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At least 667 records · Page 37

Adoption of perennial energy crops in the US Midwest: Causal and heterogeneous determinants

The success of a bioenergy policy relies largely on the wide adoption of perennial energy crops at the farm-scale. This study uses survey data to examine potential adoption decisions by farmers in the US Midwest and the causal effects of various direct and indirect influencing factors, especially heterogeneous preferences of farmers. A Bayesian network (BN) model is developed to delineate the causal-relationship between farmers adoption decisions and the influencing factors. Here, we find a dominating role of economic factors and a non-negligible impact of non-economic factors, such as the perceived environmental benefits and the extent of familiarity with perennial energy crops. To examine the effect of heterogeneity in farmer preferences, we classify the surveyed farmers into four categories based on their attitudes toward the economic, social, and environmental dimensions of perennial energy crops. We identify statistically significant between-group differences in the responses of the four types of farmers to the various influencing factors. Our findings contribute to disentangling the complicated motivations that will influence perennial energy crop adoption decisions and provide implications for more targeted policy development that need to consider the heterogeneous drivers of farmer decisions about land use.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Peak cooling load shift capability of a thermal energy storage system integrated with an active insulation system in US climate zones

This study aims to evaluate a thermal energy storage (TES) system integrated with an active insulation system (AIS) to form a TES + AIS integrated wall system as a partition and as a secondary cooling system to shift the peak load and reduce cooling energy consumption. To understand and demonstrate its cooling performance, the TES + AIS integrated wall system was installed in an office building in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. To investigate the effect of the TES + AIS integrated wall system in a typical office building and various climate zones, the US Department of Energy’s prototype office building model was modified to accommodate the proposed system. In this work, results showed that the minimum size of the proposed system to achieve energy savings varies depending on climate conditions. The minimum size of the proposed system for cooling energy saving and shifting peak cooling demand in climate zones 2, 3, and 5 is 29.7 m 2 , whereas it is 44.6 m 2 in zones 4 and 6. By installing the minimum size of the proposed system, 11.3 % to 16.4 % of cooling energy can be shifted during discharge hours in a representative summer day.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Relationships among forest type, watershed characteristics, and watershed ET in rural basins of the Southeastern US

Evapotranspiration (ET) typically accounts for 60–70% of precipitation in rural basins of the Southeastern United States. Since 1930, substantial reforestation of former croplands has occurred in the Piedmont and Appalachian Highlands in this area, leading to an expected increase in ET and reduction in baseflow. This study examines relationships between basin vegetative cover, abiotic factors, and water-budget partitioning in 45 USGS-gaged rural basins in the Southeastern US. Data are for the 1982–2014 water years with watersheds having ≥40% forest cover, crystalline-rock aquifers, minimal basin water export, and no large reservoirs. Long-term annual ET is calculated using the water-budget equation (ET = P-Q), which ranges from 641 to 971 mm/yr. (median 824). Vegetative cover and other basin variables are regressed against ET to quantify the effects of vegetative and forest types. Budyko analysis is employed to compare the watersheds and to evaluate factors affecting residuals. Regression analysis indicates that ET behavior is best explained by abiotic factors (i.e., precipitation and temperature) but forest-cover type also has some effect. Evergreen forest cover is less common than deciduous or mixed forest but has a positive relationship with ET, while deciduous and total forest have negative relationships with ET. Comparison of water-balance and Budyko-estimated ET indicates that deciduous and total forest are associated with negative residuals while evergreen is not significant. Furthermore, these results show that: forest cover effects on basin ET are complicated; forest-cover type is important for water-yield management in this region, and abiotic basin characteristics exert stronger control than forest cover on ET.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

The energy system transformation needed to achieve the US long-term strategy

The authors designed and executed the integrated assessment modeling for the United States long-term strategy. They bring diverse expertise to the modeling and analysis of United States decarbonization. Russell Horowitz, Matthew Binsted, and Haewon McJeon are scientists at the Joint Global Change Research Institute, a partnership between Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and the University of Maryland. Allen Fawcett, James McFarland, and Morgan Browning are economists at the Environmental Protection Agency’s Climate Economics Branch. Claire Henly is White House Fellow at the Office of the US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate. Nathan Hultman is the Director of the Center for Global Sustainability at the University of Maryland.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

What Can We Learn from US National Transmission Studies?

