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NASA NTRS2011

Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, and Fungal Disease Emergence and Spread

Empirical evidence from multiple sources show the Earth has been warming since the late 19th century. More recently, evidence for this warming trend is strongly supported by satellite data since the late 1970s from the cryosphere, atmosphere, oceans, and land that confirms increasing temperature trends and their consequences (e.g., reduced Arctic sea ice, rising sea level, ice sheet mass loss, etc.). At the same time, satellite observations of the Sun show remarkably stable solar cycles since the late 1970s, when direct observations of the Sun's total solar irradiance began. Numerical simulation models, driven in part by assimilated satellite data, suggest that future-warming trends will lead to not only a warmer planet, but also a wetter and drier climate depending upon location in a fashion consistent with large-scale atmospheric processes. Continued global warming poses new opportunities for the emergence and spread of fungal disease, as climate systems change at regional and global scales, and as animal and plant species move into new niches. Our contribution to this proceedings is organized thus: First, we review empirical evidence for a warming Earth. Second, we show the Sun is not responsible for the observed warming. Third, we review numerical simulation modeling results that project these trends into the future, describing the projected abiotic environment of our planet in the next 40 to 50 years. Fourth, we illustrate how Rift Valley fever outbreaks have been linked to climate, enabling a better understanding of the dynamics of these diseases, and how this has led to the development of an operational predictive outbreak model for this disease in Africa. Fifth, We project how this experience may be applicable to predicting outbreaks of fungal pathogens in a warming world. Lastly, we describe an example of changing species ranges due to climate change, resulting from recent warming in the Andes and associated glacier melt that has enabled amphibians to colonize higher elevation lakes, only to be followed shortly by the emergence of fungal disease in the new habitats.

Tucker, Compton J.↗

NASA NTRS2018

GEOS-CF Model Assessment of PM2.5 During Wildfires: Inferring the Impact of PM2.5 Exposure on Adverse Respiratory & Cardiovascular Conditions

Exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) can aggravate pre-existing respiratory and cardiovascular conditions. When PM2.5 is inhaled it can cause damage to the lungs such as reduced lung function and shortness of breath. After being inhaled PM2.5 can enter the bloodstream and cause harm to the heart. One major natural source of PM2.5 exposure is from wildfire smoke. The particulates within the smoke from the wildfires can spread from the initial source region, potentially impacting communities both near and far. During and after wildfire events, PM2.5 levels can exceed the WHO air quality guidelines (10 gm^3 annual mean; 25 gm^3 daily mean), becoming hazardous to an individual's health. Global models can be used to simulate the emission and transport of these particulates and subsequently they can be valuable to air quality forecasting in highly polluted areas. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) version 5 Composition Forecast (GEOS-CF) system has been used to produce near-real time air quality forecasts of atmospheric composition at a high global resolution of 25 km. The GEOS-CF system utilizes the GEOS weather forecast model coupled with GEOS-Chem (version 11) chemistry module to provide analyses and forecasts of various toxic air pollutants, including PM2.5. The GEOS-CF simulated high levels of PM2.5 (40 gm^3 to 250 gm^3 ), exceeding the WHO guidelines, during multiple recent regional and global wildfire seasons, including the 2017 Seattle, WA and Los Angeles, CA wildfire seasons, and biomass burning events in India. Furthermore, the GEOS-CF simulated PM2.5 applied to a human health assessment model, BenMAP (The Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program, version 1.3), estimates the impact on adverse respiratory health conditions due to PM2.5 exposure from wildfires. The GEOS-CF predicted PM2.5 during the wildfire season with the corresponding BenMAP results provides an assessment of the human health impact of PM2.5 exposure.

Saunders, Emily↗

NASA NTRS1984

The p-wave upper mantle structure beneath an active spreading centre - The Gulf of California

Over 1400 seismograms of earthquakes in Mexico are analyzed and data sets for the travel time, apparent phase velocity, and relative amplitude information are utilized to produce a tightly constrained, detailed model for depths to 900 km beneath an active oceanic ridge region, the Gulf of California. The data are combined by first inverting the travel times, perturbing that model to fit the p-delta data, and then performing trial and error synthetic seismogram modelling to fit the short-period waveforms. The final model satisfies all three data sets. The ridge model is similar to existing upper mantle models for shield, tectonic-continental, and arc-trench regimes below 400 km, but differs significantly in the upper 350 km. Ridge model velocities are very low in this depth range; the model 'catches up' with the others with a very large velocity gradient from 225 to 390 km.

