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This paper considers the suboptimal stochastic control of linear discrete-time dynamical systems with unknown or stochastically varying parameters. The suboptimal scheme is based upon the use of the open-loop-feedback-optimal (O.L.F.O.) method. The state and parameter estimates are generated by an extended Kalman filter algorithm. Numerical results for first order systems are presented.
This paper considers the suboptimal stochastic control of linear discrete-time dynamical systems with uncertain or stochastically varying parameters. The suboptimal scheme is based upon the use of the open-loop-feedback-optimal (OLFO) method. The state and parameter estimates are generated by an extended Kalman filter algorithm. Numerical results for first-order systems are presented.
We use distributionally robust optimization (DRO) to model a general class of newsvendor problems with unknown demand distribution. The goal is to find an order quantity that minimizes the worst-case expected cost among an ambiguity set of distributions. The ambiguity set consists of those distributions that are not far—in the sense of the total variation distance—from a nominal distribution. The maximum distance allowed in the ambiguity set (called level of robustness) places the DRO between the risk-neutral stochastic programming and robust optimization models. An important problem a decision maker faces is how to determine the level of robustness—or, equivalently, how to find an appropriate level of risk-aversion. We answer this question in two ways. Our first approach relates the level of robustness and risk to the regions of demand that are critical (in a precise sense we introduce) to the optimal cost. Our second approach establishes new quantitative relationships between the DRO model and the corresponding risk-neutral and classical robust optimization models. To achieve these goals, we first focus on a single-product setting and derive explicit formulas and properties of the optimal solution as a function of the level of robustness. Then, we demonstrate the practical and managerial relevance of our results by applying our findings to a healthcare problem to reserve operating room time for cardiovascular surgeries. Finally, we extend some of our results to the multi-product setting and illustrate them numerically.
Recent studies have shown that fossil generators equipped with post-combustion carbon capture (PCC) systems are needed to reduce the cost of deep decarbonization. Such generators need to be flexible and responsive to grid conditions, particularly in a high variable renewable energy (VRE) environment. In this work, we evaluate the net present value (NPV) of retrofitting an existing natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) unit with a flexible PCC system while incorporating market signals from a high VRE grid. We use our industrial partner’s NGCC configuration as representative of existing NGCC units and Svante’s rapid-temperature swing adsorption (TSA) for PCC. Because of its ability to rapidly startup/shutdown and ramp-up/ramp-down, the chosen capture technology is very attractive for load-following operations. For a given set of market signals, we formulate a two-stage stochastic multi-period optimization problem, under the price-taker assumption, to simultaneously optimize the design of the capture system and operation of the entire plant. Rigorous models for the NGCC unit, PCC system, and compression system are developed using commercial process simulators and validated with either plant or vendor data. For computational tractability, we develop surrogate/reduced-order models for use in the optimization problem. The surrogate model for the NGCC plant is constructed by linearizing the rigorous dynamic model at 75% load, while data-driven nonlinear surrogate models for the capture and compression systems are constructed using simulation data from the rigorous models. The optimization problem, formulated as a mixed integer bilinear program, is implemented in the IDAES® integrated platform and solved to global optimality using Gurobi 9.5. Using this formulation, we determine the profitability of retrofitting an existing NGCC unit with the chosen capture system for multiple regions in the U.S. under two scenarios with different carbon prices. Importantly, the results show that the optimal decision strongly depends on the region and on the carbon price, thereby demonstrating the importance of the inclusion of market signals in the design process.
We present a novel methodology for optimizing nuclear fuel cycle transitions that incorporates a game-theoretic approach and captures interactions among multiple decision makers. The methodology is demonstrated using a two-person sequential game with uncertainty, where the two players represent a policy maker and an electric utility company, though the method generalizes to any number and type of individual decision making entities. Coupled with a sophisticated nuclear fuel cycle simulator, rich transition scenarios may be analyzed to identify robust transition strategies. These strategies explicitly treat uncertainties using a stochastic programming approach, devising optimal near-term hedging strategies that simultaneously consider all possible states of the world, maintaining flexibility to allow for intelligent recourse decisions once uncertainties are resolved. In the demonstration game, reactor technology and fuel cycle scheme adopted by the electric utility are shown to depend on both the policy maker’s decisions and the distributions over uncertain technological and economic outcomes.