Multiple US regions have announced new electricity transmission plans, are actively revisiting the future role of transmission, and could benefit from findings from recent national-scale transmission studies. A review of seven national studies shows that significant transmission expansion is cost-optimal for serving new demand, integrating additional resources, and supporting grid reliability. A majority of the reviewed scenarios, which span a range of policy and technology assumptions, include at least a doubling of the transmission system by 2050. The national studies find substantial net system cost savings from transmission expansion and high benefit-cost ratios for transmission investments. The results are derived through multi-value, nationally coordinated, co-optimized, multi-scenario modeling, which is an approach that could yield lower-cost pathways compared to current industry planning practices.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Introducing LibXC into GAMESS (US)

The interface between LibXC and GAMESS (US), which enables the latter to perform calculations with >200 popular density functional approximations, including recently proposed r 2 SCAN, M06-SX and CAM-QTP00, is presented. The LibXC-GAMESS interface allows users to specify custom functionals as linear combinations of the present ones, exact exchange (producing hybrids) and MP2-correlation (producing double-hybrids).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Key insights from US Department of Energy Better Plants workforce development bootcamps (2022–2025)

This study examines the effectiveness of the US Department of Energy’s Better Plants Program Bootcamps, which are designed to enhance participants’ technical skills in improving energy efficiency and optimizing operations in manufacturing facilities. Through the analysis of survey data collected from 529 participants across 9 bootcamps, the research investigates the motivations, benefits, and demographic trends of attendees. The findings reveal that skill acquisition and improvement are primary drivers for participation, with key benefits including hands-on training on diagnostic equipment and software tools, networking opportunities, and access to technical resources. The analysis shows strong participation from sectors characterized by high energy consumption and employment, such as chemical and transportation equipment manufacturing. Over 50% of participants have job titles that include “EHS” or “Energy” showing their key roles in leading energy efficiency and energy management efforts in manufacturing. Furthermore, the analysis highlights the distribution of participants across managerial, engineering, and technical roles, revealing a higher representation of managers and engineers. This observation suggests a need for targeted outreach to engage technicians, equipment operators, maintenance staff, and floor workers to ensure comprehensive workforce development. The post-bootcamp survey showed that the participants highly valued the opportunities for peer learning and idea exchange, and the benefits they gained from them. This research contributes to the advancement of manufacturing education by demonstrating the efficacy of specialized training in addressing critical industry challenges and fostering a more competent and empowered workforce.

Energy efficiency↗

AIS-based characterization of navigation conflicts along the US Atlantic Coast prior to development of wind energy

This study characterizes navigation conflicts in a region with a large traffic volume along the US Atlantic Coast, utilizing Automated Identification System (AIS) data for 2010. The region includes areas proposed for wind energy development. The characterization could be useful in evaluating the effect of offshore wind areas on navigation conflicts. The study processes the AIS data to provide pairwise comparisons of vessel interactions (encounters and near-misses) as they occurred. Using the vessel encounter data, analyses are made using a ‘blind’ vessel assumption to evaluate the potential for both near-misses and collisions. Then statistical analyses are made to estimate the point values and uncertainty for each type of encounter (crossing, head-on, overtaking). Examination of the frequency/number of collisions from actual observations is made. The examination of actual near-misses, potential near-misses, and potential collisions provides comparable results in the number of near-misses and collisions. The potential near-miss analyses include an examination of the timing of responses made by vessels to prevent near-misses. This informed the statistical analysis but may also have utility in the simulation of navigation conflicts.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Numerical wave modeling for operational and survival analyses of wave energy converters at the US Navy Wave Energy Test Site in Hawaii

