Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Yield Prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 667 records · Page 37
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2023

Evaluation of a Regional Crop Model Implementation for Sub-National Yield Assessments in Kenya

CONTEXT: Cropping system models can be used to both assess regional food security and to monitor and predict agricultural drought. Agriculture in Kenya is extremely important to both the economy and food security of the country. OBJECTIVE: This study evaluated a regional implementation of a widely used crop model, the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT), within a coupled modeling framework, the Regional Hydrologic Extremes Assessment System (RHEAS), over Kenya. The goal of this study was to assess the ability of RHEAS to simulate the annual variability of maize yields at the county level and evaluate the uncertainty inherent in the model and inputs. METHODS: The RHEAS system implements a stochastic ensemble approach to account for field scale variabilities in crop management practices and underlying soil and weather conditions. Satellite-derived datasets were used to evaluate the land surface component of the system and seasonally disaggregated yield for 5 years was used to assess the performance of the cropping system model. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The median correlation between RHEAS and satellite-derived soil moisture and evapotranspiration estimates were 0.78, and 0.51, respectively, indicating that the model is able to capture the key drivers of the hydrological budget. Overall, RHEAS simulated yearly yield variations with a median correlation of 0.7 with reported yields, with the best performance in the short rains season. However, across both seasons, the RHEAS model was positively biased on the order of ~1.6 MT/ha. The overall median unbiased RMSE was 0.66 MT/ha. The RHEAS system shows skill at simulating extreme departures in anomalies, and a majority of the time (62.5%) the reported yields fall within the interquartile range of the simulations. SIGNIFICANCE: One of the most important areas of improvement for the next generation of agricultural data and models is to better understand and communicate the inherent uncertainties. This is especially critical in data-limited regions. Here we present a modeling system and its implementation that begins to address these concerns. We demonstrate the ability to simulate broad trends in yields at the county level for sub-annual yields with skills that commensurate previous national/annual level studies.

Crop model↗
NASA NTRS1992

LAI inversion from optical reflectance using a neural network trained with a multiple scattering model

The inversion of the leaf area index (LAI) canopy parameter from optical spectral reflectance measurements is obtained using a backpropagation artificial neural network trained using input-output pairs generated by a multiple scattering reflectance model. The problem of LAI estimation over sparse canopies (LAI < 1.0) with varying soil reflectance backgrounds is particularly difficult. Standard multiple regression methods applied to canopies within a single homogeneous soil type yield good results but perform unacceptably when applied across soil boundaries, resulting in absolute percentage errors of >1000 percent for low LAI. Minimization methods applied to merit functions constructed from differences between measured reflectances and predicted reflectances using multiple-scattering models are unacceptably sensitive to a good initial guess for the desired parameter. In contrast, the neural network reported generally yields absolute percentage errors of <30 percent when weighting coefficients trained on one soil type were applied to predicted canopy reflectance at a different soil background.

Smith, James A.↗
NASA NTRS2013

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME): Phase-1 Seasonal to Interannual Prediction, Phase-2 Toward Developing Intra-Seasonal Prediction

The recent US National Academies report "Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability" was unequivocal in recommending the need for the development of a North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) operational predictive capability. Indeed, this effort is required to meet the specific tailored regional prediction and decision support needs of a large community of climate information users. The multi-model ensemble approach has proven extremely effective at quantifying prediction uncertainty due to uncertainty in model formulation, and has proven to produce better prediction quality (on average) then any single model ensemble. This multi-model approach is the basis for several international collaborative prediction research efforts, an operational European system and there are numerous examples of how this multi-model ensemble approach yields superior forecasts compared to any single model. Based on two NOAA Climate Test Bed (CTB) NMME workshops (February 18, and April 8, 2011) a collaborative and coordinated implementation strategy for a NMME prediction system has been developed and is currently delivering real-time seasonal-to-interannual predictions on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) operational schedule. The hindcast and real-time prediction data is readily available (e.g., http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.Models/.NMME/) and in graphical format from CPC (http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51yf/NMME/index.html). Moreover, the NMME forecast are already currently being used as guidance for operational forecasters. This paper describes the new NMME effort, presents an overview of the multi-model forecast quality, and the complementary skill associated with individual models.

