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At least 667 records · Page 37

Development of an open-source regional data assimilation system in PEcAn v. 1.7.2: application to carbon cycle reanalysis across the contiguous US using SIPNET

Abstract. The ability to monitor, understand, and predict the dynamics of the terrestrial carbon cycle requires the capacity to robustly and coherently synthesize multiple streams of information that each provide partial information about different pools and fluxes. In this study, we introduce a new terrestrial carbon cycle data assimilation system, built on the PEcAn model–data eco-informatics system, and its application for the development of a proof-of-concept carbon “reanalysis” product that harmonizes carbon pools (leaf, wood, soil) and fluxes (GPP, Ra, Rh, NEE) across the contiguous United States from 1986–2019. We first calibrated this system against plant trait and flux tower net ecosystem exchange (NEE) using a novel emulated hierarchical Bayesian approach. Next, we extended the Tobit–Wishart ensemble filter (TWEnF) state data assimilation (SDA) framework, a generalization of the common ensemble Kalman filter which accounts for censored data and provides a fully Bayesian estimate of model process error, to a regional-scale system with a calibrated localization. Combined with additional workflows for propagating parameter, initial condition, and driver uncertainty, this represents the most complete and robust uncertainty accounting available for terrestrial carbon models. Our initial reanalysis was run on an irregular grid of ∼ 500 points selected using a stratified sampling method to efficiently capture environmental heterogeneity. Remotely sensed observations of aboveground biomass (Landsat LandTrendr) and leaf area index (LAI) (MODIS MOD15) were sequentially assimilated into the SIPNET model. Reanalysis soil carbon, which was indirectly constrained based on modeled covariances, showed general agreement with SoilGrids, an independent soil carbon data product. Reanalysis NEE, which was constrained based on posterior ensemble weights, also showed good agreement with eddy flux tower NEE and reduced root mean square error (RMSE) compared to the calibrated forecast. Ultimately, PEcAn's new open-source regional data assimilation framework provides a scalable workflow for harmonizing multiple data constraints and providing a uniform synthetic platform for carbon monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) as well as accelerating terrestrial carbon cycle research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Combining different 3-D global and regional seismic wave propagation solvers towards box tomography in the deep Earth

SUMMARY In previous publications, we presented a general framework, which we called ‘box tomography’, that allows the coupling of any two different numerical seismic wave propagation solvers, respectively outside and inside a target region, or ‘box’. The goal of such hybrid wavefield computations is to reduce the cost of computations in the context of full-waveform inversion for structure within the target region, when sources and/or receivers are located at large distances from the box. Previously, we had demonstrated this approach with sources and receivers outside the target region in a 2-D acoustic spherical earth model, and demonstrated and applied this methodology in the 3-D spherical elastic Earth in a continental scale inversion in which all stations were inside the target region. Here we extend the implementation of the approach to the case of a 3-D global elastic earth model in the case where both sources and stations are outside the box. We couple a global 3-D solver, SPECFEM3D_GLOBE, for the computation of the wavefield and Green’s functions in a reference 3-D model, with a regional 3-D solver, RegSEM, for the computation of the wavefield within the box, by means of time-reversal mirrors. We briefly review key theoretical aspects, showing in particular how only the displacement is needed to be stored at the boundary of the box. We provide details of the practical implementation, including the geometrical design of the mirrors, how we deal with different sizes of meshes in the two solvers, and how we address memory-saving through the use of B-spline compression of the recorded wavefield on the mirror. The proposed approach is numerically efficient but also versatile, since adapting it to other solvers is straightforward and does not require any changes in the solver codes themselves, as long as the displacement can be recovered at any point in time and space. We present benchmarks of the hybrid computations against direct computations of the wavefield between a source and an array of stations in a realistic geometry centred in the Yellowstone region, with and without a hypothetical plume within the ‘box’, and with a 1-D or a 3-D background model, down to a period of 20 s. The ultimate goal of this development is for applications in the context of imaging of remote target regions in the deep mantle, such as, for example, Ultra Low Velocity Zones.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Kimberlina 1.2 CCUS Geophysical Models and Synthetic Data Sets