Walck, M. C.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Hybrid Reynolds-Averaged/Large-Eddy Simulations of a Co-Axial Supersonic Free-Jet Experiment

Reynolds-averaged and hybrid Reynolds-averaged/large-eddy simulations have been applied to a supersonic coaxial jet flow experiment. The experiment utilized either helium or argon as the inner jet nozzle fluid, and the outer jet nozzle fluid consisted of laboratory air. The inner and outer nozzles were designed and operated to produce nearly pressure-matched Mach 1.8 flow conditions at the jet exit. The purpose of the computational effort was to assess the state-of-the-art for each modeling approach, and to use the hybrid Reynolds-averaged/large-eddy simulations to gather insight into the deficiencies of the Reynolds-averaged closure models. The Reynolds-averaged simulations displayed a strong sensitivity to choice of turbulent Schmidt number. The baseline value chosen for this parameter resulted in an over-prediction of the mixing layer spreading rate for the helium case, but the opposite trend was noted when argon was used as the injectant. A larger turbulent Schmidt number greatly improved the comparison of the results with measurements for the helium simulations, but variations in the Schmidt number did not improve the argon comparisons. The hybrid simulation results showed the same trends as the baseline Reynolds-averaged predictions. The primary reason conjectured for the discrepancy between the hybrid simulation results and the measurements centered around issues related to the transition from a Reynolds-averaged state to one with resolved turbulent content. Improvements to the inflow conditions are suggested as a remedy to this dilemma. Comparisons between resolved second-order turbulence statistics and their modeled Reynolds-averaged counterparts were also performed.

Baurle, R. A.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Investigation of the starting transients of high performance solid-propellant motors

The starting transients of solid propellant engines were investigated to develop design principles for predicting transients in high performance igniter and engine configurations. Research and diagnosis were conducted on the processes affecting ignition transients, such as heat flux, igniter, flame spreading over the surface, and nonsteady combustion gas dynamics. Abstracts of published reports related to this research are presented. Topics discussed include: development of an analytical model, analytical prediction of the entire ignition transient, transient behavior of pressure and regression rate during reignition after shut-down, and problems associated with restarting hybrid rocket engines.

Summerfield, M.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Assessment of space sensors for ocean pollution monitoring

Several passive and active microwave, as well as passive optical remote sensors, applicable to the monitoring of oil spills and waste discharges at sea, are considered. The discussed types of measurements relate to: (1) spatial distribution and properties of the pollutant, and (2) oceanic parameters needed to predict the movement of the pollutants and their impact upon land. The sensors, operating from satellite platforms at 700-900 km altitudes, are found to be useful in mapping the spread of oil in major oil spills and in addition, can be effective in producing wind and ocean parameters as inputs to oil trajectory and dispersion models. These capabilities can be used in countermeasures.

Alvarado, U. R.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Some effects of global dust storms on the atmospheric circulation of Mars

A zonally symmetric primitive equation modelled on a sphere is used to numerically simulate the Martian atmosphere's response to various dust loads, as well as the ability of its meridional circulation to transport dust globally, where the circulation is driven by heating due to the absorption of solar and IR radiation by dust and CO2, in addition to sensible heat exchange with the ground. A preliminary experiment shows the model distribution of winds and temperature to compare favorably with zonally averaged values from a general circulation model. Experiments simulating the evolution of global dust storms show that dust is effectively transported by the zonal mean circulation, which rapidly intensifies as the dust spreads, and that the basic structure of the circulation is relatively insensitive to details, being mostly dependent on the heating of the tropical and subtropical atmosphere.

