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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 667 records · Page 37
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Regional Economic Impacts of the Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Transition

To help mitigate greenhouse gas (GHGs) generation from burning fossil fuels, many state and local governments are requiring utilities to dramatically increase the share of electricity generated from renewable sources. The City of Los Angeles has set a target of 100% renewable energy by 2045 and has formulated a plan that considers nine potential alternative scenarios that differ by technology, location, and timing. Each scenario has a unique set of local investments, operating and maintenance (O&M) costs, and concomitant rate structures. In this study we develop and apply a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model built specifically for LA to estimate and compare the economic impacts for each of the scenarios over time relative to a reference case. We find differences in economic impacts across scenarios, depending on the level and timing of investment and O&M expenditures, as well as differences in the relative rate changes across scenarios. Results show that employment and economic output are positively correlated with greater capital and O&M spending, while higher electricity rates can dampen economic activity. Several scenarios generate positive economic impacts relative to the reference case, showing that the transition need not have harmful economic impacts, and all scenarios generate a number of other positive co-benefits, such as reduced damage to health from the reduction of ordinary air pollutants. The net employment impacts from 2026 to 2045 across the scenarios range from a low of 3,600 job-year losses annually to 4,700 job-year gains, both around only 0.1% of the baseline average annual employment in the city over that period. The analysis also indicates that lower-income households are relatively more affected than others by the scenarios. Overall, even in the most negatively impactful case, the economic output and employment effects are quite small when taken in the context of the overall size of the regional economy and the large reduction in GHGs.

economic impact modeling↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nebulized delivery of a broadly neutralizing SARS-CoV-2 RBD-specific nanobody prevents clinical, virological, and pathological disease in a Syrian hamster model of COVID-19

There remains an unmet need for globally deployable, low-cost therapeutics for the ongoing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic. Previously, we reported on the isolation and in vitro characterization of a potent single-domain nanobody, NIH-CoVnb-112, specific for the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of SARS-CoV-2. Here, we report on the molecular basis for the observed broad in vitro neutralization capability of NIH-CoVnb-112 against variant SARS-CoV-2 pseudoviruses. The structure of NIH-CoVnb-112 bound to SARS-CoV-2 RBD reveals a large contact surface area overlapping the angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) binding site, which is largely unencumbered by the common RBD mutations. In an in vivo pilot study, we demonstrate effective reductions in weight loss, viral burden, and lung pathology in a Syrian hamster model of COVID-19 following nebulized delivery of NIH-CoVnb-112. These findings support the further development of NIH-CoVnb-112 as a potential adjunct preventative therapeutic for the treatment of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integrated reference cavity with dual-mode optical thermometry for frequency correction

Photonic integrated resonators have advantages over traditional benchtop cavities in terms of size, weight, and cost with the potential to enable applications that require spectrally pure light. However, integrated resonators suffer from temperature-dependent frequency variations and are sensitive to external environmental perturbations, which hinders their usage in precision frequency applications. One solution is to use interrogation of the cavity temperature through dual-mode optical thermometry (DMOT) by measuring the shift of the resonance frequency difference between two polarization or optical frequency modes. Yet this approach has only been demonstrated in bulk-optic whispering gallery mode and fiber resonators. In this paper, we implement dual-mode optical thermometry in an ultra-high Q integrated silicon nitride resonator. A dual-mode resonance frequency difference temperature sensitivity of 188 ± <#comment/> 15 M H z / K is measured. We demonstrate feedforward DMOT frequency correction that, under an applied external temperature ramp, is able to reduce the optical frequency change to 0.31 kHz/s as compared to an uncorrected 10.03 kHz/s, a factor of 30 × <#comment/> reduction. These results show promise for on-chip frequency correction solutions for quantum, metrology, atomic, and coherent optical communications applications.