This synthetic multi-scale and multi-physics data set was produced in collaboration with teams at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, National Energy Technology Laboratory, Los Alamos National Laboratory, and Colorado School of Mines through the Science-informed Machine Learning for Accelerating Real-Time Decisions in Subsurface Applications (SMART) Initiative. Data are associated with the following publication: Alumbaugh, D., Gasperikova, E., Crandall, D., Commer, M., Feng, S., Harbert, W., Li, Y., Lin, Y., and Samarasinghe, S., “The Kimberlina Synthetic Geophysical Model and Data Set for CO2 Monitoring Investigations”, The Geoscience Data Journal, 2023, DOI: 10.1002/gdj3.191. The dataset uses the Kimberlina 1.2 CO2 reservoir flow model simulations based on a hypothetical CO2 storage site in California (Birkholzer et al., 2011; Wainwright et al., 2013). Geophysical properties models (P- and S-wave seismic velocities, saturated density, and electrical resistivity) were produced with an approach similar to that of Yang et al. (2019) and Gasperikova et al. (2022) for 100 Kimberlina 1.2 reservoir models. Links to individual resources are provided below: [CO2 Saturation Models](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-co2-saturation-models); Resistivity Models – [part 1](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-resistivity-models-part-1), [part 2](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-resistivity-models-part-2), and [part 3](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-resistivity-models-part-3); [Vp Velocity Models](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-vp-velocity-models); [Vs Velocity Models](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-vs-velocity-models); [Density Models](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-density-models). The 3D distributions of geophysical properties for the 33 time stamps of the SIM001 model were used to generate synthetic seismic, gravity, and electromagnetic (EM) responses for 33 times between zero and 200 years. Synthetic surface seismic data were generated using 2D and 3D finite-difference codes that simulate the acoustic wave equation (Moczo et al., 2007). 2D data were simulated for six point-pressure sources along a 2D line with 10 m receiver spacing and a time spacing of 0.0005 s. 3D simulations were completed for 25 surface pressure sources using a source separation of 1 km in both the x and y directions and a time spacing of 0.001 s. Links to individual resources are provided below: [2D velocity models](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-2d-velocity-models) and [2D surface seismic data](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-2d-surface-seismic-data). [3D velocity models](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-velocity-models), and 3D seismic data [year0](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year0), [year1](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year1), [year2](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year2), [year5](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year5), [year10](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year10), [year15](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year15), [year20](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year20), [year25](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year25), [year30](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year30), [year35](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year35), [year40](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year40), [year45](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year45), [year49](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year49), [year50](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year50), [year51](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year51), [year52](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year52), [year55](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year55), [year60](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year60), [year65](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year65), [year70](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year70), [year75](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year75), [year80](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year80), [year85](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year85), [year90](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year90), [year95](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year95), [year100](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year100), [year110](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year110), [year120](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year120), [year130](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year130), [year140](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year140), [year150](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year150), [year175](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year175), [year200](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-seismic-data-year200). The Python scripts to read these models and data are provided [here](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-python-scripts). EM simulations used a borehole-to-surface survey configuration, with the source located near the reservoir level and receivers on the surface using the code developed by Commer and Newman (2008). Pseudo-2D data for the source at [2500 m](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-pseudo-2d-csem-data-tz2500m) and [3025 m](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-pseudo-2d-csem-data-tz3025m), used a 2D inline receiver configuration to simulate a response over 3D resistivity models. The [3D data](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-3d-csem-data) contain electric fields generated by borehole sources at monitoring well locations and measured over a surface receiver grid. Vector gravity data, both on the surface and in boreholes, were simulated using a modeling code developed by Rim and Li (2015). The simulation scenarios were parallel to those used for the EM: [pseudo-2D data](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-gravity-data) were calculated along the same lines and within the same boreholes, and [3D data](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-gravity-data) were simulated over 3D models on the surface and in three monitoring wells. A series of [synthetic well logs](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-well-logs) of CO2 saturation, acoustic velocity, density, and induction resistivity in the injection well and three monitoring wells are also provided at 0, 1, 2, 5, 10, 15, and 20 years after the initiation of injection. These were constructed by combining the low-frequency trend of the geophysical models with the high-frequency variations of actual well logs collected in the Kimberlina 1 well that was drilled at the proposed site. Measurements of permeability and pore connectivity were made on cores of Vedder Sandstone, which forms the primary reservoir unit: [CT micro scans](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-ct-micro-scans-of-vedder-formation) and [Industrial CT Images](https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/kimberlina-1-2-ccus-geophysical-models-and-synthetic-data-sets-industrial-ct-images-vedder-formation). These measurements provide the range of scales in the otherwise synthetic data set to be as close to a real-world situation as possible. References: Birkholzer, J.T., Zhou, Q., Cortis, A. and Finsterle, S., 2011. A sensitivity study on regional pressure buildup from large-scale CO2 storage projects. Energy Procedia, 4, 4371-4378. Commer, M., and Newman, G.A., 2008. New advances in three-dimensional controlled-source electromagnetic inversion, Geophysical Journal International, 172, 513-535. Gasperikova, E., Appriou, D., Bonneville, A., Feng, Z., Huang, L., Gao, K., Yang, X., Daley, T., 2022, Sensitivity of geophysical techniques for monitoring secondary CO2 storage plumes, Int. J. Greenh. Gas Control, Volume 114, 103585, ISSN 1750-5836, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2022.103585. Moczo, P., J.O. Robertsson and L. Eisner, 2007, The finite-difference time-domain method for modeling of seismic wave propagation: Advances in geophysics, 48, 421-516. Rim, H., and Y. Li, 2015, Advantages of borehole vector gravity in density imaging, Geophysics, 80, G1-G13. Wainwright, H. M.; Finsterle, S.; Zhou, Q.; Birkholzer, J. T., 2013. Modeling the Performance of Large-Scale CO2 Storage Systems: A Comparison of Different Sensitivity Analysis Methods. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 17, 189205. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2013.05.007, DOI: 10.18141/1603331. Yang, X., Buscheck, T.A., Mansoor, K., Wang, Z., Gao, K., Huang, L., Appriou, D., and Carroll, S.A., 2019. Assessment of geophysical monitoring methods for detection of brine and CO2 leakage in drinking water aquifers, International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 90, 102803, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2019.102803.