Haberle, R. M.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Formation of Y(x)Nd(1-x) Ba2Cu3O(7-delta) (0 = or < x < or = 0.7) Superconductors from an Undercooled Melt Via Aero-Acoustic Levitation

Melt processing of RE123 superconductors has gained importance in recent years. While the first high temperature superconductors (HTSCs) were made using traditional ceramic press and sinter technology, recent fabrication efforts have employed alternate processing techniques including laser ablation and ion beam assisted deposition for thin film fabrication of tapes and wires and melt growth for bulk materials. To optimize these techniques and identify other potential processing strategies, phase relation studies on HTSCs have been conducted on a wide variety of superconducting compounds using numerous processing strategies. This data has enhanced the understanding of these complex systems and allowed more accurate modeling of phase interactions. All of this research has proved useful in identifying processing capabilities for HTSCs but has failed to achieve a breakthrough for wide spread application of these materials. This study examines the role of full to partial substitution of Nd in the Y123 structure under rapid solidification conditions. Aero-acoustic levitation (AAL) was used to levitate and undercool RE123 in pure oxygen binary alloys with RE = Nd an Y along a range of compositions corresponding to Y(x)Nd(1-x) Ba2Cu3O(7-delta) (0 = or < x < or = 0.7) which were melted by a CO2 laser. Higher Y content spheres could not be melted in the AAL and were excluded from this report. Solidification structures were examined using scanning electron microscopy, electron dispersive spectroscopy, and powder x-ray diffraction to characterize microstructures and identify phases.

Gustafson, D. E.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analysis of Heat Transfer from Local Heating and Cooling Sources at Cryogenic Temperatures

Understanding the dispersion of heat around a cryogenic fluid tank, specifically the interaction between the cryogenic fluid and the tank wall is critical in the analysis of long duration cryogen storage in microgravity. The heat transfer interaction between a cryogenic storage tank and heat sources from external spacecraft structures is also one of the many factors that determine how much heat enters a tank. Recent flight experiments with two-phase fluids have indicated that local concentrations of heat input (also known as “hot spots”) can cause unwanted affects including local boiling. Computational fluid dynamic (CFD) models can provide a detailed assessment of the heat transfer occurring across a cryogenic storage system. However, CFD modeling takes time to construct and run. A simpler approach that can act as initial guidance for later CFD modeling analyzes external “hot spots” as point or finite heat sources. A radial, finite element network or a local direct solution can effectively estimate the heat spread across a cryogenic storage tank by calculating the temperature and heat load as a function of distance from the heat source. This calculation accounts for the convective heat transfer between the cryogenic fluid and storage tank surface. Similar approaches can be used to determine the effectiveness of cooling from a cryocooler as a finite, local heat sink. This approach allows for quick approximations of the thermal map across a cryogenic tank as well as sensitivity analysis under a wide range of design parameters including gravitational fields as implied through natural convection coefficients.

Cryogenic Fluid Management↗

NASA NTRS2023

JWST NIRCam Defocused Imaging Photometric Stability Performance and How It Can Sense Mirror Tilts

We use JWST NIRCam short-wavelength photometry to capture a transit lightcurve of the exoplanet HAT-P-14 b to assess performance as part of instrument commissioning. The short-wavelength precision is 152 ppm per 27 s integration as measured over the full time series compared to a theoretical limit of 107 ppm, after corrections to spatially correlated 1/f noise. Persistence effects from charge trapping are well fit by an exponential function with short characteristic timescales, settling on the order of 5–15 minutes. The short-wavelength defocused photometry is also uniquely well suited to measure the real-time wave-front error of JWST. Analysis of the images and reconstructed wave-front maps indicates that two different hexagonal primary mirror segments exhibited “tilt events,” where they changed orientation rapidly in less than ∼1.4 s. In some cases, the magnitude and timing of the flux jumps caused by tilt events can be accurately predicted with a telescope model. These tilt events can be sensed by simultaneous longer-wavelength NIRCam grism spectral images alone in the form of changes to the point-spread function, diagnosed from the full width at half maximum. They can also be sensed with the fine guidance sensor instrument from difference images. Tilt events possibly from sudden releases of stress in the backplane structure behind the mirrors were expected during the commissioning period because they were found in ground-based testing. Tilt events have shown signs of decreasing in frequency but have not disappeared completely. The detectors exhibit some minor (less than 1%) deviations from linear behavior in the first few groups of each integration, potentially impacting absolute fluxes and transit depths on bright targets, where only a handful of groups are possible. Overall, the noise is within 50% of the theoretical photon noise and read noise. This bodes well for high-precision measurements of transiting exoplanets and other time variable targets.

