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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 667 records · Page 37
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Hyperspectral and Nanosecond Temporal Resolution Widefield Infrared Photothermal Heterodyne Imaging

Label-free, bond-selective imaging offers new opportunities for fundamental and applied studies in chemistry, biology, and materials science. Preventing its broader application to investigating spectrally congested specimens are issues related to low sensitivity as well as low spatial and temporal resolution. Here, we demonstrate a widefield, mid-infrared (MIR) photothermal imaging technique, called widefield Infrared Photothermal Heterodyne imaging (wIR-PHI), that massively parallelizes acquisition of MIR absorption data through use of a high-speed complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor camera. wIR-PHI possesses notable features that include: spatial resolution significantly below the MIR diffraction limit, hyperspectral imaging capabilities, high sensitivity, and ~100 ns temporal resolution. Here, the first two features are highlighted by hyperspectral imaging of proximally close poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) and polystyrene (PS) nanoparticles where clear, bond-specific imaging of nanoparticles, separated by less than the MIR diffraction limit, is demonstrated. Sensitivity is highlighted by imaging individual PMMA and PS nanoparticles with radii between r = 97-556 nm. This leads to a current, peak absorption cross-section limit-of-detection of σ abs = 1.9× 10 –16 cm 2 . wIR-PHI's 100 ns temporal resolution is simultaneously demonstrated by observing the decay of photothermal contrast on individual nanoparticles on a ~200-6000 ns timescale. In whole, wIR-PHI’s dramatic increase in acquisition speed opens opportunities for future MIR kinetic imaging and spectroscopic studies of important chemical, biological, and material processes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Water Interplays during Dysprosium Electrodeposition in Pyrrolidinium Ionic Liquid: Deconvoluting the Pros and Cons for Rare Earth Metallization

The electrochemical production of rare earth metals (REMs) in ionic liquids (ILs) has received much attention as a promising, sustainable and replacement to the molten salt electrolysis. Water additives have been recently suggested as a strategy to overcome the limitations of the ionic liquid process, but without complete assessment of its overall viability for the REMs production. In this regard, a full investigation of water impact on dysprosium (Dy) electrodeposition in pyrrolidinium triflate (BMPyOTf) ionic liquid was carried out. Water introduction was revealed to involve an interplay of implications on the electrodeposition process, including coordination, speciation, reduction pathways, interfacial dynamics, nucleation and metal stability and purity. In highly dry conditions, the reduction occurs at very negative potentials (-3.3V) in a consecutive pathway, resulting in negligible metal electrodeposition (low rate and efficiency) at the electrode surface. Initial water introduction (<30% molar fraction) leads to partitioning of the Dy complex between water and IL coordinated speciation, giving rise to an additional wave at more positive potentials (-2.4V). Probing and quantification of the heterogeneous Dy speciation by spectroscopic analyses enabled the uncovering of the reduction mechanism and accurate evaluation of the mass transport properties. While lowering the reduction thermodynamics, water addition also improved the nucleation, deposition rate and faradaic efficiency. In spite of these benefits, stripping voltammetric analysis also indicated substantial chemical reactivity of the deposited Dy metal with water additives and/or electrolyte components, under extended timescales. Surface characterization of the obtained product confirmed limited Dy metal stability (mostly oxidized/fluorinated) and purity (~60%) in the studied system. Moreover, high water introduction (>30% molar fraction) was shown to trigger a fast hydrogen evolution reaction (HER), downgrading the robustness of system efficiency. We report the overall impact of water additives seems to engender both promoting and mitigating effects on the Dy electrodeposition process, making the case for more innovative strategies to be sought.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Direct Observation of Transient Structural Dynamics of Atomically Thin Halide Perovskite Nanowires

Halide perovskite is a unique dynamical system, whose structural and chemical processes happening across different timescales have significant impact on its physical properties and device-level performance. However, due to its intrinsic instability, real-time investigation of the structure dynamics of halide perovskite is challenging, which hinders the systematic understanding of the chemical processes in the synthesis, phase transition, and degradation of halide perovskite. Here, we show that atomically thin carbon materials can stabilize ultrathin halide perovskite nanostructures against otherwise detrimental conditions. Moreover, the protective carbon shells enable atomic-level visualization of the vibrational, rotational, and translational movement of halide perovskite unit cells. Albeit atomically thin, protected halide perovskite nanostructures can maintain their structural integrity up to an electron dose rate of 10,000 e – /Å 2 ·s while exhibiting unusual dynamical behaviors pertaining to the lattice anharmonicity and nanoscale confinement. Here, our work demonstrates an effective method to protect beam-sensitive materials during in situ observation, unlocking new solutions to study new modes of structure dynamics of nanomaterials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Forced Patterns of Sea Level Rise in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble From 1920 to 2100

