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DOE OSTI2024

Formation and retrieval of cell assemblies in a biologically realistic spiking neural network model of area CA3 in the mouse hippocampus

The hippocampal formation is critical for episodic memory, with area Cornu Ammonis 3 (CA3) a necessary substrate for auto-associative pattern completion. Recent theoretical and experimental evidence suggests that the formation and retrieval of cell assemblies enable these functions. Yet, how cell assemblies are formed and retrieved in a full-scale spiking neural network (SNN) of CA3 that incorporates the observed diversity of neurons and connections within this circuit is not well understood. Here, we demonstrate that a data-driven SNN model quantitatively reflecting the neuron type-specific population sizes, intrinsic electrophysiology, connectivity statistics, synaptic signaling, and long-term plasticity of the mouse CA3 is capable of robust auto-association and pattern completion via cell assemblies. Our results show that a broad range of assembly sizes could successfully and systematically retrieve patterns from heavily incomplete or corrupted cues after a limited number of presentations. Furthermore, performance was robust with respect to partial overlap of assemblies through shared cells, substantially enhancing memory capacity. These novel findings provide computational evidence that the specific biological properties of the CA3 circuit produce an effective neural substrate for associative learning in the mammalian brain.

hetero-association↗

DOE OSTI2022

Spatiotemporal Modeling of Real World Backsheets Field Survey Data: Hierarchical (Multilevel) Generalized Additive Models: Preprint

Assessing photovoltaic module backsheet durability is critical to increasing module lifetime. Lab based accelerating testing has recently failed to predict large scale failures of widely adopted polymeric materials. Field surveyed data is critical to assess the performance of component lifetime. Using a documented field survey protocol, 13 field surveys where conducted. Each measurement is encoded with it's spatial location in respect to the other modules. By combining field survey data on degradation predictors with real time satellite weather data, data-driven predictive models of backsheet degradation were trained. LOESS models were constructed to investigate the spatial dependence of measurements. It was found that micro-climatic effects like treelines, ground surface changes, and elevation changes effected the magnitude and variance of the measurements. A GAM model was created to predict the value of degradation based on measured predictors. The model includes variables on the climate of the system and the location of each measurement in the PV mounting structure. The model performed well with an adj:R2 of 0:95 for yellowness index prediction. The model was cross-validated using k-folds.

backsheet↗

DOE OSTI2022

Data-Driven Generic Turbines for Distributed Wind Modeling, Optimization, and Economic Studies

As distributed energy resources (DER) become less expensive and more popular, utilities, project developers, and customers have an increasing need to model the performance of existing and proposed DER systems. Distributed wind has been shown to have widespread economic potential but is often represented by a simplified model in - or excluded from - DER modeling tools and studies. There is often no economic imperative to extend models and studies to give full consideration to distributed wind. We present a set of data-driven generic turbines derived from 16 years of annual distributed wind market survey data. The proposed methodology can be used to derive generic turbines from separate or updated data sets. Finally, a mixed-integer linear programming approach to optimal distributed wind project sizing is used to demonstrate the generic turbine models. Combined, these models and methods can reduce barriers to considering distributed wind in modeling tools and studies.

Reiman, Andrew P.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Spatio-Temporal Modeling of Field Surveyed Backsheet Degradation

Assessing photovoltaic module backsheet durability is critical to increasing module lifetime. Lab based accelerating testing has recently failed to predict large scale failures of widely adopted polymeric materials. Field surveyed data is critical to assess the performance of component lifetime. Using a documented field survey protocol, 13 field surveys where conducted. Each measurement is encoded with it's spatial location in respect to the other modules. By combining field survey data on degradation predictors with real time satellite weather data, data-driven predictive models of backsheet degradation were trained. LOESS models were constructed to investigate the spatial dependence of measurements. It was found that micro-climatic effects like tree-lines, ground surface changes, and elevation changes effected the magnitude and variance of the measurements. A GAM model was created to predict the value of degradation based on measured predictors. The model includes variables on the climate of the system and the location of each measurement in the PV mounting structure. The model performed well with an adj.R 2 of 0.95 for yellowness index prediction. The model was cross-validated using k-folds.

backsheet↗

DOE OSTI2021

An Algebra of Machine Learners with Applications

Machine learning (ML) methods are increasingly being applied to solve complex, data-driven problems in diverse areas, by exploiting the physical laws derived from first principles such as thermal hydraulics and the abstract laws developed recently for data and computing infrastructures. These physical and abstract laws encapsulate, typically in compact algebraic forms, the critical knowledge that complements data-driven ML models. We present a unified perspective of these laws and ML methods using an abstract algebra (A;⊕,Ⓧ), wherein the performance estimation and classification tasks are characterized by the additive ⊕ operations, and the diagnosis, reconstruction, and optimization tasks are characterized by the difference Ⓧ operations. This abstraction provides ML codes and their performance characterizations that are transferable across different areas. We describe practical applications of these abstract operations using examples of throughput profile estimation tasks in data transport infrastructures, and power-level and sensor error estimation tasks in nuclear reactor systems.

