Groen, Frank↗

NASA Tech Briefs, May 2010

Topics covered include: Instrument for Analysis of Greenland's Glacier Mills Cryogenic Moisture Apparatus; A Transportable Gravity Gradiometer Based on Atom Interferometry; Three Methods of Detection of Hydrazines; Crossed, Small-Deflection Energy Analyzer for Wind/Temperature Spectrometer; Wavefront Correction for Large, Flexible Antenna Reflector; Novel Micro Strip-to-Waveguide Feed Employing a Double-Y Junction; Thin-Film Ferro Electric-Coupled Microstripline Phase Shifters With Reduced Device Hysteresis; Two-Stage, 90-GHz, Low-Noise Amplifier; A 311-GHz Fundamental Oscillator Using InP HBT Technology; FPGA Coprocessor Design for an Onboard Multi-Angle Spectro-Polarimetric Imager; Serrating Nozzle Surfaces for Complete Transfer of Droplets; Turbomolecular Pumps for Holding Gases in Open Containers; Triaxial Swirl Injector Element for Liquid-Fueled Engines; Integrated Budget Office Toolbox; PLOT3D Export Tool for Tecplot; Math Description Engine Software Development Kit; Astronaut Office Scheduling System Software; ISS Solar Array Management; Probabilistic Structural Analysis Program; SPOT Program; Integrated Hybrid System Architecture for Risk Analysis; System for Packaging Planetary Samples for Return to Earth; Offset Compound Gear Drive; Low-Dead-Volume Inlet for Vacuum Chamber; Simple Check Valves for Microfluidic Devices; A Capillary-Based Static Phase Separator for Highly Variable Wetting Conditions; Gimballing Spacecraft Thruster; Finned Carbon-Carbon Heat Pipe with Potassium Working Fluid; Lightweight Heat Pipes Made from Magnesium; Ceramic Rail-Race Ball Bearings; Improved OTEC System for a Submarine Robot; Reflector Surface Error Compensation in Dual-Reflector Antennas; Enriched Storable Oxidizers for Rocket Engines; Planar Submillimeter-Wave Mixer Technology with Integrated Antenna; Widely Tunable Mode-Hop-Free External-Cavity Quantum Cascade Laser; Non-Geiger-Mode Single-Photon Avalanche Detector with Low Excess Noise; Using Whispering-Gallery-Mode Resonators for Refractometry; RF Device for Acquiring Images of the Human Body; Reactive Collision Avoidance Algorithm; Fast Solution in Sparse LDA for Binary Classification; Modeling Common-Sense Decisions in Artificial Intelligence; Graph-Based Path-Planning for Titan Balloons; Nanolaminate Membranes as Cylindrical Telescope Reflectors; Air-Sea Spray Airborne Radar Profiler Characterizes Energy Fluxes in Hurricanes; Large Telescope Segmented Primary Mirror Alignment; and Simplified Night Sky Display System.

Source record↗

The Use of the Integrated Medical Model for Forecasting and Mitigating Medical Risks for a Near-Earth Asteroid Mission

Introduction The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to space flight mission managers and medical system designers in assessing risks and optimizing medical systems. The IMM employs an evidence-based, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach within the operational constraints of space flight. Methods Stochastic computational methods are used to forecast probability distributions of medical events, crew health metrics, medical resource utilization, and probability estimates of medical evacuation and loss of crew life. The IMM can also optimize medical kits within the constraints of mass and volume for specified missions. The IMM was used to forecast medical evacuation and loss of crew life probabilities, as well as crew health metrics for a near-earth asteroid (NEA) mission. An optimized medical kit for this mission was proposed based on the IMM simulation. Discussion The IMM can provide information to the space program regarding medical risks, including crew medical impairment, medical evacuation and loss of crew life. This information is valuable to mission managers and the space medicine community in assessing risk and developing mitigation strategies. Exploration missions such as NEA missions will have significant mass and volume constraints applied to the medical system. Appropriate allocation of medical resources will be critical to mission success. The IMM capability of optimizing medical systems based on specific crew and mission profiles will be advantageous to medical system designers. Conclusion The IMM is a decision support tool that can provide estimates of the impact of medical events on human space flight missions, such as crew impairment, evacuation, and loss of crew life. It can be used to support the development of mitigation strategies and to propose optimized medical systems for specified space flight missions. Learning Objectives The audience will learn how an evidence-based decision support tool can be used to help assess risk, develop mitigation strategies, and optimize medical systems for exploration space flight missions.

