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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 667 records · Page 37
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Water use in a young Pinus taeda bioenergy plantation: Effect of intensive management on stand evapotranspiration

Abstract The increasing demand for plant‐derived bioenergy is projected to expand tree plantations with intensive silviculture and improved tree genetics. These silvicultural practices result in faster stand development and canopy closure, which may also influence the systems' water dynamics. Here, we studied the evapotranspiration (ET) of a young (5 years old) intensively managed loblolly pine ( Pinus taeda ) stand and investigated the components of ET to determine its contribution to overall water use. We also compared ET with plantations that received less intensive management to determine whether our stand used more water. We used the eddy covariance method to estimate ecosystem‐level total ET (ET EC ), while plot‐level estimates of ET (ET P ) were obtained via soil lysimeters, sap flow sensors, and throughfall collectors, enabling measurement of the components of ET. Soil evaporation (Es) was the largest component of ET P (36%) over the course of the study, while transpiration and canopy interception accounted for 27% and 22%, respectively. Es decreased with stand development, while transpiration and canopy interception increased. Leaf area index (LAI) and precipitation were the most significant factors controlling ET and its components. Compared to previous studies in different sites that have similar age but lower LAI, our stand had higher water use. This high water use in the early stages of stand development was primarily due to high Es before the canopy was fully developed. While there are potential sources of uncertainty when comparing ET EC and the component fluxes in ET P , results from the two methods were not significantly different. This study had the advantage of using multiple methods to understand and verify the component processes that contribute to ET. Therefore, we recommend that multiple measurement techniques be used in the long‐term observation of ET, and in particular for the evaluation of the impact that intensively managed forests have on water resources in the southeastern United States.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Better practices for inferring ecosystem water use strategy from eddy covariance data

Eddy covariance data are critical for inferring ecosystem water use strategies. Yet, such inferences are sensitive to a range of assumptions applied across studies, hindering our understanding of water use strategies within and across eddy covariance sites. A recent analysis across 151 FLUXNET2015 and AmeriFlux-FLUXNET datasets found that poor model performance was the key driver of non-robust inferences of ecosystem water use strategies. Here, we leverage this previous analysis to (i) identify the specific assumptions that improve inference model performance across most sites, (ii) explain the mechanisms behind the performance improvements, and (iii) check whether better performance improves water use inference. We find that the common practice of fitting a model to canopy conductance (G c ) derived from the evapotranspiration (ET) observations, rather than to observed ET itself, artificially amplifies data errors and degrades the model performance. Next, accounting for vegetation dynamics by applying a growing season filter or incorporating satellite LAI data improves performance, but the former practice may remove soil water stress periods. Lastly, using the leaf-to-air vapor pressure deficit (VPD l ) derived from ET observations as a model input may artificially inflate performance. Based on these results, we recommend selecting observed ET (rather than derived G c ) as the response variable, carefully accounting for vegetation dynamics, and avoiding derived VPD l as a model input; these best practices improve model performance by c. 20% and robustness by c. 80% across all eddy covariance sites. Nevertheless, the performance improvements do not always correspond to more robust inference of water use strategies, as model parameter selection and surface energy budget closure corrections still strongly influence the ecosystem water use parameter estimation in a site-specific manner.

AmeriFlux↗
DOE OSTI2020

Winners are not keepers: Characterizing household engagement, gains, and energy patterns in demand response using machine learning in the United States

Demand-response programs can help utilities manage rapidly evolving electric grids, but these programs are subject to the complexities of human behavior. This paper explores a novel method for uncovering heterogeneity in households. In this work, we use a machine-learning method known as a Conditional Inference Tree (c-tree) algorithm to categorize households based on their energy behavior characteristics collected via smart meters, and explore how this translates through into heterogeneity in their real-world response to a DR program. Using data from randomized controlled trial, we generate estimates of the changes in energy use caused by the program within each household group. Our results show that the c-tree approach differentiates households by their energy-use characteristics in a way that increases the spread in enrollment rates and critical peak reduction among household groups, compared with the spreads achieved via several conventional segmentation methods. Thus, the c-tree analysis enables the most tailored targeting of major potential energy savers and could provide the greatest increase in cost-effectiveness of household recruitment into DR programs. Our results also offer fresh insights into the relationships between household energy behavior characteristics – such as peak energy use and “structural winningness” (the ability to save money under a DR program without changing energy-use behaviors) – and household decisions about enrolling in DR programs and reducing energy use. Our research also demonstrates the potential of smart meter data, combined with machine learning and econometric methods, to provide significant value to utilities, program implementers, researchers, and other stakeholders.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Typologies of actionable climate information and its use

