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At least 667 records · Page 37

A multi-product landscape life-cycle assessment approach for evaluating local climate mitigation potential

Increasing demand for land-based climate mitigation requires more efficient management of agricultural landscapes for competing objectives. Here we develop methods for assessing trade-offs and synergies between intensification and carbon-sequestering conservation measures in annual crop production landscapes using the DayCent ecosystem model and the Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Technologies (GREET) life-cycle assessment (LCA) model. We compiled county-scaled crop yields, fertilizer application rates, and tillage intensity for a corn–soybean farming case study landscape in the US state of Iowa. Using DayCent, we estimated a baseline soil organic carbon (SOC) accrual rate of 0.29 Mg C ha -1 y -1 driven by historical increases in crop productivity and reductions in tillage intensity. We then simulated the effects of management interventions targeted toward intensification (stover removal) and SOC sequestration (tillage intensity reduction and winter cover crop addition) individually and in combination. We propose a new multi-product landscape–LCA approach that analyzes marginal changes in corn grain, corn stover, and soybean production from the landscape in terms of their value for biofuel production (corn ethanol, soy biodiesel, and cellulosic ethanol from stover) and associated net displacement of conventional fossil-derived fuel use. This enables us to evaluate both intensification and sequestration effects in common CO 2 -equivalent mitigation units. We also used DayCent-simulated yields under the different land management scenarios to estimate farm-level costs and revenues. Our results show that intensification via collecting 30% of corn stover for biofuel production would increase the total greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potential of this landscape by 0.93 Mg CO 2 e ha -1 y -1 and provide $49 ha -1 y -1 of additional net revenue from biomass sales, but would reduce the baseline SOC accumulation rate by approximately 40%. In contrast, integrated approaches that include co-adoption of winter cover cropping and/or tillage intensity reduction would result in increased rates of SOC accumulation above the baseline, achieving simultaneous improvements in both farm profits and the overall GHG mitigation potential of the landscape.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Restoring Soil Fertility on Degraded Lands to Meet Food, Fuel, and Climate Security Needs via Perennialization

A continuously growing pressure to increase food, fiber, and fuel production to meet worldwide demand and achieve zero hunger has put severe pressure on soil resources. Abandoned, degraded, and marginal lands with significant agricultural constraints—many still used for agricultural production—result from inappropriately intensive management, insufficient attention to soil conservation, and climate change. Continued use for agricultural production will often require ever more external inputs such as fertilizers and herbicides, further exacerbating soil degradation and impeding nutrient recycling and retention. Growing evidence suggests that degraded lands have a large potential for restoration, perhaps most effectively via perennial cropping systems that can simultaneously provide additional ecosystem services. Here we synthesize the advantages of and potentials for using perennial vegetation to restore soil fertility on degraded croplands, by summarizing the principal mechanisms underpinning soil carbon stabilization and nitrogen and phosphorus availability and retention. We illustrate restoration potentials with example systems that deliver climate mitigation (cellulosic bioenergy), animal production (intensive rotational grazing), and biodiversity conservation (natural ecological succession). Perennialization has substantial promise for restoring fertility to degraded croplands, helping to meet future food security needs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Applying Deep Learning for Wildfire Identification: Economical and Accessible Solutions Leveraging Small Datasets

Wildfires significantly impact human health, air quality, visibility, weather, and climate change and cause substantial economic losses. While state and county-operated air quality monitors provide critical insights during wildfires, they are not available in all regions. This highlights the need for affordable, accessible tools that allow the general public to assess air quality impacts. In this study, we apply machine learning with deep neural networks to diagnose air quality rapidly from sky images taken at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory in Richland, WA, USA. Using a convolutional neural network (CNN) framework, we trained a deep learning model to classify air quality indices based on sky images. By leveraging transfer learning, our approach fine-tunes a pre-trained model on a small dataset of sky images, significantly reducing training time while maintaining high accuracy. Our results demonstrate the potential of deep learning to provide rapid air quality diagnostics during wildfire episodes, offering early warnings to the public and enabling timely mitigation strategies, particularly for vulnerable populations. Additionally, we show that lower respiratory infections pose the highest health risk during acute smoke exposures. Reactive oxygen species (ROS) from wildfire particles further exacerbate health risks by triggering inflammation and other adverse effects.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Real-Time Testbed for Smart Inverter Cyber Security Studies

