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At least 667 records · Page 37
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Geospatial assessment of the economic opportunity for reforestation in Maryland, USA

Afforestation and reforestation have the potential to provide effective climate mitigation through forest carbon sequestration. Strategic reforestation activities, which account for both carbon sequestration potential (CSP) and economic opportunity, can provide attractive options for policymakers who must manage competing social and environmental goals. In particular, forest carbon pricing can incentivize reforestation on private land, but this may require landholders to forego other profits. Here, we utilize an ambitious geospatial approach to quantify economic opportunities for reforestation in the state of Maryland (USA) based on high-resolution remoting sensing, ecosystem modeling, and economic analysis. Our results identify spatially-explicit areas of economic opportunity where the potential revenue from forest carbon outcompetes the expected profit of existing cropland at the hectare scale. Specifically, we find that under a baseline economic scenario of 20 dollars per ton of carbon (5% rental rate) and decadal average crop profitability, a transition to forest on agricultural land would be more profitable than 23.2% of cropland in Maryland under a 20-year land-use commitment. Accounting for variations in carbon and crop pricing, 5.5% to 55.4% of cropland would be immediately outcompeted by expected forest carbon revenue, with the potential for an additional 0.5% to 10.6% of outcompeted cropland within 20 years. Under the baseline economic scenario, an annual allocation of $5.8 million towards a carbon rental program could protect 6.93 Tg C (2.2% of the state’s total CSP) on reforested croplands. This moderate yearly cost is equal to 9.7% of Maryland’s average annual auction proceeds from participation in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (between 2014-2018), and 19.3% of the average annual subsidy payments for corn, soy, and wheat allocated over the same period. This methodological approach may be useful for state governments, not-for-profit organizations, or regional climate initiatives interested in identifying strategic areas for reforestation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Photocatalytic Biocidal Coatings Featuring Zr 6 Ti 4 -Based Metal–Organic Frameworks

The world is currently suffering socially, economically, and politically from the recent pandemic outbreak due to the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), and those in hospitals, schools, and elderly nursing homes face enhanced threats. Healthcare textiles, such as masks and medical staff gowns, are susceptible to contamination of various pathogenic microorganisms, including bacteria and viruses. Here, metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) can potentially address these challenges due to their tunable reactivity and ability to be incorporated as porous coatings on textile materials. Here, we report how incorporating titanium into the zirconium-pyrene-based MOF NU-1000, denoted as NU-1012, generates a highly reactive biocidal photocatalyst. This MOF features a rare ligand migration phenomenon, and both the Ti/Zr center and the pyrene linker act synergistically as dual active centers and widen the absorption band for this material that results in enhanced reactive oxygen species (ROS) generation upon visible light irradiation. Additionally, we found the ligand migration process is generally applicable to other csq topology Zr-MOFs. Importantly, NU-1012 can be easily incorporated onto cotton textile cloths as a coating, and the resulting composite material demonstrates fast and potent biocidal activity against Gram-negative bacteria (E. coli), Gram-positive bacteria (S. epidermidis), and T7 bacteriophage virus with up to a 7-log (99.99999%) reduction within one hour under simulated daylight.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Short-wavelength-sensitive 2 (Sws2) visual photopigment models combined with atomistic molecular simulations to predict spectral peaks of absorbance

For many species, vision is one of the most important sensory modalities for mediating essential tasks that include navigation, predation and foraging, predator avoidance, and numerous social behaviors. The vertebrate visual process begins when photons of the light interact with rod and cone photoreceptors that are present in the neural retina. Vertebrate visual photopigments are housed within these photoreceptor cells and are sensitive to a wide range of wavelengths that peak within the light spectrum, the latter of which is a function of the type of chromophore used and how it interacts with specific amino acid residues found within the opsin protein sequence. Minor differences in the amino acid sequences of the opsins are known to lead to large differences in the spectral peak of absorbance (i.e. the λ max value). In our prior studies, we developed a new approach that combined homology modeling and molecular dynamics simulations to gather structural information associated with chromophore conformation, then used it to generate statistical models for the accurate prediction of λ max values for photopigments derived from Rh1 and Rh2 amino acid sequences. In the present study, we test our novel approach to predict the λ max of phylogenetically distant Sws2 cone opsins. To build a model that can predict the λ max using our approach presented in our prior studies, we selected a spectrally-diverse set of 11 teleost Sws2 photopigments for which both amino acid sequence information and experimentally measured λ max values are known. The final first-order regression model, consisting of three terms associated with chromophore conformation, was sufficient to predict the λ max of Sws2 photopigments with high accuracy. This study further highlights the breadth of our approach in reliably predicting λ max values of Sws2 cone photopigments, evolutionary-more distant from template bovine RH1, and provided mechanistic insights into the role of known spectral tuning sites.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Grand Challenges of Hydrologic Modeling for Food-Energy-Water Nexus Security in High Mountain Asia

