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At least 667 records · Page 37

Exploring Sensitivity of ICF Outputs to Design Parameters in Experiments Using Machine Learning

We report building a sustainable burn platform in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) requires an understanding of the complex coupling of physical processes and the effects that key experimental design changes have on implosion performance. While simulation codes are used to model ICF implosions, incomplete physics and the need for approximations deteriorate their predictive capability. Identification of relationships between controllable design inputs and measurable outcomes can help guide the future design of experiments and development of simulation codes, which can potentially improve the accuracy of the computational models used to simulate ICF implosions. In this article, we leverage developments in machine learning (ML) and methods for ML feature importance/sensitivity analysis to identify complex relationships in ways that are difficult to process using expert judgment alone. We present work using random forest (RF) regression for prediction of yield, velocity, and other experimental outcomes given a suite of design parameters, along with an assessment of important relationships and uncertainties in the prediction model. We show that RF models are capable of learning and predicting on ICF experimental data with high accuracy, and we extract feature importance metrics that provide insight into the physical significance of different controllable design inputs for various ICF design configurations. These results can be used to augment expert intuition and simulation results for optimal design of future ICF experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Lunar Pole Illumination and Communications Maps Computed from GSSR Elevation Data

A Digital Elevation Model of the lunar south pole was produced using Goldstone Solar System RADAR (GSSR) data obtained in 2006.12 This model has 40-meter horizontal resolution and about 5-meter relative vertical accuracy. This Digital Elevation Model was used to compute average solar illumination and Earth visibility with 100 kilometers of the lunar south pole. The elevation data were converted into local terrain horizon masks, then converted into lunar-centric latitude and longitude coordinates. The horizon masks were compared to latitude, longitude regions bounding the maximum Sun and Earth motions relative to the moon. Estimates of Earth visibility were computed by integrating the area of the region bounding the Earth's motion that was below the horizon mask. Solar illumination and other metrics were computed similarly. Proposed lunar south pole base sites were examined in detail, with the best site showing yearly solar power availability of 92 percent and Direct-To-Earth (DTE) communication availability of about 50 percent. Similar analysis of the lunar south pole used an older GSSR Digital Elevation Model with 600-meter horizontal resolution. The paper also explores using a heliostat to reduce the photovoltaic power system mass and complexity.

lunar base↗

Volumetrically-Derived Global Navigation Satellite System Performance Assessment from the Earths Surface through the Terrestrial Service Volume and the Space Service Volume

NASA is participating in the International Committee on Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) (ICG)'s efforts towards demonstrating the benefits to the space user from the Earth's surface through the Terrestrial Service Volume (TSV) to the edge of the Space Service Volume (SSV), when a multi-GNSS solution space approach is utilized. The ICG Working Group: Enhancement of GNSS Performance, New Services and Capabilities has started a three phase analysis initiative as an outcome of recommendations at the ICG-10 meeting, in preparation for the ICG-11 meeting. The first phase of that increasing complexity and fidelity analysis initiative was recently expanded to compare nadir-facing and zenith-facing user hemispherical antenna coverage with omnidirectional antenna coverage at different distances of 8,000 km altitude and 36,000 km altitude. This report summarizes the performance using these antenna coverage techniques at distances ranging from 100 km altitude to 36,000 km to be all encompassing, as well as the volumetrically-derived system availability metrics.

Global Positioning System↗

Software and System Health Management with R2U2

R2U2 (Realizable, Responsive, Unobtrusive Unit) is a hardware-supported tool and framework for the real-time system and software health management of cyber-physical systems. R2U2 continuously monitors properties about safety, performance, and security of the vehicle and can perform diagnostic reasoning. Efficient observers for past-time and future-time Metric Temporal Logic, reasoners for Bayesian Networks, and model-based prognostics algorithms are major components of R2U2. Their combination makes it possible to design powerful models for system runtime monitoring, diagnostics, software health management, prognostics, and security monitoring. The R2U2 monitoring engine is designed for minimal runtime overhead and is available as Simulink block or as a software component for integration into the flight software stack, and enables R2U2 to monitor complex cyber-physical systems without any instrumentation of the flight software. In this presentation, we give an overview of R2U2 architecture and reasoning algorithms, present its features, and give a life demo of the tool.

