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At least 667 records · Page 37

The Role of the SO2 Radiative Effect in Sustaining the Volcanic Winter and Soothing the Toba Impact on Climate

Volcanic eruptions are an important climate driver. The impact of Pinatubo-sized eruptions has been observed and is well constrained. The magnitude and duration of volcanic winter effects after super-eruptions such as Toba remain disputed due to disagreement between the strong cooling predicted by models, and much milder climate perturbations according to the paleo data. Here we present a re-evaluated climate impact of a Toba-sized super-eruption based on up-to-date GISS ModelE simulations. In this study, we account for all known primary mechanisms that govern the evolution of the volcanic plume and their nonlinear interactions. The SO2 radiative effects are evaluated for the first time in coupled climate simulations with the interactive atmospheric chemistry module. We found that SO2 effects on photochemistry, dynamics, and radiative forcing are especially prominent. Due to strong absorption in ultraviolet, SO2 feedback on photochemistry partially offsets the limiting effect associated with aerosol microphysical processes. SO2 greenhouse warming soothes the radiative cooling exerted by sulfate aerosols. SO2 absorption in the shortwave and longwave causes radiative heating and lofting of the volcanic plume, and boosts the efficiency of SO2 impact on photochemistry. Our analysis shows that SO2 lifetime and magnitude of effects scale up and increase with the amount of emitted material. For a Pinatubo-sized eruption, SO2 feedbacks on chemistry and dynamics are relevant only during the initial stage of the volcanic plume evolution, while local SO2 concentrations are high. For a Toba-sized eruption, SO2 effects are as important as sulfate aerosols, and produce a less extreme volcanic winter.

Sergey Osipov↗

Dynamics of volcanic plumes on Io

Ballistic and aerodynamic models are proposed to explain the dynamics of the volcanic plumes on Io. A ballistic model, which assumes that eruptive gas and solid-particle flows become completely and permanently decoupled over a small distance as compared with the maximum particle height, is shown to be unable to account for the observed shape of Plume 3. An aerodynamic model which assumes the entrainment and transportation of solid particles by the gas flow into the central portion of the top of the plume, with ballistic particle trajectories only after passage through the first part of their descent, is then developed. The model accounts for plume shape by the formation of a weak decompression shock near the edge of the plume stalk, which constrains horizontal expansion until a sufficient altitude is reached. Calculated plume dimensions are then compared with observations of Ionian Plumes 1 and 3.

Cook, A. F.↗

A Test of Sensitivity to Convective Transport in a Global Atmospheric CO2 Simulation

Two approximations to convective transport have been implemented in an offline chemistry transport model (CTM) to explore the impact on calculated atmospheric CO2 distributions. GlobalCO2 in the year 2000 is simulated using theCTM driven by assimilated meteorological fields from the NASA s Goddard Earth Observation System Data Assimilation System, Version 4 (GEOS-4). The model simulates atmospheric CO2 by adopting the same CO2 emission inventory and dynamical modules as described in Kawa et al. (convective transport scheme denoted as Conv1). Conv1 approximates the convective transport by using the bulk convective mass fluxes to redistribute trace gases. The alternate approximation, Conv2, partitions fluxes into updraft and downdraft, as well as into entrainment and detrainment, and has potential to yield a more realistic simulation of vertical redistribution through deep convection. Replacing Conv1 by Conv2 results in an overestimate of CO2 over biospheric sink regions. The largest discrepancies result in a CO2 difference of about 7.8 ppm in the July NH boreal forest, which is about 30% of the CO2 seasonality for that area. These differences are compared to those produced by emission scenario variations constrained by the framework of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to account for possible land use change and residual terrestrial CO2 sink. It is shown that the overestimated CO2 driven by Conv2 can be offset by introducing these supplemental emissions.