Rao, Nageswara↗

DOE OSTI2021

Deep Reinforcement Learning Enabled Physical-Model-Free Two-Timescale Voltage Control Method for Active Distribution Systems

Active distribution networks are being challenged by frequent and rapid voltage violations due to renewable energy integration. Conventional model-based voltage control methods rely on accurate parameters of the distribution networks, which are difficult to achieve in practice. This paper proposes a novel physical-model-free two-timescale voltage control framework for active distribution systems. To achieve fast control of PV inverters, the whole network is first partitioned into several subnetworks using voltage-reactive power sensitivity. Then, the scheduling of PV inverters in the multiple sub-networks is formulated as Markov games and solved by a multi-agent soft actor-critic (MASAC) algorithm, where each subnetwork is modeled as an intelligent agent. All agents are trained in a centralized manner to learn a coordinated strategy while being executed based on only local information for fast response. For the slower time-scale control, OLTCs and switched capacitors are coordinated by a single agent-based SAC algorithm using the global information with considering control behaviors of the inverters. Particularly, the two-level agents are trained concurrently with information exchange according to the reward signal calculated from the data-driven surrogate model. Comparative tests with different benchmark methods on IEEE 33-and 123-bus systems and 342-node low voltage distribution system demonstrate that the proposed method can effectively mitigate the fast voltage violations and achieve systematical coordination of different voltage regulation assets without the knowledge of accurate system model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Predictive Skill of Deep Learning Models Trained on Limited Sequence Data

In this report we investigate the utility of one-dimensional convolutional neural network (CNN) models in epidemiological forecasting. Deep learning models, especially variants of recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have been studied for influenza forecasting, and have achieved higher forecasting skill compared to conventional models such as ARIMA models. In this study, we adapt two neural networks that employ one-dimensional temporal convolutional layers as a primary building block temporal convolutional networks and simple neural attentive meta-learner for epidemiological forecasting and test them with influenza data from the US collected over 2010-2019. We find that epidemiological forecasting with CNNs is feasible, and their forecasting skill is comparable to, and at times, superior to, RNNs. Thus CNNs and RNNs bring the power of nonlinear transformations to purely data-driven epidemiological models, a capability that heretofore has been limited to more elaborate mechanistic/compartmental disease models.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

The predictive skill of convolutional neural networks models for disease forecasting

In this paper we investigate the utility of one-dimensional convolutional neural network (CNN) models in epidemiological forecasting. Deep learning models, in particular variants of recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have been studied for ILI (Influenza-Like Illness) forecasting, and have achieved a higher forecasting skill compared to conventional models such as ARIMA. In this study, we adapt two neural networks that employ one-dimensional temporal convolutional layers as a primary building block—temporal convolutional networks and simple neural attentive meta-learners—for epidemiological forecasting. We then test them with influenza data from the US collected over 2010-2019. We find that epidemiological forecasting with CNNs is feasible, and their forecasting skill is comparable to, and at times, superior to, plain RNNs. Thus CNNs and RNNs bring the power of nonlinear transformations to purely data-driven epidemiological models, a capability that heretofore has been limited to more elaborate mechanistic/compartmental disease models.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Virtual sensing of wind turbine hub loads and drivetrain fatigue damage, Virtuelle Sensoren für die Messung von Hauptwellenlasten und Ermüdungsschäden im Antriebstrang von Windenergieanlagen