Everett Schlawin↗

NASA NTRS2015

Computational Process Modeling for Additive Manufacturing (OSU)

Powder-Bed Additive Manufacturing (AM) through Direct Metal Laser Sintering (DMLS) or Selective Laser Melting (SLM) is being used by NASA and the Aerospace industry to "print" parts that traditionally are very complex, high cost, or long schedule lead items. The process spreads a thin layer of metal powder over a build platform, then melts the powder in a series of welds in a desired shape. The next layer of powder is applied, and the process is repeated until layer-by-layer, a very complex part can be built. This reduces cost and schedule by eliminating very complex tooling and processes traditionally used in aerospace component manufacturing. To use the process to print end-use items, NASA seeks to understand SLM material well enough to develop a method of qualifying parts for space flight operation. Traditionally, a new material process takes many years and high investment to generate statistical databases and experiential knowledge, but computational modeling can truncate the schedule and cost -many experiments can be run quickly in a model, which would take years and a high material cost to run empirically. This project seeks to optimize material build parameters with reduced time and cost through modeling.

Bagg, Stacey↗

NASA NTRS2014

Turbulent Concentration of MM-Size Particles in the Protoplanetary Nebula: Scaled-Dependent Multiplier Functions

The initial accretion of primitive bodies (asteroids and TNOs) from freely-floating nebula particles remains problematic. Here we focus on the asteroids where constituent particle (read "chondrule") sizes are observationally known; similar arguments will hold for TNOs, but the constituent particles in those regions will be smaller, or will be fluffy aggregates, and are unobserved. Traditional growth-bysticking models encounter a formidable "meter-size barrier" [1] (or even a mm-cm-size barrier [2]) in turbulent nebulae, while nonturbulent nebulae form large asteroids too quickly to explain long spreads in formation times, or the dearth of melted asteroids [3]. Even if growth by sticking could somehow breach the meter size barrier, other obstacles are encountered through the 1-10km size range [4]. Another clue regarding planetesimal formation is an apparent 100km diameter peak in the pre-depletion, pre-erosion mass distribution of asteroids [5]; scenarios leading directly from independent nebula particulates to this size, which avoid the problematic m-km size range, could be called "leapfrog" scenarios [6-8]. The leapfrog scenario we have studied in detail involves formation of dense clumps of aerodynamically selected, typically mm-size particles in turbulence, which can under certain conditions shrink inexorably on 100-1000 orbit timescales and form 10-100km diameter sandpile planetesimals. The typical sizes of planetesimals and the rate of their formation [7,8] are determined by a statistical model with properties inferred from large numerical simulations of turbulence [9]. Nebula turbulence can be described by its Reynolds number Re = L/eta sup(4/3), where L = ETA alpha sup (1/2) the largest eddy scale, H is the nebula gas vertical scale height, and α the nebula turbulent viscosity parameter, and η is the Kolmogorov or smallest scale in turbulence (typically about 1km), with eddy turnover time tη. In the nebula, Re is far larger than any numerical simulation can handle, so some physical model is needed to extend the results of numerical simulations to nebula conditions.