To provide context for observed sea level rise, the forced response (FR) in dynamic sea level (DSL) during the 20th and 21st centuries is examined in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (LE). After accounting for simulation drift, which in the LE is sizable, the DSL FR is found to be complex, both in space and time. Its evolving character is suggested to arise from both the diversity and transient evolution of climate forcing agents and the slow adjustment timescales of the intermediate and deep oceans. Nonetheless, various intervals of spatially coherent change simulated for the recent past and near future are identified, and their characteristics and associated driving mechanisms are identified and discussed. The mid- to late-20th century DSL FR is characterized by an hemispherically asymmetric pattern of change, with depressed rates of rise in the northern oceans. There is also a dipole of change in the Southern Ocean caused by changes in near-surface zonal winds. Through the late 20th and early 21st centuries, a different pattern of rise emerges with elevated rates in the tropics and depressed rates at high latitudes. Zonal and interbasin variations characterize both intervals and involve the pattern and depth of anomalous ocean heat content storage and spatial contrasts in the expansion coefficient tied mainly to base state temperature, with greater rates of rise in warm regions per unit warming. Finally, the relative roles of surface flux and ocean convergence anomalies are examined.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

TROPOMI NO 2 in the United States: A Detailed Look at the Annual Averages, Weekly Cycles, Effects of Temperature, and Correlation With Surface NO 2 Concentrations

Abstract Observing the spatial heterogeneities of NO 2 air pollution is an important first step in quantifying NO X emissions and exposures. This study investigates the capabilities of the Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) in observing the spatial and temporal patterns of NO 2 pollution in the continental United States. The unprecedented sensitivity of the sensor can differentiate the fine‐scale spatial heterogeneities in urban areas, such as emissions related to airport/shipping operations and high traffic, and the relatively small emission sources in rural areas, such as power plants and mining operations. We then examine NO 2 columns by day‐of‐the‐week and find that Saturday and Sunday concentrations are 16% and 24% lower respectively, than during weekdays. We also analyze the correlation of daily maximum 2‐m temperatures and NO 2 column amounts and find that NO 2 is larger on the hottest days (>32°C) as compared to warm days (26°C–32°C), which is in contrast to a general decrease in NO 2 with increasing temperature at moderate temperatures. Finally, we demonstrate that a linear regression fit of 2019 annual TROPOMI NO 2 data to annual surface‐level concentrations yields relatively strong correlation ( R 2 = 0.66). These new developments make TROPOMI NO 2 satellite data advantageous for policymakers and public health officials, who request information at high spatial resolution and short timescales, in order to assess, devise, and evaluate regulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Anthropogenic Perturbations to the Atmospheric Molybdenum Cycle

Abstract Molybdenum (Mo) is a key cofactor in enzymes used for nitrogen (N) fixation and nitrate reduction, and the low availability of Mo can constrain N inputs, affecting ecosystem productivity. Natural atmospheric Mo aerosolization and deposition from sources such as desert dust, sea‐salt spray, and volcanoes can affect ecosystem function across long timescales, but anthropogenic activities such as combustion, motor vehicles, and agricultural dust have accelerated the natural Mo cycle. Here we combined a synthesis of global atmospheric concentration observations and modeling to identify and estimate anthropogenic sources of atmospheric Mo. To project the impact of atmospheric Mo on terrestrial ecosystems, we synthesized soil Mo data and estimated the global distribution of soil Mo using two approaches to calculate turnover times. We estimated global emissions of atmospheric Mo in aerosols (<10 μm in diameter) to be 23 Gg Mo yr −1 , with 40%–75% from anthropogenic sources. We approximated that for the top meter of soil, Mo turnover times range between 1,000 and 1,000,000 years. In some industrialized regions, anthropogenic inputs have enhanced Mo deposition 100‐fold, lowering the soil Mo turnover time considerably. Our synthesis of global observational data, modeling, and a mass balance comparison with riverine Mo exports suggest that anthropogenic activity has greatly accelerated the Mo cycle, with potential to influence N‐limited ecosystems.