Developing actionable climate information and integrating it into decision-making are two crucial elements for promoting effective societal responses to climate change. However, what constitutes actionable climate information, and how it is used, varies based on the actors, systems, and scales that are relevant to specific decisions. Yet, the terms ‘actionable climate information’ or ‘use of climate information’ are used abstractly. There is a lack of holistic understanding of the various types of information that can be deemed as usable by different users, and the different ways in which they may be used in decision-making. Typologies or generalizable categorizations can help both knowledge producers and users to better envision the entire landscape of climate information and its uses and can help to reduce the time and cost of actionable knowledge production. Through systematic coding and analysis of ~ 4 years of co-production engagements between climate scientists and resource managers, this paper presents empirically derived typologies of actionable climate information and its use, and explores whether certain uses are better informed by specific types of climate information. These typologies provide a valuable starting point for climate information producers, users, and boundary spanners working on climate-informed resource management, to reduce some of the time-intensive elements of the process.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Intervening alcohol marketing to reduce harmful alcohol use and lessons learned from the theory of changes: Case studies in Thailand

Objectives Globally, the burden of disease caused by alcohol use has been steadily increasing, including in Thailand. In this study, we aim to test the effectiveness of Anderson et al.‘s suggested three approaches to change the collective social norms, which comprise of: (1) providing information and an understanding about alcohol use behaviour, its causes and distribution; (2) focusing strategies on groups rather than individuals; and (3) strengthening supportive laws, regulations and approaches. Study design We employed a mixed-methods approach. Evidence was gathered from literature review and in-depth interviews with key individuals who are responsible for community-based interventions to alcohol marketing strategies in Thailand. Methods We chose to focus on two case studies in Nan and Surin provinces, where hospital-based longitudinal data (8 years) were available. Changes in casualties related to the harmful use of alcohol, resulting from interactions between community-based interventions and alcohol marketing during the time of annual festivals were investigated. We employed the theory of change (ToC) defined by Vogel to guide the data collection and analysis. We reviewed literature from online databases and grey literature to generate causal-loop diagrams. Results We created a causal-loop diagram to describe the complexity of harmful alcohol use, its related factors, context, interventions and outcomes. Over the decade between 2006 and 2015, community-based strategies led to a substantial reduction of casualties (initially a 50% reduction, rising to an 80–90% reduction by the end of the study period) during the time of the festivals. Conclusions The reduction in injuries and fatalities could be a result of the concerted actions, including legal sanctions of alcohol beverage sales and advertisement, and public education to raise awareness and impart knowledge of the harmful use of alcohol. The actions were organised by a coalition of civil society, health professionals, public authorities and community leaders using hospital-based data on the adverse effects of harmful alcohol use to mobilise political support at the provincial level. The availability of long-term financial support as a catalytic source of funds and the presence of a comprehensive alcohol control act enabled framing and mobilisation of local resources and political support.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Boiler Replacement with Air-Source Heat Pump Boiler and Electric Boiler Backup

Building on the successfully completed effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy's ResStock TM and ComStock TM models over the past three years, the objective of this work is to produce national data sets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of analysis questions. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, electrification, and demand flexibility end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency variables that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, electrification, or demand flexibility measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each timestep. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual sub hourly energy consumption of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology and results of the baseline model are discussed in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project. This documentation focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure—boiler replacement by air-source heat pump boiler. This measure replaces space heating natural gas boilers by air-source heat pump boilers when applicable and helps quantify the decarbonization as well as the energy savings potential from the replacement. The measure resulted higher savings in natural gas consumption compared to the increase in electricity consumption, with a ratio of 2.9. The total natural gas energy consumption was reduced by 20%, whereas the total electricity consumption was increased by 2.5%.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comprehensive Land Use and Environmental Stewardship

