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At least 667 records · Page 37

Estimation of plasma properties using an extended Kalman filter with plasma global models

A physically-constrained extended Kalman filter (EKF) is applied to various zero-dimensional global models for the estimation of plasma properties using time-dependent experimental data such as the plasma density or ion flux. The capability of the EKF is demonstrated to estimate unknown system states simultaneously, such as reaction rate coefficients and the absorbed electron input power, which can be difficult, if not impossible, to measure experimentally. Global models accounting for pure argon reactions and argon-oxygen reactions are used in this work to demonstrate the ability of the filter to estimate dynamic and complex systems. Furthermore, the results obtained from the EKF plasma global model illustrate that model-data fusion techniques can be used to estimate plasma properties and processes for time-varying systems, such as pulsed discharges.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Dark matter haloes of massive elliptical galaxies at z ∼ 0.2 are well described by the Navarro–Frenk–White profile

ABSTRACT We investigate the internal structure of elliptical galaxies at z ∼ 0.2 from a joint lensing–dynamics analysis. We model Hubble Space Telescope images of a sample of 23 galaxy–galaxy lenses selected from the Sloan Lens ACS (SLACS) survey. Whereas the original SLACS analysis estimated the logarithmic slopes by combining the kinematics with the imaging data, we estimate the logarithmic slopes only from the imaging data. We find that the distribution of the lensing-only logarithmic slopes has a median 2.08c ± 0.03 and intrinsic scatter 0.13 ± 0.02, consistent with the original SLACS analysis. We combine the lensing constraints with the stellar kinematics and weak lensing measurements, and constrain the amount of adiabatic contraction in the dark matter (DM) haloes. We find that the DM haloes are well described by a standard Navarro–Frenk–White halo with no contraction on average for both of a constant stellar mass-to-light ratio (M/L) model and a stellar M/L gradient model. For the M/L gradient model, we find that most galaxies are consistent with no M/L gradient. Comparison of our inferred stellar masses with those obtained from the stellar population synthesis method supports a heavy initial mass function (IMF) such as the Salpeter IMF. We discuss our results in the context of previous observations and simulations, and argue that our result is consistent with a scenario in which active galactic nucleus feedback counteracts the baryonic-cooling-driven contraction in the DM haloes.

Shajib, Anowar J.↗

Keck/NIRC2 L’-band Imaging of Jovian-mass Accreting Protoplanets around PDS 70

We present L’-band imaging of the PDS 70 planetary system with Keck/NIRC2 using the new infrared pyramid wave front sensor. We detected both PDS 70 b and c in our images, as well as the front rim of the circumstellar disk. After subtracting off a model of the disk, we measured the astrometry and photometry of both planets. Placing priors based on the dynamics of the system, we estimated PDS 70 b to have a semimajor axis of 20{sub −4}{sup +3} au and PDS 70 c to have a semimajor axis of 34{sub −6}{sup +12} au (95% credible interval). We fit the spectral energy distribution (SED) of both planets. For PDS 70 b, we were able to place better constraints on the red half of its SED than previous studies and inferred the radius of the photosphere to be 2–3 R {sub Jup}. The SED of PDS 70 c is less well constrained, with a range of total luminosities spanning an order of magnitude. With our inferred radii and luminosities, we used evolutionary models of accreting protoplanets to derive a mass of PDS 70 b between 2 and 4 M {sub Jup} and a mean mass accretion rate between 3 × 10{sup −7} and 8 × 10{sup −7} M {sub Jup}/yr. For PDS 70 c, we computed a mass between 1 and 3 M {sub Jup} and mean mass accretion rate between 1 × 10{sup −7} and 5 × 10{sup −7} M {sub Jup}/yr. The mass accretion rates imply dust accretion timescales short enough to hide strong molecular absorption features in both planets’ SEDs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Precambrian Crystalline Basement Properties From Pressure History Matching and Implications for Induced Seismicity in the US Midcontinent