Wong, Michelle Y.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine-Learning-Based Analysis of the Guy-Greenbrier, Arkansas Earthquakes: A Tale of Two Sequences

Here, we revisited the June 2010 to October 2011 Guy-Greenbrier earthquake sequence in central Arkansas using PhaseNet, a deep neural network trained to pick P and S arrival times. We applied PhaseNet to continuous waveform data and used phase association and hypocenter relocation to locate nearly 90,000 events. Our catalog suggests that the sequence consists of two adjacent earthquake sequences on the same fault and that the second sequence may be associated with the wastewater disposal well to the west of the Guy-Greenbrier Fault, rather than the wells to the north and the east that were previously implicated. We find that each sequence is composed of many small clusters that exhibit diffusion along the fault at shorter timescales. Our study demonstrates that machine-learning-based earthquake catalog development is now feasible and will yield new insights into earthquake behavior.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Electron Dropout Events and Flux Enhancements Associated With Geomagnetic Storms Observed by PROBA-V/Energetic Particle Telescope From 2013 to 2019

Electron flux variations for E > 500 keV during geomagnetic storms are investigated using the Energetic Particle Telescope (EPT). This detector launched in May 2013 on board the satellite PROBA-V at an altitude of 820 km was designed to provide uncontaminated spectra of electrons, protons, and alpha particles. Electron flux dropout events are observed during the main phase of each storm and even during substorms: a rapid reduction of the electron flux is noted throughout the outer electron radiation belt at all energies above about 0.5 MeV on timescales of a few hours. The electron spectrograms measured by the EPT between 2013 and 2019 show that after each geomagnetic storm, dropout events are followed by a flux enhancement starting first at low L values, and reaching the slot or even the inner belt for the strongest storms. We determine the link between Disturbed Storm Time (Dst) and the minimum value of the L-shell where the dropouts deplete the outer belt, as well as the nonlinear relation between Dst and the minimum L-shell where the flux penetrates in the slot region or even the inner belt during the storms. Dropouts appear at all energies measured by EPT and penetrate down to $\textit{L}$~3.5 for the strongest events. Dropouts are observed at Low Earth Orbit each time Dst has an inverted peak < –40 nT. Flux enhancements appear at lower L only for big storm events with Dst < –50 nT. They penetrate down to an impenetrable barrier with a minimum L-shell related to Dst and to the energy. For E > 1 MeV, this limit is also linked to the plasmapause position.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Regional Subsidence Analysis Through a Multi-Scale Modeling Framework Based on Breakage Mechanics

Although poroelastic models are often used to explain the delay between subsurface fluid depletion and ground subsidence, inelastic compaction involving permanent changes of rock microstructure may exacerbate hydro-mechanical coupling, thus influencing the interpretation of measurements and long-term forecasts. Here, a multi-scale modeling approach is discussed, which accounts for the inherent connection between rock microstructure, hydraulic conductivity, and pore compaction. A constitutive model built within the framework of breakage mechanics is proposed to link the hydraulic conductivity of granular rocks with inelastic deformations and changes in grading caused by injection-depletion cycles at stress levels far from yielding. The proposed model has been incorporated into large-scale simulation frameworks, thus enabling the spatiotemporal mapping of regional subsidence through a hybrid, semi-analytical approach. Numerical results based on this strategy show that the model allows isolating near-field and far-field effects into the computation of land subsidence and can generate forecasts for different modeling scenarios (e.g., elastic and inelastic compaction, constant permeability, and concurrent change of compressibility and permeability). In particular, examples of simulations for the case of the Groningen gas field are discussed, showing the model capabilities to use both field measurements and laboratory tests for the generation of reasonable subsidence maps, without expensive computational costs. Results indicate that ignoring coupled inelastic effects has major consequences on the predicted timescale of subsidence. Specifically, while all the model scenarios produced similar long-term ground settlements, those ignoring breakage-dependent permeability changes result in a variation of the temporal window of residual subsidence of the order of several decades.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sensitivity of Carbonaceous Aerosol Properties to the Implementation of a Dynamic Aging Parameterization in the Regional Climate Model RegCM

