Results for “attribution” — Page 37

DOE OSTI2021

Weather and Random Forest-based Load Profiling Approximation Models and its Transferability across Climate Zones

This study is to provide predictive understanding of the associations of various weather attributes with residential and commercial load profiles, for a variety of climate zones and seasons. In this work, machine learning (ML) approaches were used to identify and quantify the impacts of various weather attributes on residential and commercial electricity demand and its components across the western United States. Performance and transferability of the developed ML models were then evaluated across different temperate zones (e.g., southern, middle, and northern US) and across coastal, mid-continent, and wet zones, with inputs of weather condition data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) at representative weather stations. The predictive models were developed based on the ranked/screened factors using the regression tree (RT) and random forest (RF) approaches, for five different scenarios (seasons).

load composite, Random Forest, regression tree, lo↗

DOE OSTI2021

Bio-project “derisking” through development of systematic methodologies and frameworks for risk assessment

One of the primary hindrances to producing a viable, sustainable domestic biomass industry for renewable biofuels, bio-products and bio-power is the lack of understanding and quantification of the risks associated with both the biomass supply chain and preprocessing and conversion technologies. Currently a consistent method for assessing, comparing, and quantifying risks in biomass supply chains does not exist, creating a major investment barrier to bioenergy projects in the U.S. The lack of a standardized approach has resulted in bioenergy stakeholders independently using inconsistent approaches and evaluation criteria, leading to unreliable and incomparable assessments of risks and financing barriers to bio-project development. Along with the challenges of inconsistent risk assessment for supply chain risk, technology specific risks based on variability in biomass properties are not fully understood and can pose significant unforeseen challenges for bioenergy projects. In many cases these properties have not yet been identified and the impacts on the proposed technology and products unquantified. This is particularly challenging for emerging preprocessing and conversion technologies. Without a firm understanding of the preprocessing/conversion technology-specific critical properties, the risk of a proposed bio-project cannot be fully evaluated. To address inconsistent risk evaluation in the biomass supply chain supporting project financing, a Biomass Supply Chain Risk Standards (BSCRS) framework was developed. The BSCRS framework includes a comprehensive list of known and perceived risks (Risk Indicators) to the supply chain developed through 100’s of interviews with bioenergy industry experts spanning from feedstock growers and suppliers to representatives from the financial sector. These risks have been organized into a manageable hierarchy of Risk Categories and Risk Factors that can be practically assessed. This BSCRS framework also provides mitigation strategies for multiple Risk Indicators from best available industry practices and research findings. Additionally, a risk quantification methodology for each Risk Factor, Risk Category, and the bio-project as a whole was developed to enable capital markets to assess feedstock risk more efficiently and more accurately. Multiple case studies representing existing bio-projects have been used to evaluate and verify the BSCRS framework and scoring methodology. To address technological risk along with the supply chain risk captured in the developed BSCRS framework, this work also focuses on development of a systematic criticality assessment tool using well-accepted, quantitative risk analysis methods to evaluate bioenergy feedstock critical properties impacting system unit operations. The proposed Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) approach uses a team of subject area experts (SAEs) for each targeted unit operation within a system. Collectively, the team will develop and use a quantitative scoring system to assess the material attributes, process parameters, and quality attributes for key unit operations that have already been identified. The FMEA process generates Risk Priority Numbers (RPNs) for the various failures and predominant causes for each material/process unit/product combination resulting in a semi-quantitative, standardized methodology for assessing technological risk and biomass properties contributing to that risk.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Taxonomic Classification Approach for Global Spatio-temporal Data

The World Bank, World Health Organization, and other major vendors collectively provide thousands of global time series datasets that focus on issues of the environment, public health, economics, violence, education, and national security. Sorting these data into meaningful information requires the use of data mining techniques to cluster trends into an orderly and manageable number of cases. The World SpatioTemporal Analytics and Mapping (WSTAMP) project database (wstamp.ornl.gov) was developed to spatiotemporally harmonize global vendor data (23,300+ attributes, 200+ locations, 50+ years). Within the WSTAMP analytical environment, Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) has been a highly effective data-driven approach for clustering and mapping these time series into national spatiotemporal behavior maps. Two significant properties have surfaced from this work. First, several recognizable cluster patterns have emerged and persist across a range of locations, attributes, and time frames (e.g., increasing, decreasing, rebounding, peak, oscillating). Secondly, practitioners engaging WSTAMP have noted the explanatory and anticipatory value of these patterns and articulated particular interest in detecting them within the spatiotemporal cube. This need was addressed by shifting DTW-based clustering from an open ended, data-driven implementation to a taxonomic pattern matching approach. This paper presents the method including implementation strategies for visualization and human computer interaction and applies the approach to a sample data set and concludes with next steps.