Bian, H.↗

Auroral ovals versus flare ribbons: Optical footprints of explosive magnetic field reconfiguration in Earth’s magnetosphere and the Sun’s corona

Despite drastically different plasma conditions in the two systems, eruptive energy release events in solar active regions and in Earth’s magnetosphere have a lot in common. Both solar active region eruptions and the substorm activity in the nightside magnetosphere are known to be associated with an abrupt large-scale reorganization of the supporting magnetic systems enabling the conversion and dissipation of the stored free magnetic energy. The rate of energy accumulation in either system tends to be by orders of magnitude slower than the energy release rate, leading to the formation of an impulsive loading-unloading cycle involving a relatively long pre-reconnection phase (substorm growth phase, pre-flare stressing of an active region magnetic field), a short and explosive reconnection phase (substorm breakup and expansion, eruptive flares and CMEs), and a prolonged post-reconnection phase (substorm recovery phase and the post-flare active region reconfiguration). In Earth’s magnetosphere, this loading-unloading cycle is diagnosed by monitoring characteristic changes in the particle precipitation pattern in the northern and southern auroral ovals marking the boundary between the open and close magnetic flux. The position, shape, structure, and dynamics of the auroral borealis were shown to communicate critically important information about an upcoming substorm, the location and timing of the initial reconnection onset, and the subsequent return of the magnetosphere to a lower-energy state. On the Sun, a similar role is played by the chromospheric flare ribbons which enable a detailed diagnostics of the overlying reconnecting magnetic field. In this talk, we’ll discuss similarities and differences in using auroral and flare ribbon observations for monitoring eruptive energy release in respectively Earth’s magnetosphere and solar corona. Special emphasis will be placed on the quantitative interpretation of the two types of optical signatures for empirical diagnostics of the underlying reconnection activity and for constraining its theoretical models. We’ll also compare forecasting capabilities of the two types of optical signatures in the context of space weather prediction objectives.

V. M. Uritskiy↗

The interpretation of crustal dynamics data in terms of plate interactions and active tectonics of the Anatolian plate and surrounding regions in the Middle East

A detailed study was made of the consequences of the Arabian plate convergence against Eurasia and its effects on the tectonics of Anatolia and surrounding regions of the eastern Mediterranean. A primary source of information is time rates of change of baseline lengths and relative heights determined by repeated SLR measurements. These SLR observations are augmented by a network of GPS stations in Anatolia, Aegea, and Greece, established and twice surveyed since 1988. The existing SLR and GPS networks provide the spatial resolution necessary to reveal the details of ongoing tectonic processes in this area of continental collision. The effort has involved examining the state of stress in the lithosphere and relative plate motions as revealed by these space based geodetic measurements, seismicity, and earthquake mechanisms as well as the aseismic deformations of the plates from conventional geodetic data and geological evidence. These observations are used to constrain theoretical calculations of the relative effects of: (1) the push of the Arabian plate; (2) high topography of Eastern Anatolia; (3) the geometry and properties of African-Eurasian plate boundary; (4) subduction under the Hellenic Arc and southwestern Turkey; and (5) internal deformation and rotation of the Anatolian plate.

Toksoz, M. Nafi↗

Life at the Common Denominator: Mechanistic and Quantitative Biology for the Earth and Space Sciences

The remarkable challenges and possibilities of the coming few decades will compel the biogeochemical and astrobiological sciences to characterize the interactions between biology and its environment in a fundamental, mechanistic, and quantitative fashion. The clear need for integrative and scalable biology-environment models is exemplified in the Earth sciences by the challenge of effectively addressing anthropogenic global change, and in the space sciences by the challenge of mounting a well-constrained yet sufficiently adaptive and inclusive search for life beyond Earth. Our understanding of the life-planet interaction is still, however, largely empirical. A variety of approaches seek to move from empirical to mechanistic descriptions. One approach focuses on the relationship between biology and energy, which is at once universal (all life requires energy), unique (life manages energy flow in a fashion not seen in abiotic systems), and amenable to characterization and quantification in thermodynamic terms. Simultaneously, a focus on energy flow addresses a critical point of interface between life and its geological, chemical, and physical environment. Characterizing and quantifying this relationship for life on Earth will support the development of integrative and predictive models for biology-environment dynamics. Understanding this relationship at its most fundamental level holds potential for developing concepts of habitability and biosignatures that can optimize astrobiological exploration strategies and are extensible to all life.

