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At least 667 records · Page 37

High-Efficiency High-Resolution Global Model Developments at the NASA Goddard Data Assimilation Office

The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) has been developing a new generation of ultra-high resolution General Circulation Model (GCM) that is suitable for 4-D data assimilation, numerical weather predictions, and climate simulations. These three applications have conflicting requirements. For 4-D data assimilation and weather predictions, it is highly desirable to run the model at the highest possible spatial resolution (e.g., 55 km or finer) so as to be able to resolve and predict socially and economically important weather phenomena such as tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and severe winter storms. For climate change applications, the model simulations need to be carried out for decades, if not centuries. To reduce uncertainty in climate change assessments, the next generation model would also need to be run at a fine enough spatial resolution that can at least marginally simulate the effects of intense tropical cyclones. Scientific problems (e.g., parameterization of subgrid scale moist processes) aside, all three areas of application require the model's computational performance to be dramatically improved as compared to the previous generation. In this talk, I will present the current and future developments of the "finite-volume dynamical core" at the Data Assimilation Office. This dynamical core applies modem monotonicity preserving algorithms and is genuinely conservative by construction, not by an ad hoc fixer. The "discretization" of the conservation laws is purely local, which is clearly advantageous for resolving sharp gradient flow features. In addition, the local nature of the finite-volume discretization also has a significant advantage on distributed memory parallel computers. Together with a unique vertically Lagrangian control volume discretization that essentially reduces the dimension of the computational problem from three to two, the finite-volume dynamical core is very efficient, particularly at high resolutions. I will also present the computational design of the dynamical core using a hybrid distributed-shared memory programming paradigm that is portable to virtually any of today's high-end parallel super-computing clusters.

Lin, Shian-Jiann↗

High-Efficiency High-Resolution Global Model Developments at the NASA Goddard Data Assimilation Office

The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) has been developing a new generation of ultra-high resolution General Circulation Model (GCM) that is suitable for 4-D data assimilation, numerical weather predictions, and climate simulations. These three applications have conflicting requirements. For 4-D data assimilation and weather predictions, it is highly desirable to run the model at the highest possible spatial resolution (e.g., 55 kin or finer) so as to be able to resolve and predict socially and economically important weather phenomena such as tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and severe winter storms. For climate change applications, the model simulations need to be carried out for decades, if not centuries. To reduce uncertainty in climate change assessments, the next generation model would also need to be run at a fine enough spatial resolution that can at least marginally simulate the effects of intense tropical cyclones. Scientific problems (e.g., parameterization of subgrid scale moist processes) aside, all three areas of application require the model's computational performance to be dramatically improved as compared to the previous generation. In this talk, I will present the current and future developments of the "finite-volume dynamical core" at the Data Assimilation Office. This dynamical core applies modem monotonicity preserving algorithms and is genuinely conservative by construction, not by an ad hoc fixer. The "discretization" of the conservation laws is purely local, which is clearly advantageous for resolving sharp gradient flow features. In addition, the local nature of the finite-volume discretization also has a significant advantage on distributed memory parallel computers. Together with a unique vertically Lagrangian control volume discretization that essentially reduces the dimension of the computational problem from three to two, the finite-volume dynamical core is very efficient, particularly at high resolutions. I will also present the computational design of the dynamical core using a hybrid distributed- shared memory programming paradigm that is portable to virtually any of today's high-end parallel super-computing clusters.

Lin, Shian-Jiann↗

Studies of 21st-Century Precipitation Trends Over West Africa

West Africa includes a semi-arid zone between the Sahara Desert and the humid Gulf of Guinea coast, approximately between 10 N and 20 N, which is irrigated by summer monsoon rains. This article refers to the region as the Sahel. Rain-fed agriculture is the primary sustenance for Sahel populations, and severe droughts (in the 1970s and 1980s), therefore, have devastating negative societal impacts. The future frequency of Sahel droughts and the evolution of its hydrological balance are therefore of great interest. The article reviews 10 recent research studies that attempt to discover how climate changes will affect the hydrology of the Sahel throughout the 21st century. All 10 studies rely on atmosphere ocean global climate model (AOGCM) simulations based on a range of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Many of the simulations are contained in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change archives for Assessment Reports #3 and #4. Two of the studies use AOGCM data to drive regional climate models. Seven studies make projections for the first half of the 21st century and eight studies make projections for the second half. Some studies make projections of wetter conditions and some predict more frequent droughts, and each describes the atmospheric processes associated with its prediction. Only one study projects more frequent droughts before 2050, and that is only for continent-wide degradation in vegetation cover. The challenge to correctly simulate Sahel rainfall decadal trends is particularly daunting because multiple physical mechanisms compete to drive the trend upwards or downwards. A variety of model deficiencies, regarding the simulation of one or more of these physical processes, taints models climate change projections. Consequently, no consensus emerges regarding the impact of anticipated greenhouse gas forcing on the hydrology of the Sahel in the second half of the 21st century.

