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At least 667 records · Page 37

BuildingsBench: A Benchmark for Universal Building Load Forecasting [SWR-23-51]

The residential and commercial building stock in the United States is responsible for a significant percentage of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Electrification of end-uses, as well as decarbonizing the electrical grid through renewable energy sources such as solar and wind, constitutes the pathway to zero-emission buildings. Forecasting day-ahead building energy consumption is an integral part of this solution. Currently, specialized forecasting models are hand-made for each individual building, which is time-consuming, expensive, and leads to duplicated efforts. BuildingsBench is a Python software framework for training and comparing generalized machine learning models for universal building load forecasting. This challenge tasks a single foundational model to generalize its forecasts for a wide variety of buildings, across geographic regions, building types, weather patterns, and more. This software provide code for pre-training such models and subsequently evaluating their performance on a suite of hundreds of diverse real and synthetic buildings. BuildingsBench is a platform for: - Large-scale pretraining with the synthetic Buildings-900K dataset for short-term load forecasting (STLF). Buildings-900K is statistically representative of the entire U.S. building stock and is extracted from the NREL End-Use Load Profiles database. - Benchmarking on two tasks evaluating generalization: zero-shot STLF and transfer learning for STLF. We provide an index-based PyTorch Dataset for large-scale pretraining, easy data loading for multiple real building energy consumption datasets as PyTorch Tensors or Pandas DataFrames, simple (persistence) to advanced (transformer) baselines, metrics management, and more.

Emami, Patrick↗

Bi-Level Arbitrage Potential Evaluation for Grid-Scale Energy Storage Considering Wind Power and LMP Smoothing Effect

Our paper deals with extended-term energy storage (ES) arbitrage problems to maximize the annual revenue in deregulated power systems with high penetration wind power. The conventional ES arbitrage model takes the locational marginal prices (LMP) as an input and is unable to account for the impacts of ES operations on system LMPs. This paper proposes a bi-level ES arbitrage model, where the upper level maximizes the ES arbitrage revenue and the lower level simulates the market clearing process considering wind power and ES. The bi-level model is formulated as a mathematical program with equilibrium constraints (MPEC) and then recast into a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) using strong duality theory. Wind power fluctuations are characterized by the GARCH forecast model and the forecast error is modeled by forecast-bin based Beta distributions. Case studies are performed on a modified PJM 5-bus system and an IEEE 118-bus system with a weekly time horizon over an annual term to show the validity of the proposed bi-level model. The results from the conventional model and the bi-level model are compared under different ES power and energy ratings, and also various load and wind penetration levels.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A Meso-Climatology Study of the High-Resolution Tower Network Over the Florida Spaceport

Forecasters at the US Air Force 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) use wind and temperature data from the tower network over the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) to evaluate Launch Commit Criteria and to issue and verify temperature and wind advisories, watches, and warnings for ground operations. The Spaceflight Meteorology Group at the Johnson Space Center in Houston, TX also uses these data when issuing forecasts for shuttle landings at the KSC Shuttle Landing Facility. Systematic biases in these parameters at any of the towers could adversely affect an analysis, forecast, or verification for all of these operations. In addition, substantial geographical variations in temperature and wind speed can occur under specific wind directions. Therefore, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU), operated by ENSCO Inc., was tasked to develop a monthly and hourly climatology of temperatures and winds from the tower network, and identify the geographical variation, tower biases, and the magnitude of those biases. This paper presents a sub-set of results from a nine-year climatology of the KSC/CCAFS tower network, highlighting the geographical variations based on location, month, times of day, and specific wind direction regime. Section 2 provides a description of the tower mesonetwork and instrumentation characteristics. Section 3 presents the methodology used to construct the tower climatology including QC methods and data processing. The results of the tower climatology are presented in Section 4 and Section 5 summarizes the paper.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

Validation for Global Solar Wind Prediction Using Ulysses Comparison: Multiple Coronal and Heliospheric Models Installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