Zhao, Qiancheng (ORCID:0000000206968667)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Why Regional and Long-Haul Trucks are Primed for Electrification Now

Zero emission freight trucks are needed to both improve public health and reduce global greenhouse gas emissions but at the same time are generally believed to be uneconomical. However, recent dramatic declines in battery prices and improvement in their energy density have created opportunities for battery-electric trucking today that were seldom anticipated just a few years ago. At the current global average battery pack price of $135 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) (realizable when procured at scale), a Class 8 electric truck with 375-mile range and operated 300 miles per day when compared to a diesel truck offers about 13% lower total cost of ownership (TCO) per mile, about 3-year payback and net present savings of about US $200,000 over a 15-year lifetime. This is achieved with only a 3% reduction in payload capacity. Even this small penalty can be reversed cost-effectively through light-weighting, in any case, only matters for a small fraction of trucks which regularly utilize their maximum payload. Electric trucks appear poised to also meet the performance demands for a large share of regional and long-haul trucking today. The estimated average distance traveled between 30- minute driver breaks is 150 miles and 190 miles for regional-haul and long-haul trucks respectively in the US. Thirty minutes of charging using 500 kW or mega-Watt scale fastchargers would add sufficient range without impairing operations and economics of freight movement. However, as with almost any clean technology, higher upfront capital costs of both vehicles and charging infrastructure are major barriers when electric trucking is in its infancy. Without strong policy support, coordinated investments in both vehicle manufacturing and fuel infrastructure will not be forthcoming on the scale needed to harness the true potential of battery electric trucks.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reductive amination cascades in cell‐free and resting whole cell formats for valorization of lignin deconstruction products

Abstract The selective introduction of amine groups within deconstruction products of lignin could provide an avenue for valorizing waste biomass while achieving a green synthesis of industrially relevant building blocks from sustainable sources. Here, we built and characterized enzyme cascades that create aldehydes and subsequently primary amines from diverse lignin‐derived carboxylic acids using a carboxylic acid reductase (CAR) and an ω‐transaminase (TA). Unlike previous studies that have paired CAR and TA enzymes, here we examine multiple homologs of each of these enzymes and a broader set of candidate substrates. In addition, we compare the performance of these systems in cell‐free and resting whole‐cell biocatalysis formats using the conversion of vanillate to vanillyl amine as model chemistry. We also demonstrate that resting whole cells can be recycled for multiple batch reactions. We used the knowledge gained from this study to produce several amines from carboxylic acid precursors using one‐pot biocatalytic reactions, several of which we report for the first time. These results expand our knowledge of these industrially relevant enzyme families to new substrates and contexts for environmentally friendly and potentially low‐cost synthesis of diverse aryl aldehydes and amines.

Biotechnology & Applied Microbiology↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating the Grid Impact of Oregon Offshore Wind

This analysis used high resolution offshore wind data and a detailed production cost model of the Western Interconnection to explore the value and operational impact of integrating offshore wind along Oregon's coastline. Leveraging local technical stakeholder expertise and input, we determined a set of scenarios to explore. These scenarios varied offshore wind penetrations and explored the differences of integrating offshore wind in the current grid and a potential future grid. This allowed us to determine how changes to the rest of the system and increasing penetrations of offshore wind affected our findings. We identified a number of key findings from the analysis, including that 2.6 GW of nameplate capacity offshore wind could be integrated into the Oregon power system with minimal curtailment due to transmission congestion or other factors. The range of system value provided by offshore wind ranges between $\$$65/MWh and $\$$85/MWh across the various scenarios considered. We also examined the influence offshore wind had on the trans-Cascade power flow, where we determined a strong correlation between offshore wind generation and reduction in flow across the Cascades. Finally, we also determined that offshore wind could serve between 84 - 93% of Coastal Oregon loads depending on the scenario.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Production of Fischer-Tropsch Synfuels at Nuclear Plants