The US Navy Wave Energy Test Site (WETS) is currently operating three grid-connected berths off Marine Corps Base Hawaii in support of technological development through scaled-model testing and pre-commercial prototyping. The location on the east shore of Oahu is open to year-round wind waves and seasonal north swells as well as severe seas from subtropical systems and hurricanes. We have assembled a spectral wave model system comprising WAVEWATCH III and SWAN on a hierarchy of global, regional, and nearshore computational grids. With wind forcing from global forecast and rean-alysis datasets as well as their regional downscaling, the system produces operational 7-day wave forecasts and a long-term hindcast. The daily forecasts, validated with real-time buoy measurements, facilitate safe deployment, operation, and retrieval of wave energy converters (WECs). The wave hindcast from 1979 to 2017 defines the intra- and inter-annual variations for statistical analysis of sea states and energy resources. Due to limited occurrences of hurricanes in Hawaii waters, their wind forcing is determined parametrically with simulated tracks from climate model downscaling. Finally, systematic analysis of the hindcast and simulation datasets provides significant wave heights from trade winds, swells, subtropical systems, and hurricanes with return periods up to 100 years for WECs survival analysis.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Development of high concentration photovoltaics (HCPV) power plants in the US Southwest: Economic assessment and sensitivity analysis

High concentration photovoltaic (HCPV) technologies offer several advantages over typical PV systems. In this study, a detailed economic assessment and sensitivity analysis of deploying HCPV plants in the US southwest is performed. To do this, a 20 MWdc HCPV power plant is designed using the System Advisor Model (SAM) and is evaluated from both technical and financial aspects. The sensitivity analysis shows that reducing the installed cost per capacity of the HCPV system can significantly improve the economics and reduce the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and levelized power purchase agreement (LPPA). Also, providing proper incentives including both investment tax credits (ITC) and production tax credit (PTC), loan debt ratio, and interest rate are among the most influential parameters. The analysis shows that with the 30% ITC, the LCOE, and LPPA of the designed HCPV projects are between $65.4/MWh and $69.3/MWh and between $71.0/MWh and $75.2/MWh, respectively. The estimated LCOE and LPPA values are almost 50% higher than the utility-scale PV projects. If proper funding is provided to continue the support of the HCPV system, they would become more economical and competitive with PV plants. Federal and state government policies must also be established to advocate HCPV systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Synthesis of uranium mixed anion compounds synthesized using the Boron-Chalcogen Mixture method: Ba 6 Co 6 U 0·9 1S 13·5 O 0.5 and Ba 5·47 K 0·53 Zn 6 US 13·5 O 0.5

Mixed anion compounds have exhibited interesting structures and properties that differ from compounds only incorporating a single anion in their composition. Unfortunately, difficulties in the synthetic methods used to obtain these materials has slowed the evolution of this field, prompting investigations into alternate synthetic pathways to these materials. Our recently establish Boron-Chalcogen Mixture (BCM) method, which was originally developed for the synthesis of pure actinide chalcogenides from oxides, has been adapted to achieve the partial oxide to sulfide conversion of Ba 2 MUO 6 (M = Co, Zn) which resulted in two new uranium (IV/V) oxysulfide compounds, Ba 6 Co 6 U 0·91 S 13·5 O 0.5 and Ba 5·47 K 0·53 Zn 6 US 13·5 O 0.5 These compounds crystallize in the tetragonal crystal system adopting the space group I4/mcm. Finally, their syntheses, crystal structures, and trends observed in the pursuit of these new mixed anion compounds are reported.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Seasonality and Declining Intensity of Methane Emissions from the Permian and Nearby US Oil and Gas Basins