The prediction of the background global solar wind is a necessary part of space weather forecasting. Several coronal and heliospheric models have been installed and/or recently upgraded at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), including the Wang-Sheely-Arge (WSA)-Enlil model, MHD-Around-a-Sphere (MAS)-Enlil model, Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), and Heliospheric tomography using interplanetary scintillation data. Ulysses recorded the last fast latitudinal scan from southern to northern poles in 2007. By comparing the modeling results with Ulysses observations over seven Carrington rotations, we have extended our third-party validation from the previous near-Earth solar wind to middle to high latitudes, in the same late declining phase of solar cycle 23. Besides visual comparison, wehave quantitatively assessed the models capabilities in reproducing the time series, statistics, and latitudinal variations of solar wind parameters for a specific range of model parameter settings, inputs, and grid configurations available at CCMC. The WSA-Enlil model results vary with three different magnetogram inputs.The MAS-Enlil model captures the solar wind parameters well, despite its underestimation of the speed at middle to high latitudes. The new version of SWMF misses many solar wind variations probably because it uses lower grid resolution than other models. The interplanetary scintillation-tomography cannot capture the latitudinal variations of solar wind well yet. Because the model performance varies with parameter settings which are optimized for different epochs or flow states, the performance metric study provided here can serve as a template that researchers can use to validate the models for the time periods and conditions of interest to them.

Jian, L. K.↗

Implementation of a state of the art automated system for the production of cloud/water vapor motion winds from geostationary satellites

The research objectives in this proposal were part of a continuing program at UW-CIMSS to develop and refine an automated geostationary satellite winds processing system which can be utilized in both research and operational environments. The majority of the originally proposed tasks were successfully accomplished, and in some cases the progress exceeded the original goals. Much of the research and development supported by this grant resulted in upgrades and modifications to the existing automated satellite winds tracking algorithm. These modifications were put to the test through case study demonstrations and numerical model impact studies. After being successfully demonstrated, the modifications and upgrades were implemented into the NESDIS algorithms in Washington DC, and have become part of the operational support. A major focus of the research supported under this grant attended to the continued development of water vapor tracked winds from geostationary observations. The fully automated UW-CIMSS tracking algorithm has been tuned to provide complete upper-tropospheric coverage from this data source, with data set quality close to that of operational cloud motion winds. Multispectral water vapor observations were collected and processed from several different geostationary satellites. The tracking and quality control algorithms were tuned and refined based on ground-truth comparisons and case studies involving impact on numerical model analyses and forecasts. The results have shown the water vapor motion winds are of good quality, complement the cloud motion wind data, and can have a positive impact in NWP on many meteorological scales.

Velden, Christopher↗

An optically thick disk wind in GRO J1655-40?

We revisited the unusual wind in GRO J1655−40, detected with Chandra in 2005 April, using long-term Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer X-ray data and simultaneous optical/near-infrared photometric data. This wind is the most convincing case for magnetic driving in black hole binaries, as it has an inferred launch radius that is a factor of 10 smaller than the thermal wind prediction. However, the optical and near-infrared (OIR) fluxes monotonically increase around the Chandra observation, whereas the X-ray flux monotonically decreases from 10 days beforehand. Yet the optical and near-infrared fluxes are from the outer, irradiated disk, so for them to increase implies that the X-rays likewise increased. We applied a new irradiated disk model to the multi-wavelength spectral energy distributions. Fitting the OIR fluxes, we estimated the intrinsic luminosity at the Chandra epoch was ≳0.7L{sub Edd}, which is more than one order of magnitude larger than the observed X-ray luminosity. These results could be explained if a Compton-thick, almost completely ionized gas was present in the wind and strong scattering reduced the apparent X-ray luminosity. The effects of scattering in the wind should then be taken into account for discussion of the wind-driving mechanism. Radiation pressure and Compton heating may also contribute to powering the wind at this high luminosity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Monitoring and Forecasting Space Weather in Geospace Environment

For improving the reliability of Space Weather prediction, we developed a new, Polar Magnetic (PM) index of geomagnetic activity, which shows high correlation with both upstream solar wind data and related events in the magnetosphere and ionosphere. Similarly to the existing polar cap PC index, the new PM index was computed from data from two near-pole geomagnetic observatories; however, the method for computing the PM index is different. The high correlation of the PM index with both solar wind data and events in Geospace environment makes possible to improve significantly forecasting geomagnetic disturbances and such important parameters as the cross-polar-cap voltage and global Joule heating, which play an important role in the development of geomagnetic, ionospheric and thermospheric disturbances. We tested the PM index for 10-year period (1995-2004). The correlation between PM index and upstream solar wind data for these years is very high (the average correlation coefficient R approximately equal to 0.86). The PM index also shows the high correlation with the cross-polar-cap voltage and hemispheric Joule heating (the correlation coefficient between the actual and predicted values of these parameters approximately equal to 0.9), which results in significant increasing the prediction reliability of these parameters. Using the PM index of geomagnetic activity provides a significant increase in the forecasting reliability of geomagnetic disturbances and related events in Geospace environment. The PM index may be also used as an important input parameter in modeling ionospheric, magnetospheric, and thermospheric processes.

