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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 667 records · Page 37
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2014

A decomposition‐based approach to uncertainty analysis of feed‐forward multicomponent systems

SUMMARY To support effective decision making, engineers should comprehend and manage various uncertainties throughout the design process. Unfortunately, in today's modern systems, uncertainty analysis can become cumbersome and computationally intractable for one individual or group to manage. This is particularly true for systems comprised of a large number of components. In many cases, these components may be developed by different groups and even run on different computational platforms. This paper proposes an approach for decomposing the uncertainty analysis task among the various components comprising a feed‐forward system and synthesizing the local uncertainty analyses into a system uncertainty analysis. Our proposed decomposition‐based multicomponent uncertainty analysis approach is shown to be provably convergent in distribution under certain conditions. The proposed method is illustrated on quantification of uncertainty for a multidisciplinary gas turbine system and is compared to a traditional system‐level Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis approach. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Amaral, Sergio↗
NASA NTRS2018

Coupled Radiative Thermal and Nonlinear Stress Analysis for Thermal Deformation in Large Space Structures

Large space structures are capable of large thermal deformations in the space environment. A case of large-scale thermal deformation was observed in the analysis of the Near Earth Asteroid Scout solar sail, with predicted tip displacements of more than one meter in seven-meter booms. Experimental data supports the broad conclusions of the analysis, but shows poor agreement on the details of the thermal deformation. Prediction that is precise enough to drive engineering decisions will require coupled thermal-stress analysis with features that are not found in current multiphysics codes. This paper describes a simple method for stepwise coupling between commercial nonlinear stress analysis software and radiative thermal analysis software. Results are presented for a round stainless steel tube, which is a common case in existing literature.

Stohlman, Olive R.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Key Mars Architecture Decisions

As noted in the 2022 Architecture Concept Review Systems Analysis of Architecture Drivers white paper, exploration architectures are heavily influenced by the order in which driving questions are answered. Decisions in one part of the architecture will ripple through other parts of the architecture and beyond, often in ways that are not intuitively obvious.

Michelle A Rucker↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Accounting for Point Estimate Uncertainty in Space Systems Reliability and Risk Analysis

Understanding and accounting for uncertainty in risk analysis is a critical step in the management and communication of risk in engineered systems. The component and system-level analysis to determine the probability of a negative outcome and its consequence is often quantified by a point estimate. Many Program and Enterprise decisions involving technical concerns and issues rely on reliability engineering activities to produce quantified risk analysis to inform the decision making process. At NASA, it is common to use a Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) to inform the overall risk to Loss of Mission or Loss of Crew that involves integration across all spacecraft subsystem fault trees to produce an overall probability of mission failure. The point estimate is an estimate of this overall probability and is an immediate result of a fault tree model. It is the result of a model where the probability of each event is taken to be equal to its mean. The value provides an approximation of the overall mean without running any uncertainty calculations (e.g., no sampling). Using only the point estimate can lead to a false sense of precision and the point estimate may not match the resulting mean when uncertainty is taken into consideration. This paper will explore five conditions that can cause the PRA model mean to diverge from the point estimate and will provide engineers and managers insight into the importance of understanding uncertainty in the elements of PRA models.

Paul J Collier↗
NASA NTRS2003

System Risk Assessment and Allocation in Conceptual Design

As aerospace systems continue to evolve in addressing newer challenges in air and space transportation, there exists a heightened priority for significant improvement in system performance, cost effectiveness, reliability, and safety. Tools, which synthesize multidisciplinary integration, probabilistic analysis, and optimization, are needed to facilitate design decisions allowing trade-offs between cost and reliability. This study investigates tools for probabilistic analysis and probabilistic optimization in the multidisciplinary design of aerospace systems. A probabilistic optimization methodology is demonstrated for the low-fidelity design of a reusable launch vehicle at two levels, a global geometry design and a local tank design. Probabilistic analysis is performed on a high fidelity analysis of a Navy missile system. Furthermore, decoupling strategies are introduced to reduce the computational effort required for multidisciplinary systems with feedback coupling.

Mahadevan, Sankaran↗
DOE OSTI2018

An energy-aware multiobjective ant colony algorithm to minimize total completion time and energy cost on a single-machine preemptive scheduling

Energy-aware scheduling in manufacturing operations with time-of-use electricity tariffs is a challenging problem. Sustainable manufacturing is gaining significant momentum: companies are not only improving their product quality, but also optimizing the production processes to improve energy consumption (i.e., minimizing energy cost) in order to manage environmental challenges which contribute to global climate change. The purpose of this paper is to study a preemptive scheduling problem on a single-machine to minimize the total completion time and total energy cost under time-of-use electricity tariffs, which is a mixed-integer multiobjective mathematical programming model. To solve these objectives, we develop several new holistic ant colony optimization algorithms. The proposed model is solved via several methods including weighted sum method (WSM) using CPLEX, and multiobjective ant colony optimization based on a dominance ranking (ACO-DR) or based on a dominance ranking procedure and crowding distance comparison (ACO-DRC) or based on a heuristic approach to obtain an approximate Pareto-front and also provide information on when to start and resume each job for any solution on the Pareto-front. We provide detailed experimental results evaluating the performance of the proposed algorithms. In a case study, we demonstrate how the results of the multiobjective model could be utilized in decision making using the multiobjective optimization on the basis of ratio analysis (MOORA) method. Furthermore, this proposed model and heuristics allows decision makers to operate in challenging-data enabled environments in industrial internet of things ecosystem, and assists in optimizing production planning to improve energy cost.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2017

Complexity Science: A Mechanism for Strategic Foresight and Resiliency in National Security Decision-Making.