Climate-influenced changes in hydrology affect water-food-energy security that may impact up to two billion people downstream of the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region. Changes in water supply affect energy, industry, transportation, and ecosystems (agriculture, fisheries) and as a result, also affect the region's social, environmental, and economic fabrics. Sustaining the highly interconnected food-energy-water nexus (FEWN) will be a fundamental and increasing challenge under a changing climate regime. High variability in topography and distribution of glaciated and snow-covered areas in the HMA region, and scarcity of high resolution (in-situ) data make it difficult to model and project climate change impacts on individual watersheds. We lack basic understanding of the spatial and temporal variations in climate, surface impurities in snow and ice such as black carbon and dust that alter surface albedo, and glacier mass balance and dynamics. These knowledge gaps create challenges in predicting where and when the impact of changes in river flow will be the most significant economically and ecologically. In response to these challenges, the United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) established the High Mountain Asia Team (HiMAT) in 2016 to conduct research to address knowledge gaps. This paper summarizes some of the advances HiMAT made over the past 5 years, highlights the scientific challenges in improving our understanding of the hydrology of the HMA region, and introduces an integrated assessment framework to assess the impacts of climate changes on the FEWN for the HMA region. The framework, developed under a NASA HMA project, links climate models, hydrology, hydropower, fish biology, and economic analysis. The framework could be applied to develop scientific understanding of spatio-temporal variability in water availability and the resultant downstream impacts on the FEWN to support water resource management under a changing climate regime.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

An editorial to the Special Issue on “Severe climate Risks”

The history of this Special Issue (https://www.sciencedirect.com/special-issue/10JD7LNJNQ0) indirectly dates back to the early 1990s, when the signature of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change kicked-off an international political process based on one overarching and foundational principle: to avoid “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” at the global level. More than three decades later, such a principle remains central, though complementary aims made their way through the climate negotiation process, such as the importance of ensuring equity and justice, to give just one example here. Scientific knowledge also considerably progressed and we know more about the range of risks that climate change imposes and will continue to impose to the biosphere and humankind, worldwide and at all territorial levels. It is also clear that societal responses to these risks —“climate adaptation” as we know it— are increasingly happening, but definitely not at the pace of climate risk trends (Berrang-Ford et al., 2021, Erisken et al., 2021, Olazabal and Ruiz De Gopegui, 2021, Magnan et al., 2023a, Reckien et al., 2023, UNEP, 2023). As a result, concerns have emerged over the recent years in both the scientific and policy arenas around the idea that societies may not be able to address all climate risks, and that limits to adaptation and induced residual risks need to be considered more seriously. Such concerns further highlight the continuing importance of the imperative to minimise dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system, at any scale. But what does “dangerous interference” mean? How can we decide that we are entering the “dangerous” space, compared to a broader range of climate risks that would qualify as problematic but not necessarily “dangerous”? Who should make such a decision? Which conditions drive risk severity over time, including in the future? And what would be the environmental, economic, social and cultural implications of prioritising some climate risks over others? The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was a pioneer in addressing such questions through the development of the “Key Risks” framing that describes those climate risks having the potential to become dangerous or “severe” over the course of this century (Schellnhuber et al., 2006, Schneider et al., 2007, Oppenheimer et al., 2014, O’Neill et al., 2022). The Fifth and Sixth assessment cycles (AR5 and AR6) went a step further by identifying about 120 Key Risks across regions and sectors, and clustering them into 8 “Representative Key Risks” covering a range of geographical systems (low-lying coasts, and to terrestrial and ocean ecosystems), sectors (critical infrastructure, living standards, human health, food security, and water security) and human dimensions (peace and mobility) (Oppenheimer et al., 2014, O’Neill et al., 2022). This Special Issue was born of the efforts of a range of authors, during the development of the IPCC AR6 main Assessment Report between 2019 and 2022, to characterise Key Risks and Representative Key Risks, and advance knowledge on what shapes “severe climate risks” conceptually as well as in the real-world. The series of papers forming this Special Issue is not intended to cover the topic exhaustively, but rather to give readers an overview through the following narrative: defining “severe climate risks” is highly challenging (Magnan et al., 2023b), but knowledge is expanding on the driving climate hazards (Tebaldi et al., 2023) and their implications on geographical systems, sectors and human dimensions, using here food security (Mirzabaev et al., 2023), human mobility (Gilmore et al., 2024) and peace (Buhaug et al., 2023) as illustrative examples. The overall intention is to support especially decision-makers, whatever the scale or sector considered, in asking severity-driven questions to identify sector- and context-specific “priority” risks from climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Using mixed methods to construct and analyze a participatory agent-based model of a complex Zimbabwean agro-pastoral system