NOAA CPC↗
NASA NTRS1980

An interaction algorithm for prediction of mean and fluctuating velocities in two-dimensional aerodynamic wake flows

A theoretical analysis is presented yielding sets of partial differential equations for determination of turbulent aerodynamic flowfields in the vicinity of an airfoil trailing edge. A four phase interaction algorithm is derived to complete the analysis. Following input, the first computational phase is an elementary viscous corrected two dimensional potential flow solution yielding an estimate of the inviscid-flow induced pressure distribution. Phase C involves solution of the turbulent two dimensional boundary layer equations over the trailing edge, with transition to a two dimensional parabolic Navier-Stokes equation system describing the near-wake merging of the upper and lower surface boundary layers. An iteration provides refinement of the potential flow induced pressure coupling to the viscous flow solutions. The final phase is a complete two dimensional Navier-Stokes analysis of the wake flow in the vicinity of a blunt-bases airfoil. A finite element numerical algorithm is presented which is applicable to solution of all partial differential equation sets of inviscid-viscous aerodynamic interaction algorithm. Numerical results are discussed.

Baker, A. J.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Computational Model Prediction and Biological Validation Using Simplified Mixed Field Exposures for the Development of a GCR Reference Field

The yield of chromosomal aberrations has been shown to increase in the lymphocytes of astronauts after long-duration missions of several months in space. Chromosome exchanges, especially translocations, are positively correlated with many cancers and are therefore a potential biomarker of cancer risk associated with radiation exposure. Although extensive studies have been carried out on the induction of chromosomal aberrations by low- and high-LET radiation in human lymphocytes, fibroblasts, and epithelial cells exposed in vitro, there is a lack of data on chromosome aberrations induced by low dose-rate chronic exposure and mixed field beams such as those expected in space. Chromosome aberration studies at NSRL will provide the biological validation needed to extend the computational models over a broader range of experimental conditions (more complicated mixed fields leading up to the galactic cosmic rays (GCR) simulator), helping to reduce uncertainties in radiation quality effects and dose-rate dependence in cancer risk models. These models can then be used to answer some of the open questions regarding requirements for a full GCR reference field, including particle type and number, energy, dose rate, and delivery order. In this study, we designed a simplified mixed field beam with a combination of proton, helium, oxygen, and iron ions with shielding or proton, helium, oxygen, and titanium without shielding. Human fibroblasts cells were irradiated with these mixed field beam as well as each single beam with acute and chronic dose rate, and chromosome aberrations (CA) were measured with 3-color fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) chromosome painting methods. Frequency and type of CA induced with acute dose rate and chronic dose rates with single and mixed field beam will be discussed. A computational chromosome and radiation-induced DNA damage model, BDSTRACKS (Biological Damage by Stochastic Tracks), was updated to simulate various types of CA induced by acute exposures of the mixed field beams used for the experiments. The chromosomes were simulated by a polymer random walk algorithm with restrictions to their respective domains in the nucleus [1]. The stochastic dose to the nucleus was calculated with the code RITRACKS [2]. Irradiation of a target volume by a mixed field of ions was implemented within RITRACKs, and the fields of ions can be delivered over specific periods of time, allowing the simulation of dose-rate effects. Similarly, particles of various types and energies extracted from a pre-calculated spectra of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) can be used in RITRACKS. The number and spatial location of DSBs (DNA double-strand breaks) were calculated in BDSTRACKS using the simulated chromosomes and local (voxel) dose. Assuming that DSBs led to chromosome breaks, and simulating the rejoining of damaged chromosomes occurring during repair, BDSTRACKS produces the yield of various types of chromosome aberrations as a function of time (only final yields are presented). A comparison between experimental and simulation results will be shown.

Hada, M.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Section on Observed Impacts on El Nino

