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At least 667 records · Page 37

Validation of High-Risk Computed Tomography Features for Detection of Local Recurrence After Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy for Early-Stage Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Purpose: Fibrotic changes after stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) for stage I non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) are difficult to distinguish from local recurrences (LR), hampering proper patient selection for salvage therapy. This study validates previously reported high-risk computed tomography (CT) features (HRFs) for detection of LR in an independent patient cohort. Methods and Materials: From a multicenter database, 13 patients with biopsy-proven LR were matched 1:2 to 26 non-LR control patients based on dose, planning target volume (PTV), follow-up time, and lung lobe. Tested HRFs were enlarging opacity, sequential enlarging opacity, enlarging opacity after 12 months, bulging margin, linear margin disappearance, loss of air bronchogram, and craniocaudal growth. Additionally, 2 new features were analyzed: the occurrence of new unilateral pleural effusion, and growth based on relative volume, assessed by manual delineation. Results: All HRFs were significantly associated with LR except for loss of air bronchogram. The best performing HRFs were bulging margin, linear margin disappearance, and craniocaudal growth. Receiver operating characteristic analysis of the number of HRFs to detect LR had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.97 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.9-1.0), which was identical to the performance described in the original report. The best compromise (closest to 100% sensitivity and specificity) was found at ≥4 HRFs, with a sensitivity of 92% and a specificity of 85%. A model consisting of only 2 HRFs, bulging margin and craniocaudal growth, resulted in a sensitivity of 85% and a specificity of 100%, with an AUC of 0.96 (95% CI 0.9-1.0) (HRFs ≥2). Pleural effusion and relative growth did not significantly improve the model. Conclusion: We successfully validated CT-based HRFs for detection of LR after SBRT for early-stage NSCLC. As an alternative to number of HRFs, we propose a simplified model with the combination of the 2 best HRFs: bulging margin and craniocaudal growth, although validation is warranted.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Plasma Levels of IL-8 and TGF-β1 Predict Radiation-Induced Lung Toxicity in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: A Validation Study

Purpose and Objectives: We previously reported that the combination of mean lung dose (MLD) and inflammatory cytokines interleukin-8 (IL-8) and transforming growth factor-β1 (TGF-β1) may provide a more accurate model for radiation-induced lung toxicity (RILT) prediction in 58 patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). This study is to validate the previous findings with new patients and to explore new models with more cytokines. Methods and Materials: One hundred forty-two patients with stage I-III NSCLC treated with definitive radiation therapy (RT) from prospective studies were included. Sixty-five new patients were used to validate previous findings, and all 142 patients were used to explore new models. Thirty inflammatory cytokines were measured in plasma samples before RT and 2 weeks and 4 weeks during RT (pre, 2w, 4w). Grade ≥2 RILT was defined as grade 2, and higher radiation pneumonitis or symptomatic pulmonary fibrosis was the primary endpoint. Logistic regression was performed to evaluate the risk factors of RILT. The area under the curve (AUC) for the receiver operating characteristic curves was used for model assessment. Results: Sixteen of 65 patients (24.6%) experienced RILT2. Lower pre IL-8 and higher TGF-β1 2w/pre ratio were associated with higher risk of RILT2. The AUC increased to 0.73 by combining MLD, pre IL-8, and TGF-β1 2w/pre ratio compared with 0.61 by MLD alone to predict RILT. In all 142 patients, 29 patients (20.4%) experienced grade ≥2 RILT. Among the 30 cytokines measured, only IL-8 and TGF-β1 were significantly associated with the risk of RILT2. MLD, pre IL-8 level, and TGF-β1 2w/pre ratio were included in the final predictive model. The AUC increased to 0.76 by combining MLD, pre IL-8, and TGF-β1 2w/pre ratio compared with 0.62 by MLD alone. Conclusions: We validated that a combination of mean lung dose, pre IL-8 level, and TGF-β1 2w/pre ratio provided a more accurate model to predict the risk of RILT2 compared with MLD alone.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

First-In-Human Validation of CT-Based Proton Range Prediction Using Prompt Gamma Imaging in Prostate Cancer Treatments

Uncertainty in computed tomography (CT)-based range prediction substantially impairs the accuracy of proton therapy. Direct determination of the stopping-power ratio (SPR) from dual-energy CT (DECT) has been proposed (DirectSPR), and initial validation studies in phantoms and biological tissues have proven a high accuracy. However, a thorough validation of range prediction in patients has not yet been achieved by any means. Here, we present the first systematic validation of CT-based proton range prediction in patients using prompt gamma imaging (PGI).