Comprehensive Land Use and Environmental Stewardship (CLUES) Report serves as a summary document of the land use and environmental stewardship activities occurring on the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Site (Desert) and the Research and Education Campus (REC) within Idaho Falls. Land and facility use planning and decisions at the INL Site are guided by a comprehensive planning process in accordance with the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) Order 430.1C, “Real Property Asset Management,” which states "Establish a data-driven, risk-informed, performance-based approach to the life-cycle management of real property assets that aligns the real property portfolio with DOE mission needs; acquire, manage, positively account for, and dispose of real property assets in a safe, secure, cost-effective, and sustainable manner; and ensure the real property portfolio is appropriately sized, aligned, and in the proper condition to support efficient mission execution." Land use planning, like Campus Master Planning and 5-Year Facility Planning, provides a means for better, more sustainable use of the INL Site in a coordinated effort to ensure current and future mission needs are met, including acquisition, recapitalization, maintenance, disposition, real property utilization and long-term stewardship. This document and all functions of INL are guided by the DOE Vision for INL and the INL Mission and builds on the baseline established in the FY 2015 CLUES Report. However, it delivers a revised structure with focus on new resource management zones, which provide organization of key management considerations and access restrictions to optimize land use and environmental stewardship. A new set of thematic Guiding Principles presented in this report provide the intent and sustainable management direction to protect the INL Site natural environment. They demonstrate that the mission and vision of DOE and INL can be realized with inclusion of first of a kind technology, private sector development, and globally recognized testing and demonstration. This CLUES Report encourages comprehensive management decision-making with additional resource discussions for sustainability, the built environment, and the ecological landscape at the INL Site. Enhanced resource considerations and trends emphasize the importance of air, land use, environmental, subsurface, and cultural resources. The INL Site supports exceptional and interdependent resources. A diversity of bat species are accommodated by culturally significant caves distributed around the Site. Big game species like elk, deer, and moose seek vegetation communities which are protected by long-term stewardship and monitoring programs.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

From Simple Labels to Time-Use Integrations: Supporting the Spectrum of Qualitative Travel Behavior Data

In transportation research, applications of travel behavior data collection are context-specific and require different types of qualitative inputs. These inputs can be viewed as spanning a spectrum of user burden and data quality, from simple trip labels to complex time-use surveys. However, each currently active smartphone-based travel diary platform appears to only support one type of qualitative input, and the effort required for customization is unclear. In this paper, we characterize the spectrum by defining four canonical use cases: (i) trip labels, (ii) trip questionnaire, (iii) counterfactual trips, and (iv) time-use surveys. We then outline a mechanism for supporting configurable user inputs on the same underlying smartphone-based sensing mechanism and demonstrate that it can support all the use cases without any code changes. We further demonstrate that the flexible data model that underpins this mechanism can enable real-time monitoring and analysis. Finally, we evaluate per-user data collection and engagement metrics for large-scale deployments of three canonical use cases, spanning 10 programs, 435 users, and 251,041 trips, and a maximum duration of 800 days. Future efforts may support additional use cases through an expanded configuration and provide greater insight into user engagement. We hope that these insights enable the research community to look at qualitative inputs through a new lens and experiment with novel use cases to fill in the spectrum.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,POWER TRANSMISSION AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

A combined experimental and numerical approach that eliminates the non-uniqueness associated with the Johnson-Cook parameters obtained using inverse methods