Lyatsky, Wladislaw↗

Developing a 20-year high-resolution wind data set for Puerto Rico

The purpose of this study is to develop a high-resolution wind resource data set for Puerto Rico as part of the wind resource assessment in the Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transition to 100 % Renewable Energy Study (PR100) project. The Weather and Research and Forecasting (WRF) is used to model 20-years (2001-2020) of wind resource data on a 3-km grid for the Puerto Rico region. Because accurately representing the planetary boundary layer (PBL)-physics in the WRF is key to accurately model low-level wind speed, 11 different PBL schemes are examined and evaluated to find a WRF configuration that can provide the most accurate wind data. The modeled wind speeds are validated with buoy observations, and the Shin-Hong PBL scheme is selected to generate the final wind data set. Here, the overall results demonstrate that the high-resolution data correctly represents the climate of Puerto Rico (e.g., a dominant easterly trade wind). At 160 m above ground, the southern regions of Puerto Rico show strong offshore wind speed (>8 m/s on average) throughout the daytime and nighttime. For land-based wind, average wind speed ranges from 5 m/s-7 m/s during daytime, whereas notable high wind speeds (>9 m/s) appear in the mountain regions during nighttime.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Relating CMIP5 Model Biases to Seasonal Forecast Skill in the Tropical Pacific

Abstract We examine links between tropical Pacific mean state biases and El Niño/Southern Oscillation forecast skill, using model‐analog hindcasts of sea surface temperature (SST; 1961–2015) and precipitation (1979–2015) at leads of 0–12 months, generated by 28 different models from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Model‐analog forecast skill has been demonstrated to match or even exceed traditional assimilation‐initialized forecast skill in a given model. Models with the most realistic mean states and interannual variability for SST, precipitation, and 10‐m zonal winds in the equatorial Pacific also generate the most skillful precipitation forecasts in the central equatorial Pacific and the best SST forecasts at 6‐month or longer leads. These results show direct links between model climatological biases and seasonal forecast errors, demonstrating that model‐analog hindcast skill—that is, how well a model can capture the observed evolution of tropical Pacific anomalies—is an informative El Niño/Southern Oscillation metric for climate simulations.

Ding, Hui↗

Investigating the physical mechanisms that modify wind plant blockage in stable boundary layers

Abstract. Wind plants slow down the approaching wind, a phenomenon known as blockage. Wind plant blockage undermines turbine performance for front-row turbines and potentially for turbines deeper into the array. We use large-eddy simulations to characterize blockage upstream of a finite-size wind plant in flat terrain for different atmospheric stability conditions and investigate the physical mechanisms modifying the flow upstream of the turbines. To examine the influence of atmospheric stability, we compare simulations of two stably stratified boundary layers using the Weather Research and Forecasting model in large-eddy simulation mode, representing wind turbines using the generalized actuator disk approach. For a wind plant, a faster cooling rate at the surface, which produces stronger stably stratified flow in the boundary layer, amplifies blockage. As a novelty, we investigate the physical mechanisms amplifying blockage by evaluating the different terms in the momentum conservation equation within the turbine rotor layer. The velocity deceleration upstream of a wind plant is caused by an adverse pressure gradient and momentum advection out of the turbine rotor layer. The cumulative deceleration of the flow upstream of the front-row turbines instigates vertical motions. The horizontal flow is diverted vertically, reducing momentum availability in the turbine rotor layer. Although the adverse pressure gradient upstream of the wind plant remains unchanged with atmospheric stability, vertical advection of horizontal momentum is amplified in the more strongly stable boundary layer, mainly by larger shear of the horizontal velocity, thus increasing the blockage effect.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Multi-Scale Simulation of Wind Farm Performance during a Frontal Passage