Abstract: This paper presents a Digital Twin for virtual sensing of wind turbine aerodynamic hub loads, as well as monitoring the accumulated fatigue damage and remaining useful life in drivetrain bearings based on measurements of the Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) and the drivetrain condition monitoring system (CMS). The aerodynamic load estimation is realized with data-driven regression models, while the estimation of local bearing loads and damage is conducted with physics-based, analytical models. Field measurements of the DOE 1.5 research turbine are used for model training and validation. The results show low errors of 6.4% and 1.1% in the predicted damage at the main and the generator side high-speed bearing respectively. Zusammenfassung: In diesem Aufsatz wird ein digitaler Zwilling für Windenergieanlagen vorgestellt, welcher die virtuelle Erfassung der Hauptwellenlasten und die Zustandsüberwachung von Ermüdungschäden und der verbleibende Nutzungsdauer der Antriebsstranglager ermöglicht. Der digital Zwilling nutzt Messdaten des Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) Systems und des Zustandsüberwachungssystems des Antriebsstranges (CMS). Die Berechnung der Hauptwellenlasten ist mit datenbasierten Regressionsmodellen umgesetzt, während die Berechnung der Lagerkräfte und der Ermüdungsschaden mit physikbasierten Modelle durchgeführt wird. Für die Modellentwicklung und -validierung werden Feldmessdaten der DOE 1.5MW Turbine eingesetzt. Die Abweichungen in den Ermüdungsschäden am Hauptwellenlager und am Generatorwellenlager betragen lediglich 6,4% beziehungsweise 1,1%.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Physics-Informed Active Learning With Simultaneous Weak-Form Latent Space Dynamics Identification

The parametric greedy latent space dynamics identification (gLaSDI) framework has demonstrated promising potential for accurate and efficient modeling of high-dimensional nonlinear physical systems. However, it remains challenging to handle noisy data. Here, to enhance robustness against noise, we incorporate the weak-form estimation of nonlinear dynamics (WENDy) into gLaSDI. In the proposed weak-form gLaSDI (WgLaSDI) framework, an autoencoder and WENDy are trained simultaneously to discover intrinsic nonlinear latent-space dynamics of high-dimensional data. Compared with the standard sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (SINDy) employed in gLaSDI, WENDy enables variance reduction and robust latent space discovery, therefore leading to more accurate and efficient reduced-order modeling. Furthermore, the greedy physics-informed active learning in WgLaSDI enables adaptive sampling of optimal training data on the fly for enhanced modeling accuracy. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is demonstrated by modeling various nonlinear dynamical problems, including viscous and inviscid Burgers' equations, time-dependent radial advection, and the Vlasov equation for plasma physics. With data that contains 5%–10% Gaussian white noise, WgLaSDI outperforms gLaSDI by orders of magnitude, achieving 1%–7% relative errors. Compared with the high-fidelity models, WgLaSDI achieves 121 to 1779x speed-up.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

A filter-dependent granular temperature model from large-scale CFD-DEM data

The computational study of strongly-coupled, gas–solid flows at scales relevant to most environmental and engineering applications requires the use of ‘coarse-grained’ methodologies such as the two-fluid model, particle-in-cell approach or the multiphase Reynolds Averaged Navier–Stokes equations. While these strategies enable computations at desirable length- and time-scales, they rely heavily on models to capture important flow physics that occur at scales smaller than the mesh. To date, the models that do exist are based on a limited set of flow conditions, such as very dilute particle phase. To this end, we leverage a large-scale repository of CFD-DEM data to develop filter-size dependent models for the mean variance in particle volume fraction, a quantity commonly used to assess the degree of clustering, and the granular temperature, a key quantity for accurately predicting gas–solid flows. In conclusion, because of its filter-size dependence, the granular temperature model can be directly translated to coarse-grained approaches and tied directly to grid size.

AMReX↗

DOE OSTI2022

Network Models of Active Degradation Mechanisms and Pathways for Service Life Prediction of Indoor and Outdoor PV Modules

ct: PV service lifetime prediction (SLP) enables accurate calculation of levelized cost of energy (LCOE), which is crucial to rationalizing PV investment and installation. However, SLP is challeging since PV reliability in the field is affected by many combined factors, including various environmental stresses and module quality. In order to map out the active degradation mechanisms and pathways that best resemble real world conditions, we introduce the framework of a study protocol and use network models fitted to data, to enable analysis and SLP of complex PV systems with multiple active degradation mechanisms. The study protocol is the experimental design, including module variants and different exposure conditions, selection of evaluation methods, time-series data acquisition and training of network models to these data. We present SLP of minimodules in the lab and PV systems in the field. For lab SLP, minimodules with 8 variants based on manufacturer, architecture, and encapsulation were prepared and aged in modified damp heat with or without full spectrum light exposure. Stepwise I-V and Suns-Voc data acquisition tracks changes in electrical properties including Rs,IV, Isc,IV, Vmp,PIV providing insights into power loss of minimodules. Network structural equation modeling (netSEM) was utilized to construct degradation pathway models that identify active degradation mechanisms and predict power loss over time. For field SLP, datastreams of Pmp values and I-V curve datastreams of two types of modules installed in three distinctly different Köppen-Geiger climate zones for 9 years were acquired. With power loss modes corresponding to uniform current loss (ΔPIsc), recombination (ΔPVoc), series resistance (ΔPRs), and current mismatch (ΔPImis) determined, the performance loss rates (PLR) were determined using PVplr. We show how to establish a study protocol framework to ensure appropriate parametric variations and valid data collection from the variants of your complex systems. Then the data-driven netSEM model fitting provides a comprehensive mapping of multiple active degradation mechanisms, and accurate service life prediction.