A case study analysis was performed to evaluate nuclear-powered synthetic fuel production in the midwestern United States (U.S.). A Fischer-Tropsch (FT) fuel synthesis plant design was used as the basis for the analysis. The FT plant design was configured to produce a product slate consisting of diesel fuel, jet fuel, and motor gasoline blend stocks from carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and hydrogen (H 2 ) feedstocks. The CO 2 feedstock for the FT plant was assumed to be sourced from biorefineries in the region around a Midwest light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plant (NPP). The analysis specifies that power from the LWR is used to produce H 2 via high-temperature steam electrolysis and to operate the FT synfuel production plant. Capital costs were estimated for the FT plant while capital costs for the electrolysis plant were based on previous Idaho National Laboratory (INL) studies. In addition to labor and maintenance costs for the FT and electrolysis plants, operating costs also include the costs for CO 2 feedstock transport. An analysis was performed to determine the cost of transporting CO 2 from the distributed biorefinery sources to the centralized fuel synthesis plant as a function of the synfuel plant capacity and corresponding CO 2 demand. The primary revenue streams are associated with sales of the synthetic fuel products. The synthetic fuel products will likely follow the same market trends as the conventional fuel products. The synfuel price data was thus based on projections made by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) 2021 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) for conventional fuel products minus federal and state taxes, as well as marketing and distribution costs. The economic analysis also considered cases that included and excluded revenues from the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) clean hydrogen production tax credit (PTC) of $\$ $3.00/kg for the first ten years of operation. The economic analysis calculated the net present value (NPV) for cases involving steady-state synfuel production for comparison with the NPV for a business-as-usual case in which NPP continues to sell only electric power to the grid. A synfuel production “Reference Case” was considered in addition to sensitivity cases in which the plant capacity, electricity price, and synthetic fuel product prices were perturbed. The synfuel production Reference Case considered a scenario in which the electrolysis and synfuel plants utilized a combined electrical load of 1000 megawatt electrical (MWe) from the LWR with the balance of the LWR power output being sold to the electric grid. The economic analysis suggests that the synfuel production Reference Case evaluated in this analysis would lead to considerable economic potential for near-term deployment of a nuclear-based synfuel production plant. Specifically, the economic analysis suggests that the deployment of a 1000 megawatt (MW) nuclear-powered synfuel plant could result in a NPV increase of approximately $\$ $1.7 billion for a case with no clean synfuel price premium relative to conventional petroleum fuels when accounting for the additional revenues from the 2022 IRA clean hydrogen PTCs of $\$ $3/kg. Sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the effect of perturbation of selected model input parameters on the NPV for the synfuel production Reference Case. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the plant capacity has the largest impact on the differential NPV, with a smaller synfuel production capacity resulting in a decrease in revenue when a larger fraction of the power from the NPP is sold to the grid and a smaller fraction of the power is used to produce synthetic fuel products. The synfuel product pricing has the next largest impact on the differential NPV, with lower synfuel prices resulting in decreased NPV from decreased synfuel sales revenue while higher synfuel prices result in increased NPV from increased synfuel sales revenue. Electricity pricing has a smaller effect on the NPV than the fuel sales price since, in the Reference Case, most of the energy from the NPP is used for synfuel production and a smaller amount of the system revenues are associated with electrical power sales. However, the electricity price sensitivity does indicate that the Synfuel Integrated Energy System (IES) would have a greater NPV than the business-as-usual case (e.g., grid power sales only) when electricity market prices are low, suggesting that synfuel production could provide a strategy for decreasing the economic risks to NPPs posed by a loss of revenues attributed to falling electricity market prices.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning-guided design, synthesis, and characterization of atomically dispersed electrocatalysts

The recent integration of machine learning into materials design has revolutionized the understanding of structure–property relationships and optimization of material properties beyond the trial-and-error paradigm. On one hand, machine learning has significantly accelerated the development of atomically dispersed metal-nitrogen-carbon (M-N-C) electrocatalysts, which traditionally heavily relied on heuristic approaches. On the other hand, the primary challenge of leveraging machine learning to expedite M-N-C materials discovery lies in the cost associated with data collection. Here, we review recent machine learning integration strategies for M-N-C catalyst development, including discussions on the typical algorithms such as symbolic regression and convolutional neural networks employed for the theoretical design, synthesis optimization via active learning, and advanced microscopy characterization. Subsequently, we provide our perspective on potential near-future directions for furthering machine learning-assisted development of new M-N-C catalysts and elucidating the complex physicochemical mechanisms governing the selectivity, activity, and durability in this class of materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

