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At least 667 records · Page 37
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2024

Cost and Benefit Analysis of Mitigating, Tracking, and Remediating Orbital Debris

Orbital debris may collide with crewed and robotic spacecraft, placing them at risk. The wide range of debris, from 9,000-kilogram rocket bodies to millions of millimeter-size debris, has led to a similarly wide range of proposed actions for addressing the risks posed by debris. However, the costs and benefits of these actions have historically been unknown. This is a challenge for decision makers who are choosing which actions to support through technology development or policy changes. NASA’s Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy is addressing these technical and economic uncertainties by building a capability to (1) complete rigorous calculations of the net present value of each action, (2) identify an optimal portfolio of actions to reduce risk, and (3) quantitatively analyze policies related to space sustainability. This report describes our progress toward that capability and to solicit feedback from the space and economic communities. Our previous work, referred to here as Phase 1, assessed the costs and benefits of performing debris remediation on operationally relevant timescales. The current analysis contains major updates to the risk model used in Phase 1 and expands the breadth of actions considered to include mitigating the creation of debris, improving the ability to track debris, and more methods for cleaning up existing debris. We demonstrate that our approach of measuring risks in dollars allows for the effectiveness of seemingly incommensurate actions to be compared and generates insights that other approaches to measuring risk have missed.

Jericho Locke↗
NASA NTRS2024

Cost and Benefit Analysis of Mitigating, Tracking, and Remediating Orbital Debris

Presentation accompanying the technical report with the same name. The abstract for the report and the full study is repeated below. Orbital debris may collide with crewed and robotic spacecraft, placing them at risk. The wide range of debris, from 9,000-kilogram rocket bodies to millions of millimeter-size debris, has led to a similarly wide range of proposed actions for addressing the risks posed by debris. However, the costs and benefits of these actions have historically been unknown. This is a challenge for decision makers who are choosing which actions to support through technology development or policy changes. NASA’s Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy is addressing these technical and economic uncertainties by building a capability to (1) complete rigorous calculations of the net present value of each action, (2) identify an optimal portfolio of actions to reduce risk, and (3) quantitatively analyze policies related to space sustainability. This report describes our progress toward that capability and to solicit feedback from the space and economic communities. Our previous work, referred to here as Phase 1, assessed the costs and benefits of performing debris remediation on operationally relevant timescales. The current analysis contains major updates to the risk model used in Phase 1 and expands the breadth of actions considered to include mitigating the creation of debris, improving the ability to track debris, and more methods for cleaning up existing debris. We demonstrate that our approach of measuring risks in dollars allows for the effectiveness of seemingly incommensurate actions to be compared and generates insights that other approaches to measuring risk have missed.

Jericho Locke↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reliability-Informed Life Cycle Warranty Cost and Life Cycle Analysis of Newly Manufactured and Remanufactured Units

Standard life cycle techniques such as life cycle warranty cost (LCWC) analysis and life cycle analysis (LCA) are used to respectively quantify the relative economical and environmental advantages of remanufactured goods while simultaneously identifying avenues for improvement. In this paper, we contribute to the literature on life cycle studies by incorporating reliability into LCWC analysis and LCA with the goal of improving long-term/multiple life cycle decision making. We develop a branched power-law model to incorporate the physical degradation mechanisms leading to reduced reuse rates of system parts over multiple life cycles. We then follow a standard LCA protocol to quantify the difference between a new unit and its remanufactured version in terms of environmental impact items such as abiotic depletion potential, global warming potential, and energy consumption. We then devise four practical warranty policies that vary in the choice of replacement and/or provision for extended warranty. All possible replacement scenarios for multiple life cycles are explored for each policy and a mathematically rigorous framework is provided, where the reliability information is used to calculate probabilistic LCWC and life cycle impact items. This reliability-informed LCWC analysis and LCA framework enables design engineers to compare design options and warranty policies by quantifying both economical and environmental impacts to aid in decision making. Although the framework is presented in a general form applicable to any engineered system, we demonstrate the utility of this framework by using a case study of an infinitely variable transmission used in agricultural equipment.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2007

A Decision Tool that Combines Discrete Event Software Process Models with System Dynamics Pieces for Software Development Cost Estimation and Analysis

The development process for a large software development project is very complex and dependent on many variables that are dynamic and interrelated. Factors such as size, productivity and defect injection rates will have substantial impact on the project in terms of cost and schedule. These factors can be affected by the intricacies of the process itself as well as human behavior because the process is very labor intensive. The complex nature of the development process can be investigated with software development process models that utilize discrete event simulation to analyze the effects of process changes. The organizational environment and its effects on the workforce can be analyzed with system dynamics that utilizes continuous simulation. Each has unique strengths and the benefits of both types can be exploited by combining a system dynamics model and a discrete event process model. This paper will demonstrate how the two types of models can be combined to investigate the impacts of human resource interactions on productivity and ultimately on cost and schedule.