Hoehler, Tori M.↗

Dynamic Harris current sheet thickness from Cluster current density and plasma measurements

We use the first accurate measurements of current densities in the plasma sheet to calculate the half-thickness and position of the current sheet as a function of time. Our technique assumes a Harris current sheet model, which is parameterized by lobe magnetic field B(o), current sheet half-thickness h, and current sheet position z(sub o). Cluster measurements of magnetic field, current density, and plasma pressure are used to infer the three parameters as a function of time. We find that most long timescale (6-12 hours) current sheet crossings observed by Cluster cannot be described by a static Harris current sheet with a single set of parameters B(sub o), h, and z(sub o). Noting the presence of high-frequency fluctuations that appear to be superimposed on lower frequency variations, we average over running 6-min intervals and use the smoothed data to infer the parameters h(t) and z(sub o)(t), constrained by the pressure balance lobe magnetic field B(sub o)(t). Whereas this approach has been used in previous studies, the spatial gnuhen& now provided by the Cluster magnetometers were unavailable or not well constrained in earlier studies. We place the calculated hdf&cknessa in a magnetospheric context by examining the change in thickness with substorm phase for three case study events and 21 events in a superposed epoch analysis. We find that the inferred half-thickness in many cases reflects the nominal changes experienced by the plasma sheet during substorms (i.e., thinning during growth phase, thickening following substorm onset). We conclude with an analysis of the relative contribution of (Delta)B(sub z)/(Delta)X to the cross-tail current density during substorms. We find that (Delta)B(sub z)/(Delta)X can contribute a significant portion of the cross-tail c m n t around substorm onset.

Thompson, S. M.↗

Prediction and Measurement of the Vibration and Acoustic Radiation of Panels Subjected to Acoustic Loading

Interior noise and sonic fatigue are important issues in the development and design of advanced subsonic and supersonic aircraft. Conventional aircraft typically employ passive treatments, such as constrained layer damping and acoustic absorption materials, to reduce the structural response and resulting acoustic levels in the aircraft interior. These techniques require significant addition of mass and only attenuate relatively high frequency noise transmitted through the fuselage. Although structural acoustic coupling is in general very important in the study of aircraft fuselage interior noise, analysis of noise transmission through a panel supported in an infinite rigid baffle (separating two semi-infinite acoustic domains) can be useful in evaluating the effects of active/adaptive materials, complex loading, etc. Recent work has been aimed at developing adaptive and/or active methods of controlling the structural acoustic response of panels to reduce the transmitted noise1. A finite element formulation was recently developed to study the dynamic response of shape memory alloy (SMA) hybrid composite panels (conventional composite panel with embedded SMA fibers) subject to combined acoustic and thermal loads2. Further analysis has been performed to predict the far-field acoustic radiation using the finite element dynamic panel response prediction3. The purpose of the present work is to validate the panel vibration and acoustic radiation prediction methods with baseline experimental results obtained from an isotropic panel, without the effect of SMA.

Turner, Travis L.↗

The Two Components of the Evolved Massive Binary LZ Cephei: Testing the Effects of Binarity on Stellar Evolution

We present an in-dep(h study of the two components of the binary system LZ Cep to constrain the effects of binarity on the evolution of massive stars. Methods. We analyzed a set of high-resolution, high signal-to-noise ratio optical spectra obtained over the orbital period of the system to perform a spectroscopic disentangling and derive an orbital solution. We subsequently determine the stellar properties of each component by means of an analysis with the CMFGEN atmosphere code. Finally, with the derived stellar parameters, we model the Hipparcos photometric light curve using the program NIGHTFALL to obtain the orbit inclination and the stellar masses. Results.LZ Cep is a O9III+ON9.7V binary. It is as a semi-detailed system in which either the primary or the secondary star almost fills up its Roche lobe. The dynamical masses are about 16.0 Stellar Mass (primary) and 6.5 Stellar Mass (secondary). The latter is lower than the typical mass of late-type O stars. The secondary component is chemically more evolved than the primary (which barely shows any sign of CNO processing), with strong helium and nitrogen enhancements as well as carbon and oxygen depletions. These properties (surface abundances and mass) are typical of Wolf-Rayet stars, although the spectral type is ON9.7V. The luminosity of the secondary is consistent with that of core He-burning objects. The preferred, tentative evolutionary scenario to explain abe observed properties involves mass transfer from the secondary - which was initially more massive- towards the primary. The secondary is now almost a core He-burning object, probably with only a thin envelope of H-rich and CNO processed material. A very inefficient mass transfer is necessary to explain the chemical appearance of the primary. Alternative scenarios are discussed but they are affected by greater uncertainties.

