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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Statistical Analysis of Fading Power Vectors for Real-Time Atmospheric Channel Emulation

The design and testing of a free-space optical communication system requires assessment of the impact of random fluctuations in received power from a laser beam transmitted over an atmospheric channel. A number of methods for generating fading power vectors for in-lab emulation of an atmospheric channel have previously been reported. These techniques include spectral shaping and filtering of a signal from a normally distributed pseudo-random number generator, full wave optics simulations with random phase screens, and pre-recorded measurements from experimental free-space links. In this work, a statistical analysis of atmospheric fading is presented with the goal of producing a practical engineering model for the fading channel suitable for generating synthetic fade vectors in real-time for long-duration receiver testing with channel interleaving. Specifically, a parametric model is developed for turbulence-induced fade on space-to-ground links with large-aperture receivers, including aperture-averaging and the effects of aperture size on the instantaneous coupling efficiency for mode- limited receivers. In particular, we analyze the probability density function and temporal power spectrum for fluctuations of the coupling efficiency for few-mode fibers in a range of turbulence conditions.

free-space optical communication↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Statistical Analysis of Fading Power Vectors for Real-Time Atmospheric Channel Emulation

The design and testing of a free-space optical communication system requires assessment of the impact of random fluctuations in received power from a laser beam transmitted over an atmospheric channel. A number of methods for generating fading power vectors for in-lab emulation of an atmospheric channel have previously been reported. These techniques include spectral shaping and filtering of a signal from a normally distributed pseudo-random number generator, full wave optics simulations with random phase screens, and pre-recorded measurements from experimental free-space links. In this work, a statistical analysis of atmospheric fading is presented with the goal of producing a practical engineering model for the fading channel suitable for generating synthetic fade vectors in real-time for long-duration receiver testing with channel interleaving. Specifically, a parametric model is developed for turbulence-induced fade on space-to-ground links with large-aperture receivers, including aperture-averaging and the effects of aperture size on the instantaneous coupling efficiency for mode-limited receivers. In particular, we analyze the probability density function and temporal power spectrum for fluctuations of the coupling efficiency for few-mode fibers in a range of turbulence conditions.

free-space optical communication↗
NASA NTRS2012

SureTrak Probability of Impact Display

The SureTrak Probability of Impact Display software was developed for use during rocket launch operations. The software displays probability of impact information for each ship near the hazardous area during the time immediately preceding the launch of an unguided vehicle. Wallops range safety officers need to be sure that the risk to humans is below a certain threshold during each use of the Wallops Flight Facility Launch Range. Under the variable conditions that can exist at launch time, the decision to launch must be made in a timely manner to ensure a successful mission while not exceeding those risk criteria. Range safety officers need a tool that can give them the needed probability of impact information quickly, and in a format that is clearly understandable. This application is meant to fill that need. The software is a reuse of part of software developed for an earlier project: Ship Surveillance Software System (S4). The S4 project was written in C++ using Microsoft Visual Studio 6. The data structures and dialog templates from it were copied into a new application that calls the implementation of the algorithms from S4 and displays the results as needed. In the S4 software, the list of ships in the area was received from one local radar interface and from operators who entered the ship information manually. The SureTrak Probability of Impact Display application receives ship data from two local radars as well as the SureTrak system, eliminating the need for manual data entry.

Elliott, John↗
NASA NTRS1994

Whistler mode waves in the Jovian magnetosheath

During the Ulysses flyby of Jupiter in February 1992, the spacecraft traversed the Jovian magnetosheath for a few hours during the inbound pass and for aa few days during the outbound pass. Burstlike electomagnetic waves at frequencies of approximately 0.1-0.4 of the local electron cyclotron frequency have been observed by the Unified Radio and Plasma Wave (URAP) experiement. The waves were more often observed in the regions which were probably the outer or the middle magnetosheath, especially near the bow shock, and rarely seen in the magnetosphere/magnetosheath boundary layer. The propagation angles of the waves are estimated by comparing the measurements of the wave electric and magnetic fields in the spacecraft spin plane with the corresponding values calculated using the cold plasma dispersion relation under local field and plasma conditions. It is found that the waves propagate obliquely with wave angles between approximately 30 deg and 50 deg. These waves are likely to be the whistler mode waves which are excited by suprathermal electrons with a few hundred eV and a slight anisotropy (T(sub perp)/T(sub parallel) approximately 1.1-1.5). They are probably similar in nature to the lion roars observed in the Earth's magnetosheath. Signature of coupling between the mirror and the whistler mode have also been observed. The plasma conditions which favor the excitation of the whistler mode instability during the wave events exists as observed by the plasma experiement of Ulysses.

