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DOE OSTI2022

Advantages of a variable‐resolution global climate model in reproducing the seasonal evolution of East Asian summer monsoon

Abstract The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is unique among monsoon systems that it features meridional evolution of the summer monsoon. In this study, we evaluate the performances of a Variable‐Resolution Community Earth System Model (VR‐CESM) regionally refined over eastern China (14 km) in reproducing the seasonal evolution of EASM precipitation over China. Compared with reference datasets, VR‐CESM shows better performance than the corresponding globally uniform coarse‐resolution model CESM (quasi‐uniform 1°), especially over western China where complex local topography exists. The northward monsoon migration is closely related to low‐level southerly flows and vertical moisture advection, which are more reasonably simulated in VR‐CESM. The four critical timings of the EASM (monsoon onset, withdrawal, peak, and duration) are also better captured in VR‐CESM than in CESM. The corresponding spatial Pearson correlation coefficients of the four critical timings with respect to reference datasets are about 0.1 higher in VR‐CESM than those in CESM. Both models are most accurate in simulating monsoon onset and least accurate at simulating the monsoon peak. The overestimated zonal thermal contrast in CESM is responsible for the earlier monsoon onset and excessive precipitation in September over the Yangtze River valley. Finer resolution in VR‐CESM, especially over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), appears to be a main factor in simulating better zonal thermal contrast and seasonal evolution of the EASM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Degassing fluxes in a temperate hydropower reservoir predictable by deep‐water dissolved oxygen but highly sensitive to discharge variability

Hydropower reservoirs contribute to methane (CH 4 ) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions, like all aquatic ecosystems. Unique to hydropower reservoirs are degassing emissions that occur when deep-water intakes move water with high CH 4 and CO 2 concentrations through turbines, leading to the release of these gases. However, few studies from hydropower reservoirs have measured seasonal variability and drivers of degassing fluxes, especially in temperate systems. We measured monthly degassing emissions in temperate Douglas Reservoir (Tennessee, USA) from 2023 to 2024. We found that degassing fluxes were highest in the summertime, and deep-water CH 4 and CO 2 concentrations were predictable by deep-water dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations. Degassing emissions accounted for 37–62% of annually estimated CH 4 emissions, outweighing ebullitive emissions during summer months. We highlight the value of using DO data to estimate deep-water CH 4 and CO 2 concentrations and degassing fluxes at higher temporal resolution to improve annualization and extrapolation of reservoir degassing emissions at broader scales.

Pilla, Rachel M. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (O↗

DOE OSTI2020

Projected increase of the East Asian summer monsoon ( Meiyu ) in Taiwan by climate models with variable performance

Abstract The active phase of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) in Taiwan during May and June, known as Meiyu , produces substantial precipitation for water uses in all sectors of society. Following a companion study that analysed the historical increase in the Meiyu precipitation, the present study conducted model evaluation and diagnosis based on the EASM lifecycle over Taiwan. Higher and lower skill groups were identified from 17 Couple Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, with five models in each group. Despite the difference in model performance, both groups projected a substantial increase in the Meiyu precipitation over Taiwan. In the higher skill group, weak circulation changes and reduced low‐level convergence point to a synoptically unfavourable condition for precipitation. In the lower skill group, intensified low‐level southwesterly winds associated with a deepened upper level trough enhance moisture pooling. Thus, the projected increase in Meiyu precipitation will likely occur through the combined effects of (1) the extension of a strengthened North Pacific anticyclone enhancing southwesterlies; and (2) more systematically, the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship that increases precipitation intensity in a warmer climate. The overall increase in the Meiyu precipitation projected by climate models of variable performance supports the observed tendency toward more intense rainfall in Taiwan and puts its early June 2017 extreme precipitation events into perspective.