Schumann, Johann↗

IMPACTing Medical System Design with a Risk Analysis Tool [“IMPACT” sur la Conception du Système Médical avec un Outil d'Analyse des Risques]

Background: Following the success of Artemis I, NASA is preparing for human extended duration missions. Ongoing efforts are focused on mitigating mission-related risks, including those affecting crew health and performance. Communication latency, logistics of resupply and time frame of medical evacuation are barriers to provision of healthcare for these missions, especially with respect to constraints in mass, volume, and crew training. An in-depth assessment of medical risks, capabilities and resources for a specific mission design is necessary to determine an optimal balance that maximizes likelihood of mission success. Overview: IMPACT (Informed Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a dynamic tool designed to estimate medical risk and outcomes for a specific mission design. In its current iteration, a list of medical conditions selected based on likelihood of occurrence and/or consequence was linked to a set of clinical capabilities and resources necessary for diagnosis and management. A probabilistic risk analysis tool was then used to identify and estimate the likelihood and consequence of risks through the following outcome metrics: loss of crew life (inflight mortality due to medical conditions), need for medical evacuation (return to definitive care), and crew disability (task time affected based on how medical conditions influence the ability to perform specific exploration mission crew tasks). Finally, the model’s optimization algorithm provides recommendations for medical capabilities that maximize risk mitigation relative to mass and volume constraints. In the Spring of 2023, IMPACT was utilized to estimate outcome metrics for a design reference mission that would be representative of an extended duration Artemis mission. Notional data generated were then used to determine a recommended set of medical capabilities and resources relative to user-defined mass and volume constraints. A multidisciplinary team has also been updating IMPACT to strengthen the model’s fidelity. Figure 1 shows how updates to outcome metric inputs for the conditions resulted in different capability and resource allocation recommendations. Discussion: This presentation will discuss the IMPACT tool and share the latest data generated for a representative extended duration Artemis mission. Efforts to improve the fidelity of data generated by the model’s algorithm will also be discussed.

K A Shair↗

IMPACTing Medical System Design with a Risk Analysis Tool

Background: Following the success of Artemis I, NASA is preparing for human extended duration missions. Ongoing efforts are focused on mitigating mission-related risks, including those affecting crew health and performance. Communication latency, logistics of resupply and time frame of medical evacuation are barriers to provision of healthcare for these missions, especially with respect to constraints in mass, volume, and crew training. An in-depth assessment of medical risks, capabilities and resources for a specific mission design is necessary to determine an optimal balance that maximizes likelihood of mission success. Overview: IMPACT (Informed Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a dynamic tool designed to estimate medical risk and outcomes for a specific mission design. In its current iteration, a list of medical conditions selected based on likelihood of occurrence and/or consequence was linked to a set of clinical capabilities and resources necessary for diagnosis and management. A probabilistic risk analysis tool was then used to identify and estimate the likelihood and consequence of risks through the following outcome metrics: loss of crew life (inflight mortality due to medical conditions), need for medical evacuation (return to definitive care), and crew disability (task time affected based on how medical conditions influence the ability to perform specific exploration mission crew tasks). Finally, the model’s optimization algorithm provides recommendations for medical capabilities that maximize risk mitigation relative to mass and volume constraints. In the Spring of 2023, IMPACT was utilized to estimate outcome metrics for a design reference mission that would be representative of an extended duration Artemis mission. Notional data generated were then used to determine a recommended set of medical capabilities and resources relative to user-defined mass and volume constraints. A multidisciplinary team has also been updating IMPACT to strengthen the model’s fidelity. Figure 1 shows how updates to outcome metric inputs for the conditions resulted in different capability and resource allocation recommendations. Discussion: This presentation will discuss the IMPACT tool and share the latest data generated for a representative extended duration Artemis mission. Efforts to improve the fidelity of data generated by the model’s algorithm will also be discussed.