CCUS↗

Numerical Simulations of an Unsteady Rocket Launch from the AH-64D Apache Longbow Helicopter

Rocket and missile firings from attack helicopters can cause main engine compressor stall. Studies of this phenomenon suggest that the main engine ingests either the plume from the rockets or the rocket blast waves. This creates surges at the inlet face, causing a loss of power in the main engine. The objective of this project is to set-up a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation of the AH-64D Apache Longbow helicopter during a rocket launch, in order to qualitatively study the fluid dynamics of the problem. This project presents a progression of three unsteady Navier-Stokes solutions. The first unsteady solution involves only a rocket launch from its launch canister. The second solution is a launch from a canister mounted on the Apache's wing-pylon assembly. The last solution includes the Apache main engine and fuselage. The computations use a series of structured, overset grid systems, which allow for a rocket moving in a prescribed path. The method implements a Roe upwind scheme with LU-SGS (lower-upper factored symmetric Gauss-Seidel). A rotor pressure disk model approximates the helicopter rotor, while the rocket engine exit properties are applied as a prescribed boundary condition. Although the project is only at the half-way point, the first and second CFD simulations suggest the possibility of pressure wave interference. Sudden surges in pressure occur from two sources: at rocket start-up, and as the rocket leaves the canister. Wave patterns set-up by these sources appear to propagate to the location of the engine inlet. However the simplified geometry simulation with the main engine needs to be performed before coming to a conclusion.