Predicting the response of wind farms to changing flow conditions is necessary for optimal design and operation. Here in this work, simulation and analysis of a frontal passage through a utility scale wind farm is achieved for the first time using a seamless multi-scale modeling approach. A generalized actuator disk (GAD) wind turbine model is used to represent turbine–flow interaction, and results are compared to novel radar observations during the frontal passage. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is employed with a nested grid setup that allows for coupling between multi-scale atmospheric conditions and turbine response. Starting with mesoscale forcing, the atmosphere is dynamically downscaled to the region of interest, where the interaction between turbulent flows and individual wind turbines is simulated with 10 m grid spacing. Several improvements are made to the GAD model to mimic realistic turbine operation, including a yawing capability and a power output calculation. Ultimately, the model is able to capture both the dynamics of the frontal passage and the turbine response; predictions show good agreement with observed background velocity, turbine wake structure, and power output after accounting for a phase shift in the mesoscale forcing. This study demonstrates the utility of the WRF-GAD model framework for simulating wind farm performance under complex atmospheric conditions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Quantifying wind plant blockage under stable atmospheric conditions

Wind plant blockage reduces the wind velocity upstream undermining turbine performance for the first row of the plant. We assess how atmospheric stability modifies the induction zone of a wind plant in flat terrain. We also explore different approaches to quantifying the magnitude and extent of the induction zone from field-like observations. To investigate the influence from atmospheric stability, we compare simulations of two stable boundary layers using the Weather Research and Forecasting model in large-eddy simulation mode, representing wind turbines using the generalized actuator disk approach. We find a faster cooling rate at the surface, which produces a stronger stably stratified boundary layer, amplifies the induction zone of both an isolated turbine and of a large wind plant. A statistical analysis on the hub-height wind speed field shows wind slowdowns only extend far upstream (up to 15D) of a wind plant in strong stable boundary layers. To evaluate different ways of measuring wind plant blockage from field-like observations, we consider various ways of estimating the freestream velocity upstream of the plant. Sampling a large area upstream is the most accurate approach to estimating the freestream conditions, and thus of measuring the blockage effect. Also, the choice of sampling method may induce errors of the same order as the velocity deficit in the induction zone.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Validation of wind resource and energy production simulations for small wind turbines in the United States

Abstract. Due to financial and temporal limitations, the small wind community relies upon simplified wind speed models and energy production simulation tools to assess site suitability and produce energy generation expectations. While efficient and user-friendly, these models and tools are subject to errors that have been insufficiently quantified at small wind turbine heights. This study leverages observations from meteorological towers and sodars across the United States to validate wind speed estimates from the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5), and the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), revealing average biases within ±0.5 m s−1 at small wind hub heights. Observations from small wind turbines across the United States provide references for validating energy production estimates from the System Advisor Model (SAM), Wind Report, MyWindTurbine.com, and Global Wind Atlas 3 (GWA3), which are seen to overestimate actual annual capacity factors by 2.5, 4.2, 11.5, and 7.3 percentage points, respectively. In addition to quantifying the error metrics, this paper identifies sources of model and tool discrepancies, noting that interannual fluctuation in the wind resource, wind speed class, and loss assumptions produces more variability in estimates than different horizontal and vertical interpolation techniques. The results of this study provide small wind installers and owners with information about these challenges to consider when making performance estimates and thus possible adjustments accordingly. Looking to the future, recognizing these error metrics and sources of discrepancies provides model and tool researchers and developers with opportunities for product improvement that could positively impact small wind customer confidence and the ability to finance small wind projects.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Quantitative satellite applications - Tropical cyclone intensity monitoring and track forecasting

An assessment is made of the effectiveness of VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) data gathered over the North Atlantic Ocean area in the 1982 and 1983 hurricane seasons. By the end of the 1983 season, progress had been made in providing high quality analyses and displays of mass, motion and moisture patterns for evaluation. A comparison of mean forecast errors for several different operational models, official forecasts, and the VAS Trajectory model for selected cases in which VAS deep layer mean wind data were available show VAS accuracies that are comparable with those of the official forecasts.