Among the well-known methods to approximate derivatives of expectancies computed by Monte-Carlo simulations, averages of pathwise derivatives are often the easiest one to apply. Computing them via algorithmic differentiation typically does not require major manual analysis and rewriting of the code, even for very complex programs like simulations of particle-detector interactions in high-energy physics. However, the pathwise derivative estimator can be biased if there are discontinuities in the program, which may diminish its value for applications. This work integrates algorithmic differentiation into the electromagnetic shower simulation code HepEmShow based on G4HepEm, allowing us to study how well pathwise derivatives approximate derivatives of energy depositions in a sampling calorimeter with respect to parameters of the beam and geometry. We found that when multiple scattering is disabled in the simulation, means of pathwise derivatives converge quickly to their expected values, and these are close to the actual derivatives of the energy deposition. Additionally, we demonstrate the applicability of this novel gradient estimator for stochastic gradient-based optimization in a model example.
In order to prevent an epidemic of infectious diseases, the vaccination coverage needs to be minimized and also the basic reproduction number needs to be maintained below 1. This means that as we get the vaccination coverage as minimum as possible, thus we need to prevent the epidemic to a small number of people who already get infected. In this paper, we discuss the case of vaccination strategy in term of minimizing vaccination coverage, when the basic reproduction number is assumed as an uncertain parameter that lies between 0 and 1. We refer to the linear optimization model for vaccination strategy that propose by Becker and Starrzak (see [2]). Assuming that there is parameter uncertainty involved, we can see Tanner et al (see [9]) who propose the optimal solution of the problem using stochastic programming. In this paper we discuss an alternative way of optimizing the uncertain vaccination strategy using Robust Optimization (see [3]). In this approach we assume that the parameter uncertainty lies within an ellipsoidal uncertainty set such that we can claim that the obtained result will be achieved in a polynomial time algorithm (as it is guaranteed by the RO methodology). The robust counterpart model is presented.
This paper presents a method for performing approximate optimal control simulations for quantum systems with multiple coupled degrees of freedom. In this work, the time evolution is simulated using the first-order Magnus expansion in the interaction picture, where the couplings between different degrees of freedom are treated as the perturbation. A numerical implementation procedure is presented that leverages upon pairwise couplings and the separability of the zeroth-order time evolution operator to achieve a reduced computational cost, which is analyzed with respect to the number of degrees of freedom. The formulation is compatible with gradient-free methods to optimize the control field, and a stochastic hill climbing algorithm is adopted for this purpose. As illustrations, optimal control simulations are performed for systems of two and three dipole-dipole-coupled molecular rotors under the influence of a control field. For the two-rotor system, the field is optimized to achieve either orientation or entanglement objectives. For the three-rotor system, the field is optimized either to orient all three rotors in the same direction or to orient one rotor in a particular direction while the other two rotors point in the opposite direction.