Complex social-ecological systems can be difficult to study and manage. Simulation models can facilitate exploration of system behavior under novel conditions, and participatory modeling can involve stakeholders in developing appropriate management processes. Participatory modeling already typically involves qualitative structural validation of models with stakeholders, but with increased data and more sophisticated models, quantitative behavioral validation may be possible as well. In this study, we created a novel agent-basedmodel applied to a specific context: Zimbabwean non-governmental organization the Muonde Trust has been collecting data on their agro-pastoral system for the last 35 years and had concerns about land-use planning and the effectiveness of management interventions in the face of climate change. We collaboratively created an agent-based model of their system using their data archive, qualitatively calibrating it to the observed behavior of the real system without tuning any parameters to match specific quantitative outputs. We then behaviorally validated the model using quantitative community-based data and conducted a sensitivity analysis to determine the relative impact of underlying parameter assumptions, Indigenous management interventions, and different rainfall variation scenarios. We found that our process resulted in a model which was successfully structurally validated and sufficiently realistic to be useful for Muonde researchers as a discussion tool. The model was inconsistently behaviorally validated, however, with some model variables matching field data better than others. We observed increased model system instability due to increasing variability in underlying drivers (rainfall), and also due to management interventions that broke feedbacks between the components of the system. Interventions that smoothed year-to-year variation rather than exaggerating it tended to improve sustainability. The Muonde trust has used the model to successfully advocate to local leaders for changes in land-use planning policy that will increase the sustainability of their system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Intervening alcohol marketing to reduce harmful alcohol use and lessons learned from the theory of changes: Case studies in Thailand

Objectives Globally, the burden of disease caused by alcohol use has been steadily increasing, including in Thailand. In this study, we aim to test the effectiveness of Anderson et al.‘s suggested three approaches to change the collective social norms, which comprise of: (1) providing information and an understanding about alcohol use behaviour, its causes and distribution; (2) focusing strategies on groups rather than individuals; and (3) strengthening supportive laws, regulations and approaches. Study design We employed a mixed-methods approach. Evidence was gathered from literature review and in-depth interviews with key individuals who are responsible for community-based interventions to alcohol marketing strategies in Thailand. Methods We chose to focus on two case studies in Nan and Surin provinces, where hospital-based longitudinal data (8 years) were available. Changes in casualties related to the harmful use of alcohol, resulting from interactions between community-based interventions and alcohol marketing during the time of annual festivals were investigated. We employed the theory of change (ToC) defined by Vogel to guide the data collection and analysis. We reviewed literature from online databases and grey literature to generate causal-loop diagrams. Results We created a causal-loop diagram to describe the complexity of harmful alcohol use, its related factors, context, interventions and outcomes. Over the decade between 2006 and 2015, community-based strategies led to a substantial reduction of casualties (initially a 50% reduction, rising to an 80–90% reduction by the end of the study period) during the time of the festivals. Conclusions The reduction in injuries and fatalities could be a result of the concerted actions, including legal sanctions of alcohol beverage sales and advertisement, and public education to raise awareness and impart knowledge of the harmful use of alcohol. The actions were organised by a coalition of civil society, health professionals, public authorities and community leaders using hospital-based data on the adverse effects of harmful alcohol use to mobilise political support at the provincial level. The availability of long-term financial support as a catalytic source of funds and the presence of a comprehensive alcohol control act enabled framing and mobilisation of local resources and political support.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling protected species distributions and habitats to inform siting and management of pioneering ocean industries: A case study for Gulf of Mexico aquaculture

Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) provides a process that uses spatial data and models to evaluate environmental, social, economic, cultural, and management trade-offs when siting (i.e., strategically locating) ocean industries. Aquaculture is the fastest-growing food sector in the world. The United States (U.S.) has substantial opportunity for offshore aquaculture development given the size of its exclusive economic zone, habitat diversity, and variety of candidate species for cultivation. However, promising aquaculture areas overlap many protected species habitats. Aquaculture siting surveys, construction, operations, and decommissioning can alter protected species habitat and behavior. Additionally, aquaculture-associated vessel activity, underwater noise, and physical interactions between protected species and farms can increase the risk of injury and mortality. In 2020, the U.S. Gulf of Mexico was identified as one of the first regions to be evaluated for offshore aquaculture opportunities as directed by a Presidential Executive Order. We developed a transparent and repeatable method to identify aquaculture opportunity areas (AOAs) with the least conflict with protected species. First, we developed a generalized scoring approach for protected species that captures their vulnerability to adverse effects from anthropogenic activities using conservation status and demographic information. Next, we applied this approach to data layers for eight species listed under the Endangered Species Act, including five species of sea turtles, Rice’s whale, smalltooth sawfish, and giant manta ray. Next, we evaluated four methods for mathematically combining scores (i.e., Arithmetic mean, Geometric mean, Product, Lowest Scoring layer) to generate a combined protected species data layer. The Product approach provided the most logical ordering of, and the greatest contrast in, site suitability scores. Finally, we integrated the combined protected species data layer into a multi-criteria decision-making modeling framework for MSP. This process identified AOAs with reduced potential for protected species conflict. These modeling methods are transferable to other regions, to other sensitive or protected species, and for spatial planning for other ocean-uses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fire–precipitation interactions amplify the quasi-biennial variability in fires over southern Mexico and Central America

Fires have great ecological, social, and economic impact. However, fire prediction and management remain challenges due to a limited understanding of their roles in the Earth system. Fires over southern Mexico and Central America (SMCA) are a good example of this, greatly impacting local air quality and regional climate. Here we report that the spring peak (April–May) of fire activities in this region has a distinct quasi-biennial signal based on multiple satellite datasets measuring different fire characteristics. The variability is initially driven by quasi-biennial variations in precipitation. Composite analysis indicates that strong fire years correspond to suppressed ascending motion and weakened precipitation over the SMCA. The anomalous precipitation over the SMCA is further found to be mostly related to the East Pacific–North Pacific (EP-NP) pattern 2 months prior to the fire season. The positive phase of the EP-NP leads to enhanced precipitation over the eastern US but suppressed precipitation over the SMCA, similar to the spatial pattern of precipitation differences between strong and weak fire years. Meanwhile, the quasi-biennial signals in precipitation and fires appear to be amplified by their interactions through a positive feedback loop at short timescales. Model simulations show that in strong fire years, more aerosol particles are released and transported downstream over the Gulf of Mexico and the eastern US, where suspended light-absorbing aerosols warm the atmosphere and cause the ascending motion of the air aloft. Subsequently, a compensating downward motion is formed over the region of the fire source and ultimately suppresses precipitation and intensifies fires. Statistical analysis shows the different durations of the two-way interaction, where the fire suppression effect of precipitation lasts for more than 20 d, while fire leads to a decrease in precipitation at shorter timescales (3–5 d). This study demonstrates the importance of fire–climate interactions in shaping the fire activities on an interannual scale and highlights how precipitation–fire interactions at short timescales contribute to the interannual variability in both fire and precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ecological Quality Evolution and Its Driving Factors in Yunnan Karst Rocky Desertification Areas