Agricultural applications of El Nino forecasts are already underway in some countries and need to be evaluated or re-evaluated. For example, in Peru, El Nino forecasts have been incorporated into national planning for the agricultural sector, and areas planted with rice and cotton (cotton being the more drought-tolerant crop) are adjusted accordingly. How well are this and other such programs working? Such evaluations will contribute to the governmental and intergovernmental institutions, including the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research and the US National Ocean and Atmospheric Agency that are fostering programs to aid the effective use of forecasts. As El Nino climate forecasting grows out of the research mode into operational mode, the research focus shifts to include the design of appropriate modes of utilization. Awareness of and sensitivity to the costs of prediction errors also grow. For example, one major forecasting model failed to predict the very large El Nino event of 1997, when Pacific sea-surface temperatures were the highest on record. Although simple correlations between El Nino events and crop yields may be suggestive, more sophisticated work is needed to understand the subtleties of the interplay among the global climate system, regional climate patterns, and local agricultural systems. Honesty about the limitations of an forecast is essential, especially when human livelihoods are at stake. An end-to-end analysis links tools and expertise from the full sequence of ENSO cause-and-effect processes. Representatives from many disciplines are needed to achieve insights, e.g, oceanographers and atmospheric scientists who predict El Nino events, climatologists who drive global climate models with sea-surface temperature predictions, agronomists who translate regional climate connections in to crop yield forecasts, and economists who analyze market adjustments to the vagaries of climate and determine the value of climate forecasts. Methods include historical studies to understand past patterns and to test hindcasts of the prediction tools, crop modeling, spatial analysis and remote sensing. This research involves expanding, deepening, and applying the understanding of physical climate to the fields of agronomy and social science; and the reciprocal understanding of crop growth and farm economics to climatology. Delivery of a regional climate forecast with no information about how the climate forecast was derived limits its effectiveness. Explanation of a region's major climate driving forces helps to place a seasonal forecast in context. Then, a useful approach is to show historical responses to previous El Nino events, and projections, with uncertainty intervals, of crop response from dynamic process crop growth models. Regional ID forecasts should be updated with real-time weather conditions. Since every El Nino event is different, it is important to track, report and advise on each new event as it unfolds. The stability of human enterprises depends on understanding both the potentialities and the limits of predictability. Farmers rely on past experience to anticipate and respond to fluctuations in the biophysical systems on which their livelihoods depend. Now scientists are improving their ability to predict some major elements of climate variability. The improvements in the reliability of El Nino forecasts are encouraging, but seasonal forecasts for agriculture are not, and will probably never be completely infallible, due to the chaotic nature of the climate system. Uncertainties proliferate as we extend beyond Pacific sea-surface temperatures to climate teleconnections and agricultural outcomes. The goal of this research is to shed as a clear light as possible on these inherent uncertainties and thus to contribute to the development of appropriate responses to El Nino and other seasonal forecasts for a range of stakeholders, which, ultimately, includes food consumers everywhere.

Rosenzweig, Cynthia↗
NASA NTRS1983

An uncoupled viscoplastic constitutive model for metals at elevated temperature

An uncoupled constitutive model for predicting the transient response of thermal and rate dependent, inelastic material behavior is presented. The uncoupled model assumes that there is a temperature below which the total strain consists essentially of elastic and rate insensitive inelastic strains only. Above this temperature, the rate dependent inelastic strain (creep) dominates. The rate insensitive inelastic strain component is modeled in an incremental form with a yield function, flow rule and hardening law. Revisions to the hardening rule permit the model to predict temperature-dependent kinematic-isotropic hardening behavior, cyclic saturation, asymmetric stress-strain response upon stress reversal, and variable Bauschinger effect. The rate dependent inelastic strain component is modeled using a rate equation in terms of back stress, drag stress and exponent n as functions of temperature and strain. A sequence of hysteresis loops and relaxation tests are utilized to define the rate dependent inelastic strain rate. Evaluation of the model is performed by comparison with experiments involving various thermal and mechanical load histories on 5086 aluminum alloy, 304 stainless steel and Hastelloy-X.

Haisler, W. E.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Development of constitutive models for cyclic plasticity and creep behavior of super alloys at high temperature

An uncoupled constitutive model for predicting the transient response of thermal and rate dependent, inelastic material behavior was developed. The uncoupled model assumes that there is a temperature below which the total strain consists essentially of elastic and rate insensitive inelastic strains only. Above this temperature, the rate dependent inelastic strain (creep) dominates. The rate insensitive inelastic strain component is modelled in an incremental form with a yield function, blow rule and hardening law. Revisions to the hardening rule permit the model to predict temperature-dependent kinematic-isotropic hardening behavior, cyclic saturation, asymmetric stress-strain response upon stress reversal, and variable Bauschinger effect. The rate dependent inelastic strain component is modelled using a rate equation in terms of back stress, drag stress and exponent n as functions of temperature and strain. A sequence of hysteresis loops and relaxation tests are utilized to define the rate dependent inelastic strain rate. Evaluation of the model has been performed by comparison with experiments involving various thermal and mechanical load histories on 5086 aluminum alloy, 304 stainless steel and Hastelloy X.