Stewart, Robert↗

DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty Quantification of Bifacial Performance Modeling

Analysis on uncertainty in the annual energy of PV systems that can be attributed to parameters of particular importance to bifacial PV modules is presented. Monte Carlo simulations are used to evaluate the effect of uncertain module bifaciality factors, module transmission fractions, albedo values, and ground clearance. The analyses cover a wide spectrum of potential PV array archetypes through variation of installation parameters. The results of the Monte Carlo analysis reveal that the uncertainty is largely dependent on albedo uncertainty, but more simulations are needed to identify trends across system archetypes. The simulations are aimed at attributing an annual energy uncertainty factor for bifacial considerations that can be applied in post-processing of project probability of exceedance analysis.

bifacial↗

DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty Quantification of Bifacial Performance Modeling: Preprint

Analysis on uncertainty in the annual energy of PV systems that can be attributed to parameters of particular importance to bifacial PV modules is presented. Monte Carlo simulations are used to evaluate the effect of uncertain module bifaciality factors, module transmission fractions, albedo values, and ground clearance. The analyses cover a wide spectrum of potential PV array archetypes through variation of installation parameters. The results of the Monte Carlo analysis reveal that the uncertainty is largely dependent on albedo uncertainty, but more simulations are needed to identify trends across system archetypes. The simulations are aimed at attributing an annual energy uncertainty factor for bifacial considerations that can be applied in post-processing of project probability of exceedance analysis.

energy modeling↗

DOE OSTI2022

Locating underground features with seismic data processing

Methods are presented for determining the location of underground features (e.g., CO 2 ). One method includes capturing, by sensors distributed throughout a region, seismic traces associated with seismic signals generated by a seismic source. For multiple sensors, active noise is identified or passive noise is measured within each seismic trace and values for attributes associated with the active or passive noise are determined. Further, an unsupervised machine-learning model, based on the values of the attributes, is utilized to determine noise characteristics for multiple sensors. The sensors are grouped in clusters based on the noise characteristics for each sensor. For multiple clusters, a noise filter is created based on the noise characteristics of the sensors in the cluster, and the noise filter of the cluster is applied, for multiple sensors, to the seismic traces of the sensor. Additionally, the filtered seismic traces are analyzed to determine a location of CO 2 underground.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Failure Mode and Effects Analysis Summary Report

This report provides an overview of the development of failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and its implementation as a systematic criticality and risk assessment tool supporting a quality by design (QbD) approach for FCIC research. This report also provides a high-level overview of the results for the FMEA evaluation of two feedstock preprocessing system configurations: (1) generation of pine residue materials for high-temperature pyrolysis conversion and (2) generation of corn stover materials for low-temperature conversion using deacetylation and disc mechanical refining pretreatment for fermentation to hydrocarbons. For the results presented in this report, our FMEA interviews included two approaches. The first approach was to perform FMEA interviews for the entire system of unit operations giving a wholistic system level view. The second approach consisted of detailed interviews for each individual unit operation within the system allowing for a “deep dive” into the specific failures for the individual components within the configuration. These two approaches provide different resolutions of information. The FMEA results of this report were focused on failures associated with meeting critical quality attributes (CQAs) identified for the target conversion processes for each processed feedstock type. The information gathered through the FMEA interviews include estimations of risk scores for meeting each given CQA specification, identification of the impacts for not meeting a CQA specification, capturing causes associated with material attributes and process parameters for each failure, identification of current detection methods, and speculation of potential mitigation strategies for decreasing a failure’s risk score. The complete results of all FMEA interviews are provided in the Appendices of this report.