Tung, Yu‐Shiang↗

DOE OSTI2021

Preserved and variable spatial‐chemical changes of lipids across tomato leaves in response to central vein wounding reveals potential origin of linolenic acid in signal transduction cascade

Abstract Membrane lipids serve as substrates for the generation of numerous signaling lipids when plants are exposed to environmental stresses, and jasmonic acid, an oxidized product of 18‐carbon unsaturated fatty acids (e.g., linolenic acid), has been recognized as the essential signal in wound‐induced gene expression. Yet, the contribution of individual membrane lipids in linolenic acid generation is ill‐defined. In this work, we performed spatial lipidomic experiments to track lipid changes that occur locally at the sight of leaf injury to better understand the potential origin of linolenic and linoleic acids from individual membrane lipids. The central veins of tomato leaflets were crushed using surgical forceps, leaves were cryosectioned and analyzed by two orthogonal matrix‐assisted laser desorption/ionization mass spectrometry imaging platforms for insight into lipid spatial distribution. Significant changes in lipid composition are only observed 30 min after wounding, while after 60 min lipidome homeostasis has been re‐established. Phosphatidylcholines exhibit a variable pattern of spatial behavior in individual plants. Among lysolipids, lysophosphatidylcholines strongly co‐localize with the injured zone of wounded leaflets, while, for example, lysophosphatidylglycerol (LPG) (16:1) accumulated preferentially toward the apex in the injured zone of wounded leaflets. In contrast, two other LPGs (LPG [18:3] and LPG [18:2]) are depleted in the injured zone. Our high‐resolution co‐localization imaging analyses suggest that linolenic acids are predominantly released from PCs with 16_18 fatty acid composition along the entire leaf, while it seems that in the apex zone PG (16:1_18:3) significantly contributes to the linolenic acid pool. These results also indicate distinct localization and/or substrate preferences of phospholipase isoforms in leaf tissue.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

In vivo localization of iron starvation induced proteins under variable iron supplementation regimes in Phaeodactylum tricornutum

Abstract The model pennate diatom Phaeodactylum tricornutum is able to assimilate a range of iron sources. It therefore provides a platform to study different mechanisms of iron processing concomitantly in the same cell. In this study, we follow the localization of three iron starvation induced proteins (ISIPs) in vivo, driven by their native promoters and tagged by fluorophores in an engineered line of P. tricornutum . We find that the localization patterns of ISIPs are dynamic and variable depending on the overall iron status of the cell and the source of iron it is exposed to. Notwithstanding, a shared destination of the three ISIPs both under ferric iron and siderophore‐bound iron supplementation is a globular compartment in the vicinity of the chloroplast. In a proteomic analysis, we identify that the cell engages endocytosis machinery involved in the vesicular trafficking as a response to siderophore molecules, even when these are not bound to iron. Our results suggest that there may be a direct vesicle traffic connection between the diatom cell membrane and the periplastidial compartment (PPC) that co‐opts clathrin‐mediated endocytosis and the “cytoplasm to vacuole” (Cvt) pathway, for proteins involved in iron assimilation. Proteomics data are available via ProteomeXchange with identifier PXD021172. Highlight The marine diatom P. tricornutum engages a vesicular network to traffic siderophores and phytotransferrin from the cell membrane directly to a putative iron processing site in the vicinity of the chloroplast.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Measurement of the dineutrino system kinematic variables in dileptonic top quark pair production in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV

Differential top quark pair production cross sections are measured in the dilepton final states e + e − , μ + μ − , and e ± μ ∓ , as a function of kinematic variables of the two-neutrino system: the transverse momentum $p^{vv}_{\textrm{T}}$ of the dineutrino system, the minimum distance in azimuthal angle between $\vec{p}^{vv}_{\textrm{T}}$ and leptons, and in two dimensions in bins of both observables. The measurements are performed using CERN LHC proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV, recorded by the CMS detector between 2016 and 2018, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb −1 . The measured cross sections are unfolded to the particle level using an unregularized least squares method. Results are compared with predictions by the standard model of particle physics, and found to be in agreement with theoretical calculations as well as Monte Carlo simulations.