Distributed energy resources (DER) have become a popular solution to modern-day issues surrounding the efficiency and reliability of power generation, as well as climate change concerns. Energy centers are shifting towards incorporating smart inverters with embedded functionalities such as high voltage ride through (HVRT), low voltage ride through (LVRT), active and reactive power compensation. However, the integration of smart inverters leave DER systems highly vulnerable to cybersecurity threats. The distributed network protocol 3 (DNP3) is a common method of communication between grid-tied hardware. Despite its popularity, the level of security leaves all hardware connected to the grid at risk of severe cyber-attacks. Thus, it is important to study any potential cybersecurity threats towards grid-tied smart inverters to mitigate cybersecurity vulnerabilities and refine existing cyber-security protections. This report describes the proposed testbed design to study cybersecurity threats to smart inverters. The testbed utilizes a real-time simulation case in RSCAD that includes a grid-tied wind turbine (WT) topology featuring two back-to-back two-level voltage source converters (BTB,2L-VSCs) and a permanent magnet synchronous machine (PMSM). The simulated case runs within the NovaCor real time digital simulator (RTDS). This report focuses on the design and implementation of a single module of the GTNETx2 card as a distributed network protocol and the configuration of an IEEE 1518 DNP database file that includes input and output variables mapped to different connection points in the grid that transmit and receive discrete, analog, and binary signals on command. This allows realistic emulation of the communication between the smart inverter and the grid for cybersecurity studies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Envelope-driven comfort risk in residential demand response

Residential demand response (DR) is a valuable resource for grid reliability, but remains challenging because the highly heterogeneous residential building stock leads to widely varying and hard-to-predict load and comfort responses during DR events. Although prior research has estimated the technical potential of DR-capable technologies for achieving energy demand savings, little is known about how they affect thermal comfort. In particular, it remains unclear how indoor thermal conditions due to DR depend on the thermal envelope characteristics of the housing stock. To address this gap, this study provides a systematic, location-specific assessment of indoor thermal performance during DR-events across the US housing stock using both typical DR weather data and detailed building metadata. We evaluate how envelope characteristics influence indoor temperatures during realistic simulated summer and winter DR events across 37 US locations, applying both temperature threshold and rate of temperature change criteria to estimate region-level probabilities of discomfort. Additionally, we show the impact of distinct weather patterns that intensify or abate thermal stress on comfort outcomes. Results show a near-universal overheating risk in summer DR events, where comfort outcomes are strongly influenced by rapid risk of comfort violations. In contrast, overall winter DR discomfort risk is lower, risk escalation is more gradual and shows greater sensitivity to event duration. These findings offer a data-driven quantification of comfort risk across diverse climates and building envelopes, demonstrating the need for region-specific DR scheduling and discomfort mitigation strategies tailored to local weather patterns and the performance of existing residential buildings.

Demand response↗

Multi-scale Multi-physics Scientific Machine Learning for Water Cycle Extreme Events Identification, Labelling, Representation, and Characterization

Impacts of climate are usually felt through extreme events such as droughts, floods, thunderstorms, windstorms, wildfires, and so on, that are intimately tied to the water cycle. Predicting the frequency and severity of extreme events under climate change remains a significant challenge; meanwhile, the mechanisms and impacts of these extremes are far from well understood. There are several major science challenges: (1) Lack of labelled extreme events data and missing standards in defining extremes; (2) Computational demand of high-resolution ensemble climate modeling; (3) Modeling the multiscale multi-physics hierarchical structure of compound extremes; (4) Lack of understanding of mechanisms of extreme events; (5) Large uncertainty in extreme events impacts on infrastructure; (6) Subjective assessment of weather-related risk from seasonal to multi-decadal time scales and lack of metrics for risk assessment and mitigation control.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Long-term decarbonization impacts on residential energy security across income groups and US states