Injection-induced seismicity across the US midcontinent has almost exclusively occurred in the crystalline basement that underlies the Arbuckle Group aquifer and its equivalents, the primary wastewater disposal zone in this region. However, the properties of the basement are not well known. Newly compiled data, from Class I wells in Kansas, provide a unique record of pressures in the Arbuckle and an opportunity to constrain the reservoir-scale properties of the basement such as permeability, diffusivity, and specific storage. Constraints on these parameters are critical for modeling fluid flow and pressures across the entire Arbuckle-basement system, and are necessary for accurate evaluation and prediction of injection-induced earthquakes. Here, we present a detailed, three-dimensional geological and pressure history-matched numerical model for the Arbuckle and basement, based on data from >400 wells covering a large region in south-central Kansas, where injection-induced seismicity has been concentrated since 2014. Simulations of dynamic data from 319 wells indicate that Arbuckle pressures have increased by 1.1 MPa in high injection rate areas and an overpressure of <0.1 MPa may be the cause of seismicity in the basement. Pressure-history matching also yields the likely range in porosity (0.3%–7%), permeability (0.1–0.7 mD), and diffusivity (0.004–0.07 m2 /s) for the basement. The resulting estimates suggest reservoir-scale properties of the basement are enhanced by faults and fractures. Importantly, the diffusivities determined in this study are lower than estimates derived from Kansas earthquake triggering fronts, and suggest that such seismicity-based techniques may have limitations, particularly where spacetime patterns between injection and seismicity are complex.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Convective Updraft and Downdraft Characteristics of Continental Mesoscale Convective Systems in the Model Gray Zone

Here, the "gray zone" of convective modeling is defined as the range of horizontal grid spacings (Δx) at which turbulent transport processes are only partially resolved by the dynamics of the numerical model. This zone typically covers Δx from a few kilometers to several hundred meters, wherein the realistic representation of convective cloud processes can be challenging. This study characterizes the convective draft behaviors at multiple Δx across the gray zone and determines the appropriate Δx that can reliably capture these salient convective properties. We perform an ensemble of idealized simulations of mesoscale convective systems (MCS) using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at various Δx from 4 km to 250 m over the central U.S. An evaluation of key MCS kinematic properties is constrained using unique, long-term vertical velocity estimates obtained by radar wind profilers deployed by the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement user facility. MCS simulations for all Δx tested overestimate (underestimate) the probabilities of convective updrafts (downdrafts) compared to the observations. In terms of the convective draft intensity, finer-Δx models overestimate the updraft intensity, while the opposite is found for downdrafts. Moving from Δx = 4 km to 250 m, downdrafts become stronger and more frequent especially at middle and upper levels, attributed to additional drag from an increasing graupel frequency and compensation of enhanced updraft velocity. Simulated draft characteristics, including core size, intensity, and probability of occurrence, exhibit pronounced changes at Δx greater than 500 m, but suggest less sensitivity when Δx is reduced below 500 m.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A data-driven network optimisation approach to coordinated control of distributed photovoltaic systems and smart buildings in distribution systems

The increasing integration of distributed energy resources, including demand-side resources and distributed photovoltaics (PVs), into distribution systems has resulted in more complicated power system operation. A data-driven network optimisation approach is proposed to coordinate the control of distributed PVs and smart buildings in distribution networks considering the uncertainties of solar power, outdoor temperature and heat gain associated with building thermal dynamics. These uncertain parameters have a significant impact on the operation and control of distributed PVs and smart buildings, bringing challenges to the distribution system operation. In the proposed data-driven distributionally robust optimisation (DRO) approach, the Wasserstein ball is used to construct an ambiguity set for the uncertain parameters, which does not require the probability distributions to be known. Furthermore, a conditional value-at-risk is incorporated into the Wasserstein-based DRO model and converted into a computationally tractable mixed-integer convex optimisation problem. Benchmarked with robust optimisation and chance-constrained programming, the proposed data-driven model can give a less conservative robust solution.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A shared-mobility-based framework for evacuation planning and operations under forecast uncertainty