conversion↗

DOE OSTI2023

Failure Modes and Effects Analysis of Biorefinery Pathways

This talk provides an overview of failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) development and implementation as a systematic criticality and risk assessment tool for biorefinery pathways within the FCIC. This supports a quality by design (QbD) approach, and this talk provides a high-level overview of the results for the FMEA evaluation focused on the generation of pine residue materials for high-temperature pyrolysis conversion. the FMEA interviews included two approaches. The first approach was based around the entire system of unit operations giving a wholistic system level view. The second approach used detailed interviews from individual unit operation within the system allowing for specific failures for individual system components. These two approaches provide different resolutions of information about the reliability and risk. The FMEA results focused on failures associated with meeting critical quality attributes (CQAs) identified for the high temperature conversion of loblolly pine residues and were supplemented with experimental data supporting process upsets and reliability also collected within the consortium. Estimations of risk scores for meeting each given CQA specification, identification of the impacts for not meeting a CQA specification, capturing causes associated with material attributes and process parameters for each failure, identification of current detection methods, and speculation of potential mitigation strategies for decreasing a failure’s risk score were gathered through the FMEA interviews, and were combined to understand the overall process risk metrics and where technology, process, and knowledge improvements are needed in order to de-risk emerging biorefineries.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Refractory Wear Characterization in Lime Recovery Kilns

The industry standard for lime recovery kiln calcining zone refractories is 60% or 70% alumina brick. Rapid unexpected refractory wear in lime recovery kilns has often been attributed to excess alkali carryover in the lime kiln feed. Recent laboratory work attributes refractory wear to overheating and the lime charge fluxing the refractory. This paper corroborates this laboratory work with some case history post-mortem examinations of bricks removed from rotary lime kiln linings. The paper concludes with methods to manage refractory wear, including kiln burner performance.

Hemrick, James↗

DOE OSTI2023

Technology Strategy Assessment: Findings from Storage Innovations 2030 Supercapacitors

Electrochemical capacitors, which are commercially called supercapacitors or ultracapacitors, are a family of energy storage devices with remarkably high specific power compared with other electrochemical storage devices. Supercapacitors do not require a solid dielectric layer between the two electrodes, instead they store energy by accumulating electric charge on porous electrodes filled with an electrolyte solution and separated by an insulating porous membrane. Supercapacitors offer large specific capacitance and high power output. They can be charged and discharged very quickly, offer excellent cycle life and long operational life, and operate over a broad temperature range. The major drawbacks of supercapacitors are low energy density and a high self-discharge rate. For example, a supercapacitor passively discharges from 100% to 50% in a month compared with only 5% for a lithium-ion battery [1]. The high capital cost and low energy density of supercapacitors make the unit cost of energy stored ($/kWh) more expensive than alternatives such as batteries. Their attributes make them attractive for uses in which frequent small charges/discharges are required (e.g., ensuring power quality or providing frequency regulation). Their attributes and cost make them less attractive for long-duration energy storage, which favors technologies with low self-discharge that cost less per unit of energy stored.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

From Chills to Thrills: Revolutionizing Energy Efficiency and Load Flexibility in Supermarket Refrigeration

Open-vertical medium-temperature refrigerated display cases comprise nearly 50% of total case lineups in a typical supermarket, with more than 80% of their cooling load attributed to infiltration of warm and moist air from the surrounding space. The infiltration takes place across the air curtain system of the display case. While the air curtain acts as a thermal shield and as a cooling mechanism to maintain product temperature, it also entrains large amounts of heat and moisture from the adjacent space. Additionally, from food safety and quality standpoints, these fixtures are vulnerable to electric outages and traditionally cannot participate in load flexibility events. This paper describes key features of an innovative design of a self-contained, water-cooled, medium-temperature, open-vertical display case. The novel concept will eliminate the inefficient air curtain system and incorporate a hybrid radiant and low-airflow convective cooling design with a thermal-energy-storage-coupled heat exchanger integrated into the refrigeration circuit. The focus of this paper is on evaluating the thermal performance of the novel hybrid design in maintaining target product temperature. It presents thermal performance findings from thermo-fluid system modeling and robust state-of-the-art laboratory experiments used to validate those models. Load flexibility attributes from thermal energy storage are not discussed. A controlled-environment chamber at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory was leveraged to validate the thermal performance of the novel technology. Final results from bench-scale experiments indicate the proposed design maintained mean product temperatures within food safety guidelines.

commercial refrigeration↗

DOE OSTI2024

From Chills to Thrills: Revolutionizing Energy Efficiency and Load Flexibility in Supermarket Refrigeration: Preprint