Okamoto, Kevin↗

Constraining the charge-, time-, and rigidity-dependence of cosmic-ray solar modulation with AMS-02 observations during Solar Cycle 24

Our basic theoretical understanding of the sources of cosmic rays and their propagation through the interstellar medium is hindered by the Sun, that through the solar wind affects the observed cosmic-ray spectra. This effect is known as solar modulation. Recently released cosmic-ray observations from the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS-02) and publicly available measurements of the solar wind properties from the Advanced Composition Explorer and the Wilcox observatory allow us to test the analytical modeling of the time-, charge- and rigidity-dependence of solar modulation. We rely on associating measurements on the local heliospheric magnetic field and the heliospheric current sheet’s tilt angle, to model the time-dependence and amplitude of cosmic-ray solar modulation. We find evidence for the solar modulation’s charge- and rigidity-dependence during the era of solar cycle 24. Our analytic prescription to model solar modulation can explain well the large-scale time evolution of positively charged cosmic-ray fluxes in the range of rigidities from 1 GV to 10 GV. Here, we also find that cosmic-ray electron fluxes measured during the first years of cycle 24 are less trivial to explain, due to the complex and rapidly evolving structure of the heliosphere’s magnetic field that they experienced as they propagated inwards.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Deep learning-assisted modeling for χ (2) nonlinear optics

Modeling second-order (χ(2)) nonlinear optical processes remains computationally expensive due to the need to resolve fast field oscillations and simulate wave propagation using methods such as the split-step Fourier method (SSFM). This can become a bottleneck in real-time applications, such as high-repetition-rate laser systems requiring rapid feedback and control. We present a long short-term memory-based surrogate model trained on SSFM simulations generated from a start-to-end model of the photocathode drive laser at SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory’s Linac Coherent Light Source II. The model achieves over 250× speedup while maintaining high fidelity, enabling future real-time optimization and laying the foundation for data-integrated modeling frameworks and digital twins of laser systems.

Accelerator Physics (physics.acc-ph)↗

Development of a dynamically adaptive grid method for multidimensional problems

An approach to solution adaptive grid generation for use with finite difference techniques, previously demonstrated on model problems in one space dimension, has been extended to multidimensional problems. The method is based on the popular elliptic steady grid generators, but is 'dynamically' adaptive in the sense that a grid is maintained at all times satisfying the steady grid law driven by a solution-dependent source term. Testing has been carried out on Burgers' equation in one and two space dimensions. Results appear encouraging both for inviscid wave propagation cases and viscous boundary layer cases, suggesting that application to practical flow problems is now possible. In the course of the work, obstacles relating to grid correction, smoothing of the solution, and elliptic equation solvers have been largely overcome. Concern remains, however, about grid skewness, boundary layer resolution and the need for implicit integration methods. Also, the method in 3-D is expected to be very demanding of computer resources.

Holcomb, J. E.↗

The acoustic field of a point source in a uniform boundary layer over an impedance plane

The acoustic field of a point source in a boundary layer above an impedance plane is investigated anatytically using Obukhov quasi-potential functions, extending the normal-mode theory of Chunchuzov (1984) to account for the effects of finite ground-plane impedance and source height. The solution is found to be asymptotic to the surface-wave term studies by Wenzel (1974) in the limit of vanishing wind speed, suggesting that normal-mode theory can be used to model the effects of an atmospheric boundary layer on infrasonic sound radiation. Model predictions are derived for noise-generation data obtained by Willshire (1985) at the Medicine Bow wind-turbine facility. Long-range downwind propagation is found to behave as a cylindrical wave, with attention proportional to the wind speed, the boundary-layer displacement thickness, the real part of the ground admittance, and the square of the frequency.

Zorumski, W. E.↗

Lava flows as kinematic waves

A recently proposed model for the emplacement of lava flows is reinterpreted as a kinematic wave theory for the depth of the flow. Explicit kinematic wave solutions and their properties are derived for three time-dependent boundary conditions of practical interest. These boundary conditions correspond to effusion rates that decrease, increase, and crest and broadly reflect types of eruption behavior documented in the geologic literature. Particular attention is given to the way source behavior propagates along the flow in relation to the advance of the flow itself.