To meet evacuation needs from carless populations who need personalized assistance to evacuate safely, in this article we propose a ridesharing-based evacuation program that recruits volunteer drivers before a disaster strikes, and then matches volunteer drivers with evacuees once demand is realized. Here we optimize resource planning and evacuation operations under uncertain spatiotemporal demand, and construct a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer program to ensure high demand fulfillment rates. We consider three formulations to improve the number of evacuees served, by minimizing an expected penalty cost, imposing a probabilistic constraint, and enforcing a constraint on the conditional value at risk of the total number of unserved evacuees, respectively. We discuss the benefits and disadvantages of the different risk measures used in the three formulations, given certain carless population sizes and the variety of evacuation modes available. We also develop a heuristic approach to provide quick, dynamic and conservative solutions. We demonstrate the performance of our approaches using five different networks of varying sizes based on regions of Charleston County, South Carolina, an area that experienced a mandatory evacuation order during Hurricane Florence, and utilize real demographic data and hourly traffic count data to estimate the demand distribution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

STOCHASTIC OPTIMAL POWER FLOW FOR REAL-TIME MANAGEMENT OF DISTRIBUTED RENEWABLE GENERATION AND DEMAND RESPONSE (Final Report)

To meet the grand challenge of a sustainable energy future, there has been a surge of interest in renewable energy. Today, the uncertainty associated with renewable resources is handled by using operating reserves. The high penetration of renewable resources, however, introduces difficult-to-control dynamics and challenges for power system operation. Decision support tools are necessary at the bulk system operational level to recognize and efficiently utilize renewable resources and distributed demand response products in concert with traditional grid resources. It is envisaged that responsive load can potentially have very significant cost advantages over either spinning or non-spinning ramping reserve. Critical decisions are made during hour(s)-ahead and real-time power system operation regarding the commitment and dispatch of generators to ensure power delivery is both reliable and economic. These decisions are typically made by a security constrained optimal flow, which determines future generator commitments, dispatches, and ensures adequate reserves are available in the event of a contingency (unexpected outage) or if future system conditions deviate from forecasts. However, security has been always based on a pre-specified subset of contingency constraints whose enforcement does not guarantee security under all possible future possibilities while also giving little or no weight to the likelihood of each contingent event or the severity of its consequences. Existing tools, which are based exclusively on deterministic optimization models, do not yield optimal operational decisions to address these new challenges, in terms of both reliability and cost-effectiveness. This project has focused on developing a stochastic optimal power flow (SOPF) framework, which integrates renewable resource uncertainty, load uncertainty, distributed storage (DS), demand response (DR) products, in a holistic manner to address the uncertainty associated with ever-increasing renewable resources, along with the inclusion of distributed demand response products in future power systems. A proof-of-concept problem was created using the Pennsylvania-Jersey-Maryland (PJM) power system network. Synthetic wind generation was added to the system to simulate 50% wind penetration. A 1-hour test of SOPF operation indicated more than 6% operational cost savings. The project continued by adding the Midwestern Independent System Operator (MISO) as a partner, with focus shifting from SOPF to Stochastic Look-Ahead Unit Commitment (SLAC). Unlike PJM, MISO is faced with significant renewable energy resources within its footprint and is challenged with substantial uncertainty in its operations. The SLAC distinguishes itself from existing tools that operators use. At best, today’s tools solve two to three cases independently, where one or two system parameters, such as forecasted load level (e.g., a low, base, and high forecast), are varied and the resulting scenarios are analyzed independently. The stochastic-based optimization of SLAC leverages statistical information from an ensemble of potential operational scenarios and their respective likelihood. The SLAC output can be translated into valuable information to the operator such as suggested commitments, optimal scheduling and dispatch of resources, reserve requirements at both locational and zonal resolutions, ramping availability and requirements, availability of demand response including operational guidance concerning the near-term and real-time coordination between distributed energy resources, and utilization of distributed storage resources. The developed SOPF/SLAC tool, a stand-alone tool compatible with existing EMSs, will provide system operators with unprecedented visibility, flexibility and predictability to these resources and operational guidance concerning the real-time coordination between DERs and DR/DS products. The game changing and practical impact of this disruptive technology will be dramatic and will usher in a new era in the electric power industry, wherein green energy concepts are fully embraced, and electric power costs are lowered throughout the nation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Maximum respiration rates in hyporheic zone sediments are primarily constrained by organic carbon concentration and secondarily by organic matter chemistry