K A Shair↗

Deep learning on the 2-dimensional Ising model to extract the crossover region with a variational autoencoder

The 2-dimensional Ising model on a square lattice is investigated with a variational autoencoder in the non-vanishing field case for the purpose of extracting the crossover region between the ferromagnetic and paramagnetic phases. The encoded latent variable space is found to provide suitable metrics for tracking the order and disorder in the Ising configurations that extends to the extraction of a crossover region in a way that is consistent with expectations. The extracted results achieve an exceptional prediction for the critical point as well as agreement with previously published results on the configurational magnetizations of the model. The performance of this method provides encouragement for the use of machine learning to extract meaningful structural information from complex physical systems where little a priori data is available.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Demonstration of Algorithmic Quantum Speedup

Despite the development of increasingly capable quantum computers, an experimental demonstration of a provable algorithmic quantum speedup employing today’s non-fault-tolerant devices has remained elusive. Here, in this study, we unequivocally demonstrate such a speedup within the oracular model, quantified in terms of the scaling with the problem size of the time-to-solution metric. We implement the single-shot Bernstein-Vazirani algorithm, which solves the problem of identifying a hidden bitstring that changes after every oracle query, using two different 27-qubit IBM Quantum superconducting processors. The speedup is observed on only one of the two processors when the quantum computation is protected by dynamical decoupling but not without it. The quantum speedup reported here does not rely on any additional assumptions or complexity-theoretic conjectures and solves a bona fide computational problem in the setting of a game with an oracle and a verifier.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Factors Influencing Building Demand Flexibility

The U.S. Department of Energy’s National Roadmap for Grid-interactive Efficient Buildings (GEB) acknowledged that building demand flexibility (DF) is both an important strategy to decarbonizing the buildings sector and an important resource for meeting the changing needs of the electrical grid such as improving grid reliability. However, understanding the complexity and uncertainties in real building field performance of DF strategies is a large gap hindering stakeholders on both grid and buildings side to make investments on deploying such strategies. The research work in this report intended to advance understanding of the variability and influential factors in building demand flexibility. Adding such knowledge based on lab testing results and measured performance data from real buildings is an important contribution. The report uses standardized metrics and methods to quantify DF performance from field-measured DF datasets of two significant building groups of big-box retail and medium office buildings to present the challenge of building DF variability in multiple dimensions. The report presents findings related to how several key factors influence building demand flexibility from implementing a common, cost-effective DF control strategy (i.e., adjusting zone temperatures). The findings are supported by full-scale lab testing, field data analysis and simulation research. The authors also provided application-oriented recommendations to stakeholders such as building aggregators, utility program design professionals, sophisticated building portfolio owners, and more.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Validation of the High-Resolution Salish Sea Tidal Hydrodynamic Model

In this study, a tidal hydrodynamic model was developed and validated to simulate tidal currents in Puget Sound, Washington, to support tidal energy resource characterization using the unstructured-grid, Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM). The Salish Sea tidal hydrodynamic model was driven by tides along two open boundaries at the entrance of the Strait of Juan de Fuca and north end of Georgia Strait, and river flows from 19 major rivers in the Salish Sea. To simulate the tidal current in Puget Sound, a high-resolution model grid is required to accurately represent the complex coastlines and bathymetry. The spatial resolution of the model grid varies from ~10 m near river boundaries and ~30 m in small tidal channels and estuaries to near 1000 m inside Georgia Strait and at the open boundaries. Model validation was carried out by comparing simulated and observed water levels at 12 tidal stations and currents at 135 Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler stations in the model domain. A set of model performance metrics, including root mean square error, scatter index, bias, and linear correlation coefficient, were used to quantify the model skills in simulating the tidal hydrodynamics in Puget Sound. Error statistics showed an overall good agreement between simulated and observed tidal elevations and currents, which demonstrated that the Puget Sound tidal model can be used to accurately characterize the tidal stream energy resource in Puget Sound.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Oversizing and Part-Load Problems