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Systematic validation of non-equilibrium thermochemical models using Bayesian inference

The validation process proposed by Babuška et al. [1] is applied to thermochemical models describing post-shock flow conditions. In this validation approach, experimental data is involved only in the calibration of the models, and the decision process is based on quantities of interest (QoIs) predicted on scenarios that are not necessarily amenable experimentally. Moreover, uncertainties present in the experimental data, as well as those resulting from an incomplete physical model description, are propagated to the QoIs. We investigate four commonly used thermochemical models: a one-temperature model (which assumes thermal equilibrium among all inner modes), and two-temperature models developed by Macheret et al. [2], Marrone and Treanor [3], and Park [4]. Up to 16 uncertain parameters are estimated using Bayesian updating based on the latest absolute volumetric radiance data collected at the Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) installed inside the NASA Ames Research Center. Following the solution of the inverse problems, the forward problems are solved in order to predict the radiative heat flux, QoI, and examine the validity of these models. Our results show that all four models are invalid, but for different reasons: the one-temperature model simply fails to reproduce the data while the two-temperature models exhibit unacceptably large uncertainties in the QoI predictions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Development and validation of a quantitative proton NMR method for the analysis of pregnenolone

Pregnenolone (PREG) is an endogenous steroid frequently sold as an over-the-counter dietary supplement touted to promote neurological and immunological health. While the PREG dietary supplement is added to the diet for health benefits, there are no FDA approved PREG drugs. However, compounded PREG drug products are available to U.S. patients. The FDA works with state regulatory authorities on the oversight of compounding activities, including developing 503A and 503B lists of bulk substances that compounders are permitted to use. PREG is one of the substances publicly nominated to be included on the 503B list. Compounded hormone therapies such as those using PREG are of interest given the lack of standardization in compounded drug products which may increase the possibility of underdosing, overdosing, or contamination. However, no USP monograph currently exists to evaluate the quality of PREG drug substance or product. To address knowledge gaps and assist in quality control, a simple and rapid quantitative proton nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (qNMR) method for the identification and assay of PREG in different types of PREG products was developed and validated. PREG samples were characterized using 1D 1 H and 2D 1 H– 13 C HSQC NMR spectra. The qNMR assay method (taking approximately 10 min per NMR spectrum) was validated for precision, accuracy, specificity, robustness and linearity per ICH Q2(R1) guidance. The method was validated in a range from 0.032 to 3.2 mg/mL. As a proof of concept, seven PREG bulk substance samples, three tablet and two capsule PREG dietary supplements were assessed by the qNMR analytical procedure. NMR data from all tested samples met the expected criteria for identification and assay. The results demonstrate the potential of qNMR for the quality assessment of different types of PREG samples.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Validation of electron backscattering in the MCNP6.3 code

A new electron backscattering validation suite has been developed for the MCNP® code. The calculations in this suite cover both condensed history and single-event transport methods, seven different elemental materials ranging from beryllium to uranium, and incident electron energies from 200 eV to 14.1 MeV. In general, the accuracy of the MCNP code for electron backscattering calculations is energy-dependent. For incident electron energies below 2 keV, the condensed history method is not applied while the single-event method shows poor agreement with experimental measurements due to poor accuracy of the underlying atomic data. For incident energies between 2 keV and 256 keV, the single-event method typically shows better agreement with experiments, while for incident energies above 256 keV the condensed history method gives better accuracy. Additionally, agreement with experimental data is generally worse for low- Z materials such as beryllium and carbon, which may reflect deficiencies in the data or physics underlying electron transport through light elements in the MCNP code. The new electron backscattering validation suite, along with the previously introduced electron stopping power and Lockwood energy deposition validation suites, provide MCNP users with a quantified understanding of the uncertainties in electron transport calculations. Future improvements to electron transport in the MCNP code are necessary for low energies (≤ 2 keV) and for low- Z materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Experimental validation of a high fidelity Monte Carlo neutron transport model of the MIT graphite exponential pile