Mahy, L.↗

Study of the Aluminium Content in AGB Winds Using ALMA Indications for the Presence of Gas-Phase (Al2O3)n Clusters

Context: The condensation of inorganic dust grains in the winds of evolved stars is poorly understood. As of today, it is not yet known which molecular clusters form the first dust grains in oxygen-rich (C/O < 1) asymptotic giant branch (AGB) winds. Aluminium oxides and iron-free silicates are often put forward as promising candidates for the first dust seeds. Aims: We aim to constrain the dust formation histories in the winds of oxygen-rich AGB stars. Methods: We obtained Atacama Large Millimeter/sub-millimeter array (ALMA) observations with a spatial resolution of 120 × 150mas tracing the dust formation region of the low mass-loss rate AGB star, R Dor, and the high mass-loss rate AGB star, IK Tau. We detected emission line profiles of AlO, AlOH, and AlCl in the ALMA data and used these line profiles to derive a lower limit of atomic aluminium incorporated in molecules. This constrains the aluminium budget that can condense into grains. Results: Radiative transfer models constrain the fractional abundances of AlO, AlOH, and AlCl in IK Tau and R Dor. We show that the gas-phase aluminium chemistry is completely different in both stars with a remarkable difference in the AlO and AlOH abundance stratification. The amount of aluminium locked up in these three molecules is small, ≤1.1×10−7 w.r.t. H2, for both stars, i.e. only ≤2% of the total aluminium budget. An important result is that AlO and AlOH, which are the direct precursors of alumina (Al2O3) grains, are detected well beyond the onset of the dust condensation, which proves that the aluminium oxide condensation cycle is not fully efficient. The ALMA observations allow us to quantitatively assess the current generation of theoretical dynamical-chemical models for AGB winds. We discuss how the current proposed scenario of aluminium dust condensation for low mass-loss rate AGB stars within a few stellar radii from the star, in particular for R Dor and W Hya, poses a challenge if one wishes to explain both the dust spectral features in the spectral energy distribution (SED) in interferometric data and in the polarized light signal. In particular, the estimated grain temperature of Al2O3 is too high for the grains to retain their amorphous structure. We advocate that large gas-phase (Al2O3)n clusters (n > 34) can be the potential agents of the broad 11µm feature in the SED and in the interferometric data and we propose potential formation mechanisms for these large clusters.

stars↗

Linear Subpixel Learning Algorithm for Land Cover Classification from WELD using High Performance Computing

In this work, we use a Fully Constrained Least Squares Subpixel Learning Algorithm to unmix global WELD (Web Enabled Landsat Data) to obtain fractions or abundances of substrate (S), vegetation (V) and dark objects (D) classes. Because of the sheer nature of data and compute needs, we leveraged the NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) high performance computing architecture to optimize and scale our algorithm for large-scale processing. Subsequently, the S-V-D abundance maps were characterized into 4 classes namely, forest, farmland, water and urban areas (with NPP-VIIRS-national polar orbiting partnership visible infrared imaging radiometer suite nighttime lights data) over California, USA using Random Forest classifier. Validation of these land cover maps with NLCD (National Land Cover Database) 2011 products and NAFD (North American Forest Dynamics) static forest cover maps showed that an overall classification accuracy of over 91 percent was achieved, which is a 6 percent improvement in unmixing based classification relative to per-pixel-based classification. As such, abundance maps continue to offer an useful alternative to high-spatial resolution data derived classification maps for forest inventory analysis, multi-class mapping for eco-climatic models and applications, fast multi-temporal trend analysis and for societal and policy-relevant applications needed at the watershed scale.

Subpixel↗

The saturation of the electron-cyclotron maser instability and the interpretation of solar millisecond spikes

A self-consistent numeric two-dimensional code of the kinetic wave-particle equations developed to investigate the maser dynamics in the solar context is applied to solar millisecond-spike observations in order to improve the diagnostic capabilities of the theory of the electron-cyclotron maser instablitity. Attention is given to the inhomogeneity of the magnetic field selecting magneto-ionic modes with relatively short saturation lengths and suppressing mechanisms such as collisional deflection, free-free absorption, and gyroresonance absorption. The time scales of maser saturation in respect to time scales of global particle changes in a magnetic loop are covered, relevant observations of solar millisecond spikes are described, and the interpretation in terms of physical parameters deduced from the quasi-linear maser simulations are presented. It is demonstrated that the quasi-linear simulations make it possible to constrain the physical parameters from the observed time scale and frequency.