Haisler, W. E.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Self-Consistent Implementation of a Zero-Equation Transport Model Into a Predictive Model for a Hall Effect Thruster

The performance of an axisymmetric multi-fluid Hall thruster code that incorporates a self-consistent, data-driven closure model for the anomalous electron transport is investigated. Five different operating conditions of the H9 magnetically shielded Hall thruster are simulated with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory’s Hall2De. In order to capture the inherent uncertainty associated with the closure model, O(100) simulations are run for each condition, each of using a coefficient set sampled randomly from a probability distribution. The results of these simulations provide probabilistic predictions of thruster performance quantities including thrust, and discharge current, as well as several component efficiencies and centerline plasma properties. The model is found to yield converged solutions at all conditions, with large 10 kHzrange oscillations and performance trends with voltage and flow rate similar to experiment. The model under-predicts the thrust by 15-25% and over-predicts the discharge current by 20% on average compared to experiments at the same discharge voltage and mass flow rate. This performance discrepancy is due to lower beam utilization, mass utilization, and divergence efficiency than experiment, resulting from high Hall parameters in the acceleration region, which lead to a protracted ion acceleration region. The physical processes underlying this result are discussed in the context of future data-driven modeling efforts.

Jorns, Benjamin A.↗
NASA NTRS1980

LACIE - An application of meteorology for United States and foreign wheat assessment

This paper describes the overall Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment technical approach utilizing the global weather-reporting network and the Landsat satellite to make a quasi-operational application of existing research results, and the accomplishments of this cooperative experiment in utilizing the weather information. Global weather data were utilized in preparing timely yield estimates for selected areas of the U.S. Great Plains, the U.S.S.R. and Canada. Additionally, wheat yield models were developed and pilot tested for Brazil, Australia, India and Argentina. The results of the work show that heading dates for wheat in North America can be predicted with an average absolute error of about 5 days for winter wheat and 4 days for spring wheat. Independent tests of wheat yield models over a 10-year period for the U.S. Great Plains produced a root-mean-square error of 1.12 quintals per hectare (q/ha) while similar tests in the U.S.S.R. produced an error of 1.31 q/ha. Research designed to improve the initial capability is described as is the rationale for further evolution of a capability to monitor global climate and assess its impact on world food supplies.

Hill, J. D.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Experimental evaluation of a Mach 3.5 axisymmetric inlet

Wind tunnel test results for a large scale inlet model designed for Mach 3.5 are presented and compared with analytical predictions. The inlet is an axisymmetric mixed-compression type with a lip diameter of 49.723 cm. The inlet design was developed using analytical procedures. Data are shown for freestream Mach numbers from 0.6 to 3.5. The test results indicate that boundary layer bleed requirements can be accurately predicted. Good agreement was obtained with analytical predictions of the flowfield structure and boundary layer development in the supersonic diffuser yielding high performance at the design Mach number. The highest engine face total pressure recovery at Mach 3.5 was 85.8%; this was obtained at 0.05 Mach tolerance with only 2.8% total pressure distortion and 13.4% bleed. In the started Mach number range from 1.6 to 3.5, the total pressure recovery in the throat, downstream of the terminal normal shock, ranged between 91% and 95%. Total pressure losses in the subsonic diffuser varied from 3% to 13%. The higher losses occuring between Mach 2.5 and 3.2 were believed to be caused by the rapid rate of increase in the area of the diffuser just downstream of the throat, possibly coupled with inadequate centerbody throat bleed. In the unstarted mode at transonic speeds, the maximum inlet flow was over 99% of the theoretical maximum capture mass-flow.

Syberg, J.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Solar gravitational deflection of radio waves measured by very-long-baseline interferometry

Utilizing a four-antenna technique, simultaneous observations were made, at each end of an 845-km baseline, of the radio sources 3C279 and 3C273B, which are 10 deg apart in the sky. Differences in interferometric phases at 3.7-cm wavelength monitored near the time of the 1972 occultation of 3C279 by the sun, yielded a gravitational deflection of 0.99 plus or minus 0.03 times the value predicted by general relativity, corresponding to gamma = 0.98 plus or minus 0.06 (standard error).