Oversizing, the common engineering practice of specifying devices with capacity exceeding the actual load requirement, is a widespread practice across virtually all building technologies end-use categories, including HVAC, electrical systems, lighting, appliances, and plug loads. This practice, driven by factors like design uncertainty, institutional pressures, and risk aversion, results in wasted capital investment, control difficulties, and excessive energy consumption due to inefficient part-load operation. Part-load operation, where devices run below maximum capacity, is the dominant operating mode in most energy systems and presents a complex design challenge. Solutions to match output to load fall into three broad categories: constraining the output, adjusting the device’s internal behavior, and linking output to energy storage or other waste-heat reuse applications. The energy implications of part-load are critical, as efficiency often drops sharply as load decreases across a wide diversity of devices. To quantify the extent of this problem, we derive a dimensionless Part-Load Metric (PLM) based on device efficiency and its frequency distribution of operating hours at various output levels. The PLM quantifies the deviation of a device's actual efficiency from its maximum design efficiency. This metric also serves as a measure of "capital inefficiency," enabling engineers to compare the impact of different part-load solutions and providing a unified framework for evaluating performance across various devices and systems.

Meier, Alan↗

Structural Life and Reliability Metrics: Benchmarking and Verification of Probabilistic Life Prediction Codes

Over the past two decades there has been considerable effort by NASA Glenn and others to develop probabilistic codes to predict with reasonable engineering certainty the life and reliability of critical components in rotating machinery and, more specifically, in the rotating sections of airbreathing and rocket engines. These codes have, to a very limited extent, been verified with relatively small bench rig type specimens under uniaxial loading. Because of the small and very narrow database the acceptance of these codes within the aerospace community has been limited. An alternate approach to generating statistically significant data under complex loading and environments simulating aircraft and rocket engine conditions is to obtain, catalog and statistically analyze actual field data. End users of the engines, such as commercial airlines and the military, record and store operational and maintenance information. This presentation describes a cooperative program between the NASA GRC, United Airlines, USAF Wright Laboratory, U.S. Army Research Laboratory and Australian Aeronautical & Maritime Research Laboratory to obtain and analyze these airline data for selected components such as blades, disks and combustors. These airline data will be used to benchmark and compare existing life prediction codes.

Litt, Jonathan S.↗

Improved Representation of Horizontal Variability and Turbulence in Mesoscale Simulations of an Extended Cold-Air Pool Event

Abstract Cold-air pools (CAPs), or stable atmospheric boundary layers that form within topographic basins, are associated with poor air quality, hazardous weather, and low wind energy output. Accurate prediction of CAP dynamics presents a challenge for mesoscale forecast models in part because CAPs occur in regions of complex terrain, where traditional turbulence parameterizations may not be appropriate. This study examines the effects of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme and horizontal diffusion treatment on CAP prediction in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Model runs with a one-dimensional (1D) PBL scheme and Smagorinsky-like horizontal diffusion are compared with runs that use a new three-dimensional (3D) PBL scheme to calculate turbulent fluxes. Simulations are completed in a nested configuration with 3-km/750-m horizontal grid spacing over a 10-day case study in the Columbia River basin, and results are compared with observations from the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project. Using event-averaged error metrics, potential temperature and wind speed errors are shown to decrease both with increased horizontal grid resolution and with improved treatment of horizontal diffusion over steep terrain. The 3D PBL scheme further reduces errors relative to a standard 1D PBL approach. Error reduction is accentuated during CAP erosion, when turbulent mixing plays a more dominant role in the dynamics. Last, the 3D PBL scheme is shown to reduce near-surface overestimates of turbulence kinetic energy during the CAP event. The sensitivity of turbulence predictions to the master length-scale formulation in the 3D PBL parameterization is also explored. Significance Statement In this article, we demonstrate how a new framework for modeling atmospheric turbulence improves cold pool predictions, using a case study from January 2017 in the Columbia River basin (U.S. Pacific Northwest). Cold pools are regions of cold, stagnant air that form within valleys or basins, and improved forecasts could help to mitigate the risks they pose to air quality, transportation, and wind energy production. For the chosen case study, our tests show a reduction in temperature and wind speed errors by up to a factor of 2–3 relative to standard model options. These results strongly motivate continued development of the framework as well as its application to other complex weather events.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Network Theory: A Primer and Questions for Air Transportation Systems Applications