Mizell, Carolyn Barrett↗
NASA NTRS1988

Low cost real time interactive analysis system

Efforts continue to develop a low cost real time interactive analysis system for the reception of satellite data. A multi-purpose ingest hardware software frame formatter was demonstrated for GOES and TIROS data and work is proceeding on extending the capability to receive GMS data. A similar system was proposed as an archival and analysis system for use with INSAT data and studies are underway to modify the system to receive the planned SeaWiFS (ocean color) data. This system was proposed as the core of a number of international programs in support of U.S. AID activities. Systems delivered or nearing final testing are listed.

Stetina, F.↗
NASA NTRS1976

A cost and utility analysis of NIM/CAMAC standards and equipment for shuttle payload data acquisition and control systems. Volume 3: Tasks 3 and 4

The modifications for the Nuclear Instrumentation Modular (NIM) and Computer Automated Measurement Control (CAMAC) equipment, designed for ground based laboratory use, that would be required to permit its use in the Spacelab environments were determined. The cost of these modifications were estimated and the most cost effective approach to implementing them were identified. A shared equipment implementation in which the various Spacelab users draw their required complement of standard NIM and CAMAC equipment for a given flight from a common equipment pool was considered. The alternative approach studied was a dedicated equipment implementation in which each of the users is responsible for procuring either their own NIM/CAMAC equipment or its custom built equivalent.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1988

Centaur operations at the space station: Cost and transportation analysis

A study was conducted to expand on the results of an initial study entitled Centaur Operations at the Space Station. The previous study developed technology demonstration missions (TDMs) that utilized the Centaur G-prime upper stage to advance OTV technologies required for accomodations and operations at the Space Station. An initial evaluation was performed of the cost to NASA for TDM implementation. Due to the potential for commercial communication satellite operation utilizing the TDM hardware, an evaluation of the Centaur's transportation potential was also performed.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1999

Aerothermo-Structural Analysis of Low Cost Composite Nozzle/Inlet Components

This research is a cooperative effort among the Turbomachinery and Propulsion Division of NASA Glenn, CCMR of NC A&T State University, and the Tuskegee University. The NC A&T is the lead center and Tuskegee University is the participating institution. Objectives of the research were to develop an integrated aerodynamic, thermal and structural analysis code for design of aircraft engine components, such as, nozzles and inlets made of textile composites; conduct design studies on typical inlets for hypersonic transportation vehicles and setup standards test examples and finally manufacture a scaled down composite inlet. These objectives are accomplished through the following seven tasks: (1) identify the relevant public domain codes for all three types of analysis; (2) evaluate the codes for the accuracy of results and computational efficiency; (3) develop aero-thermal and thermal structural mapping algorithms; (4) integrate all the codes into one single code; (5) write a graphical user interface to improve the user friendliness of the code; (6) conduct test studies for rocket based combined-cycle engine inlet; and finally (7) fabricate a demonstration inlet model using textile preform composites. Tasks one, two and six are being pursued. Selected and evaluated NPARC for flow field analysis, CSTEM for in-depth thermal analysis of inlets and nozzles and FRAC3D for stress analysis. These codes have been independently verified for accuracy and performance. In addition, graphical user interface based on micromechanics analysis for laminated as well as textile composites was developed. Demonstration of this code will be made at the conference. A rocket based combined cycle engine was selected for test studies. Flow field analysis of various inlet geometries were studied. Integration of codes is being continued. The codes developed are being applied to a candidate example of trailblazer engine proposed for space transportation. A successful development of the code will provide a simpler, faster and user-friendly tool for conducting design studies of aircraft and spacecraft engines, applicable in high speed civil transport and space missions.

Shivakumar, Kuwigai↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analysis of the cost, schedule, and risk for Lynx mirror assembly production

This paper analyzes a recently published model for Lynx Mirror Assembly production duration, to understand the sensitivity of duration to various factors. The factors considered are finite process yield, knowledge of the individual process times and finite server reliability. In all of these cases, closed form estimates are given along with numerical examples. This initial analysis indicates that accurate and precise knowledge of the process times is fundamental to making an accurate prediction of schedule duration. Analysis of the failure of any given server is also explained and can be used as the basis of a rational sparing policy.