Aschwanden, M. J.↗

Forces Associated with Nonlinear Nonholonomic Constraint Equations

A concise method has been formulated for identifying a set of forces needed to constrain the behavior of a mechanical system, modeled as a set of particles and rigid bodies, when it is subject to motion constraints described by nonholonomic equations that are inherently nonlinear in velocity. An expression in vector form is obtained for each force; a direction is determined, together with the point of application. This result is a consequence of expressing constraint equations in terms of dot products of vectors rather than in the usual way, which is entirely in terms of scalars and matrices. The constraint forces in vector form are used together with two new analytical approaches for deriving equations governing motion of a system subject to such constraints. If constraint forces are of interest they can be brought into evidence in explicit dynamical equations by employing the well-known nonholonomic partial velocities associated with Kane's method; if they are not of interest, equations can be formed instead with the aid of vectors introduced here as nonholonomic partial accelerations. When the analyst requires only the latter, smaller set of equations, they can be formed directly; it is not necessary to expend the labor to form the former, larger set first and subsequently perform matrix multiplications.

Roithmayr, Carlos M.↗

Radio Observations of Organics in Comets

A major observational challenge in cometary science is to quantify the extent to which chemical compounds can be linked to either interstellar or nebular chemistry. Recently, there have been complimentary observations from multiple facilities to try to unravel the chemical complexity of comets and their origins. Incorporating results from various techniques can gain further insight into the abundances, production rates, distributions, and formation mechanisms of molecules in these objects [I]. Such studies have provided great detail towards molecules with a-typical chemistries, such as H2CO [2]. We report multiwavelength spectral observations of comets from two dynamical families including the JFC 103P/Hartley 2 and a long period comet C/2009 PI (Garradd) with the Arizona Radio Observatory's SMT and 12-m telescopes, as well as the NRAO Greenbank telescope, and the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope. Multiple parent volatiles (e.g. HCN, CH30H, CO) as well as daughter products (e.g, CS and 01-1) have been detected in these objects. We will present a comparison of molecular abundances in these comets to those observed in others, supporting a long-term effort of building a comet taxonomy based on composition. Previous work has revealed a range of abundances of parent species (from "organics-poor" to "organics-rich") with respect to water among comets [3,4,5], however the statistics are not well constrained.

Milam, Stefanie N.↗

Modelling the Greenland Ice Sheet's Committed Contribution to Sea Level During the 21st Century

Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet can be partitioned between surface mass balance and discharge due to ice dynamics through its marine-terminating outlet glaciers. A perturbation to a glacier terminus (e.g., a calving event) results in both an instantaneous response in velocity and mass loss and a diffusive response due to the evolution of ice thickness over time. This diffusive response means the total impact of a retreat event can take decades to be fully realized. Here we model the committed response of the Greenland Ice Sheet by applying perturbations to the marine-terminating glacier termini that represent recent observed changes, and simulating the response over the 21st century, while holding the climate forcing constant. The sensitivity of the ice sheet response to model parameter uncertainty is explored within an ensemble framework, and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment data is used to constrain the results using a Bayesian calibration approach. We find that the Greenland Ice Sheet's committed contribution to 21st century sea level rise is at least 33.5 [17.5 52.4] mm (25th and 75th percentiles in brackets), with at least 6 mm being attributable directly to terminus retreat that occurred between 2007 and 2015. The spread in our projections is driven by uncertainty in the basal friction coefficient. Our results complement the ISMIP6 Greenland projections, which report the ice sheet response to future forcing, excluding the background response. In this way, we can obtain estimates of Greenland's total contribution to sea level rise in 2100.

Isabel J. Nias↗

Estimation of Crop Gross Primary Production (GPP): I. Impact of MODIS Observation Footprint and Impact of Vegetation BRDF Characteristics