Hadron-Hadron Scattering↗

DOE OSTI2024

$t\overline{t}b\overline{b}$ at NLO precision in a variable flavor number scheme

Top-quark pair production in association with two $b$-jets is computed at next-to-leading order QCD precision, including effects of the $b$-quark mass, and matched to a $t\overline{t}$+jets simulation in a variable flavor number scheme. The Monte Carlo realization of this method, called fusing, consistently embeds the four-flavor calculation in a particle-level event generator. As a first phenomenological application, we present observables relevant to the data-driven estimation of irreducible backgrounds to $t\overline{t}H$ -production.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Beyond Taylor’s hypothesis: a novel volumetric reconstruction of velocity and density fields for variable‑density and shear flows

Abstract This work presents a novel numerical procedure for reconstructing volumetric density and velocity fields from planar laser-induced fluorescence (PLIF) and stereoscopic particle image velocimetry (SPIV) data. This new method is theoretically and practically demonstrated to provide more accurate 3D vortical structures and density fields in high shear flows than reconstruction methods based on the mean convective velocity. While Taylor’s hypothesis of frozen turbulence is commonly applied by using the local mean streamwise velocity, the proposed algorithm uses the measured local instantaneous velocity for data convection. It consists of a step-by-step reconstruction based on a mixed Lagrangian–Eulerian solver that includes the 3D interpolation of scattered flow data and that relaxes the Taylor’s hypothesis by iterative enforcement of the incompressibility constraint on the velocity field. This methodology provides 3D fields with temporal resolution, spatial resolution, and accuracy comparable to that of real 3D snapshots, thus providing a practical alternative to tomographic measurements. The procedure is validated using numerical data of the constant-density channel flow available on the Johns Hopkins University Turbulence Database (JHTDB), showing the accurate reconstruction of the 3D velocity field. The algorithm is applied to an experimental dataset of PLIF and SPIV measurements of a variable-density jet flow, demonstrating its capability to provide 3D velocity and density fields that are more consistent with the Navier–Stokes equations compared to the mean flow convective method. Graphic abstract

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Climatology of diablo winds in Northern California and their relationships with large-scale climate variabilities

The most destructive wildfires recently in Northern California have been linked to the occurrences of Diablo Winds (DWs). This study investigates the climatology of DWs during September–December 1979–2018, and their relationships with various climate modes using observations and two high-resolution reanalysis datasets. Our finding shows that DWs do not have a long-term trend in terms of the annual total number, total duration, and associated maximum wind speeds of DWs over the past 4 decades. However, their associated minimum relative humidity (RH) has decreased significantly, especially in October, which suggests that the dryness during DWs has become more severe with time, possibly leading to an increased chance of fires, and their destructive potential. We also find that the annual total number and duration of DWs have exhibited an quasi-periodic variation, with intervals ranging from 2 to 4 years. The periodic variability of DWs might be attributed to the teleconnections between DWs and climate oscillations, specifically the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), through their modulation of pressure systems near California and the location of the Pacific jet stream. It is suggested that when La Niña and the QBO westerly phases co-occur in the spring, DWs in the following fall and winter tend to occur more frequently, and are associated with more intense high winds and dryness as compared to other springtime QBO and ENSO phases. This relationship may be used to predict the seasonal outlook of DWs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impacts of year-to-year weather variability and inter-panel spacing on agrivoltaic crop yields in Massachusetts