An Analysis of Energy Needs and Seawater Extraction Approaches for the Integration of Primary Magnesium Production with Nuclear Power

The cost of primary magnesium production is highly dominated by the energy required to produce the metal. This, along with the current geographical concentration of its production, makes the magnesium price vulnerable as energy-production paradigms begin to rapidly change. In this work, four nuclear-integration pathways for the efficient supply of heat and electricity to magnesium production from a nuclear power plant are considered. A production route using electrified metallothermic reduction is compared to a nuclear-heat-integrated electrolytic pathway. It is shown that the latter can achieve significantly lower primary energy consumption, 261 MJ/kg Mg compared with 416 MJ/kg Mg. The electrolytic pathway can also reduce emissions down to around 2.1 kgCO2/kg Mg, compared to around 34 kgCO2/kg Mg in the Pidgeon process. Beyond energy and emissions, the four pathways considered are also compared to their ability to reduce locational dependence of the production plant and reduce process complexity. This work also highlights future advances in magnesium production with a potential scheme for the efficient extraction of magnesium from seawater with coproduction of desalinated water and the potential of demand-side response from magnesium electrolysis. This is the first work to consider the full integration of primary magnesium production using nuclear cogeneration, and it is hoped the study paves the way for the analysis of economic nuclear integration within metal extraction and manufacturing.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Medium-duty Urban Range Extended Connected Powertrain (Final Scientific Technical Report)

The project goal is to develop and demonstrate a Class 4 delivery vehicle that reduces fuel consumption by 50% or more when compared to an equivalent vehicle with a conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) powertrain driven on a comparable duty cycle. This shall be achieved using a plug-in hybrid electric (PHEV) configuration that optimizes the efficiency of the ICE. The proposed solution aims to be commercially viable for fleets to procure the system without additional incentives. To accomplish this, commercialized light-duty vehicle electric drive components shall be used. A PHEV configuration for Class 4 MD/HD vocational vehicles using commercialized light-duty vehicle electric drive components will require the development of a new topology for the hybrid powertrain applicable to medium-duty vehicles. Prior research indicates that an identified novel power split device could provide a fuel economy improvement potential of up to 51%. Utilizing an advanced battery management algorithm that will allow operation closer to the battery limits, the project will minimize battery capacity to achieve the desired performance results while maintaining the cost target for high commercialization. The solution must be cost effective to purchase and integrate into a Class 4 delivery vehicle, deliver the intended fuel economy improvement, and perform as well, or better, than the current conventional ICE powertrain. MD/HD vehicles typically require higher power, which is one factor that results in high costs for the powerful electric machines typical in larger HEV/PHEV systems. A key element in the project is the use of commercially available Bosch electric drive components (e.g., motors, batteries, and power electronics) from the larger passenger vehicle segment. This leverages the economies of scale to decrease cost and improve reliability beyond current purpose-built low-volume commercial vehicle components. These innovations will result in a game-changing PHEV system that meets DOE’s 50% fuel consumption reduction target, grants the vehicle an uncompromised driving range, and achieves the cost point for widespread adoption.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Coupling Amorphization and Compositional Optimization of Ternary Metal Phosphides toward High-Performance Electrocatalytic Hydrogen Production