Rocky desertification is a key element affecting regional ecological quality. Rocky desertification in Southwest China directly affects the ecological security of the Yangtze River and Pearl River basins and also restricts regional economic and social development. In order to clarify the evolution laws and key influencing factors of ecological quality in Yunnan karst rocky desertification areas, a quantitative analysis based on the remote sensing-based ecological index (RSEI) model was conducted to explore the overall evolution characteristics and change laws of ecological quality in Yunnan karst rocky desertification areas in the past 30 years. The correlation between RSEI, rock outcrop rate (Fr), and driving factors was determined by redundancy analysis. The results showed the following: (1) RSEI in Yunnan karst rocky desertification areas generally showed a decreasing trend, with a fluctuation in the mid-term, followed by a tendency to recover. It fell into three stages: decline, trough, and recovery, with fitting coefficients of -0.121, -0.057, and 0.157, respectively. In contrast, Fr showed an opposite tendency, illustrating the inverse relationship between RSEI and Fr, and the rate of sequential succession was much faster than that of the reverse succession under human measures of intervention. (2) The mean value of RSEI of Yunnan karst rocky desertification areas was generally lower than that of the total Yunnan Province land areas and Yunnan non-karst rocky desertification areas, but the mean value of Fr was generally more than that of both the above-mentioned areas. In addition, the RSEI and Fr of Yunnan karst rocky desertification areas both showed lower stability values than those of both the above-mentioned areas. This generally suggested a low ecological quality and a high degree of desertification under a low stability in Yunnan karst rocky desertification areas. (3) The correlation of RSEI and Fr with driving factors followed the order of topographic factors, soil factors > water factors > anthropogenic factors. Anthropogenic factors were the driving force changing the state of rocky desertification, geological factors such as topography and soil to a larger extent determined the original macroscopic ecological relationship of rocky desertification, and water factors lay between the above two. The findings of this research will provide theoretical support and a basis for the improvement of ecological quality and comprehensive control of karst rocky desertification in Yunnan Province.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Safe Urban Harvests Study: A Community-Driven Cross-Sectional Assessment of Metals in Soil, Irrigation Water, and Produce from Urban Farms and Gardens in Baltimore, Maryland

BACKGROUND: Emerging evidence suggests social, health, environmental, and economic benefits of urban agriculture (UA). However, limited work has characterized the risks from metal contaminant exposures faced by urban growers and consumers of urban-grown produce. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to answer community-driven questions about the safety of UA and the consumption of urban-grown produce by measuring concentrations of nine metals in the soil, irrigation water, and urban-grown produce across urban farms and gardens in Baltimore, Maryland. METHODS: We measured concentrations of 6 nonessential [arsenic (As), barium (Ba), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), lead (Pb), nickel (Ni)] and three essential [copper (Cu), manganese (Mn), zinc (Zn)] metals in soil, irrigation water, and 13 types of urban-grown produce collected from 104 UA sites. We compared measured concentrations to existing public health guidelines and analyzed relationships between urban soil and produce concentrations. In the absence of guidelines for metals in produce, we compared metals concentrations in urban-grown produce with those in produce purchased from farmers markets and grocery stores (both conventionally grown and U.S. Department of Agriculture–certified organic). RESULTS: Mean concentrations of all measured metals in irrigation water were below public health guidelines. Mean concentrations of nonessential metals in growing area soils were below public health guidelines for Ba, Cd, Pb, and Ni and at or below background for As and Cr. Though we observed a few statistically significant differences in concentrations between urban and nonurban produce items for some combinations, no consistent or discernable patterns emerged. DISCUSSION: Screening soils for heavy metals is a critical best practice for urban growers. Given limitations in existing public health guidelines for metals in soil, irrigation water, and produce, additional exposure assessment is necessary to quantify potential human health risks associated with exposure to nonessential metals when engaging in UA and consuming urban-grown produce. Conversely, the potential health benefits of consuming essential metals in urban-grown produce also merit further research. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9431

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Toward a Climate OSSE Framework for Satellite Mission Design

The rich history of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) does not yet include a well-established framework for using climate models. The need for a climate OSSE is triggered by the need to quantify the value of a particular measurement for reducing the uncertainty in climate predictions, which differ from numerical weather predictions in that they depend on future atmospheric composition rather than the current state of the weather. However, both weather and climate modeling communities share a need for motivating major observing system investments. Here, we outline a new framework for climate OSSEs that leverages the use of machine learning to calibrate climate model physics against existing satellite data. We demonstrate its application using NASA’s GISS-E3 model to objectively quantify the value of potential future improvements in spaceborne measurements of Earth’s planetary boundary layer. A mature climate OSSE framework should be able to quantitatively compare the ability of proposed observing system architectures to answer a climate-related question, thus offering added value throughout the mission design process, which is subject to increasingly rapid advances in instrument and satellite technology. Technical considerations include selection of observational benchmarks and climate projection metrics, approaches to pinpoint the sources of model physics uncertainty that dominate uncertainty in projections, and the use of instrument simulators. Community and policy-making considerations include the potential to interface with an established culture of model intercomparison projects and a growing need to economically assess the value-driven efficiency of social spending on Earth observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comparison of removal and spatial mark‐resight models for estimating wild pig density