Abstract The impact of a transition to a net-zero economy on the residential energy sector across diverse income groups in the US remains uncertain. Here, we employ an integrated human-Earth system model, incorporating an expanded set of ten income groups in the residential energy sector, to examine the distributional impacts of long-term decarbonization scenarios on residential energy security at the state level through 2050. We use multiple metrics of energy security, including energy burden, energy satiation gap, and the distribution of energy service across income groups. Our findings show that the net-zero decarbonization scenarios affect residential energy security differently across income groups, with low-to-mid-income groups experiencing larger negative impacts on the dimensions studied here. Comparatively, climate change impact on residential energy security is minor through 2050 based on our model outcomes. Specifically, the net-zero decarbonization scenarios lead to increased energy burden across all income groups and states in 2050, where the lowest (highest) income group in each state shows an average of 0.6 (0.2) percentage point increase in energy burden, relative to the business-as-usual in 2050. The distribution of energy service consumption across income groups is also slightly more skewed under these scenarios. As incomes grow across all deciles in the future, residential energy security generally improves through 2050. Targeted interventions could mitigate the disproportionate impacts that some groups could incur under a transition to a net-zero economy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Experimental study of a thermal energy storage-integrated heat pump system for load shifting in space cooling and heating

This study experimentally investigates an all-season thermal energy storage-integrated heat pump (TES-HP) system developed to enhance building energy efficiency and support grid-interactive operation through load shifting in both cooling and heating. A 4-ton commercial rooftop air-source heat pump was modified by integrating a hydronic thermal energy storage (TES) unit containing a phase change material (PCM) with a melting temperature of 22.0 °C. The system employs two reversing valves and three electronic expansion valves to enable six operating modes, including normal, TES charging, and TES discharging in both cooling and heating seasons. A subcooling-controlled electronic expansion valve was implemented to mitigate refrigerant maldistribution caused by unequal internal volumes among the heat exchangers. Compared with a baseline heat pump, the TES-HP reduced power consumption by 30–50% during cooling at an ambient temperature of 40.6 °C, and by up to 60% during heating at −15.0 °C, while maintaining high performance under cold-climate conditions. Additionaly to experimental evaluation, a simplified annualized on-peak analysis was conducted to compare the TES-HP with the baseline system, indicating an on-peak electricity reduction of approximately 876 kWhₑ per unit per year and associated on-peak cost savings under time-of-use pricing. These results demonstrate that the TES-HP effectively decouples HP operation from adverse ambient conditions, improving flexibility, resilience, and energy efficiency. This work advances prior research by experimentally proving the integration of PCM-based TES for a year-round, load-flexible HVAC operation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Impact of prescribed fire on soil microbial communities in a Southern Appalachian Forest clear-cut

Escalating wildfire frequency and severity, exacerbated by shifting climate patterns, pose significant ecological and economic challenges. Prescribed burns, a common forest management tool, aim to mitigate wildfire risks and protect biodiversity. Nevertheless, understanding the impact of prescribed burns on soil and microbial communities in temperate mixed forests, considering temporal dynamics and slash fuel types, remains crucial. Our study, conducted at the University of Tennessee Forest Resources AgResearch and Education Center in Oak Ridge, TN, employed controlled burns across various treatments, and the findings indicate that low-intensity prescribed burns have none or minimal short-term effects on soil parameters but may alter soil nutrient concentrations, as evidenced by significant changes in porewater acetate, formate, and nitrate concentrations. These burns also induce shifts in microbial community structure and diversity, with Proteobacteria and Acidobacteria increasing significantly post-fire, possibly aiding soil recovery. In contrast, Verrucomicrobia showed a notable decrease over time, and other specific microbial taxa correlated with soil pH, porewater nitrate, ammonium , and phosphate concentrations. Our research contributes to understanding the intricate relationships between prescribed fire, soil dynamics, and microbial responses in temperate mixed forests in the Southern Appalachian Region, which is valuable for informed land management practices in the face of evolving environmental challenges.