Amorphous materials, with abundant active sites and unique electronic configurations, have the potential to outperform their crystalline counterparts in high-performance catalysis for clean energy. However, their synthesis and compositional optimization remain underexplored due to the strict conditions required for their formation. Here, in this study, we report the synthesis of ternary platinum-nickel-phosphorus (PtNiP) amorphous nanoparticles (ANPs) within milliseconds by flash Joule heating, which features ultrafast cooling that enables the vitrification of metal precursors. Through compositional optimization, the Gibbs free energy of hydrogen adsorption for Pt 4 Ni 4 P 1 ANPs is optimized at 0.02 eV, an almost ideal value, even surpassing that of the benchmark metallic platinum catalyst. As a result, the PtNiP ANPs exhibited superior activity in electrocatalytic hydrogen evolution in acid electrolyte (η 10 ∼ 14 mV, Tafel slope ∼ 18 mV dec –1 , and mass activity 5× higher than state-of-the-art Pt/C). Life-cycle assessment and technoeconomic analysis suggest that, compared to existing processes, our approach enables notable reductions in greenhouse gas emission, energy consumption, and production cost for practical electrolyzer catalyst manufacturing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dynamic Line Rating Models and Their Potential for a Cost‐Effective Transition to Carbon‐Neutral Power Systems

Most transmission system operators (TSOs) currently use seasonally steady-state models considering limiting weather conditions that serve as reference to compute the transmission capacity of overhead power lines. The use of dynamic line rating (DLR) models can avoid the construction of new lines, market splitting, false congestions, and the degradation of lines in a cost-effective way. DLR can also be used in the long run in grid extension and new power capacity planning. In the short run, it should be used to help operate power systems with congested lines. The operation of the power systems is planned to have the market trading into account; thus, it computes transactions hours ahead of real-time operation, using power flow forecasts affected by large errors. In the near future, within a “smart grid” environment, in real-time operation conditions, TSOs should be able to rapidly compute the capacity rating of overhead lines using DLR models and the most reliable weather information, forecasts, and line measurements, avoiding the current steady-state approach that, in many circumstances, assumes ampacities above the thermal limits of the lines. Here, this work presents a review of the line rating methodologies in several European countries and the United States. Furthermore, it presents the results of pilot projects and studies considering the application of DLR in overhead power lines, obtaining significant reductions in the congestion of internal networks and cross-border transmission lines.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Thermal conductivity evaluation of ion irradiated Si 3 N 4 and ZrN ceramics using spatial domain thermoreflectance

Nitride ceramics have been investigated for different applications in the nuclear industry, such as space nuclear power, fusion reactor diagnostics and plasma heating, inert matrix fuels, and accident tolerant fuels. Although thermal conductivity remains one of the most important properties to track following irradiation, traditional techniques such as laser flash and xenon flash are limited to bulk sample characterization, which requires lengthy and cost-consuming neutron irradiation. This work used spatial domain thermoreflectance (SDTR) for the micrometer-scale measurement of thermal conductivity in 15 MeV Ni ion-irradiated silicon nitride and zirconium nitride from 1 to 50 dpa and 300 to 700 °C. Here, the SDTR-measured unirradiated thermal conductivity was found to be consistent with the published data on bulk samples. Electrically conductive ZrN exhibits modest reduction after irradiation which is minimal at the highest irradiation temperatures. In electrically insulating Si 3 N 4 , the reduction is more significant and unlike ZrN, the reduction remains significant even at a higher irradiation temperature. The thermal resistance evolution following irradiation was compared with lattice swelling, which was determined using grazing incidence x-ray diffraction, and radiation-induced defects were observed using transmission electron microscopy. A saturation value was observed between 15 and 50 dpa for thermal conductivity degradation in both nitride ceramics and a direct correlation with high-temperature defect recombination was observed, as well as the potential presence of additional carrier scattering mechanisms.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Value of Nuclear Energy to the Reliability of the North American Power System: Results for Western and Eastern Interconnections