network model, degradation, photovoltaic, solar↗

DOE OSTI2020

Development of Prognostic Models Using Plant Asset Data

The recent growth of machine learning and artificial intelligence technologies provides opportunities for leveraging data-driven algorithms to address the problems of diagnostics and prognostics in the nuclear power industry. The use of machine learning and other statistical methods as prognostic models is of particular interest in the nuclear industry to accurately predict future equipment or plant state given a set of measurements. Such predictive capability will enable predictive assessment of component condition and remaining life and allow for condition-based predictive maintenance. The resulting optimization of maintenance scheduling and reduction in unnecessary maintenance activities will lower overall maintenance costs and improve the economics of nuclear power. This report discusses the various aspects of data processing and model development that are likely to influence the performance of prognostic models. Data from a boiling-water reactor was used to evaluate several prognostic models to identify key considerations for developing such models to predict data-driven plant state and equipment degradation condition. Preliminary results indicate the need for data sets that are relevant to the problem at hand and contain signatures that may be correlated to the prediction problem. Assuming such data exist, development of prognostic models using data-driven methods requires an understanding of the various sources of influence on the prediction accuracy (such as the model architecture, data preprocessing approaches, and potentially external factors influencing the equipment or plant system under assessment). Ongoing research is evaluating these factors in greater detail and examining techniques for calculating prediction uncertainty bounds.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning-based ethylene concentration estimation, real-time optimization and feedback control of an experimental electrochemical reactor

With the increase in electricity supply from clean energy sources, electrochemical reduction of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) has received increasing attention as an alternative source of carbon-based fuels. As CO 2 reduction is becoming a stronger alternative for the clean production of chemicals, the need to model, optimize and control the electrochemical reduction of the CO 2 process becomes inevitable. However, on one hand, a first-principles model to represent the electrochemical CO 2 reduction has not been fully developed yet because of the complexity of its reaction mechanism, which makes it challenging to define a precise state-space model for the control system. On the other hand, the unavailability of efficient concentration measurement sensors continues to challenge our ability to develop feedback control systems. Gas chromatography (GC) is the most common equipment for monitoring the gas product composition, but it requires a period of time to analyze the sample, which means that GC can provide only delayed measurements during the operation. Moreover, the electrochemical CO 2 reduction process is catalyzed by a fast-deactivating copper catalyst and undergoes a selectivity shift from the product-of-interest at the later stages of experiments, which can pose a challenge for conventional control methods. To this end, machine learning (ML) techniques provide a potential approach to overcome those difficulties due to their demonstrated ability to capture the dynamic behavior of a chemical process from data. Motivated by the above considerations, we propose a machine learning-based modeling methodology that integrates support vector regression and first-principles modeling to capture the dynamic behavior of an experimental electrochemical reactor; this model, together with limited gas chromatography measurements, is employed to predict the evolution of gas-phase ethylene concentration. The model prediction is directly used in a proportional-integral (PI) controller that manipulates the applied potential to regulate the gas-phase ethylene concentration at energy-optimal set-point values computed by a real-time process optimizer (RTO). Specifically, the RTO calculates the operation set-point by solving an optimization problem to maximize the economic benefit of the reactor. Finally, suitable compensation methods are introduced to further account for the experimental uncertainties and handle catalyst deactivation. The proposed modeling, optimization, and control approaches are the first demonstration of active control for a CO 2 electrolyzer and contribute to the automation and scale-up efforts for electrified manufacturing of fuels and chemicals starting from CO 2 .