Most national policy decisions are complex with a variety of stakeholders, disparate interests and the potential for unintended consequences. While a number of analytical tools exist to help decision makers sort through the mountains of data and myriad of options, decision support teams are increasingly turning to complexity science for improved analysis and better insight into the potential impact of policy decisions. While complexity science has great potential, it has only proven useful in limited case s and when properly applied. In advance of more widespread use, a national - level effort to refine complexity science and more rigorously establish its technical underpinnings is recommended.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

CyclusJS: A Distributed Web-based Fuel Cycle Visual Analytics. Research Performance (Final Report)

The overall aim of the CyclusJS project has been to design novel approaches that support fuel cycle simulations and empower decision-makers and researchers with better tools to compare and contrast results from multiple simulations to understand the landscape of potential outcomes better. In particular, nuclear fuel cycle simulations focus on modeling the nuclear industry and ecosystem at a macroscopic level, and the analysis tools connect such simulations with decision support systems. As a demonstration of the novelty and effectiveness of the proposed approach, we study scenarios for transitioning from one technology, Light Water Reactors (LWR), to a newer Sodium-cooled Fast breeder Reactor (SFR) technology.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unpacking Modeling Analysis for the Circular Economy

This session will cover: (1) How models simulate material recovery, recycling, product life cycles and waste management. (2) Using life cycle analysis (LCA) to measure environmental impacts across product life cycles and guide decision-making. (3) Optimizing resource use, reducing energy consumption and minimizing waste in recycling systems. (4) Evaluating EPR and other interventions through scenario analysis to make informed decisions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

PermitTEC v0.1: Standardized Metadata Corpus of NEPA Litigation Documents

The National Environmental Policy Act of 1969, as amended (NEPA), mandates that federal agencies assess and document potential environmental impacts before deciding on proposed actions. While significant progress has been made in cataloging and standardizing NEPA documents themselves, the legal challenges that frequently arise from these decisions remain poorly cataloged and largely inaccessible for systematic analysis. Litigation challenging NEPA compliance can substantially delay project timelines, reshape agency decision-making, and establish precedents that influence future environmental reviews — yet no standardized, machine-readable corpus exists that links litigation records to the NEPA projects they contest.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Disposition of Hanford Tank Waste sludge from tank 241-AY-102 and the 241-Aa/241-AX farm tanks - 15298

WRPS must retrieve the waste from double-shell tank 241-AY-102 and the single-shell tanks in the 241A and -AX Tank Farms, while finishing the ongoing retrieval of tanks in the 241-C Tank Farm. Given the limited availability of double-shell tank space, the challenge is to identify an optimum combination of double-shell tanks that can safely and efficiently serve as receiver tanks for the combined inventory of sludge wastes from these source tanks. A multiple-criteria, weighted-sum decision-making process, in conjunction with sensitivity analysis and a Pareto evaluation, was used to determine the optimum set of receiver tanks. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Adapting Existing Energy Planning, Simulation, and Operational Models for Resilience Analysis

Resilience is a topic receiving much attention in relation to energy systems, with particular attention being paid to the supply of electricity. As a result, research communities have proposed a plethora of candidate indicators and metrics for resilience, most of which remain immature at different scales and segments within the energy system. Given the complexity of resilience analyses and mitigation strategies, there is limited value in attempting to identify a single resilience metric, as no one metric can quantify resilience or its associated value for all stakeholders. Instead, a necessary focus of the research community should lie in implementing, testing, and validating resilience metrics and analysis approaches in energy sector models, which will be invaluable for informing resilience planning and investment decisions. Recognizing that implementing, testing, and validating resilience metrics are challenges that need to be addressed, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) dedicated staff and time to researching how to effectively integrate resilience considerations into energy sector models and tools, as part of the Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program. The overarching goal of the effort was to evaluate the data needs, methodologies, and outcomes - including consequences and/or changes in investment or operational decisions due to avoided consequences - based on resilience analysis in a range of existing tools. In particular, we selected five models originally built at NREL to explore non-resilience energy research questions to implement and exercise resilience metrics and analysis approaches.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Selecting and Implementing Resilience Metrics in Existing Energy Sector Models [Slides]