Accurate estimation of gross primary production (GPP) is essential for carbon cycle and climate change studies. Three AmeriFlux crop sites of maize and soybean were selected for this study. Two of the sites were irrigated and the other one was rainfed. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), the enhanced vegetation index (EVI), the green band chlorophyll index (CIgreen), and the green band wide dynamic range vegetation index (WDRVIgreen) were computed from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) surface reflectance data. We examined the impacts of the MODIS observation footprint and the vegetation bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) on crop daily GPP estimation with the four spectral vegetation indices (VIs - NDVI, EVI, WDRVIgreen and CIgreen) where GPP was predicted with two linear models, with and without offset: GPP = a × VI × PAR and GPP = a × VI × PAR + b. Model performance was evaluated with coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), and coefficient of variation (CV). The MODIS data were filtered into four categories and four experiments were conducted to assess the impacts. The first experiment included all observations. The second experiment only included observations with view zenith angle (VZA) ≤ 35◦ to constrain growth of the footprint size,which achieved a better grid cell match with the agricultural fields. The third experiment included only forward scatter observations with VZA ≤ 35◦. The fourth experiment included only backscatter observations with VZA ≤ 35◦. Overall, the EVI yielded the most consistently strong relationships to daily GPP under all examined conditions. The model GPP = a × VI × PAR + b had better performance than the model GPP = a × VI × PAR, and the offset was significant for most cases. Better performance was obtained for the irrigated field than its counterpart rainfed field. Comparison of experiment 2 vs. experiment 1 was used to examine the observation footprint impact whereas comparison of experiment 4 vs. experiment 3 was used to examine the BRDF impact. Changes in R2, RMSE,CV and changes in model coefficients "a" and "b" (experiment 2 vs. experiment 1; and experiment 4 vs. experiment 3) were indicators of the impacts. The second experiment produced better performance than the first experiment, increasing R2 (↑0.13) and reducing RMSE (↓0.68 g C m−2 d−1) and CV (↓9%). For each VI, the slope of GPP = a × VI × PAR in the second experiment for each crop type changed little while the slope and intercept of GPP = a × VI × PAR + b varied field by field. The CIgreen was least affected by the MODIS observation footprint in estimating crop daily GPP (R2, ↑0.08; RMSE, ↓0.42 g C m−2 d−1; and CV, ↓7%). Footprint most affected the NDVI (R2, ↑0.15; CV, ↓10%) and the EVI (RMSE, ↓0.84 g C m−2 d−1). The vegetation BRDF impact also caused variation of model performance and change of model coefficients. Significantly different slopes were obtained for forward vs. backscatter observations, especially for the CIgreen and the NDVI. Both the footprint impact and the BRDF impact varied with crop types, irrigation options, model options and VI options.

Chlorophyll↗

Guidance Enhancements and Performance Assessments for the Mars Ascent Vehicle Spin-Stabilized Upper Stage Configuration

he objective of the Mars Sample Return (MSR) campaign is to return samples from the surface of Mars to Earth for research. As one element of the MSR campaign, the Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV) is responsible for transporting the samples from the surface of Mars to a Low-Martian Orbit (LMO) for retrieval. Complete autonomy is required throughout ascent, and orbital insertion is constrained by tight dispersion boundaries. An unguided, spin-stabilized second stage for MAV has been selected over a guided upper-stage to drive mass savings and reduce overall MSR campaign mass risk, at the cost of reduced GNC capability. To address this design change, the MAV GNC team has derived a robust prediction algorithm, building on previous energy management schemes, that solves for a single inertial pointing direction solution for the spin-stabilized 2nd stage burn. Algorithm stability is explored that compared to previous versions of the algorithm. Also, a set of analytical partials was developed to study MAV’s dispersed orbital insertion performance with respect to MAV system uncertainties. These partials were verified through simulation analysis and prove useful for analytical insight into the dynamics of MAV during the 2nd stage maneuver.

Jason M Everett↗

Guidance Enhancements and Performance Assessments for the Mars Ascent Vehicle Spin-Stabilized Upper Stage Configuration

The objective of the Mars Sample Return (MSR) campaign is to return samples from the surface of Mars to Earth for research. As one element of the MSR campaign, the Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV) is responsible for transporting the samples from the surface of Mars to a Low-Martian Orbit (LMO) for retrieval. Complete autonomy is required throughout ascent, and orbital insertion is constrained by tight dispersion boundaries. An unguided, spin-stabilized second stage for MAV has been selected over a guided upper-stage to drive mass savings and reduce overall MSR campaign mass risk, at the cost of reduced GNC capability. To address this design change, the MAV GNC team has derived a robust prediction algorithm, building on previous energy management schemes, that solves for a single inertial pointing direction solution for the spin-stabilized 2nd stage burn. Algorithm stability is explored that compared to previous versions of the algorithm. Also, a set of analytical partials was developed to study MAV’s dispersed orbital insertion performance with respect to MAV system uncertainties. These partials were verified through simulation analysis and prove useful for analytical insight into the dynamics of MAV during the 2nd stage maneuver.

GNC↗