Open-vertical medium-temperature refrigerated display cases comprise nearly 50% of total case lineups in a typical supermarket, with more than 80% of their cooling load attributed to infiltration of warm and moist air from the surrounding space. The infiltration takes place across the air curtain system of the display case. While the air curtain acts as a thermal shield and as a cooling mechanism to maintain product temperature, it also entrains large amounts of heat and moisture from the adjacent space. Additionally, from food safety and quality standpoints, these fixtures are vulnerable to electric outages and traditionally cannot participate in load flexibility events. This paper describes key features of an innovative design of a self-contained, water-cooled, medium-temperature, open-vertical display case. The novel concept will eliminate the inefficient air curtain system and incorporate a hybrid radiant and low-airflow convective cooling design with a thermal-energy-storage-coupled heat exchanger integrated into the refrigeration circuit. The focus of this paper is on evaluating the thermal performance of the novel hybrid design in maintaining target product temperature. It presents thermal performance findings from thermo-fluid system modeling and robust state-of-the-art laboratory experiments used to validate those models. Load flexibility attributes from thermal energy storage are not discussed. A controlled-environment chamber at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory was leveraged to validate the thermal performance of the novel technology. Final results from bench-scale experiments indicate the proposed design maintained mean product temperatures within food safety guidelines.

commercial refrigeration↗

DOE OSTI2024

Developing Multiphysics, Integrated, High-Fidelity, Massively Parallel Computational Capabilities for Fusion Applications Using MOOSE

As the need for fusion as a clean, sustainable, and abundant energy source grows internationally, so does the need for multiphysics, computational tools to model, study, and predict the complex interactions between plasma, materials, and engineering processes. These tools have a crucial role to play in solving scientific and engineering challenges and accelerating fusion energy deployment. To address these needs, modeling capabilities should enable massively parallel, multiphysics, fully integrated high-fidelity simulations of fusion systems. Additional attributes, such as being open source and modular while maintaining high software quality assurance standards will maximize impact by ensuring accessibility for all and wide acceptance, rapid expansion and development, as well as reliability, efficiency, and robustness. In this paper, we describe how the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework, which has a track record of success in the fission space thanks to the attributes listed above, can be leveraged in the fusion energy field. We highlight key successes of the MOOSE application in the fission space and describe how MOOSE has been and is being applied to fusion applications in the United States---e.g., Tritium Migration Analysis Program, version 8 (TMAP8), MOOSE Fusion Module, Fusion ENergy Integrated multiphys-X (FENIX)---and the United Kingdom---e.g., AURORA, Achlys, Apollo. These efforts aim to establish a suite of tools that can be further extended to accelerate fusion energy deployment.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Grid Interactive Micro-Distributed Refrigerated Display Case

Open-vertical medium-temperature refrigerated display cases comprise nearly 50% of total case lineups in a typical supermarket, with more than 80% of their cooling load attributed to infiltration of warm and moist air from the surrounding space. The infiltration takes place across the air curtain system of the display case. While the air curtain acts as a thermal shield and as a cooling mechanism to maintain product temperature, it also entrains large amounts of heat and moisture from the adjacent space. Additionally, from food safety and quality standpoints, these fixtures are vulnerable to electric outages and traditionally cannot participate in load flexibility events. This paper describes key features of an innovative design of a self-contained, water-cooled, medium-temperature, open-vertical display case. The novel concept will eliminate the inefficient air curtain system and incorporate a hybrid radiant and low-airflow convective cooling design with a thermal-energy-storage-coupled heat exchanger integrated into the refrigeration circuit. The focus of this paper is on evaluating the thermal performance of the novel hybrid design in maintaining target product temperature. It presents thermal performance findings from thermo-fluid system modeling and robust state-of-the-art laboratory experiments used to validate those models. Load flexibility attributes from thermal energy storage are not discussed. A controlled-environment chamber at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory was leveraged to validate the thermal performance of the novel technology. Final results from bench-scale experiments indicate the proposed design maintained mean product temperatures within food safety guidelines.

commercial refrigeration↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Impact of Cultural Values and Organizational Processes on Nuclear Security Operations