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Chapter 4 - Recent Advances in Identification of Differential Equations from Noisy Data: IDENT Review

Differential equations and numerical methods are extensively used to model various real-world phenomena in science and engineering. With modern developments, we aim to find the underlying differential equation from a single observation of time-dependent data. If we assume that the differential equation is a linear combination of various linear and nonlinear differential terms, then the identification problem can be formulated as solving a linear system. The goal then reduces to finding the optimal coefficient vector that best represents the time derivative of the given data. We review some recent works on the identification of differential equations. We find some common themes for the improved accuracy: (i) The formulation of linear system with proper denoising is important, (ii) how to utilize sparsity and model selection to find the correct coefficient support needs careful attention, and (iii) there are ways to improve the coefficient recovery. We present an overview and analysis of recent developments on the topic.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Tencoder: tensor-product encoder-decoder architecture for predicting solutions of PDEs with variable boundary data

It is widely hoped that artificial intelligence will boost data-driven surrogate models in science and engineering. However, fundamental spatial aspects of AI surrogate models remain under-studied. We investigate the ability of neural-network surrogate models to predict solutions to PDEs under variable boundary values. We do not wish to retrain the model when the boundary values change but to make them inputs to the model and infer the solution of the PDE under those boundary conditions. Such a capability is essential to making AI-based surrogate models practically useful. While simple feedforward networks are used for one-dimensional (1D) Poisson equation, an encoder-decoder architecture with a tensor-product layer is developed for the two-dimensional Poisson equation posed on a rectangular domain. We show that it is indeed possible to infer solutions to PDEs from variable boundary data using neural networks in this relatively simple setting, and point to future directions.

Kashi, Aditya↗

DOE OSTI2023

A TCN-Based Hybrid Forecasting Framework for Hours-Ahead Utility-Scale PV Forecasting

This paper presents a Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) based hybrid PV forecasting framework for enhancing hours-ahead utility-scale PV forecasting. The hybrid framework consists of two forecasting models: a physics-based trend forecasting (TF) model and a data-driven fluctuation forecasting (FF) model. Three TCNs are integrated in the framework for: i) blending the inputs from different Numerical Weather Prediction sources for the TF model to achieve superior performance on forecasting hourly PV profiles, ii) capturing spatial-temporal correlations between detector sites and the target site in the FF model to achieve more accurate forecast of intra- hour PV power drops, and iii) reconciling TF and FF results to obtain coherent hours-ahead PV forecast with both hourly trends and intra-hour fluctuations well preserved. To automatically identify the most contributive neighboring sites for forming a detector network, a scenario-based correlation analysis method is developed, which significantly improves the capability of the FF model on capturing large power fluctuations caused by cloud movements. Here, the framework is developed, tested, and validated using actual PV data collected from 95 PV farms in North Carolina. Simulation results show that the performance of 6 hours ahead PV power forecasting is improved by 20% - 30% compared with state-of-the-art methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Diagnosing nuclear power plant pipe wall thinning due to flow accelerated corrosion using a passive, thermal non-destructive evaluation method: Feasibility assessment via numerical experiments

Flow accelerated corrosion (FAC) in nuclear power plant pipes is one of the leading causes of accidents, fatalities, damage and outages. Current FAC identification methods employ expensive sensing technology and are “active” methods, where the response of the piping system to an externally-generated thermal, mechanical or optical excitation must be measured. As a result, these techniques require a disruptive and time-consuming setup. Here we propose a method that utilizes pipe surface temperature measurements to passively monitor for FAC-induced pipe wall thinning without the need for expensive equipment or post-installation setup time. This diagnostic method utilizes a simulation data-driven diagnostic model to estimate the amount of thickness reduction in a pipe based on changes in measured steady-state pipe temperatures. In order to reduce the computational burden of generating large, simulation-based datasets, the behavior of the insulation of the pipe was modeled using a suitably calibrated heat transfer boundary parameter. Additionally, global sensitivity analysis was performed to determine system parameter(s), such as the temperature of water flowing inside the pipe, which significantly affect the steady state pipe wall temperature and could cause errors in diagnosis. Two diagnostic models, one using only the change in steady-state temperature as an indicator for FAC-induced pipe wall thinning and the other using water temperature as an additional diagnostic model input were evaluated for their ability to estimate thickness reductions in a pipe using simulated pipe wall temperature data. For the numerical experiments conducted in this work, both models estimated wall thickness with errors within 0.5 mm, indicating that the proposed technique can potentially be used as a low-cost, first-pass method for FAC monitoring.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