Microbiology↗

Assessing thermal resilience of an assisted living facility during heat waves and cold snaps with power outages

Extreme hot and cold weather events are becoming more frequent, intense, and longer due to climate change. When these events occur coincidentally with power outages, the resulting extreme indoor temperatures pose a severe health hazard for occupants. This study conducted a holistic modeling and analysis of an assisted living facility, where senior residents live, to assess its thermal resilience performance under a six-day heat wave in 2015 and a three-day cold snap in 2021 with power outages. Impacts of 13 energy efficiency measures on thermal resilience and backup power capacity of the facility were evaluated. Three thermal resilience metrics: the SET (standard effective temperature) degree-hours, the Heat Index, and the Hours of Safety, were used and calculated from the EnergyPlus simulation models. Furthermore, major findings are: (1) the facility would suffer from extreme temperatures during the cold and hot events without a power supply, not meeting the passive survivability requirements; (2) most passive envelope measures improve thermal resilience for both hot and cold events, but making the building envelope airtight results in conflicting performance between the hot and cold events; (3) natural ventilation is an effective measure to mitigate summer indoor overheating; and (4) the energy efficiency package can reduce backup power capacity by 19% for the three-day cold snap. It is recommended that building technologies and design strategies be evaluated to consider co-benefits of energy use, thermal resilience, and backup power needs through building energy codes or policies for existing and new buildings, which are transitioning for decarbonization and climate resilience.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Implementation and Evaluation of Emission‐Driven Land‐Atmosphere Coupled Simulation in E3SMv2.1

Emissions-driven (prognostic CO 2 ) simulations are essential for representing two-way carbon-climate feedback in Earth System Models. We present an emissions-driven land–atmosphere coupled biogeochemistry (BGC) configuration (BGCLNDATM_progCO2) in version 2.1 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv2.1). This is the first E3SM configuration that performs land-atmosphere emission-hindcasts. Here, we document its implementation, evaluate the model's performance against observations and other models, and propose a structured evaluation protocol for such emissions-driven simulations. We conducted transient historical simulations (1850–2014) with BGCLNDATM_progCO2 and compare them to reference simulations—a land-atmosphere coupled simulation without BGC and a standalone land simulation with BGC, both using prescribed CO 2 concentrations—and to observations. BGCLNDATM_progCO2 overestimates atmospheric CO 2 concentrations by 11–23 ppm yet stays within the 40-ppm spread CMIP6 emission-driven models and retains physical climate properties comparable to the reference runs. The CO 2 biases are partly attributed to underrepresented oceanic CO 2 uptake and inadequate representations of some terrestrial processes. In general, introducing prognostic CO 2 did not change physical climate metrics at the global scale but had larger regional effects, particularly over land where spatially heterogeneous CO 2 and prognostic leaf area index influenced surface energy balance. Finally, we propose a general evaluation protocol including spin-up assessment, atmospheric CO 2 benchmarking, physical climate evaluation, and land biogeochemical analysis to support scientific rigor and facilitate inter-model comparisons. The new configuration lays the groundwork for future enhancements, including improved terrestrial biogeochemical processes, integrated marine biogeochemistry, and additional human–Earth system interactions. These developments advance E3SM toward fully coupled emissions-driven simulations, enabling more accurate carbon–climate feedback projections and informing mitigation policy by providing physically consistent carbon-budget metrics for mitigation scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Large Ensemble Exploration of Global Energy Transitions Under National Emissions Pledges