High-fidelity modeling and simulation were performed for the MIT graphite exponential pile (MGEP) using Monte Carlo neutron transport codes OpenMC and MCNP, and the results were validated by experimental data. The MGEP is being used as the test bed for the design of an autonomous control system for the pile's neutron flux distribution. The main contribution of this work is to generate the training data sets of neutron flux distributions with different locations of control rods that perturb the neutron flux profiles. First, code -to-code cross verification between OpenMC and MCNP was performed to ensure consistency of the numerical modeling within statistical uncertainties. To validate the accuracy of this high-fidelity model, a series of neutron flux measurements were conducted using a Helium-3 (He-3) neutron detector on a mobile platform that is placed inside the pile. Second, the neutron flux profiles were measured in four vertical layers of interest, and compared to the corresponding simulation results. The comparison results shows that the root mean square error is less than 2.5% in the two upper layers, and less than 4.5% in all four measured layers. Here the results validated the accuracy of the modeling and simulation. Finally, the relative change of the neutron flux profiles from moving control rods was analyzed, which identified the layer that has the best sensitivity regarding the control rods movements. Thus, this work identified and provided training data sets of both simulated and experimental neutron flux profiles in the most sensitive layer, paving the path forward to the real-time experimental demonstration of the autonomous control system.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Electromagnetic scattering problems -Numerical issues and new experimental approaches of validation

Electromagnetic scattering problems, thus the question how radiated energy spreads when impinging on an object, are an essential part of wave propagation. Though the Maxwell’s differential equations as starting point, are actually quite simple,the integral formulation of an object’s boundary conditions, respectively the solution for unknown induced currents can only be solved numerically in most cases.As a timely topic of practical importance the scattering of rotating wind turbines is discussed, the numerical description of which is still based on rigorous approximations with yet unspecified accuracy. In this context the issue of validating numerical solutions is addressed, both with reference simulations but in particular with the experimental approach of scaled measurements. For the latter the idea of an incremental validation is proposed allowing a step by step validation of required new mathematical models in scattering theory.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

SCALE 6.2.4 Validation for Light Water Reactor Decay Heat Analysis

Energy release from the decay of radionuclides in nuclear fuel after its discharge from reactor is a critical parameter for design, safety, and licensing analyses of used nuclear fuel storage, transportation, and repository systems. Well-validated computational tools and nuclear data are essential for decay heat prediction. This paper summarizes the validation of the SCALE nuclear analysis code system version 6.2.4, used with ENDF/B-VII.1 libraries, for decay heat analysis of light water reactor used fuel. The experimental data used for validation include full-assembly decay heat measurements that cover assembly burnups of 5 to 51 GWd/tonne U, cooling times after discharge in the 2- to 27-year range, and initial fuel enrichments up to 4 wt% 235U. The comparison between calculated (C) and experimental (E) decay heat showed very good agreement, with an average C/E over all considered measurements of 1.006 (σ = 0.016) for pressurized water reactor and 0.984 (σ = 0.077) for boiling water reactor assembly measurements. The effect of using assembly-average versus axially varying modeling data on the calculated decay heat, important to thermal analyses for used fuel transportation and storage systems, is discussed.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Benchmark of the Chlorine Worth Study Experiments in Support of Chlorine Nuclear Data Validation for Nuclear Criticality Safety

The Chlorine Worth Study (CWS) was a critical experiment to address an urgent need for thermal chlorine nuclear data validation in plutonium systems. This urgent need is tied directly to plutonium recycle and recovery operations in the plutonium facility at Los Alamos National Laboratory, where exceptionally conservative criticality safety limits are used because no credit is taken for the neutron capture by chlorine. The experiment used weapons-grade plutonium metal plates clad in stainless steel, known as the PANN (plutonium aluminum no nickel) ZPPR (zero power physics reactor) plates. The plutonium was reflected and moderated by high-density polyethylene and included combinations of polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and chlorinated polyvinyl chloride (CPVC) as absorbers. The experiment and benchmark included three configurations mimicking 30 g 239 Pu/L plutonium, 300 g 239 Pu/L plutonium, and 600 g 239 Pu/L plutonium in an aqueous chloride solution. Uncertainties in the benchmark included five broad categories: (1) criticality measurement, (2) mass and density, (3) dimensions, (4) material compositions, and (5) positioning. The largest contribution to the overall uncertainties for all three cases came from the material compositions, in particular the PVC and CPVC absorber compositions. A detailed model was created to be a near match (that is within expectations of transport code users) and a simplified model was created to minimize offset dimensions and expedite modeling for code validation. Sample calculations were completed in MCNP6.3 with ENDF/B-VIII.0 and ENDF/B-VII.1 nuclear data. For the detailed and simplified models, the average difference between the computed and experimental k eff was 951 pcm. CWS will serve as the key validation experiment for nuclear criticality safety in support of aqueous chloride operations. The sensitivity to the chlorine capture cross section is orders of magnitude greater than other existing benchmarks. The current limits, as defined by nuclear criticality safety, are 520 g Pu per batch, i.e. the minimum critical mass of the Pu solution infinitely reflected by water [Criticality Handbook: Volume II, (1969)]. This extremely conservative critical mass limit does not credit any neutron capture by chlorine (in particular neutron capture by 35 Cl) and greatly impedes the throughput required for current and future operations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Validation of Kepler's multiple planet candidates. II. Refined statistical framework and descriptions of systems of special interest