Jonathan W. Arenberg↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Cost and Throughput Analysis for the NASA Ames Arc Jet Modernization Program

NASA Ames Center is currently evaluating alternatives to modernize the Arc Jet Complex, a critical part of testing for NASA’s planetary missions. NASA’s Arc Jet Complex facilities “are used to simulate the aerothermodynamic heating that a spacecraft endures throughout hypersonic atmospheric entry, and to test candidate thermal protection system (TPS) materials and systems. “Because planetary mission schedules often have tight windows due to planetary alignment constraints, a small increase in schedule could result in a two-year delay. Such a delay could increase the cost of a $1billionmissionbyhundreds of millions of dollars due to project personnel pay and clean room storage. To avoid these costs, the authors support NASA Ames in evaluating return on investment (ROI) and effectiveness of alternatives for modernizing the complex. The first input into the ROI is the deconstruction and construction cost estimates, which are developed using independent research on highly specialized subsystems, vendor quotes, and Unified Facilities Criteria (UFC), depending on the facility and work package. One of the measures of effectiveness is throughput analysis of the test bays, as a main goal of the modernization is to increase the number of possible test runs per year. This analysis is conducted via a probabilistic simulation and accounts for a variety of stochastic factors that influence the sequence of test runs, such as the facility availability; test complexity; the need to pause to assess test results; test failure; and the possibility of a system failure. The methodologies for both these analyses are discussed, along with the challenges presented due to the unique nature of the highly specialized test equipment.

Jennifer Scheel↗
DOE OSTI2022

Towards Fully Secure 5G Ultra-Low Latency Communications: A Cost-Security Functions Analysis

Future components to enhance the basic, native security of 5G networks are either complex mechanisms whose impact in the requiring 5G communications are not considered, or lightweight solutions adapted to ultra-reliable low-latency communications (URLLC) but whose security properties remain under discussion. Although different 5G network slices may have different requirements, in general, both visions seem to fall short at provisioning secure URLLC in the future. In this work we address this challenge, by introducing cost-security functions as a method to evaluate the performance and adequacy of most developed and employed non-native enhanced security mechanisms in 5G networks. We categorize those new security components into different groups according to their purpose and deployment scope. We propose to analyze them in the context of existing 5G architectures using two different approaches. First, using model checking techniques, we will evaluate the probability of an attacker to be successful against each security solution. Second, using analytical models, we will analyze the impact of these security mechanisms in terms of delay, throughput consumption, and reliability. Finally, we will combine both approaches using stochastic cost-security functions and the PRISM model checker to create a global picture. Our results are first evidence of how a 5G network that covers and strengthened all security areas through enhanced, dedicated non-native mechanisms could only guarantee secure URLLC with a probability of ~55%.

5G networks↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Opportunity in Commercial Approaches for Future NASA Deep Space Exploration Elements

In 2011, NASA released a report assessing the market for commercial crew and cargo services to low Earth orbit (LEO). The report stated that NASA had spent a few hundred million dollars in the Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) program on the portion related to the development of the Falcon 9 launch vehicle. Yet a NASA cost model predicted the cost would have been significantly more with a non-commercial cost-plus contracting approach. By 2016 a NASA request for information stated it must "maximize the efficiency and sustainability of the Exploration Systems development programs", as "critical to free resources for reinvestment...such as other required deep space exploration capabilities." This work joins the previous two events, showing the potential for commercial, public private partnerships, modeled on programs like COTS, to reduce the cost to NASA significantly for "...other required deep space exploration capabilities." These other capabilities include landers, stages and more. We mature the concept of "costed baseball cards", adding cost estimates to NASA's space systems "baseball cards." We show some potential costs, including analysis, the basis of estimates, data sources and caveats to address a critical question - based on initial assessment, are significant agency resources justified for more detailed analysis and due diligence to understand and invest in public private partnerships for human deep space exploration systems? The cost analysis spans commercial to cost-plus contracting approaches, for smaller elements vs. larger, with some variation for lunar or Mars. By extension, we delve briefly into the potentially much broader significance of the individual cost estimates if taken together as a NASA investment portfolio where public private partnership are stitched together for deep space exploration. How might multiple improvements in individual systems add up to NASA human deep space exploration achievements, realistically, affordably, sustainably, in a relevant timeframe?

cost modeling estimation↗
DOE OSTI2023

Cost and life cycle analysis for deep CO 2 emissions reduction of steelmaking: Blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace and electric arc furnace technologies