Freshly emitted soot is hydrophobic, but condensation of secondary aerosols and coagulation with other particles modify its hygroscopic optical properties. This conversion is referred to as “aerosol aging.” Many climate models represent this aging process with a fixed aging time scale, whereas in reality, it is a dynamic process that depends on environmental conditions. Here, we implement a dynamic aging parameterization scheme in the regional climate model RegCM4 in place of the fixed aging timescale of 1.15 days (~27.6 h) and examine its impact on the aerosol life cycle over the Indian subcontinent. The conversion from hydrophobic to hydrophilic aerosol is usually lower than 27.6 h over the entire landmass and lower than 10 h over the polluted Indo-Gangetic Basin (IGB), with seasonal variability. Due to the implementation of the dynamic aging scheme, the column burden and surface mass concentration of carbonaceous aerosols increase during the drier season (December–February) when washout is negligible. The burden is reduced during the wet season (June–September) due to a more efficient washout except over the IGB, where a reduction in precipitation as a result of radiative feedbacks increases the aerosol concentrations. Over the polluted IGB, surface dimming increases due to the dynamic aging scheme, with the top of the atmosphere forcing remaining mostly unchanged. As a result, atmospheric heating increases by at least 1.2 W/m 2 . Our results suggest that climate models should incorporate dynamic aging for a more realistic representation of aerosol simulations, especially in highly polluted regions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sources of Subseasonal-To-Seasonal Predictability of Atmospheric Rivers and Precipitation in the Western United States

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) account for a large portion of winter precipitation in the western US. To evaluate the sources of AR and precipitation predictability at subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales, we examine the relationships between two climate modes, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), and winter hydroclimate in the western US. Our analysis uses a large ensemble of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model simulations from 1981 to 2017, facilitating the assessment of uncertainty in climate mode-AR relationship due to climate variability and short length of observations. Over the North Pacific basin, we find ENSO-related latitudinal shifts of ARs, but ENSO has little effect on basin-wide averaged AR frequency. Over the western US, there is some uncertainty in the ENSO-AR connection due to the impacts of ENSO indices and datasets. However, extreme El Niño events defined by the ENSO longitude index are consistently linked to increased landfalling AR activity. The MJO can lead to significantly enhanced or suppressed landfalling AR activity in the large-ensembles, depending on the phase of MJO and time lag, while observations are too short in length to robustly show this signal. ENSO substantially modulates the MJO-AR relationship, triggering variegated responses of landfalling ARs and AR precipitation in La Niña and El Niño years. Our findings highlight the need to evaluate concurrent effects of different climate modes on ARs and precipitation, and may shed light on a path toward more accurate subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction of ARs and precipitation over the western US.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Soil Respiration Response to Rainfall Modulated by Plant Phenology in a Montane Meadow, East River, Colorado, USA

Soil respiration is a primary component of the terrestrial carbon cycle. However, predicting the response of soil respiration to climate change remains a challenge due to the complex interactions between environmental drivers, especially plant phenology, temperature, and soil moisture. In this study, we use a 1-D diffusion-reaction model to calculate depth-resolved CO 2 production rates from soil CO 2 concentrations and surface efflux observations in a subalpine meadow in the East River watershed, CO. Modeled rates are compared to in situ soil temperature and moisture conditions and MODIS satellite enhanced vegetation index (EVI) representing plant phenology across three hydrologically distinct growing seasons from 2016-2018. While soil respiration correlated with temperature on diel timescales (p<0.05), seasonal variability was dominated by soil moisture and plant phenology (p<0.05). We observed significant respiration increases in response to precipitation events; however, magnitude and duration were significantly higher in 2017 than 2016 despite similar wetting characteristics. Based on MODIS EVI, we suggest the respiration response to rainfall is controlled by plant phenology, which in turn reflects the capacity of plants to respond to precipitation via increased photosynthesis and autotrophic respiration, behavior that is not captured in typical soil respiration pulse models. Projected changes in montane climate such as earlier snowmelt and prolonged fore-summer drought may decrease soil respiration fluxes by decreasing the overlap between peak productivity and the summer monsoon. Lastly, we observed significant late-season CO 2 fluxes from the deep sub-soil (>165 cm) that support growing evidence for the importance of sub-soil processes in driving integrated respiration fluxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Global Temperature Responses to Large Tropical Volcanic Eruptions in Paleo Data Assimilation Products and Climate Model Simulations Over the Last Millennium