Resilience is a topic receiving much attention in relation to energy systems, with particular attention being paid to the supply of electricity. As a result of the growing interest in energy sector resilience, research communities have proposed a plethora of candidate resilience indicators and metrics, most of which remain immature at different scales and segments within the energy system. A necessary focus of the research community lies in implementing, testing, and validating resilience metrics and analysis approaches in energy sector models, which will be invaluable for informing resilience planning and investment decisions. Recognizing these challenges that need to be addressed, we explore how to effectively integrate resilience considerations into energy sector models and tools. The overarching goal of the effort was to evaluate the data needs, methodologies, and outcomes - including consequences and/or changes in investment or operational decisions due to avoided consequences - based on resilience analysis in a range of existing tools. In particular, we selected five models originally built at NREL to explore non-resilience energy research questions to implement and exercise resilience metrics and analysis approaches. To demonstrate the importance of perspective, we selected models that represent different segments of the energy sector, geographic scales, and modeling approaches. A second important aspect of our effort was the development of generalized power interruption scenarios. These scenarios were intended to help establish a framework for simulating the effects of real-world threats in terms of their impacts on system components and, in turn, power interruption.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS2003

Using Computational Cognitive Modeling to Diagnose Possible Sources of Aviation Error

We present a computational model of a closed-loop, pilot-aircraft-visual scene-taxiway system created to shed light on possible sources of taxi error. Creating the cognitive aspects of the model using ACT-R required us to conduct studies with subject matter experts to identify experiential adaptations pilots bring to taxiing. Five decision strategies were found, ranging from cognitively-intensive but precise, to fast, frugal but robust. We provide evidence for the model by comparing its behavior to a NASA Ames Research Center simulation of Chicago O'Hare surface operations. Decision horizons were highly variable; the model selected the most accurate strategy given time available. We found a signature in the simulation data of the use of globally robust heuristics to cope with short decision horizons as revealed by errors occurring most frequently at atypical taxiway geometries or clearance routes. These data provided empirical support for the model.

Pilots↗
DOE OSTI2019

Systems and methods for estimation and prediction of battery health and performance

Systems and computer-implemented methods are used for analyzing battery information. The battery information may be acquired from both passive data acquisition and active data acquisition. Active data may be used for feature extraction and parameter identification responsive to the input data relative to an electrical equivalent circuit model to develop geometric-based parameters and optimization-based parameters. These parameters can be combined with a decision fusion algorithm to develop internal battery parameters. Analysis processes including particle filter analysis, neural network analysis, and auto regressive moving average analysis can be used to analyze the internal battery parameters and develop battery health metrics. Additional decision fusion algorithms can be used to combine the internal battery parameters and the battery health metrics to develop state-of-health estimations, state-of-charge estimations, remaining-useful-life predictions, and end-of-life predictions for the battery.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Adapting Existing Energy Models for Resilience Analysis

Resilience is a topic receiving much attention in relation to energy systems, with particular attention being paid to the supply of electricity. As a result of the growing interest in energy sector resilience, research communities have proposed a plethora of candidate resilience indicators and metrics, most of which remain immature at different scales and segments within the energy system. A necessary focus of the research community lies in implementing, testing, and validating resilience metrics and analysis approaches in energy sector models, which will be invaluable for informing resilience planning and investment decisions. Recognizing these challenges that need to be addressed, we explore how to effectively integrate resilience considerations into energy sector models and tools. The overarching goal of the effort was to evaluate the data needs, methodologies, and outcomes—including consequences and/or changes in investment or operational decisions due to avoided consequences—based on resilience analysis in a range of existing tools. In particular, we selected five models originally built at NREL to explore non-resilience energy research questions to implement and exercise resilience metrics and analysis approaches. To demonstrate the importance of perspective, we selected models that represent different segments of the energy sector, geographic scales, and modeling approaches. A second important aspect of our effort was the development of generalized power interruption scenarios. These scenarios were intended to help establish a framework for simulating the effects of real-world threats in terms of their impacts on system components and, in turn, power interruption.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Full Karyotype Interphase Cell Analysis

Aneuploidy seems to play not only a decisive role in embryonal development but also in tumorigenesis where chromosomal and genomic instability reflect a universal feature of malignant tumors. The cost of whole genome sequencing has fallen significantly, but it is still prohibitive for many institutions and clinical settings. No applied, cost-effective, and efficient technique has been introduced yet aiming at research to assess the ploidy status of all 24 different human chromosomes in interphases simultaneously, especially in single cells. Here, we present the selection of human probe DNA and a technique using multistep fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) employing four sets of six labeled FISH probes able to delineate all 24 human chromosomes in interphase cells. This full karyotype analysis approach will provide additional diagnostic potential for single cell analysis. The use of spectral imaging (SIm) has enabled the use of up to eight different fluorochrome labels simultaneously. Thus, scoring can be easily assessed by visual inspection, because SIm permits computer-assigned and distinguishable pseudo-colors to each probe during image processing. This enables full karyotype analysis by FISH of single-cell interphase nuclei.

Baumgartner, Adi↗