Density estimation is critical to effectively manage invasive species and elucidate areas of highest concern. For wild pigs (Sus scrofa), the ability to estimate density is complicated because of their variable home range sizes and social structure. Common methods for estimating density (e.g., mark-recapture) may be unsuitable in management applications because additional data needs to be collected before and after management. Removal models offer a suitable alternative to estimate density changes following management and can be applied broadly across areas where management of wild pigs is ongoing. We collected wild pig removal and camera trap data from 25 private properties ranging in size from approximately 0.5 km 2 to 95 km 2 across 3 ecoregions in South Carolina, USA, from 2020–2023. We compared factors affecting consistency and precision of property-level density estimates between removal and spatial mark-resight (SMR) models. In general, excluding 1 large outlier, density estimates from removal models were between 0.60 and 15.85 wild pigs/km 2 (median = 5.34) with a median coefficient of variation (CV) of 0.76 and 95% confidence intervals for the CV between 0.70 and 0.94. Similarly, excluding 1 large outlier, density estimates from SMR were between 0.22 and 30.97 wild pigs/km 2 (median = 5.48) with a median CV of 0.39 and 95% confidence intervals for the CV between 0.38 and 1.20. We found the precision of removal models was affected primarily by the number of wild pigs dispatched in the removal period (3 months) and the ecoregion in which they were removed. None of the covariates, including the number of recaptures (a corresponding measure of sample size), influenced precision of the SMR models, although recaptures did influence the density estimates. At the individual property level, density estimates from our 2 estimators were dissimilar from each other in approximately 80% of instances, although none of the covariates we examined influenced dissimilarity. Our results provide unique insight into how sample size affects density estimates using 2 common methods and into novel SMR models that incorporate both marked and unmarked detections. In addition, the density estimates in this study can be used as a reference for wild pig densities in common land cover types throughout the southeastern United States.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Simultaneous x-ray and neutron 4D tomographic study of drying-driven hydro-mechanical behavior of cement-based materials at moderate temperatures

The drying of cement-based materials is intimately related to their durability, which has significant economic, social and environmental repercussions. The evolution of the saturation of the pore network and the associated drying shrinkage are in fact leading causes of cracking and of the ensuing penetration of aggressive chemicals. This process is highly heterogeneous, due to the thermo-hydric spatial gradients developing in the material from the exposed surfaces to its core and because of local effects, driven by the intrinsically heterogeneous micro-structure (e.g., by the distribution of pores and aggregates). It follows that macroscopic, sample-scale measurements cannot fully disclose the complexity of the underlying processes. In the last few decades, significant advances in full-field techniques have allowed an unprecedented insight into these local processes. For cement-based materials, x-ray and neutron tomography lend themselves as ideal, and highly complementary, tools for the study of their thermo-hydro-mechanical behavior. Notably, the high sensitivity to density variations of x-ray imaging gives access to the developments of fractures, in 4D (3D + time). On the other hand, neutron tomography allows the study of the evolution of the moisture field in 4D, thanks to its high hydrogen sensitivity. The combination of these two techniques provides a unique insight in thermo-hydro-mechanical couplings, e.g., the effect of cracks on the water content field. This contribution presents novel 5D datasets (3D tomographies along time, plus truly simultaneous x-ray and Neutron rapid acquisitions) in-operando of a cement paste and of a concrete sample heated at moderate temperatures (up to 140{sup ∘}C). The analysis of this 5D data-set (once aligned in time and across modalities) allows for example a quantification of the 4D moisture profiles which were found to predict an overall water loss at hydric equilibrium coherent with the corresponding analytical analysis. In the cement paste sample, the x-ray dataset captures the evolution of an extensive cracking network, opening and propagation toward the core of the sample. A novel analysis procedure is here proposed which allows the extraction of these fractures and the analysis of their interplay with local drying as captured through neutron imaging. This for example reveals the depth of penetration of drying in the vicinity of the fractures along time, which is essential for the assessment and calibration of hydro-mechanical coupled models.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mapathons versus automated feature extraction: a comparative analysis for strengthening immunization microplanning