Abstract Large volcanic eruptions are one of the dominant perturbations to global and regional atmospheric temperatures on timescales of years to decades. Discrepancies remain, however, in the estimated magnitude and persistence of the surface temperature cooling caused by volcanic eruptions, as characterized by paleoclimatic proxies and climate models. We investigate these discrepancies in the context of large tropical eruptions over the Last Millennium using two state‐of‐the‐art data assimilation products, the Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation product (PHYDA) and the Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR), and simulations from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model‐Last Millennium Ensemble (NCAR CESM‐LME). We find that PHYDA and LMR estimate mean global and hemispheric cooling that is similar in magnitude and persistence once effects from eruptions occurring in short succession are removed. The estimates also compare well to Northern‐Hemisphere reconstructions based solely or partially on tree‐ring density, which have been proposed as the most accurate proxy estimates of surface cooling due to volcanism. All proxy‐based estimates also agree well with the magnitude of the mean cooling simulated by the CESM‐LME. Differences remain, however, in the spatial patterns of the temperature responses in the PHYDA, LMR, and the CESM‐LME. The duration of cooling anomalies also persists for several years longer in the PHYDA and LMR relative to the CESM‐LME. Our results demonstrate progress in resolving discrepancies between proxy‐ and model‐based estimates of temperature responses to volcanism, but also indicate these estimates must be further reconciled to better characterize the risks of future volcanic eruptions.

Tejedor, E.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Can We Better Constrain the Timing of GNAIW/UNADW Variability in the Western Equatorial Atlantic and Its Relationship to Climate Change During the Last Deglaciation?

We have revisited the well-trod VM28-122 core retrieved from the deep Colombian Basin, which includes sediments that reflect modern Upper North Atlantic Deep Water and extends through the last deglaciation into the last glacial period when the site was bathed in Glacial North Atlantic Intermediate Water. Here, we leverage the nearby Cariaco Basin's surface water radiocarbon reconstruction (reservoir age, and ΔR) on the IntCal20 timescale to recast the period of the last deglaciation with a newly constrained age model. Based on the revised age model, we observe that the multimillennial decrease in benthic δ 13 C and B/Ca (which record δ 13 C of dissolved inorganic carbon and Δ[CO 3 –2 ], respectively) began at 18,100 ± 240 (95% CI) calibrated years BP, synchronous with Termination 1, as identified by changes in the Antarctic Ice Sheet composite and by the onset of rapid glacier recession in the Southern Hemisphere (Denton et al., 2010, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1184119; Denton et al., 2021, https://10.1016/j.quascirev.2020.106771). The beginning of the decrease in benthic δ 18 O is concurrent with the changes in carbon chemistry or at most, a few hundred years later. It is no later than 17,700 ± 300 (95% CI) yrs BP in our record, at the putative start of Heinrich Stadial 1. With sufficient data density (more than 2–3 control points per kyr) and an independent record of past surface water radiocarbon variations, it is possible to achieve late glacial and deglacial chronologies with fidelities similar to those of ice cores. Furthermore, doing so in more oceanographic locations should shed light more broadly on the mechanisms instrumental to abrupt climate change.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Exploring Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity in the High‐Resolution Community Atmosphere Model

Abstract High‐resolution climate models (∼28 km grid spacing) can permit realistic simulations of tropical cyclones (TCs), thus enabling their investigation in relation to the climate system. On the global scale, previous works have demonstrated that the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) version 5 presents a reasonable TC climatology under prescribed present‐day (1980–2005) forcing. However, for the Western North Pacific (WNP) region, known biases in simulated TC genesis frequency and location under‐represent the basin's dominant share in observations. This study addresses these model biases in WNP by evaluating WNP TCs in a decadal simulation, and exploring potential improvements through nudging experiments. Among the major environmental controls of TC genesis, the lack of mid‐level moisture is identified as the leading cause of the deficit in simulated WNP TC genesis over the Pacific Warm Pool. Subsequent seasonal experiments explore the effect of constraining the large‐scale environment on TC development by nudging WNP temperature field toward reanalysis at various strengths. Temperature nudging elicits a significant response in TC genesis and intensity development, as well as in moisture and convection over the Warm Pool. These responses are sensitive to the choice of nudging timescale. Overall, the nudging experiments demonstrate that improvements in the large‐scale environment can lead to improvements in simulated TCs, suggesting future model developments in relation to model physics. In this way, the potential improvements in model fidelity will contribute to the understanding of how the mean state of current or future climates may give rise to extremes such as TCs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Technology Pathways Could Help Drive the U.S. West Coast Grid's Exposure to Hydrometeorological Uncertainty