Druyan, Leonard M.↗

Architecture, Voltage, and Components for a Turboelectric Distributed Propulsion Electric Grid

The development of a wholly superconducting turboelectric distributed propulsion system presents unique opportunities for the aerospace industry. However, this transition from normally conducting systems to superconducting systems significantly increases the equipment complexity necessary to manage the electrical power systems. Due to the low technology readiness level (TRL) nature of all components and systems, current Turboelectric Distributed Propulsion (TeDP) technology developments are driven by an ambiguous set of system-level electrical integration standards for an airborne microgrid system (Figure 1). While multiple decades' worth of advancements are still required for concept realization, current system-level studies are necessary to focus the technology development, target specific technological shortcomings, and enable accurate prediction of concept feasibility and viability. An understanding of the performance sensitivity to operating voltages and an early definition of advantageous voltage regulation standards for unconventional airborne microgrids will allow for more accurate targeting of technology development. Propulsive power-rated microgrid systems necessitate the introduction of new aircraft distribution system voltage standards. All protection, distribution, control, power conversion, generation, and cryocooling equipment are affected by voltage regulation standards. Information on the desired operating voltage and voltage regulation is required to determine nominal and maximum currents for sizing distribution and fault isolation equipment, developing machine topologies and machine controls, and the physical attributes of all component shielding and insulation. Voltage impacts many components and system performance.

electric faults↗

Current Status of Shock Layer Radiation Studies for Planetary Probes

Radiative heating by the shock layer gases surrounding an entry probe is an important heating mechanism for many planetary entries. The magnitude of radiative heating for planetary atmospheres may be characterized with flight similarity in a shock tube capable of obtaining flight relevant velocities and atmospheric density/composition. Over the last decade, studies performed in the Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) at NASA Ames have characterized the radiative heating magnitudes for most relevant planetary destinations: Mars, Venus, Titan, Saturn, Uranus. Predictions of heating for a given entry trajectory are simulated by a combination of hypersonic flowfield modeling and the radiation code, NEQAIR, and then compared to the EAST test data. This paper will discuss the measurements, summarize the current simulation capability and provide indications for destination specific radiative heating uncertainties.

Cruden, Brett A.↗

COVID-19 Lockdowns Drive Decline in Active Fires in Southeastern United States

Fire is a common ecosystem process in forests and grasslands worldwide. Increasingly, ignitions are controlled by human activities either through suppression of wildfires or intentional ignition of prescribed fires. The Southeastern United States leads the nation in prescribed fire, burning ca. 80% of the countries extent annually. The COVID-19 pandemic radically changed human behavior as workplaces implemented social-distancing guidelines and provided an opportunity to evaluate relationships between humans and fire as fire management plans were postponed or cancelled. Using active fire data from satellite-based observations, we found that in the Southeastern United States, COVID-19 led to a 21% reduction in fire activity compared to the 2003-2019 average. The reduction was more pronounced for federally managed lands, up to 41% below average compared to the past 20-years (38% below average compared to the past decade). Declines in fire activity were partly affected by an unusually wet February before the COVID-19 shutdown began in mid-March 2020. Despite the wet spring, the predicted number of active fire detections was still lower than expected, confirming a COVID-19 signal on ignitions. In addition, prescribed fire management statistics, reported by US federal agencies, confirmed the satellite observations, and showed that following the wet February and before the mid-March COVID-19 shutdown, cumulative burned area was approaching record highs across the region. With fire return intervals in the Southeastern United States as frequent as 1-2 years, COVID-19 fire impacts will contribute to an increasing backlog in necessary fire management activities, affecting biodiversity and future fire danger.