Abstract. River corridors are fundamental components of the Earth system, and their biogeochemistry can be heavily influenced by processes in subsurface zones immediately below the riverbed, referred to as the hyporheic zone. Within the hyporheic zone, organic matter (OM) fuels microbial respiration, and OM chemistry heavily influences aerobic and anaerobic biogeochemical processes. The link between OM chemistry and respiration has been hypothesized to be mediated by OM molecular diversity, whereby respiration is predicted to decrease with increasing diversity. Here we test the specific prediction that aerobic respiration rates will decrease with increases in the number of unique organic molecules (i.e., OM molecular richness, as a measure of diversity). We use publicly available data across the United States from crowdsourced samples taken by the Worldwide Hydrobiogeochemical Observation Network for Dynamic River Systems (WHONDRS) consortium. Our continental-scale analyses rejected the hypothesis of a direct limitation of respiration by OM molecular richness. In turn, we found that organic carbon (OC) concentration imposes a primary constraint over hyporheic zone respiration, with additional potential influences of OM richness. We specifically observed respiration rates to decrease nonlinearly with the ratio of OM richness to OC concentration. This relationship took the form of a constraint space with respiration rates in most systems falling below the constraint boundary. A similar, but slightly weaker, constraint boundary was observed when relating respiration rate to the inverse of OC concentration. These results indicate that maximum respiration rates may be governed primarily by OC concentration, with secondary influences from OM richness. Our results also show that other variables often suppress respiration rates below the maximum associated with the richness-to-concentration ratio. An important focus of future research will identify physical (e.g., sediment grain size), chemical (e.g., nutrient concentrations), and/or biological (e.g., microbial biomass) factors that suppress hyporheic zone respiration below the constraint boundaries observed here.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Microkinetic Modeling of the Transient CO 2 Methanation with DFT–Based Uncertainties in a Berty Reactor

The transient operation of methanation reactors can become desirable when coupled with fluctuating renewable energies in Power-to-Gas scenarios, which requires suitable kinetic approaches that can describe the transient catalytic phenomena. A combined experimental and theoretical investigation of the transient CO 2 methanation is conducted using concentration forcing to derive a suitable microkinetic model. Methanation experiments are performed with a Ni/SiO 2 catalyst in a Berty-type reactor at industrially relevant conditions. The microkinetics are based on previous work and were automatically constructed for the Ni(111) facet using the Reaction Mechanism Generator. A feasible set of energetic parameters of the microkinetic models was identified in a theory-constrained optimization procedure within the DFT uncertainty space that can accurately reproduce the experimental results on a first-principles basis. The microkinetic model unravels that the formation of H 2 O* and CH 3 * control the activity and selectivity of Ni(111) under the investigated conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Dynamical instability of collapsed dark matter halos

A self-interacting dark matter halo can experience gravothermal collapse, resulting in a central core with an ultrahigh density. It can further contract and collapse into a black hole, a mechanism proposed to explain the origin of supermassive black holes. We study dynamical instability of the core in general relativity. Here we use a truncated Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution to model the dark matter distribution and solve the Tolman-Oppenheimer-Volkoff equation. For given model parameters, we obtain a series of equilibrium configurations and examine their dynamical instability based on considerations of total energy, binding energy, fractional binding energy, and adiabatic index. Our numerical results indicate that the core can collapse into a black hole when the fractional binding energy reaches 0.035 with a central gravitational redshift of 0.5. We further show for the instability to occur in the classical regime, the boundary temperature of the core should be at least 10% of the mass of dark matter particles; for a 10 9 M ⊙ seed black hole, the particle mass needs to be larger than a few keV. These results can be used to constrain different collapse models, in particular, those with dissipative dark matter interactions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Energy dependence of light hypernuclei production in heavy-ion collisions from a coalescence and statistical-thermal model perspective