Background: Social instability and logistical factors like the displacement of vulnerable populations, the difficulty of accessing these populations, and the lack of geographic information for hard-to-reach areas continue to serve as barriers to global essential immunizations (EI). Microplanning, a population-based, healthcare intervention planning method has begun to leverage geographic information system (GIS) technology and geospatial methods to improve the remote identification and mapping of vulnerable populations to ensure inclusion in outreach and immunization services, when feasible. We compare two methods of accomplishing a remote inventory of building locations to assess their accuracy and similarity to currently employed microplan line-lists in the study area. Methods: The outputs of a crowd-sourced digitization effort, or mapathon, were compared to those of a machine-learning algorithm for digitization, referred to as automatic feature extraction (AFE). The following accuracy assessments were employed to determine the performance of each feature generation method: (1) an agreement analysis of the two methods assessed the occurrence of matches across the two outputs, where agreements were labeled as “befriended” and disagreements as “lonely”; (2) true and false positive percentages of each method were calculated in comparison to satellite imagery; (3) counts of features generated from both the mapathon and AFE were statistically compared to the number of features listed in the microplan line-list for the study area; and (4) population estimates for both feature generation method were determined for every structure identified assuming a total of three households per compound, with each household averaging two adults and 5 children. Results: The mapathon and AFE outputs detected 92,713 and 53,150 features, respectively. A higher proportion (30%) of AFE features were befriended compared with befriended mapathon points (28%). The AFE had a higher true positive rate (90.5%) of identifying structures than the mapathon (84.5%). The difference in the average number of features identified per area between the microplan and mapathon points was larger (t = 3.56) than the microplan and AFE (t = -2.09) (alpha = 0.05). Conclusions: Our findings indicate AFE outputs had higher agreement (i.e., befriended), slightly higher likelihood of correctly identifying a structure, and were more similar to the local microplan line-lists than the mapathon outputs. These findings suggest AFE may be more accurate for identifying structures in high-resolution satellite imagery than mapathons. However, they both had their advantages and the ideal method would utilize both methods in tandem.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cancer Incidence Trends in Successive Social Generations in the US

Importance: The incidence of some cancers in the US is increasing in younger age groups, but underlying trends in cancer patterns by birth year remain unclear. Objective: To estimate cancer incidence trends in successive social generations. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this cohort study, incident invasive cancers were ascertained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program’s 13-registry database (November 2020 submission, accessed August 14, 2023). Invasive cancers diagnosed at ages 35 to 84 years during 1992 to 2018 within 152 strata were defined by cancer site, sex, and race and ethnicity. Exposure: Invasive cancer. Main Outcome and Measures: Stratum-specific semiparametric age-period-cohort (SAGE) models were fitted and incidence per 100 000 person-years at the reference age of 60 years was calculated for single-year birth cohorts from 1908 through 1983 (fitted cohort patterns [FCPs]). The FCPs and FCP incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were compared by site for Generation X (born between 1965 and 1980) and Baby Boomers (born between 1946 and 1964). Results: A total of 3.8 million individuals with invasive cancer (51.0% male; 8.6% Asian or Pacific Islander, 9.5% Hispanic, 10.4% non-Hispanic Black, and 71.5% non-Hispanic White) were included in the analysis. In Generation X vs Baby Boomers, FCP IRRs among women increased significantly for thyroid (2.76; 95% CI, 2.41-3.15), kidney (1.99; 95% CI, 1.70-2.32), rectal (1.84; 95% CI, 1.52-2.22), corpus uterine (1.75; 95% CI, 1.40-2.18), colon (1.56; 95% CI, 1.27-1.92), and pancreatic (1.39; 95% CI, 1.07-1.80) cancers; non-Hodgkins lymphoma (1.40; 95% CI, 1.08-1.82); and leukemia (1.27; 95% CI, 1.03-1.58). Among men, IRRs increased for thyroid (2.16; 95% CI, 1.87-2.50), kidney (2.14; 95% CI, 1.86-2.46), rectal (1.80; 95% CI, 1.52-2.12), colon (1.60; 95% CI, 1.32-1.94), and prostate (1.25; 95% CI, 1.03-1.52) cancers and leukemia (1.34; 95% CI, 1.08-1.66). Lung (IRR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.50-0.72) and cervical (IRR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.57-0.89) cancer incidence decreased among women, and lung (IRR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.43-0.60), liver (IRR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.63-0.91), and gallbladder (IRR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.72-1.00) cancer and non-Hodgkins lymphoma (IRR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.61-0.93) incidence decreased among men. For all cancers combined, FCPs were higher in Generation X than for Baby Boomers because gaining cancers numerically overtook falling cancers in all groups except Asian or Pacific Islander men. Conclusions and Relevance: In this model-based cohort analysis of incident invasive cancer in the general population, decreases in lung and cervical cancers in Generation X may be offset by gains at other sites. Generation X may be experiencing larger per-capita increases in the incidence of leading cancers than any prior generation born in 1908 through 1964. On current trajectories, cancer incidence could remain high for decades.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Summary Report of the Reactive CO 2 Capture: Process Integration for the New Carbon Economy Workshop