Global climate goals require a transition to a deeply decarbonized energy system. Meeting the objectives of the Paris Agreement through countries' nationally determined contributions and long-term strategies represents a complex problem with consequences across multiple systems shrouded by deep uncertainty. Robust, large-ensemble methods and analyses mapping a wide range of possible future states of the world are needed to help policymakers design effective strategies to meet emissions reduction goals. This study contributes a scenario discovery analysis applied to a large ensemble of 5,760 model realizations generated using the Global Change Analysis Model. Eleven energy-related uncertainties are systematically varied, representing national mitigation pledges, institutional factors, and techno-economic parameters, among others. The resulting ensemble maps how uncertainties impact common energy system metrics used to characterize national and global pathways toward deep decarbonization. Results show globally consistent but regionally variable energy transitions as measured by multiple metrics, including electricity costs and stranded assets. Larger economies and developing regions experience more severe economic outcomes across a broad sampling of uncertainty. The scale of CO 2 removal globally determines how much the energy system can continue to emit, but the relative role of different CO 2 removal options in meeting decarbonization goals varies across regions. Previous studies characterizing uncertainty have typically focused on a few scenarios, and other large-ensemble work has not (to our knowledge) combined this framework with national emissions pledges or institutional factors. Our results underscore the value of large-ensemble scenario discovery for decision support as countries begin to design strategies to meet their goals.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Safety Compliance Verification of Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Exhaust

NREL has been developing compliance verification tools for allowable hydrogen levels prescribed by the Global Technical Regulation Number 13 (GTR-13) for hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs). As per GTR-13, FCEV exhaust is to remain below 4 vol% H2 over a 3-second moving average and shall not at any time exceed 8 vol% H2 and that this requirement is to be verified with an analyzer that has a response time of less than 300 ms. To be enforceable, a means to verify regulatory requirements must exist. In response to this need, NREL developed a prototype analyzer that meets the GTR metrological requirements for FCEV exhaust analysis. The analyzer was tested on a commercial fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) under simulated driving conditions using a chassis dynamometer at the Emissions Research and Measurement Section of Environment and Climate Change Canada and FCEV exhaust was successfully profiled. Although the prototype FCEV Exhaust Analyzer met the metrological requirements of GTR-13, the stability of the hydrogen sensor was adversely impacted by condensed water in the sample gas. FCEV exhaust is at an elevated temperature and nearly saturated with water vapor. Furthermore, condensed water is present in the form of droplets. Condensed water in the sample gas can collect on the hydrogen sensing element, which would not only block access of hydrogen to the sensor but can also permanently damage the sensor. In the past year, the design of the gas sampling system was modified to mitigate against the transport of liquid water to the sensing element. Laboratory testing confirmed the effectiveness of the modified sampling system water removal strategy while maintaining the measurement range and response time required by GTR-13. Testing of the upgraded analyzer design on an FCEV operating on a chassis dynamometer is scheduled for the summer of 2021.

DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION,HYDROGEN↗

Emergent constraints on future methane emissions from global wetlands

Future methane (CH 4 ) emissions from natural wetlands are predicted to increase due to global warming, leading to positive feedback on climate change. However, the magnitude of this increase remains highly uncertain. Here we present novel ensemble simulations of seven state-of-the-art terrestrial biosphere models to estimate wetland CH 4 emissions (eCH 4 ) during the twenty-first century. Our estimates suggest that for every 1 °C increase in global land surface temperature, there is a 24 ± 10 Tg CH 4 yr −1 increase in eCH 4 . We also identify an emergent relationship between contemporary temperature dependence and projected eCH 4 . When constrained by 163 site-year eddy-covariance measurements of eCH 4 , we show that wetland emissions can increase by 50–60% by the 2090s relative to the 2010s under a high-warming scenario. The projected decadal increase in eCH 4 from the 2010–2019 baseline to the 2030s would very likely (90% probability) offset an amount equivalent in scale to 8–10% of anthropogenic eCH 4 at the 2020 level, comparable to the reductions committed under the Global Methane Pledge. However, the constraint is dominated by mid- and high-latitude observations, with limited tropical coverage, and uncertainties in projected wetland inundation contribute substantially to uncertainty in eCH 4 . Our findings reduce the uncertainty in projected wetland methane–climate feedback and highlight its potential impacts on methane mitigation efforts to slow global warming.