Iron and steel manufacturing is the largest contributor to CO 2 emissions among heavy industries worldwide. This is mostly due to the use of coal in blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) process for virgin (primary) steel production. The electricity generation mix used in the electric arc furnace (EAF) process to recycle scrap steel also contributes to the CO 2 emission associated with secondary steel production. To decarbonize iron and steel sector, we investigated decarbonization options for BF-BOF and EAF processes, including energy efficiency, carbon capture and storage, and the use of clean energy sources, in various BF-BOF and EAF process configurations. Additionally, for each decarbonization approach, we evaluated the CO 2 reduction potential via life cycle analysis (LCA) and estimated the associated cost through techno-economic analysis (TEA). A typical U.S. BF-BOF for virgin steel production has a cradle-to-gate (CTG) CO 2 emissions of 1,990 kg/MT steel with a levelized cost of steel (LCOS) of $\$439$/MT steel, while a typical U.S. EAF process for secondary steel production in the United States has a CTG CO 2 emissions of 270 kg/MT steel with a LCOS of $\$365$/MT steel. Combining renewable energy sources and carbon capture, BF-BOF CTG CO 2 emissions can be reduced to 16 kg/MT steel, and EAF configurations can achieve similar deep reductions to reach 25 kg/MT steel. The corresponding LCOS with these decarbonization levels is estimated to increase to $\$542$/MT steel and $\$348$/MT steel, respectively. The estimated CO 2 avoidance costs vary from -$\$90$/MT CO 2 to $\$646$/MT CO 2 , depending on the various decarbonization technologies and energy prices.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bottom-Up Costs and Market Analysis of the Horizontal Ribbon Growth (HRG) Technology (Final Report)

The American-Made Solar Prize is a prize competition from the U.S. Department of Energy that is designed to revitalize U.S. solar manufacturing. The competition aims to support the growth of U.S. solar manufacturing and reenergize American energy innovation by tapping into American's competitive spirit and the nation's unparalleled innovation ecosystem leveraging national labs, incubators, facilities and more. National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL) will provide technical and business advisement to the noted Solar Prize finalists. This CRADA will involve the development of a cost model of the CRADA Participant's horizontal ribbon growth (HRG) technology for making silicon wafers for solar cells.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Providencia Island High-Level Power System Capacity Expansion Analyses [Slides]

Results of a high level cost-benefit analysis using HOMER Pro software are presented for Providencia Island, Colombia. The analysis focuses on integrating solar photovoltaics (PV) and a battery energy storage system (BESS) into an existing diesel-only remote power system. The analysis uses fuel costs and discount rates provided by the stakeholders and NREL-derived capital cost estimates.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Western Interconnection Baseline Study

The purpose of the baseline study is to evaluate the degree to which current industry planning processes meet the national 2035 decarbonization goals for the Western Interconnection. This analysis serves as a comparative baseline for the scenario analysis conducted in the NTP Study using a Western Interconnection dataset that is readily available to industry. This baseline analysis differs from the production cost modeling analysis and power flow analysis in the main NTP Study report (forthcoming). In particular, the analysis presented in this report reflects a business-as-usual future with an optimistic build out of specific planned transmission projects and foreseeable generation. In contrast, the NTP Study models a future generation and transmission expansion based on optimization from a capacity expansion model. The analysis presented herein also reflects a 2030 timeframe, whereas the main NTP Study production cost modeling analysis and power flow analysis reflect a 2035 time frame. This baseline analysis utilizes industry’s most reliable data to account for future transmission projects across various stages of development, with a particular focus on those in the permitting stage. Additionally, it incorporates projections for changes in generation capacity (both additions and retirements). This baseline analysis outlines a probable trajectory, given current process and practice, for the future of the bulk power system with a horizon extending to 2030.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS1997

Cost and Business Analysis Module (CABAM)

In the recent couple of decades, due to international competition, the US launchers lost a considerable amount of market share in the international space launch industry'. Increased international competition has continuously affected the US dominance to eventually place great pressure on future US space launch programs. To compete for future payload and passenger delivery markets, new launch vehicles must first be capable of reliably reaching a number of desired orbital destinations with customer-desired payload capacities. However, the ultimate success of a new launch vehicle program will depend on the launch price it is capable of offering it's customers. Extremely aggressive pricing strategies will be required for a new domestic launch service to compete with low-price international launchers. Low launch prices, then, naturally require a tight budget for the launch program economy. Therefore, budget constraints established by low-pricing requirements eventually place pressure on new launch vehicles to have unprecedentedly low Life Cycle Costs (LCC's).

Lee, Michael Hosung↗