Decarbonization of our global economy is required to limit planetary warming to +1.5⁰C above pre-industrial levels, an ambitious goal set into motion by the Paris agreement. Given the scale and urgency, the solution demands international, cross-sector advancements spanning policy, social responsibility, and technology, with emphasis on step changes over incremental changes. To that end, technological revolutions that disrupt the status quo need to be envisioned and enacted. One potential technological revolution is the production of fuels, chemicals, and materials from carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) as the starting feedstock, leveraging renewable energy as the driving force. Over the past decades, significant research, development, and deployment has occurred on technologies for capturing CO 2 from point sources or the air and utilizing this CO 2 as a working fluid or as a chemical reactant; however, most of this work has been siloed in these two categories. Recently, an emerging field has started to explore the direct integration of CO 2 capture and conversion technologies as a means to reduce overall energy demand (i.e., avoid energy penalty of CO 2 desorption/regeneration of capture media) and capital expense through process intensification. This strategy represents an opportunity to leapfrog forward this technological revolution. However, the field is in its infancy and the technologies are at an early stage of development, thus it is critically important to define and assess the value proposition of this strategy relative to alternatives (e.g., separated capture and conversion technologies, fuels and chemicals derived from renewable feedstocks like biomass, and industrial electrification) to chart a path forward. To identify next steps, we organized a workshop titled “Reactive CO 2 Capture: Process Integration for the New Carbon Economy” which was held in Golden, Colorado, February 18–19, 2020. The focus of this workshop was to discuss approaches for merging CO 2 capture and CO 2 conversion/utilization systems into what we denoted as an integrated "reactive capture" strategy. By our definition, reactive capture of CO 2 is the coupled process of capturing CO 2 from a mixed gas stream and converting it into a valuable product without going through a purified CO 2 intermediate (see full definition in the Introduction section). This report seeks to summarize feedback from the approximately 125 participants and subject matter experts in attendance from academia, industry, U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and DOE national laboratories. The workshop agenda is included in Appendix A and the full list of attendees can be found in Appendix B. To elucidate a path forward, we first asked the attendees to define what success would look like for reactive capture in the short term (0–5 years), midterm (5–10 years), and long term (10+ years) and then asked them to answer four questions related to how we could achieve that success: (1) What are the key barriers and challenges to success? (2) What are needed activities to overcome barriers and challenges? (3) What opportunities will arise from these activities? (4) What is a target outcome and what metrics need to be met?

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dissecting the Shared Genetic Architecture of Suicide Attempt, Psychiatric Disorders, and Known Risk Factors

Suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide, and non-fatal suicide attempts, which occur far more frequently, are a major source of disability and social and economic burden. Both have substantial genetic etiology, which is partially shared and partially distinct from that of related psychiatric disorders. Methods: We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 29,782 suicide attempt (SA) cases and 519,961 controls in the International Suicide Genetics Consortium. The GWAS of SA was conditioned on psychiatric disorders using GWAS summary statistics via mtCOJO, to remove genetic effects on SA mediated by psychiatric disorders. We investigated the shared and divergent genetic architectures of SA, psychiatric disorders and other known risk factors. Results: Two loci reached genome-wide significance for SA: the major histocompatibility complex and an intergenic locus on chromosome 7, which remained associated with SA after conditioning on psychiatric disorders and replicated in an independent cohort from the Million Veteran Program. This locus has been implicated in risk-taking, smoking, and insomnia. SA showed strong genetic correlation with psychiatric disorders, particularly major depression, and also with smoking, pain, risk-taking, sleep disturbances, lower educational attainment, reproductive traits, lower socioeconomic status and poorer general health. After conditioning on psychiatric disorders, the genetic correlations between SA and psychiatric disorders decreased, whereas those with non-psychiatric traits remained largely unchanged. Conclusions: Our results identify a risk locus that contributes more strongly to SA than other phenotypes and suggest a shared underlying biology between SA and known risk factors that is not mediated by psychiatric disorders.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