We quantify weekly methane emissions and trends from oil and gas production in the US Permian Basin for 2019-2023, and in nearby basins for 2022-2023, by analytical inversion of Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) satellite observations with the Integrated Methane Inversion (IMI) at 25 km resolution. Permian oil and gas emissions averaged 4.0 ± 1.1 Tg a-1 over 2019-2023, with large seasonal variation but little interannual variability. Methane intensity fell from 5.2 to 3.2% as production surged. Intensity in the New Mexico Permian fell from 4.5 to 2.1%, approaching the state's 2026 target of <2%. Emissions were on average 50 ± 10% higher in winter than summer, which we corroborate with Permian Basin Tower Network measurements, Insight M aircraft data, and GHGSat satellite observations. This seasonality may be driven in part by higher winter emissions from liquid storage tanks due to decreased separator efficiency in cold conditions. Similar but weaker seasonality along with decreasing emissions and intensities is found in weekly inversions for the Anadarko, Barnett, Eagle Ford, and Haynesville basins in 2022-2023. Our work suggests that better weatherization of oil and gas facilities could significantly reduce methane emissions.

Permian↗

Midwest US Croplands Determine Model Divergence in North American Carbon Fluxes

Large uncertainties in North American terrestrial carbon fluxes hinder regional climate projections. Terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs), the essential tools for understanding continental-scale carbon cycle, diverge on whether temperate forests or croplands dominate carbon uptake in North America. Evidence from novel photosynthetic proxies, such as those based on chlorophyll fluorescence, has cast doubt on the “weak cropland, strong forest” carbon uptake patterns simulated by most TBMs. However, no systematic evaluation of TBMs has yet been attempted to pin down space-time patterns that are most consistent with regional CO 2 observational constraints. Here, we leverage atmospheric CO 2 observations and satellite-observed photosynthetic proxies to understand emergent space-time patterns in North American carbon fluxes from a large suite of TBMs and data-driven models. To do so, we evaluate how well the atmospheric signals resulting from carbon flux estimates reproduce the space-time variability in atmospheric CO 2 , as is observed by a network of continuous-monitoring towers over North America. Models with gross or net carbon fluxes that are consistent with the observed CO 2 variability share a salient feature of growing-season carbon uptake in Midwest US croplands. Conversely, the remaining models place most growing-season uptake in boreal or temperate forests. Differences in model explanatory power depend mainly on the simulated annual cycles of cropland uptake—especially, the timing of peak uptake—rather than the distribution of annual mean fluxes across biomes. Our results suggest that improved model representation of cropland phenology is crucial to robust, policy-relevant estimation of North American carbon exchange.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Connections Between Mean North Pacific Circulation and Western US Precipitation Extremes in a Warming Climate

Abstract Extreme precipitation has widespread impacts over the western US (WUS), which are expected to be exacerbated in the future given thermodynamically driven increases in atmospheric moisture and shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns. However, internal climate variability complicates how these factors affect future projections of precipitation changes. In this study, we investigate late 21st‐century changes in mean‐state responses over the North Pacific Ocean and associated WUS precipitation extremes using the Multi‐Model Large Ensemble Archive, which is a recent and valuable resource to disentangle the effects of model structural differences from internal variability. We found that inter‐model differences in precipitation extremes over the WUS are large: from south to north (here, from California to Washington), models show different levels of increases for both the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation. In general, the Pacific Northwest sees a more consistent signal than California. We show that wet‐season mean circulation influences extreme precipitation, by using a decomposition of the relative contributions of thermodynamic (atmospheric humidity) and dynamic (large‐scale circulation) driven changes. The thermodynamic contribution dominates, however, the dynamic contribution varies with latitude and differs substantially between model ensembles. Inter‐model differences affect the spread in not only the magnitude, but also the sign of the dynamic contribution. This implies that mean circulation changes contribute to uncertainty in quantifying the regional structure of concentrated moisture flux and future extreme events. This result highlights the need to more accurately constrain projected North Pacific coupled circulation changes to narrow the spread in projections of future precipitation extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simulating the Effects of Surface Energy Partitioning on Convective Organization: Case Study and Observations in the US Southern Great Plains