Lin, Naiguo↗
NASA NTRS1959

Investigation of the Stability of Very Flat Spins and Analysis of Effects of Applying various Moments Utilizing the Three Moment Equations of Motion

Based on linearized equations of motion utilizing only the three moment equations and assuming only flat-spin conditions, it appears that contemporary designs (with the moment of inertia about the wing axis I(sub Y) considerably greater than the moment of inertia about the fuselage axis I(sub X) having positive values of C(sub l, sub p) (rolling-moment coefficient due to rolling) or positive values of C(sub l, sub beta) (rolling-moment coefficient due to sideslip) will probably not have a stable spin in the flat-spin region near an angle of attack of 90 deg. If the damping in pitch in flat-spin attitudes is zero, stable flat-spin conditions may not be possible on an airplane having the mass primarily distributed along the wings. The effect of moving ailerons with the spin or the effect of applying a positive pitching moment producing recovery for contemporary fighter designs will be greatest for large negative values of C(sub n, sub beta) (yawing-moment coefficient due to sideslip). In addition, for a certain critical value of positive C(sub n, sub beta), the rolling moment applied by moving ailerons with the spin or the application of a positive pitching moment will have no effect on reducing the spin rate.

Klinar, Walter J.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Bayesian Retrieval of Complete Posterior PDFs of Oceanic Rain Rate From Microwave Observations

This paper presents a new Bayesian algorithm for retrieving surface rain rate from Tropical Rainfall Measurements Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) over the ocean, along with validations against estimates from the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR). The Bayesian approach offers a rigorous basis for optimally combining multichannel observations with prior knowledge. While other rain rate algorithms have been published that are based at least partly on Bayesian reasoning, this is believed to be the first self-contained algorithm that fully exploits Bayes Theorem to yield not just a single rain rate, but rather a continuous posterior probability distribution of rain rate. To advance our understanding of theoretical benefits of the Bayesian approach, we have conducted sensitivity analyses based on two synthetic datasets for which the true conditional and prior distribution are known. Results demonstrate that even when the prior and conditional likelihoods are specified perfectly, biased retrievals may occur at high rain rates. This bias is not the result of a defect of the Bayesian formalism but rather represents the expected outcome when the physical constraint imposed by the radiometric observations is weak, due to saturation effects. It is also suggested that the choice of the estimators and the prior information are both crucial to the retrieval. In addition, the performance of our Bayesian algorithm is found to be comparable to that of other benchmark algorithms in real-world applications, while having the additional advantage of providing a complete continuous posterior probability distribution of surface rain rate.

Chiu, J. Christine↗
NASA NTRS2022

Guidebook for Assessing Similarity and Implementing Empirical Transfer Functions for Probability of Detection (POD) Demonstrations for Signal Based Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) Methods

This document provides guidance for assessing similarity relative to nondestructive evaluation (NDE) detectability based on Probability of Detection demonstrations when comparing different NDE inspection situations. Differences in inspection situations addressed by the similarity assessment methodology herein can include differences in the component being inspected, and differences in the conditions for the inspection. Additional differences in the inspection situation relative to differences in the method or procedure are not addressed in this document but can be assessed using NDE calibration or instrument standardization specimens.

Probability of Detection↗
NASA NTRS2022

Discrete Aurora on the Nightside of Mars: Occurrence Location and Probability

This paper represents the first attempt to predict the occurrence location and probability of discrete electron aurora on the nightside of Mars. We run a 3-D time-dependent magnetohydrodynamic model to characterize the spatial and temporal dynamics of magnetic field and plasma distributions over the course of one planetary rotation. We perform eight simulation cases under solar minimum quiet-solar-wind conditions (four equinox/solstice seasons, each with two interplanetary magnetic field polarities) and in an actual interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) case to assess quiet and space weather situations, respectively. The occurrence of detectable discrete aurora is subject to the combination of the probabilities that (a) the ionosphere is magnetically connected with high altitudes through open field lines and (b) precipitating energy fluxes of >30 eV electrons exceed 0.1 erg/cm2/s. Our results show that during quiet solar activity, discrete aurora occurs likely on small-scale patches embedded inside strong crustal magnetic field regions (with a magnitude greater than 50 nT at 150 km), and the overall chance across the globe is ∼0.77%. The higher probability over strong crustal field regions is attributed to the stronger magnetic field convergence. Modeling shows the occurrence probability dramatically increases during the ICME event, particularly by more than an order of magnitude in weak crustal field regions. Our model results reasonably agree with NASA Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN and Mars Express observations. Our study suggests that nightside discrete electron aurora is not caused by the direct entry of magnetosheath plasma in a cusp-like process but due to the recycling of nightside magnetospheric electrons.