Human performance is a pivotal factor in the design, testing, maintenance, and operation of security systems. The effectiveness of these systems relies not only on the capabilities, limitations, motives, and attitudes of the individuals involved, but also on the quality of training, instructional content, and evaluation methods provided. To uphold security standards, seamless integration between technologies and operators necessitates reliable human input. In security operations, human errors, often attributed to blame, sanctions, low motivation, individual accountability, or complacency, are primary causes of system failures. Complacency, characterized by a false sense of security, reflects a lack of awareness of potential threats and is a significant contributing factor to lapses in security. Security incidents arise from various factors, many extend beyond individual control, highlighting the need for a holistic approach to human performance that integrates organizational processes and team collaboration. Historically, errors have been attributed to individual moral or cognitive failures. However, insights from Operational Experiences (OEs) suggest that organizational processes weakness and deficiencies in nuclear cultural values contribute more significantly to security failures than individual mistakes. This paper consolidates lessons learned from diverse international nuclear security cultures and aims to highlight the importance of security culture in shaping global perspectives on nuclear security. It underscores the role of cultural values in shaping nuclear security practices and enhancing the resilience of security systems in the nuclear sector.

Zineddin, Dr. Z. [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000848740725)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Novel Preprocessing Techniques for Enhancing Flowability of Miscanthus

Purpose-grown energy crops possess significant potential as promising feedstocks for biofuel and biochemical production. However, similar to other biomass feedstocks, their utilization has been hindered by handling and feeding challenges such as clogging and segregation, which prevent biorefineries from operating at full capacity. These challenges arise primarily due to particle attributes including irregular shape, high flexibility, and high compressibility, leading to interlocking, high compaction, and significant friction under stress consolidation. To enhance operational reliability, it is crucial to focus on preprocessing techniques to address these issues, alongside accurately characterizing the mechanical and physical properties and flow performance of these feedstocks. This study investigates novel preprocessing techniques, including pelletization and torrefaction, to fundamentally alter these particle attributes and improve flowability. Miscanthus, an herbaceous energy crop, was the primary focus of this study. Samples were processed using a Forest Concepts Crumbler rotary shear system and an oscillating multi-stack screen bed to achieve two nominal (baseline) particle sizes: 6mm and 2mm. The study evaluated the efficiency and energy consumption of size reduction, revealing that while 2mm particles required more energy, they exhibited better flowability and higher yield strength compared to 6mm particles. Shear and compression tests assessed the material's shear strength, internal friction, and elastic modulus, while wedge-shaped hopper tests measured the critical arching distance and mass flow rate. The results provide valuable insights into the mechanical properties and processing efficiency of Miscanthus, contributing to the development of a preprocessing framework that enhances energy efficiency and material flowability in bioenergy production. However, further preprocessing and development are required to optimize this framework fully.

09 - BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2026

CAD-VAE: Leveraging Correlation-Aware Latents for Comprehensive Fair Disentanglement

While deep generative models have significantly advanced representation learning, they may inherit or amplify biases and fairness issues by encoding sensitive attributes alongside predictive features. Enforcing strict independence in disentanglement is often unrealistic when target and sensitive factors are naturally correlated. To address this challenge, we propose CAD-VAE(Correlation-Aware Disentangled VAE), which introduces a correlated latent code to capture the information shared between the target and sensitive attributes. Given this correlated latent, our method effectively separates over-lapping factors without extra domain knowledge by directly minimizing the conditional mutual information between target and sensitive codes. A relevance-driven optimization strategy refines the correlated code by efficiently capturing essential correlated features and eliminating redundancy. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate that CAD-VAE produces fairer representations, realistic counterfactuals, and improved fairness-aware image editing.

Ma, Chenrui [University of California Irvine]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Exploration of Real Time Inference for MI-RR Deblending on GPU/TPU Systems

The Fermilab Main Injector (MI) and Recycler Ring (RR) share a common beam loss monitor (BLM) system, making loss events difficult to attribute to their source machine when beam is present in both simultaneously. The Real-time Edge AI for Distributed Systems (READS) project addresses this by deblending BLM readings in real time using machine learning (ML). The current FPGA based implementation meets the sub-3 ms latency requirement but carries a resource intensive hls4ml development cycle, motivating exploration of GPU based deployment. This paper characterizes inference latency on an NVIDIA Jetson Orin Nano and introduces a packet organization scheme for assembling synchronized event frames from seven distributed BLM DAQ streams. Using a Python based DAQ simulation with injected timing jitter in place of unavailable live beam data, the pipeline achieved an average end to end latency of 0.456 ms (σ = 0.122 ms) across 167,000 test frames, comfortably meeting the timing constraint. Early outliers were attributed to TensorRT warm-up rather than steady state limitations, suggesting GPU based inference is a viable alternative to the existing FPGA implementation.

Yu, Kellen [Fermilab; Cornell U.]↗