Deployment of utility-scale solar power plants could lead to agricultural land-use changes. Agrivoltaics, a dual land use combining solar and agriculture on the same land, can provide multiple environmental benefits, including improving soil quality and water use efficiency. The body of agrivoltaic field data is still growing, and crop responses to different solar configurations under different local climates are highly varied. We investigate the impact of adding spacing between adjacent solar panels in a fixed-tilt system to improve light diffusion to crops. For four crops (broccoli, peppers, kale, Swiss chard) grown across 3 years in an agrivoltaic system in Massachusetts, we found that only kale had a linearly increasing trend as the inter-panel spacing increased from 0.6 m to 1.5 m (2 ft to 5 ft). However, there were significant year-to-year differences in the yield of agrivoltaic versus control fields. Agrivoltaic and full sun fields produced equivalent yields in a hot, dry year, whereas the full-sun control beds produced more salable yield for all four crops in a warm, wet year. This demonstrates variability of agricultural outcomes and the need for more multi-year studies to ensure agrivoltaic impacts are not under- or overestimated.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Developing a Control Strategy for Minimum Airflow Setting Considering CO2 Level and Energy Consumption in a Variable Air Volume System

In an office building equipped with a Variable Air Volume (VAV) system, this paper introduces a novel method for controlling the minimum supply airflow fraction in each zone’s VAV box, having a capability to consider indoor CO2 level and energy consumption. The EnergyPlus simulation using the medium office prototype model was employed, which evaluated the performance of the energy and CO2 concentration for five VAV box airflow control strategies. The paper focuses on CO2 concentration-based airflow control method and compares it with other four methods including conventional single-max, reduced minimum single-max, demand-controlled ventilation(DCV), and dualmax control methods according to guidelines and common practices. The newly proposed control strategy directly correlates the minimum airflow fraction to CO2 concentration. A general trend emerged when comparing CO2 concentrations—lower minimum airflow fractions were associated with higher concentrations. The proposed control method effectively maintained low CO2 concentrations and enabled a lower airflow fraction contributing to energy consumption reduction. It was confirmed that heating energy consumption in climate zone 4A, 5B, and 6A showed a maximum saving of approximately 30% compared to the conventional single-max and dual max control strategies. It was found that cooling energy consumption in climate zone 4A and 6A can achieve a maximum saving of approximately 10% compared to the conventional control strategies. The proposed CO2 concentration-based control logic is promising as it not only improves the indoor air quality lowering the CO2 concentration in the occupied spaces, but also contributes to HVAC energy savings.

Lee, Jong Man↗

DOE OSTI2024

The environmental impact of hydropower: a systematic review of the ecological effects of sub-daily flow variability on riverine fish

Hydropower can help facilitate power grid decarbonization because it can respond to short-term changes in power demand and is comparatively more reliable than intermittent wind and solar. However, flexible hydropower operations can create rapid and abnormal fluctuations in downstream flow conditions, which can negatively impact aquatic ecosystems. Accordingly, we conducted a systematic review on the ecological effects of hydropower-driven sub-daily flow variability (SDFV) on riverine fishes. We reviewed and synthesized 109 articles relevant to fish-SDFV relationships from seven sources, most of which focused on Salmonids in North America and northern and western Europe and were published in the last 15 years. We found strong agreement in the literature that SDFV increases fish stranding risk, destabilizes habitat, and decreases production and diversity. We found moderate agreement that SDFV interrupts fish reproduction, increases or has no impact on condition, and prompts or discourages movement depending on local channel conditions. We found little to no agreement for relationships between SDFV and mortality, physiology, and behavior. The effects of SDFV on riverine fish ecology are intertwined in the complex suite of biotic and abiotic characteristics that structure aquatic ecosystems and are highly site-, species-, and life stage-specific. Assessments of the impact of SDFV on fish ecology should first characterize local habitat and channel quality and fish community composition to identify specific, measurable ecological outcomes to sustain or enhance, and then design mitigation strategies tailored to those ecological objectives.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Development of a variable tensioning system to reduce separation force in large scale stereolithography