protoplanetary nebula↗

NASA NTRS1989

Clotho Tessera, Venus: A fragment of Fortuna Tessera

Clotho Tessera, adjacent to southeast Lakshmi Planum, may provide additional evidence for lateral crustal motions, and a model for the origin of small tessera fragments. Clotho Tessera and Lakshmi Planum are so noticeably different, and in such close proximity, it is difficult to derive a reasonable model of their formation in situ. Squeezing of material out from beneath Lakshmi has been suggested as an origin for Moira Tessera, which is also adjacent to Lakshmi and 1400 km west of Clotho. However, a logical model of juxtaposition of the two different terrains, originally from points once distant, can be made for Clotho and Lakshmi (and perhaps other small tesserae as well). It is suggested that Clotho Tessera was once part of Fortuna Tessera, but was cut off by a transcurrent fault zone (the DLZ) striking perpendicular to the Sigrun rift and carried westward where it collided with Lakshmi Planum (forming Danu Montes). A gravity anomaly along the southern border of Lakshmi, in the area of Danu Montes, was interpreted as indicating subduction there, providing additional supporting evidence for the collision hypothesis. Diffusion of the DLZ with proximity to Sigrun Fossae may be due to either higher ductility near the postulated Sigrun rift, or to burial by flows away from the rift nearer to Valkyrie Fossae. Other possible examples of migrating tesserae occur elsewhere: small pieces of Ananke Tessera can be fit back together as though they had rifted apart, and the spreading apart of Ananke and Virilis Tesserae has been suggested because of their symmetric locations about the axis of an inferred spreading zone. Other tessera fragments appear to have been isolated by rifting, with little, if any, significant lateral motion (e.g., Meni and Tellus Tesserae, and Thethus and Fortuna Tesserae). The migrating terrain model for Clotho Tessera supports Sukhanov's interpretation of tesseral fragments as rafts of lighter crustal material.

Kozak, Richard C.↗

NASA NTRS2024

Increasing Contribution of the Atmospheric Vertical Motion to Precipitation in a Warming Climate

Global warming already influences precipitation, with more intense precipitation in many locations. Although the ‘wet-get-wetter, dry-get-drier’ tendency in mean precipitation holds in many locations, the situations for precipitation extremes are more complex, due to changes in dynamic and thermodynamic influences on atmospheric moisture distributions. Here, we build a dynamically interactive atmospheric moisture model for the present (2006–2025) and the future climate (2081–2100), using outputs from coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models. We find that the dynamic process of vertical advection of moisture dominates the same-day precipitation, while the smaller impact of the thermodynamic process provides available moisture for several days. As climate warms, we find that the dynamical-induced precipitation more completely exhausts the vertically-integrated moisture and the distribution of the dynamic process’s impact on precipitation exhibits a greater spread in the warmer future. The dynamical process is primarily responsible for more extreme heavy precipitation as climate warms, at all latitudes.

Climate and Earth system modelling↗

NASA NTRS2023

Comparison of Clouds and Cloud Feedback between AMIP5 and AMIP6

We examine the changes in clouds and cloud feedback between Phase 5 (AMIP5) and Phase 6 (AMIP6) of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. Each model is perturbed by uniformly increasing the sea surface temperature by 4 K. The simulated cloud fraction, the perturbed states and cloud radiative kernels are used to derive cloud feedback in the shortwave (SW), longwave (LW) and their sum (Net). Compared to AMIP5, the cloud fraction in AMIP6 increases by 9.1%, while the perturbation leads to a 0.25% decrease. The Net cloud feedback at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) is almost double (174%). Statistical tests support that this change is mainly due to an increase in the surface SW cloud feedback caused by optically thick, middle and low clouds. The contribution of the atmospheric Net component (12%) stems from the increase in the atmospheric LW cloud feedback, likely to play a role in weakening (strengthening) the northward (southward) meridional atmospheric energy transport, while the opposite is true for the surface LW and Net cloud feedback in the meridional oceanic energy transport. The substantial increase in cloud feedback at the TOA primarily contributes to the higher climate sensitivity. The cloud feedback spread in AMIP6 is comparable to that in AMIP5.

Clouds↗

NASA NTRS1999

Tracks to therapy

Studies of the structure of particle tracks have led to models of track effects based on radial dose and radiobiological target theory that have been very successful in describing and predicting track effects in physical, chemical, and biological systems. For describing mammalian cellular inactivation two inactivation modes are required, called gamma-kill and ion-kill, the first due to synergistic effects of delta rays from adjacent ion paths thus resembling the effects from gamma rays, and the second to the effects of single ion transits through a cell nucleus. The ion-kill effect is more severe, where the fraction of cells experiencing ion kill is responsible for a decrease in the oxygen enhancement ratio, and an increase in relative biological effectiveness, but these are accompanied by loss of repair, hence to a reduction in the efficiency of fractionation in high LET therapy, as shown by our calculations for radiobiological effects in the "spread out Bragg Peak".