Biological Sciences↗

Data-Informed Environmental Conversion: Updating MIL-HDBK-217 and -338 with 50+ years of field data

Using over five decades of field data on electric and non-electric parts, we revisit the environmental conversion methodology described in MIL-HDBKs -217 and -338. These Reliability Engineering Handbooks’ predicted values are compared to new tables, developed using observed data. This observed data approach is also used to develop environmental conversion factors for non-electric parts, which were out of scope of MIL-HDBK-217 and -338.

reliability↗

Thermal Desktop Modeling of the 2016 CRYOTE-2 Tank Chill and Fill Tests

The storing and transfer of cryogenic propellants is an enabling technology for NASA as it moves to expand future missions into low Earth orbit (LEO) and beyond. The transfer of cryogenic propellants is of particular interest because it has never been successfully demonstrated in microgravity. Several ground tests have been conducted in past decades examining various tank chilldown and fill methods. Creating accurate models using these historical datasets is a vital step toward developing appropriate modeling tools to form pre-test predictions for eventual flight and ground tests of various novel injector concepts. The goal of this work was to create a working model in Thermal Desktop using data from the CRYOTE-2 experiments whose purpose was to demonstrate the chill and fill process in a spherical receiver tank parametrically examining the effect of injection method, receiver tank initial wall temperature and initial state, supply pressure, and mass flow rate on the NVF process. These tests were conducting using liquid nitrogen with different injectors with different injection patterns. The focus of the current work is on one particular spray nozzle. The pressure rise inside the tank, the fill level, and the change in the outside wall temperature were all tracked and compared with test data. The Thermal Desktop model was able to accurately predict each of these metrics for this nozzle within 11.0%, 22.0%, and 7.0%, respectively.

Cryogenic Tank Chilldown↗

Thermal Desktop Modeling of 2016 CRYOTE-2 Tank Chill and Fill Testing

The storing and transfer of cryogenic propellants is an enabling technology for NASA and industry as civilization moves to expand future missions into low Earth orbit and beyond. Several ground propellant transfer tests have been conducted in past decades examining various tank chilldown and fill methods. Creating accurate models using these historical datasets is a vital step toward developing appropriate modeling tools to form pre-test predictions for subsequent ground and flight propellant transfers. This paper presents model validation of Thermal Desktop using data from the 2016 CRYOTE-2 liquid nitrogen transfer experiments whose purpose was to demonstrate the chill and fill process in a spherical receiver tank. Tank pressure, fill level, and wall temperature were all modeled and compared with 8 test cases using two modeling methods, Mass Controlled, and Pressure Controlled. This test series is the hardest Thermal Desktop tank chill and fill validation case to-date, yet the model was able to accurately predict each of these metrics for the 2016 tests within 28%, 10%, 20% respectively, for pressure, fill level, and wall temperature using the Mass Controlled model, and 29%, 79%, and 12%, respectively for the Pressure Controlled model.

Cryogenic Tank Chilldown↗

Explainable deep learning for insights in El Niño and river flows

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a semi-periodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean that influences interannual variability in regional hydrology across the world through long-range dependence or teleconnections. Recent research has demonstrated the value of Deep Learning (DL) methods for improving ENSO prediction as well as Complex Networks (CN) for understanding teleconnections. However, gaps in predictive understanding of ENSO-driven river flows include the black box nature of DL, the use of simple ENSO indices to describe a complex phenomenon and translating DL-based ENSO predictions to river flow predictions. Here we show that eXplainable DL (XDL) methods, based on saliency maps, can extract interpretable predictive information contained in global SST and discover SST information regions and dependence structures relevant for river flows which, in tandem with climate network constructions, enable improved predictive understanding. Our results reveal additional information content in global SST beyond ENSO indices, develop understanding of how SSTs influence river flows, and generate improved river flow prediction, including uncertainty estimation. Observations, reanalysis data, and earth system model simulations are used to demonstrate the value of the XDL-CN based methods for future interannual and decadal scale climate projections.