Abstract Previous studies investigating deep decarbonization of bulk electric power systems and wholesale electricity markets have not sufficiently explored how future grid pathways could affect the grid's vulnerability to hydrometeorological uncertainty on multiple timescales. Here, we employ a grid operations model and a large synthetic weather ensemble to “stress test” a range of future grid pathways for the U.S. West Coast developed by ReEDS, a well‐known capacity planning model. Our results show that gradual changes in the underlying capacity mix from 2020 to 2050 can cause significant “re‐ranking” of weather years in terms of annual wholesale electricity prices (with “good” years becoming bad, and vice versa). Nonetheless, we find the highest and lowest ranking price years in terms of average electricity price remain mostly tied to extremes in hydropower availability (streamflow) and load (summer temperatures), with the strongest sensitivities related to drought. Seasonal dynamics seen today involving spring snowmelt and hot, dry summers remain well‐defined out to 2050. In California, future supply shortfalls in our model are concentrated in the evening and occur mostly during periods of high temperature anomalies in late summer months and in late winter; in the Pacific Northwest, supply shortfalls are much more strongly tied to negative streamflow anomalies. Under our more robust sampling of stationary hydrometeorological uncertainty, we also find that the ratio of dis‐patchable thermal (i.e., natural gas) capacity to wind and solar required to ensure grid reliability can differ significantly from values reported by ReEDS.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Typology for Characterizing Human Action in MultiSector Dynamics Models

The role of individual and collective human agency is increasingly recognized as a prominent and arguably paramount determinant in shaping the behavior, trajectory, and vulnerability of multisector systems. This human influence operates at multiple scales: from short-term (hourly to daily) to long-term (annually to centennial) timescales, and from the local to the global, pushing systems towards either desirable or undesirable outcomes. However, the effort to represent human systems in multisector models has been fragmented across philosophical, methodological, and disciplinary lines. To cohere insights across diverse modeling approaches, we present a new typology for classifying how human actors are represented in the broad suite of coupled human-natural system models that are applied in MultiSector Dynamics (MSD) research. The typology conceptualizes a “sector” as a system-of-systems that includes a diverse group of human actors, defined across individual to collective social levels, involved in governing, provisioning, and utilizing products, goods, or services towards some human end. We trace the salient features of modeled representations of human systems by organizing the typology around three key questions: 1) Who are the modeled actors in MSD systems? 2) What are their modeled actions? 3) How and for what purpose are these actors and actions operationalized in a computational model? The typology is used to critically examine existing models and chart the frontier of future human systems modeling for MSD research.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Frictional and Lithological Controls on Shallow Slow Slip at the Northern Hikurangi Margin

Slow slip events (SSEs) have been identified at subduction zones globally as an important link in the continuum between elastodynamic ruptures and stable creep. The northern Hikurangi margin is home to shallow SSEs which propagate to within 2 km of the seafloor and possibly to the trench, providing insights into the physical conditions conducive to SSE behavior. We report on a suite of friction experiments performed on protolith material entering the SSE source region at the Hikurangi margin, collected during the International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 375. We performed velocity stepping and slide-hold-slide experiments over a range of fault slip rates, from plate rate (5 cm/yr or 1.6 × 10 –9 m/s) to ~1 mm/s (10 –3 m/s) and quantified the frictional velocity dependence and healing rates for a range of lithologies atdifferent stresses. The frictional velocity dependence (a-b) and critical slip distance DC increase with fault slip rate in our experiments. We observe atransition from velocity weakening to strengthening at slip rates of ~0.3 µm/s. This velocity dependence of DC could be due to a combination of dilatant strengthening and a widening of the active shear zone at higher slip rates. We document low healing rates in the clay-rich volcaniclastic conglomerates, which lie above the incoming plate basement at least locally, and relatively higher healing rates in the chalk lithology. Finally, our experimental constraints on healing rates in different input lithologies extrapolated to timescales of 1–10 years are consistent with the geodetically inferred low stress drops and healing rates characteristic of the Hikurangi SSEs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