Counselman, C. C., III↗
NASA NTRS1976

Autoignition - A liquid propellant explosive potential limiting phenomena

It has been thought that the unplanned mixing of the propellants of liquid launch vehicles could result in massive explosion and destruction. This paper presents results of NASA's attempt to develop a precise analytical theory and predictive model for liquid propellant explosives. Prediction model experiments involving a 'seven-chart' approach showing the relationship between yield function, mixing function, time dependence, chemical and physical reactant properties and quantity effects were used to establish a theory that autoignition takes place when propellants mix in a certain 'critical mass' or greater. An analytical confirmation of the theory has been carried out, with particular reference to possible autoignition in LOX/LH2 and LOX/RP-1 and Saturn V: it was confirmed that autoignition occurs and prevents the mixing of more than the 'critical mass' and therefore limits the explosive yield to several thousand pounds, which will disperse the remaining propellant and prohibit detonation of the total quantities otherwise suspected.

Boggs, W. H.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Saltation threshold on Mars - The effect of interparticle force, surface roughness, and low atmospheric density

Results are reported for wind-tunnel experiments performed to determine the threshold friction speed of particles with different densities. Experimentally determined threshold speeds are plotted as a function of particle diameter and in terms of threshold parameter vs particle friction Reynolds number. The curves are compared with those of previous experiments, and an A-B curve is plotted to show differences in threshold speed due to differences in size distributions and particle shapes. Effects of particle diameter are investigated, an expression for threshold speed is derived by considering the equilibrium forces acting on a single particle, and other approximately valid expressions are evaluated. It is shown that the assumption of universality of the A-B curve is in error at very low pressures for small particles and that only predictions which take account of both Reynolds number and effects of interparticle forces yield reasonable agreement with experimental data. Effects of nonerodible surface roughness are examined, and threshold speeds computed with allowance for this factor are compared with experimental values. Threshold friction speeds on Mars are then estimated for a surface pressure of 5 mbar, taking into account all the factors considered.

Iversen, J. D.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Power availability at terrestrial receptor sites for laser-power transmission from the satellite power system

A statistical model was developed for relating the temporal transmission parameters of a laser beam from a solar power satellite to observable meteorological data to determine the influence of weather on power reception at the earth-based receiver. Sites within 100 miles of existing high voltage transmission lines were examined and the model was developed for clear-sky and clouded conditions. The cases of total transmission through clouds at certain wavelengths, no transmission, and partial transmission were calculated for the cloud portion of the model. The study covered cirriform, stratiform, cumiliform, and mixed type clouds and the possibility of boring holes through the clouds with the beam. Utilization of weapons-quality beams for hole boring, was found to yield power availability increases of 9-33%, although no beneficial effects could be predicted in regions of persistent cloud cover. An efficiency of 80% was determined as possible if several receptor sites were available within 200-300 miles of each other, thereby allowing changes of reception point in cases of unacceptable meteorological conditions.

Beverly, R. E., III↗
NASA NTRS1982

Stagnation point heat transfer augmentation due to free stream turbulence

A model has been proposed for the momentum eddy diffusivity induced by free stream turbulence intensity and integral length scale. The eddy diffusivity model is applied to the stagnation point of a cylinder situated in a uniform crossflow in the presence of free stream turbulence. A numerical solution of the governing momentum and energy equations with the proposed eddy diffusivity model yielded results for the skin friction coefficient and the Nusselt number. The numerical predictions of the present work are compared with experimental data and the agreement between the two is seen to be very good.

Gorla, R. S. R.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Space shuttle solid rocket booster water entry cavity collapse loads

Solid rocket booster cavity collapse flight measurements included external pressures on the motor case and aft skirt, internal motor case pressures, accelerometers located in the forward skirt, mid-body area, and aft skirt, as well as strain gages located on the skin of the motor case. This flight data yielded applied pressure longitudinal and circumferential distributions which compare well with model test predictions. The internal motor case ullage pressure, which is below atmospheric due to the rapid cooling of the hot internal gas, was more severe (lower) than anticipated due to the ullage gas being hotter than predicted. The structural dynamic response characteristics were as expected. Structural ring and wall damage are detailed and are considered to be attributable to the direct application of cavity collapse pressure combined with the structurally destabilizing, low internal motor case pressure.

Keefe, R. T.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Effects of free stream turbulence intensity and integral length scale on heat transfer from a circular cylinder in crossflow

A model has been proposed for the momentum eddy diffusivity induced by free stream turbulence intensity and integral length scale. The eddy diffusivity model is applied to a cylinder situated in a uniform crossflow in the presence of free stream turbulence. Numerical solution of the governing momentum and energy equations with the proposed eddy diffusivity model yielded results for the skin friction coefficient and the Nusselt number. The numerical predictions of the present work are compared with experimental data and the agreement between the two is seen to be very good.

Gorla, R. S. R.↗