Abstract Johnson-Cook constitutive model is a commonly used material model for machining simulations. The model includes five parameters that capture the initial yield stress, strain-hardening, strain-rate hardening, and thermal softening behavior of the material. These parameters are difficult to determine using experiments since the conditions observed during machining (such as high strain-rates of the order of $$10^5$$ 10 5 /sec - $$10^6$$ 10 6 /sec) are challenging to recreate in the laboratory. To address this problem, several researchers have recently proposed inverse approaches where a combination of experiments and analytical models are used to predict the Johnson-Cook parameters. The errors between the measured cutting forces, chip thicknesses and temperatures and those predicted by analytical models are minimized and the parameters are determined. In this work, it is shown that only two of the five Johnson-Cook parameters can be determined uniquely using inverse approaches. Two different algorithms, namely, Adaptive Memory Programming for Global Optimization (AMPGO) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), are used for this purpose. The extended Oxley’s model is used as the analytical tool for optimization. For determining a parameter’s value, a large range for each parameter is provided as an input to the algorithms. The algorithms converge to several different sets of values for the five Johnson-Cook parameters when all the five parameters are considered as unknown in the optimization algorithm. All of these sets, however, yield the same chip shape and cutting forces in FEM simulations. Further analyses show that only the strain-rate and thermal softening parameters can be determined uniquely and the three parameters present in the strain-hardening term of the Johnson-Cook model cannot be determined uniquely using the inverse method. A combined experimental and numerical approach is proposed to eliminate this determine all parameters uniquely.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Establishing performance metrics for quantitative non-targeted analysis: a demonstration using per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances

Abstract Non-targeted analysis (NTA) is an increasingly popular technique for characterizing undefined chemical analytes. Generating quantitative NTA (qNTA) concentration estimates requires the use of training data from calibration “surrogates,” which can yield diminished predictive performance relative to targeted analysis. To evaluate performance differences between targeted and qNTA approaches, we defined new metrics that convey predictive accuracy, uncertainty (using 95% inverse confidence intervals), and reliability (the extent to which confidence intervals contain true values). We calculated and examined these newly defined metrics across five quantitative approaches applied to a mixture of 29 per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). The quantitative approaches spanned a traditional targeted design using chemical-specific calibration curves to a generalizable qNTA design using bootstrap-sampled calibration values from “global” chemical surrogates. As expected, the targeted approaches performed best, with major benefits realized from matched calibration curves and internal standard correction. In comparison to the benchmark targeted approach, the most generalizable qNTA approach (using “global” surrogates) showed a decrease in accuracy by a factor of ~4, an increase in uncertainty by a factor of ~1000, and a decrease in reliability by ~5%, on average. Using “expert-selected” surrogates ( n = 3) instead of “global” surrogates ( n = 25) for qNTA yielded improvements in predictive accuracy (by ~1.5×) and uncertainty (by ~70×) but at the cost of further-reduced reliability (by ~5%). Overall, our results illustrate the utility of qNTA approaches for a subclass of emerging contaminants and present a framework on which to develop new approaches for more complex use cases. Graphical Abstract

Pu, Shirley (ORCID:0000000201223797)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Calibration of urban building energy model using smart meter data for district peak load prediction

Urban building energy modeling (UBEM) is a powerful approach to assessing baseline building energy performance and retrofits with new technologies across building stocks in cities. However, the accuracy of UBEM is often constrained by the limited availability of reliable data about building characteristics and operations, such as envelope efficiency levels, HVAC system performance, and end-use load patterns. Existing research has performed UBEM calibration using annual or monthly energy consumption data, which falls short when higher-resolution time series applications are needed, such as peak load prediction for utility operation planning. This study presents a new framework for calibrating building energy models at urban scale using smart meter data, targeting the accurate prediction of summer peak electricity loads to support robust grid planning. The framework first integrates various data sources to enhance baseline input assumptions for building models, and then calibrates the baseline models through a pattern-matching approach. A case study using CityBES and two years of AMI data from over 9000 residential customers in Portland, Oregon, demonstrated the workflow and its effectiveness. The calibrated models achieved a daily peak load mean absolute percentage error of 2.6 % during the heatwave in the calibration year, and 2.0 % in the validation year using another year of AMI data. Using the calibrated models, we analyzed the demand flexibility potential of the district building stock as an application of UBEM calibration. The findings affirm the appropriate use of UBEM for peak electric load forecasting and demand side management at the utility distribution system level.