Baloga, Stephen↗

The Impact of Electromagnetic Cascades of Very-high Energy Gamma Rays on the Extragalactic Gamma-ray Background

As very high energy (VHE) photons propagate through the extragalactic background light (EBL), they interact with the soft photons of the EBL and initiate electromagnetic cascades of photons and electrons. The collective intensity of a cosmological population emitting at VHEs (such as blazars) will be attenuated at the highest energies through interactions with the EBL and enhanced at lower energies by the resulting cascade. As such, depending on the space density and spectra of the sources and the model of the EBL, cascade radiation can provide a significant contribution to the extragalactic gamma-ray background (EGB). Through deflections of the charged particles of the cascade, an intergalactic magnetic field (IGMF) may leave an imprint on the anisotropy properties of the EGB. The impact of a strong IGMF is to isotropize lower energy cascade photons, inducing a modulation in the anisotropy energy spectrum of the EGB. We discuss the implications of cascade radiation for the origins of the EGB and the nature of the IGMF, as well as insight that will be provided by data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope in the upcoming years.

Venters, Tonia↗

Characterizing Baselines and Change in Gas Hydrate Systems using EM Methods

The objective of this project was to advance our understanding of gas hydrate systems in nature by characterizing their electrical properties in the field and in the laboratory. In the laboratory measurements, methane hydrate was synthesized from pure water ice and flash frozen seawater, with varying amounts of sand or silt added. Electrical conductivity was determined by impedance spectroscopy, using equivalent circuit modeling to separate the effects of electrodes and to gain insight into conduction mechanisms. Silt and sand increase the conductivity of pure hydrate, inferred to be contaminant NaCl contributing to conduction in hydrate, to a peak conductivity in agreement with peak resistivities observed in well logs through massive hydrate (3,000--10,000 Ωm). The addition of silt and sand lowers the conductivity of hydrate synthesized from seawater, by an amount consistent with Archie's Law. All samples were characterized using cryogenic scanning electron microscopy and energy dispersive spectroscopy, which shows good connectivity of salt and brine phases. Electrical conductivity measurements of pure hydrate and hydrate mixed with silt during pressure-induced dissociation supports previous conclusions that sediment increases dissociation rate. In order to characterize gas hydrate systems in the field, we collected 360 line kilometers of controlled-source electromagnetic data on Walker Ridge 313, Orca Basin (WR100), Mad Dog (GC781), and Green Canyon 955 in the Gulf of Mexico, all areas with known or seismically inferred gas hydrate deposits and which have be drilled or targeted for future drilling. We deep-towed an EM transmitter that generates an alternating electric field which propagates through the seafloor geology. Data were recorded on 6 receivers towed behind the transmitter at distances between 550 and 1550 m. In the presence of conductive geology, the electric fields will be attenuated, and conversely, in resistive geology the fields will be preserved. Our data were inverted using a 2D inversion method that first optimizes the model-data misfit, then finds the smoothest model fitting the data. This ensures that resistivity structures present in the final model are likely necessary. At each of the proposed drilling sites we found increased resistivity, interpreted as increased hydrate concentrations. However, not only were the primary drilling sites not always more resistive than the alternate sites, at WR313 the strongest resistors were not at the locations targeted for drilling.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Hierarchical Testing of a Hybrid Machine Learning‐Physics Global Atmosphere Model

Machine learning (ML)-based models have demonstrated high skill and computational efficiency, often outperforming conventional physics-based models in weather and subseasonal predictions. While prior studies have assessed their fidelity in capturing synoptic-scale atmospheric dynamics, their performance across timescales and under out-of-distribution forcing, such as +3K or +4K uniform-warming forcings, and the sources of biases remain elusive, to establish the model's reliability for Earth science. Here, we design three sets of experiments targeting synoptic-scale phenomena, interannual variability, and out-of-distribution uniform-warming forcings. We evaluate the Neural General Circulation Model (NeuralGCM), a hybrid model integrating a dynamical core with ML-based component, against observations and physics-based Earth system models (ESMs). At the synoptic scale, NeuralGCM captures the evolution and propagation of extratropical cyclones with performance comparable to ESMs. At the interannual scale, when forced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, NeuralGCM successfully reproduces associated teleconnection patterns but exhibits deficiencies in capturing nonlinear response. Under out-of-distribution uniform-warming forcings, NeuralGCM simulates similar responses in global-average temperature and precipitation and reproduces large-scale tropospheric circulation features similar to those in ESMs. Notable weaknesses include overestimating the tracks and spatial extent of extratropical cyclones, biases in the teleconnected wave train triggered by tropical SST anomalies, and differences in upper-level warming and stratospheric circulation responses to SST warming compared to physics-based ESMs. The causes of these weaknesses were explored. Despite the noted weaknesses, NeuralGCM reproduces responses across experiments reasonably and performs comparably to ESMs. By integrating a dynamical core with ML, NeuralGCM shows potential for developing ML-based ESMs.