Kerstman, Eric↗

Ground and Range Operations for a Heavy-Lift Vehicle: Preliminary Thoughts

This paper discusses the ground and range operations for a Shuttle derived Heavy-Lift Vehicle being launched from the Kennedy Space Center on the Eastern range. Comparisons will be made between the Shuttle and a heavy lift configuration (SLS-ETF MPCV April 2011) by contrasting their subsystems. The analysis will also describe a simulation configuration with the potential to be utilized for heavy lift vehicle processing/range simulation modeling and the development of decision-making systems utilized by the range. In addition, a simple simulation model is used to provide the required critical thinking foundations for this preliminary analysis.

Rabelo, Luis↗

Evaluating Models of Human Performance: Safety-Critical Systems Applications

This presentation is part of panel discussion on Evaluating Models of Human Performance. The purpose of this panel is to discuss the increasing use of models in the world today and specifically focus on how to describe and evaluate models of human performance. My presentation will focus on discussions of generating distributions of performance, and the evaluation of different strategies for humans performing tasks with mixed initiative (Human-Automation) systems. I will also discuss issues with how to provide Human Performance modeling data to support decisions on acceptability and tradeoffs in the design of safety critical systems. I will conclude with challenges for the future.

Feary, Michael S.↗

Survivability Versus Time

Develop Survivability vs Time Model as a decision-evaluation tool to assess various emergency egress methods used at Launch Complex 39B (LC 39B) and in the Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB) on NASAs Kennedy Space Center. For each hazard scenario, develop probability distributions to address statistical uncertainty resulting in survivability plots over time and composite survivability plots encompassing multiple hazard scenarios.

Probability Distribution Function↗

Credible Practice of Models and Simulations for Healthcare

As computational models penetrate clinical care and drive healthcare policy decisions, there is increasing need to communicate that model creation and testing follows reasonable credible practice. Although verification and validation have been generally accepted as significant components of a model’s credibility, they cannot be assumed to equate to a holistic credible practice, which includes activities that can impact comprehension and in-depth examination inherent in the development and reuse of the models. This presentation introduces the Ten Rules for credible practice of modeling and simulation in healthcare developed from a comparative multidisciplinary analysis and practitioner survey. These rules establish a unified conceptual framework for modeling and simulation design, implementation, evaluation, dissemination and usage across the modeling and simulation life-cycle. Although some of these are common sense guidelines, many are often missed or misconstrued, even by seasoned practitioners.

credibility↗

Developing a digital twin for hydropower systems - an open platform framework

The definition of digital twin in Wikipedia says “A digital twin is a virtual representation that serves as the real-time digital counterpart of a physical object or process.” Indeed, the digital twin (DT) concept was initially introduced at the start of the 21st century with intent to create a digital model to reflect physical systems and derive insight from the model to make the decision on system operation. DT is also a promising enabling technology for realising smart manufacturing and industry 4.0. In general, DTs consist of three main parts: physical product, virtual product, and connected data that link physical and virtual product via various data communication schemes.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Beam-Based Target Alignment for Mu2e

The Mu2e Experiment is a precision experiment at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory, searching for charged lepton flavor violation (CLFV) in the conversion of a muon to an electron in the presence of an atomic nucleus. In order to achieve the expected single-event sensitivity of $3\times 10^{-17}$ , Mu2e will require an intense muon beam, generated via pion decay. These pions are the product of a proton beam striking a radiatively-cooled tungsten target. In order to maximize pion production and prevent target failure, the beam will have to be aligned with the target center to within 0.5 mm. The production target monitor (PTM) will ensure this alignment. The PTM consists of a series of proportional wire chambers (PWC’s) upstream and downstream of the production target. In this dissertation, I explain the requirements of this detector system and derive the decisions about which detector model to use and how they should be arranged from these requirements. After this, I describe my e xperience building the detectors and show an early use for them in the Mu2e proton beam. I also performed a study of the sensitivity and time resolution of this model of PWC and its electronics, and give the results here. I then describe a series of simulation campaigns which shed light on the interactions between the beam and the target, and how these interactions manifest on the downstream detectors. Finally, I give the target scanning procedure to be used to align the beam and target during experiment start up.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