SST↗

Predicting the Future of Supercomputing

The need to solve high-complexity problems using large-scale tightly coupled computing (that is, supercomputing) continues to grow. Here, in this article, we address the needs, challenges, and opportunities for supercomputing over the next decade.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Predicting Ly-alpha intensities in coronal streamers

SOHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) UVCS (Ultraviolet Coronagraph Spectrometer) will make long term observations of coronal streamers in UV lines, providing a new tool for the analysis of structures which have been known for decades but are still far from being adequately described. Work to evaluate the Lyman alpha brightness of coronal streamers is reported, adopting the streamer models obtained, via a time dependent numerical relaxation technique. This will yield understanding on the role of geometric versus physical factors in determining the streamer lyman alpha intensity and provide guidelines for UVCS observational operations. Future prospects along this line of research are summarized.

Noci, Giancarlo↗

The Mexican Drought Atlas: Tree-Ring Reconstructions of the Soil Moisture Balance During the Late Pre-Hispanic, Colonial, and Modern Eras

Mexico has suffered a long history and prehistory of severe sustained drought. Drought over Mexico is modulated by ocean-atmospheric variability in the Atlantic and Pacific, raising the possibility for long-range seasonal climate forecasting, which could help mediate the economic and social impacts of future dry spells. The instrumental record of Mexican climate is very limited before 1920, but tree-ring chronologies developed from old-growth forests in Mexico can provide an excellent proxy representation of the spatial pattern and intensity of past moisture regimes useful for the analysis of climate dynamics and climate impacts. The Mexican Drought Atlas (MXDA) has been developed from an extensive network of 252 climate sensitive tree-ring chronologies in and near Mexico. The MXDA reconstructions extend from 1400 CE-2012 and were calibrated with the instrumental summer (JJA) self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) on a 0.5deg latitude/longitude grid extending over land areas from 14 to 34degN and 75-120degW using Ensemble Point-by-Point Regression (EPPR) for the 1944-1984 period. The grid point reconstructions were validated for the period 1920-1943 against instrumental gridded scPDSI values based on the fewer weather station observations available during that interval. The MXDA provides a new spatial perspective on the historical impacts of moisture extremes over Mexico during the past 600-years, including the Aztec Drought of One Rabbit in 1454, the drought of El Ano de Hambre in 1785-1786, and the drought that preceded the Mexican Revolution of 1909-1910. The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important ocean-atmospheric forcing of moisture variability detected with the MXDA. In fact, the reconstructions suggest that the strongest central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) teleconnection to the soil moisture balance over North America may reside in northern Mexico. This ENSO signal has stronger and more time-stable correlations than computed for either the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation or Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The extended Multivariate ENSO Index is most highly correlated with reconstructed scPDSI over northern Mexico, where warm events favor moist conditions during the winter, spring, and early summer. This ENSO teleconnection to northern Mexico has been strong over the past 150 years, but it has been comparatively weak and non-stationary in the MXDA over central and southern Mexico where eastern tropical Pacific and Caribbean/tropical Atlantic SSTs seem to be more important. The ENSO teleconnection to northern Mexico is weaker in the available instrumental PDSI, but analyses based on the millennium climate simulations with the Community Earth System Model suggest that the moisture balance during the winter, spring, and early summer over northern Mexico may indeed be particularly sensitive to ENSO forcing. Nationwide drought is predicted to become more common with anthropogenic climate change, but the MXDA reconstructions indicate that intense "All Mexico" droughts have been rare over the past 600 years and their frequency does not appear to have increased substantially in recent decades.

El Nino↗

Is solid copper oxalate a spin chain or a mixture of entangled spin pairs?

Macroscopic assemblies of interacting spins give rise to a broad spectrum of behaviors determined by the spatial arrangement of the magnetic sites and the electronic interactions between them. Compounds of copper (II), in which each copper carries spin 1/2, exhibit a vast variety of physical properties. For antiferromagnetically coupled spin sites, there are two limiting scenarios: spin chains in which the spins can exhibit a long-range order or a mixture of dimers in which the spins within each pair are entangled but do not communicate with the spins from other dimers. In principle, the two types can be distinguished on the basis of experimental observations and modeling using empirically parameterized effective Hamiltonians, but in practice, ambiguity may persist for decades, as is the case for copper oxalate. Here we use high-level ab initio calculations to establish the validity of the nearest-site Heisenberg model and to predict the interaction strength between the magnetic sites. Finally, the computed magnetic susceptibility provides an unambiguous interpretation of magnetic experiments performed throughout half a century, clearly supporting the infinite spin-chain behavior of solid copper oxalate.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Building bridges between nuclear structure and reactions