Realistic cloud-resolving simulations were performed to study the effects of surface energy partitioning (surface sensible and latent heat fluxes) on the organization of isolated convection into larger mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) near the US Southern Great Plains. The role of cold pools in mediating surface-convection interactions was explored. Better organized MCSs tended to occur in the experiments with perturbed wetter soil (and more active vegetation), regardless of the effects of soil moisture on the diurnal timing of convective triggering. Wetter soil led to shallower boundary layers and more convective available potential energy than drier soil. The roles of cold pools on convection are lifecycle-stage dependent: A dry surface allows more numerous colliding cold pools, thereby aiding in convective triggering by reducing entrainment in the early stages, and providing gust-front uplift in later stages. However, horizontal propagation of the cold-pool density current can outrun the convective system, creating a slantwise updraft and thus weakening the gust front uplift in later stages. This effect calls into question previous cold pool parameterizations, in which the gust front uplift is mainly proportional to the negative buoyancy of cold air. Finally, both the model and observation show an enhancement of surface latent heat flux during the passage of a gust front at night, suggesting that a positive feedback between the surface and convection helps MCSs to persist into the nighttime.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Seasonal Variability in Local Carbon Dioxide Biomass Burning Sources Over Central and Eastern US Using Airborne In Situ Enhancement Ratios

We present observations of local enhancements in carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from local emissions sources over three eastern US regions during four deployments of the Atmospheric Carbon Transport-America (ACT-America) campaign between summer 2016 and spring 2018. Local CO 2 emissions were characterized by carbon monoxide (CO) to CO 2 enhancement ratios (i.e., ΔCO/ΔCO 2 ) in air mass mixing observed during aircraft transects within the planetary boundary layer. By analyzing regional-scale variability of CO 2 enhancements as a function of ΔCO/ΔCO 2 enhancement ratios, observed relative contributions to CO 2 emissions were separated into fossil fuel and biomass burning (BB) regimes across regions and seasons. CO 2 emission contributions attributed to biomass burning (ΔCO/ΔCO 2 > 4%) were negligible during summer and fall in all regions but climbed to ∼9%–11% of observed combustion contributions in the South during winter and spring. Relative CO 2 fire emission trends matched observed winter and spring BB contributions, but conflictingly predicted similar levels of BB during the fall. Satellite fire data from MODIS and VIIRS suggested the use of higher spatial resolution fire data that might improve modeled BB emissions but were not able to explain the bulk of the discrepancy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Precambrian Crystalline Basement Properties From Pressure History Matching and Implications for Induced Seismicity in the US Midcontinent

Injection-induced seismicity across the US midcontinent has almost exclusively occurred in the crystalline basement that underlies the Arbuckle Group aquifer and its equivalents, the primary wastewater disposal zone in this region. However, the properties of the basement are not well known. Newly compiled data, from Class I wells in Kansas, provide a unique record of pressures in the Arbuckle and an opportunity to constrain the reservoir-scale properties of the basement such as permeability, diffusivity, and specific storage. Constraints on these parameters are critical for modeling fluid flow and pressures across the entire Arbuckle-basement system, and are necessary for accurate evaluation and prediction of injection-induced earthquakes. Here, we present a detailed, three-dimensional geological and pressure history-matched numerical model for the Arbuckle and basement, based on data from >400 wells covering a large region in south-central Kansas, where injection-induced seismicity has been concentrated since 2014. Simulations of dynamic data from 319 wells indicate that Arbuckle pressures have increased by 1.1 MPa in high injection rate areas and an overpressure of <0.1 MPa may be the cause of seismicity in the basement. Pressure-history matching also yields the likely range in porosity (0.3%–7%), permeability (0.1–0.7 mD), and diffusivity (0.004–0.07 m2 /s) for the basement. The resulting estimates suggest reservoir-scale properties of the basement are enhanced by faults and fractures. Importantly, the diffusivities determined in this study are lower than estimates derived from Kansas earthquake triggering fronts, and suggest that such seismicity-based techniques may have limitations, particularly where spacetime patterns between injection and seismicity are complex.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