Projection micro stereolithography (PµSL) is an additive manufacturing tool that offers multiple advantages, including unparalleled resolution and throughput, but the ability to print high viscosity resin for large-scale parts is limited. One of the key challenges in PµSL is to separate a newly polymerized layer from the vat floor without damaging the part. Since the separation force scales with the printing area, the risk of damaging the part increases significantly with larger-scale systems and must be addressed. In this paper, a novel roll-to-roll, variable tensioning system is proposed to reduce the separation force during printing. A mathematical model is proposed to predict the separation force for different 2D geometries, and a set of experiments is conducted on an experimental prototype to validate the model. Finally, the effects of different separation parameters including peel rate and peel angle are discussed in detail. The results show that the proposed tensioning system reduces the separation force significantly.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Markovian transport processes in a heterogeneous, variably saturated watershed: A multi-domain spatial Markov model

Transport processes in watersheds remain challenging to describe accurately with upscaled models because of their intricate complexities at multiple scales that can lead to multi-modal, non-Fickian breakthrough curves. One of the recent advances in solute transport modeling has been the Lagrangian spatial Markov model (SMM), which describes transport using velocity increments and models the correlated transitions between them. The method has been applied previously to saturated porous media and fractured media, but these successful applications suggest it may be useful for describing watershed scale processes as well. An existing, 3-D, heterogeneous variably saturated model of a headwaters catchment and classical random walk particle tracking were used to generate a forward simulation and the resulting transport was analyzed with a spatial Markov framework. Existing SMM methods were used to analyze the transport paths through the complex, unconfined domain and we found that the vadose zone plays an important role in the correlation structure. As such, a new kind of SMM is proposed, termed a multi-domain SMM (MD-SMM), that uses separate correlation models for auto-transitions in the vadose zone and the saturated zone, and for the cross-transitions between them. The MD-SMM improves representation of transport relative to the single domain model and can naturally delineate times when a particle is in the vadose zone or the saturated zone, adding an additional degree of realism to the upscaled model. Lastly, we show that the transition probability matrix for transport in the saturated portion of this unconfined system is approximately Markovian, which is an important validation of the proposed framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Early season prediction of within-field crop yield variability by assimilating CubeSat data into a crop model

Accurate early season predictions of crop yield at the within-field scale can be used to address a range of crop production, management, and precision agricultural challenges. While the remote sensing of within-field insights has been a research goal for many years, it is only recently that observations with the required spatio-temporal resolutions, together with efficient assimilation methods to integrate these into modeling frameworks, have become available to advance yield prediction efforts. Here we explore a yield prediction approach that combines daily high-resolution CubeSat imagery with the APSIM crop model. The approach employs APSIM to train a linear regression that relates simulated yield to simulated leaf area index (LAI). That relationship is then used to identify the optimal regression date at which the LAI provides the best prediction of yield: in this case, approximately 14 weeks prior to harvest. Instead of applying the regression on satellite imagery that is coincident, or closest to, the regression date, our method implements a particle filter that integrates CubeSat-based LAI into APSIM to provide end-of-season high-resolution (3 m) yield maps weeks before the optimal regression date. The approach is demonstrated on a rainfed maize field located in Nebraska, USA, where suitable collections of both imagery and in-situ data were available for assessment. The procedure does not require in-field data to calibrate the regression model, with results showing that even with a single assimilation step, it is possible to provide yield estimates with good accuracy up to 21 days before the optimal regression date. Yield spatial variability was reproduced reasonably well, with a strong correlation to independently collected measurements (R 2 = 0.73 and rRMSE = 12%). When the field averaged yield was compared, our approach reduced yield prediction error from 1 Mg/ha (control case based on a calibrated APSIM model), to 0.5 Mg/ha (using satellite imagery alone), and then to 0.2 Mg/ha (results with assimilation up to three weeks prior to the optimal regression date). Such a capacity to provide spatially explicit yield predictions early in the season has considerable potential to enhance digital agricultural goals and improve end-of-season yield predictions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Solution and sensitivity analysis of nonlinear equations using a hypercomplex-variable Newton-Raphson method