The past couple of decades have seen tremendous advances in nuclear structure and reaction theory. Innovative theory frameworks for describing the nuclear many-body system, increasingly powerful computers, and opportunities for confronting theory predictions with data on unstable nuclei, have been driving the field. An important goal is to move from phenomenological ingredients in reaction calculations to predictive theories based on microscopic frameworks. We discuss ongoing efforts aimed at integrating microscopic descriptions of nuclear structure into reaction predictions for medium-mass and heavy nuclei. This contribution highlights areas where Eric Bauge, a champion for building bridges, has made important contributions by encouraging and enabling collaborations between communities with complementary expertise.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Microbiome to Function: Next Generation Eco-Microbiology Workshop Report

The Biological and Environmental Research (BER) program champions the predictive understanding of complex biological systems to enable energy and infrastructure security. To support this challenging endeavor, BER began funding Science Focus Area (SFA) projects at the national labs a decade ago in order to foster scientific advances that are more easily achieved by sustained team research. BER has recently encouraged collaboration among SFAs as a means to accelerate innovation and scientific impact. To facilitate BER’s vision, the Bioscience Division at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) proposed an annual pan-SFA workshop that would rotate among the National Labs. LANL hosted the first workshop in September 2019 to explore a common challenge—understanding how microbiomes function—and to promote collaboration opportunities among SFAs in BER’s Microbial Genomics Program. The workshop comprised overview presentations of the eight SFAs and two SFA pilots and discussions of near- and midterm opportunities to foster collaboration. These opportunities include 1) sharing isolates, 2) sharing data and storage, 3) establishing common standards and best practices, and 4) fostering scientific exchanges.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

BioGeoChemistry of Actinides (LLNL SFA OBER - SBR FY20 Program Management and Performance Report)

The focus of the BioGeoChemistry of Actinides SFA is to identify and quantify the biogeochemical processes and the underlying mechanisms that control actinide mobility in an effort to reliably predict and control the cycling and migration of actinides in the environment. The research approach includes: (1) Field Studies (Research Thrust 1) that capture actinide behavior on the timescale of decades and (2) Fundamental Laboratory Studies (Research Thrust 2) that isolate specific biogeochemical processes observed in the field. These research thrusts are underpinned by the unique capabilities and staff expertise at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), allowing the BioGeoChemistry of Actinides SFA to advance our understanding of actinide migration behavior in the environment, and serve as an international resource for environmental radiochemistry research (Figure 1). Research Thrusts 1 and 2 are guided by broad central hypotheses: Thrust 1 Hypothesis: Biogeochemical processes occurring on the timescale of years to decades lead to greater actinide recalcitrance in sediments and limit their migration in surface and groundwater. Thrust 2 Hypothesis: Long-term biogeochemical processes include mineral and surface alteration, which leads to stabilization of actinide surface associations or incorporation into mineral precipitates. Our strategic goal is to use the knowledge gained from our Science Plan to advance our understanding of the behavior of actinides, providing DOE with the scientific basis for remediation and long-term stewardship of DOE’s legacy sites and, more broadly, increasing our understanding of transport phenomena in environmental systems sciences with a particular emphasis on environmentally relevant (long-term) timescales. Although our focus is on actinide biogeochemistry, the increased focus on biogeochemistry at unique Test Bed locations associated with this SFA is providing fundamental information on redox processes and associated microbiological processes that control the cycling of redox sensitive metals under dynamic and transient biogeochemical conditions.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

BioGeoChemistry at Interfaces (LLNL SFA OBER FY21 Program Management and Performance Report)

The focus of the BioGeoChemistry at Interfaces (formerly BioGeoChemistry of Actinides) SFA is to identify and quantify the biogeochemical processes and the underlying mechanisms that control actinide mobility in an effort to reliably predict and control the cycling and migration of actinides in the environment. The research approach includes: (1) Field Studies (Research Thrust 1) that capture actinide behavior on the timescale of decades and (2) Fundamental Laboratory Studies (Research Thrust 2) that isolate specific biogeochemical processes observed in the field. These Research Thrusts are underpinned by the unique capabilities and staff expertise at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, allowing the BioGeoChemistry at Interfaces SFA to advance our understanding of actinide migration behavior in the environment, and serve as an international resource for environmental radiochemistry research (Figure 1).

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