Purpose: Commissioning data for intensity modulated proton therapy (IMPT) must be post-processed by fits to ad-hoc functions to derive the dose calculation kernel parameters in a treatment planning system (TPS). Whether from experimental measurement or Monte Carlo simulation, the limited and noisy nature of such data makes this task very challenging. We present a method to improve the modeling of the lateral dose distribution of clinical energy proton beams in water to commission an in-house IMPT dose calculation engine. Methods: A linear sum of three Gaussian distribution functions was fitted to the lateral dose data in logarithmic scale. Starting values of fitting solutions were determined from the Generalized Highland Approximation. We exhaustively optimized the combinations of data weights with upper bounds of the fitting solutions to minimize confidence intervals of the fitting solutions while maintaining the coefficient of determination (R{sup 2}). Results: Across all energies, average confidence bounds improved 72.88% [Max: 88.28%, Min: 55.05%] for small angle coulomb scattering, 114.25% [409.13%, 66.72%,] for nuclear scattering, and 68.66% [141.09%, 33.27%] for large angle coulomb scattering, while the coefficients of determination of the fits (R{sup 2}) remained comparable. On average R {sup 2} only changed 0.18% and were very close to 1 (approx. 0.999). Wilcoxon signed rank tests comparing unweighted/unbounded fits with weighted/bounded fits averaged 0.0146 (Max: 0.177, Min: 7.05×10−{sup 7}) for small angle Coulomb, 0.0903 (0.945, 7.05×10−{sup 7}) for nuclear, and 0.254 (0.871, 1.86×10−{sup 6}) for large angle Coulomb scattering. This allows rejection of the null hypothesis for small angle Coulomb scattering at the 0.015 level and nuclear interaction at the 0.1 level. Conclusion: Optimal weights assigned to IMPT lateral dose data minimized fitting to stochastic noise in the tail region. Optimizing the upper bounds of fitting parameters improved the robustness of fitting solutions. Both led to a more physically meaningful dose calculation kernel for the TPS. NIH/NCI K25CA168984, Eagles Cancer Research Career Development, The Lawrence W. and Marilyn W. Matteson Fund for Cancer Research, Mayo ASU Seed Grant, and The Kemper Marley Foundation.
As weather-dependent renewable generation increases its share in the generation mix of most electric energy systems, a stochastic unit commitment becomes the natural day-ahead scheduling tool. However, such a tool is generally computationally intractable if a detailed uncertainty description is considered. Taking this into account, we proposed a learning method to make the stochastic unit commitment problem tractable. Here, recent advances in statistical learning and machine learning to address optimization problems can be advantageously applied to the rather intractable stochastic unit commitment problem. Considering these advances, we explore simple learning techniques to drastically reduce the size of a stochastic unit commitment problem without significantly altering its optimal solution. The considered stochastic unit commitment problem is formulated as a two-stage stochastic programming problem. The first stage represents commitment decisions, while the second one represents the operation conditions under different scenarios. Taking into account historical solved instances (or proxies for them), we reduce the size (measured by numbers of constraints and variables) of the stochastic unit commitment problem by (i) fixing unchanged binary variables and by (ii) eliminating inactive inequality constraints. Our numerical results show that the reduced problem generally requires significantly less time to solve while obtaining high-quality solutions, which are very close to or indistinguishable from the one obtained by solving the original problem. We use an Illinois 200-bus system to illustrate and characterize the performance of the proposed problem-reduction method.
This paper describes a novel set of stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch models that consider stochastic loads and variable generation at multiple operational timescales. The stochastic model includes four distinct stages: stochastic day-ahead security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC), stochastic real-time SCUC, stochastic real-time security-constrained economic dispatch (SCED), and deterministic automatic generation control (AGC). These sub-models are integrated together such that they are continually updated with decisions passed from one to another. The progressive hedging algorithm (PHA) is applied to solve the stochastic models to maintain the computational tractability of the proposed models. Comparative case studies with deterministic approaches are conducted in low wind and high wind penetration scenarios to highlight the advantages of the proposed methodology, one with perfect forecasts and the other with current state-of-the-art but imperfect deterministic forecasts. The effectiveness of the proposed method is evaluated with sensitivity tests using both economic and reliability metrics to provide a broader view of its impact.