Velden, C. S.↗

ECMWF and SSM/I global surface wind speeds

Monthly mean 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg resolution 10-m height wind speeds from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) instrument and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) forecast-analysis system are compared between 60 deg S and 60 deg N during 1988-91. The SSM/I data were uniformly processed while numerous changes were made to the ECMWF forecast-analysis system. The SSM/I measurements, which were compared with moored-buoy wind observations, were used as a reference dataset to evaluate the influence of the changes made to the ECMWF system upon the ECMWF surface wind speed over the ocean. A demonstrable yearly decrease of the difference between SSM/I and ECMWF wind speeds occurred in the 10 deg S-10 deg N region, including the 5 deg S-5 deg N zone of the Pacific Ocean, where nearly all of the variations occurred in the 160 deg E-160 deg W region. The apparent improvement of the ECMWF wind speed occurred at the same time as the yearly decrease of the equatorial Pacific SSM/I wind speed, which was associated with the natural transition from La Nina to El Nino conditions. In the 10 deg S-10 deg N tropical Atlantic, the ECMWF wind speed had a 4-yr trend, which was not expected nor was it duplicated with the SSM/I data. No yearly trend was found in the difference between SSM/I and ECMWF surface wind speeds in middle latitudes of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. The magnitude of the differences between SSM/I and ECMWF was 0.4 m/s or 100% larger in the Northern than in the Southern Hemisphere extratropics. In two areas (Arabian Sea and North Atlantic Ocean) where ECMWF and SSM/I wind speeds were compared to ship measurements, the ship data had much better agreement with the ECMWF analyses compared to SSM/I data. In the 10 deg S-10 deg N area the difference between monthly standard deviations of the daily wind speeds dropped significantly from 1988 to 1989 but remained constant at about 30% for the remaining years.

Halpern, David↗

Wind Information Uplink to Aircraft Performing Interval Management Operations

The accuracy of the wind information used to generate trajectories for aircraft performing Interval Management (IM) operations is critical to the success of an IM operation. There are two main forms of uncertainty in the wind information used by the Flight Deck Interval Management (FIM) equipment. The first is the accuracy of the forecast modeling done by the weather provider. The second is that only a small subset of the forecast data can be uplinked to the aircraft for use by the FIM equipment, resulting in loss of additional information. This study focuses on what subset of forecast data, such as the number and location of the points where the wind is sampled should be made available to uplink to the aircraft.

Ahmad, Nashat↗

Applied Meteorology Unit Quarterly Report, Second Quarter FY-13

The AMU team worked on six tasks for their customers: (1) Ms. Crawford continued work on the objective lightning forecast task for airports in east-central Florida, and began work on developing a dual-Doppler analysis with local Doppler radars, (2) Ms. Shafer continued work for Vandenberg Air Force Base on an automated tool to relate pressure gradients to peak winds, (3) Dr. Huddleston continued work to develop a lightning timing forecast tool for the Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station area, (4) Dr. Bauman continued work on a severe weather forecast tool focused on east-central Florida, (5) Mr. Decker began developing a wind pairs database for the Launch Services Program to use when evaluating upper-level winds for launch vehicles, and (6) Dr. Watson began work to assimilate observational data into the high-resolution model configurations, she created for Wallops Flight Facility and the Eastern Range.

Bauman, William↗

Model Evaluation by Measurements from Collocated Remote Sensors in Complex Terrain

Model improvement efforts involve an evaluation of changes in model skill in response to changes in model physics and parameterization. When using wind measurements from various remote sensors to determine model forecast accuracy, it is important to understand the effects of measurement-uncertainty differences among the sensors resulting from differences in the methods of measurement, the vertical and temporal resolution of the measurements, and the spatial variability of these differences. Here we quantify instrument measurement variability in 80-m wind speed during WFIP2 and its impact on the calculated errors and the change in error from one model version to another. Here the model versions tested involved updates in model physics from HRRRv1 to HRRRv4, and reductions in grid interval from 3 km to 750 m. Model errors were found to be 2–3 m s –1 . Differences in errors as determined by various instruments at each site amounted to about 10% of this value, or 0.2–0.3 m s –1 . Changes in model skill due to physics or grid-resolution updates also differed depending on the instrument used to determine the errors; most of the instrument-to-instrument differences were ~0.1 m s –1 , but some reached 0.3 m s –1 . All instruments at a given site mostly showed consistency in the sign of the change in error. In two examples, though, the sign changed, illustrating a consequence of differences in measurements: errors determined using one instrument may show improvement in model skill, whereas errors determined using another instrument may indicate degradation. This possibility underscores the importance of having accurate measurements to determine the model error.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