global warming↗

Revisiting GeV-scale annihilating dark matter with the AMS-02 positron fraction

Antimatter cosmic-rays are used to probe new phenomena in physics, including dark matter annihilation. Here, we use the cosmic-ray positron fraction spectrum by the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer, to search for such an annihilation signal in the Galaxy. We focus on dark matter with mass between 5 and 120 GeV, producing high-energy electrons and positrons. In these cosmic-ray energies the interplay of multiple astrophysical sources and phenomena, makes this search highly sensitive to the underlying astrophysical background assumptions. We use a vast public library of astrophysical models for the cosmic-ray positron fraction background, to derive robust upper limits on the dark matter's annihilation cross section for a number of annihilation channels. This library accounts for different types of cosmic-ray sources and uncertainties on their distribution in space and time. Also, it accounts for uncertainties on those sources' output, their injected into the interstellar medium cosmic-ray spectra and for uncertainties on cosmic-ray propagation. For any given dark matter particle mass and annihilation channel, upper limits on the annihilation cross section are given by bands that stretch a full order of magnitude in its value. Our work provides weaker limits compared to earlier results, that are however robust to all the relevant astrophysical uncertainties. Between 5 and 15 GeV, we find indications for a possible excess flux of cosmic-ray electrons and positrons. That excess is found for most, but not all of our astrophysical background parameter space, and its significance can vary appreciably. Further scrutiny is necessary to improve the understanding of these lower energy cosmic rays. Finally, we note that even if an excess signal is found in these energies, the current background uncertainties do not allow us to accurately deduce its underlying particle properties.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Initiation and Carbene Induced Radical Chain Reactions in CH 2 F 2 Pyrolysis

High temperature dissociations of organic molecules typically involve a competition between radical and molecular processes. In this work, we use a modeling, experiment, theory (MET) framework to characterize the high temperature thermal dissociation of CH 2 F 2 , a flammable hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) that finds widespread use as a refrigerant. Initiation in CH 2 F 2 proceeds via a molecular elimination channel; CH 2 F 2 →CHF+HF. Here we show that the subsequent self-reactions of the singlet carbene, CHF, are fast multichannel processes and a facile source of radicals that initiate rapid chain propagation reactions. These have a marked influence on the decomposition kinetics of CH 2 F 2 . The inclusion of these reactions brings the simulations into better agreement with the present and literature experiments. Additionally, flame simulations indicate that inclusion of the CHF+CHF multichannel reaction leads to a noticeable enhancement in predictions of laminar flame speeds, a key parameter that is used to determine the flammability of a refrigerant.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Importance of Considering Near-Surface Attenuation in Earthquake Source Parameter Estimation: Insights from Kappa at a Dense Array in Oklahoma