This report documents the fulfillment of a milestone for the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program: completing a baseline study of regional impact of nuclear power plants and hydrogen production in maintaining grid services and power quality. Models have been comprehensively demonstrated for the Western Interconnection, or Western Electric Coordinating Council area, and in the Eastern Interconnection for scenarios representative of past extreme events (e.g., drought and heat waves). Understanding the impact on the reliability of the bulk electric system of any reduction in generation capacity from nuclear power, for any reason, is the motivation of this work. Factors that might lead to the premature or unplanned closure of nuclear plants, extended outages, or repurposing of nuclear power include: • Aging infrastructure: Many nuclear power plants in the U.S. are nearing the end of their designed operating lives. Upgrading aging infrastructure can be expensive, and some utilities may choose to retire plants rather than invest in costly upgrades. • Low wholesale electricity prices: The deregulation of the electricity market in many states has led to increased competition and driven down wholesale electricity prices, causing nuclear power operators to seek other revenue sources for their heat and power such as clean hydrogen production. • Renewables growth: The rapid growth of renewable energy sources like solar and wind power is posing a challenge to traditional generation sources like nuclear. While many see renewables as a key part of the clean energy transition, their intermittent nature requires additional grid solutions for reliable power supply. • The potential for regulatory decisions to be in conflict: In its 2021 rulemaking, EPA rule (86 FR 880), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) set a compliance date for the ban on processing and distribution in commerce of Decabromodiphenyl Ether (DecaBDE). Since DecaBDE is in many components, particularly wiring, of nuclear power plants which are deemed safety-related or important to safety, three plants would not have been able to restart after their 2023 spring outages, and numerous others would have faced issues in the near future. Fortunately, in this case, the EPA provided relief to the nuclear energy industry. The report provides a summary of the significant role nuclear energy plays in the United States’ power generation mix, supplying around 20% of the nation’s electricity generation, spread across 28 U.S. states. Nuclear power is reliable, mostly unaffected by weather and seasonal changes, and provides a consistent source of baseload power. In terms of capacity, nuclear power plants account for as much as 26% of balancing area power generation capacity. Nuclear power also provides a substantial contribution (e.g., 10% of the inertia in the Eastern Interconnection) of the synchronous spinning mass/inertia that buffers the rate at which frequency changes when a load and generation imbalance occurs (e.g., a large plant trips or a load is suddenly shed due to a transmission outage). This contribution is critical for maintaining grid stability during sudden changes in load or generation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Cost‐benefit assessment framework for robotics‐driven inspection of floating offshore wind farms

Abstract Operations and maintenance (O&M) of floating offshore wind farms (FOWFs) poses various challenges in terms of greater distances from the shore, harsher weather conditions, and restricted mobility options. Robotic systems have the potential to automate some parts of the O&M leading to continuous feature‐rich data acquisition, operational efficiency, along with health and safety improvements. There remains a gap in assessing the techno‐economic feasibility of robotics in the FOWF sector. This paper investigates the costs and benefits of incorporating robotics into the O&M of a FOWF. A bottom‐up cost model is used to estimate the costs for a proposed multi‐robot platform (MRP). The MRP houses unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and remotely operated vehicle (ROV) to conduct the inspection of specific FOWF components. Emphasis is laid on the most conducive O&M activities for robotization and the associated technical and cost aspects. The simulation is conducted in Windfarm Operations and Maintenance cost‐Benefit Analysis Tool (WOMBAT), where the metrics of incurred operational expenditure (OPEX) and the inspection time are calculated and compared with those of a baseline case consisting of crew transfer vessels, rope‐access technicians, and divers. Results show that the MRP can reduce the inspection time incurred, but this reduction has dependency on the efficacy of the robotic system and the associated parameterization e.g., cost elements and the inspection rates. Conversely, the increased MRP day rate results in a higher annualized OPEX. Residual risk is calculated to assess the net benefit of incorporating the MRP. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis is conducted to find the key parameters influencing the OPEX and the inspection time variation. A key output of this work is a robust and realistic framework which can be used for the cost‐benefit assessment of future MRP systems for specific FOWF activities.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multifidelity methods for uncertainty quantification of a nonlocal model for phase changes in materials