A new understanding (with potential applications to air transportation systems) has emerged in the past five years in the scientific field of networks. This development emerges in large part because we now have a new laboratory for developing theories about complex networks: The Internet. The premise of this new understanding is that most complex networks of interest, both of nature and of human contrivance, exhibit a fundamentally different behavior than thought for over two hundred years under classical graph theory. Classical theory held that networks exhibited random behavior, characterized by normal, (e.g., Gaussian or Poisson) degree distributions of the connectivity between nodes by links. The new understanding turns this idea on its head: networks of interest exhibit scale-free (or small world) degree distributions of connectivity, characterized by power law distributions. The implications of scale-free behavior for air transportation systems include the potential that some behaviors of complex system architectures might be analyzed through relatively simple approximations of local elements of the system. For air transportation applications, this presentation proposes a framework for constructing topologies (architectures) that represent the relationships between mobility, flight operations, aircraft requirements, and airspace capacity, and the related externalities in airspace procedures and architectures. The proposed architectures or topologies may serve as a framework for posing comparative and combinative analyses of performance, cost, security, environmental, and related metrics.

Holmes, Bruce J.↗

NASA's Space Launch System Transitions From Design To Production

NASA's Space Launch System (SLS) successfully completed its Critical Design Review (CDR) in 2015, a major milestone on the journey to an unprecedented era of exploration for humanity. CDR formally marked the program's transition from design to production phase just four years after the program's inception and the first such milestone for a human launch vehicle in 40 years. While challenges typical of a complex development program lie ahead, CDR evaluators concluded that the design is technically and programmatically sound and ready to press forward to Design Certification Review (DCR) and readiness for launch of Exploration Mission 1 (EM-1) in the 2018 timeframe. SLS is prudently based on existing propulsion systems, infrastructure and knowledge with a clear, evolutionary path as required by mission needs. In its initial configuration, designated Block 1, SLS will a minimum of 70 metric tons (t) (154,324 pounds) of payload to low Earth orbit (LEO). It will evolve to a 130 t (286,601 pound) payload capacity by upgrading its engines, boosters, and upper stage, dramatically increasing the mass and volume of human and robotic exploration while decreasing mission risk, increasing safety, and simplifying ground and mission operations. CDR was the central programmatic accomplishment among many technical accomplishments that will be described in this paper. The government/industry SLS team successfully test-fired a flight-like five-segment solid rocket motor, as well as seven hotfire development tests of the RS-25 core stage engine. The majority of the major test article and flight barrels, rings, and domes for the core stage liquid oxygen, liquid hydrogen, engine section, intertank, and forward skirt were manufactured at NASA's Michoud Assembly Facility in New Orleans, Louisiana. Renovations to the B-2 test stand for stage green run testing were completed at NASA's Stennis Space Center (SSC), near Bay St. Louis, Mississippi. Core stage test stands are reaching completion at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama. The modified Pegasus barge for core stage transportation from manufacturing to testing and launch sites was delivered to SSC. The Interim Cryogenic Propulsion System test article was also completed. This paper will discuss these and other technical and programmatic successes and challenges over the past year and provide a preview of work ahead before the first flight of this new capability.