We extend the statistical analysis performed by Lissauer et al. in 2012, which demonstrates that the overwhelming majority of Kepler candidate multiple transiting systems (multis) represents true transiting planets, and we develop therefrom a procedure to validate large numbers of planet candidates in multis as bona fide exoplanets. We show that this statistical framework correctly estimates the abundance of false positives already identified around Kepler targets with multiple sets of transit-like signatures based on their abundance around targets with single sets of transit-like signatures. We estimate the number of multis that represent split systems of one or more planets orbiting each component of a binary star system. We use the high reliability rate for multis to validate more than one dozen particularly interesting multi-planet systems herein. Hundreds of additional multi-planet systems are validated in a companion paper by Rowe et al. We note that few very short period (P < 1.6 days) planets orbit within multiple transiting planet systems and discuss possible reasons for their absence. There also appears to be a shortage of planets with periods exceeding a few months in multis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Summary report of the 4th IAEA Technical Meeting on Fusion Data Processing, Validation and Analysis (FDPVA)

The objective of the Fourth Technical Meeting on Fusion Data Processing, Validation and Analysis was to provide a platform during which a set of topics relevant to fusion data processing, validation and analysis are discussed with the view of extrapolating needs to next step fusion devices such as ITER. The validation and analysis of experimental data obtained from diagnostics used to characterize fusion plasmas are crucial for a knowledge-based understanding of the physical processes governing the dynamics of these plasmas. This paper presents the recent progress and achievements in the domain of plasma diagnostics and synthetic diagnostics data analysis (including image processing, regression analysis, inverse problems, deep learning, machine learning, big data and physics-based models for control) reported at the meeting. The progress in these areas highlight trends observed in current major fusion confinement devices. A special focus is dedicated on data analysis requirements for ITER and DEMO with a particular attention paid to artificial intelligence for automatization and improving reliability of control processes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Validation of FAST.Farm Against Large-Eddy Simulations

FAST.Farm is a new midfidelity, multiphysics engineering tool for modeling the power performance and structural loads of wind turbines within a wind farm, including wake and array effects. Previous calibration of the tuneable model parameters of FAST.Farm has shown that its prediction of wake dynamics for a single wind turbine across different atmospheric stability conditions and nacelle-yaw errors matches well with high-fidelity large-eddy simulation at a small fraction of the computational expense. This paper presents a validation of FAST.Farm against large-eddy simulation for a series of cases - independent from those used to support the calibration - considering single-turbine and small wind-farm scenarios, which are both subject to variations in inflow and control. The validation has demonstrated that FAST.Farm reasonably accurately predicts: (1) thrust and power for individual turbines both in isolation and down the row of the small wind farm, (2) wake meandering behavior across different atmospheric conditions, and (3) averaged wake-deficit advection, evolution, and merging effects. As a result, the validation also highlights potential physics that could be improved in FAST.Farm in the future.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Experimental Validation of Models of a Hull-Based Tuned Mass Damper System for a Semisubmersible Floating Offshore Wind Turbine Platform