A comparison of light hypernuclei production, from Ultra-relativistic Quantum Molecular Dynamics (UrQMD)+coalescence and the thermal model, in heavy ion collisions over a wide range of beam energies and system sizes is presented. We find that both approaches provide generally similar results, with differences in specific details. Especially the ratios of hypertriton to Λ are affected by both the source radius Δr of the coalescence procedure as well as canonical effects. On the other hand, the double ratio S 3 is almost independent of canonical effects, which is in contrast to coalescence. Thus, both the beam energy dependence and centrality dependence of S 3 can be used to constrain the hypertriton source radius. To do so the currently available data are not yet sufficient. Elliptic flow is shown to be unaffected by the source size of the nuclei and an almost perfect mass scaling of the elliptic flow is observed. Furthermore, our predictions further suggest that the existence of the H-dibaryon(ΛΛ) seems ruled out by ALICE data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Precise Dynamical Masses and Orbital Fits for β Pic b and β Pic c

We present a comprehensive orbital analysis to the exoplanets β Pictoris b and c that resolves previously reported tensions between the dynamical and evolutionary mass constraints on β Pic b. We use the Markov Chain Monte Carlo orbit code orvara to fit 15 years of radial velocities and relative astrometry (including recent GRAVITY measurements), absolute astrometry from Hipparcos and Gaia, and a single relative radial velocity measurement between β Pic A and b. We measure model-independent masses of 9.3{sub −2.5}{sup +2.6} M {sub Jup} for β Pic b and 8.3 ± 1.0 M {sub Jup} for β Pic c. These masses are robust to modest changes to the input data selection. We find a well-constrained eccentricity of 0.119 ± 0.008 for β Pic b, and an eccentricity of 0.21{sub −0.09}{sup +0.16} for β Pic c, with the two orbital planes aligned to within ∼05. Both planets’ masses are within ∼1σ of the predictions of hot-start evolutionary models and exclude cold starts. We validate our approach on N-body synthetic data integrated using REBOUND. We show that orvara can account for three-body effects in the β Pic system down to a level ∼5 times smaller than the GRAVITY uncertainties. Systematics in the masses and orbital parameters from orvara’s approximate treatment of multiplanet orbits are a factor of ∼5 smaller than the uncertainties we derive here. Future GRAVITY observations will improve the constraints on β Pic c’s mass and (especially) eccentricity, but improved constraints on the mass of β Pic b will likely require years of additional radial velocity monitoring and improved precision from future Gaia data releases.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Optimization of a Secondary Air Injector for a Rich-Quench-Lean (RQL) Ammonia Combustor Using Computational Fluid Dynamics

Ammonia has emerged as a promising medium for moving hydrogen around the globe due to its energy density, existing infrastructure for production, transportation, and storage, and multiple applications from fertilizer to power generation. However, one of the most significant challenges with ammonia combustion for power generation is the formation of nitrogen oxides (NOx) during combustion. Several combustion strategies have been developed to minimize the formation of NOx. One such strategy, known as rich-quench-lean (RQL), is a method that combusts NH3 in a fuel-rich environment, followed by a quick mix section and a lean burnout section. Rapid mixing of secondary air before lean burnout is thought to be important to minimize the formation of NOx. A genetic algorithm (GA) is used to parametrically vary the secondary air injector design, including the diameter, count, and angles over a constrained design space. The designs are evaluated using a non-reacting OpenFOAM model, with the objective function being the uniformity index of the secondary air (modeled as a scalar). Optimization campaigns show that traditional correlation-based designs might not be adequate. After running 414 OpenFOAM models, the optimal design is 32, 1 mm diameter, angled air injectors, increasing the uniformity index at the outlet of the quick mix zone by 36.8%. The most promising designs will be manufactured and tested in a small RQL burner setup, which is expected to lead to validation and insight into the practical usage of NH3 combustion for power generation.

ammonia combustion↗

Mapping the global distribution of C 4 vegetation using observations and optimality theory