Askins, Bruce R.↗

NASA's Space Launch Transitions: From Design to Production

NASA's Space Launch System (SLS) successfully completed its Critical Design Review (CDR) in 2015, a major milestone on the journey to an unprecedented era of exploration for humanity. CDR formally marked the program's transition from design to production phase just four years after the program's inception and the first such milestone for a human launch vehicle in 40 years. While challenges typical of a complex development program lie ahead, CDR evaluators concluded that the design is technically and programmatically sound and ready to press forward to Design Certification Review (DCR) and readiness for launch of Exploration Mission 1 (EM-1) in the 2018 timeframe. SLS is prudently based on existing propulsion systems, infrastructure and knowledge with a clear, evolutionary path as required by mission needs. In its initial configuration, designated Block I, SLS will a minimum of 70 metric tons (t) of payload to low Earth orbit (LEO). It can evolve to a 130 t payload capacity by upgrading its engines, boosters, and upper stage, dramatically increasing the mass and volume of human and robotic exploration while decreasing mission risk, increasing safety, and simplifying ground and mission operations. CDR was the central programmatic accomplishment among many technical accomplishments that will be described in this paper. The government/industry SLS team successfully test fired a flight-like five-segment solid rocket motor, as well as seven hotfire development tests of the RS-25 core stage engine. The majority of the major test article and flight barrels, rings, and domes for the core stage liquid oxygen, liquid hydrogen, engine section, intertank, and forward skirt were manufactured at NASA's Michoud Assembly Facility. Renovations to the B-2 test stand for stage green run testing were completed at NASA Stennis Space Center. Core stage test stands are rising at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. The modified Pegasus barge for core stage transportation from manufacturing to testing and launch sites was delivered. The Interim Cryogenic Propulsion System test article was also completed. This paper will discuss these and other technical and programmatic successes and challenges over the past year and provide a preview of work ahead before the first flight of this new capability.

Askins, Bruce↗

Progressive Damage Mechanisms in Thick 3D Composite Structures under Static and Fatigue Loading

The objective of this work is to demonstrate validation of predictive capabilities capturing both damage initiation and growth under static and fatigue loading in geometrically complex three-dimensional (3D) composite structures. The composite structure of interest in the present study resembles a 3D blade spar used in rotorcraft applications. Under both static and fatigue testing, it was shown that damage initiated at the same ply-drop location(s) and grew in the axial as well as hoop directions. CompDam – a state-of-the-art Progressive Damage Analysis (PDA) tool was used to achieve successful correlations of metrics including load-displacement responses and damage modes.

progressive damage analysis↗

FunMC^2: A Filter for Uncertainty Visualization of Marching Cubes on Multi-Core Devices

Visualization is an important tool for scientists to extract understanding from complex scientific data. Scientists need to understand the uncertainty inherent in all scientific data in order to interpret the data correctly. Uncertainty visualization has been an active and growing area of research to address this challenge. Algorithms for uncertainty visualization can be expensive, and research efforts have been focused mainly on structured grid types. Further, support for uncertainty visualization in production tools is limited. In this paper, we adapt an algorithm for computing key metrics for visualizing uncertainty in Marching Cubes (MC) to multi-core devices and present the design, implementation, and evaluation for a Filter for uncertainty visualization of Marching Cubes on Multi-Core devices (FunMC2). FunMC2 accelerates the uncertainty visualization of MC significantly, and it is portable across multi-core CPUs and GPUs. Evaluation results show that FunMC2 based on OpenMP runs around 11× to 41× faster on multi-core CPUs than the corresponding serial version using one CPU core. FunMC2 based on a single GPU is around 5× to 9× faster than FunMC2 running by OpenMP. Moreover, FunMC2 is flexible enough to process ensemble data with both structured and unstructured mesh types. Furthermore, we demonstrate that FunMC2 can be seamlessly integrated as a plugin into ParaView, a production visualization tool for post-processing.

Wang, Jay↗