Zhang, Zhen [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Be↗

Controlling Product Selectivity in Photochemical CO 2 Reduction with the Redox Potential of the Photosensitizer

The ability to selectively reduce CO 2 to a particular product or mixture of products is expected to play a key role in mitigation strategies aiming to alleviate the devastating impact of this greenhouse gas in our climate and oceans. Among those, the production of liquid solar fuels from CO 2 and H 2 O will likely need cascade strategies involving multiple catalysts carrying out different functions. This will require that the catalysts doing the initial CO 2 reduction steps deliver the right product or products to downstream catalysts. CO, H 2 and formate are the most common products in CO 2 reduction by molecular catalysts. Here, in this work, we demonstrate control over the selectivity of C 1 products in photochemical CO 2 reduction with the same catalyst, simply by changing the redox potential of the photosensitizer and/or the water concentration. Turnover numbers for CO generation with one of the photosensitizers under anhydrous conditions reached 85,000, one of the largest values reported to date. A combination of experimental results and DFT calculations show that control of the selectivity is achieved, in part, due to the interplay between regimes under kinetic or thermodynamic control. These regimes are largely dictated by the proton sources and the CO 2 reduction byproducts generated.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The role of negative emissions in meeting China’s 2060 carbon neutrality goal

China’s pledge to reach carbon neutrality before 2060 is an ambitious goal and could provide the world with much-needed leadership on how to limit warming to +1.5°C warming above preindustrial levels by the end of the century. But the pathways that would achieve net zero by 2060 are still unclear, including the role of negative emissions technologies. We use the Global Change Analysis Model to simulate how negative emissions technologies, in general, and direct air capture (DAC) in particular, could contribute to China’s meeting this target. Our results show that negative emissions could play a large role, offsetting on the order of 3 GtCO 2 per year from difficult-to-mitigate sectors, such as freight transportation and heavy industry. This includes up to a 1.6 GtCO 2 per year contribution from DAC, constituting up to 60% of total projected negative emissions in China. But DAC, like bioenergy with carbon capture and storage and afforestation, has not yet been demonstrated anywhere approaching the scales required to meaningfully contribute to climate mitigation. Deploying NETs at these scales will have widespread impacts on financial systems and natural resources, such as water, land and energy in China.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ideas and perspectives: Enhancing research and monitoring of carbon pools and land-to-atmosphere greenhouse gases exchange in developing countries

Carbon (C) and greenhouse gas (GHG) research has traditionally required data collection and analysis using advanced and often expensive instruments, complex and proprietary software, and highly specialized research technicians. Partly as a result, relatively little C and GHG research has been conducted in resource-constrained developing countries. At the same time, these are often the same countries and regions in which climate change impacts will likely be strongest and in which major science uncertainties are centered, given the importance of dryland and tropical systems to the global C cycle. Increasingly, scientific communities have adopted appropriate technology and approach (AT&A) for C and GHG research, which focuses on low-cost and low-technology instruments, open-source software and data, and participatory and networking-based research approaches. Adopting AT&A can mean acquiring data with fewer technical constraints and lower economic burden and is thus a strategy for enhancing C and GHG research in developing countries. However, AT&A can have higher uncertainties; these can often be mitigated by carefully designing experiments, providing clear protocols for data collection, and monitoring and validating the quality of obtained data. For implementing this approach in developing countries, it is first necessary to recognize the scientific and moral importance of AT&A. At the same time, new AT&A techniques should be identified and further developed. All these processes should be promoted in collaboration with local researchers and through training local staff and encouraged for wide use and further innovation in developing countries.

Kim, Dong-Gill↗

Solar Photovaltaics Durability and Resilience - A Win-Win

Solar photovoltaics (PV) will play a crucial role in decarbonizing the electrical grid and limit the effects of detrimental climate change. Long lifetimes of PV installations are a win-win situation, as it not only reduces carbon emissions directly through avoidance of fossil fuel emissions but also indirectly, as it reduces the demand of needed materials and potentially recycling. However, during their decades-long lifetime expectations installations are also more commonly exposed to extreme weather events. Building durable solar system to withstand extreme weather events is essential in the electrification of the economy and will save lives, particularly when they power critical infrastructure such as hospitals. As more PV is installed in regions prone to extreme weather events, high-quality materials, installation and monitoring practices can mitigate risk. Evaluating resilience requires combined computational, analytical, and experimental capabilities that are best leveraged by teams working across multiple disciplines.

durability↗