This study is devoted to the construction of a multifidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC) method for the uncertainty quantification of a nonlocal, non-mass-conserving Cahn-Hilliard model for phase transitions with an obstacle potential. Here, we are interested in estimating the expected value of an output of interest (OoI) that depends on the solution of the nonlocal Cahn-Hilliard model. As opposed to its local counterpart, the nonlocal model captures sharp interfaces without the need for significant mesh refinement. However, the computational cost of the nonlocal Cahn-Hilliard model is higher than that of its local counterpart with similar mesh refinement, inhibiting its use for outer-loop applications such as uncertainty quantification. The MFMC method augments the desired high-fidelity, high-cost OoI with a set of lower-fidelity, lower-cost OoIs to alleviate the computational burden associated with nonlocality. Most of the computational budget is allocated to sampling the cheap surrogate models to achieve speedup, whereas the high-fidelity model is sparsely sampled to maintain accuracy. For the non-mass-conserving nonlocal Cahn-Hilliard model, the use of the MFMC method results in, for a given computational budget, about an order of magnitude reduction in the mean-squared error of the expected value of the OoI relative to that of the Monte Carlo method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Field Evaluation of Do-It-Yourself Air Filtration Solutions for Evaporative Coolers to Reduce Ambient Particle Infiltration in Homes in Wildfire-Affected Communities

Evaporative coolers (ECs) introduce outdoor air pollutants indoors when operating. This study evaluates the potential of do-it-yourself (DIY) air filtration solutions for ECs to cost-effectively reduce the infiltration of ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in homes with ECs using measurements in 48 homes in wildfire-affected agricultural communities in California. All homes received one portable air cleaner (PAC); 25 homes also received DIY filters (mostly MERV 13) attached to their ECs. PurpleAir monitors measured indoor and outdoor PM2.5 concentrations. PAC operation was monitored in all of the homes. EC usage was monitored in some homes and predicted using relative humidity dynamics in all homes. Conditional analyses between EC likely on and off conditions were used to evaluate the impacts of DIY EC filters on ambient PM2.5 infiltration, including during several wildfire-affected days. Median levels of ambient PM2.5 infiltration increased ∼36-42% in homes with only PAC interventions when ECs were likely operating compared to only ∼10-11% in homes with both PACs and DIY EC filters. Pre/postintervention comparisons in a subset of homes confirmed PM2.5 infiltration reductions. EC filter performance declined after extended use. Results suggest that short-term EC filter deployments are likely a cost-effective way to mitigate wildfire smoke infiltration inside these homes.

Wang, Mingyu↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating Nationwide Supply Chain for Circularity of PET and Olefin Plastics

PET (Polyethylene Terephthalate, #1) and olefin plastics including HDPE (High Density Polyethylene, #2), LDPE/LLDPE (Low Density/Linear Low-Density Polyethylene, #4) and PP (Polypropylene, #5) together comprise nearly 80% of the U.S. plastic market. Due to their high market share and extensive application in packaging these polymers have better potential for circularity than other polymer types. To understand the potential of future scenarios with higher recycling rates, supply chain scenarios for PET and olefin plastic packaging need to be analyzed with increased availability and collection of plastics. Currently there exists a knowledge gap to understand the circular supply chain on a national level. Performing a nationwide analysis introduces certain challenges such as variability in the plastic mix of the recycling stream in different municipalities, lack of collection of some types of plastics, regional differences in cost and estimating a national supply curve based on state level access rate and participation rate. Currently, a limited number of Plastic Reclaimers recycle the nation’s collected plastic involving transportation over long distances surpassing state boundaries. Modeling a nationwide scenario instead of regional/state based scenario will facilitate transportation beyond state boundaries for the development of a circular economy. A Mixed-integer Linear Programming model was developed, to identify the optimal location and capacity of the Material Recovery Facilities (MRFs) nationwide subject to maximizing the profit margin of the industrial entities within the model. We considered three different scenarios including the base case scenario (S1) collecting 2.27 million metric tons/year as well as two additional scenarios with available plastic supply of 1.8 times (S2) and 2.2 times (S3) of the base case scenario. The model identified 166, 275 and 319 counties as potential MRF locations for scenarios S1, S2 and S3 respectively. Compared to the existing number of counties having MRFs in the US, the model results indicated a reduction of 38% of MRFs for S1. For S2 and S3, the number of counties with MRFs increased 3% and 20% respectively compared to counties currently with MRFs. The average profit remains constant between $180-$181/ton regardless of the increased plastic collection.

54 - ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES/GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ↗