AMI data↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data-driven surrogates for high dimensional models using Gaussian process regression on the Grassmann manifold

This paper introduces a surrogate modeling scheme based on Grassmannian manifold learning to be used for cost-efficient predictions of high-dimensional stochastic systems. The method exploits subspace-structured features of each solution by projecting it onto a Grassmann manifold. This point-wise linear dimensionality reduction harnesses the structural information to assess the similarity between solutions at different points in the input parameter space. The method utilizes a solution clustering approach in order to identify regions of the parameter space over which solutions are sufficiently similarly such that they can be interpolated on the Grassmannian. In this clustering, the reduced-order solutions are partitioned into disjoint clusters on the Grassmann manifold using the eigen-structure of properly defined Grassmannian kernels and, the Karcher mean of each cluster is estimated. Then, the points in each cluster are projected onto the tangent space with origin at the corresponding Karcher mean using the exponential mapping. For each cluster, a Gaussian process regression model is trained that maps the input parameters of the system to the reduced solution points of the corresponding cluster projected onto the tangent space. Using this Gaussian process model, the full-field solution can be efficiently predicted at any new point in the parameter space. In certain cases, the solution clusters will span disjoint regions of the parameter space. In such cases, for each of the solution clusters we utilize a second, density-based spatial clustering to group their corresponding input parameter points in the Euclidean space. The proposed method is applied to two numerical examples. Here, the first is a nonlinear stochastic ordinary differential equation with uncertain initial conditions where the surrogate is used to predict the time history solution. The second involves modeling of plastic deformation in a model amorphous solid using the Shear Transformation Zone theory of plasticity, where the proposed surrogate is used to predict the full strain field of a material specimen under large shear strains.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Chemistry imaging and distribution analysis of rare earth elements in coal using LIBS and LA-ICP-MS instruments

Currently, demand for rare earth elements (REEs) increased significantly. Coal is actively evaluated as potential economic sources for extraction of REEs. Here, in this work, laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) was evaluated for rapid estimation of REEs content and their distribution in the natural coal samples. The results were compared with similar laser ablation–inductively coupled plasma–mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) measurements. Thirteen coal samples (nine standard samples and five natural samples) were used in this study. Powder samples were pressed into pellets while coal chunks were directly ablated for data recording. Pellets of the powder standard samples were used to optimize the data acquisition system and then data recorded with this optimized system was used to identify the proper data acquisition and analysis models. After establishing the proper data acquisition system and analysis model using the standard samples, natural coal samples in powder form and their chunks were utilized to record LIBS and LA-ICP-MS spectra. Multivariate calibration models were developed using four of the natural samples, which were evaluated by predicting the REE content in the fifth sample. Principal component analysis was performed on the LIBS data obtained from the natural samples and it classified all the samples with high accuracy. Two-dimensional (2D) elemental mapping on coal chunk samples was also performed using both LIBS and LA-ICP-MS to study the distribution of REEs in the samples. The resulting elemental images and their correlations can be used to infer mineral distributions.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2020

Identification of hot water end-use process of electric water heaters from energy measurements

This paper presents an algorithm for the identification of parameters for a stochastic hot water end-use process that drives a homogeneous population of thermostatically controlled electric water heaters (EWH). Usually, only metered interval consumption data (kWh) is collected and the hot water end-use process is unobservable to utility and aggregators. However, the availability of EWHs for demand response (DR) is closely coupled with the hot water end-use process. In this context, the hot water end-use process is modeled as a two-state Markov chain (Use / No use), which causes the thermostatic ON-OFF switching process to behave as a Markov renewal process (MRP). A set of first passage-time problems is developed to obtain the moments of the transition probability densities of the MRP. These problems are addressed by establishing a system of coupled partial differential equations characterizing the temperature evolution of the EWH population. A key quantity in the methodology for estimating the parameters is the total time an EWH is ON within a period of interest. It is referred to as the total busy time. Total busy time in this approach is a random variable for which analytical expressions of the moments are developed as a function of the metered window length. The latter expressions become the basis of a hot water demand model identification algorithm which is validated using agent-based simulations of EWHs.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Levelized Cost of CO 2 Captured Using Five Physical Solvents in Pre-combustion Applications