Here, the classical Newton-Raphson (NR) method for solving nonlinear equations is enhanced in two ways through the use of hypercomplex variables and algebra. In particular, i) the Jacobian is computed in a highly accurate and automated way, and ii) the derivative of the solution to the nonlinear equations is computed with respect to any parameter contained within the system of equations. These advances provide two significant enhancements in that it is straightforward to provide an accurate Jacobian and to construct a reduced order model (ROM) of arbitrary order with respect to any parameter of the system. The ROM can then be used to approximate the solution for other parameter values without requiring additional solutions of the nonlinear equations. Several case studies are presented including 1D and 2D academic examples with fully functioning Python code provided. Additionally, a case of study of the catenary of an elastic cable subject to its own weight and a vertical point load. Derivatives up to 10th order were computed with respect to material, loading, and geometrical parameters. The derivatives were used to generate reduced order models of the cable deformation and reaction forces at its ends with respect to multiple input parameters. Results show that from a single hypercomplex evaluation of the cable under a single vertical point load, it is possible to generate an accurate reduced order model capable of predicting the cable deformation with 1.5 times the load in the opposite direction and with 3.5 times the load in the same direction without resolving the system of equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Characteristics of locational uncertainty marginal price for correlated uncertainties of variable renewable generation and demands

With the rapid increase of variable renewable energy sources in power systems, how to manage and price the uncertainty of renewable resources’ power outputs is becoming an urgent issue. Current market designs considering the uncertainties are mainly based on the probabilistic scenario set of demand and renewable energy resources power outputs. This consideration makes market designs vulnerable to three significant challenges when put into practice. First, the accurate probability distribution of renewable generation is hard to obtain in real-time. Second, it is challenging to clear the market timely with many scenarios to guarantee accuracy. Third, generation cost recovery cannot be guaranteed for some scenarios. To overcome these challenges, this paper proposes a locational uncertainty marginal price model to price the uncertainty explicitly based on a scenario-free stochastic market-clearing model. Instead of using the probabilistic scenario set, the uncertainty of renewable energy sources and loads is modeled with distributionally-robust chance constraints. The correlation of uncertainties can be endogenously modeled in both the market-clearing and the locational uncertainty marginal price formation. Furthermore, this paper proves that generation cost recovery, revenue adequacy, and partial market equilibrium can be achieved using the locational uncertainty marginal price model. Numerical results from both the small and large systems simulations validate that the generation cost recovery is maintained no matter the generation participates in uncertainty mitigation or not. The transmission congestion surplus is also allocated appropriately among loads, renewable energy sources, and financial transmission right owners.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Variable renewable energy deployment in low-emission scenarios: The role of technology cost and value

While rapid deployment of variable renewable energy (VRE) technologies, namely wind and solar PV, is often projected in 2C pathways generated by integrated assessment models, there is a wide range in projected VRE deployment by mid-century. Such differences could be the result of differences in assumptions about future technology costs and/or differences in model approaches for capturing other aspects of technology competitiveness. Here we introduce a consistent competitiveness metric, profitability-adjusted levelized cost of electricity (or PLCOE), to an integrated assessment model (EPPA) to evaluate the representation of technology competition, including VRE, in low-emission scenarios. We show that representing the value of technology (alongside cost) may significantly impact VRE deployment relative to scenarios without such an adjustment. In addition, we show that varying VRE costs by about 35% in 2050 results in differences in VRE deployment that span much of the range in outcomes (over the same period) observed in likely 2C scenarios assessed by the IPCC, suggesting that both cost and value are key drivers of VRE deployment in such scenarios. Given the central role that VRE technologies play in the electricity mix across most scenarios, we also find that alternative cost assumptions for VRE technologies can lead to changes in electricity prices, the associated demand for electricity, and total final and primary energy consumption. However, the demand for fuels other than electricity is relatively insensitive to VRE assumptions in the 2C scenarios considered here.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