Self-adaptive solution to problem of optimal filtering, prediction, and smoothing of stochastic signals imbedded in random noise
Amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, restaurants become more reliant on no-contact pick-up or delivery ways for serving customers. As a result, they need to make tactical planning decisions such as whether to partner with online platforms, to form their own delivery team, or both. In this paper, we develop an integrated prediction-decision model to analyze the profit of combining the two approaches and to decide the needed number of drivers under stochastic demand. We first use the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model to forecast future infected cases in a given region and then construct an autoregressive-moving-average (ARMA) regression model to predict food-ordering demand. Using predicted demand samples, we formulate a stochastic integer program to optimize food delivery plans. We conduct numerical studies using COVID-19 data and food-ordering demand data collected from local restaurants in Nuevo Leon, Mexico, from April to October 2020, to show results for helping restaurants build contingency plans under rapid market changes. Our method can be used under unexpected demand surges, various infection/vaccination status, and demand patterns. Here, our results show that a restaurant can benefit from partnering with third-party delivery platforms when (i) the subscription fee is low, (ii) customers can flexibly decide whether to order from platforms or from restaurants directly, (iii) customers require more efficient delivery, (iv) average delivery distance is long, or (v) demand variance is high.
In this work a new hybrid genetic algorithm was developed which combines a rudimentary adaptive steepest ascent hill climbing algorithm with a sophisticated evolutionary algorithm in order to optimize complex multivariate design problems. By combining a highly stochastic algorithm (evolutionary) with a simple deterministic optimization algorithm (adaptive steepest ascent) computational resources are conserved and the solution converges rapidly when compared to either algorithm alone. In genetic algorithms natural selection is mimicked by random events such as breeding and mutation. In the adaptive steepest ascent algorithm each variable is perturbed by a small amount and the variable that caused the most improvement is incremented by a small step. If the direction of most benefit is exactly opposite of the previous direction with the most benefit then the step size is reduced by a factor of 2, thus the step size adapts to the terrain. A graphical user interface was created in MATLAB to provide an interface between the hybrid genetic algorithm and the user. Additional features such as bounding the solution space and weighting the objective functions individually are also built into the interface. The algorithm developed was tested to optimize the functions developed for a wood pelleting process. Using process variables (such as feedstock moisture content, die speed, and preheating temperature) pellet properties were appropriately optimized. Specifically, variables were found which maximized unit density, bulk density, tapped density, and durability while minimizing pellet moisture content and specific energy consumption. The time and computational resources required for the optimization were dramatically decreased using the hybrid genetic algorithm when compared to MATLAB's native evolutionary optimization tool.
We investigate the optimal management of a portfolio consisting of a risk asset and a risk-free bond. The asset dynamics is specified by the M-CEV model. Assuming that the investor has a power utility function, we derive an explicit analytical portfolio-management formula that contains confluent hypergeometric functions. The asymptotic form of the proposed portfolio management strategy is obtained, as well as approximate formulas consisting only of elementary functions. We additionally present an application of our results in the context of algorithmic statistical-arbitrage strategies.
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The parameter derivative of the expectation value of the energy, ∂E/∂p, is a key ingredient in variational Monte Carlo (VMC) wave function optimization methods. In some cases, a naïve estimate of this derivative suffers from an infinite variance, which inhibits the efficiency of optimization methods that rely on a stable estimate of the derivative. In this work, we derive a simple regularization of the naïve estimator, which is trivial to implement in existing VMC codes, has finite variance, and a negligible bias, which can be extrapolated to zero bias with no extra cost. We use this estimator to construct an unbiased, finite variance estimation of ∂E/∂p for a multi-Slater–Jastrow trial wave function on the LiH molecule and in the optimization of a multi-Slater–Jastrow trial wave function on the CuO molecule. This regularized estimator is a simple and efficient estimator of ∂E/∂p for VMC optimization techniques.
Here, in this article, the authors present a technique using variational Monte Carlo to solve for excited states of electronic systems. This technique is based on enforcing orthogonality to lower energy states, which results in a simple variational principle for the excited states. Energy optimization is then used to solve for the excited states. This technique is applied to the well-characterized benzene molecule, in which ~10 000 parameters are optimized for the first 12 excited states. Agreement within ~0.2 eV is obtained with higher scaling coupled cluster methods; small disagreements with experiment are likely due to vibrational effects.