Xiaohua Fang↗
NASA NTRS1979

Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE). Evaluation of the LACIE transition year crop calendar model

The author has identified the following significant results. The estimates of developmental stage dates from the LACIE adjustable crop calendar (ACC) winter wheat model was somewhat more accurate than the historical crop calendar after jointing. The ACC winter wheat model was not so accurate for the Texas Panhandle as it was for the other areas of the USPG-7 because dry soil conditions delayed fall planting in the Panhandle. Since the LACIE ACC winter wheat model does not contain a moisture term and it was started with historical planting dates, lengthy delays in planting mean that the ACC model will probably be started early and will estimate the developmental growth stages to occur too early in the season. The LACIE ACC spring wheat model was also started early in most areas because of late planting due to fields wet from melting snow and rain. The starter model used to estimate spring planting dates was not accurate under these wet soil conditions and tended to predict the developmental stages to occur earlier than the dates observed in the fields.

Cheffin, R. E.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Heterogeneous reactions of HNO3(g) + NaCl(s) yields HCl(g) + NaNO3(s) and N2O5(g) + NaCl(s) yields ClNO2(g) + NaNO3(s)

The heterogeneous reactions of HNO3(g) + NaCl(s) yields HCl(g) + NaNO3(s) (eq 1) and N2O5(g) + NaCl(s) yields ClNO2(g) + NaNO3(S) (eq 2) were investigated over the temperature range 223-296 K in a flow-tube reactor coupled to a quadrupole mass spectrometer. Either a chemical ionization mass spectrometer (CIMS) or an electron-impact ionization mass spectrometer (EIMS) was used to provide suitable detection sensitivity and selectivity. In order to mimic atmospheric conditions, partial pressures of HNO3 and N2O5 in the range 6 x 10(exp -8) - 2 x 10(exp -6) Torr were used. Granule sizes and surface roughness of the solid NaCl substrates were determined by using a scanning electron microscope. For dry NaCl substrates, decay rates of HNO3 were used to obtain gamma(1) = 0.013 +/- 0.004 (1sigma) at 296 K and > 0.008 at 223 K, respectively. The error quoted is the statistical error. After all corrections were made, the overall error, including systematic error, was estimated to be about a factor of 2. HCl was found to be the sole gas-phase product of reaction 1. The mechanism changed from heterogeneous reaction to predominantly physical adsorption when the reactor was cooled from 296 to 223 K. For reaction 2 using dry salts, gamma(2) was found to be less than 1.0 x 10(exp -4) at both 223 and 296 K. The gas-phase reaction product was identified as ClNO2 in previous studies using an infrared spectrometer. An enhancement in reaction probability was observed if water was not completely removed from salt surfaces, probably due to the reaction of N2O5(g) + H2O(s) yields 2HNO3(g). Our results are compared with previous literature values obtained using different experimental techniques and conditions. The implications of the present results for the enhancement of the hydrogen chloride column density in the lower stratosphere after the El Chichon volcanic eruption and for the chemistry of HCl and HNO3 in the marine troposphere are discussed.

Leu, Ming-Taun↗
NASA NTRS1981

An investigation of the neutral and ionized gas in M16

An attempt is made to understand the physical and kinematic conditions in the M16 active star formation site, by means of mapping observations of neutral and ionized hydrogen and observations of (C-12)O from selected positions within the H II regions. The 21-cm maps suggest that at least two neutral clouds are present in the M16 complex, one of which is likely to be the remains of the cloud in which star formation initially occurred, and the other is probably the cold gas remaining from a disrupted cloud edge where the ionization front has crossed the cloud-intercloud boundary. Multislit echelle spectra of the H-alpha line are obtained to determine the physical conditions within the ionized gas, and H-alpha maps show that the ionized gas is systematically blueshifted in the east and splits into two streams in the southwest.

Mufson, S. L.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Some questions of an optimum probability synthesis of dynamic metalworking machine systems

Attempts were made to develop a dynamic metal working machine tool system using probability information on external factors and independent disturbances of the parameters. The problem was optimized in two stages: (1) creation of mathematical models under conditions determined by input influences, and (2) processing the results of calculations obtained on such models. Data were obtained on the patterns of distribution of dynamic quality characteristics of the tool, vibration frequencies and amplitudes, attenuation coefficients, and duration of a transition process. These data were obtained using a digital computer, statistical test methods, or logical possibility trees.

Dobrynin, S. A.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Can spores survive in interstellar space?