Aspen Plus v8.8 was used to perform techno-economic analysis (TEA) of a CO 2 capture process from a typical fuel gas stream in a 543-MW pre-combustion power plant using five different physical solvents (Selexol, PEGPDMS-1, NMP, [aPy][Tf 2 N] and [hmim][Tf 2 N]). The process included a countercurrent packed-bed absorber operating under high-pressure over a wide range of temperatures and three pressure-swing flash drums for solvent regeneration. Furthermore, two packings, Mellapak 250Y and IMTP50, were used and the Levelized costs of CO 2 captured (LCOC) were calculated. The simulation results indicated that using Mellapak 250Y exhibited lower LCOC values than those when using IMTP50 for the five solvents under all conditions used as it offered better mass transfer. The CO 2 capture process carried out at low temperatures showed lower LCOC values than those at higher temperatures due to the increased CO 2 solubility in the solvents at lower temperatures, requiring smaller absorber diameter and lower solvent circulation rates, which offset the cooling requirements. Comparing the lowest LCOC values for the five solvents, the hydrophobic PEGPDMS-1 solvent was the most promising one compared to the other four solvents, due to its lowest capital and operating costs and noncorrosive, which enabled using less expensive materials for the process equipment.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Real-time optimization of multi-cell industrial evaporative cooling towers using machine learning and particle swarm optimization

Existing electrical generating stations must operate with greater flexibility due to increasing renewable energy penetration on the electrical grid, and many coal-fired power stations have transitioned away from baseload operation to load-following operation to aid in grid stability. In cases where multiple independently controlled cooling tower cells are used in parallel for the cooling purposes of such stations, there is an opportunity to increase plant efficiency through data-driven optimization across their full load ranges. This work presents a novel application of real-time optimization using machine learning and particle swarm optimization on a multi-cell induced-draft cooling tower servicing a coal-fired power station under variable load. This is the first work to demonstrate simultaneous optimization of a multi-cell cooling tower, in addition to using machine learning for closed-loop control on a cooling tower. A novel control configuration is presented that ensures original control logic is not adversely affected and that the overall plant process is not disrupted using only existing hardware and operational data. To verify this methodology, the 12 independent cooling tower cells are simulated in parallel using historic operating data to demonstrate the effectiveness of real-time optimization compared to current practice. An artificial neural network is trained to predict overall cooling tower power consumption using only operational data and ambient conditions with an R2 value of greater than 0.96. The real-time optimization using particle swarm yields 6.7% annual energy usage savings compared to current practices, although the extent of the real-time savings varies greatly with both plant load and environmental conditions. This is particularly significant for a variable load situation because frequent ramping typically results in reduced overall efficiency. Furthermore, this proposed AI-based solution presents an opportunity to improve the overall heat rate of a load-following coal-fired power plant without the need to perform extensive first-principles modeling or add additional hardware to the cooling tower, resulting in more resources conserved and less overall emissions per unit of electricity generated.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Combined selection of the dynamic model and modeling error in nonlinear aeroelastic systems using Bayesian Inference

Here, we report a Bayesian framework for concurrent selection of physics-based models and (modeling) error models. We investigate the use of colored noise to capture the mismatch between the predictions of calibrated models and observational data that cannot be explained by measurement error alone within the context of Bayesian estimation for stochastic ordinary differential equations. Proposed models are characterized by the average data-fit, a measure of how well a model fits the measurements, and the model complexity measured using the Kullback–Leibler divergence. The use of a more complex error models increases the average data-fit but also increases the complexity of the combined model, possibly over-fitting the data. Bayesian model selection is used to find the optimal physical model as well as the optimal error model. The optimal model is defined using the evidence, where the average data-fit is balanced by the complexity of the model. The effect of colored noise process is illustrated using a nonlinear aeroelastic oscillator representing a rigid NACA0012 airfoil undergoing limit cycle oscillations due to complex fluid–structure interactions. Several quasi-steady and unsteady aerodynamic models are proposed with colored noise or white noise for the model error. The use of colored noise improves the predictive capabilities of simpler models.

42 ENGINEERING↗