Plants with the C 4 photosynthesis pathway typically respond to climate change differently from more common C 3 -type plants, due to their distinct anatomical and biochemical characteristics. These different responses are expected to drive changes in global C 4 and C 3 vegetation distributions. However, current C 4 vegetation distribution models may not predict this response as they do not capture multiple interacting factors and often lack observational constraints. Here, we used global observations of plant photosynthetic pathways, satellite remote sensing, and photosynthetic optimality theory to produce an observation-constrained global map of C 4 vegetation. We find that global C 4 vegetation coverage decreased from 17.7% to 17.1% of the land surface during 2001 to 2019. This was the net result of a reduction in C 4 natural grass cover due to elevated CO 2 favoring C 3 -type photosynthesis, and an increase in C 4 crop cover, mainly from corn (maize) expansion. Using an emergent constraint approach, we estimated that C 4 vegetation contributed 19.5% of global photosynthetic carbon assimilation, a value within the range of previous estimates (18–23%) but higher than the ensemble mean of dynamic global vegetation models (14 ± 13%; mean ± one standard deviation). Our study sheds insight on the critical and underappreciated role of C 4 plants in the contemporary global carbon cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Constraints on dark matter from dynamical heating of stars in ultrafaint dwarfs. I. MACHOs and primordial black holes

We place limits on dark matter made up of compact objects significantly heavier than a solar mass, such as MACHOs or primordial black holes (PBHs). In galaxies, the gas of such objects is generally hotter than the gas of stars and will thus heat the gas of stars even through purely gravitational interactions. Ultrafaint dwarf galaxies (UFDs) maximize this effect. Observations of the half-light radius in UFDs thus place limits on MACHO dark matter. We build upon previous constraints with an improved heating rate calculation including both direct and tidal heating, and consideration of the heavier mass range above 10 4 M ⊙ . Additionally we find that MACHOs may lose energy and migrate in to the center of the UFD, increasing the heat transfer to the stars. UFDs can constrain MACHO dark matter with masses between about 10 M ⊙ and 10 8 M ⊙ and these are the strongest constraints over most of this range. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Graham, Peter W. (ORCID:0000000216001601)↗

Experimental shock Hugoniot and melt boundary temperatures of aluminum

Aluminum is a ubiquitous component in dynamic compression, pulsed power, and other high energy density physics studies. Its high-pressure behavior and phase diagram are extensively studied standards in shockwave physics. While theoretical calculations and multiphase equations of state have been benchmarked to velocity measurements of loading and unloading waves, pressure and density under shock, and other mechanical data, experimental temperature data under these conditions have not been reported. We conducted a series of experiments shocking and releasing aluminum 6061 and 1100 samples into lithium fluoride windows. We measured temperature at the sample–window interface under steady compression and subsequent isentropic release. These results allow us to constrain the temperature of the solid Hugoniot and the boundary between the liquid and face-centered cubic solid phases.

Hartsfield, Thomas Murray [Sandia National Laborat↗

Diffusion-mediated passing of molecular species in linear nanopores constrained by orientational alignment

For diffusion-mediated catalytic conversion reactions in materials with narrow linear nanopores, e.g., mesoporous silica MCM-41, a key parameter is the propensity for product species to be able to pass reactant species and thus to efficiently exit the pore. For elongated species, this can require orientational alignment with the pore axis. In this work, we perform benchmark analyses for such solution-phase systems where one of these species is elongated in order to quantify the dependence of this passing propensity, P, on pore diameter and on the rotational diffusion coefficient, Dr, of the elongated species. In particular, we consider the passing of a spherical and an elongated spherocylindrical shaped species in a cylindrical pore in an implicit solvent, where these species cannot overlap. Passing is mediated by diffusive Brownian motion of these species as described by strongly damped Langevin dynamics. We quantify scaling of P for pore width just above the threshold where passing is sterically blocked, and also reveal a significant decrease in P for lower Dr. We also consider the dependence of P on the aspect ratio of the elongated species and obtain an exact result in the limiting regime of large aspect ratio.

Brownian motion↗