ABSTRACT Separating earthquake source spectra from propagation effects is challenging. The propagation effect contains a site-dependent term related to the high attenuation of shallow sediments. Neglecting the site-dependent attenuation can cause large biases and scattering in the corner-frequency (fc) estimates, resulting in significant stress-drop deviations. In this study, we investigate shallow attenuation at the LArge-n Seismic Survey in Oklahoma (LASSO) and site-related biases and scattering in source parameter measurements due to simplified attenuation models. We measure the high-frequency spectral decay parameter kappa on the vertical acceleration spectra of regional earthquakes (125 km away). The site-dependent kappa (κ0,acc) suggests that attenuation increases rapidly at shallow depth and is highly site-dependent. 10%–75% of the attenuation is site-dependent for S waves and even larger for P waves. The quality factor for S waves (QS) ranges from 10 to 100 in the upper 400 m. QP for P waves is mostly below 10 within the same depth. The Quaternary sediments tend to be more attenuating (QS<30), but the Permian rocks also can have high attenuation. We demonstrate that using a non-site-dependent attenuation model in single-spectra fitting leads to large scattering in fc estimates among stations with apparent good fits. The apparent fc can significantly deviate when the range of site-dependent kappa is large or with a higher assumed source spectral fall-off rate n. The biases in apparent fc depend on site condition and distance; however, the correlation between fc and these factors might not be obvious, depending on model assumptions. An apparent increase of stress drop with magnitude in a previous study for local microearthquakes (1.3

Chang, Hilary↗

The double oval UV auroral distribution. 2: The most poleward arc system and the dynamics of the magnetotail

The poleward arc system of a double oval distribution is shown to activate at the end of the optical expansion phase signifying the beginning of substorm recovery. The velocity dispersed ion signature (VDIS) can exist coincident with this discrete aurora developing on the most poleward oval. Although the VDIS is usually associated with ion beams in the plasma sheet boundary layer, it is demonstrated that the ionospheric signature is not beamlike but distributed in pitch angle. At the time when the double oval begins to form, the magnetic field in the magnetotail lobe becomes less flared and can show Pc 5 period oscillations. Similar pulsations also exist in the ionosphere associated with the most poleward oval and with stationary surge formation. Theoretical considerations link this phenomenon with a wave source tailward of x(sub GSE) = -30R(sub E) and fast mode evanescent waves propagating earthward in the tail lobe region. In this case the magnetotail appears to act like a waveguide and the plasma sheet boundary layer as a resonance region. This implies that the coupling of this fast mode waves is with the plasma sheet boundary layer and not with dipolar like field lines. The implications of this for the reconnection model of substorms are discussed.

Elphinstone, R. D.↗

Boby-Vortex Interaction, Sound Generation and Destructive Interference

It is generally recognized that interaction of vortices with downstream blades is a major source of noise production. To analyze this problem numerically, a two-dimensional model of inviscid flow together with the method of matched asymptotic expansions is proposed. The method of matched asymptotic expansions is used to match the inner region of incompressible flow to the outer region of compressible flow. Because of incompressibility, relatively simple numerical methods are available to treat multiple vortices and multiple bodies of arbitrary shape. Disturbances from vortices and bodies propagate outward as sound waves. Due to their interactions, either constructive or destructive interference may result. When it is destructive, the combined sound intensity can be reduced, sometimes substantially. In addition, an analytical solution to sound generation by the cascade-vonex interaction is given.

Kao, Hsiao C.↗

Design of the Next Generation Aircraft Noise Prediction Program: ANOPP2

The requirements, constraints, and design of NASA's next generation Aircraft NOise Prediction Program (ANOPP2) are introduced. Similar to its predecessor (ANOPP), ANOPP2 provides the U.S. Government with an independent aircraft system noise prediction capability that can be used as a stand-alone program or within larger trade studies that include performance, emissions, and fuel burn. The ANOPP2 framework is designed to facilitate the combination of acoustic approaches of varying fidelity for the analysis of noise from conventional and unconventional aircraft. ANOPP2 integrates noise prediction and propagation methods, including those found in ANOPP, into a unified system that is compatible for use within general aircraft analysis software. The design of the system is described in terms of its functionality and capability to perform predictions accounting for distributed sources, installation effects, and propagation through a non-uniform atmosphere including refraction and the influence of terrain. The philosophy of mixed fidelity noise prediction through the use of nested Ffowcs Williams and Hawkings surfaces is presented and specific issues associated with its implementation are identified. Demonstrations for a conventional twin-aisle and an unconventional hybrid wing body aircraft configuration are presented to show the feasibility and capabilities of the system. Isolated model-scale jet noise predictions are also presented using high-fidelity and reduced order models, further demonstrating ANOPP2's ability to provide predictions for model-scale test configurations.

Lopes, Leonard V., Dr.↗