Review, Tutorial↗

NASA NTRS2018

Impact of August 2017 British Columbia Pyrocumulonimbus Injection Events on Lower Stratospheric Composition

On August 12-13, 2017 large wildfires in the Cariboo region of British Columbia, Canada sparked a series of pyrocumulonimbus events lifting carbonaceous aerosol and other trace gases to the tropopause region (~10-11 km). Over the subsequent days, this plume of trace gas and aerosol species was observed from numerous NASA satellite instruments to rise to over 22 km due to the strong shortwave heating of the carbonaceous aerosol. We will show observations of CO and H2O from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) instrument on Aura satellite demonstrating the clear rise and spread of the plume which can be coherently tracked for at least 2 months. Enhancements in HCN, CH3CN, and methanol (CH3OH) are also evident in MLS measurements with the former two having low vertical resolution. We have also detected a significantly lower concentration of O3 and HNO3 in the plume compared to the surrounding environment, which is consistent with a dynamical perturbation from the rapid diabatic rise of the heated plume from the tropopause through the lower stratosphere. In the weeks and months that followed this plume spread over much of the Northern Hemisphere and the aerosol was observed to be slowly removed by transport back into the troposphere. We will compare and contrast the Aug. 2017 event with the other large event in the MLS record, the Feb. 2009 Australian "Black Saturday" event, and use the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM) replayed to observed meteorology to understand the effect of the British Columbia event on trace gas species. GEOSCCM helps us to separate the relative roles of dynamics and chemistry on lower stratospheric trace gas composition changes, not only in the rising plume but also the impact of its eventual spread over the Northern Hemisphere during fall and winter of 2017-2018.

Oman, Luke D.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Kinematic principles of primate rotational vestibulo-ocular reflex. II. Gravity-dependent modulation of primary eye position

The kinematic constraints of three-dimensional eye positions were investigated in rhesus monkeys during passive head and body rotations relative to gravity. We studied fast and slow phase components of the vestibulo-ocular reflex (VOR) elicited by constant-velocity yaw rotations and sinusoidal oscillations about an earth-horizontal axis. We found that the spatial orientation of both fast and slow phase eye positions could be described locally by a planar surface with torsional variation of <2.0 +/- 0.4 degrees (displacement planes) that systematically rotated and/or shifted relative to Listing's plane. In supine/prone positions, displacement planes pitched forward/backward; in left/right ear-down positions, displacement planes were parallel shifted along the positive/negative torsional axis. Dynamically changing primary eye positions were computed from displacement planes. Torsional and vertical components of primary eye position modulated as a sinusoidal function of head orientation in space. The torsional component was maximal in ear-down positions and approximately zero in supine/prone orientations. The opposite was observed for the vertical component. Modulation of the horizontal component of primary eye position exhibited a more complex dependence. In contrast to the torsional component, which was relatively independent of rotational speed, modulation of the vertical and horizontal components of primary position depended strongly on the speed of head rotation (i.e., on the frequency of oscillation of the gravity vector component): the faster the head rotated relative to gravity, the larger was the modulation. Corresponding results were obtained when a model based on a sinusoidal dependence of instantaneous displacement planes (and primary eye position) on head orientation relative to gravity was fitted to VOR fast phase positions. When VOR fast phase positions were expressed relative to primary eye position estimated from the model fits, they were confined approximately to a single plane with a small torsional standard deviation ( approximately 1.4-2.6 degrees). This reduced torsional variation was in contrast to the large torsional spread (well >10-15 degrees ) of fast phase positions when expressed relative to Listing's plane. We conclude that primary eye position depends dynamically on head orientation relative to space rather than being fixed to the head. It defines a gravity-dependent coordinate system relative to which the torsional variability of eye positions is minimized even when the head is moved passively and vestibulo-ocular reflexes are evoked. In this general sense, Listing's law is preserved with respect to an otolith-controlled reference system that is defined dynamically by gravity.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