Experimental evidence is presented for the effects of very low temperature and UV radiation, characteristic of the interstellar medium, on the survival of bacteria. In the most general space environment, 10 percent survival times are only of the order of hundreds of years, too short for panspermia to work. In a substantial fraction of space within dark clouds, however, it is shown that, even with conservative figures, survival times as long as millions to tens of millions of years are attainable. In such conditions, clouds could transport organisms from one solar system to another in times significantly shorter than the mean survival time. This occurs with significant probability.

Weber, P.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Modeling and equalization of nonlinear bandlimited satellite channels

The problem of modeling and equalization of a nonlinear satellite channel is considered. The channel is assumed to be bandlimited and exhibits both amplitude and phase nonlinearities. A discrete time satellite link is modeled under both uplink and downlink white Gaussian noise. Under conditions of practical interest, a simple and computationally efficient design technique for the minimum mean square error linear equalizer is presented. The bit error probability and some numerical results for a binary phase shift keyed (BPSK) system demonstrate that the proposed equalization technique outperforms standard linear receiver structures.

Konstantinides, K.↗
NASA NTRS1988

A method for modeling bias in a person's estimates of likelihoods of events

It is of practical importance in decision situations involving risk to train individuals to transform uncertainties into subjective probability estimates that are both accurate and unbiased. We have found that in decision situations involving risk, people often introduce subjective bias in their estimation of the likelihoods of events depending on whether the possible outcomes are perceived as being good or bad. Until now, however, the successful measurement of individual differences in the magnitude of such biases has not been attempted. In this paper we illustrate a modification of a procedure originally outlined by Davidson, Suppes, and Siegel (3) to allow for a quantitatively-based methodology for simultaneously estimating an individual's subjective utility and subjective probability functions. The procedure is now an interactive computer-based algorithm, DSS, that allows for the measurement of biases in probability estimation by obtaining independent measures of two subjective probability functions (S+ and S-) for winning (i.e., good outcomes) and for losing (i.e., bad outcomes) respectively for each individual, and for different experimental conditions within individuals. The algorithm and some recent empirical data are described.

Nygren, Thomas E.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Shield sizing and response equations

A consolidated list is presented of meteoroid debris shield equations which have been given in the referenced memorandums. In some cases, equations have been updated; thus, this memorandum supersedes reference 1. The equations are presented in two parts: (1) shield sizing equations which are used to produce preliminary estimates of shielding weights; and (2) response equations to describe the impact conditions (projectile size as a function of velocity, density, and impact angle) causing failure of a given shield that are to be used for probability analyses (such as in the modified BUMPER program). Specific equations are given that are applicable for the following types of shields: aluminum Whipple shields; Nextel multishock (MS) shields; and mesh double bumper (MDB) shields. These equations will be updated in the future as warranted by the results of additional HVI tests, analyses, and shield modeling.

Christiansen, Eric L.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Interference effects on Space Station Freedom and space shuttle orbiter Ku-band downlinks

The space shuttle orbiter (SSO) and Ku-band single access return (KSAR) link and the Space Station Freedom (SSF) KSAR link via the tracking and data relay satellite system (TDRSS) use the same carrier frequency. The interference between spacecraft is minimized by opposite antenna polarizations and by TDRSS antenna beam pointing, but if the SSF and SSO are in close proximity, it is expected that mutual interference will be significant. Recently, Tsang and Su (1988, 1989) simulated the mutual interference effects, using a practical nonlinear bandlimited channel. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that a simplified (i.e., linear band-limited channel) analytical approach will yield adequate accuracy for the expected range of operating conditions. Relative degradation in bit energy-to-thermal noise power spectral density ratio to achieve a 10 exp -5 coded bit-error-probability is determined to be 4 dB for the Ku-band SSO-to-TDRS I-channel return link with a 4.5 dB effective signal-to-interference total power ratio (S/I) when the Ku-band SSF-to-TDRS return link interferes, whereas Su's simulation yields approximately 5 dB degradation. For the Ku-band SSF-to-TDRS return link, both analysis and simulation results yield a relative signal degradation of 0.4 dB at the effective S/I = 21.6 dB. In conclusion, interference on the Ku-band SSO-to-TDRS I-channel return link is significant, but on the Ku-band SSF-to-TDRS return link it is negligible.

Kwon, Hyuck M.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Flowfield characteristics in a liquid propellant rocket

Measurements of LOX drop size and velocity in a uni-element liquid propellant rocket chamber are presented. The use of the Phase Doppler Particle Analyzer in obtaining temporally averaged probability density functions of drop size in a harsh rocket environment has been demonstrated. Complementary measurements of drop size/velocity for simulants under cold flow conditions are also presented. The drop size/velocity measurements made for combusting and cold flow conditions are compared, and the results indicate that there are significant differences in the two flowfields.

Pal, S.↗