Floating offshore wind turbine designs can be further optimized if the controller and remaining systems are designed together, known as control co-design. To effectively perform control co-design, modeling tools predicting the influence of the control systems on the response of a system must be validated. This article presents an experimental validation that utilizes a scale model of a semisubmersible platform for an offshore wind turbine that is fitted with adjustable tuned mass dampers. These dampers can be tuned to attenuate either the hull-pitch resonance or the tower-bending resonance. The data from the experiment are used to validate state-of-the-art modeling tools. It is shown that the models capture the overall effects of the tuned mass dampers; however, some models overpredict the reduction in platform pitch motion when the dampers are tuned to the pitch resonance. The relative reduction in the tower-base bending moment is more consistently captured by the models when the dampers are tuned to the tower-bending resonance. However, there are significant differences in the absolute level of tower-base bending moment between the models and the experiment. Much of the differences observed are a consequence of the challenge with accurately predicting the baseline platform resonance motion and the tower-bending moment, which should be addressed in future modeling efforts.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Offshore Wind Energy Validation Experiment Hierarchy

This paper provides a summary of planning work for experiments that will be necessary to address the long-term model validation needs required to meet offshore wind energy deployment goals. Conceptual experiments are identified and laid out in a validation hierarchy for both wind turbine and wind plant applications. Instrumentation needs that will be required for the offshore validation experiments to be impactful are then listed. The document concludes with a nominal vision for how these experiments can be accomplished.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Free kick instead of cross-validation in maximum-likelihood refinement of macromolecular crystal structures

The maximum-likelihood free-kick target, which calculates model error estimates from the work set and a randomly displaced model, proved superior in the accuracy and consistency of refinement of crystal structures compared with the maximum-likelihood cross-validation target, which calculates error estimates from the test set and the unperturbed model. The refinement of a molecular model is a computational procedure by which the atomic model is fitted to the diffraction data. The commonly used target in the refinement of macromolecular structures is the maximum-likelihood (ML) function, which relies on the assessment of model errors. The current ML functions rely on cross-validation. They utilize phase-error estimates that are calculated from a small fraction of diffraction data, called the test set, that are not used to fit the model. An approach has been developed that uses the work set to calculate the phase-error estimates in the ML refinement from simulating the model errors via the random displacement of atomic coordinates. It is called ML free-kick refinement as it uses the ML formulation of the target function and is based on the idea of freeing the model from the model bias imposed by the chemical energy restraints used in refinement. This approach for the calculation of error estimates is superior to the cross-validation approach: it reduces the phase error and increases the accuracy of molecular models, is more robust, provides clearer maps and may use a smaller portion of data for the test set for the calculation of R{sub free} or may leave it out completely.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Inverter Model Validation and Calibration Using Phasor Measurement Unit Data

As the penetration of inverter-based renewable energy resources increases in the power grid, especially at the distribution and microgrid levels, the need to accurately represent them in planning studies increases as well. However, due to the lack of well-established standard procedures, and vendor reluctance towards the detailed sharing of proprietary models, automated dynamic model validation and parameter calibration tools for inverter based resources (IBRs) remain scarce. This work presents a model validation and parameter calibration platform for representing IBRs with generic phasor-domain models. Phasor measurements of power system events are used for continuous validation using the data playback method, and model parameters are re-calibrated if a significant mismatch between measurements and model response is observed. Unique features of the proposed platform include- (a) an iterative Bayesian optimization approach towards parameter calibration to address a possible mismatch between the structures of generic models implemented in simulation softwares and actual commercial inverters, (b) error metrics designed to account for a possible mismatch between the time resolution of simulation and measurements, and (c) analysis of the measurement-simulation mismatch to provide guidance to engineering personnel regarding model shortcomings. The performance of the platform has been illustrated using both simulated data and field measurements to validate/calibrate inverter models in GridLAB-D.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Validation of a cyclic plasticity computational method using fatigue full-field deformation measurements

The evolution of crack tip displacement and strain fields during uniaxial, room temperature, low-cycle fatigue experiments of Nickel superalloy compact tension specimens was measured by a digital image correlation approach and was further used to validate a cyclic plasticity model and corresponding deformation calculations made by a finite elements methodology. The experimental results provided data trends for the opening displacements and near crack tip strains as function of cycles. A finite element model was developed to capture test conditions for a measured crack size. The model captures crack tip plasticity by using a constitutive model calibrated against stress-strain measurements performed on a round bar. Similar quantities were extracted from the model predictions to compare with the digital image correlation measurements for model validation purposes. This type of direct comparison demonstrated that the computational model was capable to adequately capture the crack opening displacements at various stages of the specimen's fatigue life, providing in this way a tool for quantitative cyclic plasticity model validation. In addition, this integrated experimental-computational approach provides a framework to accelerate our understanding related to interactions of fatigue test data and models, as well as ways to inform one another.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